Haven't counted my numbers but my Brexit voting mate has left these shores once in 50 plus years and that was a daytrip to Calais on a coach. Giving a 6 month period, I have been to Cuba in August, Italy in September, am going to France and Belgium next week, then Italy again in January (Venice), then Austria in February. It might be why I see myself as a European, People like my mate should try it, it's great
Apropos of the visa thing coming in, and for no other reason than I was bored, has anyone on here visited the entire 27 other countries in the EU?
After a quick count up I reckon I've visited 14 of them plus Norway and Switzerland.
I've been to 16 (passing through slovakia doesn't count) plus Monaco and Vatican depending where they fit into it all! So plenty more to go. I managed to see loads inter railing in my teens. That was an amazing piss up! It was also before the euro, so we ended up with quite the collection of small coins
Ok- what of these has any hope of getting the numbers to be agreed by the House of Commons:
ERG Hard Brexit, May's deal, Labour's Customs Union Brexit, Another election, No Brexit at all, Another vote.
Do the maths yourselves. But my maths says that as soon as you remove the election option which will happen at some point, the numbers are there for the final one. If that is the only one the numbers are there for, it is what is going to happen isn't it?
It's worth reviewing this BBC article on the necessary arrangements timetable and parliamentary agreement required to hold another referendum - including getting a parliamentary majority for the question(s) that would be put:
"The People's Vote campaign, which wants a referendum on the final Brexit deal, says a choice between Theresa May's deal and remaining in the EU is their preferred choice but it doesn't rule out the possibility of voters having three options to choose from.
Some argue that if there was to be another vote, 'Remain' should not appear on the ballot paper and it should be a straight choice between Theresa May's Brexit deal and leaving the EU with no deal.
There are other options as well. Justine Greening, a former Conservative cabinet minister who supports another referendum, has previously called for three choices when people come to vote:
accept a negotiated Brexit deal stay in the EU leave with no deal
If there were several options, MPs would also need to decide what voting system to use - ie would voters make one choice or vote in order of preference?
The Electoral Commission would also need to test the proposed question and ensure it was presented "clearly, simply and neutrally"."
So while 'the numbers' may eventually be there for 'a' referendum, I'm not sure the parliamentary 'maths' is there for an agreed set of question(s) and a possible voting system.
Plus for reasons I've posted before I don't think the outcome of a another referendum is as certain as many supporting a 'Peoples' Vote' seem to believe.
I shudder at the thought of another referendum/peoples vote. Get it may be the least worst of all future options. Ugh. To deploy the message to brexiters that taking back control means letting Parliament decide is simply too complex, and too easily shouted down and swept aside. There is an irony in brexiters leaving the politicians to try to solve the insoluble (Irish Border) yet many of those would go doolally if those same politicians came to the conclusion the UK should simply remain. Another national vote would take this country to a new level of deeper division, embolden the right, and in my view increase racism and racial violence. Yet brexiters are supposed to know what they were voting for, one of the aspects of all of this that I find particularly irksome. If they knew, they ought to supply the solutions, all of them, or maybe there are some out there who are prepared to admit (to themselves in private if you like) they didn't know after all.
I shudder at the thought of another referendum/peoples vote. Get it may be the least worst of all future options. Ugh. To deploy the message to brexiters that taking back control means letting Parliament decide is simply too complex, and too easily shouted down and swept aside. There is an irony in brexiters leaving the politicians to try to solve the insoluble (Irish Border) yet many of those would go doolally if those same politicians came to the conclusion the UK should simply remain. Another national vote would take this country to a new level of deeper division, embolden the right, and in my view increase racism and racial violence. Yet brexiters are supposed to know what they were voting for, one of the aspects of all of this that I find particularly irksome. If they knew, they ought to supply the solutions, all of them, or maybe there are some out there who are prepared to admit (to themselves in private if you like) they didn't know after all.
It is the least worse option and I share @MuttleyCAFC opinion that it is also the most 'real thing' likely thing to happen next. There will be movements toward an election, a no deal, a vote on May's deal, remain but they will all fail as they don't have the numbers.
Leavers will fight tooth and nail against it so it has to follow a process to reach that conclusion, it will be messy.
That is of course what I think will logically happen but what has actually been logical so far in this process!
"I'm far from convinced that this thread reflects the overall feeling of the British public. You also need to bear in mind that a number of the most frequent posters on this thread live abroad and most of the pro Brexit posters that have participated in this thread, no longer do so."
the clear implication of that is that the thread is not representative, because people who live abroad are biasing the overall thrust of it. (i.e.they are pro Remain) I have pointed out that only three can be easily identified as fitting that template, one of them's me, so at 33% of the total of course I'm going to be pissed off. You have also ignored the fact - I repeat, fact - that other Lifers on this thread that live abroad can be identified as Brexiteers. When you speak about France, who is CL's most high -profile French resident?
You wrote
"I'm surprised some posters seem concerned at having to pay £7 every 3 years and yet haven't voiced concerns, that young people in the London area have little chance of owning their own home before 35/40, unless they earn a significant sum or receive financial assistance from their family."
That too is a snarky comment because you imply 'some posters" (again including me) have no sense of proportion, that they completely ignore the big issues of the day. It's unjustified in itself and I wanted to remind you and this thread that I have several times listed what I think are the big political issues facing the UK no one has seriously taken issue with them, and nobody has been able to point out how Brexiting is the solution to them. Should I and others list them each time we discuss another new Brexit related development?
The appalling cost of housing and the skew in that cost across the UK is one of those issues on my list. Congratulations on selling your mum-in-law's house at the top of the market. We did much the same with my Mum's house. So what? Does that as you seem to imply, make us clever? Personally I'd much rather my Mum was still around this Christmas, even if maybe £50k has come off the value of the house since she passed away 16 months ago. My point about your maths is that I would expect you to be able to recognise the monstrous gap between the rise in house prices in London/SE and the rise in earnings over 20-25 years. As a result, for my 26 year old nephew to have the housing choices I had when I was at his age, then based on 1996 as a benchmark year in my personal example, Brexit would need to induce a price fall of 77%. I think it is reckless for people who ought to know better - and indeed I count you as one of them due to your personal success playing the markets - to advocate Brexit in the hope of such an effect.
Can only see validity for 3 questions: - May’s deal - no deal - remain
Would be difficult to add Canada+ or Norway+ when they haven’t yet been properly negotiated with the EU, they’re only hypothetical options.
Having said that a second referendum would be massively divisive so a negotiated Norway type deal seems the most likely outcome (but far from a probable outcome if you see what I mean).
Can only see validity for 3 questions: - May’s deal - no deal - remain
Would be difficult to add Canada+ or Norway+ when they haven’t yet been properly negotiated with the EU, they’re only hypothetical options.
Having said that a second referendum would be massively divisive so a negotiated Norway type deal seems the most likely outcome (but far from a probable outcome if you see what I mean).
I agree. Can't the members of EFTA (Norway, Liechtenstein, Malta and Rockall) poo poo our application to join them anyway?
Can only see validity for 3 questions: - May’s deal - no deal - remain
Would be difficult to add Canada+ or Norway+ when they haven’t yet been properly negotiated with the EU, they’re only hypothetical options.
Having said that a second referendum would be massively divisive so a negotiated Norway type deal seems the most likely outcome (but far from a probable outcome if you see what I mean).
I don't disagree, but like you said, they have to agree it with the EU after they have agreed it with themselves. If the postpones article 50 it could buy them some time, but I can't see any other deals getting through. This has been an almighty cock up by this government.
I don't understand these economic forcasters experts. If could predict the future of the economy accuratly, I'd be on a massive yacht with several super models and a bag of toot, not getting up early on a Sunday to discuss brexit on the telly.
I don't understand these economic forcasters experts. If could predict the future of the economy accuratly, I'd be on a massive yacht with several super models and a bag of toot, not getting up early on a Sunday to discuss brexit on the telly.
You have to accept that forecasts are forecasts and can turn out wrong. But they are informed and are the sensible thing to do. I forecast based on what I have seen that Charlton will get more points from now on than Wimbledon. I could be wrong but I wouldn't want to bet my life on it!
When the WA fails to pass the HoC vote on 14th January, May only has one place to go in order to get HER deal through and that is to hold a referendum with only HER deal and no deal on the ballot paper.
Only two options? So only those who voted to leave, will be allowed to vote? How many spoilt papers will there be?
Luckily May can’t just call a referendum then, it would need the relevant legislation approved by Parliament and there’s no chance of the house approving a referendum with only those options on the ballot paper.
Then a vote of no confidence would be called and the government would fall
That would require a number of Tories to vote to put their own jobs on the line in a GE, which won’t happen
Unless the 25 remain Tories work with Labour and the SNP to push through a different approach, then the UK is leaving the EU March 29th 2019. Today the default outcome is a No Deal. May will seek to leverage that to deliver her WA Bill so the quicker that's defeated, the quicker we can move on to the next decision.
A referendum or revocation of Article 50 is the alternative to No Deal. And there are only two routes to those possibilities. Unlikely to be delivered by May but she might reach across to the opposition? And if she won't then the destiny of our membership of the EU is held by those 25 remain Tories. Nobody else. It's perfectly reasonable to believe that these MPs will not join a no confidence in May. However it might be best to take a view after the WA is defeated as expected in January. The UK then enters a very big game of chicken with the clock ticking fairly loudly.
Those 25 are already talking to the likes of Umunna on a regular basis. And Justine Greening has just written a piece in the FT saying she doesn't want Corbyn in power but can see the only solution as a referendum. As @MuttleyCAFC posted, something has to give, something will give - probably February but perhaps as late as mid March.
On a separate note, the views on this forum are probably a fair representation of SE London perspective. Certainly not northern leave voters. And we should enjoy the perspective of those outside of Great Britain, whether that's Madrid, Prague, N.Ireland (UK not GB).
Can only see validity for 3 questions: - May’s deal - no deal - remain
Would be difficult to add Canada+ or Norway+ when they haven’t yet been properly negotiated with the EU, they’re only hypothetical options.
Having said that a second referendum would be massively divisive so a negotiated Norway type deal seems the most likely outcome (but far from a probable outcome if you see what I mean).
May has completely wasted the opportunity to develop various leave options. A mature approach would have been to involve all parties and chase different possibilities. Then give a final vote to Parliament or back to the people.
Instead she's ended up with the WA which is universally unpopular with voters and MPs. Once defeated, we then have to watch a massive scramble for an alternative to No Deal.
For a variety of reasons Norway was never going to actually be delivered, not least because the Norwegians don't want our mess on their doorstep. But if the UK favours Norway then it's only a small step to move to Remain!
That's what I have posted about Labour. First they are into a permanent CU, and then enjoying the benefits of the SM. And now a referendum. The best way to enjoy the CU and SM is to staff in the EU. And only the people can legitimise that decision.
It's a paradox but a Brexit for jobs and the economy is no Brexit! Unfortunately the damage is done and the die idea cast - it looks unlikely that the required gymnastics will be performed in time. As a friend said the other week, the UK needs to feel the pain before it properly wakes up!
I don't understand these economic forcasters experts. If could predict the future of the economy accuratly, I'd be on a massive yacht with several super models and a bag of toot, not getting up early on a Sunday to discuss brexit on the telly.
You have to accept that forecasts are forecasts and can turn out wrong. But they are informed and are the sensible thing to do. I forecast based on what I have seen that Charlton will get more points from now on than Wimbledon. I could be wrong but I wouldn't want to bet my life on it!
Predicting we will come above Wimbledon is hardly an expert prediction. Experts should have expertise, having to get up earlyon a Sunday is hardly the sign of an expert.
To be fair, predicting we will be financially better off staying in the EU is not an expert prediction either. But experts have put their minds to it at the behest of the government.
“unite and bring us together”? Bollocks to that, I won’t want to unite nor will I feel very together with those that have plunged my country into the mire and that have made us look like idiots on the world stage. Especially if I end up living on beans on toast for the foreseeable.
I see Hunt has again said we will "flourish" with no deal. I don't understand how anyone in a position of influence can say that. There's less than three months to sort customs for every single item of anything we import from anywhere. We will have shortages of all sorts of necessities, plus everything will jump by i'd guess 15%+ in price. And we need to agree these pie in the sky super deals with USA, Canada, Japan etc. It's not going to happen. The EU have (rightly) run rings around us and so will any country we aim to rely upon.
FWIW my company will be planning for no deal from Jan 1st.
Saw Ken Clarke being sensible (as usual) on some programme (probably channel 4 news) in the week. He does not however think that a second referendum will work as it would be too divisive. What he wants is for Parliament to take control and make a decision which I would also support but I can't see that being any less divisive.
I see Hunt has again said we will "flourish" with no deal. I don't understand how anyone in a position of influence can say that. There's less than three months to sort customs for every single item of anything we import from anywhere. We will have shortages of all sorts of necessities, plus everything will jump by i'd guess 15%+ in price. And we need to agree these pie in the sky super deals with USA, Canada, Japan etc. It's not going to happen. The EU have (rightly) run rings around us and so will any country we aim to rely upon.
FWIW my company will be planning for no deal from Jan 1st.
Just checking my fridge and freezer here in Prague. The following fresh/bought fresh products from British farmers/producers are present:
Milk, cheese, butter, bacon, lamb chops, potatoes , garden peas, brussel sprouts, salad dressing, crumpets, wholemeal loaf. All thanks to M&S trucking their fresh food out to their stores here, the only country in CEE where the results were so good that they kept their presence despite financial pressure across the group to close stores.
You know what M&S are like with their sell by dates. The slightest suggestion of delay at the border and they will cancel the whole thing. I'll be effing livid, but for the farmers concerned it will be part of the financial hit which a no-deal Brexit will hit them with. Some of them from the meat and livestock side were on the World at One just now. They were rewarded with Marcus Fysk(? MP for Yeovil, ERG ultra) telling them that it's all Project Fear. Still. The same old shit in the face of a mounting tide of facts.
Apropos of the visa thing coming in, and for no other reason than I was bored, has anyone on here visited the entire 27 other countries in the EU?
After a quick count up I reckon I've visited 14 of them plus Norway and Switzerland.
Been to 18 of the non UK 27, plus Iceland, Bosnia and Russia on the fringe of the EU. Also Monaco - does that count?
I’ve been to 18 too, missing some of the smaller ones.
I am only missing Estonia (really want to go) and Malta (really want us to kick them out, gangster run, money-laundering, journalist-murdering useless piece of rock)
Travel insurance should always be taken out as EHIC doesn't cover all costs, such as loss, theft or damage to personal belongings and travel insurance also usually covers curtailment, cancellation and a ton of other benefits.
You're a fool to travel without it.
Correct. But the additional cost of €7 for no additional perceivable benefit is borderline theft.
You mentioned the magic word "border" which Brexiteers cannot deal with. No deal means no Irish border, which means EU members of WTO will veto any trade deal we try to make until Boris invents X-ray CCTV cameras that csn identify any goods crossing the border without a trusted trader stamp.
Right, so let’s just revoke Article 50 now that we know we can.
Comments
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46426380
"The People's Vote campaign, which wants a referendum on the final Brexit deal, says a choice between Theresa May's deal and remaining in the EU is their preferred choice but it doesn't rule out the possibility of voters having three options to choose from.
Some argue that if there was to be another vote, 'Remain' should not appear on the ballot paper and it should be a straight choice between Theresa May's Brexit deal and leaving the EU with no deal.
There are other options as well. Justine Greening, a former Conservative cabinet minister who supports another referendum, has previously called for three choices when people come to vote:
accept a negotiated Brexit deal
stay in the EU
leave with no deal
If there were several options, MPs would also need to decide what voting system to use - ie would voters make one choice or vote in order of preference?
The Electoral Commission would also need to test the proposed question and ensure it was presented "clearly, simply and neutrally"."
So while 'the numbers' may eventually be there for 'a' referendum, I'm not sure the parliamentary 'maths' is there for an agreed set of question(s) and a possible voting system.
Plus for reasons I've posted before I don't think the outcome of a another referendum is as certain as many supporting a 'Peoples' Vote' seem to believe.
:-)
Ugh.
To deploy the message to brexiters that taking back control means letting Parliament decide is simply too complex, and too easily shouted down and swept aside.
There is an irony in brexiters leaving the politicians to try to solve the insoluble (Irish Border) yet many of those would go doolally if those same politicians came to the conclusion the UK should simply remain.
Another national vote would take this country to a new level of deeper division, embolden the right, and in my view increase racism and racial violence.
Yet brexiters are supposed to know what they were voting for, one of the aspects of all of this that I find particularly irksome. If they knew, they ought to supply the solutions, all of them, or maybe there are some out there who are prepared to admit (to themselves in private if you like) they didn't know after all.
Leavers will fight tooth and nail against it so it has to follow a process to reach that conclusion, it will be messy.
That is of course what I think will logically happen but what has actually been logical so far in this process!
You wrote:
"I'm far from convinced that this thread reflects the overall feeling of the British public.
You also need to bear in mind that a number of the most frequent posters on this thread live abroad and most of the pro Brexit posters that have participated in this thread, no longer do so."
the clear implication of that is that the thread is not representative, because people who live abroad are biasing the overall thrust of it. (i.e.they are pro Remain) I have pointed out that only three can be easily identified as fitting that template, one of them's me, so at 33% of the total of course I'm going to be pissed off. You have also ignored the fact - I repeat, fact - that other Lifers on this thread that live abroad can be identified as Brexiteers. When you speak about France, who is CL's most high -profile French resident?
You wrote
"I'm surprised some posters seem concerned at having to pay £7 every 3 years and yet haven't voiced concerns, that young people in the London area have little chance of owning their own home before 35/40, unless they earn a significant sum or receive financial assistance from their family."
That too is a snarky comment because you imply 'some posters" (again including me) have no sense of proportion, that they completely ignore the big issues of the day. It's unjustified in itself and I wanted to remind you and this thread that I have several times listed what I think are the big political issues facing the UK no one has seriously taken issue with them, and nobody has been able to point out how Brexiting is the solution to them. Should I and others list them each time we discuss another new Brexit related development?
The appalling cost of housing and the skew in that cost across the UK is one of those issues on my list. Congratulations on selling your mum-in-law's house at the top of the market. We did much the same with my Mum's house. So what? Does that as you seem to imply, make us clever? Personally I'd much rather my Mum was still around this Christmas, even if maybe £50k has come off the value of the house since she passed away 16 months ago. My point about your maths is that I would expect you to be able to recognise the monstrous gap between the rise in house prices in London/SE and the rise in earnings over 20-25 years. As a result, for my 26 year old nephew to have the housing choices I had when I was at his age, then based on 1996 as a benchmark year in my personal example, Brexit would need to induce a price fall of 77%. I think it is reckless for people who ought to know better - and indeed I count you as one of them due to your personal success playing the markets - to advocate Brexit in the hope of such an effect.
- May’s deal
- no deal
- remain
Would be difficult to add Canada+ or Norway+ when they haven’t yet been properly negotiated with the EU, they’re only hypothetical options.
Having said that a second referendum would be massively divisive so a negotiated Norway type deal seems the most likely outcome (but far from a probable outcome if you see what I mean).
A referendum or revocation of Article 50 is the alternative to No Deal. And there are only two routes to those possibilities. Unlikely to be delivered by May but she might reach across to the opposition? And if she won't then the destiny of our membership of the EU is held by those 25 remain Tories. Nobody else. It's perfectly reasonable to believe that these MPs will not join a no confidence in May. However it might be best to take a view after the WA is defeated as expected in January. The UK then enters a very big game of chicken with the clock ticking fairly loudly.
Those 25 are already talking to the likes of Umunna on a regular basis. And Justine Greening has just written a piece in the FT saying she doesn't want Corbyn in power but can see the only solution as a referendum. As @MuttleyCAFC posted, something has to give, something will give - probably February but perhaps as late as mid March.
On a separate note, the views on this forum are probably a fair representation of SE London perspective. Certainly not northern leave voters. And we should enjoy the perspective of those outside of Great Britain, whether that's Madrid, Prague, N.Ireland (UK not GB).
That's OK then
Instead she's ended up with the WA which is universally unpopular with voters and MPs. Once defeated, we then have to watch a massive scramble for an alternative to No Deal.
For a variety of reasons Norway was never going to actually be delivered, not least because the Norwegians don't want our mess on their doorstep. But if the UK favours Norway then it's only a small step to move to Remain!
That's what I have posted about Labour. First they are into a permanent CU, and then enjoying the benefits of the SM. And now a referendum. The best way to enjoy the CU and SM is to staff in the EU. And only the people can legitimise that decision.
It's a paradox but a Brexit for jobs and the economy is no Brexit! Unfortunately the damage is done and the die idea cast - it looks unlikely that the required gymnastics will be performed in time. As a friend said the other week, the UK needs to feel the pain before it properly wakes up!
Experts should have expertise, having to get up earlyon a Sunday is hardly the sign of an expert.
“unite and bring us together”? Bollocks to that, I won’t want to unite nor will I feel very together with those that have plunged my country into the mire and that have made us look like idiots on the world stage. Especially if I end up living on beans on toast for the foreseeable.
FWIW my company will be planning for no deal from Jan 1st.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/dec/16/failed-by-both-major-parties-betrayed-britain-lurches-towards-the-abyss
Milk, cheese, butter, bacon, lamb chops, potatoes , garden peas, brussel sprouts, salad dressing, crumpets, wholemeal loaf. All thanks to M&S trucking their fresh food out to their stores here, the only country in CEE where the results were so good that they kept their presence despite financial pressure across the group to close stores.
You know what M&S are like with their sell by dates. The slightest suggestion of delay at the border and they will cancel the whole thing. I'll be effing livid, but for the farmers concerned it will be part of the financial hit which a no-deal Brexit will hit them with. Some of them from the meat and livestock side were on the World at One just now. They were rewarded with Marcus Fysk(? MP for Yeovil, ERG ultra) telling them that it's all Project Fear. Still. The same old shit in the face of a mounting tide of facts.