Thanks @PeanutsMolloy, having followed last years thread and made a little profit from your model. I am delighted that you once again are sharing it with us. I do love the way you show your workings and find it all quite fascinating. I am very grateful to you for this and am already looking forward to the race.
The 11 test Initial Screen, explained earlier, is Part 1 of the model's process. Part 2 is to look for Pluses that separate the men from the boys in a GN.
There are 3 relatively rare, minor Pluses that are nonetheless good pointers for frame-makers:
- Spring form over fences (mid-Mar to mid-May) is materially superior - Best RPR for recent 26f+ chase is >7lbs higher than GNOR - Progressive form over GN fences: ran well as a 7yo in GN or a GN debutant with Becher form
13.5% of all runners had 1+ of these minor Pluses. They contributed 51% of the first 5 home.
But the strongest Pluses are derived from the Pedigree and this is where most of the Eureka moments arose in tweaking the model last year after Noble Yeats and Any Second Now exposed a sizeable hole.
There are now 5 categories of Pedigree Plus (I'll try to precis as they're a tad anoraky):
1. Sire & Damsire combo: particularly relevant for winners is if both Sire and Damsire won a G1 over 8f+ on the flat and also Wild Risk is present via the Dam or Sire's dam (only 11% of all runners had this Plus but they contributed 6 of the last 9 GN winners, including Noble Yeats - an astonishing x6 outperformance) 2.Quality of Damsires 1~3: Damsire and one or both of DS2 and DS3 have progeny that won a G1 at 10f+ on the flat or made the frame in a GN (19% of runners fit the bill, producing 62.5% of the 16 GN winners and <5L near-missers from 2013) 3. Wild Risk & Bold Ruler combo on Damside of pedigree (50% of winners & near-missers from 10% of runners) 4. Related to a GN winner (or 2~4th with 11.00+) (32% of 25 winners & <10L from 10% of runners) 5. Meaningfully line-bred (i.e. multiple presence in the pedigree via both son and daughter) to key genetic influences (Wild Risk or Elite Mares) or Timeform-rated 140+ flat Champions (75% of winners & near-missers and 51% of frame-makers from 20% of runners; notably including Noble Yeats, Any Second Now, Santini [linebred to Sea Bird] and Gilgamboa)
So, all together, 100% of the first 4 home in the last 9 GNs had at least 1 Pedigree Plus (48% of all runners that fit the bill).
But notably all 9 winners and 6 of the 7 near-missers (94% in all) had 2+ Pedigree Pluses (as did only 18% of runners). Tiger Roll, One For Arthur and Minella Times topped the list with 4, Auroras Encore, Rule The World and close 2nd Balthazar King had 3.
A small but noteworthy point - the single near-misser with only 1 Pedigree Plus (Cause Of Causes) also had a minor Plus, having notched an RPR in his Festival XC win 8lbs higher than his GNOR.
Only 3 of those placed 5th in the last 9 GNs did not have a Pedigree Plus but all 3 were 8yo 2nd season chasers that had won or near-missed in a Class 1 chase at 26~29f. Interestingly, 2 of them (Rocky Creek and Shutthefrontdoor) that run again in a subsequent GN as seasoned chasers (thus without any Plus), both ran poorly. Without a Pedigree Plus, they only had 1 bite of the cherry.
So the model's final Plus of significance to frame-making is to be a 2nd Season Chaser with either form at 26f+ or a 75%+ win or near-miss rate in 24f+ chases. With only 7% of runners fitting the bill, 29% of those making 1st~5th did so.
In conclusion, we want to see 1+ Plus in our selections. Of the 27 remaining from the initial screen, we can eliminate these 10 that have none:
Fury Road
Quick Wave (distantly related to GN winners Grittar and Maori Venture but too remote)
Escaria Ten
Remastered
Diol Ker
Lord Lariat
Cloudy Glen
Gin On Lime
Gabbys Cross
Our Power
We're down to 17 and of these I'm eliminating 2 which have Pedigree Pluses but fail 1 Golden Stat (2+ fails in total) and have other material concerns:
Mr Coffey - a talented young chaser but the solitary, large blot on his CV is a very poor run in last year's Topham - he did not handle the fences and I can't fancy him to break Nicky Ferguson's GN duck
Ashtown Lad - impressive Becher Chase winner but hit a wall 4 out when every chance in last April's 4m Scot Nat - his trainer's doubted he'd get GN trip and may scratch him
So we’re down to the model's Long List of 15 (in card order):
BTW, if anyone is interested in pedigrees, this is a very useful site. You have to subscribe if you want to see more than 5 Generations and some of the more esoteric analysis but 5 Generations is free.
Actually I strongly fancy Pencilfulloflead to go really well today and have put a couple of bob on him, which would hopefully hedge a fall in his current 33/1 GN price should he do so. Will be glued to Fairyhouse during half-time today. Sadly, Farclas a NR.
Change of plan - cashed out most of the win bet today and made Pencilfulloflead my first GN e/w bet this year at 33/1 (5 places, 1/5). With other GN candidates short enough, I don't want to risk his price collapsing if he goes conspicuously well today and it will add to the misery if he near-misses and today's bet's a loser. Even if he doesn't, he's got at the very least a strong place profile on Soft and you just can't predict how the ground will come up at Aintree. If they feel they need to water extensively, any unexpected drop of late rain could turn it on the softer side. Will do a write up on him after today's race.
Currently 40-1 on Paddypower (anti post, 1/5, 5 places)
Actually I strongly fancy Pencilfulloflead to go really well today and have put a couple of bob on him, which would hopefully hedge a fall in his current 33/1 GN price should he do so. Will be glued to Fairyhouse during half-time today. Sadly, Farclas a NR.
Change of plan - cashed out most of the win bet today and made Pencilfulloflead my first GN e/w bet this year at 33/1 (5 places, 1/5). With other GN candidates short enough, I don't want to risk his price collapsing if he goes conspicuously well today and it will add to the misery if he near-misses and today's bet's a loser. Even if he doesn't, he's got at the very least a strong place profile on Soft and you just can't predict how the ground will come up at Aintree. If they feel they need to water extensively, any unexpected drop of late rain could turn it on the softer side. Will do a write up on him after today's race.
Currently 40-1 on Paddypower (anti post, 1/5, 5 places)
I've just realised 6 of the 15 on my Long List are Elliott's and 4 belong to the Git. What a pisser. Oh well, gotta stay objective.
More anon.
Sadly very difficult to avoid them. Spent my life trying to do so with other trainers too (invariably because their strike rate was poor and who would be on the cold list for long periods) and invariably that only ended up putting me off the winner! I have a blind spot in particular for home trainers such as the likes of Mickey Hammond, John Jenkins and Simon Dow for example.
Equally, horses from the Henderson and Nicholls stables are always put in shorter and over bet more than their form warrants. Most of my successes have been based on unexposed up and coming trainers (such as Harry Derham currently but, because of his connections, that won't last for long) before they come to the attention of anyone else and trainers with lesser strings who can still train - currently Sandy Thompson, Laura Morgan and Sam England to name but three for example.
Peanuts... How does Cheltenham affect your model? Do you see it as a negative if a horse is entered there. I prefer to back a horse that has been aimed specifically at Aintree.
Peanuts... How does Cheltenham affect your model? Do you see it as a negative if a horse is entered there. I prefer to back a horse that has been aimed specifically at Aintree.
Good question @RobinKeepsBobbin Sorry to be slow replying - bit of a long day.
It’s a tricky one. Instinctively I tend to agree with you, especially when it’s the customary 3 week gap. This year, fortunately, it’s 4 of course. Would Hedgehunter have won back to back GNs if he hadn’t gone so close to winning the Gold Cup in 2006? Who knows but Ruby reported he hadn’t travelled as well in the GN as he had in 2005.
Did his XC win cost Cause Of Causes the 2017 GN? Maybe. But there are plenty of examples of horses running, even winning and/or having hard races at Cheltenham and still doing the business in a GN. Dont Push It, Many Clouds and Noble Yeats all had relatively quiet spins at the Festival before GN wins but Silver Birch and Pineau De Re had hard fought finishes prior to theirs and Tiger of course won both times pre Aintree - different gravy though. The truth is it depends a lot on the horse and the seriousness with which it’s ridden. You want a horse to have decent race workout (that’s simply not replicable on the gallops) but preferably avoid a hard fought finish. I’d usually mainly be worried for the serious Gold Cup contenders and runners that are involved at the finish of the 30f Nov chase, which always takes a bit if recovering from. But, as I say, this year the 4 week gap is a big help.
As for the model specifically, it doesn't treat a run at the Festival as a negative. I did once look at having a screen for horses that had a hard race <28 days but it’s blooming difficult creating an objective definition of that. The model’s tests have to be objectively applied. Obviously I can and do overlay my subjective views on the list it generates, as I may have to do this time when deciding which runners to back but I screwed up declining to back Bless The Wings e/w in 2018 because he’d run in the Irish GN 12 days prior. The model rated him Place Potential and he came 3rd at 40/1. I usually screw up when deciding to ignore the model!
Which raises another point. Stats-wise every race is a new piece of data for the model’s assessment but, depending on the horse's existing CV, a run at the Festival may or may not make a difference to its rating. The tweaks I've introduced to it over the last few years were designed to try to give more certainty prior to weights and the Festival and it worked really well last 2 years - less so this. As I'll explain this week when I give a summary of each of the 15 on my Long List, some like The Big Breakaway and Mr Incredible just need to have a safe spin from the model's point of view - their ratings are already set as Winning Calibre, providing they have a final prep to blow away the cobwebs.
But there are several on the Long List running in the XC and the Gold Cup that could materially elevate their stat-ratings with a strong run.
Ditto Farclas and/or Death Duty if running well in the Leinster Nat on 12 March.
And then there's betting strategy. Of course, if any win their price is going to crash so it's a tricky issue both whether and when to put the money down. Usually I find the Law of Sod applies and if I back a definite GN pick prior to Cheltenham it'll run a stinker and drift. And vice versa, of course. The model picked out Tiger in 2018 but I waited, not expecting to win the XC. When he did, he was too short I thought to back for the GN. UGH!!!!! 2018 really was a disaster for me thinking I knew better than my model. This year, as prices are already shortish for those on my radar screen, I've decided to back The Big Breakaway prior to the Ultima and, probably, will do so for at least 1 other.
Sorry for the length of this. Hope that sort of answers your question - let me know if not.
Time to take a closer look at the 15 on the
model's Long List.
Before doing so, a quick summary of the ideal standard we're looking for
profile-wise, assuming a typical range of stat-ratings among the runners (as
noted, we may or may not have this this year):
1. Up to 2 fails (max) of the 11 Initial
Tests (0 of the “Golden” Tests) AND
2. At least 1 Plus (for Winning Calibre at least 2, incl at least 1
Pedigree Plus)
Allowing also for preferred
going, back-testing these profiles 2013~22:
67 runners (18.8%, on average 7~8 per race) met
at least the Place Potential criteria. They contributed:
1st~5th: all 45
6th: 4
F/UR/BD: 9
Unplaced/PU: 9 In other words, 67% (2 in 3) of the 67 with a frame-making stat-profile did so.
48 runners (13.5%, on average c. 5 per race) met
the Winning Calibre criteria. They contributed:
Winners: 9
2nd: 8
3rd: 8
4th: 9
5th: 4
F/UR/BD: 5
Unplaced/PU: 5
In other words, 79% (4 in 5) of the 48 with a Winning Calibre stat-profile
made the frame, c. 1 in 5 of them winning.
BUTplease note these are back-tested results of the tweaked
model - NOT actual results of the prevailing models each year (though the
actual models have helped me make a profit in 14 of the last 16 GNs - one of
the losing years literally by a nostril hair in 2012) The model is NOT a crystal ball but always
work-in-progress because, as sure as eggs is eggs, it will continue to get it
wrong to a greater or lesser extent. So please don't bet more than you can afford to lose.
Wealth-warning delivered, let's start taking a
closer look at the 15 on the 2023 model's Long List, starting with the few
already with a Winning Calibre rating:
THE BIG BREAKAWAY (8yo, 10-10, 33/1) #32
in weights, guaranteed a run
Stat-profile: Winning Calibre - 1 fail (0 Golden), 2 Pluses (1 Pedigree)
Change potential: no but must have a prep
Ground pref: relatively indifferent (softer may
be best chance)
Parallels: Teaforthree / Rathvinden [pedigree]
Expensive
purchase (EUR360k) after winning his debut PtP, now a 3rd season chaser
(10 chases).
Stamina-strong: Near-missed
in both runs this season at 25.5f+, most notably when lumping 11.13 in
December’s 30.5f Welsh GN on Soft, keeping on well, passing The Big Dog in
the run in and just held by the winner, to which he was conceding 26lbs.
That notched a career best RPR157 [+5] over his furthest trip attempted.
Form
of Welsh GN looks strong – well beaten Quick Wave and The Galloping Bear
on next run respectively winning the GNT off OR+4 and near-missing in the
Eider off the same mark, and The Big Dog running a huge race in a 3m Gr1,
leading when F 2 out
Mark
& Weight-nicely treated: GNOR 151, just +3 on that Chepstow run,
giving a very winnable-with 10-10
Only
other 8~9 yo since 2013 to near-miss in a Welsh GN with >11.00 and run
in the same season GN was Teaforthree (10L 3rd in 2013 GN with 11.03, also
off GNOR 151 but +7 on his Chepstow close 2nd)
On
his Welsh GN run and via collateral form this season, TBB has c. 13lbs
pull at Aintree on both The Big Dog and Lifetime Ambition and, to a lesser
extent, on several other Irish contenders
Topspeed
reckons him to be 3lbs+ well-in with the field (see earlier post)
Ground-seems
versatile: Needs
a test of stamina but handles a sound surface, near-missing in a Grade 1
novice chase over 3m around speedy Kempton on quickish GS
Pedigree
Plus: Closely related to Rathvinden, 5L 3rd in the 2019 GN (shares maternal
grandmother)
Their
maternal great-grandfather (Damsire 2), Strong Gale, has appeared
as 1st or 2nd Damsire of 5 other GN frame-makers
Cappa Bleu (twice), Teaforthree, Shutthefrontdoor and The Last Samuri,
while 3rd Damsire, Tarqogan, was Damsire to GN winner
Rhyme n Reason and near-misser Romany King.
One
stat fail is absence of Wild Risk on his damside but WR is present on his
Sire's damside (same as Noble Yeats)
Other: Wind
surgery Nov 21, since when his form reads 3P22 (all 3 places <2L behind
the winners and the P his only run with a tongue-tie)
Hurdles
best RPR146, a final safe spin in the Ultima 32 days prior, to make 3 runs
in the season are all perfect stats-wise
Same
stable and jockey (Tizzard & Brendan Powell) as Fiddlerontheroof (5th last
GN)
Conclusion: My money is now down e/w for
TBB at 33s as he’s my #1 e/w pick. His run in the Ultima won’t alter his
stat-rating but a strong run would obviously see his odds slashed.
Parallels: Noble Yeats / One For
Arthur / Gilgamboa [pedigree]
2nd season chaser Plus, 6 chases to date (Noble Yeats won and Rocky Creek, Shutthefrontdoor
and Farclas placed 5th with <8 chases on their CVs)
Stamina-strong: most impressive run to date, 3L 2nd in January’s 29f Warwick
Classic (won by One For Arthur prior to his GN win as a 2nd season
chaser), staying on very strongly with 11-05 on testing ground. The form of
that race looks reasonable enough (3rd losing but 4th
winning next run off same mark)
Mark & Weight-could prove to be
thrown in: GNOR 145, +3 on Warwick, high enough to be confident of a run but translating
to a featherweight 10-04
Ground-probably versatile: Showed a turn of foot when finishing like a train to win his 18-runner debut
chase over 19f on Y, in which he’d been badly disadvantaged by mayhem. Close 2nd
on Gd/Y in his sole PtP and 2nd (albeit 31L) to Ahoy Senor on quickish
GS over 3m and Newbury’s stiff jumps (curiously, Noble Yeats had also finished
2nd to Ahoy Senor over 3m prior to his GN win).
Temperament emerged after that when he Refused to Race and on next outing downed
tools after 5 fences (literally stopping when in midfield). Then sold (to Noble
Yeats’ former owner) and moved yards from de Bromhead to Willie Mullins and
made a “Patrick Mullins’ Project”, with a customised training regime.
BD early in debut for new connections in December’s Paddy Power Hdcp (Noble
Yeats was 9th in the PP Hdcp prior to the GN) before his fine run at
Warwick. No apparent issue in either run.
Entered in Kim Muir (5/1) (and Midlands National - unlikely), a Festival handicap will be a stiff test of his
temperament, possibly also his ability on a decent surface (though rain is
forecast)
1 Pedigree Plus: Sire and Damsire both
G1 winners on the flat (at 20f and 12f respectively) – like
Noble Yeats and 5 other GN winners since 2013 (a very strong stat).
Distantly related to Bonanza Boy (x2 Welsh GN, one with 11.11, and GN5th with 11.07), his pedigree is similar to Gilgamboa’s (4th GN 2016). Both sired
by Westerner (also sired 34f Midlands Nat winner Truckers Lodge) and Be
My Native (Damsire of Gilgamboa and GN2nd Black Apalachi) is Mr
Incredible’s 2nd Damsire (like Any Second Now). His 3rd Damsire, Boreen, sired the dams of many stout stayers,
including 3 winners/near-missers of 4m+ chases, most notably Royal Emperor
(close 3rd in Scot Nat with 11.04)
Only stat fail is absence of Wild Risk on his damside but has WR on his
Sire’s damside (yes, you got it, just like Noble Yeats)
Hurdles best RPR139, with a prep 32 days prior to make 3 runs in the
season, again, perfect stats-wise.
Conclusion: Mr Incredible would be a “must have” for my team but for those 2 shows
of temperament. With signs that his new yard may have found the key to him, I’m
going to take a chance and add him prior to the Kim Muir – if he wins it, as he
may well do, I expect him to go off favourite at Aintree. If I don’t back him
now, I risk doing precisely what I did with Tiger in 2018.
Stamina-unexposed: 1st season chaser with only 6 chases to date (like Noble
Yeats et al), his record prior to 2023 had been unremarkable but his strong
finishing 2nd (on the nod) in January’s 25f Thyestes, the furthest
trip he’s attempted indicated that stamina is his forte and he could be
highly progressive over still further.
Mark & Weight-fine: Unexposed >25f, the fact that his GNOR 141 is +8 on that Thyestes near-miss
is academic, given he’ll carry the minimum 10-00 (in the handicap)
Elliott’s comment on Weights’ Day: "Dunboyne put up a great run in the Thyestes and he was only beaten
a head. Hopefully he might sneak in. I think the National is a race that is
made for him. He could be one that could creep into the places if he is
fortunate enough to get in the race.”
GN-strong Pedigree:
Sire (Yeats - same as Noble Yeats) and strong
array of Damsires:
o Damsire (Definite Article) won G1 on the flat, Damsire
of a G1 winner at 15f in Japan and top-class 3 miler Champ
o DS 2 (Presenting) was DS of Rathvinden (cl 3rd
GN 2019) and sired Ballabriggs (GN 2011) & Pleasant Company (cl 2nd
GN 2018)
o DS 3 (Pitpan) was DS of Slim Pickings (cl 3rd
GN 2007)
With the Wild Risk/Bold Ruler combo and interesting linebreeding, his 4
Pedigree Pluses are matched or bettered only by One For Arthur, Tiger Roll, Minella
Times & Balko Des Flos among all GN runners since 2013
Must have Soft
Ground: failed to make the frame in all 8 runs (PtP and
Under Rules) on anything better than Soft, 1 of them includes a RR but this can
easily be forgiven as it was a shambolic start into low sun. By contrast, he’s won or placed in 7 of his 9 Under Rules on Soft or worse
Hurdles best RPR 140, a safe prep would confirm his stat-rating (entered
in Ultima and 26f Kim Muir) and make 6 runs in the season, last 30~32 days
prior (seems a busy campaign but Auroras Encore, Pineau De Re, Rule the World and Noble Yeats all
had 6+ prior runs, last 23~36)
However, jumping is a concern: though he’s yet to F/UR in any of 18 runs over obstacles (only 1PU), all
3 career wins have come at RH tracks and his tendency to jump right when under
pressure could cost dearly at Aintree (indeed, it probably did so even in the Thyestes, going more right at the last than the winner).
Conclusion: With his apparent need for Soft, I’ll happily make Dunboyne a
last-minute decision – that jumping trait is a worry but going LH in a big
Festival handicap should tell us a lot more.
PENCILFULLOFLEAD (9yo, 10-12, 40/1) #23, guaranteed a
run Stat-profile: Place Potential - 2 fails (0 Golden), 1 Pedigree
Plus
Change potential: no
Ground pref: probably needs Soft ground
No entries so we can assume that his 5th 19L in the Bobbyjo was his
final run before the GN.
Stamina-unexposed: 3rd season chaser but with only 8 chases to his name, none yet at 26f+.
Placed in 2 of 3 runs at 25f+, finishing strongly both times, suggests
he's potentially highly progressive over longer.
This is what Elliott said on GN weights' day, shortly before the
Bobbyjo: “a good horse and has a lovely weight on his back. He ran very
well in the Thyestes. He is good now, but we just had a few issues with him
early on…. He is on the right side of the 11 stone mark and exactly in the sort
of place where we want to be in the race. He should enjoy a test like this.”
Has a touch of class. Won his first 2 chases as a novice, running well
against and beating some top-class opponents, twice notching RPR159. The RP
rated him "inthe top echelon of staying novice
chasers" before those "few issues" surfaced
Strong-finishing 3rd in January's Thyestes over 25f on Sft-Heavy was
only his 3rd run in 2 years, his first in a handicap off OR150
Mark & Weight-fine: Nudged up in mark for the GN (153) like most of the Irish, that
translates to a workable 10.12
Pedigree Plus: Sire (Shantou) and Damsire (Fragrant Mix) are both G1 winners at 12f+. Shantou’s
progeny is getting a poor reputation over 4m. He’s had 11 GN runners to date
(best 8th, though 5 of them tipped up and only 1 had any chance of making the frame, according to my
model - Death Duty, early UR). They’re also winless in 28 chases at 31.5f+ (5 were
placed). But 2 of those places were 7L 3rd to Minella Rocco &
Native River at levels in one of the hottest renewals of the 4m Festival Nov
chase and a close 2nd in February’s 33.5f Eider. Not a negative
for my model.
Hurdles best RPR139, 3 runs in the season, the last 49 days prior is fine
Ground-probably needs Soft: Elliott had previously said of him “the softer the better”but
subsequently he’d travelled OK on GS. Hoping he'd prove his ability on a sound surface, his 5th in the Bobbyjo on Y was
disappointing. A tad reassuringly, the Thyestes winner Carefully Selected also
ran poorly (arguably worse) suggesting that, as last year, that race takes some
recovery. At least Pencilfulloflead kept on gamely to the line, though a lack of
gear was evident in a false-paced race. The GN won't be that of course but his jumping also wasn’t fluent and that’s been evident before,
particularly on a sound surface. It all points to Soft ground suiting him best.
A further word of caution about all of Elliott's Aintree legion,
certainly Dunboyne and Pencilfulloflead. It wouldn't surprise if most or all
also get an entry for the Irish GN (5 days prior) and there is a risk that soft
ground preferences may dictate their destination.
Conclusion: I backed him at 33s prior to the Bobbyjo, expecting a stronger run. My view remains he's certainly one to have if it comes up Soft (and it may do) but if I hadn't put money down I'd be waiting till much nearer the day - no obvious reason for his price to drop in the meantime.
So these are the only 4 from the Long List of 15 with stat-ratings that (assuming
safe preps) already make them Winning Calibre (on any ground THE BIG BREAKAWAY and MR INCREDIBLE and, on Soft, DUNBOYNE) or Place Potential (on Soft, PENCILFULLOFLEAD).
Of the other 11, I’m going to eliminate LE MILOS (3 fails (0) and
1 Ped Plus), who has the potential to contend for a fair way but, at best and at a stretch, is
minor place potential (his disappointing defeat in his final prep at Kelso on Saturday only confirming this
impression) - certainly not sexy enough for 25/1.
I’m also going to “park” for the moment NOBLE YEATS, who has
clearly progressed this season and whose stat-rating of 3 Fails (0) & 3
Pluses gives him every chance of being in the vicinity going over the last. But,
again, 11/1 is just too short, given at least 11-11 on his back. Even if he
wins the Gold Cup, his GN 2023 stat-profile won’t change.
That leaves 9 to run through, who can elevate their GN stat-ratings materially
at Cheltenham or in this Sunday’s Leinster National.
Aiming to summarise all of these by the end of the week.
One observation I'd like to make about a bigweight, that may apply particularly for the 2023 GN.
With Noble
Yeats fav and 2 with topweight at 16~20/1, it’s easy to overlook the stats
that weigh very heavily against GN runners with >11.06, of which there may be as many as 7 this year.
Two points re the 2023 GN:
1. We have
the extra 2lbs for the topweight (now 11-12), not seen since 2008 (pre-course
and fence changes). Bottom weight remains at 10-00 and we’ll likely see runners
with 10-00 this year. Sothe 2023 GN will see the widest absolute weight-range
(26lbs) of any GN since 2004 (4lbs higher than the average weight range in that time).
2. In another way, notwithstanding the course changes, we’ve returned to that era because, also, compression of the weights is de facto finished. GNORs were once the prevailing ORs of the runners but from 2000 the BHA handicapper (then Phil Smith) was given
permission to adjust the GNORs at his discretion. He would occasionally “up” the OR of
low-rated course specialists to make sure they made the cut but he’d also “compress”
the GN handicap by allotting as many as 7 of the highest-rated entries (without course
form) in a single race a GNOR up to 7lbs below their prevailing OR.This was, of course, to try to
encourage winners and thus more entries from “higher quality” horses.
So, when
Many Clouds won with 11-09 in 2015, his GNOR160 had been compressed by 5lbs. He
beat Saint Are by 2L but (regardless of the rights or wrongs), without that
5lb gift, IMO not only would he not have won but, with virtually every other runner
carrying 2~4lbs less (as he’d have run as joint top weight off 165), he may even have struggled to be placed.
In any
event, though some have occasionally made the frame, the fact is until Any
Second Now (clearly a lover of the course) near-missed with 11.08 last year, Many
Clouds was the ONLY runner with >11.06 to win or near-miss (<5L) in 37 GN
renewals since Red Rum’s 3rd win in 1977.
With Smith
retiring in 2018, while handicapper-discretion remains for the GN weights (much
to Michael O’Leary’s and now Ted Walsh’s more understandable annoyance), “compression”
is now minimal.
Only 1
runner this year has any weight concession (joint topweight Conflated by 1lb).
In fact, like all the other Irish entries, Galvin (11-11) has been given an
extra 1lb on his current Irish mark.
Those of
a certain vintage will recall the pre-Compression years to 2000 and the annual mantra
that echoed until 2009 when Mon Mome kicked off a run of 4 successive winners
with 11.00~11.06: “you can put a line through anything with 11 stone or more” (more
correctly it was >11.06).
No doubt I’m guaranteeing a topweight victory in 2023 by saying this, and maybe the post-2012 changes over time will be proven to have made life easier for runners with big weights (I’m doubtful), but a
comparable mantra may be due for a comeback.
Ash Tree Meadow Burrows Saint Frontal Assault Sporting John
Also with a re-ordering of the groups on the same GNOR, updated by current OR, Mr Incredible is now #44 (top of the 5 with GNOR145) - 99% sure to get a run.
Sure enough, lots of double entries for both Aintree and Irish GN (5 days earlier) incl Mr Incredible, Pencilfulloflead & Dunboyne
Conflated Galvin Fury Road Royale Pagailles Franco De Port Carefully Selected Delta Work Gaillard Du Mesnil Lifetime Ambition Longhouse Poet Coko Beach Pencilfulloflead Darasso Diol Ker Farclas Ain't That A Shame Lord Lariat Velvet Elvis A Wave Of The Sea Mr Incredible Gabbys Cross Ashtown lad Recite A Prayer Death Duty Dunboyne Punitive Defi Bleu Gevrey Milan Native Capt Kangaroo Fakiera Darrens Hope
Another 1 of the Long List eliminated. FARCLAS not confirmed for Sunday's Leinster National and, without Festival entries, time's run out for him to achieve the necessary profile (and indeed prove his wellbeing) prior to the GN.
I've backed Galvin at silly odds (non runner, cash back) e/w for the C G C .. he's also in for the Irish and the proper Nationals .. about time he won or placed in a big one
I've backed Galvin at silly odds (non runner, cash back) e/w for the C G C .. he's also in for the Irish and the proper Nationals .. about time he won or placed in a big one
He's second fav for the x country on the Wednesday and by all accounts will run in that. Would like him myself for the GN if he shows up well. Apparently been running previously with a back issue which is now sorted. Class horse who stays well. Will leave it to the master @PeanutsMolloy to assess him fully
I've backed Galvin at silly odds (non runner, cash back) e/w for the C G C .. he's also in for the Irish and the proper Nationals .. about time he won or placed in a big one
He's second fav for the x country on the Wednesday and by all accounts will run in that. Would like him myself for the GN if he shows up well. Apparently been running previously with a back issue which is now sorted. Class horse who stays well.
Cheers for the kind compliment but you’ve summed him up perfectly. Serious candidate. Run down on him and all the others on my radar screen I haven’t yet gassed on about by the end of the week.
I’m going
to start running through those we haven’t yet covered on the Long List. I’ll
dribble them out over the next few days to avoid an avalanche of info.
As noted
before, this is a funny old year. The weight structure seems to make it a throw-back
to the early- or even pre-Compression era and it’s 16 years since there were as few early “definites”
for my team.
Quantity
and proven staying quality of the entries is poor, perhaps because of which I can’t recall there
being so many running at the Festival that still can (and need to) elevate their
stat-profiles to Winning or Place potential. Usually there’s 4 or (at tops) 5 –
next week there’s 8. So, without a Festival crystal ball, value assessments are
particularly relevant.
Let’s
start with one whose profile is set and has some appeal but at the price is
unlikely to make my team:
GAILLARD DU MESNIL (7yo, 11-00, 16/1) #19 in the Weights
Stat-profile: Minor Place Potential
Change potential: no
Likely Prep: 30f Nov Chase
Ground pref: indifferent
Parallel:
Burrows Saint
2nd season chaser Plus, still a
novice
Gr 1
winner over hurdles and fences but best chase form when 5L 3rd to L’Homme
Presse (Ahoy Senor 2nd) at levels in the Gr1 Brown Advisory at last
year’s Festival, followed a month later by an eye-catching, keeping-on 3rd
(7L) under 11-08 in the Irish GN – his only handicap chase to date (OR154 - relatively well-treated with GNOR155)
Highly consistent, 1st
or 2nd in all 5 hurdles and making the frame 7 of 8 chases, incl all
3 at 24f+ (1 win).
Pedigree similar to stablemate,
Irish GN winner & GN 4th Burrows Saint – both sired by
Saint Des Saints, whose progeny don’t have great record as yet at 4m+, Burrows
Saint’s 4th (but emptying badly by the last) being the only frame-maker in 11
attempts, 6 in the GN (5 different sons, only 1 other completing)
Can easily
see him matching Burrows with a minor place but a win looks improbable, so 16/1
isn’t tempting.
Not part
of the model’s reckoning but maybe worth noting. His most likely engagement
next week is as odds-on fav in the 30f Nov chase. The record
of that typically-gruelling race (with "enthusiastic" Amateur jocks) in terms of immediate follow-ups in Nationals, has been poor down
the years, both as a 4m contest and thus far over 30f (last 3 renewals).
In the
last 9 years, 12 that finished in the first 4 have run in a follow-up National within 6 weeks (2 at Aintree). Only 4 have completed (best 6th) and even Tiger PU’d
34 days later at Fairyhouse. 2 have done so in the last 3 years (Run Wild Fred,
F at 8th in GN, and Escaria Ten, PU in Irish).
Nothing’s
impossible but it’s a race that tends to take its toll, at least in the short
term.
Now let’s
talk about the Heavyweights. A few stats to chew on:
As noted
earlier, while they have made the frame, only 1 horse has carried >11.06 to
win a GN since Red Rum in 1977.
That was
Many Clouds in 2015 with 11-09, whose winning margin was 2L but whose GNOR was set 5lb lower
than his OR prevailing at weights day - reflecting a handicapping policy that is
no more.
That
said, Any Second Now (11-08) was beaten last year by only 2L, reflecting an
evident capability for previous GN winners and near-missers to make the frame
again despite that burden (Montys Pass, Hedgehunter and Don’t Push It also doing
so). But, Many Clouds aside, only Any Second Now and Hedgehunter have borne
11-07+ and finished within 10L of the winner since The Thinker (7L 3rd)
in 1989.
This is
relevant to 3 on the Long List: Conflated (11-12), Noble Yeats and Galvin (both
11-11).
Let’s add
another stat (probably not applicable to Galvin):
Only 1 horse
has ever completed a Gold Cup & GN same-season double, the legendary Golden
Miller in 1934, though Garrison Savannah came agonisingly within 5L of matching
him, headed after The Elbow, in 1991 (carrying 11-01 at Aintree).
But, though
others have near-missed, Many Clouds (again) is the only horse just to even have
a final spin in the Gold Cup (24L 6th) before winning a GN since
Rough Quest did so in 1996; close 2nd in the GC and thrown in at
Aintree with only 10-07 and a youthful Fitzy on his back.
There are
more examples since 2000 of GC runners placing in the ensuing GN (Anibale Fly
twice, My Will and Hedgehunter, famously 2nd in both 22 days apart, Royal
Auclair and Whats Up Boys) but only Hedgehunter did so with as much as 11-12 on
his back at Aintree.
Put the 2
stats together and, especially if he were involved in a hard finish at Cheltenham,
it’s a huge ask for CONFLATED (9yo, 11-12, 20/1 NRNB), Elliott’s GC hope, to win at Aintree and
even though, like Many Clouds, he’d benefit from a 29-day recovery-time this year, he’s by no means committed to run in the GN (Elliott saying at weights’
unveiling: “it might be a year too
early”)
If he
does line up:
- He has a GN-strong double Pedigree Plus:
o Sire
Yeats (same as Noble Yeats) – 3 wins and 2 places for offspring at 31.5f+ from
19 attempts
o Damsire
Presenting and DS2 Strong Gale a powerful combo with many GN connections and identical
to Rathvinden and DS3 Choral Society was Miinnehoma’s damsire.
- His
stat-profile is a tad short of the necessary for any runner carrying even 11.03+, thus his rating is 3 fails [1 Golden]
- A 3rd
season chaser (twice Gr 1 winner at 3m and best RPR172) the Catch 22 is that he
can only elevate his GN profile to Winning Calibre by being there or
thereabouts in the 26.5f Blue-Riband. Who knows whether that would make it more
or less likely he heads for the GN?
He's very much got the Pedigree of a GN winner (even very distantly related to Grittar and Maori Venture) but, at 20/1
for the only NRNB quote for this April, the combination of weight and Gold Cup are too much of a deterrence IMO.
May I request Delta Work's profile in the spotlight next/soon? Have jumped the gun and put a little e/w on him based upon a soft spot following last year's Cheltenham performance and placing in the GN with a lovely antepost price (thanks to this thread!).
May I request Delta Work's profile in the spotlight next/soon? Have jumped the gun and put a little e/w on him based upon a soft spot following last year's Cheltenham performance and placing in the GN with a lovely antepost price (thanks to this thread!).
If the GC & GN is a tough combo, with a few days extra recovery and perhaps taking a less extreme toll, the Festival
Cross Country is a road to GN victory (or near-victory) more frequently travelled, though successfully so to date only by horses of Gordon Elliott.
It was Silver Birch's GN win in 2007 (with
10-06), after a close 2nd in the XC (then a handicap) 32 days earlier, that put
Elliott on the map training-wise.
Cause Of Causes nearly did the double 24 days
apart (2nd 4.5L at Aintree with 10-13) in 2016 and of course Tiger did the
double-double in 2018 (10-13) & 19 (11-05), 31 and 24 days being the
respective gaps. He grudgingly handed over the XC baton to Delta Work last year (3rd 22L at Aintree
with 11-09, 24 days later).
All of them, Elliott-trained. This year GALVIN (9yo, 11-11,
33/1) seems to be following this same
path, though with the benefit of 31 days recovery.
Current Stat-profile: No cigar - 3 fails (1
Golden), 1 Pedigree Plus
Change potential: If winning XC and with an RPR matching Tiger's 171 in 2019,Strong Place Potential
Ground pref: better ground probably suits best
Seasoned
chaser with 17 to his name (60% win or near-miss at 24f+) and Gr 1 winner
Stamina
is his forte – won the 2021 30f Nov Chase at the Festival and just lacked
a gear to be closer than 17L 4th in the 2022 Gold Cup.
This
season has turned a little disappointing – having matched career-high RPR168,
he was a beaten fav and then well adrift in Grade 1 company. Elliott reported
at the weights’ unveiling that he’d “just
had a little procedure done on his back and he is back working well”.
Pedigree
Plus
is interesting, mainly in the shape of his Sire:
Gold
Well
(unraced brother to Montjeu – Sire of Tiger Roll’s Sire, Authorized). He’s
had 4 different, unsuccessful GN runners to date (though 3 Fell – incl. General
Principle, unluckily when going nicely) but his offspring’s record generally
over 31.5f+ is impressive: 5 wins and 6 places from 30 attempts (37%
frame-making beats the average by approx. x2)
Damsire
Moonax was a G1 winner at 15.5f on the flat and DS2 Pharadante was Damsire
of Double Seven (6L 3rd GN 2014)
As
we know, 11-11 is a big barrier to GN success but, if everything else
stacks up, it’s not impossible to go very close even so and a win or
near-miss in the XC would elevate his GN profile enough to do so.
If he’s fit and the ground is decent, I expect him to turn XC fav Delta Work over and, on that
basis, 33/1 for the GN puts him very much on my short-list. A smidgeon of value there methinks, but only if one's willing to take the gamble on his fitness and back him ahead of Cheltenham.
That’s the
thorny question to which I’ll attempt to figure out my answer over the weekend and a large
scotch or three.
Comments
The 11 test Initial Screen, explained earlier, is Part 1 of the model's process. Part 2 is to look for Pluses that separate the men from the boys in a GN.
There are 3 relatively rare, minor Pluses that are nonetheless good pointers for frame-makers:
- Spring form over fences (mid-Mar to mid-May) is materially superior
- Best RPR for recent 26f+ chase is >7lbs higher than GNOR
- Progressive form over GN fences: ran well as a 7yo in GN or a GN debutant with Becher form
13.5% of all runners had 1+ of these minor Pluses. They contributed 51% of the first 5 home.
But the strongest Pluses are derived from the Pedigree and this is where most of the Eureka moments arose in tweaking the model last year after Noble Yeats and Any Second Now exposed a sizeable hole.
There are now 5 categories of Pedigree Plus (I'll try to precis as they're a tad anoraky):
1. Sire & Damsire combo: particularly relevant for winners is if both Sire and Damsire won a G1 over 8f+ on the flat and also Wild Risk is present via the Dam or Sire's dam (only 11% of all runners had this Plus but they contributed 6 of the last 9 GN winners, including Noble Yeats - an astonishing x6 outperformance)
2. Quality of Damsires 1~3: Damsire and one or both of DS2 and DS3 have progeny that won a G1 at 10f+ on the flat or made the frame in a GN (19% of runners fit the bill, producing 62.5% of the 16 GN winners and <5L near-missers from 2013)
3. Wild Risk & Bold Ruler combo on Damside of pedigree (50% of winners & near-missers from 10% of runners)
4. Related to a GN winner (or 2~4th with 11.00+) (32% of 25 winners & <10L from 10% of runners)
5. Meaningfully line-bred (i.e. multiple presence in the pedigree via both son and daughter) to key genetic influences (Wild Risk or Elite Mares) or Timeform-rated 140+ flat Champions (75% of winners & near-missers and 51% of frame-makers from 20% of runners; notably including Noble Yeats, Any Second Now, Santini [linebred to Sea Bird] and Gilgamboa)
So, all together, 100% of the first 4 home in the last 9 GNs had at least 1 Pedigree Plus (48% of all runners that fit the bill).
But notably all 9 winners and 6 of the 7 near-missers (94% in all) had 2+ Pedigree Pluses (as did only 18% of runners). Tiger Roll, One For Arthur and Minella Times topped the list with 4, Auroras Encore, Rule The World and close 2nd Balthazar King had 3.
A small but noteworthy point - the single near-misser with only 1 Pedigree Plus (Cause Of Causes) also had a minor Plus, having notched an RPR in his Festival XC win 8lbs higher than his GNOR.
Only 3 of those placed 5th in the last 9 GNs did not have a Pedigree Plus but all 3 were 8yo 2nd season chasers that had won or near-missed in a Class 1 chase at 26~29f. Interestingly, 2 of them (Rocky Creek and Shutthefrontdoor) that run again in a subsequent GN as seasoned chasers (thus without any Plus), both ran poorly. Without a Pedigree Plus, they only had 1 bite of the cherry.
So the model's final Plus of significance to frame-making is to be a 2nd Season Chaser with either form at 26f+ or a 75%+ win or near-miss rate in 24f+ chases. With only 7% of runners fitting the bill, 29% of those making 1st~5th did so.
In conclusion, we want to see 1+ Plus in our selections. Of the 27 remaining from the initial screen, we can eliminate these 10 that have none:
- Fury Road
- Quick Wave (distantly related to GN winners Grittar and Maori Venture but too remote)
- Escaria Ten
- Remastered
- Diol Ker
- Lord Lariat
- Cloudy Glen
- Gin On Lime
- Gabbys Cross
- Our Power
We're down to 17 and of these I'm eliminating 2 which have Pedigree Pluses but fail 1 Golden Stat (2+ fails in total) and have other material concerns:- Mr Coffey - a talented young chaser but the solitary, large blot on his CV is a very poor run in last year's Topham - he did not handle the fences and I can't fancy him to break Nicky Ferguson's GN duck
- Ashtown Lad - impressive Becher Chase winner but hit a wall 4 out when every chance in last April's 4m Scot Nat - his trainer's doubted he'd get GN trip and may scratch him
So we’re down to the model's Long List of 15 (in card order):- Conflated
- Galvin
- Noble Yeats
- Delta Work
- Franco De Port
- Gaillard Du Mesnil
- Pencilfulloflead
- Happygolucky
- Le Milos
- Farclas
- The Big Breakaway
- Mr Incredible
- Death Duty
- Dunboyne
- Back On the Lash
I'll run through these tomorrow.I need a drink
You have to subscribe if you want to see more than 5 Generations and some of the more esoteric analysis but 5 Generations is free.
Oh well, gotta stay objective.
More anon.
Equally, horses from the Henderson and Nicholls stables are always put in shorter and over bet more than their form warrants. Most of my successes have been based on unexposed up and coming trainers (such as Harry Derham currently but, because of his connections, that won't last for long) before they come to the attention of anyone else and trainers with lesser strings who can still train - currently Sandy Thompson, Laura Morgan and Sam England to name but three for example.
Sorry to be slow replying - bit of a long day.
It’s a tricky one.
Instinctively I tend to agree with you, especially when it’s the customary 3 week gap. This year, fortunately, it’s 4 of course.
Would Hedgehunter have won back to back GNs if he hadn’t gone so close to winning the Gold Cup in 2006? Who knows but Ruby reported he hadn’t travelled as well in the GN as he had in 2005.
But there are plenty of examples of horses running, even winning and/or having hard races at Cheltenham and still doing the business in a GN.
Dont Push It, Many Clouds and Noble Yeats all had relatively quiet spins at the Festival before GN wins but Silver Birch and Pineau De Re had hard fought finishes prior to theirs and Tiger of course won both times pre Aintree - different gravy though.
The truth is it depends a lot on the horse and the seriousness with which it’s ridden. You want a horse to have decent race workout (that’s simply not replicable on the gallops) but preferably avoid a hard fought finish.
I’d usually mainly be worried for the serious Gold Cup contenders and runners that are involved at the finish of the 30f Nov chase, which always takes a bit if recovering from.
But, as I say, this year the 4 week gap is a big help.
I did once look at having a screen for horses that had a hard race <28 days but it’s blooming difficult creating an objective definition of that.
The model’s tests have to be objectively applied.
Obviously I can and do overlay my subjective views on the list it generates, as I may have to do this time when deciding which runners to back but I screwed up declining to back Bless The Wings e/w in 2018 because he’d run in the Irish GN 12 days prior. The model rated him Place Potential and he came 3rd at 40/1. I usually screw up when deciding to ignore the model!
Which raises another point.
Stats-wise every race is a new piece of data for the model’s assessment but, depending on the horse's existing CV, a run at the Festival may or may not make a difference to its rating.
The tweaks I've introduced to it over the last few years were designed to try to give more certainty prior to weights and the Festival and it worked really well last 2 years - less so this.
As I'll explain this week when I give a summary of each of the 15 on my Long List, some like The Big Breakaway and Mr Incredible just need to have a safe spin from the model's point of view - their ratings are already set as Winning Calibre, providing they have a final prep to blow away the cobwebs.
And then there's betting strategy. Of course, if any win their price is going to crash so it's a tricky issue both whether and when to put the money down.
Usually I find the Law of Sod applies and if I back a definite GN pick prior to Cheltenham it'll run a stinker and drift. And vice versa, of course.
The model picked out Tiger in 2018 but I waited, not expecting to win the XC. When he did, he was too short I thought to back for the GN.
UGH!!!!! 2018 really was a disaster for me thinking I knew better than my model.
This year, as prices are already shortish for those on my radar screen, I've decided to back The Big Breakaway prior to the Ultima and, probably, will do so for at least 1 other.
Sorry for the length of this. Hope that sort of answers your question - let me know if not.
Time to take a closer look at the 15 on the model's Long List.
Before doing so, a quick summary of the ideal standard we're looking for profile-wise, assuming a typical range of stat-ratings among the runners (as noted, we may or may not have this this year):
1. Up to 2 fails (max) of the 11 Initial Tests (0 of the “Golden” Tests) AND
2. At least 1 Plus (for Winning Calibre at least 2, incl at least 1 Pedigree Plus)
Allowing also for preferred going, back-testing these profiles 2013~22:
67 runners (18.8%, on average 7~8 per race) met at least the Place Potential criteria. They contributed:
1st~5th: all 45
6th: 4
F/UR/BD: 9
Unplaced/PU: 9
In other words, 67% (2 in 3) of the 67 with a frame-making stat-profile did so.
48 runners (13.5%, on average c. 5 per race) met the Winning Calibre criteria. They contributed:
Winners: 9
2nd: 8
3rd: 8
4th: 9
5th: 4
F/UR/BD: 5
Unplaced/PU: 5
In other words, 79% (4 in 5) of the 48 with a Winning Calibre stat-profile made the frame, c. 1 in 5 of them winning.
BUT please note these are back-tested results of the tweaked model - NOT actual results of the prevailing models each year (though the actual models have helped me make a profit in 14 of the last 16 GNs - one of the losing years literally by a nostril hair in 2012)
The model is NOT a crystal ball but always work-in-progress because, as sure as eggs is eggs, it will continue to get it wrong to a greater or lesser extent.
So please don't bet more than you can afford to lose.
To be continued: ........
Wealth-warning delivered, let's start taking a closer look at the 15 on the 2023 model's Long List, starting with the few already with a Winning Calibre rating:
THE BIG BREAKAWAY (8yo, 10-10, 33/1) #32 in weights, guaranteed a run
Stat-profile: Winning Calibre - 1 fail (0 Golden), 2 Pluses (1 Pedigree)
Change potential: no but must have a prep
Ground pref: relatively indifferent (softer may be best chance)
Parallels: Teaforthree / Rathvinden [pedigree]
- Expensive
purchase (EUR360k) after winning his debut PtP, now a 3rd season chaser
(10 chases).
- Stamina-strong: Near-missed
in both runs this season at 25.5f+, most notably when lumping 11.13 in
December’s 30.5f Welsh GN on Soft, keeping on well, passing The Big Dog in
the run in and just held by the winner, to which he was conceding 26lbs.
That notched a career best RPR157 [+5] over his furthest trip attempted.
- Form
of Welsh GN looks strong – well beaten Quick Wave and The Galloping Bear
on next run respectively winning the GNT off OR+4 and near-missing in the
Eider off the same mark, and The Big Dog running a huge race in a 3m Gr1,
leading when F 2 out
- Mark
& Weight-nicely treated: GNOR 151, just +3 on that Chepstow run,
giving a very winnable-with 10-10
- Only
other 8~9 yo since 2013 to near-miss in a Welsh GN with >11.00 and run
in the same season GN was Teaforthree (10L 3rd in 2013 GN with 11.03, also
off GNOR 151 but +7 on his Chepstow close 2nd)
- On
his Welsh GN run and via collateral form this season, TBB has c. 13lbs
pull at Aintree on both The Big Dog and Lifetime Ambition and, to a lesser
extent, on several other Irish contenders
- Topspeed
reckons him to be 3lbs+ well-in with the field (see earlier post)
- Ground-seems
versatile: Needs
a test of stamina but handles a sound surface, near-missing in a Grade 1
novice chase over 3m around speedy Kempton on quickish GS
- Pedigree
Plus: Closely related to Rathvinden, 5L 3rd in the 2019 GN (shares maternal
grandmother)
- Their
maternal great-grandfather (Damsire 2), Strong Gale, has appeared
as 1st or 2nd Damsire of 5 other GN frame-makers
Cappa Bleu (twice), Teaforthree, Shutthefrontdoor and The Last Samuri,
while 3rd Damsire, Tarqogan, was Damsire to GN winner
Rhyme n Reason and near-misser Romany King.
- One
stat fail is absence of Wild Risk on his damside but WR is present on his
Sire's damside (same as Noble Yeats)
- Other: Wind
surgery Nov 21, since when his form reads 3P22 (all 3 places <2L behind
the winners and the P his only run with a tongue-tie)
- Hurdles
best RPR146, a final safe spin in the Ultima 32 days prior, to make 3 runs
in the season are all perfect stats-wise
- Same
stable and jockey (Tizzard & Brendan Powell) as Fiddlerontheroof (5th last
GN)
Conclusion: My money is now down e/w for TBB at 33s as he’s my #1 e/w pick. His run in the Ultima won’t alter his stat-rating but a strong run would obviously see his odds slashed.MR INCREDIBLE (7yo, 10-04, 16/1) #51, likely to make the cut
Stat-profile: Winning Calibre - 1 fail (0 Golden), 3 Pluses (1 Pedigree)
Change Potential: no but must have a prep
Ground pref: probably indifferent (softer possibly preferred)
Parallels: Noble Yeats / One For Arthur / Gilgamboa [pedigree]
- 2nd season chaser Plus, 6 chases to date (Noble Yeats won and Rocky Creek, Shutthefrontdoor
and Farclas placed 5th with <8 chases on their CVs)
- Stamina-strong: most impressive run to date, 3L 2nd in January’s 29f Warwick
Classic (won by One For Arthur prior to his GN win as a 2nd season
chaser), staying on very strongly with 11-05 on testing ground. The form of
that race looks reasonable enough (3rd losing but 4th
winning next run off same mark)
- Mark & Weight-could prove to be
thrown in: GNOR 145, +3 on Warwick, high enough to be confident of a run but translating
to a featherweight 10-04
- Ground-probably versatile: Showed a turn of foot when finishing like a train to win his 18-runner debut
chase over 19f on Y, in which he’d been badly disadvantaged by mayhem. Close 2nd
on Gd/Y in his sole PtP and 2nd (albeit 31L) to Ahoy Senor on quickish
GS over 3m and Newbury’s stiff jumps (curiously, Noble Yeats had also finished
2nd to Ahoy Senor over 3m prior to his GN win).
- Temperament emerged after that when he Refused to Race and on next outing downed
tools after 5 fences (literally stopping when in midfield). Then sold (to Noble
Yeats’ former owner) and moved yards from de Bromhead to Willie Mullins and
made a “Patrick Mullins’ Project”, with a customised training regime.
- BD early in debut for new connections in December’s Paddy Power Hdcp (Noble
Yeats was 9th in the PP Hdcp prior to the GN) before his fine run at
Warwick. No apparent issue in either run.
- Entered in Kim Muir (5/1) (and Midlands National - unlikely), a Festival handicap will be a stiff test of his
temperament, possibly also his ability on a decent surface (though rain is
forecast)
- 1 Pedigree Plus: Sire and Damsire both
G1 winners on the flat (at 20f and 12f respectively) – like
Noble Yeats and 5 other GN winners since 2013 (a very strong stat).
- Distantly related to Bonanza Boy (x2 Welsh GN, one with 11.11, and GN5th with 11.07), his pedigree is similar to Gilgamboa’s (4th GN 2016). Both sired
by Westerner (also sired 34f Midlands Nat winner Truckers Lodge) and Be
My Native (Damsire of Gilgamboa and GN2nd Black Apalachi) is Mr
Incredible’s 2nd Damsire (like Any Second Now). His 3rd Damsire, Boreen, sired the dams of many stout stayers,
including 3 winners/near-missers of 4m+ chases, most notably Royal Emperor
(close 3rd in Scot Nat with 11.04)
- Only stat fail is absence of Wild Risk on his damside but has WR on his
Sire’s damside (yes, you got it, just like Noble Yeats)
- Hurdles best RPR139, with a prep 32 days prior to make 3 runs in the
season, again, perfect stats-wise.
Conclusion: Mr Incredible would be a “must have” for my team but for those 2 shows of temperament. With signs that his new yard may have found the key to him, I’m going to take a chance and add him prior to the Kim Muir – if he wins it, as he may well do, I expect him to go off favourite at Aintree. If I don’t back him now, I risk doing precisely what I did with Tiger in 2018.Only 1 other currently has a Winning Calibre profile (a strong one Pedigree-wise) but there are 2 material issues:
DUNBOYNE (8yo, 10-00, 50/1) #59, should make the cut
Stat-profile: Winning Calibre - 1 fail (0 Golden), 4 Pluses (4 Pedigree)
Change potential: no
Ground pref: needs Soft ground
Parallel: Noble Yeats
o Damsire (Definite Article) won G1 on the flat, Damsire of a G1 winner at 15f in Japan and top-class 3 miler Champ
o DS 2 (Presenting) was DS of Rathvinden (cl 3rd GN 2019) and sired Ballabriggs (GN 2011) & Pleasant Company (cl 2nd GN 2018)
o DS 3 (Pitpan) was DS of Slim Pickings (cl 3rd GN 2007)
Conclusion: With his apparent need for Soft, I’ll happily make Dunboyne a last-minute decision – that jumping trait is a worry but going LH in a big Festival handicap should tell us a lot more.
PENCILFULLOFLEAD (9yo, 10-12, 40/1) #23, guaranteed a run
Stat-profile: Place Potential - 2 fails (0 Golden), 1 Pedigree Plus
Change potential: no
Ground pref: probably needs Soft ground
No entries so we can assume that his 5th 19L in the Bobbyjo was his final run before the GN.
A further word of caution about all of Elliott's Aintree legion, certainly Dunboyne and Pencilfulloflead. It wouldn't surprise if most or all also get an entry for the Irish GN (5 days prior) and there is a risk that soft ground preferences may dictate their destination.
Conclusion: I backed him at 33s prior to the Bobbyjo, expecting a stronger run. My view remains he's certainly one to have if it comes up Soft (and it may do) but if I hadn't put money down I'd be waiting till much nearer the day - no obvious reason for his price to drop in the meantime.
So these are the only 4 from the Long List of 15 with stat-ratings that (assuming safe preps) already make them Winning Calibre (on any ground THE BIG BREAKAWAY and MR INCREDIBLE and, on Soft, DUNBOYNE) or Place Potential (on Soft, PENCILFULLOFLEAD).
Of the other 11, I’m going to eliminate LE MILOS (3 fails (0) and 1 Ped Plus), who has the potential to contend for a fair way but, at best and at a stretch, is minor place potential (his disappointing defeat in his final prep at Kelso on Saturday only confirming this impression) - certainly not sexy enough for 25/1.
I’m also going to “park” for the moment NOBLE YEATS, who has clearly progressed this season and whose stat-rating of 3 Fails (0) & 3 Pluses gives him every chance of being in the vicinity going over the last. But, again, 11/1 is just too short, given at least 11-11 on his back. Even if he wins the Gold Cup, his GN 2023 stat-profile won’t change.
That leaves 9 to run through, who can elevate their GN stat-ratings materially at Cheltenham or in this Sunday’s Leinster National.
Aiming to summarise all of these by the end of the week.
TTFN
One observation I'd like to make about a big weight, that may apply particularly for the 2023 GN.
With Noble Yeats fav and 2 with topweight at 16~20/1, it’s easy to overlook the stats that weigh very heavily against GN runners with >11.06, of which there may be as many as 7 this year.
Two points re the 2023 GN:
1. We have the extra 2lbs for the topweight (now 11-12), not seen since 2008 (pre-course and fence changes). Bottom weight remains at 10-00 and we’ll likely see runners with 10-00 this year. So the 2023 GN will see the widest absolute weight-range (26lbs) of any GN since 2004 (4lbs higher than the average weight range in that time).2. In another way, notwithstanding the course changes, we’ve returned to that era because, also, compression of the weights is de facto finished. GNORs were once the prevailing ORs of the runners but from 2000 the BHA handicapper (then Phil Smith) was given permission to adjust the GNORs at his discretion. He would occasionally “up” the OR of low-rated course specialists to make sure they made the cut but he’d also “compress” the GN handicap by allotting as many as 7 of the highest-rated entries (without course form) in a single race a GNOR up to 7lbs below their prevailing OR.This was, of course, to try to encourage winners and thus more entries from “higher quality” horses.
So, when Many Clouds won with 11-09 in 2015, his GNOR160 had been compressed by 5lbs. He beat Saint Are by 2L but (regardless of the rights or wrongs), without that 5lb gift, IMO not only would he not have won but, with virtually every other runner carrying 2~4lbs less (as he’d have run as joint top weight off 165), he may even have struggled to be placed.
In any event, though some have occasionally made the frame, the fact is until Any Second Now (clearly a lover of the course) near-missed with 11.08 last year, Many Clouds was the ONLY runner with >11.06 to win or near-miss (<5L) in 37 GN renewals since Red Rum’s 3rd win in 1977.
With Smith retiring in 2018, while handicapper-discretion remains for the GN weights (much to Michael O’Leary’s and now Ted Walsh’s more understandable annoyance), “compression” is now minimal.
Only 1 runner this year has any weight concession (joint topweight Conflated by 1lb). In fact, like all the other Irish entries, Galvin (11-11) has been given an extra 1lb on his current Irish mark.
Those of a certain vintage will recall the pre-Compression years to 2000 and the annual mantra that echoed until 2009 when Mon Mome kicked off a run of 4 successive winners with 11.00~11.06: “you can put a line through anything with 11 stone or more” (more correctly it was >11.06).
No doubt I’m guaranteeing a topweight victory in 2023 by saying this, and maybe the post-2012 changes over time will be proven to have made life easier for runners with big weights (I’m doubtful), but a comparable mantra may be due for a comeback.
Ash Tree Meadow
Burrows Saint
Frontal Assault
Sporting John
Also with a re-ordering of the groups on the same GNOR, updated by current OR, Mr Incredible is now #44 (top of the 5 with GNOR145) - 99% sure to get a run.
Conflated
Galvin
Fury Road
Royale Pagailles
Franco De Port
Carefully Selected
Delta Work
Gaillard Du Mesnil
Lifetime Ambition
Longhouse Poet
Coko Beach
Pencilfulloflead
Darasso
Diol Ker
Farclas
Ain't That A Shame
Lord Lariat
Velvet Elvis
A Wave Of The Sea
Mr Incredible
Gabbys Cross
Ashtown lad
Recite A Prayer
Death Duty
Dunboyne
Punitive
Defi Bleu
Gevrey
Milan Native
Capt Kangaroo
Fakiera
Darrens Hope
FARCLAS not confirmed for Sunday's Leinster National and, without Festival entries, time's run out for him to achieve the necessary profile (and indeed prove his wellbeing) prior to the GN.
Serious candidate.
Run down on him and all the others on my radar screen I haven’t yet gassed on about by the end of the week.
I’m going to start running through those we haven’t yet covered on the Long List. I’ll dribble them out over the next few days to avoid an avalanche of info.
As noted before, this is a funny old year. The weight structure seems to make it a throw-back to the early- or even pre-Compression era and it’s 16 years since there were as few early “definites” for my team.
Quantity and proven staying quality of the entries is poor, perhaps because of which I can’t recall there being so many running at the Festival that still can (and need to) elevate their stat-profiles to Winning or Place potential. Usually there’s 4 or (at tops) 5 – next week there’s 8. So, without a Festival crystal ball, value assessments are particularly relevant.
Let’s start with one whose profile is set and has some appeal but at the price is unlikely to make my team:
GAILLARD DU MESNIL (7yo, 11-00, 16/1) #19 in the Weights
Stat-profile: Minor Place Potential
Change potential: no
Likely Prep: 30f Nov Chase
Ground pref: indifferent
Parallel: Burrows Saint
- 2nd season chaser Plus, still a
novice
- Gr 1
winner over hurdles and fences but best chase form when 5L 3rd to L’Homme
Presse (Ahoy Senor 2nd) at levels in the Gr1 Brown Advisory at last
year’s Festival, followed a month later by an eye-catching, keeping-on 3rd
(7L) under 11-08 in the Irish GN – his only handicap chase to date (OR154 - relatively well-treated with GNOR155)
- Highly consistent, 1st
or 2nd in all 5 hurdles and making the frame 7 of 8 chases, incl all
3 at 24f+ (1 win).
- Pedigree similar to stablemate,
Irish GN winner & GN 4th Burrows Saint – both sired by
Saint Des Saints, whose progeny don’t have great record as yet at 4m+, Burrows
Saint’s 4th (but emptying badly by the last) being the only frame-maker in 11
attempts, 6 in the GN (5 different sons, only 1 other completing)
- Can easily
see him matching Burrows with a minor place but a win looks improbable, so 16/1
isn’t tempting.
Not part of the model’s reckoning but maybe worth noting. His most likely engagement next week is as odds-on fav in the 30f Nov chase. The record of that typically-gruelling race (with "enthusiastic" Amateur jocks) in terms of immediate follow-ups in Nationals, has been poor down the years, both as a 4m contest and thus far over 30f (last 3 renewals).In the last 9 years, 12 that finished in the first 4 have run in a follow-up National within 6 weeks (2 at Aintree). Only 4 have completed (best 6th) and even Tiger PU’d 34 days later at Fairyhouse. 2 have done so in the last 3 years (Run Wild Fred, F at 8th in GN, and Escaria Ten, PU in Irish).
Nothing’s impossible but it’s a race that tends to take its toll, at least in the short term.
Now let’s talk about the Heavyweights. A few stats to chew on:
As noted earlier, while they have made the frame, only 1 horse has carried >11.06 to win a GN since Red Rum in 1977.
That was Many Clouds in 2015 with 11-09, whose winning margin was 2L but whose GNOR was set 5lb lower than his OR prevailing at weights day - reflecting a handicapping policy that is no more.
That said, Any Second Now (11-08) was beaten last year by only 2L, reflecting an evident capability for previous GN winners and near-missers to make the frame again despite that burden (Montys Pass, Hedgehunter and Don’t Push It also doing so). But, Many Clouds aside, only Any Second Now and Hedgehunter have borne 11-07+ and finished within 10L of the winner since The Thinker (7L 3rd) in 1989.
This is relevant to 3 on the Long List: Conflated (11-12), Noble Yeats and Galvin (both 11-11).
Let’s add another stat (probably not applicable to Galvin):
Only 1 horse has ever completed a Gold Cup & GN same-season double, the legendary Golden Miller in 1934, though Garrison Savannah came agonisingly within 5L of matching him, headed after The Elbow, in 1991 (carrying 11-01 at Aintree).
But, though others have near-missed, Many Clouds (again) is the only horse just to even have a final spin in the Gold Cup (24L 6th) before winning a GN since Rough Quest did so in 1996; close 2nd in the GC and thrown in at Aintree with only 10-07 and a youthful Fitzy on his back.
There are more examples since 2000 of GC runners placing in the ensuing GN (Anibale Fly twice, My Will and Hedgehunter, famously 2nd in both 22 days apart, Royal Auclair and Whats Up Boys) but only Hedgehunter did so with as much as 11-12 on his back at Aintree.
Put the 2 stats together and, especially if he were involved in a hard finish at Cheltenham, it’s a huge ask for CONFLATED (9yo, 11-12, 20/1 NRNB), Elliott’s GC hope, to win at Aintree and even though, like Many Clouds, he’d benefit from a 29-day recovery-time this year, he’s by no means committed to run in the GN (Elliott saying at weights’ unveiling: “it might be a year too early”)
If he does line up:
o Sire Yeats (same as Noble Yeats) – 3 wins and 2 places for offspring at 31.5f+ from 19 attempts
o Damsire Presenting and DS2 Strong Gale a powerful combo with many GN connections and identical to Rathvinden and DS3 Choral Society was Miinnehoma’s damsire.
- His stat-profile is a tad short of the necessary for any runner carrying even 11.03+, thus his rating is 3 fails [1 Golden]
- A 3rd season chaser (twice Gr 1 winner at 3m and best RPR172) the Catch 22 is that he can only elevate his GN profile to Winning Calibre by being there or thereabouts in the 26.5f Blue-Riband. Who knows whether that would make it more or less likely he heads for the GN?
He's very much got the Pedigree of a GN winner (even very distantly related to Grittar and Maori Venture) but, at 20/1 for the only NRNB quote for this April, the combination of weight and Gold Cup are too much of a deterrence IMO.
May I request Delta Work's profile in the spotlight next/soon? Have jumped the gun and put a little e/w on him based upon a soft spot following last year's Cheltenham performance and placing in the GN with a lovely antepost price (thanks to this thread!).
No worries - asap, hopefully today.
Cheers
If the GC & GN is a tough combo, with a few days extra recovery and perhaps taking a less extreme toll, the Festival Cross Country is a road to GN victory (or near-victory) more frequently travelled, though successfully so to date only by horses of Gordon Elliott.
It was Silver Birch's GN win in 2007 (with 10-06), after a close 2nd in the XC (then a handicap) 32 days earlier, that put Elliott on the map training-wise.
Cause Of Causes nearly did the double 24 days apart (2nd 4.5L at Aintree with 10-13) in 2016 and of course Tiger did the double-double in 2018 (10-13) & 19 (11-05), 31 and 24 days being the respective gaps. He grudgingly handed over the XC baton to Delta Work last year (3rd 22L at Aintree with 11-09, 24 days later).
All of them, Elliott-trained.
This year GALVIN (9yo, 11-11, 33/1) seems to be following this same path, though with the benefit of 31 days recovery.
Current Stat-profile: No cigar - 3 fails (1 Golden), 1 Pedigree Plus
Change potential: If winning XC and with an RPR matching Tiger's 171 in 2019, Strong Place Potential
Ground pref: better ground probably suits best
If he’s fit and the ground is decent, I expect him to turn XC fav Delta Work over and, on that basis, 33/1 for the GN puts him very much on my short-list. A smidgeon of value there methinks, but only if one's willing to take the gamble on his fitness and back him ahead of Cheltenham.
That’s the thorny question to which I’ll attempt to figure out my answer over the weekend and a large scotch or three.