Grand National 2023

A Wave Of The Sea has been nibbled at - into as short as 66 with some. However Paddy Power have him at 125/1 (6 places)

He is a shit or bust selection but, for reasons explained earlier, he's in the ballpark of having the right profile (Archetype 2 - unexposed, potentially progressive youngster) and does have some rare components to his damside pedigree that suggest he could cause one hell of a shock.
My reading of that pedigree is that slower ground would provide his best chance.


Just a reminder from earlier posts of the key pedigree stats:

Of the 356 runners in the 9 GNs 2013~22:

1. 78 of them (21.9%) had a Damsire that had offspring (as sire or damsire) that had won a G1 at 10f+ on the flat AND a 2nd or 3rd Damsire that had either done likewise or had Damsired a GN 1st~4th.

That 21.9% contributed 7 of the 9 winners (77.8%) and another 3 of the 7 finishing <5L of them (62.5% of winners and near-missers). Indeed it accounted for 42.2% of all 1st~5th in those GNs. In other words, 1 in 4 of runners ticking this box made the frame (compared to a random distribution of 1 in 8)

Of this year's entries down to #60 at the weights, the following ticked this box:

• The Big Dog
• Capodanno
• Coko Beach
• Le Milos
• Cape Gentleman
• Roi Mage
• A Wave Of The Sea
• Minella Trump
• Velvet Elvis
• Ain't That A Shame
• Mister Incredible
• Mister Coffey
• Ashtown Lad
• Our Power
• Dunboyne
• Back On The Lash

2. 41 of the 356 GN runners 2013~22 (11.5%) had the genetically-electric combo on the damside of Wild Risk and Bold Ruler.

That 11.5% contributed 5 of the 9 winners (55.6%) and another 3 near-missers (50% of winners and near-missers). It accounted for 28.9% of all 1st~5th. Thus, 1 in 3 of them made the frame (again compared to 1 in 8, if outcomes were random).

Of this year's remaining entries down to #60 at the weights, the following ticked this box:

• Conflated (probably to be scratched)
• Delta Work
• Lifetime Ambition
• Coko Beach
• Longhouse Poet
• A Wave Of The Sea
• Dunboyne

Combination. If we put these 2 stats together, just 13 of the 356 runners (only 9 different horses) 2013~22 ticked both boxes. They were:

2013: Tatenen - Fell at 12th fence
2016: Rule The World - Won
2017: One For Arthur - Won
2018: Tiger Roll - Won
2019: Tiger Roll - Won / Magic of Light - 2nd (2.75L) / One For Arthur - 6th / Rock The Kasbah - BD
2021: Minella Times - Won / Magic Of Light - UR 4th fence
2022: Fiddlerontheroof 5th / Minella Times - BD / Coko Beach - 8th

So, 13 runs produced 5 winners and 3 places. 5 of the 9 different horses ticking both boxes were a winner or near-misser. 


Of this year's runners 3 tick both boxes:

• Coko Beach (didn't get home last time and runs off 5lb higher GNOR this year)
• A Wave Of The Sea (shit or bust - Minella Times or Tatenen)
• Dunboyne (due to carry just 10-00, he's also by Yeats, who sired last year's GN winner Noble Yeats)

Will he take to the fences?
Will he get the trip?

In short, we don't know but he is related to Cause of Causes, close 2nd in the 2017 GN 2017 and with a combo at wild prices on Betfair, I've happily got him on my team.

Watch out for the JP Green & Gold with red cap.

Off_it said:

OK @PeanutsMolloy, old son. Where am I sticking my shekels this year then?

Cheers

@Athletico Charlton picked out the list above Chief.
Hope they come good.
Cheers

Records in the GN of some of the Jockeys on fancied runners tomorrow:

Paul Townend (Gaillard Du Mesnil) - 11 rides: 0UFP0PPPPUU
Aidan Coleman (The Big Dog) - 14 rides: 0FFFPUUF00PP2P
Sean Bowen (Noble Yeats) - 7 rides: 000PPP0
Sam Twiston-Davies (Our Power) - 12 rides: 5P7PU0PFBPR0

PeanutsMolloy said:

Records in the GN of some of the Jockeys on fancied runners tomorrow:

Paul Townend (Gaillard Du Mesnil) - 11 rides: 0UFP0PPPPUU
Aidan Coleman (The Big Dog) - 14 rides: 0FFFPUUF00PP2P
Sean Bowen (Noble Yeats) - 7 rides: 000PPP0
Sam Twiston-Davies (Our Power) - 12 rides: 5P7PU0PFBPR0

4 top jocks, 44 rides: wins 0, places 2

Tough life being a NH jockey

bobmunro said:

Win, lose or draw - best of luck to everyone today, especially the majestic horses and very brave jockeys.

Well said @bobmunro

And cheers for your kind comment. Very glad it's a popular read. 
Thanks to everyone who's made contributions to the thread - all of them very welcome indeed.
And to those who've shown confidence in some or all of my model's fancies.
It's done alright for me for a while now but truly sincere apologies in advance if today's the day this



turns to 




It will surely happen one day but if it is to be today, I hope at least one of the wilder ones gives us the buzz of a big run for a long way, like Swing Bill (6th at 80/1) in 2013 , Vic's Canvas (3rd at 80) in 2016 and Freewheelin Dylan (7th at 100) last year.

Blimey, all of them had bloke's names - maybe I should have a nibble of Francky Du Berlais (actually he could run really well for a long way but I just don't think he'll get home) or Sam Brown    

Let's hope they all come back safe and sound.
Cheers all.