A Wave Of The Sea has been nibbled at - into as short as 66 with some. However Paddy Power have him at 125/1 (6 places)
He is a shit or bust selection but, for reasons explained earlier, he's in the ballpark of having the right profile (Archetype 2 - unexposed, potentially progressive youngster) and does have some rare components to his damside pedigree that suggest he could cause one hell of a shock. My reading of that pedigree is that slower ground would provide his best chance.
Just a reminder from earlier posts of the key pedigree stats:
Of the 356 runners in the 9 GNs 2013~22:
1. 78 of them (21.9%) had a Damsire that had offspring (as sire or damsire) that had won a G1 at 10f+ on the flat AND a 2nd or 3rd Damsire that had either done likewise or had Damsired a GN 1st~4th.
That 21.9% contributed 7 of the 9 winners (77.8%) and another 3 of the 7 finishing <5L of them (62.5% of winners and near-missers). Indeed it accounted for 42.2% of all 1st~5th in those GNs. In other words, 1 in 4 of runners ticking this box made the frame (compared to a random distribution of 1 in 8)
Of this year's entries down to #60 at the weights, the following ticked this box:
The Big Dog
Capodanno
Coko Beach
Le Milos
Cape Gentleman
Roi Mage
A Wave Of The Sea
Minella Trump
Velvet Elvis
Ain't That A Shame
Mister Incredible
Mister Coffey
Ashtown Lad
Our Power
Dunboyne
Back On The Lash
2. 41 of the 356 GN runners 2013~22 (11.5%) had the genetically-electric combo on the damside of Wild Risk and Bold Ruler.
That 11.5% contributed 5 of the 9 winners (55.6%) and another 3 near-missers (50% of winners and near-missers). It accounted for 28.9% of all 1st~5th. Thus, 1 in 3 of them made the frame (again compared to 1 in 8, if outcomes were random).
Of this year's remaining entries down to #60 at the weights, the following ticked this box:
Conflated (probably to be scratched)
Delta Work
Lifetime Ambition
Coko Beach
Longhouse Poet
A Wave Of The Sea
Dunboyne
Combination. If we put these 2 stats together, just 13 of the 356 runners (only 9 different horses) 2013~22 ticked both boxes. They were:
2013: Tatenen - Fell at 12th fence 2016: Rule The World - Won 2017: One For Arthur - Won 2018: Tiger Roll - Won 2019: Tiger Roll - Won / Magic of Light - 2nd (2.75L) / One For Arthur - 6th / Rock The Kasbah - BD 2021: Minella Times - Won / Magic Of Light - UR 4th fence 2022: Fiddlerontheroof 5th / Minella Times - BD / Coko Beach - 8th
So, 13 runs produced 5 winners and 3 places. 5 of the 9 different horses ticking both boxes were a winner or near-misser.
Of this year's runners 3 tick both boxes:
Coko Beach (didn't get home last time and runs off 5lb higher GNOR this year)
A Wave Of The Sea (shit or bust - Minella Times or Tatenen)
Dunboyne (due to carry just 10-00, he's also by Yeats, who sired last year's GN winner Noble Yeats)
Will he take to the fences? Will he get the trip?
In short, we don't know but he is related to Cause of Causes, close 2nd in the 2017 GN 2017 and with a combo at wild prices on Betfair, I've happily got him on my team.
I have below two longshots from a while back on NRNB basis (another two didn't make it so money coming back)
Back on the lash A wave of the sea
And have also done the below reverse forecasts just in case Peanuts model is on fire !!!
Delta Work / Dunboyne Delta Work / Back on the lash Delta Work / A wave of the sea Dunboyne / Back on the lash Dunboyne / A wave of the sea Back on the lash / A wave of the sea
So basically, come on Back on the lash / A wave of the sea !!!!!
There are 5
runners that both match an Archetype and have the minimum requisite Pedigree
profile to Win or place <10L. Ranking them by strongest GN-starred Pedigree
Profile, they are:
Dunboyne[NAP on Soft, likely to be
outpaced if quickish GS] – Archetype 1
Delta Work [NAP on Good to Soft] – Archetype 3
Mr Incredible – Archetype 1
The
Big Breakaway – Archetype 3
Back On The Lash [must
have decent ground] – Archetype 3
And
2 that have an overall Profile consistent with placing 10~20L behind the
winner:
Gaillard
Du Mesnil – Archetype 1
Velvet Elvis – Archetype 1
And 1 that has the potential to smack gobs at 150/1 (6 places):
A Wave Of The Sea – narrow miss as Archetype 2 (3rd season chaser but only a 7yo) but
GN-starred damside pedigree
And the best of the rest:
- For the Irish – Any Second Now (narrow miss Archetype 3, strong Pedigree
profile)
- For the
Brits – Our Power (narrow miss Archetype 2, narrow miss Pedigree profile)
So @PeanutsMolloy the above is still correct / your latest thoughts I think?
Yeap, them’s still the model’s top rated runners @Athletico Charlton The strength of chance of Dunboyne and Back On The Lash are ground dependent and mutually exclusive and most my comments in last few days have been about them because of the weather. But the other main 3 (Delta Work, Mr Incredible and The Big Breakaway) have outstanding chances regardless. Delta Work has a better chance than last year - better weight, better form, extra week rest after the XC, slower ground. Mr Incredible and The Big Breakaway are IMO the best handicapped runners in the race that have form at 28f+. But I also expect big runs from Gaillard Du Mesnil and Velvet Elvis - both have great frame making profiles on any version of GS.
I have below two longshots from a while back on NRNB basis (another two didn't make it so money coming back)
Back on the lash A wave of the sea
And have also done the below reverse forecasts just in case Peanuts model is on fire !!!
Delta Work / Dunboyne Delta Work / Back on the lash Delta Work / A wave of the sea Dunboyne / Back on the lash Dunboyne / A wave of the sea Back on the lash / A wave of the sea
So basically, come on Back on the lash / A wave of the sea !!!!!
Records in the GN of some of the Jockeys on fancied runners tomorrow:
Paul Townend (Gaillard Du Mesnil) - 11 rides: 0UFP0PPPPUU Aidan Coleman (The Big Dog) - 14 rides: 0FFFPUUF00PP2P Sean Bowen (Noble Yeats) - 7 rides: 000PPP0 Sam Twiston-Davies (Our Power) - 12 rides: 5P7PU0PFBPR0
4 top jocks, 44 rides: wins 0, places 2
Tough life being a NH jockey
Flip side of the coin, also riding tomorrow, Derek Fox and Ryan Mania both won it on their GN debuts.
Means nowt of course but 9 jockeys make their GN debut tomorrow:
Michael O’Sullivan - Carefully Selected Kieren Buckley - Diol Ker Shane Fitzgerald - A Wave Of The Sea Theo Gillard - Minella Trump Simon Torrens - Enjoy D’Allen Peter Carberry - Gabby’s Cross Jack Foley - Recite A Prayer Alan Johns - Eva’s Oskar Ben Jones - Francky Du Berlais
Records in the GN of some of the Jockeys on fancied runners tomorrow:
Paul Townend (Gaillard Du Mesnil) - 11 rides: 0UFP0PPPPUU Aidan Coleman (The Big Dog) - 14 rides: 0FFFPUUF00PP2P Sean Bowen (Noble Yeats) - 7 rides: 000PPP0 Sam Twiston-Davies (Our Power) - 12 rides: 5P7PU0PFBPR0
4 top jocks, 44 rides: wins 0, places 2
Tough life being a NH jockey
Flip side of the coin, also riding tomorrow, Derek Fox and Ryan Mania both won it on their GN debuts.
Means nowt of course but 9 jockeys make their GN debut tomorrow:
Michael O’Sullivan - Carefully Selected Kieren Buckley - Diol Ker Shane Fitzgerald - A Wave Of The Sea Theo Gillard - Minella Trump Simon Torrens - Enjoy D’Allen Peter Carberry - Gabby’s Cross Jack Foley - Recite A Prayer Alan Johns - Eva’s Oskar Ben Jones - Francky Du Berlais
Could it be?
Winners on debut and top jocks struggling to place are reasons there's no "jockey factor" in my model. She gave him a great ride but it didn't need Rachel aboard Minella Times for him to win IMHO. It's true that you can look at the rider for some soft URs (I still curse under my breath at the memory of Ben Poste pathetically coming off Minellacelebration when going really well in 2021) but it's impossible to "model". And on the flip side, you have a relatively unheralded jock like Robbie Dunne performing a miracle to keep aboard Vics Canvas at 1st Bechers and nursing him back to lead after the last. Win some, lose some.
Back on the Lash down to 20/1 today - looks like Peanuts has got the bookies spooked!
Bring it on!!
;-)
Bob's keen to get him - top price 33s
TBH, I'm surprised to see him shorten so much - the name, I presume. Despite a sunny, dry day that's forecast, I suspect the ground we get by 5.15pm will be holding (dead at best) and maybe too much on the slow side of GS for him. But it won't be officially "Soft" unless Michael Fish is back at the Met Office, so I hope he'll handle it. We'll see
PS I'll likely stick with my Top10 finish for Recite A Prayer given the drying day ahead.
And cheers for your kind comment. Very glad it's a popular read. Thanks to everyone who's made contributions to the thread - all of them very welcome indeed. And to those who've shown confidence in some or all of my model's fancies. It's done alright for me for a while now but truly sincere apologies in advance if today's the day this
turns to
It will surely happen one day but if it is to be today, I hope at least one of the wilder ones gives us the buzz of a big run for a long way, like Swing Bill (6th at 80/1) in 2013 , Vic's Canvas (3rd at 80) in 2016 and Freewheelin Dylan (7th at 100) last year.
Blimey, all of them had bloke's names - maybe I should have a nibble of Francky Du Berlais (actually he could run really well for a long way but I just don't think he'll get home) or Sam Brown
Let's hope they all come back safe and sound. Cheers all.
Super thread as always Peanuts. Shame that Battleoverdoyen isn’t running today, thought he was ridden like he was running in the National yesterday- outpaced by the end but had some petrol still in the tank clearly by the last. I’ve added Noble Yeats to my slip as well, he has gone to a backable price for me now, and his performance last year and his warm up run in the GC find him too hard to resist.
Comments
Didn't hear his name mentioned during the race, only realised he'd placed once the caption popped up. Many thanks again, peanuts.
He is a shit or bust selection but, for reasons explained earlier, he's in the ballpark of having the right profile (Archetype 2 - unexposed, potentially progressive youngster) and does have some rare components to his damside pedigree that suggest he could cause one hell of a shock.
My reading of that pedigree is that slower ground would provide his best chance.
Just a reminder from earlier posts of the key pedigree stats:
Of the 356 runners in the 9 GNs 2013~22:
1. 78 of them (21.9%) had a Damsire that had offspring (as sire or damsire) that had won a G1 at 10f+ on the flat AND a 2nd or 3rd Damsire that had either done likewise or had Damsired a GN 1st~4th.
That 21.9% contributed 7 of the 9 winners (77.8%) and another 3 of the 7 finishing <5L of them (62.5% of winners and near-missers). Indeed it accounted for 42.2% of all 1st~5th in those GNs. In other words, 1 in 4 of runners ticking this box made the frame (compared to a random distribution of 1 in 8)
Of this year's entries down to #60 at the weights, the following ticked this box:
2. 41 of the 356 GN runners 2013~22 (11.5%) had the genetically-electric combo on the damside of Wild Risk and Bold Ruler.
That 11.5% contributed 5 of the 9 winners (55.6%) and another 3 near-missers (50% of winners and near-missers). It accounted for 28.9% of all 1st~5th. Thus, 1 in 3 of them made the frame (again compared to 1 in 8, if outcomes were random).
Of this year's remaining entries down to #60 at the weights, the following ticked this box:
Combination. If we put these 2 stats together, just 13 of the 356 runners (only 9 different horses) 2013~22 ticked both boxes. They were:
2013: Tatenen - Fell at 12th fence
2016: Rule The World - Won
2017: One For Arthur - Won
2018: Tiger Roll - Won
2019: Tiger Roll - Won / Magic of Light - 2nd (2.75L) / One For Arthur - 6th / Rock The Kasbah - BD
2021: Minella Times - Won / Magic Of Light - UR 4th fence
2022: Fiddlerontheroof 5th / Minella Times - BD / Coko Beach - 8th
So, 13 runs produced 5 winners and 3 places. 5 of the 9 different horses ticking both boxes were a winner or near-misser.
Of this year's runners 3 tick both boxes:
Will he take to the fences?
Will he get the trip?
In short, we don't know but he is related to Cause of Causes, close 2nd in the 2017 GN 2017 and with a combo at wild prices on Betfair, I've happily got him on my team.
Watch out for the JP Green & Gold with red cap.
So @PeanutsMolloy the above is still correct / your latest thoughts I think?
Cheers
The strength of chance of Dunboyne and Back On The Lash are ground dependent and mutually exclusive and most my comments in last few days have been about them because of the weather.
But the other main 3 (Delta Work, Mr Incredible and The Big Breakaway) have outstanding chances regardless.
Delta Work has a better chance than last year - better weight, better form, extra week rest after the XC, slower ground.
Mr Incredible and The Big Breakaway are IMO the best handicapped runners in the race that have form at 28f+.
But I also expect big runs from Gaillard Du Mesnil and Velvet Elvis - both have great frame making profiles on any version of GS.
A Wave Of The Sea? Buckle up
Hope they come good.
Cheers
Paul Townend (Gaillard Du Mesnil) - 11 rides: 0UFP0PPPPUU
Aidan Coleman (The Big Dog) - 14 rides: 0FFFPUUF00PP2P
Sean Bowen (Noble Yeats) - 7 rides: 000PPP0
Sam Twiston-Davies (Our Power) - 12 rides: 5P7PU0PFBPR0
Tough life being a NH jockey
Cheers mate, as always. Have raided the kids piggy banks again so fingers crossed they all win!
;-)
Means nowt of course but 9 jockeys make their GN debut tomorrow:
Michael O’Sullivan - Carefully Selected
Kieren Buckley - Diol Ker
Shane Fitzgerald - A Wave Of The Sea
Theo Gillard - Minella Trump
Simon Torrens - Enjoy D’Allen
Peter Carberry - Gabby’s Cross
Jack Foley - Recite A Prayer
Alan Johns - Eva’s Oskar
Ben Jones - Francky Du Berlais
Could it be?
Recite a Prayer 125/1
Wave of the Sea 100/1
Back on the Lash 66/1
Dunboyne 50/1
The Big Breakaway 33/1
Additional ‘fancies’ are:
Minella Trump 100/1
Eva’s Oscar 66/1
Fortescue 66/1
Lifetime Ambition 33/1
Good luck everyone! Hoping runners and riders all come home safe and sound. Fingers crossed that the predicted protestors fail to disrupt the event.
Back on the Lash down to 20/1 today - looks like Peanuts has got the bookies spooked!
Ain’t that a shame - win 24s & 15s
Galvin - win 22s
Mr incredible - win 15.3s
Coko beach - EW 33s 1-7
Roi Mage - EW 60s 1-6
Gaillard du mesnil - ante EW 15.3/1 1-5
The big breakaway - ante EW 50/1 1-5
Delta work - office sweepstake (which I organised 👀)
She gave him a great ride but it didn't need Rachel aboard Minella Times for him to win IMHO.
It's true that you can look at the rider for some soft URs (I still curse under my breath at the memory of Ben Poste pathetically coming off Minellacelebration when going really well in 2021) but it's impossible to "model". And on the flip side, you have a relatively unheralded jock like Robbie Dunne performing a miracle to keep aboard Vics Canvas at 1st Bechers and nursing him back to lead after the last.
Win some, lose some.
TBH, I'm surprised to see him shorten so much - the name, I presume.
Despite a sunny, dry day that's forecast, I suspect the ground we get by 5.15pm will be holding (dead at best) and maybe too much on the slow side of GS for him.
But it won't be officially "Soft" unless Michael Fish is back at the Met Office, so I hope he'll handle it. We'll see
PS I'll likely stick with my Top10 finish for Recite A Prayer given the drying day ahead.
And cheers for your kind comment. Very glad it's a popular read.
Thanks to everyone who's made contributions to the thread - all of them very welcome indeed.
And to those who've shown confidence in some or all of my model's fancies.
It's done alright for me for a while now but truly sincere apologies in advance if today's the day this
turns to
It will surely happen one day but if it is to be today, I hope at least one of the wilder ones gives us the buzz of a big run for a long way, like Swing Bill (6th at 80/1) in 2013 , Vic's Canvas (3rd at 80) in 2016 and Freewheelin Dylan (7th at 100) last year.
Blimey, all of them had bloke's names - maybe I should have a nibble of Francky Du Berlais (actually he could run really well for a long way but I just don't think he'll get home) or Sam Brown
Let's hope they all come back safe and sound.
Cheers all.
Shame that Battleoverdoyen isn’t running today, thought he was ridden like he was running in the National yesterday- outpaced by the end but had some petrol still in the tank clearly by the last.
I’ve added Noble Yeats to my slip as well, he has gone to a backable price for me now, and his performance last year and his warm up run in the GC find him too hard to resist.