Noble Yeats came in from the clouds for 4th there. Huge GN trial (lmao, the GC being a GN trial - incredible)
Have to say, if he's OK (big IF), Hewick's run as a GN trial was sensational. BetFred winner and related to Seven Towers (Eider and Mid Nat winner with 11.00+). Got it all to do at the weights at Aintree and my model reckons he's "Big Run, No Cigar" if he gets his ground but who'd have thought he'd be so competitive today? Must have ground as Good as Aintree will allow.
Hey @PeanutsMolloy, I hope I haven’t missed your thoughts on the Midland GN?
Wide open this, with several with strong claims. Would love to see Iwilldoit do it with 12-00, and he could. But 6/1 is too short for me. My e/W shillings will be carried by THE TWO AMIGOS (10/1) who ran well in this 2 years ago off a 12lb higher mark and BUSHYPARK (14/1), despite being 2lbs O/H (has won off 3lb higher mark than tomorrow’s). He’s had an in and out time but absolutely romped home in the North Yorkshire National at Catterick on heavy last time (form of race looks decent) and carries the minimum 10-02 tomorrow. Should be a belter.
Review of the final day at the Festival as regards impact on my model's ratings of GN entries and possibly another Place Potential candidate at 50/1:
Fantastic runs and preps by Hewick, Conflated and Noble Yeats in a race won with an RPR184. Yet not quite enough in each case to elevate their pre-existing GN stat profiles, all remaining "Big Run, No Cigar". If he's OK after a shocking-looking fall and gets ground as good as Aintree will allow, Hewick could do a Crisp and lead the field for a long way before being defeated by topweight. No more could have been expected of Noble Yeats, picking up an RPR170 to confirm he has progressed materially this season as an 8yo. But, in a handicap and with 11-11, he's just got too much weight on his back according to my model to do not just a Tiger but a Red Rum. Because to win back to back GNs requires him to carry more than any horse has carried to win a GN since Rummy made it 2 on the bounce with 12-00 in 1974. At the weights, Conflated has the best GN profile of the 3 but only Minor Place Potential at best and it looks like Elliott's already ruled him out of a return to the track until Punchestown. Royale Pagaille ran creditably too but is a long way off my GN radar screen.
At Down Royal, Farclas, seemingly going fine called it a day after a lap of the course in the 26f conditions chase. Either a plan to give him just a blow or sadly something amiss once again. Either way, this game chap simply shouldn't line up at Aintree this year. Longhouse Poet won but did what was expected at the weights (and arguably was slightly fortunate). Martin Brassil is a terrific trainer but I do think he's scapegoated Darragh O'Keefe for the Poet's fine but tired 6th last time and protected a mark off which, once again, the Poet won't get home competitively. For me, he was out of gas by the last fence and, even if more conservatively ridden, my model doesn't see him going much better off the same OR155 and with 11-00. Roi Mage was close 2nd in the race he won last year. His trainer has done well with unfancied stayers but neither CV nor pedigree is strong enough to put the 11yo in business at Aintree.
Sadly Pencilfulloflead's morning defection was a result of being lame. A month until the big one, having had an adequate campaign and spin in the Bobbyjo, his stat-rating remains Place Potential if it's Soft at Aintree but obviously there has to be a concern as to whether he'll be fully fit come 15 April. Next forfeit stage is 28 March and, as a precaution, I've cashed out.
With none running in the Midlands National today, there's still one more race of note with 3 more GN entries - Monday's Grade 2 chase over 20f at Navan, in which Any Second Now will have his delayed final prep. At the weights, it should be a cakewalk for him against 6 rivals but at best, handed GN topweight by the handicapper, he's another with a "Big Run, No Cigar" stat-rating. Battleoverdoyen isn't the lost cause at Aintree that his 100/1 suggests and he could outrun those odds. There's a touch of the Balko Des Flos about this seasoned 10yo (a Grade 1 winner as a novice over hurdles and fences), whose only try beyond 25f was when tipping up midpoint in the Irish GN. But his profile's not quite in the same bracket and is short of the standard to make a punt of interest. Flashing away more brightly on my radar screen is VELVET ELVIS, as a first season chaser as a 6yo beaten by just 8L in last April's Irish GN - RP comment that he didn't seem to see out the trip unfair IMO, overlooking late traffic. Thrashed Mahler Mission (so unlucky in Tuesday's NH Cup won by Gaillard Du Mesnil) by 20L in a PtP. He's 11lbs wrong at the weights with Any Second Now on Monday but, over this trip, will appreciate the test on Heavy and if he were to run the favourite close, he'd have PLACE POTENTIAL at Aintree (50/1) with just 10-06 (and potentially the aforementioned Darragh O'Keefe) on his back. My eyes will be glued.
With Bet365 and WH both NRNB, so averting the risk of failing to make the cut or re-routing to Fairyhouse, and (seemingly) only one race to come as regards meaningful preps, that leaves us with only the variable of the weather to contend with and, while this may affect their relative chances, it only alters my model's top selections at the margin.
So, time to talk turkey and, while some of these selections may seem from left field, I once again refer to the great maxim:
‘…when you have eliminated all which is impossible, then whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.’ Though, of course, nothing is impossible in a Grand National ....... absolutely nothing!
Catering for different going, those with my model's best stat-ratings and of GN Winning Calibre or Strong Place Potential(in card order):
Decent Ground (= "Good to Soft")
Delta Work (best price NRNB, 14/1)
The Big Breakaway (50/1)
Mr Incredible (14/1)
Back On The Lash (66/1) - must have decent ground and not guaranteed to make the cut
Soft Ground (= "Soft" or "Heavy")
Delta Work
The Big Breakaway
Mr Incredible
Dunboyne (40/1) - must have soft ground and not guaranteed to make the cut
I've backed all 5 of these e/w, at longer or shorter.
In due course, I'll add (or not cash out) at least 1 (depending on odds) of the following:
Next Best = Minor Place Potential:
Conflated (14/1) - unlikely to run
Galvin (20/1) - decent ground preferred
Gaillard Du Mesnil (14/1) - may not run
Pencilfulloflead (40/1) - must have soft ground and has to overcome fitness concern
Velvet Elvis (50/1) - could elevate his profile to Strong Place Potential (handles most surfaces but slower ground probably best) if running Any Second Now close on Monday
Death Duty (100/1) - if he can avoid waving au revoir to his jockey half way round
AND from "Out Of Left-Field": could flop horribly but my model rates as a not totally inconceivable shock at a wild price:
A WAVE OF THE SEA (100/1 and 250+ on Betfair Win)- related to Cause Of Causes, a Grade 1 winner over hurdles, 7yo unexposed >24f (close 2nd in 2021 Munster National), with that rare and GN-starred array of Damsires 1~3, each with G1 flat winners at 12f+ among offspring. JP's colours and ran nicely up front for a long way before the cavalry overtook in the home straight in December's PP Hdcp, finishing 29L adrift; a race that's recently been a regular pre-GN appointment for JP's young hopefuls; Gilgamboa, Anibale Fly and Minella Times won or ran well in it before their respective 4th, 4th and 1st at Aintree. And Noble Yeats also ran respectably in it (27L 9th) last season. Not an unreasonable mark relative to his 4th in this season’s Munster National and carries 10-06.
Otherwise, "Big Run But No Cigar" potential:
Hewick - if decent ground
Any Second Now
Noble Yeats
Lifetime Ambition - very game and likeable, handled the fences really well in the Grand Sefton and best form in the spring BUT 6lbs too high in the handicap IMO.
@PeanutsMolloy sorry been trying to keep up with the thread but so far what have you backed?
I am on e/w come what may: Delta Work at 20s Mr Incredible at 16s The Big Breakaway at 33s
Also on: Dunboyne at 50s (but will cash out if not Soft) Back On The Lash at 100s (will cash out if not decent ground)
These 5 are the model’s top rated selections.
As I'll exit 1 of them I'll add a replacement. With that in mind I'm currently also on Minor Place candidates (according to the model) Galvin at 33s, Death Duty at 100s and Velvet Elvis at 50s (running tomorrow), 2 of which will be cashed out depending on ground and fancy (Galvin only a candidate to keep if decent ground, if Soft it will be Elvis or Death Duty, if he hasn’t gone to Fairyhouse).
Finally, as he was at a wild price on Betfair and isn't a million miles away on his stats and has a rare one in his favour, I’m also on A Wave Of The Sea at 100s (and c300 on Betfair win).
@PeanutsMolloy sorry been trying to keep up with the thread but so far what have you backed?
I am on e/w come what may: Delta Work at 20s Mr Incredible at 16s The Big Breakaway at 33s
Also on: Dunboyne at 50s (but will cash out if not Soft) Back On The Lash at 100s (will cash out if not decent ground)
These 5 are the model’s top rated selections.
As I'll exit 1 of them I'll add a replacement. With that in mind I'm currently also on Minor Place candidates (according to the model) Galvin at 33s, Death Duty at 100s and Velvet Elvis at 50s (running tomorrow), 2 of which will be cashed out depending on ground and fancy (Galvin only a candidate to keep if decent ground, if Soft it will be Elvis or Death Duty, if he hasn’t gone to Fairyhouse).
Finally, as he was at a wild price on Betfair and isn't a million miles away on his stats and has a rare one in his favour, I’m also on A Wave Of The Sea at 100s (and c300 on Betfair win).
In total it will be 6.
Thanks Peanuts. If you are able to, worth jumping off your current 33-1 on The Big Breakaway to 50-1 NRNB with Bet655 (5 places).
@PeanutsMolloy sorry been trying to keep up with the thread but so far what have you backed?
I am on e/w come what may: Delta Work at 20s Mr Incredible at 16s The Big Breakaway at 33s
Also on: Dunboyne at 50s (but will cash out if not Soft) Back On The Lash at 100s (will cash out if not decent ground)
These 5 are the model’s top rated selections.
As I'll exit 1 of them I'll add a replacement. With that in mind I'm currently also on Minor Place candidates (according to the model) Galvin at 33s, Death Duty at 100s and Velvet Elvis at 50s (running tomorrow), 2 of which will be cashed out depending on ground and fancy (Galvin only a candidate to keep if decent ground, if Soft it will be Elvis or Death Duty, if he hasn’t gone to Fairyhouse).
Finally, as he was at a wild price on Betfair and isn't a million miles away on his stats and has a rare one in his favour, I’m also on A Wave Of The Sea at 100s (and c300 on Betfair win).
In total it will be 6.
Thanks Peanuts. If you are able to, worth jumping off your current 33-1 on The Big Breakaway to 50-1 NRNB with Bet655 (5 places).
Many thanks for the suggestion @meldrew66 Cos he’s drifted the cash out value has fallen so it’s swings and roundabouts unfortunately. That’s the risk of taking an early price but at least I got on others at higher prices than they are now so even-Steven more or less. Cheers though.
A quick stat-drop, for those drawn to runners at the top of the weights.
Of the runners with big weights (11-04+) that have won the GN or made the frame (to 5th) since 2013, every single one of them had notched a best RPR (Racing Post Rating) in a chase over 25.5f+ since the previous November that was at least 6 > GNOR (allotted handicap mark for the GN):
Rocky Creek [11-05] 5th 2014: +6 Many Clouds [11-09] Won 2016: +6 [without 5lbs weight compression for his GNOR he would have struggled to make the frame IMHO] Anibale Fly [11-08] 4th 2018: +10 Tiger Roll [11-05] Won 2019: +12 Anibale Fly [11-10] 5th 2019: +10 Any Second Now [11-08] 2nd 2022: +8 Delta Work [11-09] 3rd 2022: +6 Fiddlerontheroof [11-04] 5th 2022: +9
Of this year's remaining entries, only DELTA WORK [11-04] has done so (+9 on his XC win at the Festival).
Any Second Now [11-12]: n/a (+3 on his GN 2nd last April) Conflated [11-12]: +4 (+5 on 24f last April) Noble Yeats [11-11]: +4 (+5 on 25f chase in December) Galvin [11-11]: 0 (+2 on Gold Cup last year) Royal Pagaille [11-08]: +1 (+5 on Gold Cup last year) Envoi Allen [11-08]: n/a (+4 on 24f in Nov) Fury Road [11-06]: n/a (+1 on 24f in Feb) The Big Dog [11-05]: -4 Capodanno [11-05]: n/a (0 on 24f last April) Delta Work [11-04]: +9 Sam Brown [11-04]: n/a (+4 on 25f last April)
The one reason I may hold on to my e/w interest in Galvin at 33s is that his fine XC 2nd was on unfavoured ground and that, after an injury-affected winter, he wasn't fully hard fit according to Elliott. He will be at Aintree and will likely have ground to suit but, even so, only rates as Minor Place Potential according to my model.
Velvet Elvis 7 lengths behind Any Second Now, in second place, worth adding Peanuts?
Indeed. In receipt of just 3lbs today from Any Second Now but will receive 20lbs from him at Aintree, though only 20f today and you have to say ASN did it comfortably enough. I added him at 50s in anticipation, he's now cut to 40s. Nice run that improves his GN stat-rating to Minor Place Potential but not quite good enough today to elevate him to anything stronger. Whether to back him (or in my case, not cash out the bet), is a tricky one but I think ground is the key. His fine 6th (8L) as a 6yo in last April's Irish GN was on Y but it was a slowish time despite being highly competitive, so one has to think it was on the Soft side of Y and his trainer has said that "Soft ground is more to his taste" (Heavy today). I watched the race today and his jumping tends to be a little slow if he's not meeting a fence on a stride and my concern is that the pace of a decent ground GN could put a bit too much pressure on his jumping. Impossible to say for sure but as slower ground would likely suit him best, I'll keep my e/w interest if it's Soft but likely jettison him for (yet) another 100/1 shot I've been putting the slide rule over again and who has already shown he handles the fences on decent ground!!! Sorry it's a maybe rather than a yes or no to your question but more very soon.
They usually fiddle it so the going is good to soft
I would use the word 'preparation' rather than fiddle. They will always try to get ideal ground for the conditions of the race - i.e. good to soft or soft. If it's too firm (Firm side of good) then for safety reasons it needs to be watered, and if it's too soft (heavy) then the challenge for the horses is considered too great and they won't water.
It's a very tricky call - get the weather forecast wrong and it can cause all sorts of issues.
Every year I wonder if this is the year this thread will pay off my mortgage!
Judging by the brochure that's just appeared on the coffee table, I'll need to
re-mortgage to pay for Mrs Molloy’s choice of holiday this year, so I'm hoping for a Mon Mome-style
injection of liquidity myself.
And dare I say, given the greater difficulty
faced by topweights now that compression has ended and the paucity of slam dunk
chances (that don't come with an unpredictable
risk like Mr Incredible) throughout the rest of the card, we may well get another 100/1 shock this April.
Because, besides Back On The Lash (now 66/1 NRNB) who has a Winning Calibre Profile providing he gets decent ground, there are 3 runners at 100/1 that have a stat-profile not of that strength but not a million miles away from that of frame-makers. And, if so, just as Black Apalachi tipping up at 2nd Bechers in 2009 set it up for Mon Mome to come from way back to win at 100/1, maybe the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune can deliver yet another GN crowd-stunner and cruise-funder.
They are:
A WAVE OF THE SEA (100/1 NRNB) - guaranteed a run
Already mentioned and backed at
100/1. To recap:
- 7yo Grade 1 winner over
hurdles, unexposed >24f (close 2nd in 2021 Munster National
on Soft)
- Damside of Pedigree is very
interesting:
From the family of Cause Of Causes (2nd 4.5L 2017 GN)
Has a GN-starred array of
Damsires 1~3, each of which have G1 flat winners at 12f+ among
offspring. Only 27 runners in the GN 2013~22 (7.6%) had such an array [at 10f+],
including 5 of the 9 winners and a near-misser, his relative Cause Of Causes
(though he had a different DS array)
Also has the electric combo of
Wild Risk and Bold Ruler on his damside (only 11% of runners had this, including 8
of 16 GN winners and near-missers)
- JP's colours and ran nicely up
front for a long way before the cavalry overtook in the home straight in
December's 3m PP Hdcp, finishing 29L adrift; a race that's recently been a regular
pre-GN appointment for JP's young hopefuls; Gilgamboa, Anibale Fly and Minella
Times won or ran well in it before their respective 4th, 4th and 1st at
Aintree. And Noble Yeats also ran respectably in it (27L 9th) last
season.
- Looks relatively well-treated among the Irish at GNOR147 based
on his 4th in this October's Munster National (puts him 10lbs well-in with The
Big Dog, 25/1) and will carry just 10-06.
- He may or may not handle the
fences and may or may not get the trip but, if he does, he has the pedigree
profile of a GN Winner
Conclusion: a shit or bust chance but at 100/1 and c300 Betfair win, that damside pedigree is one I want on my team
BATTLEOVERDOYEN (100/1 NRNB) - a definite intended GN runner (not entered for Fairyhouse) and needs only another 4 to come out to be assured of a run.
The closer you compare him with Balk Des Flos, also
a 100/1 shot when 2nd 6.5L in the 2021 GN, the more spooky the parallel. Aside from having Gordon Elliott as
trainer:
- Exactly like BdF, a 10yo with 31 races
Under Rules on his CV.
- Exactly like BdF, unexposed >25f save for 1 uncompleted spin over further: in last April's Irish GN (Festival XC in BdF's case) which ended with a Fall (UR) in both cases at the 15th fence (travelling nicely and in contention)
- Double Grade 1 winner, over hurdles and at 3m
over fences (BdF a Ryanair chase winner and Gr 1 near-misser at
3m)
- Has come down 15lbs in the handicap in
last 2 years to GNOR 145 (from 160). BdF's mark had fallen 17lbs over 2.5
years to GNOR 152 (high 169) and will carry just 10-04 at Aintree
- Both sold by Gigginstown in the year of
the GN but remaining with Elliott
- Battleoverdoyen doesn't have as GN-strong
a pedigree as BdF but does share some interesting linebreeding (including to Wild Risk) and, like A
Wave Of The Sea, has an array of Damsires 1~3 that have G1 flat winners
among their offspring (albeit 2 of them at 8f, so not quite the same calibre in a GN stat context)
- What he does have (that BdF didn't) is
experience of the GN fences: he had a
quietly very impressive spin over the GN fences in last April's Topham on GS but in a quick time. After ballooning the first, hetravelled and jumped the remaining fences really well to make ground from
the rear to be in touch in 6th (8L), going nicely until the leaders sped away crossing
the Melling Road - he stayed on in 10th but lacked the gears needed to be
in the mix over 21f. For a horse that sometimes doesn't take an interest, he was encouragingly up for the spruce and the typical pattern of those that take to the GN fences is that they love going over them again.
Conclusion: There's a reason the market rates him 100/1, because it
takes a leap of faith to imagine a 10 yo that's had better days in the mix at the business end - but
the same was absolutely true of Balk Des Flos and there are interesting, uncommon aspects to his profile to suggest it could be deja vu all over again.
Sufficient for me to add him to my e/w team.
Finally, DEATH DUTY (100/1 NRNB)
UR'd last GN at the 8th and bringing half a fence with him at some point is the big risk with him. He was on my team then and, despite now being a 12yo, the profile's not materially different. However, I'll save a conclusion and write up on him until it's clearer whether Fairyhouse or Aintree will be his destination. His jumping may also benefit from slower ground.
So these are the Model's Final Ratings and status of my e/w bets:
WINNING CALIBRE / STRONG PLACE POTENTIAL:
DELTA WORK (backed at 20/1 NRNB)
MR INCREDIBLE (16/1)
THE BIG BREAKAWAY (33/1)
BACK ON THE LASH - ONLY ON GS (100/1 NRNB, will cash out if ground against)
DUNBOYNE - ONLY ON SOFT (50/1, will cash out if ground against)
Next Best = MINOR PLACE POTENTIAL:
Conflated - unlikely to run
GALVIN - decent ground preferred (33/1, will cash out if ground against)
Gaillard Du Mesnil - may not run and too short to back for Minor Place Potential
Pencilfulloflead - must have soft ground and has to overcome fitness concern (cashed out position)
VELVET ELVIS - slower ground probably preferred (50/1 NRNB, will cash out if ground against)
Death Duty - if he can avoid waving au revoir to his jockey half way round / may run in Irish GN
And these are my deep-value picks from the edge of the Model's Radar Screen:
A WAVE OF THE SEA (100/1 NRNB) - Shit or Bust
BATTLEOVERDOYEN (100/1 NRNB) - Potential Balko Des Flos Deja Vu
Despite having some 100/1 shots that may get the old juices flowing because they aren't necessarily the lost causes the market reckons them to be, whichever horses you decide to back, PLEASE don't bet more than you can afford to lose. It's served me well since 2006 but this could be the year my model finally does career off the road and end up a burning wreck in a ditch.
Every year I wonder if this is the year this thread will pay off my mortgage!
Judging by the brochure that's just appeared on the coffee table, I'll need to
re-mortgage to pay for Mrs Molloy’s choice of holiday this year, so I'm hoping for a Mon Mome-style
injection of liquidity myself.
And dare I say, given the greater difficulty
faced by topweights now that compression has ended and the paucity of slam dunk
chances (that don't come with an unpredictable
risk like Mr Incredible) throughout the rest of the card, we may well get another 100/1 shock this April.
Because, besides Back On The Lash (now 66/1 NRNB) who is a Winning Calibre Profile providing he gets decent ground, there are 3 runners at 100/1 that have a stat-profile not of that strength but not a million miles away from that of frame-makers. And, if so, just as Black Apalachi tipping up at 2nd Bechers in 2009 set it up for Mon Mome to come from way back to win at 100/1, maybe the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune can deliver yet another GN crowd-stunner and cruise-funder.
They are:
A WAVE OF THE SEA (100/1 NRNB) - guaranteed a run
Already mentioned and backed at
100/1. To recap:
- 7yo Grade 1 winner over
hurdles, unexposed >24f (close 2nd in 2021 Munster National
on Soft)
- Damside of Pedigree is very
interesting:
From the family of Cause of
Causes (2nd 4.5L 2016 GN)
Has a GN-starred array of
Damsires 1~3, each of which have G1 flat winners at 12f+ among
offspring. Only 27 runners in the GN 2013~22 (7.6%) had such an array [at 10f+],
including 5 of the 9 winners and a near-misser, his relative Cause Of Causes
(though he had a different DS array)
Also has the electric combo of
Wild Risk and Bold Ruler on his damside (only 11% of runners had this, including 8
of 16 GN winners and near-missers)
- JP's colours and ran nicely up
front for a long way before the cavalry overtook in the home straight in
December's 3m PP Hdcp, finishing 29L adrift; a race that's recently been a regular
pre-GN appointment for JP's young hopefuls; Gilgamboa, Anibale Fly and Minella
Times won or ran well in it before their respective 4th, 4th and 1st at
Aintree. And Noble Yeats also ran respectably in it (27L 9th) last
season.
- Looks relatively well-treated among the Irish at GNOR147 based
on his 4th in this October's Munster National (puts him 10lbs well-in with The
Big Dog, 25/1) and will carry just 10-06.
- He may or may not handle the
fences and may or may not get the trip but, if he does, he has the pedigree
profile of a GN Winner
Conclusion: a shit or bust chance but at 100/1 and c300 Betfair win, that damside pedigree is one I want on my team
BATTLEOVERDOYEN (100/1 NRNB) - a definite intended GN runner (not entered for Fairyhouse) and needs only another 4 to come out to be assured of a run.
The closer you compare him with Balk Des Flos, also
a 100/1 shot when 2nd 6.5L in the 2021 GN, the more spooky the parallel. Aside from having Gordon Elliott as
trainer:
- Exactly like BdF, a 10yo with 31 races
Under Rules on his CV.
- Exactly like BdF, unexposed >25f save for 1 uncompleted spin over further: in last April's Irish GN (Festival XC in BdF's case) which ended with a Fall (UR) in both cases at the 15th fence (travelling nicely and in contention)
- A Grade 1 winner over hurdles and at 3m
over fences (BdF a Ryanair chase winner and Gr 1 near-misser at
3m)
- Has come down 15lbs in the handicap in
last 2 years to GNOR 145 (from 160). BdF's mark had fallen 17lbs over 2.5
years to GNOR 152 (high 169) and will carry just 10-04 at Aintree
- Both sold by Gigginstown in the year of
the GN but remaining with Elliott
- Battleoverdoyen doesn't have as GN-strong
a pedigree as BdF but does share some interesting linebreeding (including to Wild Risk) and, like A
Wave Of The Sea, has an array of Damsires 1~3 that have G1 flat winners
among their offspring (albeit 2 of them at 8f, so not quite the same calibre in a GN stat context)
- What he does have (that BdF didn't) is
experience of the GN fences: he had a
quietly very impressive spin over the GN fences in last April's Topham on GS but in a quick time. After ballooning the first, hetravelled and jumped the remaining fences really well to make ground from
the rear to be in touch in 6th (8L), going nicely until the leaders sped away crossing
the Melling Road - he stayed on in 10th but lacked the gears needed to be
in the mix over 21f. For a horse that sometimes doesn't take an interest, he was encouragingly up for the spruce and the typical pattern of those that take to the GN fences is that they love going over them again.
Conclusion: There's a reason the market rates him 100/1, because it
takes a leap of faith to imagine a 10 yo that's had better days in the mix at the business end - but
the same was absolutely true of Balk Des Flos and there are interesting, uncommon aspects to his profile to suggest it could be deja vu all over again.
Sufficient for me to add him to my e/w team.
Finally, DEATH DUTY (100/1 NRNB)
UR'd last GN at the 8th and not bringing half a fence with him at some point is the big risk with him. He was on my team then and, despite now being a 12yo, the profile's not materially different. However, I'll save a conclusion and write up on him until it's clearer whether Fairyhouse or Aintree will be his destination. His jumping may also benefit from slower ground.
So these are the Model's Final Ratings and status of my e/w bets:
WINNING CALIBRE / STRONG PLACE POTENTIAL:
DELTA WORK (backed at 20/1 NRNB)
MR INCREDIBLE (16/1)
THE BIG BREAKAWAY (33/1)
BACK ON THE LASH - ONLY ON GS (100/1 NRNB, will cash out if ground against)
DUNBOYNE - ONLY ON SOFT (50/1, will cash out if ground against)
Next Best = MINOR PLACE POTENTIAL:
Conflated - unlikely to run
GALVIN - decent ground preferred (33/1, will cash out if ground against)
Gaillard Du Mesnil - may not run and too short to back for Minor Place Potential
Pencilfulloflead - must have soft ground and has to overcome fitness concern (cashed out position)
VELVET ELVIS - slower ground probably preferred (50/1 NRNB, will cash out if ground against)
Death Duty - if he can avoid waving au revoir to his jockey half way round / may run in Irish GN
And these are my deep-value picks from the edge of the Model's Radar Screen:
A WAVE OF THE SEA (100/1 NRNB) - Shit or Bust
BATTLEOVERDOYEN (100/1 NRNB) - Potential Balko Des Flos Deja Vu
Despite having some 100/1 shots that may get the old juices flowing because they aren't necessarily the lost causes the market reckons them to be, whichever horses you decide to back, PLEASE don't bet more than you can afford to lose. It's served me well since 2006 but this could be the year my model finally does career off the road and end up a burning wreck in a ditch.
Just remortgaged me house and bashed it on a wave of the sea. Happy days!
Comments
BetFred winner and related to Seven Towers (Eider and Mid Nat winner with 11.00+).
Got it all to do at the weights at Aintree and my model reckons he's "Big Run, No Cigar" if he gets his ground but who'd have thought he'd be so competitive today?
Must have ground as Good as Aintree will allow.
Would love to see Iwilldoit do it with 12-00, and he could. But 6/1 is too short for me.
My e/W shillings will be carried by THE TWO AMIGOS (10/1) who ran well in this 2 years ago off a 12lb higher mark and BUSHYPARK (14/1), despite being 2lbs O/H (has won off 3lb higher mark than tomorrow’s). He’s had an in and out time but absolutely romped home in the North Yorkshire National at Catterick on heavy last time (form of race looks decent) and carries the minimum 10-02 tomorrow.
Should be a belter.
Review of the final day at the Festival as regards impact on my model's ratings of GN entries and possibly another Place Potential candidate at 50/1:
Fantastic runs and preps by Hewick, Conflated and Noble Yeats in a race won with an RPR184. Yet not quite enough in each case to elevate their pre-existing GN stat profiles, all remaining "Big Run, No Cigar".
If he's OK after a shocking-looking fall and gets ground as good as Aintree will allow, Hewick could do a Crisp and lead the field for a long way before being defeated by topweight.
No more could have been expected of Noble Yeats, picking up an RPR170 to confirm he has progressed materially this season as an 8yo. But, in a handicap and with 11-11, he's just got too much weight on his back according to my model to do not just a Tiger but a Red Rum. Because to win back to back GNs requires him to carry more than any horse has carried to win a GN since Rummy made it 2 on the bounce with 12-00 in 1974.
At the weights, Conflated has the best GN profile of the 3 but only Minor Place Potential at best and it looks like Elliott's already ruled him out of a return to the track until Punchestown.
Royale Pagaille ran creditably too but is a long way off my GN radar screen.
At Down Royal, Farclas, seemingly going fine called it a day after a lap of the course in the 26f conditions chase. Either a plan to give him just a blow or sadly something amiss once again. Either way, this game chap simply shouldn't line up at Aintree this year.
Longhouse Poet won but did what was expected at the weights (and arguably was slightly fortunate). Martin Brassil is a terrific trainer but I do think he's scapegoated Darragh O'Keefe for the Poet's fine but tired 6th last time and protected a mark off which, once again, the Poet won't get home competitively. For me, he was out of gas by the last fence and, even if more conservatively ridden, my model doesn't see him going much better off the same OR155 and with 11-00.
Roi Mage was close 2nd in the race he won last year. His trainer has done well with unfancied stayers but neither CV nor pedigree is strong enough to put the 11yo in business at Aintree.
Sadly Pencilfulloflead's morning defection was a result of being lame. A month until the big one, having had an adequate campaign and spin in the Bobbyjo, his stat-rating remains Place Potential if it's Soft at Aintree but obviously there has to be a concern as to whether he'll be fully fit come 15 April.
Next forfeit stage is 28 March and, as a precaution, I've cashed out.
With none running in the Midlands National today, there's still one more race of note with 3 more GN entries - Monday's Grade 2 chase over 20f at Navan, in which Any Second Now will have his delayed final prep. At the weights, it should be a cakewalk for him against 6 rivals but at best, handed GN topweight by the handicapper, he's another with a "Big Run, No Cigar" stat-rating.
Battleoverdoyen isn't the lost cause at Aintree that his 100/1 suggests and he could outrun those odds. There's a touch of the Balko Des Flos about this seasoned 10yo (a Grade 1 winner as a novice over hurdles and fences), whose only try beyond 25f was when tipping up midpoint in the Irish GN. But his profile's not quite in the same bracket and is short of the standard to make a punt of interest.
Flashing away more brightly on my radar screen is VELVET ELVIS, as a first season chaser as a 6yo beaten by just 8L in last April's Irish GN - RP comment that he didn't seem to see out the trip unfair IMO, overlooking late traffic. Thrashed Mahler Mission (so unlucky in Tuesday's NH Cup won by Gaillard Du Mesnil) by 20L in a PtP.
He's 11lbs wrong at the weights with Any Second Now on Monday but, over this trip, will appreciate the test on Heavy and if he were to run the favourite close, he'd have PLACE POTENTIAL at Aintree (50/1) with just 10-06 (and potentially the aforementioned Darragh O'Keefe) on his back. My eyes will be glued.
beat me to it. Cheers Len.
With Bet365 and WH both NRNB, so averting the risk of failing to make the cut or re-routing to Fairyhouse, and (seemingly) only one race to come as regards meaningful preps, that leaves us with only the variable of the weather to contend with and, while this may affect their relative chances, it only alters my model's top selections at the margin.
So, time to talk turkey and, while some of these selections may seem from left field, I once again refer to the great maxim:
‘…when you have eliminated all which is impossible, then whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.’ Though, of course, nothing is impossible in a Grand National ....... absolutely nothing!
Catering for different going, those with my model's best stat-ratings and of GN Winning Calibre or Strong Place Potential (in card order):
Decent Ground (= "Good to Soft")
- Delta Work (best price NRNB, 14/1)
- The Big Breakaway (50/1)
- Mr Incredible (14/1)
- Back On The Lash (66/1) - must have decent ground and not guaranteed to make the cut
Soft Ground (= "Soft" or "Heavy")- Delta Work
- The Big Breakaway
- Mr Incredible
- Dunboyne (40/1) - must have soft ground and not guaranteed to make the cut
I've backed all 5 of these e/w, at longer or shorter.In due course, I'll add (or not cash out) at least 1 (depending on odds) of the following:
Next Best = Minor Place Potential:
- Conflated (14/1) - unlikely to run
- Galvin (20/1) - decent ground preferred
- Gaillard Du Mesnil (14/1) - may not run
- Pencilfulloflead (40/1) - must have soft ground and has to overcome fitness concern
- Velvet Elvis (50/1) - could elevate his profile to Strong Place Potential (handles most surfaces but slower ground probably best) if running Any Second Now close on Monday
- Death Duty (100/1) - if he can avoid waving au revoir to his jockey half way round
AND from "Out Of Left-Field": could flop horribly but my model rates as a not totally inconceivable shock at a wild price:Otherwise, "Big Run But No Cigar" potential:
Will endeavour to make amends at Aintree.
https://www.timeform.com/grand-national/news/hewick-to-miss-grand-national-1932023
Delta Work at 20s
Mr Incredible at 16s
The Big Breakaway at 33s
Also on:
Dunboyne at 50s (but will cash out if not Soft)
Back On The Lash at 100s (will cash out if not decent ground)
These 5 are the model’s top rated selections.
Finally, as he was at a wild price on Betfair and isn't a million miles away on his stats and has a rare one in his favour, I’m also on A Wave Of The Sea at 100s (and c300 on Betfair win).
In total it will be 6.
Cos he’s drifted the cash out value has fallen so it’s swings and roundabouts unfortunately.
That’s the risk of taking an early price but at least I got on others at higher prices than they are now so even-Steven more or less.
Cheers though.
Of the runners with big weights (11-04+) that have won the GN or made the frame (to 5th) since 2013, every single one of them had notched a best RPR (Racing Post Rating) in a chase over 25.5f+ since the previous November that was at least 6 > GNOR (allotted handicap mark for the GN):
Rocky Creek [11-05] 5th 2014: +6
Many Clouds [11-09] Won 2016: +6 [without 5lbs weight compression for his GNOR he would have struggled to make the frame IMHO]
Anibale Fly [11-08] 4th 2018: +10
Tiger Roll [11-05] Won 2019: +12
Anibale Fly [11-10] 5th 2019: +10
Any Second Now [11-08] 2nd 2022: +8
Delta Work [11-09] 3rd 2022: +6
Fiddlerontheroof [11-04] 5th 2022: +9
Of this year's remaining entries, only DELTA WORK [11-04] has done so (+9 on his XC win at the Festival).
Any Second Now [11-12]: n/a (+3 on his GN 2nd last April)
Conflated [11-12]: +4 (+5 on 24f last April)
Noble Yeats [11-11]: +4 (+5 on 25f chase in December)
Galvin [11-11]: 0 (+2 on Gold Cup last year)
Royal Pagaille [11-08]: +1 (+5 on Gold Cup last year)
Envoi Allen [11-08]: n/a (+4 on 24f in Nov)
Fury Road [11-06]: n/a (+1 on 24f in Feb)
The Big Dog [11-05]: -4
Capodanno [11-05]: n/a (0 on 24f last April)
Delta Work [11-04]: +9
Sam Brown [11-04]: n/a (+4 on 25f last April)
The one reason I may hold on to my e/w interest in Galvin at 33s is that his fine XC 2nd was on unfavoured ground and that, after an injury-affected winter, he wasn't fully hard fit according to Elliott. He will be at Aintree and will likely have ground to suit but, even so, only rates as Minor Place Potential according to my model.
I added him at 50s in anticipation, he's now cut to 40s.
Nice run that improves his GN stat-rating to Minor Place Potential but not quite good enough today to elevate him to anything stronger.
Whether to back him (or in my case, not cash out the bet), is a tricky one but I think ground is the key.
His fine 6th (8L) as a 6yo in last April's Irish GN was on Y but it was a slowish time despite being highly competitive, so one has to think it was on the Soft side of Y and his trainer has said that "Soft ground is more to his taste" (Heavy today).
I watched the race today and his jumping tends to be a little slow if he's not meeting a fence on a stride and my concern is that the pace of a decent ground GN could put a bit too much pressure on his jumping.
Impossible to say for sure but as slower ground would likely suit him best, I'll keep my e/w interest if it's Soft but likely jettison him for (yet) another 100/1 shot I've been putting the slide rule over again and who has already shown he handles the fences on decent ground!!!
Sorry it's a maybe rather than a yes or no to your question but more very soon.
It's a very tricky call - get the weather forecast wrong and it can cause all sorts of issues.
Judging by the brochure that's just appeared on the coffee table, I'll need to re-mortgage to pay for Mrs Molloy’s choice of holiday this year, so I'm hoping for a Mon Mome-style injection of liquidity myself.
And dare I say, given the greater difficulty faced by topweights now that compression has ended and the paucity of slam dunk chances (that don't come with an unpredictable risk like Mr Incredible) throughout the rest of the card, we may well get another 100/1 shock this April.
Because, besides Back On The Lash (now 66/1 NRNB) who has a Winning Calibre Profile providing he gets decent ground, there are 3 runners at 100/1 that have a stat-profile not of that strength but not a million miles away from that of frame-makers. And, if so, just as Black Apalachi tipping up at 2nd Bechers in 2009 set it up for Mon Mome to come from way back to win at 100/1, maybe the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune can deliver yet another GN crowd-stunner and cruise-funder.
They are:
A WAVE OF THE SEA (100/1 NRNB) - guaranteed a run
Already mentioned and backed at 100/1. To recap:- 7yo Grade 1 winner over hurdles, unexposed >24f (close 2nd in 2021 Munster National on Soft)
- Damside of Pedigree is very interesting:
- JP's colours and ran nicely up front for a long way before the cavalry overtook in the home straight in December's 3m PP Hdcp, finishing 29L adrift; a race that's recently been a regular pre-GN appointment for JP's young hopefuls; Gilgamboa, Anibale Fly and Minella Times won or ran well in it before their respective 4th, 4th and 1st at Aintree. And Noble Yeats also ran respectably in it (27L 9th) last season.
- Looks relatively well-treated among the Irish at GNOR147 based on his 4th in this October's Munster National (puts him 10lbs well-in with The Big Dog, 25/1) and will carry just 10-06.
- He may or may not handle the fences and may or may not get the trip but, if he does, he has the pedigree profile of a GN WinnerConclusion: a shit or bust chance but at 100/1 and c300 Betfair win, that damside pedigree is one I want on my team
BATTLEOVERDOYEN (100/1 NRNB) - a definite intended GN runner (not entered for Fairyhouse) and needs only another 4 to come out to be assured of a run.
- Exactly like BdF, a 10yo with 31 races Under Rules on his CV.The closer you compare him with Balk Des Flos, also a 100/1 shot when 2nd 6.5L in the 2021 GN, the more spooky the parallel. Aside from having Gordon Elliott as trainer:
- Exactly like BdF, unexposed >25f save for 1 uncompleted spin over further: in last April's Irish GN (Festival XC in BdF's case) which ended with a Fall (UR) in both cases at the 15th fence (travelling nicely and in contention)
- Double Grade 1 winner, over hurdles and at 3m over fences (BdF a Ryanair chase winner and Gr 1 near-misser at 3m)
- Has come down 15lbs in the handicap in last 2 years to GNOR 145 (from 160). BdF's mark had fallen 17lbs over 2.5 years to GNOR 152 (high 169) and will carry just 10-04 at Aintree
- Both sold by Gigginstown in the year of the GN but remaining with Elliott
- Battleoverdoyen doesn't have as GN-strong a pedigree as BdF but does share some interesting linebreeding (including to Wild Risk) and, like A Wave Of The Sea, has an array of Damsires 1~3 that have G1 flat winners among their offspring (albeit 2 of them at 8f, so not quite the same calibre in a GN stat context)
- What he does have (that BdF didn't) is experience of the GN fences: he had a quietly very impressive spin over the GN fences in last April's Topham on GS but in a quick time. After ballooning the first, he travelled and jumped the remaining fences really well to make ground from the rear to be in touch in 6th (8L), going nicely until the leaders sped away crossing the Melling Road - he stayed on in 10th but lacked the gears needed to be in the mix over 21f. For a horse that sometimes doesn't take an interest, he was encouragingly up for the spruce and the typical pattern of those that take to the GN fences is that they love going over them again.
Conclusion: There's a reason the market rates him 100/1, because it takes a leap of faith to imagine a 10 yo that's had better days in the mix at the business end - but the same was absolutely true of Balk Des Flos and there are interesting, uncommon aspects to his profile to suggest it could be deja vu all over again.
Sufficient for me to add him to my e/w team.
Finally, DEATH DUTY (100/1 NRNB)
UR'd last GN at the 8th and bringing half a fence with him at some point is the big risk with him. He was on my team then and, despite now being a 12yo, the profile's not materially different. However, I'll save a conclusion and write up on him until it's clearer whether Fairyhouse or Aintree will be his destination. His jumping may also benefit from slower ground.
So these are the Model's Final Ratings and status of my e/w bets:
WINNING CALIBRE / STRONG PLACE POTENTIAL:
- DELTA WORK (backed at 20/1 NRNB)
- MR INCREDIBLE (16/1)
- THE BIG BREAKAWAY (33/1)
- BACK ON THE LASH - ONLY ON GS (100/1 NRNB, will cash out if ground against)
- DUNBOYNE - ONLY ON SOFT (50/1, will cash out if ground against)
Next Best = MINOR PLACE POTENTIAL:And these are my deep-value picks from the edge of the Model's Radar Screen:
Despite having some 100/1 shots that may get the old juices flowing because they aren't necessarily the lost causes the market reckons them to be, whichever horses you decide to back, PLEASE don't bet more than you can afford to lose.
It's served me well since 2006 but this could be the year my model finally does career off the road and end up a burning wreck in a ditch.