She's making provision for the cost of Bob's pension and golden handshake. Those watches he likes don't come cheap you know!
You may say that, I couldn’t possibly comment!
Have you found a successor yet? Asking for a friend who has a wife that is an existing HR Director for a well known institution. The friend, by all accounts, would be gutted if his wife was forced to relocate but he says that he would get over it in time.
Peanuts, I'm a bit surprised you were still talking about Dunboyne yesterday, when your "nap" on his possible success is based on the going being soft, when it's looking more likely good to soft and soft in places? Luke Harvey is suggesting it's possibly on good side of good to soft. (I don't wish to put you on the spot and realise it's in the lap of the God's in any case).
Peanuts, I'm a bit surprised you were still talking about Dunboyne yesterday, when your "nap" on his possible success is based on the going being soft, when it's looking more likely good to soft and soft in places? Luke Harvey is suggesting it's possibly on good side of good to soft. (I don't wish to put you on the spot and realise it's in the lap of the God's in any case).
It's not going to be Soft so he's not my NAP. I did say yesterday that on GS it's Delta Work. The Mildmay course is riding a fair bit quicker than anyone anticipated after the rain we had and the forecast for today and tomorrow has dried up since yesterday. So it will probably be too quick for Dunboyne if the ground dries out further but that would bring Back On The Lash back into the equation. Who knows what version of GS we'll have on Saturday but my projection of GS (Soft places) is now probably at most a 25% chance, dependent on them watering and then getting a Saturday pm drop of rain - not expected but it does sometimes happen when it's generally unsettled. We'll know a little more from the time that the Foxhunters clock.
You also can't tell what effect first time blinkers may have on him - it may help him stay in touch on ground that otherwise would be too quick. I'm mindful of having put some people off Mon Mome in 2009 saying he was a soft ground horse (he was) but the way the race was run played into his hands and he romped home. Ground preferences are a tricky one.
I backed Delta Work, Mr Incredible and The Big Breakaway a couple of weeks ago when they were top in your model and waited re Back on the Lash and Dunboyne to see the likely going. So I added Back on the Lash a few days ago and have left off Dunboyne. Thanks Peanuts, excellent as always.
I have below two longshots from a while back on NRNB basis (another two didn't make it so money coming back)
Back on the lash A wave of the sea
And have also done the below reverse forecasts just in case Peanuts model is on fire !!!
Delta Work / Dunboyne Delta Work / Back on the lash Delta Work / A wave of the sea Dunboyne / Back on the lash Dunboyne / A wave of the sea Back on the lash / A wave of the sea
So basically, come on Back on the lash / A wave of the sea !!!!!
I timed winner of the Foxhunters at c.16 secs slow of std - that's pretty much genuine GS (no Soft or Gd places I would say) Plenty of sunny intervals and a drying wind they'll surely be ready to water depending on the amount of any more rain tonight and tomorrow (only a few mm forecast at most and none on Saturday).
I have below two longshots from a while back on NRNB basis (another two didn't make it so money coming back)
Back on the lash A wave of the sea
And have also done the below reverse forecasts just in case Peanuts model is on fire !!!
Delta Work / Dunboyne Delta Work / Back on the lash Delta Work / A wave of the sea Dunboyne / Back on the lash Dunboyne / A wave of the sea Back on the lash / A wave of the sea
So basically, come on Back on the lash / A wave of the sea !!!!!
I have below two longshots from a while back on NRNB basis (another two didn't make it so money coming back)
Back on the lash A wave of the sea
And have also done the below reverse forecasts just in case Peanuts model is on fire !!!
Delta Work / Dunboyne Delta Work / Back on the lash Delta Work / A wave of the sea Dunboyne / Back on the lash Dunboyne / A wave of the sea Back on the lash / A wave of the sea
So basically, come on Back on the lash / A wave of the sea !!!!!
Maybe consider a combination Tricast with the four - 24 bets.
She's making provision for the cost of Bob's pension and golden handshake. Those watches he likes don't come cheap you know!
You may say that, I couldn’t possibly comment!
Have you found a successor yet? Asking for a friend who has a wife that is an existing HR Director for a well known institution. The friend, by all accounts, would be gutted if his wife was forced to relocate but he says that he would get over it in time.
Yes I have - he's been working as my under study for six years and is ready for the big gig.
She's making provision for the cost of Bob's pension and golden handshake. Those watches he likes don't come cheap you know!
Complete red herring. I have long suspected that the poster "bobmunro" is nothing more than a mid-range chatbot due to be superseded by version 2.0 in the next few months. "He" is nothing more than a string of code taking up a few Gb of disk space on a server somewhere in Zurich.
She's making provision for the cost of Bob's pension and golden handshake. Those watches he likes don't come cheap you know!
Complete red herring. I have long suspected that the poster "bobmunro" is nothing more than a mid-range chatbot due to be superseded by version 2.0 in the next few months. "He" is nothing more than a string of code taking up a few Gb of disk space on a server somewhere in Zurich.
She's making provision for the cost of Bob's pension and golden handshake. Those watches he likes don't come cheap you know!
You may say that, I couldn’t possibly comment!
Have you found a successor yet? Asking for a friend who has a wife that is an existing HR Director for a well known institution. The friend, by all accounts, would be gutted if his wife was forced to relocate but he says that he would get over it in time.
Yes I have - he's been working as my under study for six years and is ready for the big gig.
lets hope he is more of a Bob Paisley than a Brian Kidd
Small treble for me today on Shishkin, Constitution Hill and Dysart Enos. Some more money to play with on the big day
Nice , i avoided the main ones bar Bainbridge. although Shishkin win done me out of a double. Luckily i got both the 4:15/4:40 ones so ended up being decent in the end. I've added another few for GN, shame 365 hasn't done anything so Sky got mine with 7 places today, have a few on each now though tbf
Clerk of the course reported after racing today: "It has dried out through the day, as you would expect with the breeze and the sun. The jockeys said it was veering towards good by the end of the afternoon.
"So we are going to apply 4mm to 5mm of water to the whole course to maintain good to soft ground. There is the possibility of a shower overnight but not enough – or with enough reliability – to allow us to sit tight."
We’ll see how it rides in the Topham tomorrow but, unless there’s unexpected rain, watering probably won’t stop it drifting to the quicker side of GS by late pm Saturday.
Understandably, money coming for Back On The Lash (50/1 now only from Bet365, 40/1 Sky Bet 7 places, otherwise as short as 25/1) and not just from part owner Harry Redknapp.
Despite being O/H, he’s still nicely weighted vs Delta Work on his defeat of DW in the XC handicap in January and drying ground is perfect for him.
Galvin could go well on decent ground and Lifetime Ambition and Recite A Prayer are both Spring Ground horses, but BOTL is the only specific good ground lover that ticks all the model’s Golden boxes and has a GN-starred pedigree. To remind you:
He has a rare array of Damsires. DS 1,2 and
3, all having offspring that won a G1 at 10f+. Only 27 runners in the GN 2013~22 had such an array and only 10 of these 27 (7 different horses) also had form in a 29f+ chase.
Those 10 runners contributed 5 of 9 winners (Auroras Encore, Rule The World, One For Arthur, Tiger Roll x2), runner-up
Cause of Causes and 5th Rare Bob. Only Minella Rocco ticked both boxes and flopped in his (only)
GN run.
Of all 2023 entries, only Back On The
Lash ticks both of these boxes.
If the ground rides on the quick side of GS, as the forecast suggests it likely will, it could easily be a very ‘Appy ‘Arry.
If you fancy him but haven’t backed him yet, I’d hit Bob pronto because that 50/1 won’t last.
There’s no model for tomorrow’s Topham, obviously, and I’m gutted he’s not having a tilt at the big one, in which IMHO he could have done a Balko Des Flos on the drying ground, but I’m still gonna have a shilling e/w on Battleoverdoyen (50/1 6 places). He could easily drift tomorrow morning given how far he is off anyone’s radar screen bar mine. 16lbs lower mark than when jumping the fences beautifully in the same race a year ago - was well in touch but tapped for toe from the Melling Road and came home 10th under 11-08. Will carry 10-09 tomorrow with a 3lb claimer aboard. The 10yo may be past his best but he was still good enough to notch RPR152 earlier this season in a Grade 2 and he looks nice e/w value to me off OR141. Just wish he was going over further.
Back on the lash now 28/1 (7 places) with skybet, but don’t automatically dismiss 365 because of the lack of the offer this year as their ew extra (7 places) has BOTL @ 30/1.
Mrs Molloy is not the only member of the family to like a rummage around the bargain basement and with the ground likely heading to the quick side of GS, I'm taking a close look at those horses (like Aurora's Encore) who perform appreciably better on Spring Ground but tend to be overlooked by the market because of moderate form over the winter.
It's time to do so when bookies pay out on 6 places because there have been 6th placed horses that were near-missers as regards passing sufficient of the model's 11 tests to make it onto the team:
For my model's purposes, a "Spring Ground" horse has from mid-March to mid-May (excluding F,UR,BD) winning/near-missing or frame-making rate over fences from 4+ runs is 75%+ (or 100% from 3) and is at least x1.5 the rate in other months.
GN Winners/Near-missers that were Spring Ground horses:
Aurora's Encore (Spring win/near-miss rate 83% from 7 vs 8.3% = x10)
Tiger Roll 2019 (80% from 5 vs 46% = x1.7)
Any Second Now 2022 (75% from 4 vs 36% = x2.1)
Placed horses that were demonstrably at their best on Spring Ground:
Alvarado 2014 &2015
Goonyella
Anibale Fly
Burrows Saint
Farclas
Delta Work
But here's the interesting bit.
Only 23 GN runners (6.4%) passed this Spring Ground test.
5 of them F or UR 3 won or near-missed 6 others placed first 5 3 finished 6th (Chance Du Roy, Royale Knight, Road To Riches) 2 finished 7th (Discorama, Freewheelin Dylan)
Only 4 of those 23 runners that were "Spring Ground" horses completed >7th or PU. In other words, excluding those that F or UR, the Spring Ground horses have a 67% strike rate of making the first 6 home and 78% strike rate for the first 7.
2023 Spring Ground horses:
Any Second Now (16/1) - too much weight from model's perspective
Delta Work (8/1) - rated Winning Calibre
Lifetime Ambition (28/1) - too much weight
Velvet Elvis (40/1) - rated Frame-Maker
Recite A Prayer (100/1) - ??
Two of these are among the top 7 rated by the model and I've backed both.
But, from the bargain bin, I'm also going to have an interest in RECITE A PRAYER, who doesn't fail the test-screen by a country mile. He's an 8yo 2nd season chaser so is in the sweet spot from that perspective.
His record over hurdles and fences March~May reads: 2121
Over fences he is 100% wins/near-misses from 3 in Spring, compared to 33% in other months
I'm tempted to take the 100/1 e/w 6 places but I need to be realistic. He's very unlikely to win this or even go close, so that translates to 10/1 for finishing first 6.
Call me a boring old fart (as Mrs Molloy frequently does) but I'm going to play the %s and back him with a Bet365 Special at 8.00 (7/1) to finish in the Top 10.
In 17 races Under Rules, he has 0 F/UR and only 1 PU (on Soft ground in December carrying 11-10)
Completed over the fences (47L 12th in the Becher Chase in December)
Willie Mullins endorsed him as a safe conveyance after the weights: "he ran around Aintree and is usually a very good jumper. He’s a horse that lots of lads will putting their hands up to ride."
BTW, pedigree does have some GN pluses:
a Sire and Damsire that won a G1 at 10f+
a nice helping of Wild Risk in his pedigree.
2nd Damsire Over The River sired or damsired several to make minor places in a GN.
Placed in a 28f Cork National on testing ground, he’s exactly the plodding type, like dear old Tarquinius (8th in 2013), to stay on when others have waved the white flag.
There’s no model for tomorrow’s Topham, obviously, and I’m gutted he’s not having a tilt at the big one, in which IMHO he could have done a Balko Des Flos on the drying ground, but I’m still gonna have a shilling e/w on Battleoverdoyen (50/1 6 places). He could easily drift tomorrow morning given how far he is off anyone’s radar screen bar mine. 16lbs lower mark than when jumping the fences beautifully in the same race a year ago - was well in touch but tapped for toe from the Melling Road and came home 10th under 11-08. Will carry 10-09 tomorrow with a 3lb claimer aboard. The 10yo may be past his best but he was still good enough to notch RPR152 earlier this season in a Grade 2 and he looks nice e/w value to me off OR141. Just wish he was going over further.
I have below two longshots from a while back on NRNB basis (another two didn't make it so money coming back)
Back on the lash A wave of the sea
And have also done the below reverse forecasts just in case Peanuts model is on fire !!!
Delta Work / Dunboyne Delta Work / Back on the lash Delta Work / A wave of the sea Dunboyne / Back on the lash Dunboyne / A wave of the sea Back on the lash / A wave of the sea
So basically, come on Back on the lash / A wave of the sea !!!!!
On the piss in Canterbury tomorrow so will have an e/w bet on Back On The Lash.
I live 18 miles from Aintree (a little less as the Robin flys) and this morning it has been pissing down with rain all morning. Checked the current forecast there and it seems the same, where yesterday it was not predicting much rain today.
Not sure how much difference this will make in the end, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the going turns out to be softer tomorrow than was predicted yesterday
I live 18 miles from Aintree (a little less as the Robin flys) and this morning it has been pissing down with rain all morning. Checked the current forecast there and it seems the same, where yesterday it was not predicting much rain today.
Not sure how much difference this will make in the end, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the going turns out to be softer tomorrow than was predicted yesterday
Light rain is forecast for today up until around 5.00pm - then nothing overnight and sun all day tomorrow. I expect genuine G/S tomorrow.
Isn't there always a ? over the conditions every year but it ends up Good-Soft, the only doubt is if its torrential rain during the day then it would obviously change it but always assume Good-Soft
Comments
Luke Harvey is suggesting it's possibly on good side of good to soft.
(I don't wish to put you on the spot and realise it's in the lap of the God's in any case).
The Mildmay course is riding a fair bit quicker than anyone anticipated after the rain we had and the forecast for today and tomorrow has dried up since yesterday.
So it will probably be too quick for Dunboyne if the ground dries out further but that would bring Back On The Lash back into the equation.
Who knows what version of GS we'll have on Saturday but my projection of GS (Soft places) is now probably at most a 25% chance, dependent on them watering and then getting a Saturday pm drop of rain - not expected but it does sometimes happen when it's generally unsettled.
We'll know a little more from the time that the Foxhunters clock.
You also can't tell what effect first time blinkers may have on him - it may help him stay in touch on ground that otherwise would be too quick.
I'm mindful of having put some people off Mon Mome in 2009 saying he was a soft ground horse (he was) but the way the race was run played into his hands and he romped home.
Ground preferences are a tricky one.
So I added Back on the Lash a few days ago and have left off Dunboyne.
Thanks Peanuts, excellent as always.
Back on the lash
A wave of the sea
And have also done the below reverse forecasts just in case Peanuts model is on fire !!!
Delta Work / Dunboyne
Delta Work / Back on the lash
Delta Work / A wave of the sea
Dunboyne / Back on the lash
Dunboyne / A wave of the sea
Back on the lash / A wave of the sea
So basically, come on Back on the lash / A wave of the sea !!!!!
Plenty of sunny intervals and a drying wind they'll surely be ready to water depending on the amount of any more rain tonight and tomorrow (only a few mm forecast at most and none on Saturday).
Maybe consider a combination Tricast with the four - 24 bets.
Yes I have - he's been working as my under study for six years and is ready for the big gig.
How d.d.d.d.dare yo.... Error 404 Reboot
Clerk of the course reported after racing today: "It has dried out through the day, as you would expect with the breeze and the sun. The jockeys said it was veering towards good by the end of the afternoon.
"So we are going to apply 4mm to 5mm of water to the whole course to maintain good to soft ground. There is the possibility of a shower overnight but not enough – or with enough reliability – to allow us to sit tight."
We’ll see how it rides in the Topham tomorrow but, unless there’s unexpected rain, watering probably won’t stop it drifting to the quicker side of GS by late pm Saturday.
Understandably, money coming for Back On The Lash (50/1 now only from Bet365, 40/1 Sky Bet 7 places, otherwise as short as 25/1) and not just from part owner Harry Redknapp.
Despite being O/H, he’s still nicely weighted vs Delta Work on his defeat of DW in the XC handicap in January and drying ground is perfect for him.
Galvin could go well on decent ground and Lifetime Ambition and Recite A Prayer are both Spring Ground horses, but BOTL is the only specific good ground lover that ticks all the model’s Golden boxes and has a GN-starred pedigree. To remind you:
If you fancy him but haven’t backed him yet, I’d hit Bob pronto because that 50/1 won’t last.
16lbs lower mark than when jumping the fences beautifully in the same race a year ago - was well in touch but tapped for toe from the Melling Road and came home 10th under 11-08. Will carry 10-09 tomorrow with a 3lb claimer aboard.
The 10yo may be past his best but he was still good enough to notch RPR152 earlier this season in a Grade 2 and he looks nice e/w value to me off OR141. Just wish he was going over further.
Mrs Molloy is not the only member of the family to like a rummage around the bargain basement and with the ground likely heading to the quick side of GS, I'm taking a close look at those horses (like Aurora's Encore) who perform appreciably better on Spring Ground but tend to be overlooked by the market because of moderate form over the winter.
It's time to do so when bookies pay out on 6 places because there have been 6th placed horses that were near-missers as regards passing sufficient of the model's 11 tests to make it onto the team:
For my model's purposes, a "Spring Ground" horse has from mid-March to mid-May (excluding F,UR,BD) winning/near-missing or frame-making rate over fences from 4+ runs is 75%+ (or 100% from 3) and is at least x1.5 the rate in other months.
GN Winners/Near-missers that were Spring Ground horses:
- Aurora's Encore (Spring win/near-miss rate 83% from 7 vs 8.3% = x10)
- Tiger Roll 2019 (80% from 5 vs 46% = x1.7)
- Any Second Now 2022 (75% from 4 vs 36% = x2.1)
Placed horses that were demonstrably at their best on Spring Ground:- Alvarado 2014 &2015
- Goonyella
- Anibale Fly
- Burrows Saint
- Farclas
- Delta Work
But here's the interesting bit.Only 23 GN runners (6.4%) passed this Spring Ground test.
5 of them F or UR
3 won or near-missed
6 others placed first 5
3 finished 6th (Chance Du Roy, Royale Knight, Road To Riches)
2 finished 7th (Discorama, Freewheelin Dylan)
Only 4 of those 23 runners that were "Spring Ground" horses completed >7th or PU. In other words, excluding those that F or UR, the Spring Ground horses have a 67% strike rate of making the first 6 home and 78% strike rate for the first 7.
2023 Spring Ground horses:
- Any Second Now (16/1) - too much weight from model's perspective
- Delta Work (8/1) - rated Winning Calibre
- Lifetime Ambition (28/1) - too much weight
- Velvet Elvis (40/1) - rated Frame-Maker
- Recite A Prayer (100/1) - ??
Two of these are among the top 7 rated by the model and I've backed both.But, from the bargain bin, I'm also going to have an interest in RECITE A PRAYER, who doesn't fail the test-screen by a country mile. He's an 8yo 2nd season chaser so is in the sweet spot from that perspective.
- His record over hurdles and fences March~May reads: 2121
- Over fences he is 100% wins/near-misses from 3 in Spring, compared to 33% in other months
I'm tempted to take the 100/1 e/w 6 places but I need to be realistic. He's very unlikely to win this or even go close, so that translates to 10/1 for finishing first 6.Call me a boring old fart (as Mrs Molloy frequently does) but I'm going to play the %s and back him with a Bet365 Special at 8.00 (7/1) to finish in the Top 10.
- In 17 races Under Rules, he has 0 F/UR and only 1 PU (on Soft ground in December carrying 11-10)
- Completed over the fences (47L 12th in the Becher Chase in December)
- Willie Mullins endorsed him as a safe conveyance after the weights: "he ran around Aintree and is usually a very good jumper. He’s a horse that lots of lads will putting their hands up to ride."
BTW, pedigree does have some GN pluses:Not sure how much difference this will make in the end, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the going turns out to be softer tomorrow than was predicted yesterday