BTW, for the Irish GN, my first selection is JP's latest purchase, I Am Maximus 14/1.
Carrying 11-01, aside from a near-miss over the course (always a handy box to have ticked), the 7 year old has a strong pedigree for a stamina-test, sharing Tiger Roll's sire (Authorized) and being nicely linebred to Wild Risk. Distantly related to Little Polveir, one of my GN winners of yore, when my model was a mere flashing cursor in an A1 cell
I actually got on him in play 25/1 , i also had 8/1 pre, strange call really but just luck as i hadn't seen this thread lol
Top man. Well done. I’d written him off after 2 fences Sounds like JP had as well.
Just a bit of luck really, i was watching it and didn't really think he looked strong just saw his price and had that feeling, jammy!
Looking forward to the National, so far i've had a few bets whenever i have got a winner NRNB Back on Lash Dunboyne Vanillier
all EW, will probably add a few more on the day or if there are any stake back offers etc.
Form lines, relevant to Saturday, or pointers as to impact of running at Cheltenham from yesterday's Irish GN.
The first obvious point is that all the front 4 home yesterday ran at the Festival, c. 3.5 weeks ago - the first 3 running very creditably there.
Gaillard Du Mesnil:
plus - finished 1L ahead of I Am Maximus at level weights when 3rd in a 21f Nov Gr1 in Feb (though GDM's GNOR is 6lbs higher than IAM's mark yesterday)
negative - the poor run from the off of Chemical Energy (close 2nd to GDM at the Festival) continues the dismal record in follow-up Nationals specifically of frame-makers in that 30f Nov Chase, which appears every year to need a lot of recovery time (Mullins may believe GDM is good to go but history is against).
Dunboyne:
plus - had Gevrey (close 2nd yesterday) 30L behind (off same OR as yesterday) over 20f on Heavy in November (though Dunboyne will race off 20lb higher mark on Saturday)
probable plus - off 2lb lower mark that Saturday's, finished 5L ahead of Defi Bleu (close 3rd yesterday off 3lb lower OR) when 4th in the Kim Muir (though Kim Muir winner and 2nd, who fought out a neck and neck finish, didn't perform yesterday)
Mr Incredible:
probable plus - finished 13L clear of Defi Bleu in Kim Muir off same mark as for Saturday
Panda Boy's 5th slightly improves the look of the form of December's PP Hdcp (close 3rd off 4lb lower mark), which has otherwise looked a little limp (and PP Hdcp winner Real Steel flopped yesterday). Could possibly be a small plus for Diol Ker, Ain't That A Shame and Gabby's Cross
Anyone know when 365 start their half stake back offer? Guessing the Monday before?
Usually the day of or evening before isn't it?
I might be wrong but I have a feeling that it is something like 48 hours before i.e. straight after the final decs (bar any reserves getting in) are declared.
No reserves this year.
Thanks. Silly me! Still have in my head that it was on the Thursday night previously and up until midday on the day of the race - but I might have got both of those wrong too!
You are correct - but scrapped from this year onwards.
For those asking about B365's offer, Bob has already answered that
Clerk of the course, Sulekha Varma, has said that rain came yesterday which is fortunate because she the ground was getting to be on the fast side of good and they would have to have watered. The going is likely to be on Saturday good to soft, soft in places but it all depends on the amount of rain that comes in the meantime.
Just
a little over 4 days until rubber meets
road, for those interested here are my GN model’s final ratings for 2023.
As a reminder, and to put
its top picks into some context, the model seeks to identify those runners whose
profiles (a combination of CV and pedigree) have the “best fits” with either GN
winners/near-missers or other placed horses since 2013.
The reason that,
unlike most trend-following systems, it includes placed horses in its database
and treats near-missers as winners is that it’s a mistake IMHO to think there’s a
one-size-fits-all CV for GN success.
In fact, there
are 3 Archetypes consistent with winning a modern GN and another for going
close or making the frame and each represents a different permutation of age,
career and other stats. Importantly, trends evolve and the near-missers of
yesterday can give us a big clue as to tomorrow’s winner.
The winning-most
Archetype since 2013, Archetype 1, has been:
- 2nd
season chaser with form at 26f+ and at the furthest trip attempted
5 Winners: Pineau De Re,Many Clouds, Rule The
World, One For Arthur, Tiger Roll (2018)
Placed: Teaforthree, Rocky Creek, Shutthefrontdoor, The
Last Samuri, Vics Canvas, Blaklion, Anibale Fly (2018), Fiddlerontheroof
But producer of
the last 2 winners is an emerging Archetype 2, flagged up by placed horses and
a near-misser in prior years, which enabled the model to identify Minella Times
as one of its selections in 2021:
- 1st
or 2nd season chaser, unexposed at 26f+ but form at 24~25f &
carrying <11-02
2 Winners: Minella Times (2021), Noble Yeats (2022)
Last but not least, the “Old Faithful” of the pre-2013 GNs, Archetype 3, which enabled the
model to pick the winner or runner-up (each <4L) every year 2006~2012 and
both of them in 2008. And it’s still a prolific producer of near-missers and
frame-makers:
- Seasoned
Chasers with creditable form at 28f+, and at the furthest trip attempted
2 Winners: Auroras Encore, Tiger Roll (2019)
Near-missers: Balthazar King, Saint Are (2015), Pleasant
Company, Rathvinden, Any Second Now (2022)
Placed: Cappa Bleu, Oscar Time, Rare Bob, Alvarado (2014
& 15), Monbeg Dude, Goonyella, Cause Of Causes, Saint Are (2017), Gas Line
Boy, Bless The Wings, Milansbar, Walk In The Mill, Anibale Fly (2019), Any
Second Now (2021), Burrows Saint, Delta Work
Another Archetype
4 caters for seasoned chasers unexposed at 28f+ but with Grade 1 form at 24f+
and that have come down 14lbs+ in the handicap, that produced Balko Des Flos
(6L 2nd in 2021) and Santini (4th last year) but,
as yet, no winner. Rare Bob (5th in 2013) also met the Grade 1 and OR drop yardstick of this Archetype as well as Archetype 3.
Of course, the
qualifying criteria for each Archetype is a little more complicated than these
simple summaries and all must pass at least 9 of the model’s 11 specific tests,
including all 6 “Golden” tests, passed by every horse finishing 1st~5th
since 2013.
But, crucially,
whatever the Archetype match for CV, the model also requires a contender to
have one or more pedigree components (of varying rarity) in common with the 9
GN winners and all horses placed (at least up to 4th) since 2013.
The number and combination of these Pedigree Pluses, from the model’s
perspective, determines the strength of winning chance.
So, to 2023.
There are 5
runners that both match an Archetype and have the minimum requisite Pedigree
profile to Win or place <10L. Ranking them by strongest GN-starred Pedigree
Profile, they are:
Dunboyne[NAP on Soft, likely to be
outpaced if quickish GS] – Archetype 1
Delta Work [NAP on Good to Soft] – Archetype 3
Mr Incredible – Archetype 1
The
Big Breakaway – Archetype 3
Back On The Lash [must
have decent ground] – Archetype 3
And
2 that have an overall Profile consistent with placing 10~20L behind the
winner:
Gaillard
Du Mesnil – Archetype 1
Velvet Elvis – Archetype 1
And 1 that has the potential to smack gobs at 150/1 (6 places):
A Wave Of The Sea – narrow miss as Archetype 2 (3rd season chaser but only a 7yo) but
GN-starred damside pedigree
And the best of the rest:
- For the Irish – Any Second Now(narrow miss Archetype 3, strong Pedigree
profile)
- For the
Brits – Our Power (narrow miss Archetype 2, narrow miss Pedigree profile)
Whichever runners carry your hard-earned, very best of luck.
Let’s hope all that set off come back safe and sound.
Anyone know when 365 start their half stake back offer? Guessing the Monday before?
Usually the day of or evening before isn't it?
I might be wrong but I have a feeling that it is something like 48 hours before i.e. straight after the final decs (bar any reserves getting in) are declared.
No reserves this year.
Thanks. Silly me! Still have in my head that it was on the Thursday night previously and up until midday on the day of the race - but I might have got both of those wrong too!
You are correct - but scrapped from this year onwards.
For those asking about B365's offer, Bob has already answered that
Was @bobmunro not referring to Reserves @Addick Addict ? I think he hinted elsewhere it would "probably" be happening but maybe I misunderstood.
Anyone know when 365 start their half stake back offer? Guessing the Monday before?
Usually the day of or evening before isn't it?
I might be wrong but I have a feeling that it is something like 48 hours before i.e. straight after the final decs (bar any reserves getting in) are declared.
No reserves this year.
Thanks. Silly me! Still have in my head that it was on the Thursday night previously and up until midday on the day of the race - but I might have got both of those wrong too!
You are correct - but scrapped from this year onwards.
For those asking about B365's offer, Bob has already answered that
Was @bobmunro not referring to Reserves @Addick Addict ? I think he hinted elsewhere it would "probably" be happening but maybe I misunderstood.
In which case apologies because I took it to mean the offer and it being available from Thursday night! Come on Bob put us out of our misery!
Quick question - have already got some NRNB on, but wanted to do an e/w lucky 15 on 4 of the longer priced horses in the race on bet365 app but it doesn't seem to let me do multiples on my selections
Quick question - have already got some NRNB on, but wanted to do an e/w lucky 15 on 4 of the longer priced horses in the race on bet365 app but it doesn't seem to let me do multiples on my selections
Clerk of the course, Sulekha Varma, has said that rain came yesterday which is fortunate because she the ground was getting to be on the fast side of good and they would have to have watered. The going is likely to be on Saturday good to soft, soft in places but it all depends on the amount of rain that comes in the meantime.
Cheers for that @Addick Addict Latest update from Accuweather indicates another 25mm of rain prior to a dry Saturday, but 13mm of it coming on Friday. BBC gives it 60% probability of raining for 12 solid hours on Friday, including during racing. They'll keep fresh ground round the inner on the GN course for Saturday, as usual. That projected going of GS (Soft places) feels about right. Might even turn out principally Soft. If so, too holding for Back On The Lash I would venture.
Quick question - have already got some NRNB on, but wanted to do an e/w lucky 15 on 4 of the longer priced horses in the race on bet365 app but it doesn't seem to let me do multiples on my selections
any reason why ?
You can't do a Lucky 15 if more than one of the selections is in the same race as another. You would have to find 3 other races/selections and then add each of those 4 selections effectively giving you 4 L15s.
Anyone know when 365 start their half stake back offer? Guessing the Monday before?
Usually the day of or evening before isn't it?
I might be wrong but I have a feeling that it is something like 48 hours before i.e. straight after the final decs (bar any reserves getting in) are declared.
No reserves this year.
Thanks. Silly me! Still have in my head that it was on the Thursday night previously and up until midday on the day of the race - but I might have got both of those wrong too!
You are correct - but scrapped from this year onwards.
For those asking about B365's offer, Bob has already answered that
Was @bobmunro not referring to Reserves @Addick Addict ? I think he hinted elsewhere it would "probably" be happening but maybe I misunderstood.
Hi @PeanutsMolloy - thank you for the fascinating insight and depth of analysis as always! Out of interest, where do Vanillier, Lifetime Ambition, Le Milos, Diol Ker and Capodanno drop out in your model? All of those were on my long list with some others who I am mightily relieved to see made it on to your slip (Velvet Elvis, Dunboyne and The Big Breakaway plus Delta Work who should be favourite in my view).
Hi @PeanutsMolloy - thank you for the fascinating insight and depth of analysis as always! Out of interest, where do Vanillier, Lifetime Ambition, Le Milos, Diol Ker and Capodanno drop out in your model? All of those were on my long list with some others who I am mightily relieved to see made it on to your slip (Velvet Elvis, Dunboyne and The Big Breakaway plus Delta Work who should be favourite in my view).
Diol Ker has been flagged up as an e/w shot of interest by a couple of different tipsters this week so I've had an interest at 80-1 with Hills.
Looking to up my deposit limit on bet365 for the national. I know I need to wait 24 hours before it's changed, but bet365 not even letting me submit the limit for 24hrs time , has anyone else had this problem?
Looking to up my deposit limit on bet365 for the national. I know I need to wait 24 hours before it's changed, but bet365 not even letting me submit the limit for 24hrs time , has anyone else had this problem?
Sometimes you have to call up and speak to someone if you want to increase. Responsible gambling n all that.
Hi @PeanutsMolloy - thank you for the fascinating insight and depth of analysis as always! Out of interest, where do Vanillier, Lifetime Ambition, Le Milos, Diol Ker and Capodanno drop out in your model? All of those were on my long list with some others who I am mightily relieved to see made it on to your slip (Velvet Elvis, Dunboyne and The Big Breakaway plus Delta Work who should be favourite in my view).
Many thanks for those kind comments @ISawLeaburnScore. Much appreciated and inclined to agree with you about Delta Work.
I'll never say never about any runner nowadays (hardly likely to with a 150/1 shot on my slip!), so please don't let any of my comments put you off, but this is why those 5 don't quite make it from my model's perspective:
Vanillier - fails 2 Golden stats: no form in a chase with 15+ runners / did not appear to get home in the 30f Nov Chase at the 2022 Festival. I'm not crazy about his sire (Martaline) whose progeny's record at 31.5f+ is 11 runs, 0 wins, 0 places
Lifetime Ambition - I really like this fella and would have been big on him. 2nd season chaser from an astute yard. Jumped the fences really well in the Grand Sefton last Nov. He's also a Spring Ground horse with a materially superior record mid March~mid May compared to other months of the season. Also linebred to Wild Risk, with some Bold Ruler for spice on his damside. BUT, all of that is overshadowed by his GN mark and weight (I reckon he has 5lbs+ too much based on his CV and needed to be on max 10-12). Simple stat: every runner to carry 11-03+ to make the frame in a GN since 2013 (9, including 2 winners) had notched that season in a 26f+ chase an RPR at least 5lbs more than their GNOR. He has no form at 26f and his career-best chase RPR is 153 (5lbs below his GNOR). He's even 6lbs badly off with The Big Dog who in turn is 13lbs badly off with The Big Breakaway. But I still expect him to show up really well until may be after 2nd Bechers.
Le Milos - Lot of respect for him, especially with Skelton as trainer. However hefails a big stat with a hurdle RPR of only 125 from 13 runs. No horse with 5+ runs over hurdles has made the first 4 home in a GN with a best hurdles RPR <130. No Wild Risk at all in his pedigree doesn't bode well for getting the trip. He is related to Cogry but he did have multiple exposure to Wild Risk on his damside.
Diol Ker - maybe slightly unfortunate but 3 fails at 28~29f doesn't bode well. Nothing grabs me in his pedigree. Again, by Martaline
Capodanno - Again, principally weight. Carrying 11-05 no form at 26f+ is a biggy.
In fact, of all carrying 11-03+ this year, only Delta Work has the RPR premium (+10) to make the frame.
Looking to up my deposit limit on bet365 for the national. I know I need to wait 24 hours before it's changed, but bet365 not even letting me submit the limit for 24hrs time , has anyone else had this problem?
Sometimes you have to call up and speak to someone if you want to increase. Responsible gambling n all that.
Cheers So after 45 minutes Went through twitter and they gave me a link for live help. Was asked a few questions and then told its been put through and will be OK from tomorrow. Thing is I was never asked any details.
Hi @PeanutsMolloy - thank you for the fascinating insight and depth of analysis as always! Out of interest, where do Vanillier, Lifetime Ambition, Le Milos, Diol Ker and Capodanno drop out in your model? All of those were on my long list with some others who I am mightily relieved to see made it on to your slip (Velvet Elvis, Dunboyne and The Big Breakaway plus Delta Work who should be favourite in my view).
Many thanks for those kind comments @ISawLeaburnScore. Much appreciated and inclined to agree with you about Delta Work.
I'll never say never about any runner nowadays (hardly likely to with a 150/1 shot on my slip!), so please don't let any of my comments put you off, but this is why those 5 don't quite make it from my model's perspective:
Vanillier - fails 2 Golden stats: no form in a chase with 15+ runners / did not appear to get home in the 30f Nov Chase at the 2022 Festival. I'm not crazy about his sire (Martaline) whose progeny's record at 31.5f+ is 11 runs, 0 wins, 0 places
Lifetime Ambition - I really like this fella and would have been big on him. 2nd season chaser from an astute yard. Jumped the fences really well in the Grand Sefton last Nov. He's also a Spring Ground horse with a materially superior record mid March~mid May compared to other months of the season. Also linebred to Wild Risk, with some Bold Ruler for spice on his damside. BUT, all of that is overshadowed by his GN mark and weight (I reckon he has 6lbs too much based on his CV and needed to be on max 10-12). Simple stat: every runner to carry 11-03+ to make the frame in a GN since 2013 (9, including 2 winners) had notched that season in a 26f+ chase an RPR at least 5lbs more than their GNOR. He has no form at 26f and his career-best chase RPR is 153 (5lbs below his GNOR). He's even 6lbs badly off with The Big Dog who in turn is 13lbs badly off with The Big Breakaway. But I still expect him to show up really well until may be after 2nd Bechers.
Le Milos - Lot of respect for him, especially with Skelton as trainer. However hefails a big stat with a hurdle RPR of only 125 from 13 runs. No horse with 5+ runs over hurdles has made the first 4 home in a GN with a best hurdles RPR <130. No Wild Risk at all in his pedigree doesn't bode well for getting the trip. He is related to Cogry but he did have multiple exposure to Wild Risk on his damside.
Diol Ker - maybe slightly unfortunate but 3 fails at 28~29f doesn't bode well. Nothing grabs me in his pedigree. Again, by Martaline
Capodanno - Again, principally weight. Carrying 11-05 no form at 26f+ is a biggy.
In fact, of all carrying 11-03+ this year, only Delta Work has the RPR premium (+10) to make the frame.
Thanks for the views - being able to put that level of reasoning down for 5 different runners in no time at all says it all!
Of those 5, I would take a chance on Diol Ker having some rotten luck in those 3 marathon trips and although the form from 2022 doesn't look great, I do like the Christmas chase at Leopardstown as a staying chase guide usually. 80/1 seems overpriced.
The other one I keep coming back to is Vanillier and the Bobbyjo form. Again 20+/1 seems generous.
Fair points that Lifetime Ambition and Capodanno seem to have too much weight.
Le Milos - in the group of best UK form behind Corach Rambler and Mr Incredible but maybe the nationality is putting me off given how this race has gone!
It definitely feels like there could be a winner from nowhere this year. I suppose that happened last year but then Noble Yeates has gone on to come 4th in a Gold Cup and win a G2 backing it up. Could be more left field this time.
Here's to another year of success for you and the holiday fund @PeanutsMolloy and thanks again!
Hi @PeanutsMolloy - thank you for the fascinating insight and depth of analysis as always! Out of interest, where do Vanillier, Lifetime Ambition, Le Milos, Diol Ker and Capodanno drop out in your model? All of those were on my long list with some others who I am mightily relieved to see made it on to your slip (Velvet Elvis, Dunboyne and The Big Breakaway plus Delta Work who should be favourite in my view).
Many thanks for those kind comments @ISawLeaburnScore. Much appreciated and inclined to agree with you about Delta Work.
I'll never say never about any runner nowadays (hardly likely to with a 150/1 shot on my slip!), so please don't let any of my comments put you off, but this is why those 5 don't quite make it from my model's perspective:
Vanillier - fails 2 Golden stats: no form in a chase with 15+ runners / did not appear to get home in the 30f Nov Chase at the 2022 Festival. I'm not crazy about his sire (Martaline) whose progeny's record at 31.5f+ is 11 runs, 0 wins, 0 places
Lifetime Ambition - I really like this fella and would have been big on him. 2nd season chaser from an astute yard. Jumped the fences really well in the Grand Sefton last Nov. He's also a Spring Ground horse with a materially superior record mid March~mid May compared to other months of the season. Also linebred to Wild Risk, with some Bold Ruler for spice on his damside. BUT, all of that is overshadowed by his GN mark and weight (I reckon he has 6lbs too much based on his CV and needed to be on max 10-12). Simple stat: every runner to carry 11-03+ to make the frame in a GN since 2013 (9, including 2 winners) had notched that season in a 26f+ chase an RPR at least 5lbs more than their GNOR. He has no form at 26f and his career-best chase RPR is 153 (5lbs below his GNOR). He's even 6lbs badly off with The Big Dog who in turn is 13lbs badly off with The Big Breakaway. But I still expect him to show up really well until may be after 2nd Bechers.
Le Milos - Lot of respect for him, especially with Skelton as trainer. However hefails a big stat with a hurdle RPR of only 125 from 13 runs. No horse with 5+ runs over hurdles has made the first 4 home in a GN with a best hurdles RPR <130. No Wild Risk at all in his pedigree doesn't bode well for getting the trip. He is related to Cogry but he did have multiple exposure to Wild Risk on his damside.
Diol Ker - maybe slightly unfortunate but 3 fails at 28~29f doesn't bode well. Nothing grabs me in his pedigree. Again, by Martaline
Capodanno - Again, principally weight. Carrying 11-05 no form at 26f+ is a biggy.
In fact, of all carrying 11-03+ this year, only Delta Work has the RPR premium (+10) to make the frame.
Thanks for the views - being able to put that level of reasoning down for 5 different runners in no time at all says it all!
Of those 5, I would take a chance on Diol Ker having some rotten luck in those 3 marathon trips and although the form from 2022 doesn't look great, I do like the Christmas chase at Leopardstown as a staying chase guide usually. 80/1 seems overpriced.
The other one I keep coming back to is Vanillier and the Bobbyjo form. Again 20+/1 seems generous.
Fair points that Lifetime Ambition and Capodanno seem to have too much weight.
Le Milos - in the group of best UK form behind Corach Rambler and Mr Incredible but maybe the nationality is putting me off given how this race has gone!
It definitely feels like there could be a winner from nowhere this year. I suppose that happened last year but then Noble Yeates has gone on to come 4th in a Gold Cup and win a G2 backing it up. Could be more left field this time.
Here's to another year of success for you and the holiday fund @PeanutsMolloy and thanks again!
Cheers @ISawLeaburnScore Wouldn’t argue at all with any of your points. That Paddy Power Hdcp keeps coming up in the season’s campaign (last 2 GN winners and plenty of placed horses in recent years) and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if it repeats this year and Diol Ker has had some misfortune. I’m just not convinced by that Bobbyjo form. The proximity of Now Where Or When is no easier to explain after yesterday (wasn’t terrible but not great either). But Cromwell is a terrific trainer and some smart people are tipping Vanillier. I wouldn’t be put off by Le Milos being trained here. If any British trainer can beat the Irish in a handicap it’s Skelton IMO, plus I reckon this year the handicapper has imposed a penalty across most of the quality Irish contenders that levels the playing field, at least better than in prior years. That said, their record on the 2 soft ground GNs (if that’s what it is to be) since 2013 is even more dominant. Best of luck. Hopefully we’ll all be in profit come 5.24pm on Saturday. Cheers.
Comments
Looking forward to the National, so far i've had a few bets whenever i have got a winner NRNB
Back on Lash
Dunboyne
Vanillier
all EW, will probably add a few more on the day or if there are any stake back offers etc.
The first obvious point is that all the front 4 home yesterday ran at the Festival, c. 3.5 weeks ago - the first 3 running very creditably there.
Gaillard Du Mesnil:
- plus - finished 1L ahead of I Am Maximus at level weights when 3rd in a 21f Nov Gr1 in Feb (though GDM's GNOR is 6lbs higher than IAM's mark yesterday)
- negative - the poor run from the off of Chemical Energy (close 2nd to GDM at the Festival) continues the dismal record in follow-up Nationals specifically of frame-makers in that 30f Nov Chase, which appears every year to need a lot of recovery time (Mullins may believe GDM is good to go but history is against).
Dunboyne:- plus - had Gevrey (close 2nd yesterday) 30L behind (off same OR as yesterday) over 20f on Heavy in November (though Dunboyne will race off 20lb higher mark on Saturday)
- probable plus - off 2lb lower mark that Saturday's, finished 5L ahead of Defi Bleu (close 3rd yesterday off 3lb lower OR) when 4th in the Kim Muir (though Kim Muir winner and 2nd, who fought out a neck and neck finish, didn't perform yesterday)
Mr Incredible:- probable plus - finished 13L clear of Defi Bleu in Kim Muir off same mark as for Saturday
Panda Boy's 5th slightly improves the look of the form of December's PP Hdcp (close 3rd off 4lb lower mark), which has otherwise looked a little limp (and PP Hdcp winner Real Steel flopped yesterday).Could possibly be a small plus for Diol Ker, Ain't That A Shame and Gabby's Cross
Just a little over 4 days until rubber meets road, for those interested here are my GN model’s final ratings for 2023.
As a reminder, and to put its top picks into some context, the model seeks to identify those runners whose profiles (a combination of CV and pedigree) have the “best fits” with either GN winners/near-missers or other placed horses since 2013.
The reason that, unlike most trend-following systems, it includes placed horses in its database and treats near-missers as winners is that it’s a mistake IMHO to think there’s a one-size-fits-all CV for GN success.
In fact, there are 3 Archetypes consistent with winning a modern GN and another for going close or making the frame and each represents a different permutation of age, career and other stats. Importantly, trends evolve and the near-missers of yesterday can give us a big clue as to tomorrow’s winner.
The winning-most Archetype since 2013, Archetype 1, has been:
5 Winners: Pineau De Re, Many Clouds, Rule The World, One For Arthur, Tiger Roll (2018)
Placed: Teaforthree, Rocky Creek, Shutthefrontdoor, The Last Samuri, Vics Canvas, Blaklion, Anibale Fly (2018), Fiddlerontheroof
But producer of the last 2 winners is an emerging Archetype 2, flagged up by placed horses and a near-misser in prior years, which enabled the model to identify Minella Times as one of its selections in 2021:
2 Winners: Minella Times (2021), Noble Yeats (2022)
Near-Misser: Magic Of Light (2019)
Placed: Double Seven (2014), Gilgamboa (2016), Farclas (2021)
Last but not least, the “Old Faithful” of the pre-2013 GNs, Archetype 3, which enabled the model to pick the winner or runner-up (each <4L) every year 2006~2012 and both of them in 2008. And it’s still a prolific producer of near-missers and frame-makers:
- Seasoned Chasers with creditable form at 28f+, and at the furthest trip attempted
2 Winners: Auroras Encore, Tiger Roll (2019)
Near-missers: Balthazar King, Saint Are (2015), Pleasant Company, Rathvinden, Any Second Now (2022)
Placed: Cappa Bleu, Oscar Time, Rare Bob, Alvarado (2014 & 15), Monbeg Dude, Goonyella, Cause Of Causes, Saint Are (2017), Gas Line Boy, Bless The Wings, Milansbar, Walk In The Mill, Anibale Fly (2019), Any Second Now (2021), Burrows Saint, Delta Work
Another Archetype 4 caters for seasoned chasers unexposed at 28f+ but with Grade 1 form at 24f+ and that have come down 14lbs+ in the handicap, that produced Balko Des Flos (6L 2nd in 2021) and Santini (4th last year) but, as yet, no winner. Rare Bob (5th in 2013) also met the Grade 1 and OR drop yardstick of this Archetype as well as Archetype 3.
Of course, the qualifying criteria for each Archetype is a little more complicated than these simple summaries and all must pass at least 9 of the model’s 11 specific tests, including all 6 “Golden” tests, passed by every horse finishing 1st~5th since 2013.
But, crucially, whatever the Archetype match for CV, the model also requires a contender to have one or more pedigree components (of varying rarity) in common with the 9 GN winners and all horses placed (at least up to 4th) since 2013. The number and combination of these Pedigree Pluses, from the model’s perspective, determines the strength of winning chance.
So, to 2023.
There are 5 runners that both match an Archetype and have the minimum requisite Pedigree profile to Win or place <10L. Ranking them by strongest GN-starred Pedigree Profile, they are:
And 2 that have an overall Profile consistent with placing 10~20L behind the winner:
And 1 that has the potential to smack gobs at 150/1 (6 places):
And the best of the rest:
- For the Brits – Our Power (narrow miss Archetype 2, narrow miss Pedigree profile)
Whichever runners carry your hard-earned, very best of luck.
Let’s hope all that set off come back safe and sound.
I think he hinted elsewhere it would "probably" be happening but maybe I misunderstood.
any reason why ?
Latest update from Accuweather indicates another 25mm of rain prior to a dry Saturday, but 13mm of it coming on Friday. BBC gives it 60% probability of raining for 12 solid hours on Friday, including during racing. They'll keep fresh ground round the inner on the GN course for Saturday, as usual.
That projected going of GS (Soft places) feels about right. Might even turn out principally Soft.
If so, too holding for Back On The Lash I would venture.
what about a forecast - pick 4 horses and any 2 finish 1st and 2nd ?
I know I need to wait 24 hours before it's changed, but bet365 not even letting me submit the limit for 24hrs time , has anyone else had this problem?
I'll never say never about any runner nowadays (hardly likely to with a 150/1 shot on my slip!), so please don't let any of my comments put you off, but this is why those 5 don't quite make it from my model's perspective:
Vanillier - fails 2 Golden stats: no form in a chase with 15+ runners / did not appear to get home in the 30f Nov Chase at the 2022 Festival. I'm not crazy about his sire (Martaline) whose progeny's record at 31.5f+ is 11 runs, 0 wins, 0 places
Lifetime Ambition - I really like this fella and would have been big on him. 2nd season chaser from an astute yard. Jumped the fences really well in the Grand Sefton last Nov. He's also a Spring Ground horse with a materially superior record mid March~mid May compared to other months of the season. Also linebred to Wild Risk, with some Bold Ruler for spice on his damside. BUT, all of that is overshadowed by his GN mark and weight (I reckon he has 5lbs+ too much based on his CV and needed to be on max 10-12). Simple stat: every runner to carry 11-03+ to make the frame in a GN since 2013 (9, including 2 winners) had notched that season in a 26f+ chase an RPR at least 5lbs more than their GNOR. He has no form at 26f and his career-best chase RPR is 153 (5lbs below his GNOR). He's even 6lbs badly off with The Big Dog who in turn is 13lbs badly off with The Big Breakaway.
But I still expect him to show up really well until may be after 2nd Bechers.
Le Milos - Lot of respect for him, especially with Skelton as trainer. However he fails a big stat with a hurdle RPR of only 125 from 13 runs. No horse with 5+ runs over hurdles has made the first 4 home in a GN with a best hurdles RPR <130. No Wild Risk at all in his pedigree doesn't bode well for getting the trip. He is related to Cogry but he did have multiple exposure to Wild Risk on his damside.
Diol Ker - maybe slightly unfortunate but 3 fails at 28~29f doesn't bode well. Nothing grabs me in his pedigree. Again, by Martaline
Capodanno - Again, principally weight. Carrying 11-05 no form at 26f+ is a biggy.
In fact, of all carrying 11-03+ this year, only Delta Work has the RPR premium (+10) to make the frame.
So after 45 minutes
Went through twitter and they gave me a link for live help.
Was asked a few questions and then told its been put through and will be OK from tomorrow.
Thing is I was never asked any details.
Of those 5, I would take a chance on Diol Ker having some rotten luck in those 3 marathon trips and although the form from 2022 doesn't look great, I do like the Christmas chase at Leopardstown as a staying chase guide usually. 80/1 seems overpriced.
The other one I keep coming back to is Vanillier and the Bobbyjo form. Again 20+/1 seems generous.
Fair points that Lifetime Ambition and Capodanno seem to have too much weight.
Le Milos - in the group of best UK form behind Corach Rambler and Mr Incredible but maybe the nationality is putting me off given how this race has gone!
It definitely feels like there could be a winner from nowhere this year. I suppose that happened last year but then Noble Yeates has gone on to come 4th in a Gold Cup and win a G2 backing it up. Could be more left field this time.
Here's to another year of success for you and the holiday fund @PeanutsMolloy and thanks again!
Wouldn’t argue at all with any of your points.
That Paddy Power Hdcp keeps coming up in the season’s campaign (last 2 GN winners and plenty of placed horses in recent years) and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if it repeats this year and Diol Ker has had some misfortune.
I’m just not convinced by that Bobbyjo form. The proximity of Now Where Or When is no easier to explain after yesterday (wasn’t terrible but not great either). But Cromwell is a terrific trainer and some smart people are tipping Vanillier.
I wouldn’t be put off by Le Milos being trained here. If any British trainer can beat the Irish in a handicap it’s Skelton IMO, plus I reckon this year the handicapper has imposed a penalty across most of the quality Irish contenders that levels the playing field, at least better than in prior years. That said, their record on the 2 soft ground GNs (if that’s what it is to be) since 2013 is even more dominant.
Best of luck. Hopefully we’ll all be in profit come 5.24pm on Saturday.
Cheers.