Fair bit of rain forecast on Merseyside until Easter weekend and off and on for the week of the Aintree meeting. Good news for Delta Work if it pans out that way - anything softer than last year a big plus.
Rumours are Pencilfulloflead will be scratched at the next Forfeit Stage next Tuesday - presumably injured, hopefully not serious.
Same for Threeunderfive,Happygolucky and Remastered and Hewick we already knew about
Ga Law hasn't qualified.
So by my reckoning, assuming Cilaos Emery also doesn't qualify (carrying 12-00 has to be placed first 4 in competitive looking 26f chase on Saturday), if all the rest were to stand their ground at declarations on 13 April, 31 of the 40 starters would be Irish-trained and the cut would come at 145.
Of course, there will be more scratched prior to then however.
I still estimate Back On The Lash (#60 at last Forfeit Stage) should get a run with GNOR140 even with a 2lb drop in his mark announced today.
Updated handicap marks for British runners:
Corach Rambler 156 (puts him officially 10lbs well in) Sam Brown 156 (3lbs wrong) Cloudy Glen 142 (3lbs wrong) The Big Breakaway 149 (2lbs wrong) Mister Coffey 143 (2lbs wrong) Back On The Lash 138 (2lbs wrong)
Just heard that sadly Farclas (not unexpected) and Death Duty are out - saves me the "shall I, shan't I?"
I'd better have a quick squint again further down the weights, though assuming Any Second Now doesn't get injured before decs, anything below Back On The Lash will be 2lbs+ out of the handicap.
Great work Mr Molloy I know you are not convinced by Longhouse Poet but it could get its required ground. That is a long run in at Aintree though as plenty of horses have discovered.
Rumours are Pencilfulloflead will be scratched at the next Forfeit Stage next Tuesday - presumably injured, hopefully not serious.
Same for Threeunderfive,Happygolucky and Remastered and Hewick we already knew about
Ga Law hasn't qualified.
So by my reckoning, assuming Cilaos Emery also doesn't qualify (carrying 12-00 has to be placed first 4 in competitive looking 26f chase on Saturday), if all the rest were to stand their ground at declarations on 13 April, 31 of the 40 starters would be Irish-trained and the cut would come at 145.
Of course, there will be more scratched prior to then however.
I still estimate Back On The Lash (#60 at last Forfeit Stage) should get a run with GNOR140 even with a 2lb drop in his mark announced today.
Updated handicap marks for British runners:
Corach Rambler 156 (puts him officially 10lbs well in) Sam Brown 156 (3lbs wrong) Cloudy Glen 142 (3lbs wrong) The Big Breakaway 149 (2lbs wrong) Mister Coffey 143 (2lbs wrong) Back On The Lash 138 (2lbs wrong)
Already known: Our Power 147 (6lbs well-in)
...looks like PaddyPower are listening to you as they have suspended any cash out options for Pencilfulloflead: bastards!
Great work Mr Molloy I know you are not convinced by Longhouse Poet but it could get its required ground. That is a long run in at Aintree though as plenty of horses have discovered.
Cheers @Starinnaddick Absolutely, slower ground than last year would really help the Poet. Got a lot going for him pedigree-wise - including sharing sire with Noble Yeats and Damsire (Moscow Society) with Seabass. I definitely see him in contention for a long way and Martin Brassil knows him better than anyone. Maybe tactics and ground will make the crucial difference this time. Best of luck.
Rumours are Pencilfulloflead will be scratched at the next Forfeit Stage next Tuesday - presumably injured, hopefully not serious.
Same for Threeunderfive,Happygolucky and Remastered and Hewick we already knew about
Ga Law hasn't qualified.
So by my reckoning, assuming Cilaos Emery also doesn't qualify (carrying 12-00 has to be placed first 4 in competitive looking 26f chase on Saturday), if all the rest were to stand their ground at declarations on 13 April, 31 of the 40 starters would be Irish-trained and the cut would come at 145.
Of course, there will be more scratched prior to then however.
I still estimate Back On The Lash (#60 at last Forfeit Stage) should get a run with GNOR140 even with a 2lb drop in his mark announced today.
Updated handicap marks for British runners:
Corach Rambler 156 (puts him officially 10lbs well in) Sam Brown 156 (3lbs wrong) Cloudy Glen 142 (3lbs wrong) The Big Breakaway 149 (2lbs wrong) Mister Coffey 143 (2lbs wrong) Back On The Lash 138 (2lbs wrong)
Already known: Our Power 147 (6lbs well-in)
...looks like PaddyPower are listening to you as they have suspended any cash out options for Pencilfulloflead: bastards!
Sorry @meldrew66 I bailed (bet365) when I saw he was lame for that Down Royal race but could easily have hung on and paid the same price. I hope your picks more than make up for it on the day. Cheers
Assuming Conflated is definitely scratched, then all the GNOR145s are in, including Battleoverdoyen. 12 more to come out above Back On The Lash by 13 April for him to get a run.
Assuming Conflated is definitely scratched, then all the GNOR145s are in, including Battleoverdoyen. 12 more to come out above Back On The Lash by 13 April for him to get a run.
I will be surprised if Back on the Lash fails to get a run. He is 129/1 on Betfair but it is win only. I am considering having a tenner but i would prefer an each way bet.
Assuming Conflated is definitely scratched, then all the GNOR145s are in, including Battleoverdoyen. 12 more to come out above Back On The Lash by 13 April for him to get a run.
I will be surprised if Back on the Lash fails to get a run. He is 129/1 on Betfair but it is win only. I am considering having a tenner but i would prefer an each way bet.
He should do but next Tuesday's 2nd Forfeit will tell us a lot as there were a lot of GN entries that ran last week and Aintree may be considered too soon. I'd expect some more to come out, in addition to those rumoured. The there's the Irish GN on Easter Monday 9 April, which might take some out of Aintree consideration, especially as per ground preferences. Aintree Confirmation Stage that same day, 9 April, before Declarations on Thursday 13 April. But no Reserves this year so he has to make the top 40 by 13th April.
GN entries also entered for Topham the previous day:
Ashtown Lad - Skelton said he didn't get home when 5th in the Scot Nat (patently clear) so Topham logical Battleoverdoyen - was switched from GN to Topham last year - anything's possible but he got outpaced then and the talk from Elliott has been to roll the dice in the big one Escaria Ten - Elliott's said he didn't get the trip last GN (possibly a tad harsh given he'd had an injury-delayed campaign) but would be logical to run him over the shorter trip Fantasikas - unlikely to make cut in GN Francky Du Berlais - 4th last Topham and didn't get home in the 30f XC so would be nuts not to run him over the 21f Gevrey - even if makes GN cut will be a mile out of the handicap so nuts not to run him in Friday's race Gin On Lime - unexposed >24f save for UR in XC so could go either way - owner had to scratch Pencilfulloflead so might sway opting for the biggie
Sure enough, lots of double entries for both Aintree and Irish GN (5 days earlier) incl Mr Incredible, Pencilfulloflead & Dunboyne
Conflated Galvin Fury Road Royale Pagailles Franco De Port Carefully Selected Delta Work Gaillard Du Mesnil Lifetime Ambition Longhouse Poet Coko Beach Pencilfulloflead Darasso Diol Ker Farclas Ain't That A Shame Lord Lariat Velvet Elvis A Wave Of The Sea Mr Incredible Gabbys Cross Ashtown lad Recite A Prayer Death Duty Dunboyne Punitive Defi Bleu Gevrey Milan Native Capt Kangaroo Fakiera Darrens Hope
Of those with GN entries originally also entered for the Irish GN on 9 April, only the following remain with the Fairyhouse option:
Royale Pagaille Carefully Selected Gaillard Du Mesnil Lifetime Ambition Longhouse Poet Coko Beach Darasso Diol Ker Ain't That A Shame Lord Lariat Velvet Elvis A Wave of The Sea Gabbys Cross Dunboyne Punitive Defi Bleu Gevrey Milan Native Capt Kangaroo Fakiera Darrens Hope
In other words, notably, Mr Incredible is now definitely targeted at Aintree. Galvin too, as we already knew.
Rumours are Pencilfulloflead will be scratched at the next Forfeit Stage next Tuesday - presumably injured, hopefully not serious.
Same for Threeunderfive,Happygolucky and Remastered and Hewick we already knew about
Ga Law hasn't qualified.
So by my reckoning, assuming Cilaos Emery also doesn't qualify (carrying 12-00 has to be placed first 4 in competitive looking 26f chase on Saturday), if all the rest were to stand their ground at declarations on 13 April, 31 of the 40 starters would be Irish-trained and the cut would come at 145.
Of course, there will be more scratched prior to then however.
I still estimate Back On The Lash (#60 at last Forfeit Stage) should get a run with GNOR140 even with a 2lb drop in his mark announced today.
Updated handicap marks for British runners:
Corach Rambler 156 (puts him officially 10lbs well in) Sam Brown 156 (3lbs wrong) Cloudy Glen 142 (3lbs wrong) The Big Breakaway 149 (2lbs wrong) Mister Coffey 143 (2lbs wrong) Back On The Lash 138 (2lbs wrong)
Already known: Our Power 147 (6lbs well-in)
BHA handicapper has also updated marks for the Irish runners, including:
Mr Incredible 150 - 5lbs well in Delta Work 160 - 1lb well in Galvin 160 - 6lbs wrong
Seems like both Timeform and the Racing Post (who originally gave Delta Work an RPR168 but now upped to 169) view the quality of the Festival XC higher than the handicapper.
Makes little to no difference to my model’s ratings. Delta Work, Mr Incredible and The Big Breakaway remain the 3 top-rated on any ground.
Of course it's not irrelevant that horses have run well since their GN weights were set but the short-price handicap “good things” that have flopped in a GN are legion - in recent years, 8/1 Rocky Creek was 9lbs well-in in 2015 (17th 100L), 10/1 Definitly Red was 10lbs well-in in 2017 (PU) and 11/2 fav Cloth Cap a whopping 14lbs in 2021 (PU).
While far from an infallible guide, down the years there are many GN debutants that have made the frame (some going on to do so again) for whom a clue lay in genealogy - specifically (and importantly for the stamina gene in horse breeding) a connection via the dam-line within 5 Generations (or sometimes even more distantly; within 9 Gens) with a previous GN winner or frame-maker or other notable stayer. For example:
2012: Cappa Bleu 4th - closely related via his maternal Great-Grandmother (3rd Dam), who was Mother (Dam) of the top Irish stayer Cahervillahow (carried 11-12 when SHd 2nd in 1991 Irish GN and of the memorable silks - pink with red hearts)
2013: Teaforthree 3rd - [more distantly] Mely Moss (close 2nd 2000 GN) Rare Bob 5th (not debutant but BD prior run) - Bindaree (won 2002 GN)
2014: Double Seven 3rd - Cappa Bleu Alvarado 4th - 1/2 brother to Character Building (close 2nd 4m NH Cup) & [dist] Miinnehoma (won 1994 GN)
2016: The Last Samuri 2nd - [dist] Many Clouds (won 2015 GN) Gilgamboa 4th - [dist] Lastofthebrownies (4th 1989 GN & 5th 1990 GN)
2018: Pleasant Company 2nd (not a debutant but unlucky in prior run) - Comply Or Die (won 2008 GN)
2019: Walk In The Mill 4th - [dist] Cappa Bleu & Double Seven
2021: Balko Des Flos 2nd - [dist] Garrison Savannah (2nd 1991 GN) and Carvills Hill (won 1991 Welsh GN with 11-12) Any Second Now 3rd - Gilgamboa
Again, it is not an infallible guide but among this year's GN debutants (likely to make the cut) with family connections within 5 Generations of possible note are:
Le Milos (4th Dam) - Cogry (close 2nd Scot Nat and unlucky close 3rd in Midlands National with 11-00)
The Big Breakaway (2nd Dam) - Rathvinden (close 3rd 2019 GN)
Corach Rambler (4th Dam) - Any Second Now
Dunboyne (3rd Dam) - Ms Parfois (close 2nd Midlands National with 11-04 and close 2nd 4m NH Cup)
And, though this too is far from infallible (obviously!), these are the stallions represented by progeny this year (and likely to make the cut) whose offspring have 20%+ frame-making rate in chases over 4m+ in 10+ runs:
With multiple winners:
Gold Well (30 runs, 3 different winners, 5 wins [Scot Nat - Win My Wings], 6 places = 36.7% frame-making) - Galvin Cloudings (29 runs, 4 different winners, 4 wins [GN - Many Clouds], 5 places= 31%) - Cloudy Glen Yeats (19 runs, 3 different winners, 3 wins [GN - Noble Yeats], 2 places = 26.3%) - Noble Yeats, Longhouse Poet, Dunboyne Oscar (46 runs, 3 different winners, 3 wins [GN - Minella Times], 8 places = 23.9%) - Any Second Now
Black Sam Bellamy (7, 3 different winners, 4 wins [0 Class 1), 1 place = 71.4%) - Sam Brown Scorpion (3, 1 [Mid Nat - Major Dundee], 1 = 66.7%) - Rapper Shirocco (5, 1 [4m Novice NH Cup - Minella Rocco], 0 places = 20%) - Le Milos, Velvet Elvis, Eva's Oskar, Fortescue
And those whose offspring have <10% frame-making rate and no wins from 10+ runs at 4m+: Martaline (11, 0, 0) - Diol Ker, Vanillier Kapgarde (11, 0, 1) - Lifetime Ambition Saint Des Saints (11, 0, 1) - Gaillard Du Mesnil, Francky Du Berlais (interesting how he went really well in the XC but was out of gas around 29f - just as Burrows Saint was when 4th in the 2021 GN)
Cilaos Emery didn't manage the first 4 at Kelso yesterday and so joins Glamorgan Duke and Ga Law as failing to qualify to run in the GN. With others known to be scratched ahead of Tuesday's 2nd Forfeit Stage, it seems like we're currently down to 64 remaining. By my reckoning, to make the cut, Back On The Lash needs another 12 to come out by Declarations on 13 April. Above him, 14 have entries for the Irish GN and 5 others for the Topham.
As we all know, the changes to the fences post-2012 have had a dramatic effect on the nature of the test that is the Aintree Grand National. It's changed from being a test of extreme stamina and jumping prowess to one of extreme stamina at high cruising speed. That's also had a dramatic effect on the profile of horses that tend to run well in a modern Grand National, illustrated by 2 strong stats.
1. AGE
In 24 GNs from 1988~2012, only 2 8 year olds won it. The average age of all winners was 10 and 8 of the 24 winners were 11 or 12.
2013 and 2014 were transitional years, with riders under orders to drop the early pace to minimise the risk of fatalities. Thus famously, for the first time in history, all 40 runners cleared Bechers Brook (6th fence) in 2013. Times were 6~8 secs slow of std on officially "Good to Soft" and, once again, both winners were 11 year olds.
Still on GS but run in a time 7 secs fast of standard, 2015 was the first of the truly-run "modern GNs" and it saw the first 8 year old winner (Many Clouds) since 2002. Given the relative outperformance by younger runners ever since, it was no shock to anyone observing this trend to see the first 7 yo winner for 82 years last year.
In total, stats for the 7 GNs from 2015 confirm a marked outperformance by 8 year olds with 7 and 9 year-olds performing as per representation. Indeed all 7 winners were 7~9 yo:
7yo - 4.7% of runners contributed 1 winner (7.7% of the 7 winners and 6 near-missers <5L) and 5.7% of frame-makers 8yo - 19.9% = 4 winners & 1 near-misser (38.5%) and 34.3% of frame-makers 9yo - 28.6% = 2 winners & 2 n-m (30.8%) and 25.7% of frame-makers 10yo - 22.8% = 0 winner & 2 n-m (15.4%) and 17.1% of frame-makers 11yo - 13.8% = 0 winner & 1 n-m (7.7%) and 11.4% of frame-makers 12yo+ - 9.8% = 0 winners or n-m and 5.7% of frame-makers
Also, all 12 of those aged 10+ to make the frame were either Grade 1 winners over fences at 3m+ that had come down by >14lbs in the handicap (Balko Des Flos and Santini) or had won at 28f+ or made the frame or run well without luck in a prior GN.
So all is not lost for Any Second Now, Delta Work, The Big Dog, (possibly) Cloudy Glen or Battleoverdoyen but not a promising stat for:
Sam Brown
Carefully Selected
Darasso
The Shunter
Roi Mage
Hill Sixteen
Francky Du Berlais
2. HURDLING ABILITY
They may be famously tall and/or deep but the spruce fences are unlike conventional steeplechase fences and to be able to jump them and travel at the high cruising speed of a modern GN, there's a strong statistical correlation with having shown a reasonable ability over hurdles.
Since 2013, all 9 winners, indeed all 45 that finished 1st~5th that had previously run at least 3 times over hurdles (only Walk In The Mill hadn't run in 3 hurdles but he already had a Becher Chase win on his CV) had achieved a hurdles RPR of >125. In fact, all winners and runners-up and 91% of all frame-makers had notched 130+.
Those still entered for the 2023 GN (and likely to make the cut) that have failed to notch >125 in 3+ hurdle races:
Royale Pagaille (best 111 in 4)
Le Milos (125 in 13)
Quick Wave (111 in 6)
Ain't That A Shame (117 in 3)
Corach Rambler (122 in 3)
Lord Lariat (118 in 11)
Enjoy D'Allen (120 in 12)
Gabby's Cross (124 in 7)
Recite A Prayer (108 in 3)
Fortescue (110 in 5)
All of this said, there should be no such thing as a single elimination stat - all stats are capable of being broken. But these 2 are among the Golden Stat-Tests that very few, if any, GN frame-makers from 2013~22 have failed.
Rapper and Chris's Dream will apparently be scratched in tomorrow's Forfeit Stage. As of now, 62 left and Back On The Lash is #50. Still 19 horses above him with entries for either Irish GN or Topham.
Two more damside "Pedigree-Plus" stats, reflecting the growing trend in NH pedigrees and those successful in a modern GN for flat speed over a trip.
Independently, each shows a statistically meaningful correlation but putting them together produces a remarkable result.
Of the 356 runners in the 9 GNs 2013~22:
1. 78 of them (21.9%) had a Damsire that had offspring (as sire or damsire) that had won a G1 at 10f+ on the flat AND a 2nd or 3rd Damsire that had either done likewise or had Damsired a GN 1st~4th.
That 21.9% contributed 7 of the 9 winners (77.8%) and another 3 of the 7 finishing <5L of them (62.5% of winners and near-missers). Indeed it accounted for 42.2% of all 1st~5th in those GNs. In other words, 1 in 4 of runners ticking this box made the frame (compared to a random distribution of 1 in 8)
Of this year's entries down to #60 at the weights, the following ticked this box:
The Big Dog
Capodanno
Coko Beach
Le Milos
Cape Gentleman
Roi Mage
A Wave Of The Sea
Minella Trump
Velvet Elvis
Ain't That A Shame
Mister Incredible
Mister Coffey
Ashtown Lad
Our Power
Dunboyne
Back On The Lash
2. 41 of the 356 GN runners 2013~22 (11.5%) had the genetically-electric combo on the damside of Wild Risk and Bold Ruler.
That 11.5% contributed 5 of the 9 winners (55.6%) and another 3 near-missers (50% of winners and near-missers). It accounted for 28.9% of all 1st~5th. Thus, 1 in 3 of them made the frame (again compared to 1 in 8, if outcomes were random).
Of this year's remaining entries down to #60 at the weights, the following ticked this box:
Conflated (probably to be scratched)
Delta Work
Lifetime Ambition
Coko Beach
Longhouse Poet
A Wave Of The Sea
Dunboyne
Combination. If we put the 2 stats together, just 13 of the 356 runners (only 9 different horses) 2013~22 ticked both boxes. They were:
2013: Tatenen - Fell at 12th fence 2016: Rule The World - Won 2017: One For Arthur - Won 2018: Tiger Roll - Won 2019: Tiger Roll - Won / Magic of Light - 2nd(2.75L) / One For Arthur - 6th / Rock The Kasbah - BD 2021: Minella Times - Won / Magic Of Light - UR 4th fence 2022: Fiddlerontheroof 5th / Minella Times - BD / Coko Beach - 8th
So, 13 runs produced 5 winners and 3 places. 5 of the 9 different horses ticking both boxes were a winner or near-misser.
Of this year's entries 3 tick both boxes:
Coko Beach (didn't get home last time and runs off 5lb higher GNOR this year)
A Wave Of The Sea (shit or bust - Minella Times or Tatenen)
Dunboyne (due to carry just 10-00, he's also by Yeats, who sired last year's GN winner Noble Yeats)
In a nutshell, DUNBOYNE (66/1 or 40/1 NRNB) has the strongest GN-starred pedigree of any potential runner this year.
Will he get 34f? His family connection via 3rd Dam to the dour stayer Ms Parfois suggests yes.
The biggest issue for him is ground since, like his relative, he really needs it soft or at least slowish GS. FWIW, we're due a Soft ground GN and the forecast is for rain for the rest of the week on Merseyside, though drier with rain still about up to 15 April.
Will he run? Disconcertingly, Elliott speaks of running as many as possible in the Irish GN, 5 days prior to Aintree, with Dunboyne mentioned as one of them. Any bet on him right now must be NRNB and accompanied by a regular rain dance.
In addition to those we knew about, Irish GN winner Lord Lariat joins Franco de Port and Ashtown Lad as defections at today's Forfeit Stage.
Scratched:
HEWICK CONFLATED FRANCO DE PORT CHRIS'S DREAM CILAOS EMERY LORD LARIAT ASHTOWN LAD RAPPER GLAMORGAN DUKE PENCILFULLOFLEAD HAPPYGOLUCKY GA LAW REMASTERED FARCLAS THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE DEATH DUTY
So 57 remain and now guaranteed a run are all those on GNOR142, carrying 10-01 if Any Second Now is declared on 13 April. Our Power is now #41 Dunboyne #42 Back On The Lash #45
16 remaining above Back On The Lash have entries for either Irish GN or Topham.
Come on Back on the Lash... since you tipped him i have had the odd bet on him NRNB of course, so first step lets hope he gets in.
This week any change i win from bets will be going to Dunboyne
Appreciate the vote of confidence @johnnybev1987 They're a good hedge for one another, ground-wise. There is a real chance IMO of a long-shot stunner this year but we need to dodge those slings and arrows. I certainly wouldn't want to omit Delta Work from a betting slip - as near to a banker to make the frame if he avoids misfortune as one's likely to see in a GN IMO. Fingers crossed.
Comments
Balko Des Flos was trained by Henry de Bromhead, of course, not Gordon Elliott.
I know, the whole thing’s ruined
Good news for Delta Work if it pans out that way - anything softer than last year a big plus.
Same for Threeunderfive, Happygolucky and Remastered and Hewick we already knew about
Ga Law hasn't qualified.
So by my reckoning, assuming Cilaos Emery also doesn't qualify (carrying 12-00 has to be placed first 4 in competitive looking 26f chase on Saturday), if all the rest were to stand their ground at declarations on 13 April, 31 of the 40 starters would be Irish-trained and the cut would come at 145.
Of course, there will be more scratched prior to then however.
I still estimate Back On The Lash (#60 at last Forfeit Stage) should get a run with GNOR140 even with a 2lb drop in his mark announced today.
Updated handicap marks for British runners:
Corach Rambler 156 (puts him officially 10lbs well in)
Sam Brown 156 (3lbs wrong)
Cloudy Glen 142 (3lbs wrong)
The Big Breakaway 149 (2lbs wrong)
Mister Coffey 143 (2lbs wrong)
Back On The Lash 138 (2lbs wrong)
Already known:
Our Power 147 (6lbs well-in)
Mr Incredible +3 (147) - GNOR145
Battleoverdoyen -2 (138) - GNOR145
A Wave of The Sea -1 (144) - GNOR147
Franco De Port -1 (156) - GNOR158
Back on the lash
a wave of the sea
Battleoverdoyen
Death Duty
Will nudge the wife and mother in law towards the more fancied ones when I 'suggest' maybe having a bet on the actual day of the race
I'd better have a quick squint again further down the weights, though assuming Any Second Now doesn't get injured before decs, anything below Back On The Lash will be 2lbs+ out of the handicap.
I know you are not convinced by Longhouse Poet but it could get its required ground. That is a long run in at Aintree though as plenty of horses have discovered.
Absolutely, slower ground than last year would really help the Poet.
Got a lot going for him pedigree-wise - including sharing sire with Noble Yeats and Damsire (Moscow Society) with Seabass.
I definitely see him in contention for a long way and Martin Brassil knows him better than anyone. Maybe tactics and ground will make the crucial difference this time.
Best of luck.
I bailed (bet365) when I saw he was lame for that Down Royal race but could easily have hung on and paid the same price.
I hope your picks more than make up for it on the day.
Cheers
12 more to come out above Back On The Lash by 13 April for him to get a run.
I'd expect some more to come out, in addition to those rumoured.
The there's the Irish GN on Easter Monday 9 April, which might take some out of Aintree consideration, especially as per ground preferences.
Aintree Confirmation Stage that same day, 9 April, before Declarations on Thursday 13 April.
But no Reserves this year so he has to make the top 40 by 13th April.
GN entries also entered for Topham the previous day:
Ashtown Lad - Skelton said he didn't get home when 5th in the Scot Nat (patently clear) so Topham logical
Battleoverdoyen - was switched from GN to Topham last year - anything's possible but he got outpaced then and the talk from Elliott has been to roll the dice in the big one
Escaria Ten - Elliott's said he didn't get the trip last GN (possibly a tad harsh given he'd had an injury-delayed campaign) but would be logical to run him over the shorter trip
Fantasikas - unlikely to make cut in GN
Francky Du Berlais - 4th last Topham and didn't get home in the 30f XC so would be nuts not to run him over the 21f
Gevrey - even if makes GN cut will be a mile out of the handicap so nuts not to run him in Friday's race
Gin On Lime - unexposed >24f save for UR in XC so could go either way - owner had to scratch Pencilfulloflead so might sway opting for the biggie
So too Pencilfulloflead.
Royale Pagaille
Carefully Selected
Gaillard Du Mesnil
Lifetime Ambition
Longhouse Poet
Coko Beach
Darasso
Diol Ker
Ain't That A Shame
Lord Lariat
Velvet Elvis
A Wave of The Sea
Gabbys Cross
Dunboyne
Punitive
Defi Bleu
Gevrey
Milan Native
Capt Kangaroo
Fakiera
Darrens Hope
In other words, notably, Mr Incredible is now definitely targeted at Aintree.
Galvin too, as we already knew.
Mr Incredible 150 - 5lbs well in
Delta Work 160 - 1lb well in
Galvin 160 - 6lbs wrong
Seems like both Timeform and the Racing Post (who originally gave Delta Work an RPR168 but now upped to 169) view the quality of the Festival XC higher than the handicapper.
Makes little to no difference to my model’s ratings. Delta Work, Mr Incredible and The Big Breakaway remain the 3 top-rated on any ground.
Of course it's not irrelevant that horses have run well since their GN weights were set but the short-price handicap “good things” that have flopped in a GN are legion - in recent years, 8/1 Rocky Creek was 9lbs well-in in 2015 (17th 100L), 10/1 Definitly Red was 10lbs well-in in 2017 (PU) and 11/2 fav Cloth Cap a whopping 14lbs in 2021 (PU).
Family Fortunes
While far from an infallible guide, down the years there are many GN debutants that have made the frame (some going on to do so again) for whom a clue lay in genealogy - specifically (and importantly for the stamina gene in horse breeding) a connection via the dam-line within 5 Generations (or sometimes even more distantly; within 9 Gens) with a previous GN winner or frame-maker or other notable stayer. For example:
2012:
Cappa Bleu 4th - closely related via his maternal Great-Grandmother (3rd Dam), who was Mother (Dam) of the top Irish stayer Cahervillahow (carried 11-12 when SHd 2nd in 1991 Irish GN and of the memorable silks - pink with red hearts)
2013:
Teaforthree 3rd - [more distantly] Mely Moss (close 2nd 2000 GN)
Rare Bob 5th (not debutant but BD prior run) - Bindaree (won 2002 GN)
2014:
Double Seven 3rd - Cappa Bleu
Alvarado 4th - 1/2 brother to Character Building (close 2nd 4m NH Cup) & [dist] Miinnehoma (won 1994 GN)
2016:
The Last Samuri 2nd - [dist] Many Clouds (won 2015 GN)
Gilgamboa 4th - [dist] Lastofthebrownies (4th 1989 GN & 5th 1990 GN)
2018:
Pleasant Company 2nd (not a debutant but unlucky in prior run) - Comply Or Die (won 2008 GN)
2019:
Walk In The Mill 4th - [dist] Cappa Bleu & Double Seven
2021:
Balko Des Flos 2nd - [dist] Garrison Savannah (2nd 1991 GN) and Carvills Hill (won 1991 Welsh GN with 11-12)
Any Second Now 3rd - Gilgamboa
Again, it is not an infallible guide but among this year's GN debutants (likely to make the cut) with family connections within 5 Generations of possible note are:
- Le Milos (4th Dam) - Cogry (close 2nd Scot Nat and unlucky close 3rd in Midlands National with 11-00)
- The Big Breakaway (2nd Dam) - Rathvinden (close 3rd 2019 GN)
- Corach Rambler (4th Dam) - Any Second Now
- Dunboyne (3rd Dam) - Ms Parfois (close 2nd Midlands National with 11-04 and close 2nd 4m NH Cup)
And more distant (6~9th Gen) connections:And, though this too is far from infallible (obviously!), these are the stallions represented by progeny this year (and likely to make the cut) whose offspring have 20%+ frame-making rate in chases over 4m+ in 10+ runs:
With multiple winners:
Gold Well (30 runs, 3 different winners, 5 wins [Scot Nat - Win My Wings], 6 places = 36.7% frame-making) - Galvin
Cloudings (29 runs, 4 different winners, 4 wins [GN - Many Clouds], 5 places= 31%) - Cloudy Glen
Yeats (19 runs, 3 different winners, 3 wins [GN - Noble Yeats], 2 places = 26.3%) - Noble Yeats, Longhouse Poet, Dunboyne
Oscar (46 runs, 3 different winners, 3 wins [GN - Minella Times], 8 places = 23.9%) - Any Second Now
Others with >20% frame-making or multiple winners:
Malinas (11 runs, 1 winner, 2 wins [Scot Nat - Mighty Thunder], 2 places = 33.4%) - Back On The Lash
Stowaway (16 runs, 1 win [0 Class 1], 4 places = 31.3%) - Fury Road
Mahler (19 runs, 1 win [0 Class 1], 4 places = 26.3%) - The Big Dog, Chris's Dream
Network (13 runs, 0 wins, 3 places = 23.1%) - Delta Work, Enjoy D'Allen
Westerner (32, 2 winners, 2 wins [Mid Nat - Truckers Lodge], 4 places = 18.8%) - Mr Incredible
And those with small-samples but 1+ winner:
Black Sam Bellamy (7, 3 different winners, 4 wins [0 Class 1), 1 place = 71.4%) - Sam Brown
Scorpion (3, 1 [Mid Nat - Major Dundee], 1 = 66.7%) - Rapper
Shirocco (5, 1 [4m Novice NH Cup - Minella Rocco], 0 places = 20%) - Le Milos, Velvet Elvis, Eva's Oskar, Fortescue
And those whose offspring have <10% frame-making rate and no wins from 10+ runs at 4m+:
Martaline (11, 0, 0) - Diol Ker, Vanillier
Kapgarde (11, 0, 1) - Lifetime Ambition
Saint Des Saints (11, 0, 1) - Gaillard Du Mesnil, Francky Du Berlais (interesting how he went really well in the XC but was out of gas around 29f - just as Burrows Saint was when 4th in the 2021 GN)
Cilaos Emery didn't manage the first 4 at Kelso yesterday and so joins Glamorgan Duke and Ga Law as failing to qualify to run in the GN.
With others known to be scratched ahead of Tuesday's 2nd Forfeit Stage, it seems like we're currently down to 64 remaining.
By my reckoning, to make the cut, Back On The Lash needs another 12 to come out by Declarations on 13 April.
Above him, 14 have entries for the Irish GN and 5 others for the Topham.
Very sad.
As we all know, the changes to the fences post-2012 have had a dramatic effect on the nature of the test that is the Aintree Grand National.
It's changed from being a test of extreme stamina and jumping prowess to one of extreme stamina at high cruising speed.
That's also had a dramatic effect on the profile of horses that tend to run well in a modern Grand National, illustrated by 2 strong stats.
1. AGE
In 24 GNs from 1988~2012, only 2 8 year olds won it. The average age of all winners was 10 and 8 of the 24 winners were 11 or 12.
2013 and 2014 were transitional years, with riders under orders to drop the early pace to minimise the risk of fatalities. Thus famously, for the first time in history, all 40 runners cleared Bechers Brook (6th fence) in 2013. Times were 6~8 secs slow of std on officially "Good to Soft" and, once again, both winners were 11 year olds.
Still on GS but run in a time 7 secs fast of standard, 2015 was the first of the truly-run "modern GNs" and it saw the first 8 year old winner (Many Clouds) since 2002. Given the relative outperformance by younger runners ever since, it was no shock to anyone observing this trend to see the first 7 yo winner for 82 years last year.
In total, stats for the 7 GNs from 2015 confirm a marked outperformance by 8 year olds with 7 and 9 year-olds performing as per representation. Indeed all 7 winners were 7~9 yo:
7yo - 4.7% of runners contributed 1 winner (7.7% of the 7 winners and 6 near-missers <5L) and 5.7% of frame-makers
8yo - 19.9% = 4 winners & 1 near-misser (38.5%) and 34.3% of frame-makers
9yo - 28.6% = 2 winners & 2 n-m (30.8%) and 25.7% of frame-makers
10yo - 22.8% = 0 winner & 2 n-m (15.4%) and 17.1% of frame-makers
11yo - 13.8% = 0 winner & 1 n-m (7.7%) and 11.4% of frame-makers
12yo+ - 9.8% = 0 winners or n-m and 5.7% of frame-makers
Also, all 12 of those aged 10+ to make the frame were either Grade 1 winners over fences at 3m+ that had come down by >14lbs in the handicap (Balko Des Flos and Santini) or had won at 28f+ or made the frame or run well without luck in a prior GN.
So all is not lost for Any Second Now, Delta Work, The Big Dog, (possibly) Cloudy Glen or Battleoverdoyen but not a promising stat for:
2. HURDLING ABILITY
They may be famously tall and/or deep but the spruce fences are unlike conventional steeplechase fences and to be able to jump them and travel at the high cruising speed of a modern GN, there's a strong statistical correlation with having shown a reasonable ability over hurdles.
Since 2013, all 9 winners, indeed all 45 that finished 1st~5th that had previously run at least 3 times over hurdles (only Walk In The Mill hadn't run in 3 hurdles but he already had a Becher Chase win on his CV) had achieved a hurdles RPR of >125. In fact, all winners and runners-up and 91% of all frame-makers had notched 130+.
Those still entered for the 2023 GN (and likely to make the cut) that have failed to notch >125 in 3+ hurdle races:
All of this said, there should be no such thing as a single elimination stat - all stats are capable of being broken.
But these 2 are among the Golden Stat-Tests that very few, if any, GN frame-makers from 2013~22 have failed.
As of now, 62 left and Back On The Lash is #50.
Still 19 horses above him with entries for either Irish GN or Topham.
Two more damside "Pedigree-Plus" stats, reflecting the growing trend in NH pedigrees and those successful in a modern GN for flat speed over a trip.
Independently, each shows a statistically meaningful correlation but putting them together produces a remarkable result.
Of the 356 runners in the 9 GNs 2013~22:
1. 78 of them (21.9%) had a Damsire that had offspring (as sire or damsire) that had won a G1 at 10f+ on the flat AND a 2nd or 3rd Damsire that had either done likewise or had Damsired a GN 1st~4th.
That 21.9% contributed 7 of the 9 winners (77.8%) and another 3 of the 7 finishing <5L of them (62.5% of winners and near-missers). Indeed it accounted for 42.2% of all 1st~5th in those GNs. In other words, 1 in 4 of runners ticking this box made the frame (compared to a random distribution of 1 in 8)
Of this year's entries down to #60 at the weights, the following ticked this box:
2. 41 of the 356 GN runners 2013~22 (11.5%) had the genetically-electric combo on the damside of Wild Risk and Bold Ruler.
That 11.5% contributed 5 of the 9 winners (55.6%) and another 3 near-missers (50% of winners and near-missers). It accounted for 28.9% of all 1st~5th. Thus, 1 in 3 of them made the frame (again compared to 1 in 8, if outcomes were random).
Of this year's remaining entries down to #60 at the weights, the following ticked this box:
Combination. If we put the 2 stats together, just 13 of the 356 runners (only 9 different horses) 2013~22 ticked both boxes. They were:
2013: Tatenen - Fell at 12th fence
2016: Rule The World - Won
2017: One For Arthur - Won
2018: Tiger Roll - Won
2019: Tiger Roll - Won / Magic of Light - 2nd (2.75L) / One For Arthur - 6th / Rock The Kasbah - BD
2021: Minella Times - Won / Magic Of Light - UR 4th fence
2022: Fiddlerontheroof 5th / Minella Times - BD / Coko Beach - 8th
So, 13 runs produced 5 winners and 3 places. 5 of the 9 different horses ticking both boxes were a winner or near-misser.
Of this year's entries 3 tick both boxes:
In a nutshell, DUNBOYNE (66/1 or 40/1 NRNB) has the strongest GN-starred pedigree of any potential runner this year.
Will he get 34f? His family connection via 3rd Dam to the dour stayer Ms Parfois suggests yes.
The biggest issue for him is ground since, like his relative, he really needs it soft or at least slowish GS. FWIW, we're due a Soft ground GN and the forecast is for rain for the rest of the week on Merseyside, though drier with rain still about up to 15 April.
Will he run? Disconcertingly, Elliott speaks of running as many as possible in the Irish GN, 5 days prior to Aintree, with Dunboyne mentioned as one of them. Any bet on him right now must be NRNB and accompanied by a regular rain dance.
Scratched:
HEWICK
CONFLATED
FRANCO DE PORT
CHRIS'S DREAM
CILAOS EMERY
LORD LARIAT
ASHTOWN LAD
RAPPER
GLAMORGAN DUKE
PENCILFULLOFLEAD
HAPPYGOLUCKY
GA LAW
REMASTERED
FARCLAS
THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE
DEATH DUTY
So 57 remain and now guaranteed a run are all those on GNOR142, carrying 10-01 if Any Second Now is declared on 13 April.
Our Power is now #41
Dunboyne #42
Back On The Lash #45
16 remaining above Back On The Lash have entries for either Irish GN or Topham.
This week any change i win from bets will be going to Dunboyne
They're a good hedge for one another, ground-wise. There is a real chance IMO of a long-shot stunner this year but we need to dodge those slings and arrows.
I certainly wouldn't want to omit Delta Work from a betting slip - as near to a banker to make the frame if he avoids misfortune as one's likely to see in a GN IMO.
Fingers crossed.