What is needed for this race is about 28 horses less and lower fences and maybe max 4 miles long I hate watching this race.
What you have done is make 3 practical suggestions, plus a valid personal perspective. All very reasonable, so in that context it is not reasonable for you to be abused for writing what you have written.
I think they said on the wireless that three horses died in the Grand National yesterday, I thought it was one.
When looking at the online newspaper reports the Mail on Sunday suggests the disruption was caused by vegans. How would they know?
One horse died in the Grand National race but three died over the three day meeting.
What is needed for this race is about 28 horses less and lower fences and maybe max 4 miles long I hate watching this race.
What you have done is make 3 practical suggestions, plus a valid personal perspective. All very reasonable, so in that context it is not reasonable for you to be abused for writing what you have written.
I think they said on the wireless that three horses died in the Grand National yesterday, I thought it was one.
When looking at the online newspaper reports the Mail on Sunday suggests the disruption was caused by vegans. How would they know?
“Practical suggestions”. That’s where your are hugely wrong. A four mile race with low fences and 12 horses is not the grand national. Do you think a group called “animal rising” are meat eaters? Let’s hope they get criminal records and long sentences.
What is needed for this race is about 28 horses less and lower fences and maybe max 4 miles long I hate watching this race.
Fences have been lowered over the years. The irony is that if you lower than too much you might actually get more deaths - hurdles are smaller and there are at least as many, if not more, fatalities in those races because of the increased pace that those obstacles are attacked at.
What is needed for this race is about 28 horses less and lower fences and maybe max 4 miles long I hate watching this race.
What you have done is make 3 practical suggestions, plus a valid personal perspective. All very reasonable, so in that context it is not reasonable for you to be abused for writing what you have written.
I think they said on the wireless that three horses died in the Grand National yesterday, I thought it was one.
When looking at the online newspaper reports the Mail on Sunday suggests the disruption was caused by vegans. How would they know?
“Practical suggestions”. That’s where your are hugely wrong. A four mile race with low fences and 12 horses is not the grand national. Do you think a group called “animal rising” are meat eaters? Let’s hope they get criminal records and long sentences.
I don’t know if they eat meat or not. There is no evidence that all the protesters were interviewed.
What is needed for this race is about 28 horses less and lower fences and maybe max 4 miles long I hate watching this race.
What you have done is make 3 practical suggestions, plus a valid personal perspective. All very reasonable, so in that context it is not reasonable for you to be abused for writing what you have written.
I think they said on the wireless that three horses died in the Grand National yesterday, I thought it was one.
When looking at the online newspaper reports the Mail on Sunday suggests the disruption was caused by vegans. How would they know?
The M. O. S are claiming that they infiltrated the animal rights group and tipped off the police which resulted in 118 arrests.
I'll admit I'm not much of a horse racing fan (as in I don't watch it much/I'm not that interested, rather than a protestor type), but I view it the same way as high tackles in football/rugby, shin pads, helmets in cricket, head support/halo etc in F1, small, sensible steps you take that might mean the sport isn't quite as exciting as when it was dangerous, but it's much safer.
Read earlier that the death toll is at 1.3% over the GN weekend these days, compared with 3.3% 20 years ago because of the changes made in 2012. And it's still a thrilling race etc.
I'd not say 12 runners etc as above, but would it really be that much worse for having say 30 riders, being under 4 miles, having smaller & wider fences, whips only for emergencies etc?
Small changes all help, and it's still the Grand National, few people would be turning off because there's 10 less horses than there used to be etc.
What is needed for this race is about 28 horses less and lower fences and maybe max 4 miles long I hate watching this race.
What you have done is make 3 practical suggestions, plus a valid personal perspective. All very reasonable, so in that context it is not reasonable for you to be abused for writing what you have written.
I think they said on the wireless that three horses died in the Grand National yesterday, I thought it was one.
When looking at the online newspaper reports the Mail on Sunday suggests the disruption was caused by vegans. How would they know?
One horse died in the Grand National race but three died over the three day meeting.
@PeanutsMolloy any obvious first thoughts on what bucked the model yesterday?
Many thanks for re-instating the thread @AFKABartram I completely understand why you closed it yesterday evening.
And thanks for asking the question.
Having now had a chance to re-watch the whole of it, as
regards the model’s top selections I don’t believe it failed anywhere near as
much as it appeared to from the plain result.
You have a team for a reason – because horses don’t always run
to their best and, especially, because of the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune.
It’s rare but sometimes, as yesterday, an off day (and there was certainly additional reason for an off day) and one form of shit or
another takes out the whole lot of them.
What rubbed a large amount of salt into the wound is that those
slings and arrows were largely fucking FRIENDLY FIRE!!!!
Model’s Top 4 Picks on the Ground – 3 met with misfortune:
1.
The Big Breakaway – got heavily side-swiped
by Capodanno but it was caused by DELTA WORK (!!) jumping left into them
at the 2nd fence. TBB jumped it perfectly cleanly but had no chance to
stay upright and Fell.
2.
Delta Work – despite jumping left at some
was going nicely in midfield, 8~10L off leader & better positioned than
last year approaching 21st fence, when he jumped left again and collided
in mid-air with BACK ON THE LASH (!!), causing Delta to sprawl on
landing and UR
3.
Back On The Lash – also nicely positioned
and looking good, started to drop away after that incident and PU 5 fences
later
4.
Mr Incredible – going nicely round the inner, in 8th jumping
the Canal Turn. Saddle slips (possibly a result of brushing through the prior fence)
and jockey slides off half way to next fence
Other Picks
5.
Dunboyne – a soft ground horse, is a soft
ground horse, is a soft ground horse. It was simply too quick for him and, in
truth, he didn’t look up for it – always behind
6.
Gaillard Du Mesnil – 3rd, in
line with the model’s expectations
7.
Velvet Elvis – dropped out from midfield quickly
after the water jump (16th) and PU (no explanation)
8.
A Wave Of The Sea – according to the
jockey “nearly got brought down at the 2nd and never travelled after”
(did well to finish 9th). In fact, the horse that nearly brought him
down was Corach Rambler – who could have fallen if AWOTS hadn’t been there
9.
Recite A Prayer – (to make top 10) – in lead
at first, jumped it beautifully and got side-swiped by the falling Cloudy Glen causing
him to UR.
Just about summed up one fucking awful day for CAFC, NH Racing
& The Grand National.
As for missing the winner and potentially others.
Fair play to Corach Rambler, a very worthy winner. No
complaints and the model simply failed by screening him out as an apparent non-stayer. It
was the same story for 2nd place Vanillier (again, no complaints). But boy did they
stay.
The good news from the model’s perspective is that both are
2nd season chasers, putting them in the sweet spot which has emerged
as the most prolific contributor of winners since 2013. It’s disappointing the screen test failed but
not exactly a surprise that it’s in this area that the model clearly remains
work in progress.
Both were exposed at 26f+ with apparent fails at 29~30f and
so that particular “Golden” test clearly needs tweaking, as do a couple of
others.
Other than 1st and 2nd, with Gaillard Du Mesnil 3rd,
I’m not going to pay too much attention to trying to reconcile Noble Yeats (considered
by the model as a “Big Run, No Cigar” potential), The Big Dog or Born By The
Sea.
That’s because I think the distances are false, with just 10L
covering the first 6 home.
No GN for at least 35 years (possibly longer because Racing
Post data doesn’t go back further) has ever had such a small distance covering
1st~6th. And I simply don’t believe that 10L is a true
reflection of the difference between a winner that was 10lbs well-in and a
horse in 6th that was 6lbs O/H.
Just as Tiger Roll had in 2018, Corach plainly idled from
approaching the Elbow to the line and IMHO was good for another 10L margin.
While I don’t think for a moment that they would have robbed him of victory,
had Delta Work or Mr Incredible not met with misfortune, I do believe they
would probably have been in the mix at the Elbow and not only pushed 4th
and 5th out of the frame but made the winning distances more
realistic.
So, as always, there’s work to do but, I’m confident that I
will be able to tweak the model without too much disruption to reconcile both Corach
Rambler and Vanillier.
As ever, the proof of the pudding will be in the eating.
I just hope we'll have the chance to see this great race again, with reasonable changes perhaps but without emasculation.
Thank you Peanuts for pointing out a number of situations I was not aware of. As for changes to the race, apart from reducing the number of runners which I am not in favour of, I don't think much can be done. They have changed the fences, improved the qualification to run and the days of horses drowning in the canal are long gone.
Thank you Peanuts for pointing out a number of situations I was not aware of. As for changes to the race, apart from reducing the number of runners which I am not in favour of, I don't think much can be done. They have changed the fences, improved the qualification to run and the days of horses drowning in the canal are long gone.
I totally agree. What made this race more chaotic than others since 2013? Only 1 thing was different to the preceding 9. Dozens of fuckwits invading the course, causing meaningful delay on a hottish afternoon for finely-tuned thoroughbreds ready to race and creating a frenetic atmosphere around the course. Horses pick up on our emotions, as do dogs. “Horses are truly emotional sponges, and they react strongly and very rapidly to our human emotions,” - Léa Lansade, PhD, of the French Horse and Riding Institute and the National Institute for Agricultural Research’s behaviour science department.
Sandy Thomson was precisely right.
I speak as a former owner of NH steeplechasers with Jenny Pitman, Mark Pitman, Ian Williams and Charlie Longsdon. I watched one of my horses die when fatally injured in a chase at Cheltenham and I watched Mark Pitman sit in his car weeping afterwards, as was I. I know the heart-ache first-hand and I've seen the love and care lavished upon these majestic animals who, sadly, are just as liable to be fatally injured in a paddock accident or on the gallops, doing what they love doing - running and jumping.
So, the next person that chooses to post here and state that I "enjoy innocent animals breaking their necks in the name of sport" can simply FUCK OFF.
These animal activists are completely bonkers - if we ban racing, there will be no thoroughbred horses that’s 20,000 less horses a year, if we ban meat eating there is no need for pigs, sheep and cattle.
There are quite a few who don’t want to ban flat racing, only jump racing.
The people who want to ban all horse racing are the same people who want to ban greyhound racing. But in both horse racing and greyhound racing the animals who don’t enjoy it don’t do it, because they don’t run very fast.
Interesting comments from Sandy Thomson, trainer of Hill Sixteen. Blames the delay to the race for the sad demise of his horse due to him becoming “over-hyper and not taking off at the first fence”.
I think he’s in a better position to comment than some posters on a football forum who know bugger all about a topic, but assume expert status by jumping on the latest bandwagon to hit town.
I would say the fence itself, and forcing a horse to jump over it, led to its demise.
But then again I don't make a living exclusively from the sport so who am I to know.
And what led to that. These are highly trained animals of habit. If something disrupts their process then inevitably things can happen. That’s not the definite reason but it can’t help can it. Of course that raises the question should they have run but hindsight is a wonderful thing.
Sadly, I suspect the Grand National won’t exist in anything like it’s current form in twenty years or so.
Can see an argument for reducing the field. Some horses just seem to get in the way.
But it is a great spectacle with 40+. I watched the race with Mrs JS, who likes a horse race, but she was getting quite upset at the number of fallers, and the general mayhem. I can see both sides of the argument, just as I could when they banned the Waterloo Cup.
Thanks @PeanutsMolloy for all your input and post race analysis. I think often in life where things don’t pan out as well as expected the opportunities to learn are greater. It’s also difficult to not go too far and throw the baby out with the bath water. It seemed watching it live on tv that the delays caused at the start were unsettling for a number of horses and indeed the whole atmosphere around the track.
The race itself did for me, a novice punter seem to be much more chaotic and frantic than previous races I have seen. In particular with the number of horses taking others out and the loose horses running with the race. Terribly sad about the horse that died and hopefully in the fullness of time the incident can be looked into impartially to learn lessons for the future. But the fact it happened so early in the event does raise questions as to whether there is a direct correlation to the incident and the stress caused by the race delay.
Will be very keen to hear any further thoughts and how your model shapes for next year. And it might just be the whole team all caught bad luck and the model remains the same. We shall see. But thank you for sharing.
In terms of the chaos, I think there is also an element that every year the camera work gets more and more advanced. Footage is being shown closer and from many more angles, bringing the viewer into the race more and more.
Clearly not the overriding factor, but I suspect this from a viewer perspective may have highlighted it more, as was the fact so many horses that unseated riders remained loose runners.
I don't remember so many 'loose horses' ever and especially not leading and interfering over so much of lap 1. If that's going to happen again it almost tempts towards a slowish starter, strong finisher.
@PeanutsMolloy do you think the jockey is worth some model points. I don't know enough about the horses to say but some jockeys seems to get consistently good rides out of less good horses, or particular types of horse anyway. As far as I know the jockey is not known for each horse super early on, like when the first bets may be placed, but as a later refinement is it important?
I don't remember so many 'loose horses' ever and especially not leading and interfering over so much of lap 1. If that's going to happen again it almost tempts towards a slowish starter, strong finisher.
@PeanutsMolloy do you think the jockey is worth some model points. I don't know enough about the horses to say but some jockeys seems to get consistently good rides out of less good horses, or particular types of horse anyway. As far as I know the jockey is not known for each horse super early on, like when the first bets may be placed, but as a later refinement is it important?
Take your point about the loose horses and, indeed, Gaillard Du Mesnil and Noble Yeats came from a mile back to make the frame. But generally it’s difficult to come from off the pace in a GN and traffic can be worse for runners in midfield and at the rear. just depends how a race pans out and whether front runners have gone too fast and fade (like Mister Coffey) so the pace drops or if they’ve judged it well and keep going.
Examples of all sorts of race characteristics over the years.
I understand the second point and you’d think jockeys would matter - and I’m not saying they don’t - but modelling it is impossible.
It’s not as simple as wanting “the best” jockey aboard.
This is what I posted on Friday:
Records in the GN of some of the Jockeys on fancied runners tomorrow:
Paul Townend (Gaillard Du Mesnil) - 11 rides: 0UFP0PPPPUU Aidan Coleman (The Big Dog) - 14 rides: 0FFFPUUF00PP2P Sean Bowen (Noble Yeats) - 7 rides: 000PPP0 Sam Twiston-Davies (Our Power) - 12 rides: 5P7PU0PFBPR0
4 top jocks, 44 rides: wins 0, places 2
Flip side of the coin, also riding tomorrow, Derek Fox and Ryan Mania both won it on their GN debuts.
Winners on debut and top jocks struggling to place are reasons there's no "jockey factor" in my model. She gave him a great ride but it didn't need Rachel aboard Minella Times for him to win IMHO. It's true that you can look at the rider for some soft URs (I still curse under my breath at the memory of Ben Poste pathetically coming off Minellacelebration when going really well in 2021) but it's impossible to "model". And on the flip side, you have a relatively unheralded jock like Robbie Dunne performing a miracle to keep aboard Vics Canvas at 1st Bechers and nursing him back to lead after the last. Win some, lose some.
Saturday gave Derek Fox (22nd in list of winners this season among British jump jockeys) his 2nd win in just 4 GNs.
And brought Paul Townend (1st among Irish jump jockies this season) his first GN place in 12 rides.
Thanks @PeanutsMolloy for all your input and post race analysis. I think often in life where things don’t pan out as well as expected the opportunities to learn are greater. It’s also difficult to not go too far and throw the baby out with the bath water. It seemed watching it live on tv that the delays caused at the start were unsettling for a number of horses and indeed the whole atmosphere around the track.
The race itself did for me, a novice punter seem to be much more chaotic and frantic than previous races I have seen. In particular with the number of horses taking others out and the loose horses running with the race. Terribly sad about the horse that died and hopefully in the fullness of time the incident can be looked into impartially to learn lessons for the future. But the fact it happened so early in the event does raise questions as to whether there is a direct correlation to the incident and the stress caused by the race delay.
Will be very keen to hear any further thoughts and how your model shapes for next year. And it might just be the whole team all caught bad luck and the model remains the same. We shall see. But thank you for sharing.
Many thanks @“Gary Poole” I really appreciate (and agree with) all your comments. You’re spot on in that, in tweaking the model, it’s important not to throw the baby out with the bath water. The model doesn’t aim to be a crystal ball but rather it says, these horses are most likely to go well because their profiles fit best with prior winners/near-missers. But it’s a 40 runner horse race over 4.25 miles and no trends-model can ever get it perfectly “right”. Every year there are lessons to be drawn but I firmly believe, for the reasons I gave, that this year the performances of Corach Rambler and Vanillier should be reconciled but no others. And other than once again being shown that a soft-ground horse simply can’t go the pace of a modern GN, I don’t think any of the runners it picked out before the race need “relegating”. Shit happens. Will happily post any further thoughts. Cheers.
Some top riders have never been placed in the GN. Paul Moloney had a remarkable record of being placed in the first four in seven consecutive Nationals until a fall in 2016. I should add that he never really went for it imo as he seemed to ride just to get round. However its still an unbelievable record.
Thank you Peanuts for pointing out a number of situations I was not aware of. As for changes to the race, apart from reducing the number of runners which I am not in favour of, I don't think much can be done. They have changed the fences, improved the qualification to run and the days of horses drowning in the canal are long gone.
I totally agree. What made this race more chaotic than others since 2013? Only 1 thing was different to the preceding 9. Dozens of fuckwits invading the course, causing meaningful delay on a hottish afternoon for finely-tuned thoroughbreds ready to race and creating a frenetic atmosphere around the course. Horses pick up on our emotions, as do dogs. “Horses are truly emotional sponges, and they react strongly and very rapidly to our human emotions,” - Léa Lansade, PhD, of the French Horse and Riding Institute and the National Institute for Agricultural Research’s behaviour science department.
Sandy Thomson was precisely right.
I speak as a former owner of NH steeplechasers with Jenny Pitman, Mark Pitman, Ian Williams and Charlie Longsdon. I watched one of my horses die when fatally injured in a chase at Cheltenham and I watched Mark Pitman sit in his car weeping afterwards, as was I. I know the heart-ache first-hand and I've seen the love and care lavished upon these majestic animals who, sadly, are just as liable to be fatally injured in a paddock accident or on the gallops, doing what they love doing - running and jumping.
So, the next person that chooses to post here and state that I "enjoy innocent animals breaking their necks in the name of sport" can simply FUCK OFF.
I had no idea when I posted my comment that you were connected to the sport and professionally involved,reading your post has made me feel somewhat embarrased,I wish to apologise for my comment,reading it back it was a horrible thing to say,and as you so rightly say,its best if I fuck off from this discussion and leave it to those that are in better positions than me to give their opinions.
Thank you Peanuts for pointing out a number of situations I was not aware of. As for changes to the race, apart from reducing the number of runners which I am not in favour of, I don't think much can be done. They have changed the fences, improved the qualification to run and the days of horses drowning in the canal are long gone.
I totally agree. What made this race more chaotic than others since 2013? Only 1 thing was different to the preceding 9. Dozens of fuckwits invading the course, causing meaningful delay on a hottish afternoon for finely-tuned thoroughbreds ready to race and creating a frenetic atmosphere around the course. Horses pick up on our emotions, as do dogs. “Horses are truly emotional sponges, and they react strongly and very rapidly to our human emotions,” - Léa Lansade, PhD, of the French Horse and Riding Institute and the National Institute for Agricultural Research’s behaviour science department.
Sandy Thomson was precisely right.
I speak as a former owner of NH steeplechasers with Jenny Pitman, Mark Pitman, Ian Williams and Charlie Longsdon. I watched one of my horses die when fatally injured in a chase at Cheltenham and I watched Mark Pitman sit in his car weeping afterwards, as was I. I know the heart-ache first-hand and I've seen the love and care lavished upon these majestic animals who, sadly, are just as liable to be fatally injured in a paddock accident or on the gallops, doing what they love doing - running and jumping.
So, the next person that chooses to post here and state that I "enjoy innocent animals breaking their necks in the name of sport" can simply FUCK OFF.
I had no idea when I posted my comment that you were connected to the sport and professionally involved,reading your post has made me feel somewhat embarrased,I wish to apologise for my comment,reading it back it was a horrible thing to say,and as you so rightly say,its best if I fuck off from this discussion and leave it to those that are in better positions than me to give their opinions.
Comments
Read earlier that the death toll is at 1.3% over the GN weekend these days, compared with 3.3% 20 years ago because of the changes made in 2012. And it's still a thrilling race etc.
I'd not say 12 runners etc as above, but would it really be that much worse for having say 30 riders, being under 4 miles, having smaller & wider fences, whips only for emergencies etc?
Small changes all help, and it's still the Grand National, few people would be turning off because there's 10 less horses than there used to be etc.
Tongue in cheek of course. Lol
I completely understand why you closed it yesterday evening.
Having now had a chance to re-watch the whole of it, as regards the model’s top selections I don’t believe it failed anywhere near as much as it appeared to from the plain result.
You have a team for a reason – because horses don’t always run to their best and, especially, because of the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune. It’s rare but sometimes, as yesterday, an off day (and there was certainly additional reason for an off day) and one form of shit or another takes out the whole lot of them.
What rubbed a large amount of salt into the wound is that those slings and arrows were largely fucking FRIENDLY FIRE!!!!
Model’s Top 4 Picks on the Ground – 3 met with misfortune:
1. The Big Breakaway – got heavily side-swiped by Capodanno but it was caused by DELTA WORK (!!) jumping left into them at the 2nd fence. TBB jumped it perfectly cleanly but had no chance to stay upright and Fell.
2. Delta Work – despite jumping left at some was going nicely in midfield, 8~10L off leader & better positioned than last year approaching 21st fence, when he jumped left again and collided in mid-air with BACK ON THE LASH (!!), causing Delta to sprawl on landing and UR
3. Back On The Lash – also nicely positioned and looking good, started to drop away after that incident and PU 5 fences later
4. Mr Incredible – going nicely round the inner, in 8th jumping the Canal Turn. Saddle slips (possibly a result of brushing through the prior fence) and jockey slides off half way to next fence
Other Picks
5. Dunboyne – a soft ground horse, is a soft ground horse, is a soft ground horse. It was simply too quick for him and, in truth, he didn’t look up for it – always behind
6. Gaillard Du Mesnil – 3rd, in line with the model’s expectations
7. Velvet Elvis – dropped out from midfield quickly after the water jump (16th) and PU (no explanation)
8. A Wave Of The Sea – according to the jockey “nearly got brought down at the 2nd and never travelled after” (did well to finish 9th). In fact, the horse that nearly brought him down was Corach Rambler – who could have fallen if AWOTS hadn’t been there
9. Recite A Prayer – (to make top 10) – in lead at first, jumped it beautifully and got side-swiped by the falling Cloudy Glen causing him to UR.
Just about summed up one fucking awful day for CAFC, NH Racing & The Grand National.
As for missing the winner and potentially others.
Fair play to Corach Rambler, a very worthy winner. No complaints and the model simply failed by screening him out as an apparent non-stayer. It was the same story for 2nd place Vanillier (again, no complaints). But boy did they stay.
The good news from the model’s perspective is that both are 2nd season chasers, putting them in the sweet spot which has emerged as the most prolific contributor of winners since 2013. It’s disappointing the screen test failed but not exactly a surprise that it’s in this area that the model clearly remains work in progress.
Both were exposed at 26f+ with apparent fails at 29~30f and so that particular “Golden” test clearly needs tweaking, as do a couple of others.
Other than 1st and 2nd, with Gaillard Du Mesnil 3rd, I’m not going to pay too much attention to trying to reconcile Noble Yeats (considered by the model as a “Big Run, No Cigar” potential), The Big Dog or Born By The Sea.
That’s because I think the distances are false, with just 10L covering the first 6 home.
No GN for at least 35 years (possibly longer because Racing Post data doesn’t go back further) has ever had such a small distance covering 1st~6th. And I simply don’t believe that 10L is a true reflection of the difference between a winner that was 10lbs well-in and a horse in 6th that was 6lbs O/H.
Just as Tiger Roll had in 2018, Corach plainly idled from approaching the Elbow to the line and IMHO was good for another 10L margin. While I don’t think for a moment that they would have robbed him of victory, had Delta Work or Mr Incredible not met with misfortune, I do believe they would probably have been in the mix at the Elbow and not only pushed 4th and 5th out of the frame but made the winning distances more realistic.
So, as always, there’s work to do but, I’m confident that I will be able to tweak the model without too much disruption to reconcile both Corach Rambler and Vanillier.
As ever, the proof of the pudding will be in the eating.
I just hope we'll have the chance to see this great race again, with reasonable changes perhaps but without emasculation.
What made this race more chaotic than others since 2013?
Only 1 thing was different to the preceding 9.
Dozens of fuckwits invading the course, causing meaningful delay on a hottish afternoon for finely-tuned thoroughbreds ready to race and creating a frenetic atmosphere around the course.
Horses pick up on our emotions, as do dogs.
“Horses are truly emotional sponges, and they react strongly and very rapidly to our human emotions,” - Léa Lansade, PhD, of the French Horse and Riding Institute and the National Institute for Agricultural Research’s behaviour science department.
Sandy Thomson was precisely right.
I speak as a former owner of NH steeplechasers with Jenny Pitman, Mark Pitman, Ian Williams and Charlie Longsdon.
I watched one of my horses die when fatally injured in a chase at Cheltenham and I watched Mark Pitman sit in his car weeping afterwards, as was I.
I know the heart-ache first-hand and I've seen the love and care lavished upon these majestic animals who, sadly, are just as liable to be fatally injured in a paddock accident or on the gallops, doing what they love doing - running and jumping.
So, the next person that chooses to post here and state that I "enjoy innocent animals breaking their necks in the name of sport" can simply FUCK OFF.
But in both horse racing and greyhound racing the animals who don’t enjoy it don’t do it, because they don’t run very fast.
Sadly, I suspect the Grand National won’t exist in anything like it’s current form in twenty years or so.
I can see both sides of the argument, just as I could when they banned the Waterloo Cup.
Will be very keen to hear any further thoughts and how your model shapes for next year. And it might just be the whole team all caught bad luck and the model remains the same. We shall see. But thank you for sharing.
But generally it’s difficult to come from off the pace in a GN and traffic can be worse for runners in midfield and at the rear.
just depends how a race pans out and whether front runners have gone too fast and fade (like Mister Coffey) so the pace drops or if they’ve judged it well and keep going.
Examples of all sorts of race characteristics over the years.
It’s not as simple as wanting “the best” jockey aboard.
This is what I posted on Friday:
Paul Townend (Gaillard Du Mesnil) - 11 rides: 0UFP0PPPPUU
Aidan Coleman (The Big Dog) - 14 rides: 0FFFPUUF00PP2P
Sean Bowen (Noble Yeats) - 7 rides: 000PPP0
Sam Twiston-Davies (Our Power) - 12 rides: 5P7PU0PFBPR0
She gave him a great ride but it didn't need Rachel aboard Minella Times for him to win IMHO.
It's true that you can look at the rider for some soft URs (I still curse under my breath at the memory of Ben Poste pathetically coming off Minellacelebration when going really well in 2021) but it's impossible to "model". And on the flip side, you have a relatively unheralded jock like Robbie Dunne performing a miracle to keep aboard Vics Canvas at 1st Bechers and nursing him back to lead after the last.
Win some, lose some.
Saturday gave Derek Fox (22nd in list of winners this season among British jump jockeys) his 2nd win in just 4 GNs.
And brought Paul Townend (1st among Irish jump jockies this season) his first GN place in 12 rides.
I really appreciate (and agree with) all your comments.
You’re spot on in that, in tweaking the model, it’s important not to throw the baby out with the bath water.
The model doesn’t aim to be a crystal ball but rather it says, these horses are most likely to go well because their profiles fit best with prior winners/near-missers.
But it’s a 40 runner horse race over 4.25 miles and no trends-model can ever get it perfectly “right”.
Every year there are lessons to be drawn but I firmly believe, for the reasons I gave, that this year the performances of Corach Rambler and Vanillier should be reconciled but no others.
And other than once again being shown that a soft-ground horse simply can’t go the pace of a modern GN, I don’t think any of the runners it picked out before the race need “relegating”. Shit happens.
Will happily post any further thoughts.
Cheers.
However its still an unbelievable record.
Apology accepted 100%.
Cheers