Come on Back on the Lash... since you tipped him i have had the odd bet on him NRNB of course, so first step lets hope he gets in.
This week any change i win from bets will be going to Dunboyne
Appreciate the vote of confidence @johnnybev1987 They're a good hedge for one another, ground-wise. There is a real chance IMO of a long-shot stunner this year but we need to dodge those slings and arrows. I certainly wouldn't want to omit Delta Work from a betting slip - as near to a banker to make the frame if he avoids misfortune as one's likely to see in a GN IMO. Fingers crossed.
I'll pick a random horse which you have highlighted each week when i have had a good win or two and just stake a small amount so nothing major just a bit of fun. Delta will probably be next on the cards
Come on Back on the Lash... since you tipped him i have had the odd bet on him NRNB of course, so first step lets hope he gets in.
This week any change i win from bets will be going to Dunboyne
Appreciate the vote of confidence @johnnybev1987 They're a good hedge for one another, ground-wise. There is a real chance IMO of a long-shot stunner this year but we need to dodge those slings and arrows. I certainly wouldn't want to omit Delta Work from a betting slip - as near to a banker to make the frame if he avoids misfortune as one's likely to see in a GN IMO. Fingers crossed.
I'll pick a random horse which you have highlighted each week when i have had a good win or two and just stake a small amount so nothing major just a bit of fun. Delta will probably be next on the cards
Using the word "banker", even somewhat qualified, has put the mockers on it obviously
Come on Back on the Lash... since you tipped him i have had the odd bet on him NRNB of course, so first step lets hope he gets in.
This week any change i win from bets will be going to Dunboyne
Appreciate the vote of confidence @johnnybev1987 They're a good hedge for one another, ground-wise. There is a real chance IMO of a long-shot stunner this year but we need to dodge those slings and arrows. I certainly wouldn't want to omit Delta Work from a betting slip - as near to a banker to make the frame if he avoids misfortune as one's likely to see in a GN IMO. Fingers crossed.
I'll pick a random horse which you have highlighted each week when i have had a good win or two and just stake a small amount so nothing major just a bit of fun. Delta will probably be next on the cards
Using the word "banker", even somewhat qualified, has put the mockers on it obviously
Come on Back on the Lash... since you tipped him i have had the odd bet on him NRNB of course, so first step lets hope he gets in.
This week any change i win from bets will be going to Dunboyne
Appreciate the vote of confidence @johnnybev1987 They're a good hedge for one another, ground-wise. There is a real chance IMO of a long-shot stunner this year but we need to dodge those slings and arrows. I certainly wouldn't want to omit Delta Work from a betting slip - as near to a banker to make the frame if he avoids misfortune as one's likely to see in a GN IMO. Fingers crossed.
I'll pick a random horse which you have highlighted each week when i have had a good win or two and just stake a small amount so nothing major just a bit of fun. Delta will probably be next on the cards
Using the word "banker", even somewhat qualified, has put the mockers on it obviously
No worries mate, no such thing as banker in betting whatever the sport. I only stake small so just the odd £5ew etc being added, but i've done alright the last few weeks so why not
@bobmunro, doing my planning for The Peanuts Grand National. Please could you let me know if your boys are doing the money back on e/w bets closer to the big day? 😉
@bobmunro, doing my planning for The Peanuts Grand National. Please could you let me know if your boys are doing the money back on e/w bets closer to the big day? 😉
@bobmunro, doing my planning for The Peanuts Grand National. Please could you let me know if your boys are doing the money back on e/w bets closer to the big day? 😉
@bobmunro, doing my planning for The Peanuts Grand National. Please could you let me know if your boys are doing the money back on e/w bets closer to the big day? 😉
Gordon Elliott facing a shortage of pilots for his National squadrons but, in any event, proving once again that his GN Weights' Day comments (about his foot soldiers, if not his Generals - apologies for mixing metaphors) are pretty much worthless:
Escaria Ten: Then: "just didn’t get home in the race last year". Now: "will likely go to the National" Coko Beach patently didn't get home last time and has 5lb higher GNOR but "will go to Aintree" Battleoverdoyen: Then: "We will have a roll of the dice in the race ... and ... go to the National". Now: "could go to the National or the Topham", in which he was patently outpaced last time. Dunboyne: Then: "I think the National is a race that is made for him". Now, more understandably: "he's also in the Irish National so we'll see what the ground is like before deciding"
Gordon Elliott facing a shortage of pilots for his National squadrons but, in any event, proving once again that his GN Weights' Day comments (about his foot soldiers, if not his Generals - apologies for mixing metaphors) are pretty much worthless:
Escaria Ten: Then: "just didn’t get home in the race last year". Now: "will likely go to the National" Coko Beach patently didn't get home last time and has 5lb higher GNOR but "will go to Aintree" Battleoverdoyen: Then: "We will have a roll of the dice in the race ... and ... go to the National". Now: "could go to the National or the Topham", in which he was patently outpaced last time. Dunboyne: Then: "I think the National is a race that is made for him". Now, more understandably: "he's also in the Irish National so we'll see what the ground is like before deciding"
I had a feeling I'd missed one: Fury Road: Then "will probably be a doubtful runner". Now: "will go to Aintree."
Interesting piece in RP about why the GN might suit him - seems like he's at his most obliging being among a lot of horses
Patrick Mullins has described Mr Incredible as "frustrating but fun" before his date with destiny in the Randox Grand National, a race the record-breaking champion amateur believes he has a "super chance in if he jumps off".
That, however, is a big 'if' as the story of Mr Incredible is indeed an incredible one, and those who are willing to take the 14-1 about him in the Aintree spectacular should know that the seven-year-old is anything but straightforward.
After refusing to race in a Grade 1 at Leopardstown in 2021, Mr Incredible then decided to jump five fences before refusing to go any further in a conditions chase at Tramore on his next start. It proved to be his final one for Henry de Bromhead.
Paul Byrne, the man who sold Noble Yeats to Robert Waley-Cohen before his famous Grand National triumph last year, decided Mr Incredible was a risk worth taking and snapped up the enigmatic chaser with Patrick Mullins, in the guise of assisting his father Willie, tasked with the mission of getting the best out of him.
"Frustrating but fun," laughed Mullins when asked to describe the recent Kim Muir third in three words.
"If he jumps off in the National, I think he has to have a super chance. He's at the right end of the weights and if he takes to it and jumps well, he could run a big race. He likes passing horses and in a big field like that he will always have horses to pass. Hopefully he jumps off. That's the main thing."
Delving deeper into Mr Incredible's personality and the training technique used to rekindle his enthusiasm for the game, Mullins added: "He's strong-willed, which is not unusual with sons of Westerner, but usually the problem is that they want to do too much, not too little!
"I think his previous connections probably lost a bit of patience in him after Tramore and Paul rang me up one day and wondered would he be worth taking a chance on. We always have one horse every season in the yard who is a bit quirky so I said why not.
"I remember Renneti refused to race one day and wouldn't even walk back to the parade ring. We had to get the horse ambulance to bring him back. Wicklow Brave wasn't straightforward either, so we’re used to having horses who aren’t exactly straightforward.
"When we got Mr Incredible initially we started training him just as though he were a normal horse. That went well for a while and then, all of a sudden, he started going 100 yards or so and he would just stop mid-gallop and send me flying over his head. Several times that happened. I soon made an executive decision to change riders. We changed riders quite a few times, but Paul Roche rides him out now and I think he's only had one fall off him.
"I will never forget one morning in particular when he jammed on with me and sent me flying out over his head again. All the horses went galloping by me but, unlike what every other horse would do in that situation, he didn't gallop away with the other horses but instead just stood there looking at me on the ground. Then all I could hear from a distance was Willie roaring, 'Get that horse out of here, he is not running from this stable!'
"I think they brought him hunting one day he was at Henry's and he was brilliant at it. He had a fantastic day. The fella riding him said to himself 'what a day'. Then when the hunt finished they went to load him up back on to the trailer to come home but he wouldn't budge for an hour. He had enjoyed himself so much that he didn't want to go home.
"Even when he was a four-year-old in Colin Bowe's, he would have had a Timeform squiggle next to his name! He was sold to Henry with that known. His antics are not something he has developed over time, it is how he has been from day one since he was young."
Mullins went on to elaborate on how he has managed to turn Mr Incredible into a genuine Grand National contender after finishing second in the Classic Chase at Warwick and third in the Kim Muir at the festival, where a shuddering error at the last halted his momentum.
He explained: "When we went through his form we realised he generally behaved himself in big fields. It was in smaller fields when he tended to misbehave. That's when the trouble started.
"I find with horses like him that there is always a way to get through to them. You just have to keep chopping and changing until something clicks and that's what has happened with him. We found out that being in the middle of the herd works for him and that's why the Grand National might actually suit.
"He goes out on our gallop every second day, but the lot he goes out with works differently to the rest of the lots. We sort the horses and they gather together with him in the middle and then they walk out together with him in the middle in a group. They jump off as a group. He basically has about 50 all around him all the time. That’s what works for him.
"Brian Hayes will ride him in the National and he gets on well with him. He's been away to different racecourses doing work on him and they gel well together.”
Vibe is that Quick Wave is out. Our Power definitely makes the cut.
Mullins confirms Gaillard Du Mesnil is to go for the GN - "has come out of Cheltenham very well. I'm very happy with him and Aintree would look a big possibility now. He has a nice weight, will handle the distance and the ground won't be a problem."
A strong contender, according to my model as well as the market, though a profile that suggests he's more likely to place than win. Separately, that 30f Novice Chase at the Festival, which he won a tad fortuitously, has a poor record for follow-up National runners the following month. Even Tiger PU'd in the Irish.
Peanuts... Is it true that you get a refund if you back horses who don't make the cut? If so it would be better to take Paddy Powers 80/1 rather than the 66/1 on offer from others offering NRNB for Back on the Lash as that seems to be the only reason he might not run.
Peanuts... Is it true that you get a refund if you back horses who don't make the cut? If so it would be better to take Paddy Powers 80/1 rather than the 66/1 on offer from others offering NRNB for Back on the Lash as that seems to be the only reason he might not run.
99% sure that’s true. So long as they declare him on 13 April, if he’s “balloted out” (i.e. there are 40+ above him also declared), you should get your stake back even if you backed him antepost (i.e. not NRNB). But, as always Sir @bobmunro is the Gospel on such matters. Perhaps he could kindly confirm please?
Peanuts... Is it true that you get a refund if you back horses who don't make the cut? If so it would be better to take Paddy Powers 80/1 rather than the 66/1 on offer from others offering NRNB for Back on the Lash as that seems to be the only reason he might not run.
Peanuts... Is it true that you get a refund if you back horses who don't make the cut? If so it would be better to take Paddy Powers 80/1 rather than the 66/1 on offer from others offering NRNB for Back on the Lash as that seems to be the only reason he might not run.
99% sure that’s true. So long as they declare him on 13 April, if he’s “balloted out” (i.e. there are 40+ above him also declared), you should get your stake back even if you backed him antepost (i.e. not NRNB). But, as always Sir @bobmunro is the Gospel on such matters. Perhaps he could kindly confirm please?
Absolutely correct. The only exception in ante-post all in, run or not, bets where you do not lose your stake is where a horse is not allowed to run due to a qualification criteria e.g. balloted out.
Edit: I would add a caveat though - backing at 66/1 NRNB does give you all the possible reasons he may not run - e.g. withdrawn due to a significant change in going, injured and so on whereas the 80/1 only gets your stake back if he is balloted out.
Peanuts... Is it true that you get a refund if you back horses who don't make the cut? If so it would be better to take Paddy Powers 80/1 rather than the 66/1 on offer from others offering NRNB for Back on the Lash as that seems to be the only reason he might not run.
99% sure that’s true. So long as they declare him on 13 April, if he’s “balloted out” (i.e. there are 40+ above him also declared), you should get your stake back even if you backed him antepost (i.e. not NRNB). But, as always Sir @bobmunro is the Gospel on such matters. Perhaps he could kindly confirm please?
Don’t rely on it 100% @RobinKeepsBobbin (would be worth a quick check of the Betfair terms) but I’m pretty sure it’s also true for the Betfair Win market. If so, as Bet365 is offering specials (e.g. place only - first 5) you can create your own e/w for Back On The Lash (even better than 66s) using a combo of Betfair Win and Bet365 place only. BOTL's currently offered in large size on Betfair Win at 90+ and 17 (place only) on Bet365, which if my maths isn't failing me is a place component = 80/1 e/w (1/5 odds). I've done a small top up on him that way but also it's what I've done with my entire interest in Battleoverdoyen and A Wave Of The Sea where they were offered Betfair Win >200 and bet365 is kindly offering the place only at 26 (= 125/1). Main fly in my ointment is if Elliott decides to run Battleoverdoyen in the Topham but que sera sera.
That place only market is worth looking at as there's some nice value there IMHO, especially on those less fancied by the market. Practically helpful for my purposes in constructing a book that backs my model's ratings economically. I've backed Gaillard Du Mesnil first 5 places as he's too short to have e/w as a member of a team that also includes Delta W and Mr Incredible, since my model reckons his profile to be strongly a frame-maker but not consistent with a typical winner.
I always have problems with Bet365. They told me my maximum stake is £2. I assumed it was a mistake but they sent me some waffle about trading decisions that can't be changed. So i don't bother with them. I mostly use Ladbrokes for the price boosts but they are only offering four places.
GGGGGGRRRR Paddy Power are now offering NRNB but they dropped the price to 66/1 The girl in the shop said someone put £50 each way on Our Power. Unusual for this early.
Anyone know when 365 start their half stake back offer? Guessing the Monday before?
Usually the day of or evening before isn't it?
I might be wrong but I have a feeling that it is something like 48 hours before i.e. straight after the final decs (bar any reserves getting in) are declared.
Anyone know when 365 start their half stake back offer? Guessing the Monday before?
Usually the day of or evening before isn't it?
I might be wrong but I have a feeling that it is something like 48 hours before i.e. straight after the final decs (bar any reserves getting in) are declared.
Comments
Probably
Escaria Ten: Then: "just didn’t get home in the race last year". Now: "will likely go to the National"
Coko Beach patently didn't get home last time and has 5lb higher GNOR but "will go to Aintree"
Battleoverdoyen: Then: "We will have a roll of the dice in the race ... and ... go to the National". Now: "could go to the National or the Topham", in which he was patently outpaced last time.
Dunboyne: Then: "I think the National is a race that is made for him". Now, more understandably: "he's also in the Irish National so we'll see what the ground is like before deciding"
Fury Road: Then "will probably be a doubtful runner". Now: "will go to Aintree."
Interesting piece in RP about why the GN might suit him - seems like he's at his most obliging being among a lot of horses
Patrick Mullins has described Mr Incredible as "frustrating but fun" before his date with destiny in the Randox Grand National, a race the record-breaking champion amateur believes he has a "super chance in if he jumps off".
That, however, is a big 'if' as the story of Mr Incredible is indeed an incredible one, and those who are willing to take the 14-1 about him in the Aintree spectacular should know that the seven-year-old is anything but straightforward.
After refusing to race in a Grade 1 at Leopardstown in 2021, Mr Incredible then decided to jump five fences before refusing to go any further in a conditions chase at Tramore on his next start. It proved to be his final one for Henry de Bromhead.
Paul Byrne, the man who sold Noble Yeats to Robert Waley-Cohen before his famous Grand National triumph last year, decided Mr Incredible was a risk worth taking and snapped up the enigmatic chaser with Patrick Mullins, in the guise of assisting his father Willie, tasked with the mission of getting the best out of him.
"Frustrating but fun," laughed Mullins when asked to describe the recent Kim Muir third in three words.
"If he jumps off in the National, I think he has to have a super chance. He's at the right end of the weights and if he takes to it and jumps well, he could run a big race. He likes passing horses and in a big field like that he will always have horses to pass. Hopefully he jumps off. That's the main thing."
Delving deeper into Mr Incredible's personality and the training technique used to rekindle his enthusiasm for the game, Mullins added: "He's strong-willed, which is not unusual with sons of Westerner, but usually the problem is that they want to do too much, not too little!
"I think his previous connections probably lost a bit of patience in him after Tramore and Paul rang me up one day and wondered would he be worth taking a chance on. We always have one horse every season in the yard who is a bit quirky so I said why not.
"I remember Renneti refused to race one day and wouldn't even walk back to the parade ring. We had to get the horse ambulance to bring him back. Wicklow Brave wasn't straightforward either, so we’re used to having horses who aren’t exactly straightforward.
"When we got Mr Incredible initially we started training him just as though he were a normal horse. That went well for a while and then, all of a sudden, he started going 100 yards or so and he would just stop mid-gallop and send me flying over his head. Several times that happened. I soon made an executive decision to change riders. We changed riders quite a few times, but Paul Roche rides him out now and I think he's only had one fall off him.
"I will never forget one morning in particular when he jammed on with me and sent me flying out over his head again. All the horses went galloping by me but, unlike what every other horse would do in that situation, he didn't gallop away with the other horses but instead just stood there looking at me on the ground. Then all I could hear from a distance was Willie roaring, 'Get that horse out of here, he is not running from this stable!'
"I think they brought him hunting one day he was at Henry's and he was brilliant at it. He had a fantastic day. The fella riding him said to himself 'what a day'. Then when the hunt finished they went to load him up back on to the trailer to come home but he wouldn't budge for an hour. He had enjoyed himself so much that he didn't want to go home.
"Even when he was a four-year-old in Colin Bowe's, he would have had a Timeform squiggle next to his name! He was sold to Henry with that known. His antics are not something he has developed over time, it is how he has been from day one since he was young."
Mullins went on to elaborate on how he has managed to turn Mr Incredible into a genuine Grand National contender after finishing second in the Classic Chase at Warwick and third in the Kim Muir at the festival, where a shuddering error at the last halted his momentum.
He explained: "When we went through his form we realised he generally behaved himself in big fields. It was in smaller fields when he tended to misbehave. That's when the trouble started.
"I find with horses like him that there is always a way to get through to them. You just have to keep chopping and changing until something clicks and that's what has happened with him. We found out that being in the middle of the herd works for him and that's why the Grand National might actually suit.
"He goes out on our gallop every second day, but the lot he goes out with works differently to the rest of the lots. We sort the horses and they gather together with him in the middle and then they walk out together with him in the middle in a group. They jump off as a group. He basically has about 50 all around him all the time. That’s what works for him.
"Brian Hayes will ride him in the National and he gets on well with him. He's been away to different racecourses doing work on him and they gel well together.”
Our Power definitely makes the cut.
Mullins confirms Gaillard Du Mesnil is to go for the GN - "has come out of Cheltenham very well. I'm very happy with him and Aintree would look a big possibility now. He has a nice weight, will handle the distance and the ground won't be a problem."
A strong contender, according to my model as well as the market, though a profile that suggests he's more likely to place than win. Separately, that 30f Novice Chase at the Festival, which he won a tad fortuitously, has a poor record for follow-up National runners the following month. Even Tiger PU'd in the Irish.
But, as always Sir @bobmunro is the Gospel on such matters. Perhaps he could kindly confirm please?
Good luck.
Much obliged.
If so, as Bet365 is offering specials (e.g. place only - first 5) you can create your own e/w for Back On The Lash (even better than 66s) using a combo of Betfair Win and Bet365 place only.
BOTL's currently offered in large size on Betfair Win at 90+ and 17 (place only) on Bet365, which if my maths isn't failing me is a place component = 80/1 e/w (1/5 odds).
I've done a small top up on him that way but also it's what I've done with my entire interest in Battleoverdoyen and A Wave Of The Sea where they were offered Betfair Win >200 and bet365 is kindly offering the place only at 26 (= 125/1).
Main fly in my ointment is if Elliott decides to run Battleoverdoyen in the Topham but que sera sera.
That place only market is worth looking at as there's some nice value there IMHO, especially on those less fancied by the market.
Practically helpful for my purposes in constructing a book that backs my model's ratings economically. I've backed Gaillard Du Mesnil first 5 places as he's too short to have e/w as a member of a team that also includes Delta W and Mr Incredible, since my model reckons his profile to be strongly a frame-maker but not consistent with a typical winner.