The final weekend of racing before the Handicapper frames the GN weights (in half the cases for horses with whom he has only a passing acquaintance) and it's certainly an unusual one with 2 Grand National Trials being run.
Some with GN entries will be seeking a bump in the handicap to get a chance of lining up for the Big One, though God knows where the cut will come this year - possibly lower than any GN since 2013 (OR131).
Ironically, the Irish GNT at Punchestown tomorrow has the most Aintree interest (6 entries) - topweight Diol Ker (close 2nd in the PP Hdcp, which has been an informative GN trial recently, but doesn't have an Aintree pedigree IMHO), Coko Beach (creditable 8th last April but once again failing to get >28f), Death Duty (soft early UR last GN but too long in the tooth now), Milan Native (there's always Foinavon), Defi Bleu (can't get desperately excited) and Captain Kangaroo (of very minor interest but would have to win convincingly tomorrow to make the GN cut and get in the handicap proper - the form of his Cork National win, with Defi Bleu close 2nd, is pretty naff). Actually, the most interesting aspect of tomorrow's race is whether the result will frank the form of other Irish contenders for April glory.
Today's Haydock's GNT over 28.5f (usually run after the GN weights have been framed) will be on atypically quick-ish ground, including 4 GN entries (all British-trained) - Quick Wave, stablemate and 2021 Hennessy-winner Cloudy Glen, Fortescue and Grumpy Charley. As regards Aintree profiles, only Grumpy Charley's makes any sort of appeal (2nd season chaser with nice damside, related to Native River) but it's unlikely he'll be featuring on my team. I don't think 4m+ at GN-pace is gettable by any of these 4.
Meanwhile, across the puddle, today's Grade 2 20f Red Mills Chase at Gowran Park sees 3 of the Irish entries for Aintree line up in a small field, including 2 for JP - Capodanno (having his seasonal debut, too late for a GN contender) and Darasso (fancied by some for Aintree, not me) - and one of Elliott's legion, Battleoverdoyen (there's always Red Marauder). Returning to Blighty, Ascot's Swinley Chase sees 2 GN entries, both of whom need to finish 1~4 to qualify to run on 15 April: Ridersonthestorm, in his first run at 22f in 26 races Under Rules, makes zero appeal even if he does, having jumped like a pony in last year's Topham. Sporting John (distantly related to Party Politics) has his first run after another wind op. He's got some ability but not the profile of a GN contender IMHO.
Just about sums up the state of the British challenge for the Aintree marathon this year - though not entirely (watch this space!).
1,2,3 for Elliott and the Gigginstown Git in the Irish GNT. Coko Beach won it nicely (cut to 33s for Aintree). It was a very creditable 8th last GN for a 7yo but he was spent a fair way out and he'll surely be off a similar mark if he lines up this year. Death Duty (5.5L 2nd) might have pushed him all the way today but for an horrendous mistake 3 out - recovered very gamely indeed for a 12 year old. Despite his age and likely being out of the handicap at Aintree, at 100s, could be tempted to have an e/w dabble if there's a spare shilling once the main money's down. Not the highest quality of races at Punchestown but on paper the winner franks the form of others of greater interest for the Big One. More anon.
Bugger me, that's a bit harsh on several of the Irish, especially Any Second Now. Thrown a bucket of cold water on one that I was eyeing up.
Who, in all honesty, could disagree with Ted Walsh?
“All I can say is that I know he’s not Red Rum, I know he’s not a Crisp and he’s not a L’Escargot, so make your own mind up
“I’m absolutely shocked that he has top weight. He goes there in as good form as he did last year. He is in as good nick as he was last year but he’s got top weight so make your own mind up. I think he’d have to be an exceptional horse to win it with top weight.”
Weights unveiled, it’s time to start talking turkey.
BTW, for the first time since 2008, the topweight carries
11.12, not the 11.10 we’ve got used to.
On current each-way terms and with >50 days still to the
big day, there are few (if any) slam dunk candidates on their profiles, that are
also definitely intended runners, indifferent to the going and whose odds are
sufficiently juicy IMO to warrant an ante-post interest.
I was anticipating making 2 recommendations today but the mysterious ways of the handicapper’s consigned one of them to
my lengthening subs bench; perhaps only temporarily, depending on how things pan out.
It has to be said that the entry this year looks unusually
short both on quantity and race-specific quality and we have the prospect for
the first time since 2013 of some runners being out of the handicap, perhaps as
many as 6+ for the first time in more than 20 years.
At least 2 with interesting stat-profiles will be up to 4lbs
wrong at the weights and, while the race favours a light burden, the fact is no
runner O/H has made the first 3 home in a GN since Bobbyjo’s famous win in 1999
(he was a stone “wrong” and 17 of the 32 runners were O/H), which prompted the weights’
compression era. Since then, 43 O/H runners have run across 6 Aintree GNs (18%
of total runners). None has made the first 3 home and only 2 made 4~5th [<7% of first 5 home]).
Others are dependent on Soft ground (looking improbable) or,
despite promise, have shown temperament issues on course that could derail any chance
in a GN before the tape goes up. And, as usual, to add to the moving parts, preps
will be crucial to the stat-ratings of some.
So, as a result, high selectivity and patience, albeit at
the risk of missing the best prices, is the name of the game this year IMHO
and, for the moment, it’s just the one on my team sheet:
THE BIG BREAKAWAY (8yo, 10-10) – 33/1
The best chance for the Home Team, according to my model, trained
by Joe Tizzard:
·
In his 3rd season chasing, he’s
near-missed in both runs this season at >25f, most notably when lumping
11.13 in December’s 30.5f Welsh GN on Soft, keeping on well, passing The Big
Dog in the run in and just held by the winner, to which he was conceding 26lbs.
·
Aintree going will likely be very different but,
on that Chepstow run, he’ll have a 13lb pull on The Big Dog and, via collateral
form, to a larger or lesser extent, on several other Irish contenders.
·
He needs a test of stamina but handles a
sound surface, near-missing in a Grade 1 novice chase over 3m around speedy
Kempton on quickish GS.
·
Pedigree ticks GN boxes:
o
Closely related to Rathvinden, 5L 3rd
in the 2019 GN (shares maternal grandmother) and half-brother to Kildisart.
o
Their maternal great-grandfather (Damsire 2), Strong
Gale, has appeared on the damside of 4 other GN frame-makers Cappa Bleu (twice), Teaforthree,
Shutthefrontdoor and The Last Samuri, while Damsire 3, Tarqogan, was Damsire to
GN winner Rhyme n Reason and near-misser Romany King.
·
Hurdles RPR146, a final prep in the Ultima 32
days prior, to make 3 runs in the season is perfect, as is a racing weight of
10.10.
Surely we are getting towards the point where the GN specific handicapping is obsolete?
He has had two very creditable placed finishes so clearly likes the place and got some good form including a Kim Muir but how on earth can Any Second Now be carrying more weight than Noble Yeats (won this and a G2), Galvin (won Savills and NHC and been JF for a Gold Cup) and Royale Pagaille (won 2x G2) and level with Conflated (won Savills and Irish GC)? Oh and he's at least 2 years older than all of them as well.
It's just silly. He's surely at least 5 pounds over?
Done no research whatsoever so TYVM Peanuts for the best annual thread there is! Wondering if it's worth another go on Delta Work. 20s is a tad skinny I suspect, though.
I totally agree about Any Second Now's mark but, let's face it, with the Irish having 21 of the top 23 in the weights, if it wasn't Ted Walsh complaining then it would be one of the other owners/trainers about their entry being top weight. According to them, they are always so harshly treated but somehow have managed to win the last four renewals and last year they managed to train seven of the first nine home!
Done no research whatsoever so TYVM Peanuts for the best annual thread there is! Wondering if it's worth another go on Delta Work. 20s is a tad skinny I suspect, though.
Cheers @PaddyP17 Absolutely he’s worth another crack, especially with a week’s extra recovery time after Cheltenham. I think he was relatively well-treated today and 11-04 is very workable for him. In a race worth few perfect profiles, his is strong, despite hitting 10. Got that Saint Are parental combo of Network and Video Rock (Wild Risk and Bold Ruler on the dam side). 20s could look value after the XC. Given the lack of long priced candidates I’m keeping powder dry but he’s very likely to come off my subs bench for GN.
For better or worse, Topspeed agrees. Until 3pm today, Lifetime Ambition was my model’s pick of the Irish but that GNOR 158 is a bit heavy IMO and he’s back in the mix for the time being.
Top-rated Grand National entries
The Big Breakaway 166 Le MIlos 163 Ashtown Lad 162 Corach Rambler 161 Fortescue 161 Lifetime Ambition 160 Remastered 160 Any Second Now 159 The Big Dog 159 Franco De Port 158 Hill Sixteen 158 Mister Coffey 158
Hills are the first bookie to go NRNB. Still 5 places 1/5 odds. For the 2022 GN I was placing ante-post e/w bets from the prior December for 5 places 1/4 odds. Now, even with the weights out, those bookies paying 1/4 odds (notably Bet365) are all still only 4 places. Maybe that will change shortly but as an e/w punter I'm certainly not settling for 4 places in a 40 runner race, losing my stake if the horse doesn't even run. But I'm also not inclined to settle for 1/5 odds when I know, for that fractional return, I'll get 6 places in due course. Jesus it used to be 7 (even 8) places with some of the smaller bookies near race time. Beginning to have serious doubts about how long it's sufficiently viable (let alone interesting from the perspective of a lover of true staying chasers) to continue this.
In any event, a big move yesterday (generally now 14~16) for 7 yo MR INCREDIBLE, with punters sniffing a plot by the former owner of Noble Yeats, who acquired him in November and who's due to carry just 10.04 at Aintree. My model does rate him a winning contender. He's by Westerner, who sired Gilgamboa, and is distantly related to Bonanza Boy (twice Welsh GN winner). Impressed over 29f when 2nd 3L behind Iwilldoit in the mud at Warwick in January. But he's the principal one of the pair that I'm really wary of temperamentally. In just 6 chases, he's Refused to Race in one and downed tools ("pulled himself up" according to the jockey) after 5 fences in another. Those were his last 2 outings for Henry De Bromhead before he was sold and sent to Willie Mullins who said (after Warwick) "he's been training differently. He's ... a Patrick [Mullins] project". That's great. They may have found the key to him and I'm sure he'll be well schooled over spruce but the Grand National will be unlike any other racing occasion the horse has faced in his brief career to date (8 races Under Rules). He'll likely head for a big test of that temperament in the Kim Muir, where he'll carry top weight. It will also be a test of his jumping on (probably) quickish ground, which has looked a little worrisome. If he wins, expect him to go off favourite for the GN. I could be kicking myself come 5.20pm on 15 April, but as things stand, IMHO he's way too big a risk for the price right now.
Interesting that the list above contains 158-166 horses that ten years ago that sort of rating ruled you out. Peanuts how has the the winning horses handicap mark differed since the changes in distance of the national around ten years ago?
Interesting that the list above contains 158-166 horses that ten years ago that sort of rating ruled you out. Peanuts how has the the winning horses handicap mark differed since the changes in distance of the national around ten years ago?
GN marks of winners 1991 148 1992 153 1994 153 1995 155 1996 152 1997 149 1998 147 1999 142 (but 14lbs O/H so actual OR 128) Weight compression starts 2000 139 2001 140 2002 136 2003 139 2004 139 2005 144 2006 138 2007 138 2008 139 2009 148 2010 153 2011 150 2012 157 (by a nose hair from 142) Course changes 2013 137 2014 143 2015 160 2016 148 2017 148 2018 150 2019 159 (Tiger's 2nd win) 2021 146 2022 147
11 with a GNOR >160 have run in a GN since the course changes. Too small a sample at 3% of all runners to produce a statistically meaningful result over 9 races but none have made the first 4 home and only 1 (Anibale Fly 164 made 5th 16.5L in 2019).
Another tiny statlette. Since 2013, 13 GN runners aged 11+ have had a GNOR 155+. Again, a very small sample but this is their record: P U F F 9 P U U R P F 0 P
This year, Any Second Now (167), Sam Brown (159), Carefully Selected (156) and Chris's Dream (155 - maybe scratched) are all 11 year olds.
Thanks for the Stats - I'm currently siding with Lord Lariat but would want Good/soft going assuming that's the best we will now see in a grand national.
So, tomorrow we enter the sweet spot for final preps for the big one (49 days and counting) and the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse (3.55pm) sees 7 with Aintree entries take on favourite Kemboy and one other. It's been a popular trial for the GN down the years. Hedgehunter won both in 2005, while Rathvinden (2019) and Any Second Now (last year) took the BJ before going close in the big one. And, for good measure, Black Apalachi and Pleasant Company both won it the year prior to finishing runner up at Aintree.
11yo Carefully Selected (10/3 tomorrow and 25/1 for Aintree) has had an injury-interrupted career and this is only his 7th chase. He took the Thyestes in January (2nd run after a near 3 year absence) and he certainly has talent but he was beaten and seemingly spent prior to UR-ing at the last in the 30f Novice chase at the 2020 Festival.
Vanillier was a flop in the 30f Nov Chase at the 2022 Festival and holds zero appeal for Aintree.
As @Starinnaddick pointed out, Longhouse Poet (Thyestes winner last year) has only been seen over hurdles since a creditable 6th in the 2022 GN (carrying one of my shillings). 5/1 tomorrow and 16/1 for the GN, he jumped the spruce beautifully last year and his trainer (Martin Brassil - trained 2006 GN winner Numbersixvalverde) is convinced with more conservative riding tactics he'll get the trip off the same mark (155). He has a strong GN-style pedigree (which, with unexposed 2nd season chaser status, piqued my interest a year ago) but, to my eyes, he was spent jumping the last and, with 11.00 on his back, I don't think he'll see out the 34f this time either.
Glamorgan Duke is #78 and last in the GN weights (100/1) and would be 13lbs out of the handicap if he makes the cut. He's closely related to 2003 winner Montys Pass but coming under orders would likely be as close as he's ever gets to Aintree glory.
However they run tomorrow, none of these 4 will be making my team but these 3 are potentially of more interest:
Pencilfulloflead (GN 33/1) - finished strongly in the Thyestes (5L 3rd) and is flashing away brightly on my GN radar screen but, as trainer Elliott says, he "needs it the softer the better". As things stand he can't be backed IMO but the going tomorrow is likely to be Yielding and is likely to be run at a decent pace, so a win or strong near-miss over the furthest he's run to date (25.5f) could indicate that what he needs is a test of stamina rather than specifically Soft ground. I suspect that may be the case, as most Shantou progeny act on a sound surface and only 2 of his 12 runs Under Rules have been on better than Soft (travelled nicely with leaders at good pace before F 9th and 2nd of 21 over hurdles, behind a future Gr1 winner). We'll see.
Farclas (GN 66/1) - highly creditable 5th as a 7 yo in the 2021 GN, he's had niggles since that have seen him run only 4 times and only once this season (PU on Soft in the Troytown). From the family of the stout mare Ebony Jane (famously placed in both Irish and Aintree GNs on testing ground 5 days apart in 1994), he’s shown his best form on Good or GS (Yielding) and in the Spring: chase form mid-Mar to mid-June reads 11125(GN)F. He has questions to answer but tomorrow's decent surface and trip provides a golden opportunity to do so.
Enjoy D'Allen (GN 40/1) - near-missing in the 2021 Irish GN and Paddy Power Hdcp, he was purchased by JP prior to the 2022 GN and set off enthusiastically, only to UR softly when stumbling at the 1st fence. He too has had his mark protected and has run over fences only once this season (PP Hdcp again, this time 10th 14L). Disconcertingly, he needed a bit of encouragement to get going at Leopardstown in December and how he runs tomorrow will be instructive. Like Farclas, he needs to win or go close to elevate his GN stat-profile to be of interest for April but his pedigree (similar to Saint Are and Delta Work) is interesting for a GN.
Should be a highly competitive and interesting race tomorrow.
Only one GN entry in tomorrow’s Coral Trophy at Kempton, that was a regular GN prep in days of yore (both won by Rough Quest in 1996, ridden by Mick (“that was better than sex”) Fitzgerald) - Our Power (GN 50/1) ......... he could set a course record tomorrow and still be of no appeal to me for the biggie
Ran out of time yesterday but to round off today's Aintree-related action:
At Newcastle, Eva's Oskar (16/1 today and GN 100/1) aims to follow in Comply Or Die's hoof prints and do the Eider (as topweight) & GN double. He was close 2nd in November's 3.5m chase at Cheltenham, which has had more value as an Aintree pointer - Don't Push It was close 2nd and Hello Bud close 3rd in the Cheltenham Class 1 before winning and placing 5th respectively in the 2010 GN and Alvarado won it prior to placing 4th (first of two occasions) at Aintree in 2014. A win or near miss today would give him a chance on his stat-rating and with 10.01 on his back at Aintree of making the frame but, sadly with no correlation of apostrophes with GN victory, his profile's not up to either 2008 or 2010 winner's standard.
Actually I strongly fancy Pencilfulloflead to go really well today and have put a couple of bob on him, which would hopefully hedge a fall in his current 33/1 GN price should he do so. Will be glued to Fairyhouse during half-time today. Sadly, Farclas a NR.
Actually I strongly fancy Pencilfulloflead to go really well today and have put a couple of bob on him, which would hopefully hedge a fall in his current 33/1 GN price should he do so. Will be glued to Fairyhouse during half-time today. Sadly, Farclas a NR.
Change of plan - cashed out most of the win bet today and made Pencilfulloflead my first GN e/w bet this year at 33/1 (5 places, 1/5). With other GN candidates short enough, I don't want to risk his price collapsing if he goes conspicuously well today and it will add to the misery if he near-misses and today's bet's a loser. Even if he doesn't, he's got at the very least a strong place profile on Soft and you just can't predict how the ground will come up at Aintree. If they feel they need to water extensively, any unexpected drop of late rain could turn it on the softer side. Will do a write up on him after today's race.
A few plans went awry in yesterday's Bobbyjo, with only 1 of the 6 GN entries showing up well. A soft UR for Longhouse Poet at the first will have frustrated his trainer as this, his first over fences this term, was no doubt planned to be the Poet's final prep before his Aintree return. As last year, The Thyestes seems to have taken a short term toll, with winner Carefully Selected and 3rd Pencilfulloflead, also newly burdened by the curse of my GN ante-post, both failing to fire. Pencilfulloflead wasn't fluent in his jumping and lacked a turn of foot when the pace quickened in a race that clocked a surprisingly slow time for the ground, which was quick enough to have seen Farclas scratched in the morning (as he loves a sound surface, surely a legacy of his injury, at least in the short term). Enjoy D'Allen, especially in light of others even worse off at the weights going much better, just doesn't seem to have the same zest for the game. Vanillier ran a blinder conceding an actual 8lbs and (on respective marks) 20lbs to winner Kemboy, to nearly reel him in at the line. The 2L proximity in 3rd of a 127-rated Now Where or When and the prominent showing of Glamorgan Duke, until UR-ing on the 2nd circuit, was a measure of the somewhat restrained early pace - perhaps not a surprise as Kemboy had never won >25f. Nothing changes for me re any of the other GN entries - Vanillier and Carefully Selected (who folded tamely in the home straight) have both previously exposed stamina limitations and Enjoy D'Allen doesn't inspire confidence of a better outcome at Aintree. The one positive for Pencilfulloflead for Aintree was that, as usual, he stayed on very gamely to the line, albeit one-paced. Pushed out to 40s, unexposed over further, on his profile he remains a strong contender if the ground comes up Soft on 15 April and IMHO, if he takes to the spruce, not a forlorn hope for a place on GS.
Meanwhile, a gallant attempt by Eva's Oskar to lump 12.00 to win the 33.5f Eider from the front just failed - stamina giving out around 4 miles. Our Power powered to victory in the Coral Trophy ("Racing Post Chase" as was) and has been slashed to 25s for the GN. His profile doesn't float my boat.
Following keenly as always, @PeanutsMolloy as all my horse racing knowledge comes from this thread. Many thanks for all your hard work
Cheers @IdleHans There's several Lifers with a lot greater racing knowledge than me TBH - staying chasing is my thing and I'm definitely a one-trick pony. Much appreciate your comment nonetheless and glad you enjoy the thread.
So the GN qualification rules, having dictated that the winner of the 2021 Welsh National over 30.5f and 2023 Warwick Classic over 29f is too inexperienced to line up for a GN, will accommodate a 10yo chaser rated 5lbs inferior, that combines flat with jumps and in 38 races Under Rules (none of them over the GN fences) is yet to chance his arm at 23f+ and is winless over jumps in 2 years, if he can beat any 1 of his 4 rivals and make the first 4 home in tomorrow's 23.5f Premier Chase at Kelso. Of course, if any are declared a Non-Runner in the morning, a clear round in his own time will suffice. The Shunter is a decent racehorse but is yet to show anything that gives him any sort of claim to winning the 34f greatest handicap prize on offer to staying chasers and he's had quite a long career seemingly without the Aintree marathon being on his connections' radar screen. But he may technically qualify and it’s a huge prize so F**k It, roll the dice. Among his rivals, winner of the Hennessy ("Coral Gold Cup" is this season's permutation), Le Milos (GN 20/1), has his final prep before looking to do the Many Clouds Newbury-Aintree double. Tomorrow's run will change nowt in his GN stat-profile, which makes him capable of a strong show for a long way but, according to my model, no cigar.
So the GN qualification rules, having dictated that the winner of the 2021 Welsh National over 30.5f and 2023 Warwick Classic over 29f is too inexperienced to line up for a GN, will accommodate a 10yo chaser rated 5lbs inferior, that combines flat with jumps and in 38 races Under Rules (none of them over the GN fences) is yet to chance his arm at 23f+ and is winless over jumps in 2 years, if he can beat any 1 of his 4 rivals and make the first 4 home in tomorrow's 23.5f Premier Chase at Kelso. Of course, if any are declared a Non-Runner in the morning, a clear round in his own time will suffice. The Shunter is a decent racehorse but is yet to show anything that gives him any sort of claim to winning the 34f greatest handicap prize on offer to staying chasers and he's had quite a long career seemingly without the Aintree marathon being on his connections' radar screen. But he may technically qualify and it’s a huge prize so F**k It, roll the dice. Among his rivals, winner of the Hennessy ("Coral Gold Cup" is this season's permutation), Le Milos (GN 20/1), has his final prep before looking to do the Many Clouds Newbury-Aintree double. Tomorrow's run will change nowt in his GN stat-profile, which makes him capable of a strong show for a long way but, according to my model, no cigar.
Silly me. I omitted to see the most obvious open goal for The Shunter tomorrow. Zanza, one of the 5 declared for the race, is also declared for the Greatwood Gold Cup at his favourite track Newbury and presumably will most likely head there. Just a clear round will do.
Running the slide rule over this year's GN entries, the trusted maxim of the greatest fictional sleuth of them all keeps coming to mind:
‘…when you have eliminated all which is impossible, then whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.’
Of course, nothing is impossible in any horse race, let alone a Grand National in which the only certainty are the slings and arrows of outrageous Fortune. Thus, to state the bleedin' obvious, odds permitting, betting on a 4~6 horse team each-way gives the best chance of a return and the aim of picking that team by means of a "model" of course is to spot market anomalies (if they exist) but in any event to achieve a decent % profit more often than not.
Because of those slings and arrows, I don’t like to run the model as an elimination exercise, since any of the horses that set off each time on the flag drop could win this great race. No matter how long standing, stats are always going to be broken, as 7yo Noble Yeats amply demonstrated.
The last time I explicitly and stupidly ruled out a runner was Ballabriggs in 2011. I even laid him (small) on Betfair, which cost me most of my place returns on Oscar Time and State Of Play.
But this is an unusual year. I have to go back to 2007 for the last time that, at this stage, so few candidates were judged by my model to have a slam dunk winning-calibre GN profile. Then it was 2 (McKelvey who got left at the start but was a fast-closing, agonisingly close 2nd and Simon who was travelling sweetly until tipping up 6 out).
As of today there's only 1, THE BIG BREAKAWAY (33/1), though another 2 have a winning-profile but have question marks over temperament, ground and/or jumping. Of course, as usual, there are several others flashing away on the radar screen that could elevate their GN profile to winning or placing quality depending on their next run, though sadly strong final preps mean much shorter odds.
Since, at least thus far, this year seems to be a process of sorting not so much wheat from chaff as different grades of chaff, and though I’m no doubt tempting fate, I've conducted a process of elimination to try to get to a short-list to fill out my team while the odds make it viable.
Last year, #67 at the Weights was the last to make the cut (3 Reserves also ran but there will be no Reserves this year) so let's apply the Sherlock Methodology to the top 67 this year.
There are 11 tests in the model’s initial screen, of which 6 are currently “Golden”; i.e. none of the first 5 home in all 9 GNs since 2013 failed any of them. In order of statistical strength (i.e. % placed horses passing the test / % of all 356 runners passing it):
1. Form at 26f+ or Unexposed >25f (as youngster or Gr1 3 miler): 61% of all runners passed this test - outperformance factor x1.65 2. Class of 24f+ chase which runner has won (or near-missed) - weight adjusted: 68% passed - x1.47 3. Weight to be carried (graduated test of season form for those with 10.12+): 73% passed - x1.37 4. Last chase win (or near-miss): 77.5% passed - x1.29 5. 15+ field size in which placed or <10L (over conventional fences & Under Rules): 82% passed - x1.22 6. Age (8 the sweet spot but certain 7yo and 10yo+ OK): 82% passed - x1.22
These 31 fail Test 1, 2 or 3 and at least 1 other Golden test and 3+ of the 11 total Initial Tests (unlikely to be remedied in their prep):
Any Second Now (weight has done for him)
Hewick (unless he wins or goes close in Gold Cup - 25/1)
Envoi Allen
Royale Pagaille
Capodanno
The Big Dog (despite being related to Romany King - too much weight)
Sam Brown
Lifetime Ambition
Carefully Selected
Chris's Dream
Coko Beach
Longhouse Poet
Darasso
Burrows Saint
Ga Law
The Shunter
Threeunderfive
Cape Gentleman
Cilaos Emery
Roi Mage
Minella Trump
Vanillier
Ash Tree Meadow
Eva's Oskar
Rapper
Francky Du Berlais
Sporting John
Fortescue
Defi Bleu
Born By The Sea
Gevrey
5 other Initial Tests have similar or greater statistical strength (outperformance vs representation factor) but have been failed by winners or near-missers (<5L) and/or frame-makers:
A. Best Hurdles RPR130+ (138+ if carrying 11.00+; exempting GN or Becher form) - 74% of total 356 runners passed incl. 100% winners/n-m & 96% frame makers B. Form at 28f+ (graduated by weight) - 17.5% passed (62.5% & 49%) C. Wild Risk on Damside of Pedigree - 33% passed (81% & 47%) D. 3+ runs in Season (& shown form) - 58% passed (88% & 87%) E. Days since last run (22~49 or longer if strong form after 50 day+ break) - 71% passed (94% & 96%)
These 9 fail 1 Golden and 2+ of these 5 other tests(unlikely to be remedied in their prep)
A Wave Of The Sea (despite being related to Cause Of Causes)
Velvet Elvis
Ain't That A Shame
Corach Rambler (despite being related to Any Second Now and Gilgamboa)
Comments
Some with GN entries will be seeking a bump in the handicap to get a chance of lining up for the Big One, though God knows where the cut will come this year - possibly lower than any GN since 2013 (OR131).
Ironically, the Irish GNT at Punchestown tomorrow has the most Aintree interest (6 entries) - topweight Diol Ker (close 2nd in the PP Hdcp, which has been an informative GN trial recently, but doesn't have an Aintree pedigree IMHO), Coko Beach (creditable 8th last April but once again failing to get >28f), Death Duty (soft early UR last GN but too long in the tooth now), Milan Native (there's always Foinavon), Defi Bleu (can't get desperately excited) and Captain Kangaroo (of very minor interest but would have to win convincingly tomorrow to make the GN cut and get in the handicap proper - the form of his Cork National win, with Defi Bleu close 2nd, is pretty naff).
Actually, the most interesting aspect of tomorrow's race is whether the result will frank the form of other Irish contenders for April glory.
Today's Haydock's GNT over 28.5f (usually run after the GN weights have been framed) will be on atypically quick-ish ground, including 4 GN entries (all British-trained) - Quick Wave, stablemate and 2021 Hennessy-winner Cloudy Glen, Fortescue and Grumpy Charley.
As regards Aintree profiles, only Grumpy Charley's makes any sort of appeal (2nd season chaser with nice damside, related to Native River) but it's unlikely he'll be featuring on my team. I don't think 4m+ at GN-pace is gettable by any of these 4.
Meanwhile, across the puddle, today's Grade 2 20f Red Mills Chase at Gowran Park sees 3 of the Irish entries for Aintree line up in a small field, including 2 for JP - Capodanno (having his seasonal debut, too late for a GN contender) and Darasso (fancied by some for Aintree, not me) - and one of Elliott's legion, Battleoverdoyen (there's always Red Marauder).
Returning to Blighty, Ascot's Swinley Chase sees 2 GN entries, both of whom need to finish 1~4 to qualify to run on 15 April:
Ridersonthestorm, in his first run at 22f in 26 races Under Rules, makes zero appeal even if he does, having jumped like a pony in last year's Topham.
Sporting John (distantly related to Party Politics) has his first run after another wind op. He's got some ability but not the profile of a GN contender IMHO.
Just about sums up the state of the British challenge for the Aintree marathon this year - though not entirely (watch this space!).
More anon.
Coko Beach won it nicely (cut to 33s for Aintree). It was a very creditable 8th last GN for a 7yo but he was spent a fair way out and he'll surely be off a similar mark if he lines up this year.
Death Duty (5.5L 2nd) might have pushed him all the way today but for an horrendous mistake 3 out - recovered very gamely indeed for a 12 year old. Despite his age and likely being out of the handicap at Aintree, at 100s, could be tempted to have an e/w dabble if there's a spare shilling once the main money's down.
Not the highest quality of races at Punchestown but on paper the winner franks the form of others of greater interest for the Big One.
More anon.
PS Fiddlerontheroof confirmed Non-runner
Weights out shortly.
Bristol De Mai also retired.
1 Any Second Now (IRE) 11 11 12 167 Mr John P. McManus Ted Walsh IRE
2 Conflated (IRE) 9 11 12 167 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
3 Hewick (IRE) 8 11 12 167 Mr T. J. Mcdonald John Hanlon IRE
4 Galvin (IRE) 9 11 11 166 Mr R. A. Bartlett Gordon Elliott IRE
5 Noble Yeats (IRE) 8 11 11 166 Mr Robert Waley-Cohen Emmet Mullins IRE
6 Envoi Allen (FR) 9 11 8 163 Cheveley Park Stud Henry de Bromhead IRE
7 Royale Pagaille (FR) 9 11 8 163 Mrs S. Ricci Venetia Williams
8 Fury Road (IRE) 9 11 6 161 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
9 Capodanno (FR) 7 11 5 160 Mr John P. McManus Willie Mullins IRE
10 The Big Dog (IRE) 10 11 5 160 Damien J. Kelly/Colin Kelly Peter Fahey IRE
11 Delta Work (FR) 10 11 4 159 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
12 Sam Brown (GB) 11 11 4 159 Mr T. C. Frost Anthony Honeyball
13 Franco de Port (FR) 8 11 3 158 Bruton Street V Willie Mullins IRE
14 Lifetime Ambition (IRE) 8 11 3 158 Linda Mulcahy/Mary Wolridge Jessica Harrington IRE
15 Carefully Selected (IRE) 11 11 1 156 Miss M. A. Masterson Willie Mullins IRE
16 Chris's Dream (IRE) 11 11 0 155 Robcour Henry de Bromhead IRE
17 Coko Beach (FR) 8 11 0 155 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
18 Gaillard du Mesnil (FR) 7 11 0 155 Mrs J. Donnelly Willie Mullins IRE
19 Longhouse Poet (IRE) 9 11 0 155 Sean & Bernardine Mulryan Martin Brassil IRE
*20 Minella Times (IRE) 10 11 0 155 Mr John P. McManus Henry de Bromhead IRE
21 Darasso (FR) 10 10 13 154 Mr John P. McManus Joseph O'Brien IRE
22 Burrows Saint (FR) 10 10 12 153 Mrs S. Ricci Willie Mullins IRE
23 Pencilfulloflead (IRE) 9 10 12 153 Robcour Gordon Elliott IRE
24 Ga Law (FR) 7 10 11 152 The Footie Partnership Jamie Snowden
25 Happygolucky (IRE) 9 10 11 152 Lady Dulverton Kim Bailey
26 Le Milos (GB) 8 10 11 152 The Jolly Good Partnership Dan Skelton
27 Quick Wave (FR) 10 10 11 152 Ms Sharon Kinsella Venetia Williams
28 The Shunter (IRE) 10 10 11 152 Mr John P. McManus Emmet Mullins IRE
29 Escaria Ten (FR) 9 10 10 151 McNeill Family Gordon Elliott IRE
30 Farclas (FR) 9 10 10 151 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
31 Remastered (GB) 10 10 10 151 Brocade Racing David Pipe
32 The Big Breakaway (IRE) 8 10 10 151 Eric Jones, Geoff Nicholas, John Romans Joe Tizzard
33 Threeunderthrufive (IRE) 8 10 9 150 McNeill Family Paul Nicholls
34 Cape Gentleman (IRE) 7 10 8 149 Mr Pierre Manigault John Hanlon IRE
35 Cilaos Emery (FR) 11 10 8 149 The Has Been's Sophie Leech
36 Diol Ker (FR) 9 10 8 149 Gigginstown House Stud Noel Meade IRE
37 Roi Mage (FR) 11 10 8 149 Pryde/Van Der Hoeven/McGladery/Beaumont Patrick Griffin IRE
38 A Wave of The Sea (IRE) 7 10 6 147 Mr John P. McManus Joseph O'Brien IRE
39 Minella Trump (IRE) 9 10 6 147 Mr T. G. Leslie Donald McCain
40 Vanillier (FR) 8 10 6 147 Mrs H. M. Keaveney Gavin Cromwell IRE
41 Velvet Elvis (IRE) 7 10 6 147 Mr D. Kierans Tom Gibney IRE
42 Ain't That A Shame (IRE) 9 10 5 146 Robcour Henry de Bromhead IRE
43 Corach Rambler (IRE) 9 10 5 146 The Ramblers Lucinda Russell
44 Enjoy d'Allen (FR) 9 10 5 146 Mr John P. McManus Ciaran Murphy IRE
45 Lord Lariat (IRE) 8 10 5 146 P.Blake/Patrick John Casey Dermot McLoughlin IRE
46 Ash Tree Meadow (FR) 7 10 4 145 Alymer Stud Ltd Gordon Elliott IRE
47 Battleoverdoyen (IRE) 10 10 4 145 Pioneer Racing Gordon Elliott IRE
48 Cloudy Glen (IRE) 10 10 4 145 Exors of the late Mr Trevor Hemmings Venetia Williams
49 Gin On Lime (FR) 7 10 4 145 Robcour Henry de Bromhead IRE
50 Mister Coffey (FR) 8 10 4 145 Lady Bamford & Alice Bamford Nicky Henderson
51 Mr Incredible (IRE) 7 10 4 145 Mr P. Byrne Willie Mullins IRE
52 Ashtown Lad (IRE) 9 10 3 144 Darren & Annaley Yates Dan Skelton
53 Gabbys Cross (IRE) 8 10 2 143 Mr R. S. Brookhouse Henry de Bromhead IRE
54 Hill Sixteen (GB) 10 10 2 143 J Fyffe & S Townshend Sandy Thomson
55 Eva's Oskar (IRE) 9 10 1 142 Sally & Richard Prince Tim Vaughan
56 Rapper (GB) 9 10 1 142 The Home Farm Partnership Henry Daly
57 Recite A Prayer (IRE) 8 10 1 142 The Turner Family Willie Mullins IRE
58 Death Duty (IRE) 12 10 0 141 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
59 Dunboyne (IRE) 8 10 0 141 S. P. O'Connor Gordon Elliott IRE
60 Francky du Berlais (FR) 10 10 0 141 Mr Roddy Owen Peter Bowen
61 Frontal Assault (IRE) 8 10 0 141 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
62 Our Power (IRE) 8 10 0 141 Walters Plant Hire & Potter Group Sam Thomas
63 Sporting John (IRE) 8 10 0 141 Mr John P. McManus Philip Hobbs
64 Back On The Lash (GB) 9 9 13 140 Maughan, Redknapp, Ryan, Salters Martin Keighley
65 Fortescue (GB) 9 9 13 140 Mrs L Nixon Henry Daly
66 Defi Bleu (FR) 10 9 12 139 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
67 Born By The Sea (IRE) 9 9 10 137 Natalie Gilligan Paul Gilligan IRE
68 Gevrey (FR) 7 9 10 137 Denis Gallagher Racing Gordon Elliott IRE
69 Milan Native (IRE) 10 9 10 137 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
70 Punitive (IRE) 9 9 10 137 Pioneer Racing Gordon Elliott IRE
71 Captain Kangaroo (IRE) 8 9 8 135 Kanga Racing & Brett Graham Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE
72 Darrens Hope (IRE) 9 9 8 135 Robert Murphy Robert Murphy IRE
73 Fakiera (FR) 8 9 8 135 Mr T. O'Driscoll Gordon Elliott IRE
74 Mortal (IRE) 11 9 8 135 Mr A. Dunlop Gordon Elliott IRE
75 Captain Cattistock (GB) 10 9 5 132 Mr Nic Brereton Fergal O'Brien
76 Fantastikas (FR) 8 9 5 132 Imperial Racing Partnership 2016 Nigel Twiston-Davies
77 Secret Reprieve (IRE) 9 9 5 132 Mr & Mrs William Rucker Evan Williams
78 Glamorgan Duke (IRE) 10 9 1 128 Natalie Gilligan Paul Gilligan IRE
*Henry de Bromhead announced the retirement of Minella Times this morning (Tuesday 21st February)
SCRATCHED; Fiddlerontheroof (IRE), Grumpy Charley (GB), Iwilldoit (GB), Riders Onthe Storm (IRE)
NOT QUALIFIED: Chemical Energy (IRE), Nearly Perfect (GB), Minella Crooner (IRE)Who, in all honesty, could disagree with Ted Walsh?
“All I can say is that I know he’s not Red Rum, I know he’s not a Crisp and he’s not a L’Escargot, so make your own mind up
“I’m absolutely shocked that he has top weight. He goes there in as good form as he did last year. He is in as good nick as he was last year but he’s got top weight so make your own mind up. I think he’d have to be an exceptional horse to win it with top weight.”
Weights unveiled, it’s time to start talking turkey.
BTW, for the first time since 2008, the topweight carries 11.12, not the 11.10 we’ve got used to.
On current each-way terms and with >50 days still to the big day, there are few (if any) slam dunk candidates on their profiles, that are also definitely intended runners, indifferent to the going and whose odds are sufficiently juicy IMO to warrant an ante-post interest.
I was anticipating making 2 recommendations today but the mysterious ways of the handicapper’s consigned one of them to my lengthening subs bench; perhaps only temporarily, depending on how things pan out.
It has to be said that the entry this year looks unusually short both on quantity and race-specific quality and we have the prospect for the first time since 2013 of some runners being out of the handicap, perhaps as many as 6+ for the first time in more than 20 years.
At least 2 with interesting stat-profiles will be up to 4lbs wrong at the weights and, while the race favours a light burden, the fact is no runner O/H has made the first 3 home in a GN since Bobbyjo’s famous win in 1999 (he was a stone “wrong” and 17 of the 32 runners were O/H), which prompted the weights’ compression era. Since then, 43 O/H runners have run across 6 Aintree GNs (18% of total runners). None has made the first 3 home and only 2 made 4~5th [<7% of first 5 home]).
Others are dependent on Soft ground (looking improbable) or, despite promise, have shown temperament issues on course that could derail any chance in a GN before the tape goes up. And, as usual, to add to the moving parts, preps will be crucial to the stat-ratings of some.
So, as a result, high selectivity and patience, albeit at the risk of missing the best prices, is the name of the game this year IMHO and, for the moment, it’s just the one on my team sheet:
THE BIG BREAKAWAY (8yo, 10-10) – 33/1
The best chance for the Home Team, according to my model, trained by Joe Tizzard:
· In his 3rd season chasing, he’s near-missed in both runs this season at >25f, most notably when lumping 11.13 in December’s 30.5f Welsh GN on Soft, keeping on well, passing The Big Dog in the run in and just held by the winner, to which he was conceding 26lbs.
· Aintree going will likely be very different but, on that Chepstow run, he’ll have a 13lb pull on The Big Dog and, via collateral form, to a larger or lesser extent, on several other Irish contenders.
· He needs a test of stamina but handles a sound surface, near-missing in a Grade 1 novice chase over 3m around speedy Kempton on quickish GS.
· Pedigree ticks GN boxes:
o Closely related to Rathvinden, 5L 3rd in the 2019 GN (shares maternal grandmother) and half-brother to Kildisart.
o Their maternal great-grandfather (Damsire 2), Strong Gale, has appeared on the damside of 4 other GN frame-makers Cappa Bleu (twice), Teaforthree, Shutthefrontdoor and The Last Samuri, while Damsire 3, Tarqogan, was Damsire to GN winner Rhyme n Reason and near-misser Romany King.
· Hurdles RPR146, a final prep in the Ultima 32 days prior, to make 3 runs in the season is perfect, as is a racing weight of 10.10.
More anon
He has had two very creditable placed finishes so clearly likes the place and got some good form including a Kim Muir but how on earth can Any Second Now be carrying more weight than Noble Yeats (won this and a G2), Galvin (won Savills and NHC and been JF for a Gold Cup) and Royale Pagaille (won 2x G2) and level with Conflated (won Savills and Irish GC)? Oh and he's at least 2 years older than all of them as well.
It's just silly. He's surely at least 5 pounds over?
Absolutely he’s worth another crack, especially with a week’s extra recovery time after Cheltenham.
I think he was relatively well-treated today and 11-04 is very workable for him.
In a race worth few perfect profiles, his is strong, despite hitting 10. Got that Saint Are parental combo of Network and Video Rock (Wild Risk and Bold Ruler on the dam side).
20s could look value after the XC.
Given the lack of long priced candidates I’m keeping powder dry but he’s very likely to come off my subs bench for GN.
Until 3pm today, Lifetime Ambition was my model’s pick of the Irish but that GNOR 158 is a bit heavy IMO and he’s back in the mix for the time being.
The Big Breakaway 166
Le MIlos 163
Ashtown Lad 162
Corach Rambler 161
Fortescue 161
Lifetime Ambition 160
Remastered 160
Any Second Now 159
The Big Dog 159
Franco De Port 158
Hill Sixteen 158
Mister Coffey 158
For the 2022 GN I was placing ante-post e/w bets from the prior December for 5 places 1/4 odds.
Now, even with the weights out, those bookies paying 1/4 odds (notably Bet365) are all still only 4 places.
Maybe that will change shortly but as an e/w punter I'm certainly not settling for 4 places in a 40 runner race, losing my stake if the horse doesn't even run. But I'm also not inclined to settle for 1/5 odds when I know, for that fractional return, I'll get 6 places in due course. Jesus it used to be 7 (even 8) places with some of the smaller bookies near race time.
Beginning to have serious doubts about how long it's sufficiently viable (let alone interesting from the perspective of a lover of true staying chasers) to continue this.
In any event, a big move yesterday (generally now 14~16) for 7 yo MR INCREDIBLE, with punters sniffing a plot by the former owner of Noble Yeats, who acquired him in November and who's due to carry just 10.04 at Aintree.
My model does rate him a winning contender. He's by Westerner, who sired Gilgamboa, and is distantly related to Bonanza Boy (twice Welsh GN winner). Impressed over 29f when 2nd 3L behind Iwilldoit in the mud at Warwick in January.
But he's the principal one of the pair that I'm really wary of temperamentally.
In just 6 chases, he's Refused to Race in one and downed tools ("pulled himself up" according to the jockey) after 5 fences in another. Those were his last 2 outings for Henry De Bromhead before he was sold and sent to Willie Mullins who said (after Warwick) "he's been training differently. He's ... a Patrick [Mullins] project".
That's great. They may have found the key to him and I'm sure he'll be well schooled over spruce but the Grand National will be unlike any other racing occasion the horse has faced in his brief career to date (8 races Under Rules).
He'll likely head for a big test of that temperament in the Kim Muir, where he'll carry top weight. It will also be a test of his jumping on (probably) quickish ground, which has looked a little worrisome. If he wins, expect him to go off favourite for the GN.
I could be kicking myself come 5.20pm on 15 April, but as things stand, IMHO he's way too big a risk for the price right now.
1991 148
1992 153
1994 153
1995 155
1996 152
1997 149
1998 147
1999 142 (but 14lbs O/H so actual OR 128)
Weight compression starts
2000 139
2001 140
2002 136
2003 139
2004 139
2005 144
2006 138
2007 138
2008 139
2009 148
2010 153
2011 150
2012 157 (by a nose hair from 142)
Course changes
2013 137
2014 143
2015 160
2016 148
2017 148
2018 150
2019 159 (Tiger's 2nd win)
2021 146
2022 147
11 with a GNOR >160 have run in a GN since the course changes.
Too small a sample at 3% of all runners to produce a statistically meaningful result over 9 races but none have made the first 4 home and only 1 (Anibale Fly 164 made 5th 16.5L in 2019).
Since 2013, 13 GN runners aged 11+ have had a GNOR 155+.
Again, a very small sample but this is their record: P U F F 9 P U U R P F 0 P
This year, Any Second Now (167), Sam Brown (159), Carefully Selected (156) and Chris's Dream (155 - maybe scratched) are all 11 year olds.
It's been a popular trial for the GN down the years. Hedgehunter won both in 2005, while Rathvinden (2019) and Any Second Now (last year) took the BJ before going close in the big one. And, for good measure, Black Apalachi and Pleasant Company both won it the year prior to finishing runner up at Aintree.
- 11yo Carefully Selected (10/3 tomorrow and 25/1 for Aintree) has had an injury-interrupted career and this is only his 7th chase. He took the Thyestes in January (2nd run after a near 3 year absence) and he certainly has talent but he was beaten and seemingly spent prior to UR-ing at the last in the 30f Novice chase at the 2020 Festival.
- Vanillier was a flop in the 30f Nov Chase at the 2022 Festival and holds zero appeal for Aintree.
- As @Starinnaddick pointed out, Longhouse Poet (Thyestes winner last year) has only been seen over hurdles since a creditable 6th in the 2022 GN (carrying one of my shillings). 5/1 tomorrow and 16/1 for the GN, he jumped the spruce beautifully last year and his trainer (Martin Brassil - trained 2006 GN winner Numbersixvalverde) is convinced with more conservative riding tactics he'll get the trip off the same mark (155). He has a strong GN-style pedigree (which, with unexposed 2nd season chaser status, piqued my interest a year ago) but, to my eyes, he was spent jumping the last and, with 11.00 on his back, I don't think he'll see out the 34f this time either.
- Glamorgan Duke is #78 and last in the GN weights (100/1) and would be 13lbs out of the handicap if he makes the cut. He's closely related to 2003 winner Montys Pass but coming under orders would likely be as close as he's ever gets to Aintree glory.
However they run tomorrow, none of these 4 will be making my team but these 3 are potentially of more interest:- Pencilfulloflead (GN 33/1) - finished strongly in the Thyestes (5L 3rd) and is flashing away brightly on my GN radar screen but, as trainer Elliott says, he "needs it the softer the better". As things stand he can't be backed IMO but the going tomorrow is likely to be Yielding and is likely to be run at a decent pace, so a win or strong near-miss over the furthest he's run to date (25.5f) could indicate that what he needs is a test of stamina rather than specifically Soft ground. I suspect that may be the case, as most Shantou progeny act on a sound surface and only 2 of his 12 runs Under Rules have been on better than Soft (travelled nicely with leaders at good pace before F 9th and 2nd of 21 over hurdles, behind a future Gr1 winner). We'll see.
- Farclas (GN 66/1) - highly creditable 5th as a 7 yo in the 2021 GN, he's had niggles since that have seen him run only 4 times and only once this season (PU on Soft in the Troytown). From the family of the stout mare Ebony Jane (famously placed in both Irish and Aintree GNs on testing ground 5 days apart in 1994), he’s shown his best form on Good or GS (Yielding) and in the Spring: chase form mid-Mar to mid-June reads 11125(GN)F. He has questions to answer but tomorrow's decent surface and trip provides a golden opportunity to do so.
- Enjoy D'Allen (GN 40/1) - near-missing in the 2021 Irish GN and Paddy Power Hdcp, he was purchased by JP prior to the 2022 GN and set off enthusiastically, only to UR softly when stumbling at the 1st fence. He too has had his mark protected and has run over fences only once this season (PP Hdcp again, this time 10th 14L). Disconcertingly, he needed a bit of encouragement to get going at Leopardstown in December and how he runs tomorrow will be instructive. Like Farclas, he needs to win or go close to elevate his GN stat-profile to be of interest for April but his pedigree (similar to Saint Are and Delta Work) is interesting for a GN.
Should be a highly competitive and interesting race tomorrow.Only one GN entry in tomorrow’s Coral Trophy at Kempton, that was a regular GN prep in days of yore (both won by Rough Quest in 1996, ridden by Mick (“that was better than sex”) Fitzgerald) - Our Power (GN 50/1) ......... he could set a course record tomorrow and still be of no appeal to me for the biggie
At Newcastle, Eva's Oskar (16/1 today and GN 100/1) aims to follow in Comply Or Die's hoof prints and do the Eider (as topweight) & GN double.
He was close 2nd in November's 3.5m chase at Cheltenham, which has had more value as an Aintree pointer - Don't Push It was close 2nd and Hello Bud close 3rd in the Cheltenham Class 1 before winning and placing 5th respectively in the 2010 GN and Alvarado won it prior to placing 4th (first of two occasions) at Aintree in 2014.
A win or near miss today would give him a chance on his stat-rating and with 10.01 on his back at Aintree of making the frame but, sadly with no correlation of apostrophes with GN victory, his profile's not up to either 2008 or 2010 winner's standard.
Will be glued to Fairyhouse during half-time today.
Sadly, Farclas a NR.
With other GN candidates short enough, I don't want to risk his price collapsing if he goes conspicuously well today and it will add to the misery if he near-misses and today's bet's a loser.
Even if he doesn't, he's got at the very least a strong place profile on Soft and you just can't predict how the ground will come up at Aintree. If they feel they need to water extensively, any unexpected drop of late rain could turn it on the softer side.
Will do a write up on him after today's race.
A soft UR for Longhouse Poet at the first will have frustrated his trainer as this, his first over fences this term, was no doubt planned to be the Poet's final prep before his Aintree return.
As last year, The Thyestes seems to have taken a short term toll, with winner Carefully Selected and 3rd Pencilfulloflead, also newly burdened by the curse of my GN ante-post, both failing to fire.
Pencilfulloflead wasn't fluent in his jumping and lacked a turn of foot when the pace quickened in a race that clocked a surprisingly slow time for the ground, which was quick enough to have seen Farclas scratched in the morning (as he loves a sound surface, surely a legacy of his injury, at least in the short term).
Enjoy D'Allen, especially in light of others even worse off at the weights going much better, just doesn't seem to have the same zest for the game.
Vanillier ran a blinder conceding an actual 8lbs and (on respective marks) 20lbs to winner Kemboy, to nearly reel him in at the line.
The 2L proximity in 3rd of a 127-rated Now Where or When and the prominent showing of Glamorgan Duke, until UR-ing on the 2nd circuit, was a measure of the somewhat restrained early pace - perhaps not a surprise as Kemboy had never won >25f.
Nothing changes for me re any of the other GN entries - Vanillier and Carefully Selected (who folded tamely in the home straight) have both previously exposed stamina limitations and Enjoy D'Allen doesn't inspire confidence of a better outcome at Aintree.
The one positive for Pencilfulloflead for Aintree was that, as usual, he stayed on very gamely to the line, albeit one-paced. Pushed out to 40s, unexposed over further, on his profile he remains a strong contender if the ground comes up Soft on 15 April and IMHO, if he takes to the spruce, not a forlorn hope for a place on GS.
Meanwhile, a gallant attempt by Eva's Oskar to lump 12.00 to win the 33.5f Eider from the front just failed - stamina giving out around 4 miles.
Our Power powered to victory in the Coral Trophy ("Racing Post Chase" as was) and has been slashed to 25s for the GN. His profile doesn't float my boat.
Onwards and upwards.
There's several Lifers with a lot greater racing knowledge than me TBH - staying chasing is my thing and I'm definitely a one-trick pony. Much appreciate your comment nonetheless and glad you enjoy the thread.
Of course, if any are declared a Non-Runner in the morning, a clear round in his own time will suffice.
The Shunter is a decent racehorse but is yet to show anything that gives him any sort of claim to winning the 34f greatest handicap prize on offer to staying chasers and he's had quite a long career seemingly without the Aintree marathon being on his connections' radar screen.
But he may technically qualify and it’s a huge prize so F**k It, roll the dice.
Among his rivals, winner of the Hennessy ("Coral Gold Cup" is this season's permutation), Le Milos (GN 20/1), has his final prep before looking to do the Many Clouds Newbury-Aintree double.
Tomorrow's run will change nowt in his GN stat-profile, which makes him capable of a strong show for a long way but, according to my model, no cigar.
Zanza, one of the 5 declared for the race, is also declared for the Greatwood Gold Cup at his favourite track Newbury and presumably will most likely head there.
Just a clear round will do.
‘…when you have eliminated all which is impossible, then whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.’
Of course, nothing is impossible in any horse race, let alone a Grand National in which the only certainty are the slings and arrows of outrageous Fortune. Thus, to state the bleedin' obvious, odds permitting, betting on a 4~6 horse team each-way gives the best chance of a return and the aim of picking that team by means of a "model" of course is to spot market anomalies (if they exist) but in any event to achieve a decent % profit more often than not.
Because of those slings and arrows, I don’t like to run the model as an elimination exercise, since any of the horses that set off each time on the flag drop could win this great race. No matter how long standing, stats are always going to be broken, as 7yo Noble Yeats amply demonstrated.
The last time I explicitly and stupidly ruled out a runner was Ballabriggs in 2011. I even laid him (small) on Betfair, which cost me most of my place returns on Oscar Time and State Of Play.
But this is an unusual year. I have to go back to 2007 for the last time that, at this stage, so few candidates were judged by my model to have a slam dunk winning-calibre GN profile. Then it was 2 (McKelvey who got left at the start but was a fast-closing, agonisingly close 2nd and Simon who was travelling sweetly until tipping up 6 out).
As of today there's only 1, THE BIG BREAKAWAY (33/1), though another 2 have a winning-profile but have question marks over temperament, ground and/or jumping. Of course, as usual, there are several others flashing away on the radar screen that could elevate their GN profile to winning or placing quality depending on their next run, though sadly strong final preps mean much shorter odds.
Since, at least thus far, this year seems to be a process of sorting not so much wheat from chaff as different grades of chaff, and though I’m no doubt tempting fate, I've conducted a process of elimination to try to get to a short-list to fill out my team while the odds make it viable.
Last year, #67 at the Weights was the last to make the cut (3 Reserves also ran but there will be no Reserves this year) so let's apply the Sherlock Methodology to the top 67 this year.
There are 11 tests in the model’s initial screen, of which 6 are currently “Golden”; i.e. none of the first 5 home in all 9 GNs since 2013 failed any of them. In order of statistical strength (i.e. % placed horses passing the test / % of all 356 runners passing it):
1. Form at 26f+ or Unexposed >25f (as youngster or Gr1 3 miler): 61% of all runners passed this test - outperformance factor x1.65
2. Class of 24f+ chase which runner has won (or near-missed) - weight adjusted: 68% passed - x1.47
3. Weight to be carried (graduated test of season form for those with 10.12+): 73% passed - x1.37
4. Last chase win (or near-miss): 77.5% passed - x1.29
5. 15+ field size in which placed or <10L (over conventional fences & Under Rules): 82% passed - x1.22
6. Age (8 the sweet spot but certain 7yo and 10yo+ OK): 82% passed - x1.22
These 31 fail Test 1, 2 or 3 and at least 1 other Golden test and 3+ of the 11 total Initial Tests (unlikely to be remedied in their prep):
- Any Second Now (weight has done for him)
- Hewick (unless he wins or goes close in Gold Cup - 25/1)
- Envoi Allen
- Royale Pagaille
- Capodanno
- The Big Dog (despite being related to Romany King - too much weight)
- Sam Brown
- Lifetime Ambition
- Carefully Selected
- Chris's Dream
- Coko Beach
- Longhouse Poet
- Darasso
- Burrows Saint
- Ga Law
- The Shunter
- Threeunderfive
- Cape Gentleman
- Cilaos Emery
- Roi Mage
- Minella Trump
- Vanillier
- Ash Tree Meadow
- Eva's Oskar
- Rapper
- Francky Du Berlais
- Sporting John
- Fortescue
- Defi Bleu
- Born By The Sea
- Gevrey
5 other Initial Tests have similar or greater statistical strength (outperformance vs representation factor) but have been failed by winners or near-missers (<5L) and/or frame-makers:A. Best Hurdles RPR130+ (138+ if carrying 11.00+; exempting GN or Becher form) - 74% of total 356 runners passed incl. 100% winners/n-m & 96% frame makers
B. Form at 28f+ (graduated by weight) - 17.5% passed (62.5% & 49%)
C. Wild Risk on Damside of Pedigree - 33% passed (81% & 47%)
D. 3+ runs in Season (& shown form) - 58% passed (88% & 87%)
E. Days since last run (22~49 or longer if strong form after 50 day+ break) - 71% passed (94% & 96%)
These 9 fail 1 Golden and 2+ of these 5 other tests (unlikely to be remedied in their prep)
- A Wave Of The Sea (despite being related to Cause Of Causes)
- Velvet Elvis
- Ain't That A Shame
- Corach Rambler (despite being related to Any Second Now and Gilgamboa)
- Enjoy D'Allen
- Battleoverdoyen
- Hill Sixteen
- Recite A Prayer
- Frontal Assault
That leaves us with 27.More culling anon.