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Grand National 2023

If you had one eye on the 3.00 at Warwick on Saturday and if you’re meteorologically-gifted and are sure it will be soft ground at Aintree on 15 April, you probably saw the winner of the 2023 Grand National take the Warwick National, also won by One For Arthur in his 2017 GN winning season.
IWILLDOIT (cut to 20/1 for the big one), returning from more than a year off the track since winning the Welsh GN, outstayed all under 11-10 on extremely testing ground over the 29f and stiff jumps of Warwick. 
He has a pedigree absolutely spot on for a modern GN, being materially inbred to Wild Risk (via both dam and sire’s dam) and, with a safe prep over fences somewhere beforehand to qualify and shake the "bounce" risk, the stats will give him a winner’s rating (within reason) regardless of the handicapper’s penalty tomorrow (he ran off 147 on Sat so certain to make the GN cut).
BUT, despite his trainer's claim of versatility, his profile strongly suggests that he, like so many other terrific stayers before him, will likely flounder at Aintree without meaningful cut, i.e. “Soft” as the first word in the going description.
Too early and too short to put money down now, for sure.
More anon, naturally.

PS Cheers Mods, for correcting wrong category

Comments

  • It’s the most, wonderful time,of the year 
  • Thank god, a thread worth a read.
  • the Winter/early Spring C L classic is back .. cheers Peanuts
  • OI OI!
  • edited January 16
    The first shoots of spring, nights beginning to draw out, and Sir Peanuts Molloy starting what is annually the most looked forward to thread on CL.

    Life is good :)
  • Great to get this started @PeanutsMolloy.

    Interesting that Iwilldoit needs to run in another chase by 19th February to qualify. After such a long absence and then a near 4m slog, you'd have to wonder whether getting him back on track in basically one month's time maximum, even for a 2.5 mile canter is going to (a) be what they're prepared to do with his wellbeing in mind and (b) scupper his National prospects by not being able to do a prep run later. Though he is now 10 so maybe it's go for broke time.

    Obviously the rules are there for good reason but having won a Welsh National, Classic and WN Trial in 5 starts, he would probably be the most qualified non-qualifier ever if he didn't make it!
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  • edited February 7
    Many were fearing this and entries revealed today confirm only 85 entered for the big one on 15 April - down from 107 last year.
    Of which Irish-trained contribute 54 (64%) and Elliott alone 21 (25%).
    10 owned by Gigginstown, 8 by JP.
    All of the front 6 from last year bar Santini return and, with Noble Yeats potentially running as topweight off 167 (or thereabouts) and many of the usual trials seemingly failing to deliver serious contenders, we could see the rarity of one of those placed horses taking full advantage of a much lighter relative and absolute weight.
    However, there is at least one GN debutant, in addition to Iwilldoit, flashing away very brightly on my radar screen.
    More shortly.

    https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/32/aintree/2023-04-15/831493/

    PS Weights to be unveiled in a fortnight (21 Feb), this year unusually after the Grand National Trial at Haydock (18 Feb).
    PPS 4 week gap between Cheltenham and the GN

  • I always enjoy this thread. It’s a reminder that spring is on its way. 
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