As ever, I have slavishly followed Peanuts's tips and have a line up of Back on the Lash, Velvet Elvis, A Wave of the Sea, Recite a Prayer and the Big Breakaway, all EW. Also added Rachel Blackmore on Ain't that a Shame EW in a small way as she's done well for me in the past.
Whatever the outcome, the enjoyment I get from taking in the huge amount of research and insight that goes into this thread makes losing all my stakes worthwhile (not that this has ever happened). Many, many thanks to @PeanutsMolloy and other contributors for this perennial thread of the year. Good luck to all of us!
I live 18 miles from Aintree (a little less as the Robin flys) and this morning it has been pissing down with rain all morning. Checked the current forecast there and it seems the same, where yesterday it was not predicting much rain today.
Not sure how much difference this will make in the end, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the going turns out to be softer tomorrow than was predicted yesterday
Cheers @“Gary Poole" Bugger me, this weather forecasting mullarkey is driving me bananas
There’s no model for tomorrow’s Topham, obviously, and I’m gutted he’s not having a tilt at the big one, in which IMHO he could have done a Balko Des Flos on the drying ground, but I’m still gonna have a shilling e/w on Battleoverdoyen (50/1 6 places). He could easily drift tomorrow morning given how far he is off anyone’s radar screen bar mine. 16lbs lower mark than when jumping the fences beautifully in the same race a year ago - was well in touch but tapped for toe from the Melling Road and came home 10th under 11-08. Will carry 10-09 tomorrow with a 3lb claimer aboard. The 10yo may be past his best but he was still good enough to notch RPR152 earlier this season in a Grade 2 and he looks nice e/w value to me off OR141. Just wish he was going over further.
On it, only small EW, but thanks in advance :
Cheers for the vote of confidence @“johnnybev1987” Apologies in advance
Peanuts would you cash out on Dunboyne with the ground as it stands?
You could hedge here. Dunboyne currently at 80/1 with Coral and seems to be 50/1 most others. If you have 50/1 you could cash out and put a smaller amount on at 80/1 E/W 1/5 six places with them
Peanuts would you cash out on Dunboyne with the ground as it stands?
In my case I can’t as I backed him way back with WH, the only NRNB at the time as he could have gone to Fairyhouse. No cash out available (to me anyway) from them. If I could I would IF I was convinced it would definitely be on quick side of GS. We can’t know that until tomorrow morning at the earliest. Until then I’d keep options open. In any case, there is the chance that first time blinkers could sharpen him up early and help him stay within range on GS of the Minella Times or Aurora’s Encore variety (c 10 secs slow of std). That Kim Muir in which he stayed on for 4th on officially Soft was in a GS sort of time so not entirely without hope if it’s slowish GS. Will update later after the Topham.
I suppose it was to be expected with Rachael Blackmore on board but Aint that a shame has rocketed to the front of the betting. I imagine she is the ladies choice.
Hi Peanuts Has Aint That A Shame got much going for him on your models? I've looked at the form and he won last time on his seventh chase attempt but finished very tired over 3m2 at Cheltenham last year.
I'm about a mile from the course. It's been raining for hours. About another 3-4 hours to go today according to forecast. Could go either way this - given the very dry forecast which follows, they could either end up over-watering or it might be quick Good to Soft if they decide not to water now. Glad I'm not the clerk!
Hi Peanuts Has Aint That A Shame got much going for him on your models? I've looked at the form and he won last time on his seventh chase attempt but finished very tired over 3m2 at Cheltenham last year.
He's definitely got some pluses. Obviously with trainer and jockey, he's being likened to Minella Times and like him:
a 2nd season chaser (the sweet spot) with a decent win/near-miss strike rate (75%) at 3m
near-miss in the PP Hdcp in December (though, unlike Minella Times' renewal, the form of this season's PP looks a tad limp)
some interesting Pedigree components - shares his Damsire, Bob Back, with Many Clouds (though overall his pedigree is nothing like as GN-starred as either Many Clouds or Minella Times)
good campaign (3 wins or near-misses from 3 - same as Minella Times)
he's 10~11lbs well-in with The Big Dog (and via collateral form with Lifetime Ambition) based on his close 2nd in October's Munster National (NOTE: so too is 100/1 A Wave of The Sea on that same race)
However there are important negative stats (2 Golden Stat fails) that make him an unlikely frame-maker from my model's perspective:
Unlike Minella Times, as you noted, he is exposed over 26f and it was not promising in terms of him getting an extreme trip (13th 71L in the 2022 Kim Muir, no excuses)
Unlike Minella Times, his best hurdles RPR is only 117. All 16 GN winners and near-missers since 2013 had notched 130+ and not a single horse placed first 6th had as low a hurdles RPR from 3+ runs.
So, a fine chaser, nicely-handicapped but almost certainly best around 3m and unlikely to get home IMHO. Not for me.
Peanuts would you cash out on Dunboyne with the ground as it stands?
In my case I can’t as I backed him way back with WH, the only NRNB at the time as he could have gone to Fairyhouse. No cash out available (to me anyway) from them. If I could I would IF I was convinced it would definitely be on quick side of GS. We can’t know that until tomorrow morning at the earliest. Until then I’d keep options open. In any case, there is the chance that first time blinkers could sharpen him up early and help him stay within range on GS of the Minella Times or Aurora’s Encore variety (c 10 secs slow of std). That Kim Muir in which he stayed on for 4th on officially Soft was in a GS sort of time so not entirely without hope if it’s slowish GS. Will update later after the Topham.
Fitzy says after that race (hurdle course, of course), "it could end up Soft, even Heavy by the end of the day".
Keep options open. When they've watered the ground, unexpected rain can change the going very quickly and materially. But again, let's see how the GN course rides in the Topham.
Peanuts would you cash out on Dunboyne with the ground as it stands?
In my case I can’t as I backed him way back with WH, the only NRNB at the time as he could have gone to Fairyhouse. No cash out available (to me anyway) from them. If I could I would IF I was convinced it would definitely be on quick side of GS. We can’t know that until tomorrow morning at the earliest. Until then I’d keep options open. In any case, there is the chance that first time blinkers could sharpen him up early and help him stay within range on GS of the Minella Times or Aurora’s Encore variety (c 10 secs slow of std). That Kim Muir in which he stayed on for 4th on officially Soft was in a GS sort of time so not entirely without hope if it’s slowish GS. Will update later after the Topham.
Fitzy says after that race (hurdle course, of course), "it could end up Soft, even Heavy by the end of the day".
Keep options open. When they've watered the ground, unexpected rain can change the going very quickly and materially. But again, let's see how the GN course rides in the Topham.
Hi Peanuts Thank you for the excellent summary of Aint That A Shame and it would seem that the movement in the market is support for the jockey.
De Bromhead's more or less said as much. Said Aint That A Shame "wasn't himself" that day for the Kim Muir. Maybe, but he seemed to travel well enough, was in touch and cruising at the top of the hill but was beaten by 3 out, before the home bend. It was Soft but his best chase RPR is on Sft/Hvy so that's not an excuse. It's possible he had a wind problem and has had an op since. Didn't race again until his close 2nd in the Munster National. It's out of order but, unlike for British-trained horses, wind ops are not notifiable for Irish-trained horses. I don't think he will but if he does win or go close tomorrow, I'd strongly suspect that could be a possibility.
I backed Delta Work, Mr Incredible and The Big Breakaway a couple of weeks ago when they were top in your model and waited re Back on the Lash and Dunboyne to see the likely going. So I added Back on the Lash a few days ago and have left off Dunboyne. Thanks Peanuts, excellent as always.
I've just added Dunboyne e/w @ 80/1 6 places with Corals and @ 50/1 7 places with Skybet, as it's still pi$$ing down and Luke Harvey said it could be soft going tomorrow if it continues for another couple of hours and there's no sign of it stopping.
This is turning into another reminder of why it's futile to worry too much about ground preferences. If you've got a team with 1 that wants it dry, 1 that wants it wet and the rest are indifferent, just go with it. Don't try and second guess the weather Gods and the watering policy.
Well does look to be cutting up pretty badly, so rain now getting down into the ground. Certainly no worries about it moving to Good. Good/ Soft at worse, and leaning to wards Soft. Keep looking for the puddles on TV coverage to see how it’s raining.
Thanks for all your info Peanuts. I am on several of your recommendations. Including Battleoverdoyen today.
Cheers for the vote of confidence @WHAddick The rain is a + and - At least it makes more of a test of stamina, which I think will suit, but his best form is on better ground. Still he enjoyed himself over the course a year ago and I'm hoping, like it has with others, that will ignite him even on softer ground. Fingers crossed.
Battleoverdoyen 5th - happy with that with the rain coming today. Jumped beautifully once again, held up but made steady progress and stayed on nicely. Nicely ridden by the claimer.
BOD looked well out of it, must have stayed on strongly over finishing stages.
Same tactics as last year - maybe he has to be ridden like that these days or they were doubtful he'd get home on the ground (I've got more confidence in him than his bloody trainer!) - but he kept inching closer and passed 3 or 4 after the last. If it's still soft tomorrow, it's for the best he ran today but it would have been great to see him on decent ground in the big one. Gobbles up the fences.
Officially Soft ground for the Topham. Winning time slow by 16 secs supports that though perhaps more like a mix of Soft and GS. But that was fresh ground and it's now opened up. Even if it's dry tomorrow, I'd expect it to be holding and most likely GS (Sft places). I think that's probably slow enough for Dunboyne and not good enough for Back On The Lash but who the F knows? Happily keep the team intact, though I may cash out this morning's Top 10 on Recite A Prayer if it looks like it won't dry up. It's like a bloody Hokey Cokey.
Comments
Bugger me, this weather forecasting mullarkey is driving me bananas
Apologies in advance
If I could I would IF I was convinced it would definitely be on quick side of GS.
We can’t know that until tomorrow morning at the earliest. Until then I’d keep options open. In any case, there is the chance that first time blinkers could sharpen him up early and help him stay within range on GS of the Minella Times or Aurora’s Encore variety (c 10 secs slow of std).
That Kim Muir in which he stayed on for 4th on officially Soft was in a GS sort of time so not entirely without hope if it’s slowish GS.
Will update later after the Topham.
Has Aint That A Shame got much going for him on your models?
I've looked at the form and he won last time on his seventh chase attempt but finished very tired over 3m2 at Cheltenham last year.
- a 2nd season chaser (the sweet spot) with a decent win/near-miss strike rate (75%) at 3m
- near-miss in the PP Hdcp in December (though, unlike Minella Times' renewal, the form of this season's PP looks a tad limp)
- some interesting Pedigree components - shares his Damsire, Bob Back, with Many Clouds (though overall his pedigree is nothing like as GN-starred as either Many Clouds or Minella Times)
- good campaign (3 wins or near-misses from 3 - same as Minella Times)
- he's 10~11lbs well-in with The Big Dog (and via collateral form with Lifetime Ambition) based on his close 2nd in October's Munster National (NOTE: so too is 100/1 A Wave of The Sea on that same race)
However there are important negative stats (2 Golden Stat fails) that make him an unlikely frame-maker from my model's perspective:- Unlike Minella Times, as you noted, he is exposed over 26f and it was not promising in terms of him getting an extreme trip (13th 71L in the 2022 Kim Muir, no excuses)
- Unlike Minella Times, his best hurdles RPR is only 117. All 16 GN winners and near-missers since 2013 had notched 130+ and not a single horse placed first 6th had as low a hurdles RPR from 3+ runs.
So, a fine chaser, nicely-handicapped but almost certainly best around 3m and unlikely to get home IMHO. Not for me.Keep options open. When they've watered the ground, unexpected rain can change the going very quickly and materially.
But again, let's see how the GN course rides in the Topham.
Thanks mate!
Thank you for the excellent summary of Aint That A Shame and it would seem that the movement in the market is support for the jockey.
Said Aint That A Shame "wasn't himself" that day for the Kim Muir. Maybe, but he seemed to travel well enough, was in touch and cruising at the top of the hill but was beaten by 3 out, before the home bend. It was Soft but his best chase RPR is on Sft/Hvy so that's not an excuse.
It's possible he had a wind problem and has had an op since. Didn't race again until his close 2nd in the Munster National.
It's out of order but, unlike for British-trained horses, wind ops are not notifiable for Irish-trained horses.
I don't think he will but if he does win or go close tomorrow, I'd strongly suspect that could be a possibility.
If you've got a team with 1 that wants it dry, 1 that wants it wet and the rest are indifferent, just go with it.
Don't try and second guess the weather Gods and the watering policy.
The rain is a + and -
At least it makes more of a test of stamina, which I think will suit, but his best form is on better ground.
Still he enjoyed himself over the course a year ago and I'm hoping, like it has with others, that will ignite him even on softer ground.
Fingers crossed.
Jumped beautifully once again, held up but made steady progress and stayed on nicely. Nicely ridden by the claimer.
If it's still soft tomorrow, it's for the best he ran today but it would have been great to see him on decent ground in the big one. Gobbles up the fences.
Winning time slow by 16 secs supports that though perhaps more like a mix of Soft and GS.
But that was fresh ground and it's now opened up.
Even if it's dry tomorrow, I'd expect it to be holding and most likely GS (Sft places).
I think that's probably slow enough for Dunboyne and not good enough for Back On The Lash but who the F knows?
Happily keep the team intact, though I may cash out this morning's Top 10 on Recite A Prayer if it looks like it won't dry up.
It's like a bloody Hokey Cokey.