Heard take today from a teacher of sixth formers (so don't shoot the messenger) that they all want to vote leave, and the harder the better if there's a second referendum. Their single reason is that they want the economy to tank so they may be able to afford a house. I appreciate this is small sample size, anecdotal evidence and therefore next to useless, however a few thoughts:
A) it's awful if the dream of owning a house is predicated on a financial crash, and all that entails.
I don't think they thought it through
C) I don't think the results of any second referendum are in the bag.
How do they expect to get a mortgage in a financial crash?
One of the problems with the second referendum is that it is proposed by remainers. The reality is that it is the only clear way for the country to move out of the stalemate it is currently in. And it provides the opportunity for Leavers to re-affirm their original vote and send the message to politicians to get on with it. Everybody has to face the facts here- we are stuck - there is no point arguing for what sort of Brexit we want forever - we have to break up the blockage!
And if the leave voters win again, they should then have to reaffirm it every year until they lose.
What happens by the way, if the second referendum result is 52-48 in favour of remain? We remain or have another?
What's wrong with having a referendum every year? Surely that really is true democracy.
One of the problems with the second referendum is that it is proposed by remainers. The reality is that it is the only clear way for the country to move out of the stalemate it is currently in. And it provides the opportunity for Leavers to re-affirm their original vote and send the message to politicians to get on with it. Everybody has to face the facts here- we are stuck - there is no point arguing for what sort of Brexit we want forever - we have to break up the blockage!
And if the leave voters win again, they should then have to reaffirm it every year until they lose.
What happens by the way, if the second referendum result is 52-48 in favour of remain? We remain or have another?
Well for a start it has to be made clear that this vote is binding and not advisory. The question has to offer the deal on the table. No deal or remain on existing terms. Paint the picture any way you want those options are all we have. Whatever the electorate decide is what has to be delivered.
It’s clear to me that there can be no consensus within parliament so the only option is to throw it back to the people.
If those figures are accurate it would suit me personally. What is also clear from those numbers is that there is clear evidence that much of the leave vote has recognised that they were lied to.
If those figures are accurate it would suit me personally. What is also clear from those numbers is that there is clear evidence that much of the leave vote has recognised that they were lied to.
It also illustrates that we are dashing, headlong to the reach the option that is supported by 28% of the population.
I thought Muttley got it right (again) earlier. A referendum that covers the various Brexits, plus remain. What is the problem with trying to at least do the thing properly?
If those figures are accurate it would suit me personally. What is also clear from those numbers is that there is clear evidence that much of the leave vote has recognised that they were lied to.
It also illustrates that we are dashing, headlong to the reach the option that is supported by 28% of the population.
To have a referendum that offers those three logical choices does however throw up the problem that it will inevitably be argued that by definition it splits the leave vote. Having said that I’m not sure how anything other than those choices can be offered.
If those figures are accurate it would suit me personally. What is also clear from those numbers is that there is clear evidence that much of the leave vote has recognised that they were lied to.
It also illustrates that we are dashing, headlong to the reach the option that is supported by 28% of the population.
To have a referendum that offers those three logical choices does however throw up the problem that it will inevitably be argued that by definition it splits the leave vote. Having said that I’m not sure how anything other than those choices can be offered.
Just do an AV version.
Three choices. Mark your first choice "1" and your second choice "2".
The option that comes third is eliminated and second preferences redistributed. IIt's not unprecedented. The same system is used for the London Mayoral elections and (ironically) for the European Parliamentary elections.
If those figures are accurate it would suit me personally. What is also clear from those numbers is that there is clear evidence that much of the leave vote has recognised that they were lied to.
It also illustrates that we are dashing, headlong to the reach the option that is supported by 28% of the population.
To have a referendum that offers those three logical choices does however throw up the problem that it will inevitably be argued that by definition it splits the leave vote. Having said that I’m not sure how anything other than those choices can be offered.
The problem of a split leave vote (and remember, if you have two votes, you can vote for two versions of leave) is smaller than the problems of a split country, a split Parliament and a splitting economy.
A motley gang of about 12 ruddy faced men in their fifties dressed in hi-vis jackets briefly caused a commotion chanting 'Brexit now' as well as demanding a new mayor of London (apparently they disagree with the result of the last vote and want to ignore that result of a 57-43 vote). They were swiftly moved on by police without causing much of a disturbance.
Watch out France, the jambons jaunes are coming for you.
What’s happened now gives a lot more creedance to the conspiracy that May and her camp engineered the vote of no confidence. Had that gone ahead now rather than a few days ago I’m sure she would have been much closer to disaster.
Only way forward now is to give this back to the people.
Labours stance is just as much a no goer. There will be no further negotiations.
What’s happened now gives a lot more creedance to the conspiracy that May and her camp engineered the vote of no confidence. Had that gone ahead now rather than a few days ago I’m sure she would have been much closer to disaster.
Only way forward now is to give this back to the people.
Labours stance is just as much a no goer. There will be no further negotiations.
The stark choice now is no deal or referendum.
Agreed - and the two options that should be placed on any second referendum are 'Leave No Deal' or 'Remain' as any other 'deal' would always be worse than remaining.
What’s happened now gives a lot more creedance to the conspiracy that May and her camp engineered the vote of no confidence. Had that gone ahead now rather than a few days ago I’m sure she would have been much closer to disaster.
Only way forward now is to give this back to the people.
Labours stance is just as much a no goer. There will be no further negotiations.
The stark choice now is no deal or referendum.
Agreed - and the two options that should be placed on any second referendum are 'Leave No Deal' or 'Remain' as any other 'deal' would always be worse than remaining.
The problem with not having Mays deal on the ballot paper is that not all of the available options are available to vote for. I think and it’s just a gut feeling that should there be a “people’s vote” it is by far and away the best chance of there actually being a Brexit of sorts. Given that only loonies are suggesting that a no deal is acceptable I don’t see the British public in enough numbers voting for no deal.
Bear in mind that is only to travel. Work, study, and other non-tourist visas will generally be down to individual countries unless some agreement is made.
So May has returned to Brussels and got nothing at all apart from perhaps some sympathy. What the fuck next ?
Tusk and Juncker are on a level of dishonesty to match our very own political lying elite. I would very much doubt this is done yet.
In what way have Tusk and Juncker been acting dishonestly?
They have played it brilliantly and shown how incompetent our political leaders are. If opinion polls are to be believed we are closer to remaining than we were two years ago. We are a laughing stock and our economy is in an even bigger mess than it was before Brexit. They have ensured the European project for the next generation as no one is going to try to leave after this shambles.
So May has returned to Brussels and got nothing at all apart from perhaps some sympathy. What the fuck next ?
Tusk and Juncker are on a level of dishonesty to match our very own political lying elite. I would very much doubt this is done yet.
In what way have Tusk and Juncker been acting dishonestly?
They have played it brilliantly and shown how incompetent our political leaders are. If opinion polls are to be believed we are closer to remaining than we were two years ago. We are a laughing stock and our economy is in even bigger mess than it was before Brexit. They have ensured the European project for the next generation as no one is going to try to leave after this shambles.
Not sure our political leaders have needed any help in that.
So May has returned to Brussels and got nothing at all apart from perhaps some sympathy. What the fuck next ?
Tusk and Juncker are on a level of dishonesty to match our very own political lying elite. I would very much doubt this is done yet.
In what way have Tusk and Juncker been acting dishonestly?
Well for a start they’ve said the deal is non negotiable. I believe that it is.
Historically Juncker in particular has openly admitted in the past that himself and his EU cronies lie when addressing European citizens when they dare to ask what’s going on in the European corridors of secrecy.
Bear in mind that is only to travel. Work, study, and other non-tourist visas will generally be down to individual countries unless some agreement is made.
Also bear in mind that it's only that cost every three years.
These things make the headlines but in the grand scheme of things are completely inconsequential to an individual.
Bear in mind that is only to travel. Work, study, and other non-tourist visas will generally be down to individual countries unless some agreement is made.
Also bear in mind that it's only that cost every three years.
These things make the headlines but in the grand scheme of things are completely inconsequential to an individual.
Think how many millions of Brits travel from Britain to the EU within a 3 year period. Nice little money spinner for the EU.
For a family of 5 that's an extra 35 quid on top of their holiday. Might not seem a lot to you but it's still a total waste of money with zero tangible benefits of leaving the EU.
So May has returned to Brussels and got nothing at all apart from perhaps some sympathy. What the fuck next ?
May has to bring her WA to Parliament around mid-January but it's clear that she now has the support of just two hundred MPs or less than 1/3 of the House. Those against May plus the DUP who want a more hardline Brexit make another 125 - just under 20%. Estimates are starting to appear about the rest with 150 supporting the Labour permanent CU policy and 125 supporting a People's Vote option.
We probably need to see the WA Bill defeated heavily and another few weeks to tick by before those Tory remainers consider a move to stop No Deal or WA going through end March. These 25 have two options - cross the floor or try putting May in an armlock! It will take an extreme level of exasperation before they throw her under the bus. The level of WA defeat might lead May to change tack? If not people have to remove her to secure a different outcome. It looks like February before this will be resolved, perhaps even right up to the wire in March.
NB At some point Labour will have to unwrap their ambiguity (!) which might be problematic. Right now they can continue with their mix of fantasy, Norway and Remain because the alternatives are far worse and WA or No Deal is where we are headed until something changes. I hope everybody is clear on that: we are heading for No Deal if nothing happens or the WA with a permanent backstop if that is passed.
This is the way May designed the two year process so as to force an outcome. And she will stay as PM as long as she can.
Perhaps we should pay attention to Soubry, Umunna and other centrists who ultimately control the timing of a swing. The question is whether all those to the left of the WA and Hard Brexit can come together and land on a single plan. The obvious answer is to unite behind a people's vote option with tighter definition of the options and tighter control of the rules. But that requires that either May does a U-Turn or she is taken out.
So May has returned to Brussels and got nothing at all apart from perhaps some sympathy. What the fuck next ?
Tusk and Juncker are on a level of dishonesty to match our very own political lying elite. I would very much doubt this is done yet.
In what way have Tusk and Juncker been acting dishonestly?
Well for a start they’ve said the deal is non negotiable. I believe that it is.
Historically Juncker in particular has openly admitted in the past that himself and his EU cronies lie when addressing European citizens when they dare to ask what’s going on on in the European corridors of secrecy.
1) so how is that being dishonest? They have clear instructions from the other 27 EU leaders, to whom they are accountable, not to renegotiate the deal at this time. You might believe it is negotiable, but have you talked to all 27 EU leaders to find out if it is? Probably not.
2) yes there is that comment he made about how, as part of his job where he is privy to quite a lot of confidential and sensitive data, it is necessary not to be transparent and honest at times to prevent panic or causing market movements. The same applies for any person in the top jobs of politics and business. It is completely unrealistic for anyone in an important role to put total transparency ahead of their fiduciary duty and theirr ability to discharge their responsibilities effectively.
Comments
It’s clear to me that there can be no consensus within parliament so the only option is to throw it back to the people.
If those figures are accurate it would suit me personally. What is also clear from those numbers is that there is clear evidence that much of the leave vote has recognised that they were lied to.
Three choices. Mark your first choice "1" and your second choice "2".
The option that comes third is eliminated and second preferences redistributed. IIt's not unprecedented. The same system is used for the London Mayoral elections and (ironically) for the European Parliamentary elections.
Watch out France, the jambons jaunes are coming for you.
Only way forward now is to give this back to the people.
Labours stance is just as much a no goer. There will be no further negotiations.
The stark choice now is no deal or referendum.
I would very much doubt this is done yet.
Historically Juncker in particular has openly admitted in the past that himself and his EU cronies lie when addressing European citizens when they dare to ask what’s going on in the European corridors of secrecy.
These things make the headlines but in the grand scheme of things are completely inconsequential to an individual.
For a family of 5 that's an extra 35 quid on top of their holiday. Might not seem a lot to you but it's still a total waste of money with zero tangible benefits of leaving the EU.
We probably need to see the WA Bill defeated heavily and another few weeks to tick by before those Tory remainers consider a move to stop No Deal or WA going through end March. These 25 have two options - cross the floor or try putting May in an armlock! It will take an extreme level of exasperation before they throw her under the bus. The level of WA defeat might lead May to change tack? If not people have to remove her to secure a different outcome. It looks like February before this will be resolved, perhaps even right up to the wire in March.
NB At some point Labour will have to unwrap their ambiguity (!) which might be problematic. Right now they can continue with their mix of fantasy, Norway and Remain because the alternatives are far worse and WA or No Deal is where we are headed until something changes. I hope everybody is clear on that: we are heading for No Deal if nothing happens or the WA with a permanent backstop if that is passed.
This is the way May designed the two year process so as to force an outcome. And she will stay as PM as long as she can.
Perhaps we should pay attention to Soubry, Umunna and other centrists who ultimately control the timing of a swing. The question is whether all those to the left of the WA and Hard Brexit can come together and land on a single plan. The obvious answer is to unite behind a people's vote option with tighter definition of the options and tighter control of the rules. But that requires that either May does a U-Turn or she is taken out.
2) yes there is that comment he made about how, as part of his job where he is privy to quite a lot of confidential and sensitive data, it is necessary not to be transparent and honest at times to prevent panic or causing market movements. The same applies for any person in the top jobs of politics and business. It is completely unrealistic for anyone in an important role to put total transparency ahead of their fiduciary duty and theirr ability to discharge their responsibilities effectively.