Thanks Peanuts for sharing your model and the results it has come up with. I am on the following all each way with varying odds as a selection of small bets most antepost.
Delta Work, The Big Breakaway, Mr Incredible, Back on the Lash, Dunboyne, A Wave of the Sea and Velvet Elvis.
Tried to balance it in terms of potential payouts, but was tempted to put more on Dunboyne yesterday when it was raining cats and dogs and he went out to 80/1.
Just noticed that Mr Incredible will be ridden by a B.Hayes almost made me cash out 😉
Now I am aware that Mister Coffey goes against a lot of trends not least trip, Topham run and trainer's record in the National but I do have an interest in him at big prices.
Peanuts, not sure how influential these days Templegate is with the punters but he has Big Breakaway 2* out of 5*. “No big deal, 2 in Welsh before poor run at Cheltenham. Stays and jumps well but should be a bigger price in the betting”
Cheers @AFKABartram TBB may flop today, as any runner (certainly any debutant) might, but I must say I've not heard and read so much twaddle from a vast array of racing "experts" in many a year as this year. Most of them have ended up calling the GN a lottery at some point in their career because they can't get it that, even nowadays, it's rarely the best horse that wins it. But you pays ya money, you takes ya choice.
Longhouse Poet didn't stay last year (or maybe was too keen so emptied sooner) but I can't see much better value than him at 28/1 6 places or 25/1 for 7...
The trainer's obviously confident if he's ridden more conservatively but Longhouse Poet didn't get home off same GNOR last time - spent by the last fence, to my eyes. But I did back him last year because he has a GN-starred pedigree and he was in the sweet spot then as an 8yo 2nd season chaser - obviously not that now. I also didn't rate that 26f win in Down Patrick all that highly (last run) and nor seemingly did the Racing Post (RPR128 !!) so a mark of 154 (= his career best RPR) looks high to me. But he does have the pedigree for it and could be Big Run No Cigar
Sam Brown - not for me. Long in the tooth at 11, too much weight with 11-04, fails 6 of my 11 stat tests. Failed in only run 26f+ (GNT at Haydock last year) and and has no pedigree plus.
Dunboyne going for a major walk, 80/1. Ground is probably too quick but 160 Win on Betfair had to be taken with the chance that blinkers do the business. Has the stamina in his genes but has to be able to stay within reasonable range. We'll see.
2 bites of the cherry for the Captain's Stateroom.
PS Back into the earth's atmosphere at 110 now - glad I'm not the only eternal optimist.
Only race I'm interested in during the year & backed 6 horses based on @PeanutsMolloy excellent preview. Only a few pounds each way but if 1 comes in I think I'll get my money back.....although the odds I got at William Hills earlier is not going to be as good as others on here.
Comments
Thanks peanuts for a brilliant thread, as always
Gaillard Du Mesnil win
Coko Beach e/w
Diol Ker e/w
Delta Work, The Big Breakaway, Mr Incredible, Back on the Lash, Dunboyne, A Wave of the Sea and Velvet Elvis.
Tried to balance it in terms of potential payouts, but was tempted to put more on Dunboyne yesterday when it was raining cats and dogs and he went out to 80/1.
Just noticed that Mr Incredible will be ridden by a B.Hayes almost made me cash out 😉
TBB may flop today, as any runner (certainly any debutant) might, but I must say I've not heard and read so much twaddle from a vast array of racing "experts" in many a year as this year.
Most of them have ended up calling the GN a lottery at some point in their career because they can't get it that, even nowadays, it's rarely the best horse that wins it.
But you pays ya money, you takes ya choice.
Gaillard Du Mesnil
Eva's Oskar (Mrs Molloy's choice after some TV prog)
Vanillier
Coko Beach
Could be 50L off and still pay!
The trainer's obviously confident if he's ridden more conservatively but Longhouse Poet didn't get home off same GNOR last time - spent by the last fence, to my eyes.
But I did back him last year because he has a GN-starred pedigree and he was in the sweet spot then as an 8yo 2nd season chaser - obviously not that now.
I also didn't rate that 26f win in Down Patrick all that highly (last run) and nor seemingly did the Racing Post (RPR128 !!) so a mark of 154 (= his career best RPR) looks high to me.
But he does have the pedigree for it and could be Big Run No Cigar
Sam Brown - not for me.
Long in the tooth at 11, too much weight with 11-04, fails 6 of my 11 stat tests. Failed in only run 26f+ (GNT at Haydock last year) and and has no pedigree plus.
Ground is probably too quick but 160 Win on Betfair had to be taken with the chance that blinkers do the business.
Has the stamina in his genes but has to be able to stay within reasonable range.
We'll see.
2 bites of the cherry for the Captain's Stateroom.
PS Back into the earth's atmosphere at 110 now - glad I'm not the only eternal optimist.
Supposedly GS (Soft places - generally at the furthest part of the course) on the National course.
We shall see.
Best of luck all.
Good luck with yours.
Added issue now of whether some horses may boil over with the apparent delay we may have.
I've got 2 of the more likely!!
If we ever get there, PLEASE, let them go first time at the start !!!!
I'd glue them to the fences AFTER the race & leave them there overnight.