What are the chances of either the Tory ERG members or the Tory Remainers (or both) supporting a no-confidence vote in the government as this would probably lead to a general election. In that case Theresa May would have to resign (as she has promised not too stand at the next election) clearing the way for a new leader who is sympathetic to their cause.
They would then of course have to win the ensuing election, but perhaps they see that as being more likely than getting what they want under May. For the ERG it is probably a once in a lifetime opportunity to get a hard Brexit.
You might persuade a handful of Tories to vote with a Labour vote of no confidence but I think pretty much to a man (woman) they would support the government. The parliamentary party view of Brexit will be vastly different from the constituency party view. Would be a very brave Tory MP to assist Labour in bringing down a Tory government.
FWIW. I don’t think Labour will bring a vote of no confidence forward. I’m convinced they would lose it under any circumstance and won’t risk it. Once the deal is defeated in the HoC I think they will throw their weight behind a second referendum.
Corbyn will be desperately trying to avoid this option because that opens up the possibility of remain and we all know he’s just as keen to leave as JRM
I can see the possibility of the ERG Tories voting with the opposition to get an election/change of leader with the ultimate goal of getting a hard Brexit. I believe the ERG want it that badly and how different is this from voting against May's Brexit deal which could effectively have the same result.
As I have said before, anything can happen. When we first started discussing what would happen next with the Brexit bill who foresaw the pulling of it at the last moment followed by a Tory no-confidence vote. Who predicted May lurching around the EU desperately looking (in vain) for support.
I also think that Labour would lose a no-confidence vote, unless the ERG got behind them which is why I speculate about possibilities. Also why do you think Corbyn is as keen to leave as JRM? I don't think that can be supported by any evidence other than by what people choose to believe. Corbyn has said that he voted Leave and would do so again, he leads a parliamentary party which is 98% remain and probably 70% of its voters are remain too. He might well be crap on Brexit but he does not have the same wishes as Mogg as to its outcome.
Edit function m8
Sad thing is that i was trying to press m and 8 to get to an edit function. Could you refrain from using popular text speech please.
What are the chances of either the Tory ERG members or the Tory Remainers (or both) supporting a no-confidence vote in the government as this would probably lead to a general election. In that case Theresa May would have to resign (as she has promised not too stand at the next election) clearing the way for a new leader who is sympathetic to their cause.
They would then of course have to win the ensuing election, but perhaps they see that as being more likely than getting what they want under May. For the ERG it is probably a once in a lifetime opportunity to get a hard Brexit.
You might persuade a handful of Tories to vote with a Labour vote of no confidence but I think pretty much to a man (woman) they would support the government. The parliamentary party view of Brexit will be vastly different from the constituency party view. Would be a very brave Tory MP to assist Labour in bringing down a Tory government.
FWIW. I don’t think Labour will bring a vote of no confidence forward. I’m convinced they would lose it under any circumstance and won’t risk it. Once the deal is defeated in the HoC I think they will throw their weight behind a second referendum.
Corbyn will be desperately trying to avoid this option because that opens up the possibility of remain and we all know he’s just as keen to leave as JRM
I can see the possibility of the ERG Tories voting with the opposition to get an election/change of leader with the ultimate goal of getting a hard Brexit. I believe the ERG want it that badly and how different is this from voting against May's Brexit deal which could effectively have the same result.
As I have said before, anything can happen. When we first started discussing what would happen next with the Brexit bill who foresaw the pulling of it at the last moment followed by a Tory no-confidence vote. Who predicted May lurching around the EU desperately looking (in vain) for support.
I also think that Labour would lose a no-confidence vote, unless the ERG got behind them which is why I speculate about possibilities. Also why do you think Corbyn is as keen to leave as JRM? I don't think that can be supported by any evidence other than by what people choose to believe. Corbyn has said that he voted Leave and would do so again, he leads a parliamentary party which is 98% remain and probably 70% of its voters are remain too. He might well be crap on Brexit but he does not have the same wishes as Mogg as to its outcome.
That’s why ;0)
That's it kick me when I am down...
Are you still moving by the way?
That’s the intention still, but the housing market is dire at the moment. Who in their right minds would commit to a house purchase right now.
What are the chances of either the Tory ERG members or the Tory Remainers (or both) supporting a no-confidence vote in the government as this would probably lead to a general election. In that case Theresa May would have to resign (as she has promised not too stand at the next election) clearing the way for a new leader who is sympathetic to their cause.
They would then of course have to win the ensuing election, but perhaps they see that as being more likely than getting what they want under May. For the ERG it is probably a once in a lifetime opportunity to get a hard Brexit.
You might persuade a handful of Tories to vote with a Labour vote of no confidence but I think pretty much to a man (woman) they would support the government. The parliamentary party view of Brexit will be vastly different from the constituency party view. Would be a very brave Tory MP to assist Labour in bringing down a Tory government.
FWIW. I don’t think Labour will bring a vote of no confidence forward. I’m convinced they would lose it under any circumstance and won’t risk it. Once the deal is defeated in the HoC I think they will throw their weight behind a second referendum.
Corbyn will be desperately trying to avoid this option because that opens up the possibility of remain and we all know he’s just as keen to leave as JRM
I can see the possibility of the ERG Tories voting with the opposition to get an election/change of leader with the ultimate goal of getting a hard Brexit. I believe the ERG want it that badly and how different is this from voting against May's Brexit deal which could effectively have the same result.
As I have said before, anything can happen. When we first started discussing what would happen next with the Brexit bill who foresaw the pulling of it at the last moment followed by a Tory no-confidence vote. Who predicted May lurching around the EU desperately looking (in vain) for support.
I also think that Labour would lose a no-confidence vote, unless the ERG got behind them which is why I speculate about possibilities. Also why do you think Corbyn is as keen to leave as JRM? I don't think that can be supported by any evidence other than by what people choose to believe. Corbyn has said that he voted Leave and would do so again, he leads a parliamentary party which is 98% remain and probably 70% of its voters are remain too. He might well be crap on Brexit but he does not have the same wishes as Mogg as to its outcome.
That’s why ;0)
That's it kick me when I am down...
Are you still moving by the way?
That’s the intention still, but the housing market is dire at the moment. Who in their right minds would commit to a house purchase right now.
I assume that is on the selling end in the South East?
Problem is once you know what you could of got it takes a long time to decide to take a lower amount, prices down here are holding up mainly because in most places they weren't extortionate to begin with.
I have to say hearing people talk around the country, I'm far from confident that Remain would win more votes than Brexit, if it was a simple choice between the two.
I'm far from convinced that this thread reflects the overall feeling of the British public. You also need to bear in mind that a number of the most frequent posters on this thread live abroad and most of the pro Brexit posters that have participated in this thread, no longer do so.
Regarding voting Brexit to reduce the staggering property prices in London and the South East, that was undoubtedly one of my reasons and it has already proved to have been correct, with Central London prices already falling significantly.
I'm surprised some posters seem concerned at having to pay £7 every 3 years and yet haven't voiced concerns, that young people in the London area have little chance of owning their own home before 35/40, unless they earn a significant sum or receive financial assistance from their family.
You don't need Brexit to get house prices down though. You need proper regulation. Essentially, you voted Brexit to tank the economy...on purpose? Pretty punk I guess
It was one of the reasons, plus your previous attitude on here pushed me over the edge and I have no doubt that sort of attitude also persuaded many people to vote Brexit for the same reason. NB I think your attitude has mellowed somewhat and I'm genuinely not wishing to start a row, because I'm beyond all that.
Of course, and I am not looking to row, but it does seem odd (and maybe even a little heartening) that a regular Tory voter would throw his vote behind fiscal chaos and economic shrinkage. There's more than one way to skin the inequality cat, of course, but maybe Brexit would force us to think creatively...aah no what am I saying
Well, the reason of course is that I have 2 sons aged 26 & 23 who have no chance of buying their own property in the SE London/North Kent area (local), unless I assist by possibly taking out a lifetime mortgage on my house.
I saved up and moved out of my parents council house age 25, to start a new life free to do as I wish. This is my personal main concern. I don't see why they should have to rent (pay someone else's mortgage) or live with their parents indefinitely.
Me and Mrs Hex live in N Kent, inside the M25 and have managed to get our 4 kids on the housing ladder so it is not impossible. We have not given any direct financial contibutions although we did give them back their housekeeping/rent money they had paid us. Two of them started with shared ownership. They do not have highly paig jobs - far from it ! The process for getting one of them a mortgage was probably more difficult than negotiating Brexit. But we did it.
As others have said, the possibility of lower house prices is no reason whatsoever to support Brexit.
I have to say hearing people talk around the country, I'm far from confident that Remain would win more votes than Brexit, if it was a simple choice between the two.
I'm far from convinced that this thread reflects the overall feeling of the British public. You also need to bear in mind that a number of the most frequent posters on this thread live abroad and most of the pro Brexit posters that have participated in this thread, no longer do so.
Regarding voting Brexit to reduce the staggering property prices in London and the South East, that was undoubtedly one of my reasons and it has already proved to have been correct, with Central London prices already falling significantly.
I'm surprised some posters seem concerned at having to pay £7 every 3 years and yet haven't voiced concerns, that young people in the London area have little chance of owning their own home before 35/40, unless they earn a significant sum or receive financial assistance from their family.
Your overall point about representation of this thread is valid. I never kid myself that this thread is representative of anything much beyond the people on it, however its hard not to see your point about "posters living abroad who regularly post here" as a repeat of a tiresome dig(you will be referring to me, C.Madrid, and Algarve, so that's three. THREE). Today you have CAFCsayer posting, who has told us he lives and works in Switzerland and that he is a supporter of Rees-Mogg.
More relevant is probably the poll on here before the referendum which if I recall was 54-46 Remain, so there is certainly an inbuilt bias among CL regulars who are motivated enough to post on threads about politics. I thought it was really interesting to hear from Sunbury Addick recently, not just that he had changed his mind, but why. Then again, there have not exactly been many such "changers" confessing on here; funny enough you are one, and of course your reasons were not exactly a new found love for EU membership. All of which sort of reflects the small shift to Remain in the polls. Within those polls I would recommend to trust only regular trackers which use telephone or personal interview techniques; internet polls are worse than useless. And particular attention to those pollsters whose sampling techniques have learnt the lessons of the last two national votes.
I also think your view of the housing market is a bit,well, broad-brush. As I've several times mentioned, I established some 3 years ago that taking 1993, the year I left for CZ, as the benchmark, the salary of my job has increased by 80-100%, whereas the value of my house in that period had increased by 500%. What that should tell you is that the rise in London housing is due to long term structural factors, which many of us have also mentioned. It doesn't help for example if you give non-dom status to rich and dodgy foreign oligarchs, and then are surprised when they buy up half of central London, and that this causes a ripple effect which certainly reaches Eltham or Surbiton. It then follows, that if you wanted mortgages to be affordable again for ordinary people , the fall in prices would have to be absolutely precipitous, since I was already well above average earner when I had my mortgaged house in 1993. I am kind of surprised you haven't done the maths a bit more thoroughly.
To your final point I trust you exclude me from that jibe too, since I have constantly listed the housing issue as one of the top 5 issues that seem to me to be top of most people's political agenda, and which in fact have no connection with Brexit, as they can be addressed by the national government with 100% freedom (along with NHS, elderly care, transport and infrastructure, higher education, and increasingly, police resources).
But admittedly you are at the Valley today and I am not, so in that sense you do have the moral high ground :-) I hope it will have been worth braving the foul weather and I am glad that you and others do it.
CE Do you think people are maybe becoming Brexiters because of the way they see the EU 27 acting ? Sheer bloodymindedness by the British ?
Do you think there is another way the EU should be acting? I wonder what it is exactly that the EU is supposed to have done wrong/better.
Unfortunately the Press report things like" Mrs. May returns from Brussels with her tail between her legs " and they will not consider any further renegotiation etc. and some gullible people become anti Johnny Foreigner
CE Do you think people are maybe becoming Brexiters because of the way they see the EU 27 acting ? Sheer bloodymindedness by the British ?
Do you think there is another way the EU should be acting? I wonder what it is exactly that the EU is supposed to have done wrong/better.
Unfortunately the Press report things like" Mrs. May returns from Brussels with her tail between her legs " and they will not consider any further renegotiation etc. and some gullible people become anti Johnny Foreigner
Yes, the same gullible people who expected the EU to just roll over for us and do anything we wanted - because we are the UK.
This Czech tweet made me laugh. The writer is a main news anchor on Czech TV news, sent over to cover the shenanigans this week, so was at LHR. He writes "In today's Britain, even Christmas isn't clear"
I have to say hearing people talk around the country, I'm far from confident that Remain would win more votes than Brexit, if it was a simple choice between the two.
I'm far from convinced that this thread reflects the overall feeling of the British public. You also need to bear in mind that a number of the most frequent posters on this thread live abroad and most of the pro Brexit posters that have participated in this thread, no longer do so.
Regarding voting Brexit to reduce the staggering property prices in London and the South East, that was undoubtedly one of my reasons and it has already proved to have been correct, with Central London prices already falling significantly.
I'm surprised some posters seem concerned at having to pay £7 every 3 years and yet haven't voiced concerns, that young people in the London area have little chance of owning their own home before 35/40, unless they earn a significant sum or receive financial assistance from their family.
Your overall point about representation of this thread is valid. I never kid myself that this thread is representative of anything much beyond the people on it, however its hard not to see your point about "posters living abroad who regularly post here" as a repeat of a tiresome dig(you will be referring to me, C.Madrid, and Algarve, so that's three. THREE). Today you have CAFCsayer posting, who has told us he lives and works in Switzerland and that he is a supporter of Rees-Mogg.
More relevant is probably the poll on here before the referendum which if I recall was 54-46 Remain, so there is certainly an inbuilt bias among CL regulars who are motivated enough to post on threads about politics. I thought it was really interesting to hear from Sunbury Addick recently, not just that he had changed his mind, but why. Then again, there have not exactly been many such "changers" confessing on here; funny enough you are one, and of course your reasons were not exactly a new found love for EU membership. All of which sort of reflects the small shift to Remain in the polls. Within those polls I would recommend to trust only regular trackers which use telephone or personal interview techniques; internet polls are worse than useless. And particular attention to those pollsters whose sampling techniques have learnt the lessons of the last two national votes.
I also think your view of the housing market is a bit,well, broad-brush. As I've several times mentioned, I established some 3 years ago that taking 1993, the year I left for CZ, as the benchmark, the salary of my job has increased by 80-100%, whereas the value of my house in that period had increased by 500%. What that should tell you is that the rise in London housing is due to long term structural factors, which many of us have also mentioned. It doesn't help for example if you give non-dom status to rich and dodgy foreign oligarchs, and then are surprised when they buy up half of central London, and that this causes a ripple effect which certainly reaches Eltham or Surbiton. It then follows, that if you wanted mortgages to be affordable again for ordinary people , the fall in prices would have to be absolutely precipitous, since I was already well above average earner when I had my mortgaged house in 1993. I am kind of surprised you haven't done the maths a bit more thoroughly.
To your final point I trust you exclude me from that jibe too, since I have constantly listed the housing issue as one of the top 5 issues that seem to me to be top of most people's political agenda, and which in fact have no connection with Brexit, as they can be addressed by the national government with 100% freedom (along with NHS, elderly care, transport and infrastructure, higher education, and increasingly, police resources).
But admittedly you are at the Valley today and I am not, so in that sense you do have the moral high ground :-) I hope it will have been worth braving the foul weather and I am glad that you and others do it.
A peculiar post. I think you're getting a little carried away with your self importance. My post has no more to do with you than anyone else. If you wish to take my post as cheap jibes at you, then that's up to you, but I hadn't quoted you, referred to you or even "spoken" to you recently.
Anyway, I think it's 100% understandable that Brits living outside the UK, be it Prague, Madrid, Portugal, France, Spain and also in ROI or NI etc etc are more anxious about the situation than many UK residing Brits, because the outcome will likely effect those people immediately.
If the economy tanks and people start to lose their jobs, many will assume it won't happen to them and if it does it might be many years in the future.
Regarding doing my maths more thoroughly, having an A level in maths and economics and having been a financial adviser, I'm quite happy with my maths, which allowed me to retire comfortably at 49, having received nothing from anyone else in my life (of substance).
I reckon I'm reasonably shrewd and a decent judge of markets whether they are stock markets or property markets.
I sold the ma in laws place at the top of the market recently and cashed in my tax free pension lump sums at the top of the market back in September thank-you.
Brexit for most of my close friends who voted out is about two things:
1) immigration - where they live in London has a lot of EU country cliques, the wage they can earn in certain jobs has gone down as migrant skilled trades are prepared to accept less pay and worse conditions. Some of them still think leaving the EU will reduce non-EU migratiion.
While economic migration is an issue that needs to be discussed and infrastructure spend needs to increase, integration of migrants is important (lots of people say that we have lost any sense of British identity), any economist or user of public services will be able to see that this is wrong.
No one seems able to talk about this and this is a failure of the remain campaign and continues to be a failure in any debate on this subject.
2) we pay too much to the EU and that is run by the Germans (looking to achieve what they never have in war against us) and the French. There is no democratic authority in the EU represented by Britain.
This has been generated by the UK press and the remains of empire Tories over the last 20-30 years. We have always had a significant say in the running of the EU and have been at least as influential as the French or Germans. We have been slightly hamstring by not putting ourselves fully in the mix and also by appointing clowns as MEP.
A fully engaged UK in Europe would benefit the UK and the EU.
3) Many other EU members take the piss with their subsidies and we pay, we would be better off using the money ourselves.
This one has a bit more merit. Out in Dublin last week I was in a bar with the guy who built the EU land map for Ireland. He was saying that they used to have one flock of sheep and the EU inspectors told them what day they were going to check a farm for CUP. They moved the flock between farms.
There were payments for olive trees but they were per owner of a tree. Actually if you owned a tenth of a tree you got the same as if you owned the whole tree. Lots of people owned fractions of trees and everyone got a payout.
So there are for sure loopholes and inneffficiencies there that people exploit,
But there are also the same in our legislation, and my point would be...Deal with it, it haooens, just make sure you do better than the next guy/country.
We should explain why Europe is good for us, why being in the middle is good for us, and how we can maximise our country, with the controls that we have over our sovereignty already.
The Remain politicians have singularly failed to explain this to anyone. The media has not helped but their collective lack of ability is quite stunning.
I have to say hearing people talk around the country, I'm far from confident that Remain would win more votes than Brexit, if it was a simple choice between the two.
I'm far from convinced that this thread reflects the overall feeling of the British public. You also need to bear in mind that a number of the most frequent posters on this thread live abroad and most of the pro Brexit posters that have participated in this thread, no longer do so.
Regarding voting Brexit to reduce the staggering property prices in London and the South East, that was undoubtedly one of my reasons and it has already proved to have been correct, with Central London prices already falling significantly.
I'm surprised some posters seem concerned at having to pay £7 every 3 years and yet haven't voiced concerns, that young people in the London area have little chance of owning their own home before 35/40, unless they earn a significant sum or receive financial assistance from their family.
Your overall point about representation of this thread is valid. I never kid myself that this thread is representative of anything much beyond the people on it, however its hard not to see your point about "posters living abroad who regularly post here" as a repeat of a tiresome dig(you will be referring to me, C.Madrid, and Algarve, so that's three. THREE). Today you have CAFCsayer posting, who has told us he lives and works in Switzerland and that he is a supporter of Rees-Mogg.
More relevant is probably the poll on here before the referendum which if I recall was 54-46 Remain, so there is certainly an inbuilt bias among CL regulars who are motivated enough to post on threads about politics. I thought it was really interesting to hear from Sunbury Addick recently, not just that he had changed his mind, but why. Then again, there have not exactly been many such "changers" confessing on here; funny enough you are one, and of course your reasons were not exactly a new found love for EU membership. All of which sort of reflects the small shift to Remain in the polls. Within those polls I would recommend to trust only regular trackers which use telephone or personal interview techniques; internet polls are worse than useless. And particular attention to those pollsters whose sampling techniques have learnt the lessons of the last two national votes.
I also think your view of the housing market is a bit,well, broad-brush. As I've several times mentioned, I established some 3 years ago that taking 1993, the year I left for CZ, as the benchmark, the salary of my job has increased by 80-100%, whereas the value of my house in that period had increased by 500%. What that should tell you is that the rise in London housing is due to long term structural factors, which many of us have also mentioned. It doesn't help for example if you give non-dom status to rich and dodgy foreign oligarchs, and then are surprised when they buy up half of central London, and that this causes a ripple effect which certainly reaches Eltham or Surbiton. It then follows, that if you wanted mortgages to be affordable again for ordinary people , the fall in prices would have to be absolutely precipitous, since I was already well above average earner when I had my mortgaged house in 1993. I am kind of surprised you haven't done the maths a bit more thoroughly.
To your final point I trust you exclude me from that jibe too, since I have constantly listed the housing issue as one of the top 5 issues that seem to me to be top of most people's political agenda, and which in fact have no connection with Brexit, as they can be addressed by the national government with 100% freedom (along with NHS, elderly care, transport and infrastructure, higher education, and increasingly, police resources).
But admittedly you are at the Valley today and I am not, so in that sense you do have the moral high ground :-) I hope it will have been worth braving the foul weather and I am glad that you and others do it.
A peculiar post. I think you're getting a little carried away with your self importance. My post has no more to do with you than anyone else. If you wish to take my post as cheap jibes at you, then that's up to you, but I hadn't quoted you, referred to you or even "spoken" to you recently.
Anyway, I think it's 100% understandable that Brits living outside the UK, be it Prague, Madrid, Portugal, France, Spain and also in ROI or NI etc etc are more anxious about the situation than many UK residing Brits, because the outcome will likely effect those people immediately.
If the economy tanks and people start to lose their jobs, many will assume it won't happen to them and if it does it might be many years in the future.
Regarding doing my maths more thoroughly, having an A level in maths and economics and having been a financial adviser, I'm quite happy with my maths, which allowed me to retire comfortably at 49, having received nothing from anyone else in my life (of substance).
I reckon I'm reasonably shrewd and a decent judge of markets whether they are stock markets or property markets.
I sold the ma in laws place at the top of the market recently and cashed in my tax free pension lump sums at the top of the market back in September thank-you.
Arlene's going to be very unhappy with you, she hasn't been told yet that Northern Ireland is outside the UK...
I have to say hearing people talk around the country, I'm far from confident that Remain would win more votes than Brexit, if it was a simple choice between the two.
I'm far from convinced that this thread reflects the overall feeling of the British public. You also need to bear in mind that a number of the most frequent posters on this thread live abroad and most of the pro Brexit posters that have participated in this thread, no longer do so.
Regarding voting Brexit to reduce the staggering property prices in London and the South East, that was undoubtedly one of my reasons and it has already proved to have been correct, with Central London prices already falling significantly.
I'm surprised some posters seem concerned at having to pay £7 every 3 years and yet haven't voiced concerns, that young people in the London area have little chance of owning their own home before 35/40, unless they earn a significant sum or receive financial assistance from their family.
Your overall point about representation of this thread is valid. I never kid myself that this thread is representative of anything much beyond the people on it, however its hard not to see your point about "posters living abroad who regularly post here" as a repeat of a tiresome dig(you will be referring to me, C.Madrid, and Algarve, so that's three. THREE). Today you have CAFCsayer posting, who has told us he lives and works in Switzerland and that he is a supporter of Rees-Mogg.
More relevant is probably the poll on here before the referendum which if I recall was 54-46 Remain, so there is certainly an inbuilt bias among CL regulars who are motivated enough to post on threads about politics. I thought it was really interesting to hear from Sunbury Addick recently, not just that he had changed his mind, but why. Then again, there have not exactly been many such "changers" confessing on here; funny enough you are one, and of course your reasons were not exactly a new found love for EU membership. All of which sort of reflects the small shift to Remain in the polls. Within those polls I would recommend to trust only regular trackers which use telephone or personal interview techniques; internet polls are worse than useless. And particular attention to those pollsters whose sampling techniques have learnt the lessons of the last two national votes.
I also think your view of the housing market is a bit,well, broad-brush. As I've several times mentioned, I established some 3 years ago that taking 1993, the year I left for CZ, as the benchmark, the salary of my job has increased by 80-100%, whereas the value of my house in that period had increased by 500%. What that should tell you is that the rise in London housing is due to long term structural factors, which many of us have also mentioned. It doesn't help for example if you give non-dom status to rich and dodgy foreign oligarchs, and then are surprised when they buy up half of central London, and that this causes a ripple effect which certainly reaches Eltham or Surbiton. It then follows, that if you wanted mortgages to be affordable again for ordinary people , the fall in prices would have to be absolutely precipitous, since I was already well above average earner when I had my mortgaged house in 1993. I am kind of surprised you haven't done the maths a bit more thoroughly.
To your final point I trust you exclude me from that jibe too, since I have constantly listed the housing issue as one of the top 5 issues that seem to me to be top of most people's political agenda, and which in fact have no connection with Brexit, as they can be addressed by the national government with 100% freedom (along with NHS, elderly care, transport and infrastructure, higher education, and increasingly, police resources).
But admittedly you are at the Valley today and I am not, so in that sense you do have the moral high ground :-) I hope it will have been worth braving the foul weather and I am glad that you and others do it.
A peculiar post. I think you're getting a little carried away with your self importance. My post has no more to do with you than anyone else. If you wish to take my post as cheap jibes at you, then that's up to you, but I hadn't quoted you, referred to you or even "spoken" to you recently.
Anyway, I think it's 100% understandable that Brits living outside the UK, be it Prague, Madrid, Portugal, France, Spain and also in ROI or NI etc etc are more anxious about the situation than many UK residing Brits, because the outcome will likely effect those people immediately.
If the economy tanks and people start to lose their jobs, many will assume it won't happen to them and if it does it might be many years in the future.
Regarding doing my maths more thoroughly, having an A level in maths and economics and having been a financial adviser, I'm quite happy with my maths, which allowed me to retire comfortably at 49, having received nothing from anyone else in my life (of substance).
I reckon I'm reasonably shrewd and a decent judge of markets whether they are stock markets or property markets.
I sold the ma in laws place at the top of the market recently and cashed in my tax free pension lump sums at the top of the market back in September thank-you.
Arlene's going to be very unhappy with you, she hasn't been told yet that Northern Ireland is outside the UK...
Apologies, badly worded. I was trying to slightly separate ROI & NI from mainland europe, as obviously they are key to Brexit, but more directly impacted. I was also expressing a view that if you live in NI, you have every right to have more concern than someone who lives in London imo.
Travel insurance should always be taken out as EHIC doesn't cover all costs, such as loss, theft or damage to personal belongings and travel insurance also usually covers curtailment, cancellation and a ton of other benefits.
You're a fool to travel without it.
Correct. But the additional cost of €7 for no additional perceivable benefit is borderline theft.
Just like the train prices going up and just about all other price increases ever.
7 euros over 3 years. It’s a couple of drinks. Much more important issues to worry about in this situation.
I have to say hearing people talk around the country, I'm far from confident that Remain would win more votes than Brexit, if it was a simple choice between the two.
I'm far from convinced that this thread reflects the overall feeling of the British public. You also need to bear in mind that a number of the most frequent posters on this thread live abroad and most of the pro Brexit posters that have participated in this thread, no longer do so.
Regarding voting Brexit to reduce the staggering property prices in London and the South East, that was undoubtedly one of my reasons and it has already proved to have been correct, with Central London prices already falling significantly.
I'm surprised some posters seem concerned at having to pay £7 every 3 years and yet haven't voiced concerns, that young people in the London area have little chance of owning their own home before 35/40, unless they earn a significant sum or receive financial assistance from their family.
You don't need Brexit to get house prices down though. You need proper regulation. Essentially, you voted Brexit to tank the economy...on purpose? Pretty punk I guess
It was one of the reasons, plus your previous attitude on here pushed me over the edge and I have no doubt that sort of attitude also persuaded many people to vote Brexit for the same reason. NB I think your attitude has mellowed somewhat and I'm genuinely not wishing to start a row, because I'm beyond all that.
Of course, and I am not looking to row, but it does seem odd (and maybe even a little heartening) that a regular Tory voter would throw his vote behind fiscal chaos and economic shrinkage. There's more than one way to skin the inequality cat, of course, but maybe Brexit would force us to think creatively...aah no what am I saying
Well, the reason of course is that I have 2 sons aged 26 & 23 who have no chance of buying their own property in the SE London/North Kent area (local), unless I assist by possibly taking out a lifetime mortgage on my house.
I saved up and moved out of my parents council house age 25, to start a new life free to do as I wish. This is my personal main concern. I don't see why they should have to rent (pay someone else's mortgage) or live with their parents indefinitely.
Me and Mrs Hex live in N Kent, inside the M25 and have managed to get our 4 kids on the housing ladder so it is not impossible. We have not given any direct financial contibutions although we did give them back their housekeeping/rent money they had paid us. Two of them started with shared ownership. They do not have highly paig jobs - far from it ! The process for getting one of them a mortgage was probably more difficult than negotiating Brexit. But we did it.
As others have said, the possibility of lower house prices is no reason whatsoever to support Brexit.
Very well done to you and yours, but ideally I'd prefer to avoid shared ownership, as of course you're still paying rent & it may lead to a more difficult sale in the future. But certainly an option.
Travel insurance should always be taken out as EHIC doesn't cover all costs, such as loss, theft or damage to personal belongings and travel insurance also usually covers curtailment, cancellation and a ton of other benefits.
You're a fool to travel without it.
Correct. But the additional cost of €7 for no additional perceivable benefit is borderline theft.
Just like the train prices going up and just about all other price increases ever.
7 euros over 3 years. It’s a couple of drinks. Much more important issues to worry about in this situation.
Yes, that's right. Because train prices have *suddenly* become more expensive and we've *only just* started having to queue up and pay for train tickets and show them, on demand, to officials. Whereas, for the last few decades it's always been absolutely free to travel on trains, whenever we want and for as long as we want.
The original quote said there would be an additional cost for no perceivable benefit.
When train prices increase (every year) there is an additional cost for no perceivable benefit. My comparison was as basic as that.
The Balerics tax introduced last year is an additional cost for no perceivable benefit.
Etc, etc, etc.
If a form every 3 years is that arduous and 7 euros that financially crippling I’d suggest said people should probably not be holidaying anyway.
I don't think anyone is suggesting the cost is crippling. But it's fair to point out that the inconvenience of having to apply in advance - and pay for - permission to travel abroad for no benefit whatsoever, is something that we would be better off avoiding.
Much like the introduction of a government-endorsed, mandated requirement to buy and pay for a permit allowing you to travel from one place within the UK to any other place. It wouldn't be wanted, it would be a waste of time and money, would have no point and would be worth avoiding, if possible.
This is an interesting development, with the DUP coming under pressure from an, "unlikely alliance of nationalists, moderate unionists, grassroots groups, business organisations and the Northern Ireland Office..." to oppose their 'no deal' stance.
I have to say hearing people talk around the country, I'm far from confident that Remain would win more votes than Brexit, if it was a simple choice between the two.
I'm far from convinced that this thread reflects the overall feeling of the British public. You also need to bear in mind that a number of the most frequent posters on this thread live abroad and most of the pro Brexit posters that have participated in this thread, no longer do so.
Regarding voting Brexit to reduce the staggering property prices in London and the South East, that was undoubtedly one of my reasons and it has already proved to have been correct, with Central London prices already falling significantly.
I'm surprised some posters seem concerned at having to pay £7 every 3 years and yet haven't voiced concerns, that young people in the London area have little chance of owning their own home before 35/40, unless they earn a significant sum or receive financial assistance from their family.
Your overall point about representation of this thread is valid. I never kid myself that this thread is representative of anything much beyond the people on it, however its hard not to see your point about "posters living abroad who regularly post here" as a repeat of a tiresome dig(you will be referring to me, C.Madrid, and Algarve, so that's three. THREE). Today you have CAFCsayer posting, who has told us he lives and works in Switzerland and that he is a supporter of Rees-Mogg.
More relevant is probably the poll on here before the referendum which if I recall was 54-46 Remain, so there is certainly an inbuilt bias among CL regulars who are motivated enough to post on threads about politics. I thought it was really interesting to hear from Sunbury Addick recently, not just that he had changed his mind, but why. Then again, there have not exactly been many such "changers" confessing on here; funny enough you are one, and of course your reasons were not exactly a new found love for EU membership. All of which sort of reflects the small shift to Remain in the polls. Within those polls I would recommend to trust only regular trackers which use telephone or personal interview techniques; internet polls are worse than useless. And particular attention to those pollsters whose sampling techniques have learnt the lessons of the last two national votes.
I also think your view of the housing market is a bit,well, broad-brush. As I've several times mentioned, I established some 3 years ago that taking 1993, the year I left for CZ, as the benchmark, the salary of my job has increased by 80-100%, whereas the value of my house in that period had increased by 500%. What that should tell you is that the rise in London housing is due to long term structural factors, which many of us have also mentioned. It doesn't help for example if you give non-dom status to rich and dodgy foreign oligarchs, and then are surprised when they buy up half of central London, and that this causes a ripple effect which certainly reaches Eltham or Surbiton. It then follows, that if you wanted mortgages to be affordable again for ordinary people , the fall in prices would have to be absolutely precipitous, since I was already well above average earner when I had my mortgaged house in 1993. I am kind of surprised you haven't done the maths a bit more thoroughly.
To your final point I trust you exclude me from that jibe too, since I have constantly listed the housing issue as one of the top 5 issues that seem to me to be top of most people's political agenda, and which in fact have no connection with Brexit, as they can be addressed by the national government with 100% freedom (along with NHS, elderly care, transport and infrastructure, higher education, and increasingly, police resources).
But admittedly you are at the Valley today and I am not, so in that sense you do have the moral high ground :-) I hope it will have been worth braving the foul weather and I am glad that you and others do it.
A peculiar post. I think you're getting a little carried away with your self importance. My post has no more to do with you than anyone else. If you wish to take my post as cheap jibes at you, then that's up to you, but I hadn't quoted you, referred to you or even "spoken" to you recently.
Anyway, I think it's 100% understandable that Brits living outside the UK, be it Prague, Madrid, Portugal, France, Spain and also in ROI or NI etc etc are more anxious about the situation than many UK residing Brits, because the outcome will likely effect those people immediately.
If the economy tanks and people start to lose their jobs, many will assume it won't happen to them and if it does it might be many years in the future.
Regarding doing my maths more thoroughly, having an A level in maths and economics and having been a financial adviser, I'm quite happy with my maths, which allowed me to retire comfortably at 49, having received nothing from anyone else in my life (of substance).
I reckon I'm reasonably shrewd and a decent judge of markets whether they are stock markets or property markets.
I sold the ma in laws place at the top of the market recently and cashed in my tax free pension lump sums at the top of the market back in September thank-you.
Arlene's going to be very unhappy with you, she hasn't been told yet that Northern Ireland is outside the UK...
Apologies, badly worded. I was trying to slightly separate ROI & NI from mainland europe, as obviously they are key to Brexit, but more directly impacted. I was also expressing a view that if you live in NI, you have every right to have more concern than someone who lives in London imo.
As someone who lives in London I strongly reject the view that people in NI have every right to more concern about Brexit. Brexit, of any kind, will be a complete disaster for people living in London or anywhere else in in the UK.
A peculiar response. A disaster for someone living in London is not quite the same as the possibility of the Irish conflict recommencing and the distinct possibility of being blown up, shot or generally living in terror.
There is little point arguing for what sort of Brexit you think we need or no Brexit at all. Nobody is going to persuade anybody enough to unstick things. That is the truth that has to be accepted. One thing is for sure, we have to do something and that is why that something will happen. Because it is the only thing that can happen.
There is little point arguing for what sort of Brexit you think we need or no Brexit at all. Nobody is going to persuade anybody enough to unstick things. That is the truth that has to be accepted. One thing is for sure, we have to do something and that is why that something will happen. Because it is the only thing that can happen.
I purposely didn't want to promote a side, I am basically saying that there is only one thing we can do now. There are not the numbers for anything else. There shouldn't be a need to spell it out, just do the maths.
There is little point arguing for what sort of Brexit you think we need or no Brexit at all. Nobody is going to persuade anybody enough to unstick things. That is the truth that has to be accepted. One thing is for sure, we have to do something and that is why that something will happen. Because it is the only thing that can happen.
I haven't a clue what this means
Unfortunately neither does May. There's the problem.
Ok- what of these has any hope of getting the numbers to be agreed by the House of Commons:
ERG Hard Brexit, May's deal, Labour's Customs Union Brexit, Another election, No Brexit at all, Another vote.
Do the maths yourselves. But my maths says that as soon as you remove the election option which will happen at some point, the numbers are there for the final one. If that is the only one the numbers are there for, it is what is going to happen isn't it?
Just watching The Andrew Marr Show. Apparently (according to The Sunday Times) the cabinet are discussing plans for a 2nd referendum with Labour. I still believe we'll have a 2nd referendum and if it's worded "correctly" we will remain.
Comments
Problem is once you know what you could of got it takes a long time to decide to take a lower amount, prices down here are holding up mainly because in most places they weren't extortionate to begin with.
As others have said, the possibility of lower house prices is no reason whatsoever to support Brexit.
More relevant is probably the poll on here before the referendum which if I recall was 54-46 Remain, so there is certainly an inbuilt bias among CL regulars who are motivated enough to post on threads about politics. I thought it was really interesting to hear from Sunbury Addick recently, not just that he had changed his mind, but why. Then again, there have not exactly been many such "changers" confessing on here; funny enough you are one, and of course your reasons were not exactly a new found love for EU membership. All of which sort of reflects the small shift to Remain in the polls. Within those polls I would recommend to trust only regular trackers which use telephone or personal interview techniques; internet polls are worse than useless. And particular attention to those pollsters whose sampling techniques have learnt the lessons of the last two national votes.
I also think your view of the housing market is a bit,well, broad-brush. As I've several times mentioned, I established some 3 years ago that taking 1993, the year I left for CZ, as the benchmark, the salary of my job has increased by 80-100%, whereas the value of my house in that period had increased by 500%. What that should tell you is that the rise in London housing is due to long term structural factors, which many of us have also mentioned. It doesn't help for example if you give non-dom status to rich and dodgy foreign oligarchs, and then are surprised when they buy up half of central London, and that this causes a ripple effect which certainly reaches Eltham or Surbiton. It then follows, that if you wanted mortgages to be affordable again for ordinary people , the fall in prices would have to be absolutely precipitous, since I was already well above average earner when I had my mortgaged house in 1993. I am kind of surprised you haven't done the maths a bit more thoroughly.
To your final point I trust you exclude me from that jibe too, since I have constantly listed the housing issue as one of the top 5 issues that seem to me to be top of most people's political agenda, and which in fact have no connection with Brexit, as they can be addressed by the national government with 100% freedom (along with NHS, elderly care, transport and infrastructure, higher education, and increasingly, police resources).
But admittedly you are at the Valley today and I am not, so in that sense you do have the moral high ground :-) I hope it will have been worth braving the foul weather and I am glad that you and others do it.
My post has no more to do with you than anyone else.
If you wish to take my post as cheap jibes at you, then that's up to you, but I hadn't quoted you, referred to you or even "spoken" to you recently.
Anyway, I think it's 100% understandable that Brits living outside the UK, be it Prague, Madrid, Portugal, France, Spain and also in ROI or NI etc etc are more anxious about the situation than many UK residing Brits, because the outcome will likely effect those people immediately.
If the economy tanks and people start to lose their jobs, many will assume it won't happen to them and if it does it might be many years in the future.
Regarding doing my maths more thoroughly, having an A level in maths and economics and having been a financial adviser, I'm quite happy with my maths, which allowed me to retire comfortably at 49, having received nothing from anyone else in my life (of substance).
I reckon I'm reasonably shrewd and a decent judge of markets whether they are stock markets or property markets.
I sold the ma in laws place at the top of the market recently and cashed in my tax free pension lump sums at the top of the market back in September thank-you.
1) immigration - where they live in London has a lot of EU country cliques, the wage they can earn in certain jobs has gone down as migrant skilled trades are prepared to accept less pay and worse conditions. Some of them still think leaving the EU will reduce non-EU migratiion.
While economic migration is an issue that needs to be discussed and infrastructure spend needs to increase, integration of migrants is important (lots of people say that we have lost any sense of British identity), any economist or user of public services will be able to see that this is wrong.
No one seems able to talk about this and this is a failure of the remain campaign and continues to be a failure in any debate on this subject.
2) we pay too much to the EU and that is run by the Germans (looking to achieve what they never have in war against us) and the French. There is no democratic authority in the EU represented by Britain.
This has been generated by the UK press and the remains of empire Tories over the last 20-30 years. We have always had a significant say in the running of the EU and have been at least as influential as the French or Germans. We have been slightly hamstring by not putting ourselves fully in the mix and also by appointing clowns as MEP.
A fully engaged UK in Europe would benefit the UK and the EU.
3) Many other EU members take the piss with their subsidies and we pay, we would be better off using the money ourselves.
This one has a bit more merit. Out in Dublin last week I was in a bar with the guy who built the EU land map for Ireland. He was saying that they used to have one flock of sheep and the EU inspectors told them what day they were going to check a farm for CUP. They moved the flock between farms.
There were payments for olive trees but they were per owner of a tree. Actually if you owned a tenth of a tree you got the same as if you owned the whole tree. Lots of people owned fractions of trees and everyone got a payout.
So there are for sure loopholes and inneffficiencies there that people exploit,
But there are also the same in our legislation, and my point would be...Deal with it, it haooens, just make sure you do better than the next guy/country.
We should explain why Europe is good for us, why being in the middle is good for us, and how we can maximise our country, with the controls that we have over our sovereignty already.
The Remain politicians have singularly failed to explain this to anyone. The media has not helped but their collective lack of ability is quite stunning.
I was trying to slightly separate ROI & NI from mainland europe, as obviously they are key to Brexit, but more directly impacted.
I was also expressing a view that if you live in NI, you have every right to have more concern than someone who lives in London imo.
7 euros over 3 years. It’s a couple of drinks. Much more important issues to worry about in this situation.
It's a perfectly-devised analogy.
When train prices increase (every year) there is an additional cost for no perceivable benefit. My comparison was as basic as that.
The Balerics tax introduced last year is an additional cost for no perceivable benefit.
Etc, etc, etc.
If a form every 3 years is that arduous and 7 euros that financially crippling I’d suggest said people should probably not be holidaying anyway.
Much like the introduction of a government-endorsed, mandated requirement to buy and pay for a permit allowing you to travel from one place within the UK to any other place. It wouldn't be wanted, it would be a waste of time and money, would have no point and would be worth avoiding, if possible.
https://theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/15/dup-brexit-pressure-grows-countdown-to-disaster
Particularly apt is the comparison with the Spanners!
There's the problem.
ERG Hard Brexit, May's deal, Labour's Customs Union Brexit, Another election, No Brexit at all, Another vote.
Do the maths yourselves. But my maths says that as soon as you remove the election option which will happen at some point, the numbers are there for the final one. If that is the only one the numbers are there for, it is what is going to happen isn't it?
After a quick count up I reckon I've visited 14 of them plus Norway and Switzerland.
I still believe we'll have a 2nd referendum and if it's worded "correctly" we will remain.