Super thread as always Peanuts. Shame that Battleoverdoyen isn’t running today, thought he was ridden like he was running in the National yesterday- outpaced by the end but had some petrol still in the tank clearly by the last. I’ve added Noble Yeats to my slip as well, he has gone to a backable price for me now, and his performance last year and his warm up run in the GC find him too hard to resist.
Cheers @Big_Bob Couldn't agree more re Battleoverdoyen - a shame cos it seemed like he was bought from Gigginstown with the GN a target. Sure to put in a big run is last year's winner, barring misfortune. Nice move with the price drift. Best of luck.
No Virtual Grand National this year. Strange as I thought it was a good raiser for charity?
Had done pretty well, as well. Maybe they couldn't reconcile Noble Yeats and binned the algorithm Should have given me a call
Looks like Delta W will go off fav now. Money for and shortening price across the board Roi Mage (22~25) and Velvet Elvis (28~33 though Bob wants to get him too and is top-priced 40s - e/w value there IMO) and Cape Gentleman having his turn as a 100/1 shot to attract bargain hunters - got a GN-starred pedigree and could outrun his price but too many stat-fails for me)
FYI for anyone debating it, the national weekend in Liverpool is unbelievable. The buzz around the whole place from Friday through to Saturday night is infectious. Did it 5 years ago and arranging it again for next year. You’d be lead to believe it’s one big punch up looking at the papers but it’s really not, highly recommend.
I've posted the model's top-ratings (below) but this is how my betting slip is shaped - weighted stakes to make me broadly indifferent to whichever wins (should I be so fortunate) except that I can never resist an outsized lash at real wild price, so * would mean a regal wave from the Captain's Stateroom for the Marvels of Alaska.
Each-way:
Mr Incredible (14/1)
Delta Work (21/1 with a boost)
The Big Breakaway (33/1)
Velvet Elvis (43/1 with a boost)
Dunboyne (53/1 with a boost)
Back On The Lash (100/1)
A Wave Of The Sea (279 Win on Betfair & 26.00 Top 5 finish) *
Top 5 Finish:
Gaillard Du Mesnil (4.33)
Top 10 Finish:
Recite A Prayer (8.00)
The Model:
There are 5 runners that both match an Archetype and have the minimum requisite Pedigree profile to Win or place <10L. Ranking them by strongest GN-starred Pedigree Profile, they are:
Dunboyne [NAP on Soft, likely to be outpaced if quickish GS] – Archetype 1
Delta Work [NAP on Good to Soft] – Archetype 3
Mr Incredible – Archetype 1
The Big Breakaway – Archetype 3
Back On The Lash [must have decent ground] – Archetype 3
And 2 that have an overall Profile consistent with placing 10~20L behind the winner:
Gaillard Du Mesnil – Archetype 1
Velvet Elvis – Archetype 1
And 1 that has the potential to smack gobs at 150/1 (6 places):
A Wave Of The Sea – narrow miss as Archetype 2 (3rd season chaser but only a 7yo) but GN-starred damside pedigree
And the best of the rest:
- For the Irish – Any Second Now (narrow miss Archetype 3, strong Pedigree profile)
- For the Brits – Our Power (narrow miss Archetype 2, narrow miss Pedigree profile)
5.1 would be low if it's still that when they take it (for those unaware, the lower the reading, the softer the ground) but a dry day forecast and it dries quickly. Slowest modern GN on officially Good to Soft was 2021 and goingstick reading that day (unknown time it was taken) was 5.2 (weather dry and breezy, as today)
Having gone through pain last year of backing Freewheelin Dylan ew for months and then to see him come in 7th, I’ve taken the shorter odds for 8 places this year on a couple of selections (A Wave of the sea 70/1, Big Breakaway 30/1). Also done Delta Work win only and a silly tricast with 3 Peanuts suggestions.
Good luck everyone today, hope it’s a great days racing and thanks as always to the main man for his simply brilliant thread.
This is all a bit spooky but I do seem to have had more than average luck down the years when backing a GN runner with a geezer's name in it:
Montys Pass - won 2003 King Johns Castle - 2nd 2010 Oscar Time - 2nd 2011 Swing Bill - 6th 2013 Chance Du Roy - 6th 2014 Vic's Canvas - 3rd 2016
Simon was going fantastically when tipping up 5 out in 2007 A Toi Phil went well but ran out of gas though Joe Farrell bombed in 2019 Freewheelin Dylan ran a blinder in 7th last year. Sadly missed One For Arthur altogether But a 60% frame-making rate (obvious baloney though it is as a stat) is pretty bizarre.
Yes it's drying weather today but how much better can the ground get between 11am and 5.15pm?
It seems nailed on to be straight Good to Soft but, with the rain during racing yesterday and the ground being opened up, I still think it will ride on the slower side of GS. I'm thinking a winning time in the vicinity of 5~10 seconds slow of std.
Not ideal for either Dunboyne or Back On The Lash (though maybe not so adverse as to rule either out from being in the mix) but perfect for the others I've backed and no excuses for most lining up.
Records in the GN of some of the Jockeys on fancied runners tomorrow:
Paul Townend (Gaillard Du Mesnil) - 11 rides: 0UFP0PPPPUU Aidan Coleman (The Big Dog) - 14 rides: 0FFFPUUF00PP2P Sean Bowen (Noble Yeats) - 7 rides: 000PPP0 Sam Twiston-Davies (Our Power) - 12 rides: 5P7PU0PFBPR0
4 top jocks, 44 rides: wins 0, places 2
Tough life being a NH jockey
Flip side of the coin, also riding tomorrow, Derek Fox and Ryan Mania both won it on their GN debuts.
Means nowt of course but 9 jockeys make their GN debut tomorrow:
Michael O’Sullivan - Carefully Selected Kieren Buckley - Diol Ker Shane Fitzgerald - A Wave Of The Sea Theo Gillard - Minella Trump Simon Torrens - Enjoy D’Allen Peter Carberry - Gabby’s Cross Jack Foley - Recite A Prayer Alan Johns - Eva’s Oskar Ben Jones - Francky Du Berlais
Could it be?
I've had a small punt on Carefully Selected on the strength of the young jockey, AND the horse is a reported mudlark
Interesting how value seems to be the name of the game this morning, unless it just the
bookies collectively putting on a squeeze.
Everything (bar Gaillard) from favs out to 22/1
slightly on the drift and it's those 25+ that are apparently seeing money.
Roi Mage now best 25
Coko Beach 28
Velvet Elvis 33
Back On The Lash 33
Mister Coffey 33
Fury Road 33
For me it's a surprise that The Big Breakaway is
friendless and drifted out to 40s, especially with The Big Dog well-tipped up at 16s.
The Big Breakaway stayed-on strongly to the line with 11-13 on Soft, passing The
Big Dog who was flagging at the finish of the Welsh GN, less than 4 months
ago and just 3.5f short of today's trip. The Big Dog is +11lbs in mark today, putting The Big Breakaway 13lbs well-in with him based on that run.
Creditable form in Grade 1 chases,
including on quicker ground.
Close relative of GN 3rd Rathvinden
Decent yard and jockey, responsible for last year's GN 5th.
I get that he has going and not-going days and that PU in the Ultima didn't
look great (needed some encouragement at the start). But wears first-time
blinkers today which could galvanise him (importantly he's used to wearing cheek pieces) and, if so, he's the right age (8yo), has the ability, stamina and weight on his back (10-10, the same carried by Noble Yeats a year ago) to win - certainly to go close. I know I'm biased but 40/1 (7 places at SkyBet) looks nuts to me.
Peanuts, not sure how influential these days Templegate is with the punters but he has Big Breakaway 2* out of 5*. “No big deal, 2 in Welsh before poor run at Cheltenham. Stays and jumps well but should be a bigger price in the betting”
Interesting how value seems to be the name of the game this morning, unless it just the
bookies collectively putting on a squeeze.
Everything (bar Gaillard) from favs out to 22/1
slightly on the drift and it's those 25+ that are apparently seeing money.
Roi Mage now best 25 Coko Beach 28
Velvet Elvis 33
Back On The Lash 33
Mister Coffey 33
Fury Road 33
For me it's a surprise that The Big Breakaway is
friendless and drifted out to 40s, especially with The Big Dog well-tipped up at 16s.
The Big Breakaway stayed-on strongly to the line with 11-13 on Soft, passing The
Big Dog who was flagging at the finish of the Welsh GN, less than 4 months
ago and just 3.5f short of today's trip. The Big Dog is +11lbs in mark today, putting The Big Breakaway 13lbs well-in with him based on that run.
Creditable form in Grade 1 chases,
including on quicker ground.
Close relative of GN 3rd Rathvinden
Decent yard and jockey, responsible for last year's GN 5th.
I get that he has going and not-going days and that PU in the Ultima didn't
look great (needed some encouragement at the start). But wears first-time
blinkers today which could galvanise him (importantly he's used to wearing cheek pieces) and, if so, he's the right age (8yo), has the ability, stamina and weight on his back (10-10, the same carried by Noble Yeats a year ago) to win - certainly to go close. I know I'm biased but 40/1 (7 places at SkyBet) looks nuts to me.
once more, little bit of my hard earned on Coko at 33s .. I suspect he's shortened on the strength of having Cobden on board
Comments
Couldn't agree more re Battleoverdoyen - a shame cos it seemed like he was bought from Gigginstown with the GN a target.
Sure to put in a big run is last year's winner, barring misfortune. Nice move with the price drift.
Best of luck.
- Delta Work
- Corach Rambler
- Le Milos
- Our Power
- Cloudy Glen
- The Big Breakaway
5 of the first 6 British-trained - ballsy!Should have given me a call
Looks like Delta W will go off fav now.
Money for and shortening price across the board Roi Mage (22~25) and Velvet Elvis (28~33 though Bob wants to get him too and is top-priced 40s - e/w value there IMO) and Cape Gentleman having his turn as a 100/1 shot to attract bargain hunters - got a GN-starred pedigree and could outrun his price but too many stat-fails for me)
I'm a believer but .....
Great posts all round and some interesting views on how bets are derived on the persons choice.
Great knowledge peanuts and some great tips.
Forecast: A pleasant day on Sat with plenty of sunny spells
Each-way:
- Mr Incredible (14/1)
- Delta Work (21/1 with a boost)
- The Big Breakaway (33/1)
- Velvet Elvis (43/1 with a boost)
- Dunboyne (53/1 with a boost)
- Back On The Lash (100/1)
- A Wave Of The Sea (279 Win on Betfair & 26.00 Top 5 finish) *
Top 5 Finish:- Gaillard Du Mesnil (4.33)
Top 10 Finish:The Model:
There are 5 runners that both match an Archetype and have the minimum requisite Pedigree profile to Win or place <10L. Ranking them by strongest GN-starred Pedigree Profile, they are:
And 2 that have an overall Profile consistent with placing 10~20L behind the winner:
And 1 that has the potential to smack gobs at 150/1 (6 places):
And the best of the rest:
- For the Brits – Our Power (narrow miss Archetype 2, narrow miss Pedigree profile)
5.1 would be low if it's still that when they take it (for those unaware, the lower the reading, the softer the ground) but a dry day forecast and it dries quickly.
Slowest modern GN on officially Good to Soft was 2021 and goingstick reading that day (unknown time it was taken) was 5.2 (weather dry and breezy, as today)
Good luck everyone today, hope it’s a great days racing and thanks as always to the main man for his simply brilliant thread.
Montys Pass - won 2003
King Johns Castle - 2nd 2010
Oscar Time - 2nd 2011
Swing Bill - 6th 2013
Chance Du Roy - 6th 2014
Vic's Canvas - 3rd 2016
Simon was going fantastically when tipping up 5 out in 2007
A Toi Phil went well but ran out of gas though Joe Farrell bombed in 2019
Freewheelin Dylan ran a blinder in 7th last year.
Sadly missed One For Arthur altogether
But a 60% frame-making rate (obvious baloney though it is as a stat) is pretty bizarre.
Could it be ........ Velvet Elvis ?
1.45 Jonbon
Delta Work - 9/1 win
Backonthelash - 22/1 e/w
Dunboyne - 50/1 e/w
Big Breakaway - 40/1 e/w
Velvet Elvis - 33/1 e/w
Fortescue - 66/1 e/w
Good luck everyone and cheers for all the hard work Peanuts.
Going Stick Chase: 5.8 Hurdle: 6.0 National: 5.2 on 15-04-2023 at 11:00
Very interesting that it's still down in the low 5s.
For comparison (though we don't know what time of day these readings were taken):
2013: 6.0 GS(Gd) (winning time: 8s slow of standard)
2014: 6.6 GS(Gd) (slow 5.9s)
2015: 6.6 GS(Gd) (fast 7.2s)
2017: 6.6 GS(Gd) (fast 0.5s)
2019: n/a
2021: 5.2 GS (slow 11.4s)
2022: 5.6 GS (fast 0.9s)
Yes it's drying weather today but how much better can the ground get between 11am and 5.15pm?
It seems nailed on to be straight Good to Soft but, with the rain during racing yesterday and the ground being opened up, I still think it will ride on the slower side of GS. I'm thinking a winning time in the vicinity of 5~10 seconds slow of std.
Not ideal for either Dunboyne or Back On The Lash (though maybe not so adverse as to rule either out from being in the mix) but perfect for the others I've backed and no excuses for most lining up.
Delta Work NAP
Good time Johnny
Hermes Allen
Midnight River
Interesting how value seems to be the name of the game this morning, unless it just the bookies collectively putting on a squeeze.
Everything (bar Gaillard) from favs out to 22/1 slightly on the drift and it's those 25+ that are apparently seeing money.
Roi Mage now best 25
Coko Beach 28
Velvet Elvis 33
Back On The Lash 33
Mister Coffey 33
Fury Road 33
For me it's a surprise that The Big Breakaway is friendless and drifted out to 40s, especially with The Big Dog well-tipped up at 16s.