Grand National 2023

Covered End said:

Peanuts, I'm a bit surprised you were still talking about Dunboyne yesterday, when your "nap" on his possible success is based on the going being soft, when it's looking more likely good to soft and soft in places?
Luke Harvey is suggesting it's possibly on good side of good to soft.
(I don't wish to put you on the spot and realise it's in the lap of the God's in any case).

It's not going to be Soft so he's not my NAP. I did say yesterday that on GS it's Delta Work.
The Mildmay course is riding a fair bit quicker than anyone anticipated after the rain we had and the forecast for today and tomorrow has dried up since yesterday.
So it will probably be too quick for Dunboyne if the ground dries out further but that would bring Back On The Lash back into the equation.
Who knows what version of GS we'll have on Saturday but my projection of GS (Soft places) is now probably at most a 25% chance, dependent on them watering and then getting a Saturday pm drop of rain - not expected but it does sometimes happen when it's generally unsettled.  
We'll know a little more from the time that the Foxhunters clock.

You also can't tell what effect first time blinkers may have on him - it may help him stay in touch on ground that otherwise would be too quick.
I'm mindful of having put some people off Mon Mome in 2009 saying he was a soft ground horse (he was) but the way the race was run played into his hands and he romped home.
Ground preferences are a tricky one.

I timed winner of the Foxhunters at c.16 secs slow of std - that's pretty much genuine GS (no Soft or Gd places I would say)
Plenty of sunny intervals and a drying wind they'll surely be ready to water depending on the amount of any more rain tonight and tomorrow (only a few mm forecast at most and none on Saturday).  

Clerk of the course reported after racing today: "It has dried out through the day, as you would expect with the breeze and the sun. The jockeys said it was veering towards good by the end of the afternoon.

"So we are going to apply 4mm to 5mm of water to the whole course to maintain good to soft ground. There is the possibility of a shower overnight but not enough – or with enough reliability – to allow us to sit tight."

We’ll see how it rides in the Topham tomorrow but, unless there’s unexpected rain, watering probably won’t stop it drifting to the quicker side of GS by late pm Saturday.

Understandably, money coming for Back On The Lash (50/1 now only from Bet365, 40/1 Sky Bet 7 places, otherwise as short as 25/1) and not just from part owner Harry Redknapp.

Despite being O/H, he’s still nicely weighted vs Delta Work on his defeat of DW in the XC handicap in January and drying ground is perfect for him.

Galvin could go well on decent ground and Lifetime Ambition and Recite A Prayer are both Spring Ground horses, but BOTL is the only specific good ground lover that ticks all the model’s Golden boxes and has a GN-starred pedigree. To remind you:

• He has a rare array of Damsires. DS 1,2 and 3, all having offspring that won a G1 at 10f+. Only 27 runners in the GN 2013~22 had such an array and only 10 of these 27 (7 different horses) also had form in a 29f+ chase.
• Those 10 runners contributed 5 of 9 winners (Auroras Encore, Rule The World, One For Arthur, Tiger Roll x2), runner-up Cause of Causes and 5th Rare Bob. Only Minella Rocco ticked both boxes and flopped in his (only) GN run.
• Of all 2023 entries, only Back On The Lash ticks both of these boxes.

Mrs Molloy is not the only member of the family to like a rummage around the bargain basement and with the ground likely heading to the quick side of GS, I'm taking a close look at those horses (like Aurora's Encore) who perform appreciably better on Spring Ground but tend to be overlooked by the market because of moderate form over the winter. 

It's time to do so when bookies pay out on 6 places because there have been 6th placed horses that were near-missers as regards passing sufficient of the model's 11 tests to make it onto the team:

For my model's purposes, a "Spring Ground" horse has from mid-March to mid-May (excluding F,UR,BD) winning/near-missing or frame-making rate over fences from 4+ runs is 75%+ (or 100% from 3) and is at least x1.5 the rate in other months.

GN Winners/Near-missers that were Spring Ground horses:

• Aurora's Encore (Spring win/near-miss rate 83% from 7 vs 8.3% = x10)
• Tiger Roll 2019 (80% from 5 vs 46% = x1.7)
• Any Second Now 2022 (75% from 4 vs 36% = x2.1)

Placed horses that were demonstrably at their best on Spring Ground:

• Alvarado 2014 &2015
• Goonyella
• Anibale Fly
• Burrows Saint
• Farclas
• Delta Work

But here's the interesting bit.

Only 23 GN runners (6.4%) passed this Spring Ground test.

5 of them F or UR
3 won or near-missed
6 others placed first 5
3 finished 6th (Chance Du Roy, Royale Knight, Road To Riches)
2 finished 7th (Discorama, Freewheelin Dylan)

Only 4 of those 23 runners that were "Spring Ground" horses completed >7th or PU. In other words, excluding those that F or UR, the Spring Ground horses have a 67% strike rate of making the first 6 home and 78% strike rate for the first 7.

2023 Spring Ground horses:

• Any Second Now (16/1) - too much weight from model's perspective
• Delta Work (8/1) - rated Winning Calibre
• Lifetime Ambition (28/1) - too much weight
• Velvet Elvis (40/1) - rated Frame-Maker
• Recite A Prayer (100/1) - ??

Two of these are among the top 7 rated by the model and I've backed both.

But, from the bargain bin, I'm also going to have an interest in RECITE A PRAYER, who doesn't fail the test-screen by a country mile. He's an 8yo 2nd season chaser so is in the sweet spot from that perspective.

• His record over hurdles and fences March~May reads: 2121
• Over fences he is 100% wins/near-misses from 3 in Spring, compared to 33% in other months

I'm tempted to take the 100/1 e/w 6 places but I need to be realistic. He's very unlikely to win this or even go close, so that translates to 10/1 for finishing first 6.

Call me a boring old fart (as Mrs Molloy frequently does) but I'm going to play the %s and back him with a Bet365 Special at 8.00 (7/1) to finish in the Top 10.  

• In 17 races Under Rules, he has 0 F/UR and only 1 PU (on Soft ground in December carrying 11-10)
• Completed over the fences (47L 12th in the Becher Chase in December) 
• Willie Mullins endorsed him as a safe conveyance after the weights: "he ran around Aintree and is usually a very good jumper. He’s a horse that lots of lads will putting their hands up to ride."

BTW, pedigree does have some GN pluses:

• a Sire and Damsire that won a G1 at 10f+
• a nice helping of Wild Risk in his pedigree.
• 2nd Damsire Over The River sired or damsired several to make minor places in a GN.