If the GC & GN is a tough combo, with a few days extra recovery and perhaps taking a less extreme toll, the Festival
Cross Country is a road to GN victory (or near-victory) more frequently travelled, though successfully so to date only by horses of Gordon Elliott.
It was Silver Birch's GN win in 2007 (with
10-06), after a close 2nd in the XC (then a handicap) 32 days earlier, that put
Elliott on the map training-wise.
Cause Of Causes nearly did the double 24 days
apart (2nd 4.5L at Aintree with 10-13) in 2016 and of course Tiger did the
double-double in 2018 (10-13) & 19 (11-05), 31 and 24 days being the
respective gaps. He grudgingly handed over the XC baton to Delta Work last year (3rd 22L at Aintree
with 11-09, 24 days later).
All of them, Elliott-trained. This year GALVIN (9yo, 11-11,
33/1) seems to be following this same
path, though with the benefit of 31 days recovery.
Current Stat-profile: No cigar - 3 fails (1
Golden), 1 Pedigree Plus
Change potential: If winning or near-missing XC,Strong Place Potential
Ground pref: indifferent
Seasoned
chaser with 17 to his name (60% win or near-miss at 24f+) and Gr 1 winner
Stamina
is his forte – won the 2021 30f Nov Chase at the Festival and just lacked
a gear to be closer than 17L 4th in the 2022 Gold Cup.
This
season has turned a little disappointing – having matched career-high RPR168,
he was a beaten fav and then well adrift in Grade 1 company. Elliott reported
at the weights’ unveiling that he’d “just
had a little procedure done on his back and he is back working well”.
Pedigree
Plus
is interesting, mainly in the shape of his Sire:
Gold
Well
(unraced brother to Montjeu – Sire of Tiger Roll’s Sire, Authorized). He’s
had 4 different, unsuccessful GN runners to date (though 3 Fell – incl. General
Principle, unluckily when going nicely) but his offspring’s record generally
over 31.5f+ is impressive: 5 wins and 6 places from 30 attempts (37%
frame-making beats the average by approx. x2)
Damsire
Moonax was a G1 winner at 15.5f on the flat and DS2 Pharadante was Damsire
of Double Seven (6L 3rd GN 2014)
As
we know, 11-11 is a big barrier to GN success but, if everything else
stacks up, it’s not impossible to go very close even so and a win or
near-miss in the XC would elevate his GN profile enough to do so.
If he’s fit, I expect him to turn XC fav Delta Work over and, on that
basis, 33/1 for the GN puts him very much on my short-list. A smidgeon of value there methinks, but only if one's willing to take the gamble on his fitness and back him ahead of Cheltenham.
That’s the
thorny question to which I’ll attempt to figure out my answer over the weekend and a large
scotch or three.
Current Stat-profile: Place Potential - 3 fails (2 Golden but marginal), 2 Pedigree Pluses
Change potential: If winning or near-missing XC,Winning Calibre
Ground pref: to win, Softer the better
Despite
being a tad one-paced and 22L adrift, his 3rd last April under 11-09,
24 days after seizing Tiger’s XC Crown, was a fine run – especially as he found
himself well back and having to negotiate fallers and a couple of troublesome loose
horses at times. He certainly got the trip IMO but softer ground to take the sting out of others’ finish would have suited him as he just couldn’t go
with the turbo-charged finish of the front 2 (Any Second Now flew home from the 2nd last).
1st
and 2nd both clobbered by the handicapper, though we certainly shouldn’t
write off them off (particularly favourite Noble Yeats), and DW handed 1lb
lower GNOR, he’s set to carry a winnable-with 11-04.
- Sire Network and Damsire Video Rock is an identical combo to Saint Are (2L 2nd and 8L 3rd in GN 2015
and 17)
- The electric combo of Wild Risk and Bold Ruler on the
damside, shared by Rule The World, One For Arthur, Tiger Roll and Minella Times,
Saint Are, Magic Of Light and Rathvinden (50% of winners and near-missers from
only 11% of all runners)
But, excepting Tiger, it’s 19 years since Amberleigh House
was the last GN winner that had placed in the prior GN (also 3rd). Mon
Mome had previously completed but at the end of an injury-disrupted season and Silver
Birch and Hedgehunter had previously tipped up. Typically, the GN is won
by debutants.
Also at 10, he’s hit the age at which GN runners have, as a
group, underperformed, particularly since the race settled into its current character,
post-course changes. From 2015, 47% of GN runners were 10yo+ but they contributed
none of the 7 winners and only 34% of the first 5 home. 2 of those were near-missers
– 10yo Any Second Now last year and lightly-raced 11yo Rathvinden in 2019 – so it’s
certainly still possible. BTW, DW's had 19 chases compared to ASN's 20 last time.
Apart from a winning spin over the Banks at Punchestown, he’s followed Tiger’s 2019 campaign this term, with
a slow wind-up to the Festival. Last year DW had x3 Gr 1s by now but this time,
like Tiger, he’s been narrowly beaten in a handicap XC at Cheltenham and taken in the Boyne Hurdle over 21f, which Tiger won in 2019 but which
DW found too short on the Gd/Y ground.
Suffice to say, the XC next week will tell us whether age is dulling his cutting
edge. He’ll certainly have his work cut out to fend off stablemate
Galvin but, if he manages to win or go close (ground may dictate which is more likely), he’ll elevate his GN profile once
again to Winning Calibre.
As he’s more or less Evens to take the XC, 20/1 for the GN seems fair enough at this juncture and he's definitely also one for the weekend short-list.
If the GC & GN is a tough combo, with a few days extra recovery and perhaps taking a less extreme toll, the Festival
Cross Country is a road to GN victory (or near-victory) more frequently travelled, though successfully so to date only by horses of Gordon Elliott.
It was Silver Birch's GN win in 2007 (with
10-06), after a close 2nd in the XC (then a handicap) 32 days earlier, that put
Elliott on the map training-wise.
Cause Of Causes nearly did the double 24 days
apart (2nd 4.5L at Aintree with 10-13) in 2016 and of course Tiger did the
double-double in 2018 (10-13) & 19 (11-05), 31 and 24 days being the
respective gaps. He grudgingly handed over the XC baton to Delta Work last year (3rd 22L at Aintree
with 11-09, 24 days later).
All of them, Elliott-trained. This year GALVIN (9yo, 11-11,
33/1) seems to be following this same
path, though with the benefit of 31 days recovery.
Current Stat-profile: No cigar - 3 fails (1
Golden), 1 Pedigree Plus
Change potential: If winning XC and with an RPR matching Tiger's 171 in 2019,Strong Place Potential
Ground pref: better ground probably suits best
Seasoned
chaser with 17 to his name (60% win or near-miss at 24f+) and Gr 1 winner
Stamina
is his forte – won the 2021 30f Nov Chase at the Festival and just lacked
a gear to be closer than 17L 4th in the 2022 Gold Cup.
This
season has turned a little disappointing – having matched career-high RPR168,
he was a beaten fav and then well adrift in Grade 1 company. Elliott reported
at the weights’ unveiling that he’d “just
had a little procedure done on his back and he is back working well”.
Pedigree
Plus
is interesting, mainly in the shape of his Sire:
Gold
Well
(unraced brother to Montjeu – Sire of Tiger Roll’s Sire, Authorized). He’s
had 4 different, unsuccessful GN runners to date (though 3 Fell – incl. General
Principle, unluckily when going nicely) but his offspring’s record generally
over 31.5f+ is impressive: 5 wins and 6 places from 30 attempts (37%
frame-making beats the average by approx. x2)
Damsire
Moonax was a G1 winner at 15.5f on the flat and DS2 Pharadante was Damsire
of Double Seven (6L 3rd GN 2014)
As
we know, 11-11 is a big barrier to GN success but, if everything else
stacks up, it’s not impossible to go very close even so and a win or
near-miss in the XC would elevate his GN profile enough to do so.
If he’s fit and the ground is decent, I expect him to turn XC fav Delta Work over and, on that
basis, 33/1 for the GN puts him very much on my short-list. A smidgeon of value there methinks, but only if one's willing to take the gamble on his fitness and back him ahead of Cheltenham.
That’s the
thorny question to which I’ll attempt to figure out my answer over the weekend and a large
scotch or three.
Apologies folks - I've edited the GALVIN (new one above) and DELTA WORK write ups a tad, having had sufficient of the single malt yesterday evening while watching the latest Dragons Den for further ruminating.
Given the possibility of both dotting the i and crossing the t for the GN in next week's XC, this morning I've put a sharper pencil over both and, aside from more precise ground preferences relevant particularly for Delta (handles any ground but best winning chance clearly these days is on Soft and preference is probably for better ground for Galvin - which may also dictate their order of finishing next week), I should really have been more precise about what Galvin needs to show next week, to have a chance of being seriously in the mix off GNOR166 and 11-11 at Aintree.
Effectively, he's got to win the XC and up his best RPR (currently 168) by at least matching Tiger's RPR171 of 2019, to give him a 5lb+ best RPR vs GNOR.
My model doesn't employ an RPR as a negative test (it's a reference for one of the Minor Pluses), since prior races are often retrospectively adjusted up for winners, so the data-set isn't 100% reliable. BUT, the fact is that every horse to make the frame with >11-06 on its back in a "modern" GN since 2013 either had its GNOR meaningfully compressed (Many Clouds by 5lbs) or had post-weights notched an RPR over 25.5f+ at least 6lbs higher than their GNOR:
Anibale Fly: +10lbs in both 2018 and 2019 derived from placing in the Gold Cup
Any Second: +8lbs in 2022 from his fine Bobbyjo win
Delta Work: +6lbs in 2022 from his Festival XC win
Ability-wise, going over 30f for the first time since a Novice, I believe it's within Galvin's realm but it's a leap of faith on his fitness as of now.
So it's too early for me. I won't be investing and I'm out
Still on the subject of the XC next week, 2 more of the Long List have their
final spin in it. First up …..
FRANCO DE
PORT (8yo, 11-03, 50/1)
Stat-profile: Unplaced – 3 fails (2 Golden) 1 Pedigree Plus
Likely Prep: XC
Upgrade potential: If wins or near-misses in XC, Minor Place Potential
It’s
difficult to get very excited about FdP, not least because it appears that the GN is
largely a convenient prep for his main target, Auteuil’s 30f Grand
Steeple-Chase de Paris in May (13L 3rd in it last year).
After
winning his first 2 chases, including a Gr1 over 17f, he’s winless in his last
15 (though a close 2nd to Longhouse Poet in last season’s Thyestes).
Entered for the Festival XC (7/1) and if he were to win or near-miss, he’d
remove 1 of his Golden Fails and, granting a little latitude over the remaining one, give himself on paper a chance of making the frame without troubling the winner unduly.
Pedigree is unremarkable from a GN perspective but he has some interesting linebreeding (to Wild Risk and Mill Reef) consistent with a minor place (e.g. Burrows Saint and Santini standard)
Ran creditably (4th 7L) in Gr 1 company in
December’s 3m Savills Chase (which has left him with a stiff-looking GNOR158) but it
looks a tall order next week at levels against higher-rated horses proven over
a trip at which he’s failed in his only attempt - indeed he’s 0 from 3 at
27.5~30f in Ireland (Irish GN) and France.
Anything’s
possible for a XC debutant and if he manages to upset Delta Work and others on
Wednesday I’ll think again.
OK, we’re
getting into that Sherlock Holmes’ territory of “…….whatever remains, however
improbable, must be the truth”.
So buckle
up. Here’s this year’s each-way long shot:
BACK ON
THE LASH (9yo, 10-00 [1 O/H], 100/1 NRNB) #60 in the Weights – would have
just made the cut last year
Stat-profile: Minor Place Potential – 3 fails (1 Golden but
questionable) 1 Pedigree Plus
Likely Prep: XC
Upgrade potential: Safe spin suffices but if wins or near-misses in
XC, Strong Place Potential
Ground Pref:
must have decent ground; no softer than GS
Parallel:
Alvarado
Part-owner
Harry Redknapp burbling about how much fun it would be just to have a runner will
prompt many to write off BOTL’s chances without a second thought. Even though at
GNOR140 he’ll be 1lb Out-of-the-Handicap, they’d be wrong to do so IMO.
The fact
is the 2023 GN is (save for The Big Breakaway) bereft of GN debutants carrying
<11.00 with winning or near-missing form at 30f, except for BOTL and 2 still-lower rated (OR132
Captain Cattistock and Secret Reprieve) that, even if they made the cut, would
be 9lbs O/H.
GNOR140 hasn’t
made the cut in a GN since 2015 but lowly-rated runners are not underperformers.
In the 3 GNs 2013~15, 28 ran with OR140 or lower (23.5% of runners), contributing 26.5% of the first 5 home, including 2013 winner Auroras Encore (OR137) at 66/1, Rare Bob (5th same year, OR140) and Alvarado (twice GN4th 2014 OR139 & 2015 OR140) - all had form at 27.5f+, as does BOTL.
BOTL’s a 3rd
season chaser with 12 chases to his name, he’s made a forte of 30f XC at Cheltenham,
winning 2 of 4 attempts (both handicaps). That included his last outing in
January, in which (OR137) he notched a career-best RPR146 and beat Delta
Work by 5L, receiving 16lbs from him. He’ll receive 18lbs from him at Aintree.
Made the
frame all 3 runs this season, notably including over conventional fences in November,
also at Cheltenham, when close 3rd 4L in the Class 1 27.5f chase,
that’s been a pointer to GN success down the years: Don’t Push It and Hello
Bud close 2nd and 3rd in it prior to winning and 5th
in the 2010 GN; Alvarado winning it prior to his GN4th in
2014; and Saint Are 3rd in it before his 2L 2nd to Many
Clouds in 2015 (same year, The Druids Nephew was close 2nd in
the Cheltenham race and tanking along in the lead at Aintree before an
agonising soft fall 5 out - the air turned blue Chez Molloy).
Pedigree Plus: Sire, Malinas, has sired a x2 4m+ winner (4 sons to try their hand) but, of particular interest, BOTL has a rare array of Damsires. DS 1,2 and
3, all having offspring that won G1 at 10f+. Only 27 runners in the GN 2013~22
(7.6%) had such an array but, including 5 of the 9 winners, a runner up and
a 5th. 3 other GN entries this year have the same (Cape Gentleman, Mister Coffey
and A Wave Of The Sea).
However,
chew on this: If you filter
those 27 GN runners for those that had form (making the frame) in a 29f+ chase,
the list shrinks to just 10 but only 7 different horses. They include all of those same runners that made the frame in the GN: the 5 winners, Auroras Encore, Rule The World (2nd Irish
GN), One For Arthur (Warwick Classic), Tiger Roll (4m Nov & XC), runner-up
Cause of Causes (4m Nov & XC) and 5th Rare Bob (4th Irish
GN). Only Minella Rocco ticked both boxes (4m Nov ch) and flopped in his (only)
GN run. Of all 2023 entries, only Back On The
Lash ticks both boxes.
His 1
questionable Golden Fail is that he’s yet to place or finish <10L in a 15+
runner race over conventional fences (only 1 attempt). But he has won a 15-runner
XC and, as such, he’s a one-off among all GN runners since 2013 so it’s debatable whether
a big field at Aintree might inconvenience him.
The Festival XC will make it 4 runs in the season, the last 31 days prior - fine, as is his Hurdles
best RPR131 but one concern is that he is a small horse. That said, so too was Tiger and negotiating 3.5m of Cheltenham's conventional fences is a stern test of jumping. His only failure to complete in chases came on Soft (PU) in last year's Festival XC. Indeed, a big positive is he's extremely game: “you wouldn’t get a tougher racehorse” (trainer Martin Keighley).
Obviously,
at level weights, it’s a massive ask even to run the likes of Delta Work close in
Wednesday’s XC, for which he’s 16/1. Soft ground would certainly kill any
chance. A safe spin will suffice for Minor Place Potential at Aintree but, if the going suits and he were to make the frame, that
100/1 would disappear in a flash.
Conclusion:
God
knowswhat the ground will be like for the GN but, being at mid-April,
the odds are that it will be a decent surface. With the likes of Dunboyne and probably Pencilfulloflead needing Soft, the better ground team could do with some bulking up and I’ve added ‘Appy ‘Arry’s boy at 100/1 NRNB e/w (5 places). Some tasty e/w value there IMHO and most other bookies have him at 50~66.
Just 2
more of the Long List to cover, Happygolucky and Death Duty, entered for Tuesday’s Ultima. Will do so after decs.
I'm feeling a bit happygolucky myself after all that. Have a good one folks!
Ultima
declarations out this morning and Death Duty will not be travelling over,
which is a shame as it would have been interesting to see if he could repeat
his fine 6th of last year and prove that he can complete a 3m+ chase
without demolishing a fence, which seems to have become his MO.
He’s not
without appeal e/w in the GN at 100/1, but as he's only 66/1 NRNB and has an Irish GN entry as
an alternative, there’s no hurry to make a decision.
So, parking
Death Duty for the moment, last on the Long List but certainly not least ………
HAPPYGOLUCKY
(9yo, 10-11, 40/1 NRNB) #22 in the Weights
Stat-profile: Minor Place Potential - 2 fails (0 Golden), 1 Plus (de
facto unexposed 2nd Season Chaser)
Final Prep: Ultima (14/1)
Prep Run Requirement: needs a competitive show in Ultima to confirm
fitness & Minor Place Potential
Ground pref: neither extreme - best chance at the trip likely on GS
Same stable
and GN jockey as The Last Samuri and, like him, HGL will have had 8 chases to
his name when lining up for the GN.
Technically
in his 3rd season chasing, he’s de facto a 2nd Season
Chaser as he missed the entire 21/22 season with a tendon injury.
That was
sustained after an impressive win (OR149) in Aintree’s Grade 3 25f Betway Hdcp
Chase on GN day on the Mildmay course in 2021, finishing like a train (“readily”
RP) - a race won by Saint Are a year prior to his GN debut in 2013. The way he ran that day suggested, though he handles and has won on Soft, he's very much at home on spring ground.
On return
to action 595 days later, he “ran a corker” (RP) when 4L 3rd (OR151)
behind L’Homme Presse in November’s 23.5f Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle on GS – the
form boosted by the runner-up (off 4lbs higher mark) beating Sounds Russian in
the Rowland Meyrick.
GNOR 152 looks
fair enough, giving him a workable 10-11, but he’s unexposed beyond 25f, and
with a 100% frame-making record in 4 Chases and 1 PtP at 23.5f+ (2 wins and furthest
defeat a 5.5L 2nd in the 25f Ultima in 2021 on Soft), he
could be progressive over further. Samuri hadn’t raced beyond 26f prior to his GN
2nd in 2016
Pedigree: though his Damside’s short of GN-winning quality, he’s
distantly related to Merigo (Eider and x2 Scot Nat winner, missing a
hat-trick by 0.75L) and is by an interesting sireJeremy (progeny record at c.4m: 1 run, 1 place) whose Dam is materially linebred to Wild Risk. Jeremy's also sire of fancied Corach Rambler and Ain't That A Shame who’ve both failed at 26f+ and have weak Hurdles RPRs - the market's latched on to the wrong Jezzas IMHO
On the
small side but a good jumper, gutsy and, apart from a disappointing run last
time out (possibly the “bounce” after a strong return from injury), consistent
- winning/near-missing (<5L) 9 of his 11 races.
Hurdles
best RPR139, the Ultima will make it 3 runs in the season, the last 32 days
prior – perfect.
A strong
run in the Ultima is important to confirm both his GN profile of Minor Place
Potential and that he’s fully competitive after his tendon injury.
Conclusion: As with
Back On The Lash, Hills are an outlier among bookies. The only one currently offering
NRNB but also best GN odds for HGL (40/1, compared to the general 33/1).
If HGL
wins or near-misses on Tuesday (and 14/1 looks value to me, as he’s got a 5lb
pull on 8/1 2nd fav Into Overdive based on their Rehearsal Chase form)
he’ll be a definite e/w for my decent ground GN team.
If he
flops on Tuesday, it may well be because his injury has taken a toll, in which case one would expect connections to scratch his GN entry.
So I’ll either
take 40s NRNB prior to Tuesday or back him in the Ultima at least in part as a
hedge .…….. or both if I’m feeling happygolucky.
Hope this run through of those Aintree candidates on my radar screen has been useful. Eyes down for a cracking Cheltenham Festival.
Just going to return to one of the 2 that made it through the initial screen but whom I pre-jettisoned from the Long List, in his case because of a poor run over the GN fences (more of that later).
Currently 50/1 for the GN, how he performs in tomorrow's 30f Nov Chase could have a material bearing on his GN stat-rating, so let's take a quick look at the profile of:
MISTER COFFEY (8yo, 10-04, 50/1 NRNB) #47 in the Weights - very likely to make the cut
Current stat-profile: Unplaced – 3 fails (1 Golden) 1 Pedigree Plus
Prep: tomorrow's 30f Nov Chase at Cheltenham (10/1 5th fav)
Upgrade potential: if makes the frame & <15L, Minor Place Potential / if wins or near misses, Winning Calibre
Ground pref: prefers GS buts acts on Soft and slower ground may assist jumping
2nd Season Chaser from Nicky Ferguson's yard with 7 chases to date. Still a maiden over fences (so was Rule The World when he took the 2016 GN of course) but x3 runner up (max. 5L) in 3 runs at 23.5f+.
As regards trip, the most notable was when beaten by 2.5L in the 26f Kim Muir on Soft at last year's Festival (OR137) - notably a mistake at the last costing him any chance. However, the form of that race was rank (first win by any of the 13 finishers coming at the 40th time of asking in a Beginners Chase on Saturday [Ain't That A Shame])
A better yardstick may be his last run in which, though beaten fav, was staying-on close 2nd (OR140), notching a career-high RPR147. GNOR145 looks a tad stiff against that and, on collateral form from that run, gives him a fair bit to find with Mr Incredible but it does translate to a featherweight 10-04.
Pedigree Plus: shares Tiger Roll's sire (Derby-winner Authorized) but, more significantly for the model's rating (and as per the Back On The Lash write-up above), he's one of the 4 entries this year with an array of Damsires 1~3 that produced a G1 winner at 10f+ on the flat. If he were to make the frame in the 30f Nov Chase tomorrow, he'd join BOTL in the rare and highly GN-starred club of having both such an array and form at 29f+.
His current Golden Fail is no requisite form in a Graded hurdle or chase. But, given only 10-04 on his back at Aintree, he simply needs to make the first 3 by <15L in tomorrow's Grade 2 [10 declared] to tick that box. That would elevate his GN stat-rating to Minor Place Potential and, unlikely though it is at level weights (despite the experienced Derek O'Connor piloting), a win or near-miss would make him Winning Calibre....... oh for a crystal ball.
That said, 2 reservations remain, aside from his trainer's dismal record in GNs:
- as noted in the Gaillard Du Mesnil review, the 30f Nov Chase has a poor record when it comes to horses making the frame and running in a National the following month. It's typically a gruelling race and doubtless will be again tomorrow on Soft ground. There is, at least, an extra week's recovery time this year. - that 58L 16th in the Topham. Reviewing all of Mr C's chases to date, it's easy to see why he struggled. He's a big, scopey chaser but simply hasn't looked a natural jumper of a fence (some horses are, some aren't) - he gets over them but is prone to guess and make costly blunders, as when literally demolishing an open ditch at Sandown a year ago. A smaller horse with more nimble footwork (like Tiger Roll and Magic Of Light), can get away with that in a GN but 2 bad mistakes (at The Chair [3rd fence] and Bechers [10th]) cost Mr C any sort of chance in the Topham, for which he was 5/1 fav. His jumping has been better in 2 outings this season and, of course, he'll be schooled over spruce at home prior to 15 April, but tomorrow's test will be revealing and, with stamina stretched, his sternest yet. As things stand, it requires a leap of faith to see him negotiating 2 circuits of the GN course smoothly enough to figure at the business end, especially if at pace on GS but things may look very different come 5.40pm tomorrow.
Conclusion: a hedging bet in tomorrow's race could be the order of the day
F**k me, the RP "Predictor" makes Back On The Lash the winner in Wednesday's XC. I'd be ecstatic having taken the 100/1 e/w NRNB for the GN but, realistically, that has to be total bo££ox given the probably Soft or worse going. A safe spin on Wed and some nice April sunshine on Merseyside shall suffice.
F**k me, the RP "Predictor" makes Back On The Lash the winner in Wednesday's XC. I'd be ecstatic having taken the 100/1 e/w NRNB for the GN but, realistically, that has to be total bo££ox given the probably Soft or worse going. A safe spin on Wed and some nice April sunshine on Merseyside shall suffice.
F**k me, the RP "Predictor" makes Back On The Lash the winner in Wednesday's XC. I'd be ecstatic having taken the 100/1 e/w NRNB for the GN but, realistically, that has to be total bo££ox given the probably Soft or worse going. A safe spin on Wed and some nice April sunshine on Merseyside shall suffice.
I couldn't find anything better than 66/1
William Hill are the only offering NRNB and still offer him at 100s. Does need decent ground.
Sorry to interrupt the main focus of attention obviously on Prestbury Park, but with decs out for the Kim Muir, a recap on those my model reckons are "definites" to put on the GN betting slip e/w (excluding any subjective filtering by me), providing a safe spin this week:
On Any Ground:
[win] THE BIG BREAKAWAY 33/1 (16/1 for the Ultima at 2.50pm) [win] MR INCREDIBLE 16/1 (11/2 fav for the Kim Muir on Thursday)
PLUS: On Good or GS:
[place] BACK ON THE LASH 100/1 NRNB (may or may not make the cut) (16/1 for XC tomorrow)
On Soft or Heavy:
[win] DUNBOYNE 50/1 (10/1 for the Kim Muir on Thursday) [place] PENCILFULLOFLEAD 40/1
Possible additions, as outlined in the posts above, if they run well this week: Today: Happygolucky, Mister Coffey Tomorrow: Galvin, Delta Work, Franco De Port Friday: Conflated
"Behind, mistake 9th, struggling after, tailed off when pulled up before last"
Could have been written about The Big Breakaway's run in the Ultima. In fact, it was written about Don't Push It's final prep (also at the Festival) before winning the 2010 GN. Similarly, Mon Mome was beaten 57L and Auroras Encore 53L in their last runs prior to winning the 2009 and 2013 GNs. And Pleasant Company’s entire season’s record read 14th and PU before he was beaten by a Head in the 2018 GN.
Obviously it would have been reassuring to see him go better but an apparently shite prep is not the end of the world. So long as he's physically OK (has suffered with sore shins in the past - maybe a recurrence or maybe the tacky ground was just not his cup of tea, as it wasn't for some others), TBB's PU today makes no difference to my model's assessment of his GN stat-rating, which was already strong enough and remains Winning Calibre.
And naturally, it would have been nice to back him now at 50s rather than fall foul of the Law Of Sod and have the money already down at 33s but, if it all comes back plus profit, so what?
As for others, with something to prove stats-wise, Happygolucky's defeat by 33L didn’t cut it.
Corach Rambler's win was really impressive but, with a inadequate hurdles RPR and a failure to get home over 29f on his CV (plus 2 other stat test fails), made no difference to his GN stat-rating which suggests he’s unlikely to figure at the business end in a GN.
Gaillard Du Mesnil’s fine staying on winconfirmed his GN stat-rating at Minor Place Potential but at 8/1 there's no incentive to back him unless there are no better alternatives. In any event, Willie's said both Irish and Aintree GNs may come too soon.
Mister Coffey, benefitting from the 2nd favourite and clear leader departing at the 2nd last, scraped the minimum (placed 3rd 15L) required also to rate Minor Place Potential at Aintree. But it’s doubtful that he truly saw out the 30f today and he was still prone to guess at the odd fence, echoing his Topham woes.
In any event, the record of frame-makers in today’s race in follow-up Nationals is not encouraging, so unlikely either will figure on my slip.
Tomorrow’s XC more likely to throw up an addition to the team - Delta Work, Galvin and Franco De Port the possibles. Back On The Lash already backed in the event of a decent surface at Aintree.
Soft ground reported on the XC course will suit Delta Work and debutant Franco De Port. Galvin probably at his best on better but handles Soft and is reported to have "schooled brilliantly over the banks" - exactly what Elliott said of Delta Work a year ago prior to him turning over Tiger. As he had then over the reigning champ, today Galvin has the weight advantage over him at levels, rating 7lbs higher in the handicap.
So not impossible we see the XC baton pass once again among Elliott’s top stayers.
And, from my perspective, the GN-betting nightmare scenario of all 3 fighting out a close finish and each elevating their stat-rating to a varying shade of Green Light for being on the GN team-sheet is very much on.
With the gulf between the class horses and the handicappers in the GN card looking particularly stark this year, and with the winner of this (assuming it has a GN entry - there are 7 that do!) sure to see their GN odds crushed as a result, my money is now down on DELTA WORK (20/1) and GALVIN (33/1) e/w for Aintree, since both are intended runners. Also had a tactical bet on Franco De Port today, as 8/1 represents good value IMHO, but even if winning today, he would only be a candidate for me on Soft ground at Aintree and, even then, only for a Minor Place. At least Delta Work was competitive on last year's quickish GS and the current 20s is just about a viable e/w proposition.
There are runners in the Kim Muir tomorrow (other than Mr Incredible - already backed) that could enter the picture but all appear to require Softer ground. More anon.
Glad I got money down pre-race yesterday. Terrific win for DELTA WORK in the XC notching RPR168 - his best for 3 years since his Grade 1 winning days - strongly boosts his GN stat-rating to Winning Calibre on any ground and probably NAP if it comes up Soft, though Dunboyne is a rival for that call (see below), on 15 April.
An extra week's recovery compared to last year, 1lb lower mark but more importantly 5lbs less on his back (11-04 - less than carried by 4 of the last 12 winners, including Tiger in 2019), I'm a little surprised his odds weren't cut more from 20s. 14/1 still represents a smidgeon of e/w value IMHO and a steal if the ground is appreciably slower than last year.
Despite having a 7lb pull with Delta, it was an impressive close 2nd (2.5L) from XC-debutant GALVIN on ground that strongly favoured his stablemate - Elliott was clear that he was also less "hard fit" that Delta.
With 11-11 to carry, notching RPR166 wasn't quite enough to make him more than Minor Place Potential but chances are the ground should be more in his favour in 4 weeks time and, with few strong candidates that relish the quickest Good-to-Soft that Aintree will serve up, I'm very happy to have him on board at 33s (now best price 20s with Bob's Mob).
Both definitely heading to the GN, if all's well with them.
FRANCO DE PORT confirmed reservations about extreme trips, barely getting home in 3rd, though some jumping issues cost him. I'd be surprised if he runs in the GN, given his main target has been the 30f French GN in May but, even if he does, he won't be on my slip.
Glad that BACK ON THE LASH was PU'd early, as last year, hating the Soft ground. Pushed out by some but, ironically, cut to 66s by the only NRNB bookie currently (WH) presumably having attracted plenty of e/w money in anticipation of weight and likely ground being much more favourable for him at Aintree.
None of the other 3 XC runners yesterday with GN entries (Gin On Lime, Mortal and, despite a bold show until late, Francky Du Berlais) have the right profiles for the big one IMHO.
Today's focus for me will be on the Kim Muir.
GN bet already placed (for better or ill) on MR INCREDIBLE (13/2 today) and it will be a big test of his temperament and whether Patrick Mullins has done the trick with him as pilot and shrink. A safe spin will suffice but if he does the business convincingly this afternoon, expect him to rival and probably surpass Corach Rambler for GN favouritism. DUNBOYNE has a strong GN profile (the strongest GN Pedigree-profile of all this year) and only needs a safe spin to confirm it. But needs Soft ground. He'll get that this afternoon (7/1) and, being 50s currently for the GN, I've taken the price for Aintree NRNB and am taking the gamble on his tendency to jump right when under pressure. It will be interesting to see riding tactics under the highly experienced Jamie Codd. Elliott has said he thinks the GN is "made for" Dunboyne (I agree) but he, like virtually all the Irish, also has entries for the Fairyhouse marathon 5 days earlier. It could be that prospective going decides where he runs - hence NRNB essential IMO. PUNITIVE (28/1 today, 66/1 for Aintree) also has an interesting GN profile but, even if he makes the cut (touch and go), will be at least 3lbs out of the handicap on 15 April. RAPPER (20/1, 100/1) a course and distance winner will like the ground and could go well today but doesn't have a Plus Factor to make him a contender at Aintree. CAPTAIN CATTISTOCK (28/1, 150/1) will be 10lbs+ O/H in the unlikely event he makes the GN cut.
Peanuts is Dunboyne guaranteed a run? I remember seeing he was number 59 (or somewhere around there)
Not guaranteed but should just make the cut if last year’s a guide (#60 at this stage was the 40th at decs). He’s one of 4 on OR141 (#55-58), though Our Power’s mark has gone up to 147 since the weights were allotted, so he’d be top of those 4 at #55. That makes Dunboyne #56 at best but he could drop to #57 or 58 if his mark is dropped after today. We’ll see. Is entered for the Irish GN as well, as so many are.
No shenanigans from MR INCREDIBLE at the start. Held up at the rear, he travelled and jumped very nicely and made up ground in leaps and bounds from the home bend (from 10th to 3rd), appearing to be the winner jumping the last. But something then prompted him to wander towards the stands, costing him ground and momentum, before he ran on again and closed to 5.75L 3rd. We know the tank wasn't empty because he'd finished very strongly on testing ground over 29f at Warwick. Was it another show of temperament and an attempt to pull himself up? Seems unlikely because he ran on again with strong urging but just hands and heels. Who knows but my theory FWIW is that he may have been distracted by the urgings of the grooms of the leading horses - particularly audible for the last race of the day with the stands emptier. Often they'll also charge up the all-weather shoot in front of the stands. Something seemed to catch his eye and his attention. In any event, we know 3 things: his "thinking" is a risk, he appears to have a big tank and a late change of gear. On paper, it was a decent prep and stat-rating wise, there's no change. He has a GN Winning Calibre profile on any ground, though one suspects Soft would better play to his strengths, particularly if tactics at Aintree are to be held up off the pace. Cut from 16s to 12~14/1, I'm happy to take the chance on his mindset though I can easily picture him, in his own unique way, snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, a la Clan Royal or Devon Loch, to make for yet one more bizarre GN for the annals.
Without the same late turn of foot, DUNBOYNE (also held up) was a nicely staying-on 13L 4th. The ground was much more GS than Soft and he was occasionally pushed along, suggesting that Soft ground at Aintree is indeed a must. Best news of all, he jumped straight and, for the most part, well. An encouraging prep that confirms his GN Winning Calibre profileon Soft and happy to have him at 50s (cut to 33s by the only NRNB bookie, though still available at 50s antepost).
None of yesterday's other runners with GN entries are of interest from my model's persepctive.
So to today and 2 races with GN entries that are, potentially:
In the Gold Cup, CONFLATED (18/1 today and GN 20/1 NRNB) would have to win or finish <10L to elevate his GN stat-rating to a backable standard. But the noises from Elliott cast doubt over whether he'll line up for the GN. NOBLE YEATS could win today and still not elevate his stat-rating to suggest he'll do a Tiger at Aintree, though the market would surely assume him to be a shoo in. HEWICK (66/1 today, GN 25/1) loves Good ground and would have to win or near-miss today despite a far from ideal surface to give his stat-rating the required boost.
Meanwhile, a 26f chase at Down Royal, quietly favoured by some Irish trainers as a later GN prep (if only as a fall back for other plans having failed) - Nil Desperandum won and was close 2nd in it prior to his GN6th and 4th in 2005 & 06 - sees LONGHOUSE POET (didn't and won't get the GN trip IMHO), ROI MAGE (zero interest) and FARCLAS run, as usual, on testing ground (Soft, Heavy places).
Notably, PENCILFULLOFLEAD was declared for the race and made fav but is a Non-Runner - waiting to hear why.
FARCLAS (11/2 today, GN 66/1)a fine 5th as a 7yo in the 2021 GN, has had a frustrating injury-interrupted time since (only 4 runs and 1 completion) and has his fitness to prove but if he were to do so with a win or near-miss today, on his stats, he'd give himself an outside chance of repeating a Minor Place at Aintree.
Thanks for all this info Peanuts. This is the first time I have followed this thread so how does it work at the end? Do you do some kind of big sum up just before the GN itself?
Thanks for all this info Peanuts. This is the first time I have followed this thread so how does it work at the end? Do you do some kind of big sum up just before the GN itself?
Yep and if any of the suggested punts don't come in, Peanuts personally pays us all our stakes back.
Thanks for all this info Peanuts. This is the first time I have followed this thread so how does it work at the end? Do you do some kind of big sum up just before the GN itself?
Hope it's been of interest. I don't usually have any unpickled brain cells remaining to do a big sum up tbh but certainly a final list of the model's top ratings - one on Good-to-Soft, another on Soft. All the explanations for those ratings are already set out one by one. Tricky one this year though.
Comments
By popular request ……
DELTA WORK (10yo, 11-04, 20/1)
Current Stat-profile: Place Potential - 3 fails (2 Golden but marginal), 2 Pedigree Pluses
Change potential: If winning or near-missing XC, Winning Calibre
Ground pref: to win, Softer the better
Despite being a tad one-paced and 22L adrift, his 3rd last April under 11-09, 24 days after seizing Tiger’s XC Crown, was a fine run – especially as he found himself well back and having to negotiate fallers and a couple of troublesome loose horses at times. He certainly got the trip IMO but softer ground to take the sting out of others’ finish would have suited him as he just couldn’t go with the turbo-charged finish of the front 2 (Any Second Now flew home from the 2nd last).
1st and 2nd both clobbered by the handicapper, though we certainly shouldn’t write off them off (particularly favourite Noble Yeats), and DW handed 1lb lower GNOR, he’s set to carry a winnable-with 11-04.
But has he missed his chance?
- Sire Network and Damsire Video Rock is an identical combo to Saint Are (2L 2nd and 8L 3rd in GN 2015 and 17)
- The electric combo of Wild Risk and Bold Ruler on the damside, shared by Rule The World, One For Arthur, Tiger Roll and Minella Times, Saint Are, Magic Of Light and Rathvinden (50% of winners and near-missers from only 11% of all runners)
As he’s more or less Evens to take the XC, 20/1 for the GN seems fair enough at this juncture and he's definitely also one for the weekend short-list.
More hooch required.
Given the possibility of both dotting the i and crossing the t for the GN in next week's XC, this morning I've put a sharper pencil over both and, aside from more precise ground preferences relevant particularly for Delta (handles any ground but best winning chance clearly these days is on Soft and preference is probably for better ground for Galvin - which may also dictate their order of finishing next week), I should really have been more precise about what Galvin needs to show next week, to have a chance of being seriously in the mix off GNOR166 and 11-11 at Aintree.
Effectively, he's got to win the XC and up his best RPR (currently 168) by at least matching Tiger's RPR171 of 2019, to give him a 5lb+ best RPR vs GNOR.
My model doesn't employ an RPR as a negative test (it's a reference for one of the Minor Pluses), since prior races are often retrospectively adjusted up for winners, so the data-set isn't 100% reliable. BUT, the fact is that every horse to make the frame with >11-06 on its back in a "modern" GN since 2013 either had its GNOR meaningfully compressed (Many Clouds by 5lbs) or had post-weights notched an RPR over 25.5f+ at least 6lbs higher than their GNOR:
- Anibale Fly: +10lbs in both 2018 and 2019 derived from placing in the Gold Cup
- Any Second: +8lbs in 2022 from his fine Bobbyjo win
- Delta Work: +6lbs in 2022 from his Festival XC win
Ability-wise, going over 30f for the first time since a Novice, I believe it's within Galvin's realm but it's a leap of faith on his fitness as of now.So it's too early for me. I won't be investing and I'm out
Still on the subject of the XC next week, 2 more of the Long List have their final spin in it. First up …..
FRANCO DE PORT (8yo, 11-03, 50/1)
Stat-profile: Unplaced – 3 fails (2 Golden) 1 Pedigree Plus
Likely Prep: XC
Upgrade potential: If wins or near-misses in XC, Minor Place Potential
It’s difficult to get very excited about FdP, not least because it appears that the GN is largely a convenient prep for his main target, Auteuil’s 30f Grand Steeple-Chase de Paris in May (13L 3rd in it last year).
After winning his first 2 chases, including a Gr1 over 17f, he’s winless in his last 15 (though a close 2nd to Longhouse Poet in last season’s Thyestes).
Entered for the Festival XC (7/1) and if he were to win or near-miss, he’d remove 1 of his Golden Fails and, granting a little latitude over the remaining one, give himself on paper a chance of making the frame without troubling the winner unduly.
Pedigree is unremarkable from a GN perspective but he has some interesting linebreeding (to Wild Risk and Mill Reef) consistent with a minor place (e.g. Burrows Saint and Santini standard)
Ran creditably (4th 7L) in Gr 1 company in December’s 3m Savills Chase (which has left him with a stiff-looking GNOR158) but it looks a tall order next week at levels against higher-rated horses proven over a trip at which he’s failed in his only attempt - indeed he’s 0 from 3 at 27.5~30f in Ireland (Irish GN) and France.
Anything’s possible for a XC debutant and if he manages to upset Delta Work and others on Wednesday I’ll think again.
Otherwise, it’s Au Revoir from me.
OK, we’re getting into that Sherlock Holmes’ territory of “…….whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth”.
So buckle up. Here’s this year’s each-way long shot:
BACK ON THE LASH (9yo, 10-00 [1 O/H], 100/1 NRNB) #60 in the Weights – would have just made the cut last year
Stat-profile: Minor Place Potential – 3 fails (1 Golden but questionable) 1 Pedigree Plus
Likely Prep: XC
Upgrade potential: Safe spin suffices but if wins or near-misses in XC, Strong Place Potential
Ground Pref: must have decent ground; no softer than GS
Parallel: Alvarado
Part-owner Harry Redknapp burbling about how much fun it would be just to have a runner will prompt many to write off BOTL’s chances without a second thought. Even though at GNOR140 he’ll be 1lb Out-of-the-Handicap, they’d be wrong to do so IMO.
The fact is the 2023 GN is (save for The Big Breakaway) bereft of GN debutants carrying <11.00 with winning or near-missing form at 30f, except for BOTL and 2 still-lower rated (OR132 Captain Cattistock and Secret Reprieve) that, even if they made the cut, would be 9lbs O/H.
Conclusion: God knows what the ground will be like for the GN but, being at mid-April, the odds are that it will be a decent surface. With the likes of Dunboyne and probably Pencilfulloflead needing Soft, the better ground team could do with some bulking up and I’ve added ‘Appy ‘Arry’s boy at 100/1 NRNB e/w (5 places). Some tasty e/w value there IMHO and most other bookies have him at 50~66.
Just 2 more of the Long List to cover, Happygolucky and Death Duty, entered for Tuesday’s Ultima. Will do so after decs.
I'm feeling a bit happygolucky myself after all that. Have a good one folks!
COYR
Thanks Peanuts for all the posts, been liking them along the way.
Fingers crossed for a sunny April.
Ultima declarations out this morning and Death Duty will not be travelling over, which is a shame as it would have been interesting to see if he could repeat his fine 6th of last year and prove that he can complete a 3m+ chase without demolishing a fence, which seems to have become his MO.
He’s not without appeal e/w in the GN at 100/1, but as he's only 66/1 NRNB and has an Irish GN entry as an alternative, there’s no hurry to make a decision.
So, parking Death Duty for the moment, last on the Long List but certainly not least ………
HAPPYGOLUCKY (9yo, 10-11, 40/1 NRNB) #22 in the Weights
Stat-profile: Minor Place Potential - 2 fails (0 Golden), 1 Plus (de facto unexposed 2nd Season Chaser)
Final Prep: Ultima (14/1)
Prep Run Requirement: needs a competitive show in Ultima to confirm fitness & Minor Place Potential
Ground pref: neither extreme - best chance at the trip likely on GS
Conclusion: As with Back On The Lash, Hills are an outlier among bookies. The only one currently offering NRNB but also best GN odds for HGL (40/1, compared to the general 33/1).
If HGL wins or near-misses on Tuesday (and 14/1 looks value to me, as he’s got a 5lb pull on 8/1 2nd fav Into Overdive based on their Rehearsal Chase form) he’ll be a definite e/w for my decent ground GN team.
If he flops on Tuesday, it may well be because his injury has taken a toll, in which case one would expect connections to scratch his GN entry.
So I’ll either take 40s NRNB prior to Tuesday or back him in the Ultima at least in part as a hedge .…….. or both if I’m feeling happygolucky.
Hope this run through of those Aintree candidates on my radar screen has been useful. Eyes down for a cracking Cheltenham Festival.
Just going to return to one of the 2 that made it through the initial screen but whom I pre-jettisoned from the Long List, in his case because of a poor run over the GN fences (more of that later).
Currently 50/1 for the GN, how he performs in tomorrow's 30f Nov Chase could have a material bearing on his GN stat-rating, so let's take a quick look at the profile of:
MISTER COFFEY (8yo, 10-04, 50/1 NRNB) #47 in the Weights - very likely to make the cut
Current stat-profile: Unplaced – 3 fails (1 Golden) 1 Pedigree Plus
Prep: tomorrow's 30f Nov Chase at Cheltenham (10/1 5th fav)
Upgrade potential: if makes the frame & <15L, Minor Place Potential / if wins or near misses, Winning Calibre
Ground pref: prefers GS buts acts on Soft and slower ground may assist jumping
- 2nd Season Chaser from Nicky Ferguson's yard with 7 chases to date. Still a maiden over fences (so was Rule The World when he took the 2016 GN of course) but x3 runner up (max. 5L) in 3 runs at 23.5f+.
- As regards trip, the most notable was when beaten by 2.5L in the 26f Kim Muir on Soft at last year's Festival (OR137) - notably a mistake at the last costing him any chance. However, the form of that race was rank (first win by any of the 13 finishers coming at the 40th time of asking in a Beginners Chase on Saturday [Ain't That A Shame])
- A better yardstick may be his last run in which, though beaten fav, was staying-on close 2nd (OR140), notching a career-high RPR147. GNOR145 looks a tad stiff against that and, on collateral form from that run, gives him a fair bit to find with Mr Incredible but it does translate to a featherweight 10-04.
- Pedigree Plus: shares Tiger Roll's sire (Derby-winner Authorized) but, more significantly for the model's rating (and as per the Back On The Lash write-up above), he's one of the 4 entries this year with an array of Damsires 1~3 that produced a G1 winner at 10f+ on the flat. If he were to make the frame in the 30f Nov Chase tomorrow, he'd join BOTL in the rare and highly GN-starred club of having both such an array and form at 29f+.
- His current Golden Fail is no requisite form in a Graded hurdle or chase. But, given only 10-04 on his back at Aintree, he simply needs to make the first 3 by <15L in tomorrow's Grade 2 [10 declared] to tick that box. That would elevate his GN stat-rating to Minor Place Potential and, unlikely though it is at level weights (despite the experienced Derek O'Connor piloting), a win or near-miss would make him Winning Calibre....... oh for a crystal ball.
- That said, 2 reservations remain, aside from his trainer's dismal record in GNs:
- as noted in the Gaillard Du Mesnil review, the 30f Nov Chase has a poor record when it comes to horses making the frame and running in a National the following month. It's typically a gruelling race and doubtless will be again tomorrow on Soft ground. There is, at least, an extra week's recovery time this year.- that 58L 16th in the Topham. Reviewing all of Mr C's chases to date, it's easy to see why he struggled. He's a big, scopey chaser but simply hasn't looked a natural jumper of a fence (some horses are, some aren't) - he gets over them but is prone to guess and make costly blunders, as when literally demolishing an open ditch at Sandown a year ago. A smaller horse with more nimble footwork (like Tiger Roll and Magic Of Light), can get away with that in a GN but 2 bad mistakes (at The Chair [3rd fence] and Bechers [10th]) cost Mr C any sort of chance in the Topham, for which he was 5/1 fav.
His jumping has been better in 2 outings this season and, of course, he'll be schooled over spruce at home prior to 15 April, but tomorrow's test will be revealing and, with stamina stretched, his sternest yet. As things stand, it requires a leap of faith to see him negotiating 2 circuits of the GN course smoothly enough to figure at the business end, especially if at pace on GS but things may look very different come 5.40pm tomorrow.
Conclusion: a hedging bet in tomorrow's race could be the order of the day
F**k me, the RP "Predictor" makes Back On The Lash the winner in Wednesday's XC.
I'd be ecstatic having taken the 100/1 e/w NRNB for the GN but, realistically, that has to be total bo££ox given the probably Soft or worse going.
A safe spin on Wed and some nice April sunshine on Merseyside shall suffice.
Does need decent ground.
On Any Ground:
[win] THE BIG BREAKAWAY 33/1 (16/1 for the Ultima at 2.50pm)
[win] MR INCREDIBLE 16/1 (11/2 fav for the Kim Muir on Thursday)
PLUS:
On Good or GS:
[place] BACK ON THE LASH 100/1 NRNB (may or may not make the cut) (16/1 for XC tomorrow)
On Soft or Heavy:
[win] DUNBOYNE 50/1 (10/1 for the Kim Muir on Thursday)
[place] PENCILFULLOFLEAD 40/1
Possible additions, as outlined in the posts above, if they run well this week:
Today: Happygolucky, Mister Coffey
Tomorrow: Galvin, Delta Work, Franco De Port
Friday: Conflated
No sweat. Mon Mome went off at 100/1
Could have been written about The Big Breakaway's run in the Ultima. In fact, it was written about Don't Push It's final prep (also at the Festival) before winning the 2010 GN.
Similarly, Mon Mome was beaten 57L and Auroras Encore 53L in their last runs prior to winning the 2009 and 2013 GNs. And Pleasant Company’s entire season’s record read 14th and PU before he was beaten by a Head in the 2018 GN.
Obviously it would have been reassuring to see him go better but an apparently shite prep is not the end of the world.
So long as he's physically OK (has suffered with sore shins in the past - maybe a recurrence or maybe the tacky ground was just not his cup of tea, as it wasn't for some others), TBB's PU today makes no difference to my model's assessment of his GN stat-rating, which was already strong enough and remains Winning Calibre.
And naturally, it would have been nice to back him now at 50s rather than fall foul of the Law Of Sod and have the money already down at 33s but, if it all comes back plus profit, so what?
As for others, with something to prove stats-wise, Happygolucky's defeat by 33L didn’t cut it.
Corach Rambler's win was really impressive but, with a inadequate hurdles RPR and a failure to get home over 29f on his CV (plus 2 other stat test fails), made no difference to his GN stat-rating which suggests he’s unlikely to figure at the business end in a GN.
Gaillard Du Mesnil’s fine staying on win confirmed his GN stat-rating at Minor Place Potential but at 8/1 there's no incentive to back him unless there are no better alternatives.
In any event, Willie's said both Irish and Aintree GNs may come too soon.
Mister Coffey, benefitting from the 2nd favourite and clear leader departing at the 2nd last, scraped the minimum (placed 3rd 15L) required also to rate Minor Place Potential at Aintree. But it’s doubtful that he truly saw out the 30f today and he was still prone to guess at the odd fence, echoing his Topham woes.
Tomorrow’s XC more likely to throw up an addition to the team - Delta Work, Galvin and Franco De Port the possibles. Back On The Lash already backed in the event of a decent surface at Aintree.
Soft ground reported on the XC course will suit Delta Work and debutant Franco De Port.
Galvin probably at his best on better but handles Soft and is reported to have "schooled brilliantly over the banks" - exactly what Elliott said of Delta Work a year ago prior to him turning over Tiger. As he had then over the reigning champ, today Galvin has the weight advantage over him at levels, rating 7lbs higher in the handicap.
So not impossible we see the XC baton pass once again among Elliott’s top stayers.
And, from my perspective, the GN-betting nightmare scenario of all 3 fighting out a close finish and each elevating their stat-rating to a varying shade of Green Light for being on the GN team-sheet is very much on.
With the gulf between the class horses and the handicappers in the GN card looking particularly stark this year, and with the winner of this (assuming it has a GN entry - there are 7 that do!) sure to see their GN odds crushed as a result, my money is now down on DELTA WORK (20/1) and GALVIN (33/1) e/w for Aintree, since both are intended runners.
Also had a tactical bet on Franco De Port today, as 8/1 represents good value IMHO, but even if winning today, he would only be a candidate for me on Soft ground at Aintree and, even then, only for a Minor Place.
At least Delta Work was competitive on last year's quickish GS and the current 20s is just about a viable e/w proposition.
There are runners in the Kim Muir tomorrow (other than Mr Incredible - already backed) that could enter the picture but all appear to require Softer ground. More anon.
Glad I got money down pre-race yesterday. Terrific win for DELTA WORK in the XC notching RPR168 - his best for 3 years since his Grade 1 winning days - strongly boosts his GN stat-rating to Winning Calibre on any ground and probably NAP if it comes up Soft, though Dunboyne is a rival for that call (see below), on 15 April.
An extra week's recovery compared to last year, 1lb lower mark but more importantly 5lbs less on his back (11-04 - less than carried by 4 of the last 12 winners, including Tiger in 2019), I'm a little surprised his odds weren't cut more from 20s. 14/1 still represents a smidgeon of e/w value IMHO and a steal if the ground is appreciably slower than last year.
Despite having a 7lb pull with Delta, it was an impressive close 2nd (2.5L) from XC-debutant GALVIN on ground that strongly favoured his stablemate - Elliott was clear that he was also less "hard fit" that Delta.
With 11-11 to carry, notching RPR166 wasn't quite enough to make him more than Minor Place Potential but chances are the ground should be more in his favour in 4 weeks time and, with few strong candidates that relish the quickest Good-to-Soft that Aintree will serve up, I'm very happy to have him on board at 33s (now best price 20s with Bob's Mob).
Both definitely heading to the GN, if all's well with them.
FRANCO DE PORT confirmed reservations about extreme trips, barely getting home in 3rd, though some jumping issues cost him. I'd be surprised if he runs in the GN, given his main target has been the 30f French GN in May but, even if he does, he won't be on my slip.
Glad that BACK ON THE LASH was PU'd early, as last year, hating the Soft ground. Pushed out by some but, ironically, cut to 66s by the only NRNB bookie currently (WH) presumably having attracted plenty of e/w money in anticipation of weight and likely ground being much more favourable for him at Aintree.
None of the other 3 XC runners yesterday with GN entries (Gin On Lime, Mortal and, despite a bold show until late, Francky Du Berlais) have the right profiles for the big one IMHO.
Today's focus for me will be on the Kim Muir.
GN bet already placed (for better or ill) on MR INCREDIBLE (13/2 today) and it will be a big test of his temperament and whether Patrick Mullins has done the trick with him as pilot and shrink. A safe spin will suffice but if he does the business convincingly this afternoon, expect him to rival and probably surpass Corach Rambler for GN favouritism.
DUNBOYNE has a strong GN profile (the strongest GN Pedigree-profile of all this year) and only needs a safe spin to confirm it. But needs Soft ground. He'll get that this afternoon (7/1) and, being 50s currently for the GN, I've taken the price for Aintree NRNB and am taking the gamble on his tendency to jump right when under pressure. It will be interesting to see riding tactics under the highly experienced Jamie Codd.
Elliott has said he thinks the GN is "made for" Dunboyne (I agree) but he, like virtually all the Irish, also has entries for the Fairyhouse marathon 5 days earlier. It could be that prospective going decides where he runs - hence NRNB essential IMO.
PUNITIVE (28/1 today, 66/1 for Aintree) also has an interesting GN profile but, even if he makes the cut (touch and go), will be at least 3lbs out of the handicap on 15 April.
RAPPER (20/1, 100/1) a course and distance winner will like the ground and could go well today but doesn't have a Plus Factor to make him a contender at Aintree.
CAPTAIN CATTISTOCK (28/1, 150/1) will be 10lbs+ O/H in the unlikely event he makes the GN cut.
Enjoy
Mr Incredible declared for Saturday's Midlands National at Uttoxeter.
Hedging bets in case of an RR today?
He’s one of 4 on OR141 (#55-58), though Our Power’s mark has gone up to 147 since the weights were allotted, so he’d be top of those 4 at #55. That makes Dunboyne #56 at best but he could drop to #57 or 58 if his mark is dropped after today. We’ll see.
Is entered for the Irish GN as well, as so many are.
Funny old finish to that Kim Muir.
No shenanigans from MR INCREDIBLE at the start. Held up at the rear, he travelled and jumped very nicely and made up ground in leaps and bounds from the home bend (from 10th to 3rd), appearing to be the winner jumping the last.
But something then prompted him to wander towards the stands, costing him ground and momentum, before he ran on again and closed to 5.75L 3rd.
We know the tank wasn't empty because he'd finished very strongly on testing ground over 29f at Warwick.
Was it another show of temperament and an attempt to pull himself up? Seems unlikely because he ran on again with strong urging but just hands and heels.
Who knows but my theory FWIW is that he may have been distracted by the urgings of the grooms of the leading horses - particularly audible for the last race of the day with the stands emptier. Often they'll also charge up the all-weather shoot in front of the stands. Something seemed to catch his eye and his attention.
In any event, we know 3 things: his "thinking" is a risk, he appears to have a big tank and a late change of gear.
On paper, it was a decent prep and stat-rating wise, there's no change. He has a GN Winning Calibre profile on any ground, though one suspects Soft would better play to his strengths, particularly if tactics at Aintree are to be held up off the pace.
Cut from 16s to 12~14/1, I'm happy to take the chance on his mindset though I can easily picture him, in his own unique way, snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, a la Clan Royal or Devon Loch, to make for yet one more bizarre GN for the annals.
Without the same late turn of foot, DUNBOYNE (also held up) was a nicely staying-on 13L 4th. The ground was much more GS than Soft and he was occasionally pushed along, suggesting that Soft ground at Aintree is indeed a must.
Best news of all, he jumped straight and, for the most part, well.
An encouraging prep that confirms his GN Winning Calibre profile on Soft and happy to have him at 50s (cut to 33s by the only NRNB bookie, though still available at 50s antepost).
None of yesterday's other runners with GN entries are of interest from my model's persepctive.
So to today and 2 races with GN entries that are, potentially:
In the Gold Cup, CONFLATED (18/1 today and GN 20/1 NRNB) would have to win or finish <10L to elevate his GN stat-rating to a backable standard. But the noises from Elliott cast doubt over whether he'll line up for the GN. NOBLE YEATS could win today and still not elevate his stat-rating to suggest he'll do a Tiger at Aintree, though the market would surely assume him to be a shoo in.
HEWICK (66/1 today, GN 25/1) loves Good ground and would have to win or near-miss today despite a far from ideal surface to give his stat-rating the required boost.
Meanwhile, a 26f chase at Down Royal, quietly favoured by some Irish trainers as a later GN prep (if only as a fall back for other plans having failed) - Nil Desperandum won and was close 2nd in it prior to his GN6th and 4th in 2005 & 06 - sees LONGHOUSE POET (didn't and won't get the GN trip IMHO), ROI MAGE (zero interest) and FARCLAS run, as usual, on testing ground (Soft, Heavy places).
Notably, PENCILFULLOFLEAD was declared for the race and made fav but is a Non-Runner - waiting to hear why.
FARCLAS (11/2 today, GN 66/1) a fine 5th as a 7yo in the 2021 GN, has had a frustrating injury-interrupted time since (only 4 runs and 1 completion) and has his fitness to prove but if he were to do so with a win or near-miss today, on his stats, he'd give himself an outside chance of repeating a Minor Place at Aintree.
I don't usually have any unpickled brain cells remaining to do a big sum up tbh but certainly a final list of the model's top ratings - one on Good-to-Soft, another on Soft.
All the explanations for those ratings are already set out one by one.
Tricky one this year though.