Mea culpa, mea maxima culpa ........ aka “my bad”.
Bottom weight this year is 10-02, not 10-00, so any runners with GNOR142 or lower (unless their OR has been uprated since the GN weights were allotted, as in the case of Our Power, increased to OR147), will be running Out-of-the-Handicap ("O/H").
That already includes Recite A Prayer and Eva's Oskar, who will make the cut and be 1lb O/H, assuming Any Second Now is declared as topweight on 13 April.
O/H runners have not fared well since Bobbyjo’s famous win when 14lbs wrong in 1999 (since when 2 from 43 made the frame, 4 & 5th [<7% of first 5 home from 18% of runners]) and certainly being materially O/H has to be a major disadvantage in a large field now with quality opposition.
But the race and complexion of the field is meaningfully different to when O/H runners were commonplace, perhaps in ways more forgiving of certain O/H runners. Aside from no longer having significant weight "compression" at the top of the weights, which increasingly came into vogue immediately following Bobbyjo's win:
1. We have hugely more Irish representation (15% of fields from 2000~2004 compared to c.75% this year) and, as we know, the translation of Irish marks to British races is a matter of heated debate. 2. In stark contrast to earlier times, younger horses (including those unexposed over 26f+) now outperform (e.g. Noble Yeats off only GNOR 147 last year)
Only 1 GN since the crucial fence changes has seen O/H runners. That was 2013 when there were 3, all British-trained, up to 3lbs wrong. Of these, Soll finished 7th when 2lbs O/H.
This year, running with the minimum 10-02, 2 of my model's selections will be running O/H, though both need their preferred ground (probably even to line up): - Dunboyne 2lbs O/H -An 8yo Irish 1st season chaser, unexposed >26f but related to the stamina-Queen Miss Parfois, it will make minimal difference IMO to his chances. He has a Winning Calibre rating and the strongest GN-starred pedigree in the field.
- Back On The Lash 3lbs O/H on his GNOR140 - He was (bizarrely) dropped 2lbs to 138 after PU in the XC so technically he's 5lbs wrong but that's inexplicably stupid IMO as he hates Soft ground (he did exactly the same at the 2022 Festival when the XC was run on Soft). The bottom line is that, even with 10-02, he'll still have two very interesting pluses for a 66/1 shot:
5lb weight advantage on paper vs Delta Work, based on their 1st and 3rd in the handicap XC in January on GS. In receipt of 16lbs (the same as he'll receive on 15 April), BOTL beat him 5L that day. Of course that was a very different race to the big one (4f shorter for starters) and probably Delta W wasn't fully tuned but it's more likely than not that the ground will favour BOTL on 15 April and, while every extra 1lb may prove crucial at the line, IMO it will make little difference to his ability to be competitive and be in the mix at the business end, providing he gets his sound surface.
As already mentioned, 9 yo BOTL enjoys a rare array of Damsires 1~3, each of which have offspring that won a G1 at 10f+. Also, with form at 29f+, only 10 runners (7 different horses) in the GNs 2013~22 (7.6%) ticked both of those boxes but they include 5 of the 9 winners (Auroras Encore, Rule The World, One For Arthur and Tiger Roll), runner-up Cause of Causes and 5th place Rare Bob. Only Minella Rocco ticked both and flopped in the GN. It's no guarantee of anything but it's a hell of a strong statistical correlation.
Others that would be O/H (based on current British ORs or GNORs for the Irish):
Anyone know when 365 start their half stake back offer? Guessing the Monday before?
Usually the day of or evening before isn't it?
I might be wrong but I have a feeling that it is something like 48 hours before i.e. straight after the final decs (bar any reserves getting in) are declared.
No reserves this year.
Thanks. Silly me! Still have in my head that it was on the Thursday night previously and up until midday on the day of the race - but I might have got both of those wrong too!
Anyone know when 365 start their half stake back offer? Guessing the Monday before?
Usually the day of or evening before isn't it?
I might be wrong but I have a feeling that it is something like 48 hours before i.e. straight after the final decs (bar any reserves getting in) are declared.
No reserves this year.
Thanks. Silly me! Still have in my head that it was on the Thursday night previously and up until midday on the day of the race - but I might have got both of those wrong too!
You are correct - but scrapped from this year onwards.
Announced yesterday that Envoi Allen will be scratched, meaning one of Dunboyne or Francky Du Berlais is now guaranteed a run.
Back On The Lash needs 3 more to come out from those above him, of which 16 also hold entries for the Irish GN (12) or Topham (4).
There is talk of not having a full field of 40 this year, with only 54 now standing. By my reckoning it will be touch and go. I'd say a maximum of 9 of the 16 above BOTL with alternative entries are possible defections. 7 of the 11 below him also have entries for Fairyhouse (6) and/or the Topham (2) and, as they'd be 4~15lbs O/H in the GN, it would seem likely that a number of those will take up their earlier, alternative engagement.
So, according to the Sporting Life, Elliott will run 6 in the Aintree GN: Delta Work Galvin Fury Road Escaria Ten Coko beach Dunboyne (in first time blinkers)
Seemingly no Battleoverdoyen, sadly. Presumably another spin around in the Topham on Friday for him. Says Gordon:
“Delta Work was third in the race last year, he got a little bit far back early but ran a very good race,” continued Elliott. “He was a little careful early but he’s in great form and I couldn’t be happier with him, he’s working very well. Galvin – the drier the ground, the better a chance he has. He will have come on a lot from Cheltenham, he’s in good form and I’m very happy with him.”
Galvin – the drier the ground, the better a chance he has. He will have come on a lot from Cheltenham, he’s in good form and I’m very happy with him.
CokoBeach ran very well in the race last year and finished eighth. He won the Grand National Trial at Punchestown.
For Fury Road it is the first time stepping up to this trip. He’s a Grade One horse and a classy horse. Again a bit of nice ground would suit him, but he’s in very, very good form.
Escaria Ten travelled well for a long way last year but just didn’t get home. We’re going to drop him in and take our time with him, ride him a little bit different this year.
Dunboyne gets in off 10st. He’s going to wear blinkers and stays really well. If he gets into a rhythm and doesn’t get too far back early, he will come home strong."
So now I'm confused. Either the minimum weight is indeed 10-00, as I'd originally thought, or someone had better tell Gordon that Dunboyne will be 2lbs O/H. It might matter to him more than it does to me. I'm more concerned about the ground - the softer the better for him as it's less likely he'll get too far back.
But if the blinkers focus him a bit, who knows? Maybe he can stay in touch on GS. I certainly agree that if he's within striking distance at the Melling Road, he's got the profile to come home strong.
This morning, 12 of the top 42 in the GN weights also had entries for the Irish GN next Monday. Today, 9 of them have been scratched from the Fairyhouse marathon, leaving only Royale Pagaille, Diol Ker and (curiously, given Elliott’s comments to the Sporting Life) Dunboyne, plus most of those lower in the GN weights with the Irish GN option. If Battleoverdoyen is to go for the Topham and not the GN at Aintree, then both Dunboyne and Francky Du Berlais are guaranteed a run on 15 April and Back On The Lash needs 2 more to come out to line up. But it looks a little tighter now.
Many are put off by a horse donning blinkers in a GN but are they right?
Since 1997, 115 runners (11.2%) of all 1024 GN runners have worn blinkers.
They've contributed:
3 winners (11.5%) - Earth Summit 1997, Comply Or Die 2008 and Tiger Roll 2019 (he wore cheekpieces in 2018)
4 runners-up (2 of them <3L) and 2 finishing 3rd (11.1% of first 3 home)
So, bang in line with representation.
Ah but 75 of those 115 (65.2%) failed to finish, I hear you say (or maybe not, if you're sane enough not to have done the math). It must be shit or bust, yes?
Nope, because 65.6% of runners without blinkers also failed to finish.
So, overall, there is no statistical correlation whatsoever between wearing blinkers and GN success or failure.
However, that doesn't necessarily mean that donning them, particularly first-time, will have no effect. There are plenty of cases of horses running poorly in first-time blinkers but also of it yielding remarkable results, at least for a few races.
For example, the dour stayer Milansbar as a 10yo had got into the habit of dropping himself out the back of his races and hadn't won for 2 years (failing to complete in 4 of 6 races) before first-time blinkers (and the persuasive charms of Bryony Frost) transformed him into the pillar-to-post 11L winner of the Warwick Classic, prior to placing 2nd in the Midlands National (under an amateur) and 5th in the 2018 GN.
Can they help Dunboyne stay in touch? The answer is definitely they can but it's anybody's guess if they will. For sure, either way, his best chance would still be on Soft.
Many are put off by a horse donning blinkers in a GN but are they right?
Since 1997, 115 runners (11.2%) of all 1024 GN runners have worn blinkers.
They've contributed:
3 winners (11.5%) - Earth Summit 1997, Comply Or Die 2008 and Tiger Roll 2019 (he wore cheekpieces in 2018)
4 runners-up (2 of them <3L) and 2 finishing 3rd (11.1% of first 3 home)
So, bang in line with representation.
Ah but 75 of those 115 (65.2%) failed to finish, I hear you say (or maybe not, if you're sane enough not to have done the math). It must be shit or bust, yes?
Nope, because 65.6% of runners without blinkers also failed to finish.
So, overall, there is no statistical correlation whatsoever between wearing blinkers and GN success or failure.
However, that doesn't necessarily mean that donning them, particularly first-time, will have no effect. There are plenty of cases of horses running poorly in first-time blinkers but also of it yielding remarkable results, at least for a few races.
For example, the dour stayer Milansbar as a 10yo had got into the habit of dropping himself out the back of his races and hadn't won for 2 years (failing to complete in 4 of 6 races) before first-time blinkers (and the persuasive charms of Bryony Frost) transformed him into the pillar-to-post 11L winner of the Warwick Classic, prior to placing 2nd in the Midlands National (under an amateur) and 5th in the 2018 GN.
Can they help Dunboyne stay in touch? The answer is definitely they can but it's anybody's guess if they will. For sure, either way, his best chance would still be on Soft.
And more specifically, in the context of Dunboyne (a regular wearer of Cheekpieces) potentially donning first-time blinkers on 15 April.
Just 5 runners since 1998 wore first-time blinkers in a GN:
2007 Naunton Brook - PU (no headgear previously, only tongue-tie) 2008 Dun Doire - PU (no headgear previously) 2017 Saint Are - 3rd (regular wearer of Cheekpieces, in which was 2nd GN 2015) 2017 Doctor Harper - PU (worn Cheekpieces once) 2021 Potters Corner - PU (had worn Cheekpieces occasionally but not for or since Welsh GN win 15 months earlier)
Way too small a sample to draw meaningful conclusions, of course, but it stands to reason that familiarity with other headgear, as is the case with Dunboyne, might aid the cause even if the purpose is to provoke a reaction of sorts.
In terms of prior headgear experience of blinker-wearing GN winners or near-missers:
Earth Summit - had worn them routinely for 4+ years Whats Up Boys (2nd 2002) - wore them only in previous race (Gold Cup when 5th) (never worn other headgear) Comply Or Die - wore them only twice in previous races (2nd in Tommy Whittle and won Eider) (never worn other headgear) Tiger Roll - had worn Pieces or Blinkers on and off for years but hadn't worn blinkers for 2 years until 2 races prior to 2019 GN - galvanising him to successive wins after a lacklustre seasonal bow in Cheekpieces Any Second Now (2nd 2022) - almost all races for 3 years
Just backed Dunboyne at 50/1 which according to the tipster I use is well under priced. He tipped Santini last year which I also backed at 50/1 and it finished 4th.
Forecasts for Liverpool trending a little wetter next week, particularly Monday and Tuesday but Accuweather currently also projecting 6mm on the morning of the GN.
Sorry to be slow @CHG On Soft ground, for sure. He'd be my model's NAP, just pipping Delta Work.
But unlike DW, on paper you'd say Dunboyne MUST have Soft ground or slower. His record on anything officially better than Soft makes for grim reading:
4/10 12L (24f PtP) 11/20 12.5L (24f hrdl) 8/18 28L (20f hrdl) 11/23 21L (24.5f hrdl) 13/24 33L (24f hrdl) 6/9 23L (24f ch) RR (this is to be ignored IMO as it was a shambolic start into low sun - another runner also nearly RR) PU (21f ch)
If Elliott is to be believed, he will line up at Aintree (we'll know for sure with tomorrow's declarations for Fairyhouse, for which he's still entered) and so NRNB doesn't protect us from quicker ground. But his profile (particularly his GN starred Pedigree) is so strong that, at 50/1, I've happily taken that risk and backed him e/w.
And though I usually rapidly regret backing soft-ground lovers (even with course form) in a GN on quicker than Soft (Kimberlite Candy and Snow Leopardess most recently), I wouldn't rule Dunboyne out entirely if the Official Going is Good to Soft ("GS"), for several reasons:
1. Until he attempts 34f, we won't know for sure whether he actually needs it Soft or simply a sterner test of stamina. He has looked outpaced in some of his races over 3m on Yielding but his staying-on 4th (13L) in the 26f Kim Muir at the Festival supports a degree of optimism. While run on officially Soft and it certainly looked soft on top, the winning time suggests it rode closer to GS. Over a mile further, there's certainly hope if he gets similar ground.
2. “There is nothing more deceptive than an obvious fact” (Holmes, S)
What is Aintree "Good to Soft"?
18 of the last 20 GNs have been run on Officially Good to Soft. These include 2006, won by mud-lover Numbersixvalverde in a time 31 secs slow of standard. In those days, it had to be a swamp to call the ground worse than GS. Even Earth Summit's win in 1998 (6 finishers, winning time 1m42s slow) was officially just "Soft".
Things flipped on their head after the terrible fatalities of 2012, largely caused IMHO by repeated renewals on ground described as Good but manifestly riding at least as Good to Firm (despite bigger fences then, each of the 2010~12 GNs were run at a speed of c.15 secs per furlong, compared to the quickest GN since of 15.76 spf).
Fast ground will never be seen again in the GN but also they'll now NEVER admit to the ground being any better than GS, even though in 4 of the last 9 GNs it has ridden as (safe but) genuine Good ground.
Since 2013, Aintree’s “Good to Soft” has embraced winning times ranging from 7 seconds FAST of standard in 2015 to 11.5 secs SLOW in 2021 - that's equivalent to Many Clouds with 11-09 hitting the line 90L (comfortably more than a furlong) clear of Minella Times with 10-03.
The truth is, even in the most competitive chase of them all, genuine GS should never give rise to times 3+ seconds FAST of standard, as it did in 2015 and 2019.
That GS was, in truth, Good ground and Dunboyne would surely struggle to stay in touch on that. But on the genuine GS of 2013 or 2021, there's hope.
3. Always a risk but first-time blinkers could sharpen him up early and help him stay at least in the same county on quicker than ideal ground.
My post yesterday looked at the impact (or not) of blinkers and, as a regular wearer of Cheekpieces, he's certainly a reasonable candidate for them having a galvanising effect. If so and fortune smiles, a soft-ground horse can deliver on GS.
Famously in 2009, when front-running Black Apalachi tipped up at the 22nd causing the searching pace he'd set to slow, it was late enough to have kiboshed the chances of those that had tried to go with him but early enough to permit soft-ground loving Mon Mome to stay on from the rear and romp to victory from the last (and for fellow 100/1 shot Cerium to do likewise, making 5th).
In conclusion, given that we'll not know how the ground will ride until the race itself, he's a must-have for me on my e/w team. But you pays ya money, you takes ya choice.
While we're on the subject of ground and specific runners' chances, it’s a little simpler with horses that need a decent surface (riding as Good).
Aside from the wetter the ground the sterner the stamina test, that alone narrows down the field considerably, horses that need a decent surface typically don’t travel or jump
well on Soft ground (believe it or not, it can be that they have relatively small hooves).
Even those with multiple GN successes under their belt on GS can be defeated by
Soft; as Saint Are was in 2016 and 2018.
Back On The Lash is one of those runners that absolutely needs (effectively) Good ground. "Good to Soft" a la 2015, 2017, 2019 and 2022 would be fine but, while I'm sure he'll line up if it's Good to Soft of any type, his trainer's said (understandably) he won't run if it's Soft. No point.
Peanuts, with light rain/showers forecast every day this week, what's your best guess on what the going will be?
I hesitate to even hazard a guess tbh. A big variable is they can water or not water. If they've had plenty of rain as they did in March and the water table's probably high, they're obviously less likely to put water on the course. Ditto, if there's rain in the forecast. I guess they'll just be watering a little as and when to aim to keep it pretty much as it probably is now - genuine GS. Drainage is excellent these days, having been improved massively after the mud-baths of Miinnehoma, Earth Summit and Red Marauder's GNs and IMO the biggest chance of a properly Soft or Heavy ground GN like 2016 and 2018 is if they've had it dry and have been watering a lot but there's unexpected, significant rain on race-day or even Friday. I doubt that will apply this year, so for it to be Soft, it will have to be courtesy of the Rain Gods. At this point, I'd say if the forecast for 4~8mm rain daily through next week proves correct, they won't have to water and it will probably be genuine GS (i.e. something like Minella Times in 2021 at 11 secs slow). That would accommodate most horses bar (probably) Back On The Lash and would be about as quick as soft ground horses could hope to handle. On that sort of ground, Delta Work would be my NAP. Sorry, I know that's absolutely no help at all. Where is he when you want him (.... or not)?
Latest Aintree going (correct 1330 BST on 07/04/2023)
Chase & Hurdle (Mildmay Course): Good
Grand National Course: Good, Good to Soft (in places)
There was 1.2mm of rain on Wednesday and 1.8mm on Thursday. The forecast is for dry conditions with plenty of sunshine from today through to Sunday. There is the prospect of further rain, perhaps heavy at times, on Monday. Conditions are predicted to remain unsettled next week, with a mixture of sunny spells and showers.
PS Accuweather forecasting 35mm total of rain spread Mon~Fri next week for Liverpool, and 100% cloud cover on race-day.
Confirmed runners in the Irish GN on Monday that also have GN entries:
Royale Pagaille (#4 in the GN weights) Defi Bleu #46 Gevrey #47 Punitive #48 Milan Native #49 Fakiera #51 Reserve 2 - Darrens Hope #53
So Dunboyne (as expected) and Diol Ker scratched from Fairyhouse.
Royale Pagaille's probable scratching (may depend on whether exits early on Monday) from Aintree means Fortescue gets another crack (assuming Battleoverdoyen is a non-runner, as said) and Back On The Lash needs 1 more to defect by next Thursday's declarations to get a run.
Assuming all those (excl the Reserve) due to line up at Fairyhouse are scratched for Aintree, it also means only 47 would remain standing for the big one.
BTW, for the Irish GN, my first selection is JP's latest purchase, I Am Maximus 14/1.
Carrying 11-01, aside from a near-miss over the course (always a handy box to have ticked), the 7 year old has a strong pedigree for a stamina-test, sharing Tiger Roll's sire (Authorized) and being nicely linebred to Wild Risk. Distantly related to Little Polveir, one of my GN winners of yore, when my model was a mere flashing cursor in an A1 cell
And 2nd on my e/w team sheet for Monday's Irish GN is 8yo Farceur Du Large 40/1. Unexposed >24f but his staying-on 8th (6L) in the PP Hdcp in December suggests a trip will see him at his best. 5L behind Panda Boy (10/1 for Monday) that day at level weights but now has a 5lb lower relative mark and has a claimer taking off another 5lbs - carrying just 9-10. Pedigree reinforces impression he'll be progressive over further, sharing his 4th Dam with Balthazar King and Damsire Cadoudal with the likes of Yala Enki. A course winner, always a plus in this.
The last mare to win the Irish GN was Bluesea Cracker, who carried my shilling to victory on Soft in 2010.
There are 4 running tomorrow (6 if the reserves get a run) and Kim Muir winner Angel’s Dawn (also went well in the Irish GN Trial before a late UR) is understandably well fanced (12/1). But it’s one from the yard of last year’s 6th (Velvet Elvis), near the bottom of the weights that piques my interest for e/w value - Must Be Obeyed 28/1. 1st season chaser, mixing it with the fellas she’s won 2 of her 5 over fences to date, including at Fairyhouse; also accounting for Mahler Mission, who appeared to have Gaillard Du Mesnil beaten before departing late at the Festival (translating to her probably being nicely well-in with Chemical Energy, 14/1 for tomorrow). Unexposed >25f, though she’ll be 1lb O/H on 10-00, she shapes as though she’ll be progressive over further and will certainly appreciate the likely soft ground. Small but tough, she’s closely related to 2012 Irish GN winner Lion Na Bearnai, who also hailed from Tom Gibney's yard.
The last mare to win the Irish GN was Bluesea Cracker, who carried my shilling to victory on Soft in 2010.
There are 4 running tomorrow (6 if the reserves get a run) and Kim Muir winner Angel’s Dawn (also went well in the Irish GN Trial before a late UR) is understandably well fanced (12/1). But it’s one from the yard of last year’s 6th (Velvet Elvis), near the bottom of the weights that piques my interest for e/w value - Must Be Obeyed 28/1. 1st season chaser, mixing it with the fellas she’s won 2 of her 5 over fences to date, including at Fairyhouse; also accounting for Mahler Mission, who appeared to have Gaillard Du Mesnil beaten before departing late at the Festival (translating to her probably being nicely well-in with Chemical Energy, 14/1 for tomorrow). Unexposed >25f, though she’ll be 1lb O/H on 10-00, she shapes as though she’ll be progressive over further and will certainly appreciate the likely soft ground. Small but tough, she’s closely related to 2012 Irish GN winner Lion Na Bearnai, who also hailed from Tom Gibney's yard.
If you fancy backing (She Who) Must Be Obeyed, you can get 50/1 at Coral (6 places) if you nip in quick.
I haven't a clue about horses or horse racing. However, I love reading PeanutsMolloy's posts. The knowledge and obvious dedication to his sport is brilliant to see. Once again I will pick a couple to back based on his opinion and be happy to watch them compete whatever happens.
I haven't a clue about horses or horse racing. However, I love reading PeanutsMolloy's posts. The knowledge and obvious dedication to his sport is brilliant to see. Once again I will pick a couple to back based on his opinion and be happy to watch them compete whatever happens.
Couldn’t agree more and Peanuts if you have or ever do write a book on the subject I would definitely buy and read it.
Comments
Bottom weight this year is 10-02, not 10-00, so any runners with GNOR142 or lower (unless their OR has been uprated since the GN weights were allotted, as in the case of Our Power, increased to OR147), will be running Out-of-the-Handicap ("O/H").
That already includes Recite A Prayer and Eva's Oskar, who will make the cut and be 1lb O/H, assuming Any Second Now is declared as topweight on 13 April.
O/H runners have not fared well since Bobbyjo’s famous win when 14lbs wrong in 1999 (since when 2 from 43 made the frame, 4 & 5th [<7% of first 5 home from 18% of runners]) and certainly being materially O/H has to be a major disadvantage in a large field now with quality opposition.
But the race and complexion of the field is meaningfully different to when O/H runners were commonplace, perhaps in ways more forgiving of certain O/H runners. Aside from no longer having significant weight "compression" at the top of the weights, which increasingly came into vogue immediately following Bobbyjo's win:
1. We have hugely more Irish representation (15% of fields from 2000~2004 compared to c.75% this year) and, as we know, the translation of Irish marks to British races is a matter of heated debate.
2. In stark contrast to earlier times, younger horses (including those unexposed over 26f+) now outperform (e.g. Noble Yeats off only GNOR 147 last year)
Only 1 GN since the crucial fence changes has seen O/H runners. That was 2013 when there were 3, all British-trained, up to 3lbs wrong. Of these, Soll finished 7th when 2lbs O/H.
This year, running with the minimum 10-02, 2 of my model's selections will be running O/H, though both need their preferred ground (probably even to line up):
- Dunboyne 2lbs O/H - An 8yo Irish 1st season chaser, unexposed >26f but related to the stamina-Queen Miss Parfois, it will make minimal difference IMO to his chances. He has a Winning Calibre rating and the strongest GN-starred pedigree in the field.
- Back On The Lash 3lbs O/H on his GNOR140 - He was (bizarrely) dropped 2lbs to 138 after PU in the XC so technically he's 5lbs wrong but that's inexplicably stupid IMO as he hates Soft ground (he did exactly the same at the 2022 Festival when the XC was run on Soft). The bottom line is that, even with 10-02, he'll still have two very interesting pluses for a 66/1 shot:
- 5lb weight advantage on paper vs Delta Work, based on their 1st and 3rd in the handicap XC in January on GS. In receipt of 16lbs (the same as he'll receive on 15 April), BOTL beat him 5L that day. Of course that was a very different race to the big one (4f shorter for starters) and probably Delta W wasn't fully tuned but it's more likely than not that the ground will favour BOTL on 15 April and, while every extra 1lb may prove crucial at the line, IMO it will make little difference to his ability to be competitive and be in the mix at the business end, providing he gets his sound surface.
- As already mentioned, 9 yo BOTL enjoys a rare array of Damsires 1~3, each of which have offspring that won a G1 at 10f+. Also, with form at 29f+, only 10 runners (7 different horses) in the GNs 2013~22 (7.6%) ticked both of those boxes but they include 5 of the 9 winners (Auroras Encore, Rule The World, One For Arthur and Tiger Roll), runner-up Cause of Causes and 5th place Rare Bob. Only Minella Rocco ticked both and flopped in the GN. It's no guarantee of anything but it's a hell of a strong statistical correlation.
Others that would be O/H (based on current British ORs or GNORs for the Irish):Announced yesterday that Envoi Allen will be scratched, meaning one of Dunboyne or Francky Du Berlais is now guaranteed a run.
Back On The Lash needs 3 more to come out from those above him, of which 16 also hold entries for the Irish GN (12) or Topham (4).
There is talk of not having a full field of 40 this year, with only 54 now standing. By my reckoning it will be touch and go.
I'd say a maximum of 9 of the 16 above BOTL with alternative entries are possible defections. 7 of the 11 below him also have entries for Fairyhouse (6) and/or the Topham (2) and, as they'd be 4~15lbs O/H in the GN, it would seem likely that a number of those will take up their earlier, alternative engagement.
Delta Work
Galvin
Fury Road
Escaria Ten
Coko beach
Dunboyne (in first time blinkers)
Seemingly no Battleoverdoyen, sadly. Presumably another spin around in the Topham on Friday for him.
Says Gordon:
“Delta Work was third in the race last year, he got a little bit far back early but ran a very good race,” continued Elliott. “He was a little careful early but he’s in great form and I couldn’t be happier with him, he’s working very well. Galvin – the drier the ground, the better a chance he has. He will have come on a lot from Cheltenham, he’s in good form and I’m very happy with him.”
Galvin – the drier the ground, the better a chance he has. He will have come on a lot from Cheltenham, he’s in good form and I’m very happy with him.
Coko Beach ran very well in the race last year and finished eighth. He won the Grand National Trial at Punchestown.
For Fury Road it is the first time stepping up to this trip. He’s a Grade One horse and a classy horse. Again a bit of nice ground would suit him, but he’s in very, very good form.
Escaria Ten travelled well for a long way last year but just didn’t get home. We’re going to drop him in and take our time with him, ride him a little bit different this year.
Dunboyne gets in off 10st. He’s going to wear blinkers and stays really well. If he gets into a rhythm and doesn’t get too far back early, he will come home strong."
So now I'm confused. Either the minimum weight is indeed 10-00, as I'd originally thought, or someone had better tell Gordon that Dunboyne will be 2lbs O/H. It might matter to him more than it does to me. I'm more concerned about the ground - the softer the better for him as it's less likely he'll get too far back.
But if the blinkers focus him a bit, who knows? Maybe he can stay in touch on GS. I certainly agree that if he's within striking distance at the Melling Road, he's got the profile to come home strong.
This morning, 12 of the top 42 in the GN weights also had entries for the Irish GN next Monday.
Today, 9 of them have been scratched from the Fairyhouse marathon, leaving only Royale Pagaille, Diol Ker and (curiously, given Elliott’s comments to the Sporting Life) Dunboyne, plus most of those lower in the GN weights with the Irish GN option.
If Battleoverdoyen is to go for the Topham and not the GN at Aintree, then both Dunboyne and Francky Du Berlais are guaranteed a run on 15 April and Back On The Lash needs 2 more to come out to line up.
But it looks a little tighter now.
Many are put off by a horse donning blinkers in a GN but are they right?
Since 1997, 115 runners (11.2%) of all 1024 GN runners have worn blinkers.
They've contributed:
- 3 winners (11.5%) - Earth Summit 1997, Comply Or Die 2008 and Tiger Roll 2019 (he wore cheekpieces in 2018)
- 4 runners-up (2 of them <3L) and 2 finishing 3rd (11.1% of first 3 home)
So, bang in line with representation.Ah but 75 of those 115 (65.2%) failed to finish, I hear you say (or maybe not, if you're sane enough not to have done the math). It must be shit or bust, yes?
Nope, because 65.6% of runners without blinkers also failed to finish.
So, overall, there is no statistical correlation whatsoever between wearing blinkers and GN success or failure.
However, that doesn't necessarily mean that donning them, particularly first-time, will have no effect. There are plenty of cases of horses running poorly in first-time blinkers but also of it yielding remarkable results, at least for a few races.
For example, the dour stayer Milansbar as a 10yo had got into the habit of dropping himself out the back of his races and hadn't won for 2 years (failing to complete in 4 of 6 races) before first-time blinkers (and the persuasive charms of Bryony Frost) transformed him into the pillar-to-post 11L winner of the Warwick Classic, prior to placing 2nd in the Midlands National (under an amateur) and 5th in the 2018 GN.
Can they help Dunboyne stay in touch? The answer is definitely they can but it's anybody's guess if they will. For sure, either way, his best chance would still be on Soft.
And more specifically, in the context of Dunboyne (a regular wearer of Cheekpieces) potentially donning first-time blinkers on 15 April.
Just 5 runners since 1998 wore first-time blinkers in a GN:
2007 Naunton Brook - PU (no headgear previously, only tongue-tie)
2008 Dun Doire - PU (no headgear previously)
2017 Saint Are - 3rd (regular wearer of Cheekpieces, in which was 2nd GN 2015)
2017 Doctor Harper - PU (worn Cheekpieces once)
2021 Potters Corner - PU (had worn Cheekpieces occasionally but not for or since Welsh GN win 15 months earlier)
Way too small a sample to draw meaningful conclusions, of course, but it stands to reason that familiarity with other headgear, as is the case with Dunboyne, might aid the cause even if the purpose is to provoke a reaction of sorts.
In terms of prior headgear experience of blinker-wearing GN winners or near-missers:
Earth Summit - had worn them routinely for 4+ years
Whats Up Boys (2nd 2002) - wore them only in previous race (Gold Cup when 5th) (never worn other headgear)
Comply Or Die - wore them only twice in previous races (2nd in Tommy Whittle and won Eider) (never worn other headgear)
Tiger Roll - had worn Pieces or Blinkers on and off for years but hadn't worn blinkers for 2 years until 2 races prior to 2019 GN - galvanising him to successive wins after a lacklustre seasonal bow in Cheekpieces
Any Second Now (2nd 2022) - almost all races for 3 years
He tipped Santini last year which I also backed at 50/1 and it finished 4th.
On Soft ground, for sure. He'd be my model's NAP, just pipping Delta Work.
But unlike DW, on paper you'd say Dunboyne MUST have Soft ground or slower. His record on anything officially better than Soft makes for grim reading:
4/10 12L (24f PtP)
11/20 12.5L (24f hrdl)
8/18 28L (20f hrdl)
11/23 21L (24.5f hrdl)
13/24 33L (24f hrdl)
6/9 23L (24f ch)
RR (this is to be ignored IMO as it was a shambolic start into low sun - another runner also nearly RR)
PU (21f ch)
If Elliott is to be believed, he will line up at Aintree (we'll know for sure with tomorrow's declarations for Fairyhouse, for which he's still entered) and so NRNB doesn't protect us from quicker ground. But his profile (particularly his GN starred Pedigree) is so strong that, at 50/1, I've happily taken that risk and backed him e/w.
And though I usually rapidly regret backing soft-ground lovers (even with course form) in a GN on quicker than Soft (Kimberlite Candy and Snow Leopardess most recently), I wouldn't rule Dunboyne out entirely if the Official Going is Good to Soft ("GS"), for several reasons:
1. Until he attempts 34f, we won't know for sure whether he actually needs it Soft or simply a sterner test of stamina. He has looked outpaced in some of his races over 3m on Yielding but his staying-on 4th (13L) in the 26f Kim Muir at the Festival supports a degree of optimism. While run on officially Soft and it certainly looked soft on top, the winning time suggests it rode closer to GS. Over a mile further, there's certainly hope if he gets similar ground.
2. “There is nothing more deceptive than an obvious fact” (Holmes, S)
What is Aintree "Good to Soft"?
18 of the last 20 GNs have been run on Officially Good to Soft. These include 2006, won by mud-lover Numbersixvalverde in a time 31 secs slow of standard. In those days, it had to be a swamp to call the ground worse than GS. Even Earth Summit's win in 1998 (6 finishers, winning time 1m42s slow) was officially just "Soft".
Things flipped on their head after the terrible fatalities of 2012, largely caused IMHO by repeated renewals on ground described as Good but manifestly riding at least as Good to Firm (despite bigger fences then, each of the 2010~12 GNs were run at a speed of c.15 secs per furlong, compared to the quickest GN since of 15.76 spf).
Fast ground will never be seen again in the GN but also they'll now NEVER admit to the ground being any better than GS, even though in 4 of the last 9 GNs it has ridden as (safe but) genuine Good ground.
Since 2013, Aintree’s “Good to Soft” has embraced winning times ranging from 7 seconds FAST of standard in 2015 to 11.5 secs SLOW in 2021 - that's equivalent to Many Clouds with 11-09 hitting the line 90L (comfortably more than a furlong) clear of Minella Times with 10-03.
The truth is, even in the most competitive chase of them all, genuine GS should never give rise to times 3+ seconds FAST of standard, as it did in 2015 and 2019.
That GS was, in truth, Good ground and Dunboyne would surely struggle to stay in touch on that. But on the genuine GS of 2013 or 2021, there's hope.
3. Always a risk but first-time blinkers could sharpen him up early and help him stay at least in the same county on quicker than ideal ground.
My post yesterday looked at the impact (or not) of blinkers and, as a regular wearer of Cheekpieces, he's certainly a reasonable candidate for them having a galvanising effect. If so and fortune smiles, a soft-ground horse can deliver on GS.
Famously in 2009, when front-running Black Apalachi tipped up at the 22nd causing the searching pace he'd set to slow, it was late enough to have kiboshed the chances of those that had tried to go with him but early enough to permit soft-ground loving Mon Mome to stay on from the rear and romp to victory from the last (and for fellow 100/1 shot Cerium to do likewise, making 5th).
In conclusion, given that we'll not know how the ground will ride until the race itself, he's a must-have for me on my e/w team. But you pays ya money, you takes ya choice.
While we're on the subject of ground and specific runners' chances, it’s a little simpler with horses that need a decent surface (riding as Good).
Aside from the wetter the ground the sterner the stamina test, that alone narrows down the field considerably, horses that need a decent surface typically don’t travel or jump well on Soft ground (believe it or not, it can be that they have relatively small hooves). Even those with multiple GN successes under their belt on GS can be defeated by Soft; as Saint Are was in 2016 and 2018.
Back On The Lash is one of those runners that absolutely needs (effectively) Good ground. "Good to Soft" a la 2015, 2017, 2019 and 2022 would be fine but, while I'm sure he'll line up if it's Good to Soft of any type, his trainer's said (understandably) he won't run if it's Soft. No point.
If they've had plenty of rain as they did in March and the water table's probably high, they're obviously less likely to put water on the course.
Ditto, if there's rain in the forecast.
I guess they'll just be watering a little as and when to aim to keep it pretty much as it probably is now - genuine GS.
Drainage is excellent these days, having been improved massively after the mud-baths of Miinnehoma, Earth Summit and Red Marauder's GNs and IMO the biggest chance of a properly Soft or Heavy ground GN like 2016 and 2018 is if they've had it dry and have been watering a lot but there's unexpected, significant rain on race-day or even Friday.
I doubt that will apply this year, so for it to be Soft, it will have to be courtesy of the Rain Gods.
At this point, I'd say if the forecast for 4~8mm rain daily through next week proves correct, they won't have to water and it will probably be genuine GS (i.e. something like Minella Times in 2021 at 11 secs slow).
That would accommodate most horses bar (probably) Back On The Lash and would be about as quick as soft ground horses could hope to handle. On that sort of ground, Delta Work would be my NAP.
Sorry, I know that's absolutely no help at all.
Where is he when you want him (.... or not)?
Hot off the press:
Latest Aintree going (correct 1330 BST on 07/04/2023)
There was 1.2mm of rain on Wednesday and 1.8mm on Thursday. The forecast is for dry conditions with plenty of sunshine from today through to Sunday. There is the prospect of further rain, perhaps heavy at times, on Monday. Conditions are predicted to remain unsettled next week, with a mixture of sunny spells and showers.
PS Accuweather forecasting 35mm total of rain spread Mon~Fri next week for Liverpool, and 100% cloud cover on race-day.
Confirmed runners in the Irish GN on Monday that also have GN entries:
Royale Pagaille (#4 in the GN weights)
Defi Bleu #46
Gevrey #47
Punitive #48
Milan Native #49
Fakiera #51
Reserve 2 - Darrens Hope #53
So Dunboyne (as expected) and Diol Ker scratched from Fairyhouse.
Royale Pagaille's probable scratching (may depend on whether exits early on Monday) from Aintree means Fortescue gets another crack (assuming Battleoverdoyen is a non-runner, as said) and Back On The Lash needs 1 more to defect by next Thursday's declarations to get a run.
Assuming all those (excl the Reserve) due to line up at Fairyhouse are scratched for Aintree, it also means only 47 would remain standing for the big one.
BTW, for the Irish GN, my first selection is JP's latest purchase, I Am Maximus 14/1.
Carrying 11-01, aside from a near-miss over the course (always a handy box to have ticked), the 7 year old has a strong pedigree for a stamina-test, sharing Tiger Roll's sire (Authorized) and being nicely linebred to Wild Risk. Distantly related to Little Polveir, one of my GN winners of yore, when my model was a mere flashing cursor in an A1 cell
Unexposed >24f but his staying-on 8th (6L) in the PP Hdcp in December suggests a trip will see him at his best. 5L behind Panda Boy (10/1 for Monday) that day at level weights but now has a 5lb lower relative mark and has a claimer taking off another 5lbs - carrying just 9-10.
Pedigree reinforces impression he'll be progressive over further, sharing his 4th Dam with Balthazar King and Damsire Cadoudal with the likes of Yala Enki.
A course winner, always a plus in this.
But it’s one from the yard of last year’s 6th (Velvet Elvis), near the bottom of the weights that piques my interest for e/w value - Must Be Obeyed 28/1.
1st season chaser, mixing it with the fellas she’s won 2 of her 5 over fences to date, including at Fairyhouse; also accounting for Mahler Mission, who appeared to have Gaillard Du Mesnil beaten before departing late at the Festival (translating to her probably being nicely well-in with Chemical Energy, 14/1 for tomorrow).
Unexposed >25f, though she’ll be 1lb O/H on 10-00, she shapes as though she’ll be progressive over further and will certainly appreciate the likely soft ground.
Small but tough, she’s closely related to 2012 Irish GN winner Lion Na Bearnai, who also hailed from Tom Gibney's yard.