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The influence of the EU on Britain.

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  • edited November 2017

    seth plum said:

    As I have been trying to point out here on GDP forecasts for several months now...

    Whose she.... Its funny as on lbc last week a professor of economics said quite the opposite.

    Also on Ian dale show last week when talking to an irish minister currently working in their prime ministers government, agreed that ireland exported 50% of its agriculture to the uk.. And 60-70% of its other goods. This came about as their jumped up litle pm was going to veto against us in the up and coming meetings.

    Then comes on this Doctor of irish EU economics and said they export 13% to the uk for agricultural and more to the USA...

    The formers figures were backed up by the independent prior to the brexit vote, who got rheir figures from errr the irish government.
    This is great isn't it?

    On PMQ's today Theresa May said the common travel area in Ireland would stay, and there would be no infrastructure at the border in Ireland.

    Theresa May has abandoned or cancelled Brexit.

    So the export of ROI's agriculture into the UK will continue seeing as how Theresa May has announced today that brexit is over as far as taking back control of the borders is concerned.

    For somebody who says brexit was the democratic will of the British people to object to the democratically electedIrish Taoiseach by calling him 'jumped up', jumped up no less, a democratic decision is a jumped up one, for somebody to say that is truly somebody who loves to be ruled by the undemocratic parliamentary system in the UK where you are all subjects of The Queen.

    Elected yet jumped up, unelected yet sovereign.

    Anyway rejoice, brexit has been cancelled today.

    The BBC ran a story earlier today that the EU don't give a toss about the border but are just using it as a stalling tactic to get Brexit cancelled or a bigger wad of cash from UK.

    But you say it has been canceled this afternoon ?
    So why is everybody rucking on here?
    Except for the fact that the EU is its member states, of which Ireland is one, and they each have to agree on whether sufficient progress has been made. Collectively, also, they will not wish to undermine their external borders.

    So, if the Irish Government does not believe that enough detail has been provided to satisfy it that a workable border solution is at hand; or if the other member states believe that the border proposals do not meet the EU's basic requirements, there will be no move to any second phase of discussions.

    The clue, if you will, about the importance of the border is that that nice Mr. Varadkar keeps talking about a veto. Assuming, just this once, that a politician might know about that of which they speak, this would indicate that his is a position of some strength, and not one that can just be ignored. On a personal level, I would have expected, had the rest of the EU wished to be able to overrule him, that the award of the EMA/EBA might have been delayed to allow for potential use as compensation/sweetener.
    The other part of the BBC story alluded to previously constructive talks between the UK/ROI about the border, which were strangely halted, and the inference was that the EU had told the ROI to stop talking.
    I'd love to know what constructive talks had happened regarding the status of the border, as opposed to the Common Travel Area. Because, if there had been, can you honestly imagine the Brexit Bulldog claiming it as a great step forward.

    There is no way to discuss the border in Ireland without involving the EU, as it will be an external border for the EU as well, so there was no possibility of talks of any substance without both Irish and wider EU input.

    And, to be truthful, no talks can be productive when one side espouses such wildly contradictory messages about the border. In wanting to be outside the Customs Union/Single Market, but also seeking no border change, the UK Government is either in delusional cake and eat it mode, or cynically attempting to pave the way for no agreement, blaming the EU. There have, to be fair, been no realistic solutions offered to address the problems created by the flavour of Brexit being pursued at present.

    PS. The ones trying to get the Irish Government to stop talking seem to be the Sun et al, because the Taoiseach and Minister for Foreign Affairs are having no difficulty at all in that regard at present...
  • seth plum said:

    As I have been trying to point out here on GDP forecasts for several months now...

    Whose she.... Its funny as on lbc last week a professor of economics said quite the opposite.

    Also on Ian dale show last week when talking to an irish minister currently working in their prime ministers government, agreed that ireland exported 50% of its agriculture to the uk.. And 60-70% of its other goods. This came about as their jumped up litle pm was going to veto against us in the up and coming meetings.

    Then comes on this Doctor of irish EU economics and said they export 13% to the uk for agricultural and more to the USA...

    The formers figures were backed up by the independent prior to the brexit vote, who got rheir figures from errr the irish government.
    This is great isn't it?

    On PMQ's today Theresa May said the common travel area in Ireland would stay, and there would be no infrastructure at the border in Ireland.

    Theresa May has abandoned or cancelled Brexit.

    So the export of ROI's agriculture into the UK will continue seeing as how Theresa May has announced today that brexit is over as far as taking back control of the borders is concerned.

    For somebody who says brexit was the democratic will of the British people to object to the democratically electedIrish Taoiseach by calling him 'jumped up', jumped up no less, a democratic decision is a jumped up one, for somebody to say that is truly somebody who loves to be ruled by the undemocratic parliamentary system in the UK where you are all subjects of The Queen.

    Elected yet jumped up, unelected yet sovereign.

    Anyway rejoice, brexit has been cancelled today.

    The BBC ran a story earlier today that the EU don't give a toss about the border but are just using it as a stalling tactic to get Brexit cancelled or a bigger wad of cash from UK.

    But you say it has been canceled this afternoon ?
    So why is everybody rucking on here?
    Except for the fact that the EU is its member states, of which Ireland is one, and they each have to agree on whether sufficient progress has been made. Collectively, also, they will not wish to undermine their external borders.

    So, if the Irish Government does not believe that enough detail has been provided to satisfy it that a workable border solution is at hand; or if the other member states believe that the border proposals do not meet the EU's basic requirements, there will be no move to any second phase of discussions.

    The clue, if you will, about the importance of the border is that that nice Mr. Varadkar keeps talking about a veto. Assuming, just this once, that a politician might know about that of which they speak, this would indicate that his is a position of some strength, and not one that can just be ignored. On a personal level, I would have expected, had the rest of the EU wished to be able to overrule him, that the award of the EMA/EBA might have been delayed to allow for potential use as compensation/sweetener.
    The other part of the BBC story alluded to previously constructive talks between the UK/ROI about the border, which were strangely halted, and the inference was that the EU had told the ROI to stop talking.
    I'd love to know what constructive talks had happened regarding the status of the border, as opposed to the Common Travel Area. Because, if there had been, can you honestly imagine the Brexit Bulldog claiming it as a great step forward.

    There is no way to discuss the border in Ireland without involving the EU, as it will be an external border for the EU as well, so there was no possibility of talks of any substance without both Irish and wider EU input.

    And, to be truthful, no talks can be productive when one side espouses such wildly contradictory messages about the border. In wanting to be outside the Customs Union/Single Market, but also seeking no border change, the UK Government is either in delusional cake and eat it mode, or cynically attempting to pave the way for no agreement, blaming the EU. There have, to be fair, been no realistic solutions offered to address the problems created by the flavour of Brexit being pursued at present.

    PS. The ones trying to get the Irish Government to stop talking seem to be the Sun et al, because the Taoiseach and Minister for Foreign Affairs are having no difficulty at all in that regard at present...
    There will be a lot of "Chatham House" stuff going on that we won't find out about, so maybe it was that.
  • As I have been trying to point out here on GDP forecasts for several months now...

    Whose she.... Its funny as on lbc last week a professor of economics said quite the opposite.

    Also on Ian dale show last week when talking to an irish minister currently working in their prime ministers government, agreed that ireland exported 50% of its agriculture to the uk.. And 60-70% of its other goods. This came about as their jumped up litle pm was going to veto against us in the up and coming meetings.

    Then comes on this Doctor of irish EU economics and said they export 13% to the uk for agricultural and more to the USA...

    The formers figures were backed up by the independent prior to the brexit vote, who got rheir figures from errr the irish government.
    The figure for 60-70% of Irish exported goods going to the UK would, I might suggest, include goods in transit. While the impact on the Irish economy is more significant for agricultural products, especially beef and milk, the UK is nowhere near as important to the Irish economy as it once was (a far greater proportion of Irish business relies on the rest of the EU).

    Jumped up or otherwise, the Taoiseach is doing his best to represent Irish interests, even if that means voting against entering into future relationship discussions. He seems, at the moment, to be doing a better job of gaining necessary support from the EU than his counterpart.
    I dont really care about % s on either side of the camp.. Or twitter comments by pratts who dont matter and who have not got the foggiest. My point we can sit all day and post ridicculous links by people no-ones heard off to back their narrow view... By the way where is link man, is he on holiday.
    If you're referring to Stephanie Flanders as being a pratt no one's heard of who hasn't got a clue you really aren't doing yourself any favours. But I expect you've Googled her for yourself by now.
  • Chizz said:

    Chizz said:

    Chizz said:

    Chizz said:
    They have spent 250 mill on a badger cull - so far in a five year plan I believe.
    Big numbers but nothing to be afraid of.
    Just to be clear, you're saying that, instead of having £350m extra cash to spend, we have to find £57m a week is "nothing to be afraid of"?
    Leave it to the experts at the Treasury.
    These twitter twits are just frightening the children again.
    The Chancellor announced the additional cost of £3bn. So, again, let me suggest that voting for a windfall of £350m and, instead of getting it, receiving a bill of £57m, is probably worth being "afraid of", on balance. Although, as you brought up the issue of "the children", maybe we should we just leave it to them to worry about, like every other part of the self-inflicted economic chaos that is being brought about by Brexit.
    IF the £350m a week is true (and who knows?) it will be a payment we will not be making for the foreseeable future. That's a big total !
    All the numbers are made up anyway !
    Don't panic - let's Brexit.
    1. We have not seen any benefit from the £350m a week. As predicted.
    2. We have - today - stumped up another £57m a week.

    The former number was, of course, made up, unreliable, a lie - call it what you will. The latter - our cost, to be paid by UK taxpayers - is a fact, introduced by the Chancellor today and payable for (at least) the next two years.

    So, whereas we were promised we would be better off to the tune of £350m, so far that estimate is out by £407m a week. That's a lot of hospitals we are going to have to do without.
    The Sun guidelines for comparisons:

    Temperature: Hot - compare to Benidorm, Cold - compare to Moscow
    Land Size - area comparisons to be in football pitches
    Distance - Medium - use double decker buses, Long - use the Moon, if possible use both.
    Gov't Spending - medium = use nurses, Large = use hospitals

    Sun Brexit update:

    Tempers in the Brexit negotiation room were hotter than Benidorm today, when the UK Government revealed it wants an area the size of 100 football pitches cut off from France and stuck on Dover as compensation for them having the only "other end" of the Channel Tunnel. A Government spokesman said that although the exercise would cost the same as building 10 new hospitals, and the associated paperwork would fill 6 double decked buses, the amount of trains we have sent over to France since the Chunnel opened would stretch to the moon and back and we are entitle to compensation. The cost of the exercise has been estimated by some bloke on twitter to be around £350m a week - enough to employ 200,000 nurses. A Treasury spokesman said " anyway, where would 200,000 extra nurses live ?".
  • As I have been trying to point out here on GDP forecasts for several months now...

    Whose she.... Its funny as on lbc last week a professor of economics said quite the opposite.

    Also on Ian dale show last week when talking to an irish minister currently working in their prime ministers government, agreed that ireland exported 50% of its agriculture to the uk.. And 60-70% of its other goods. This came about as their jumped up litle pm was going to veto against us in the up and coming meetings.

    Then comes on this Doctor of irish EU economics and said they export 13% to the uk for agricultural and more to the USA...

    The formers figures were backed up by the independent prior to the brexit vote, who got rheir figures from errr the irish government.
    The figure for 60-70% of Irish exported goods going to the UK would, I might suggest, include goods in transit. While the impact on the Irish economy is more significant for agricultural products, especially beef and milk, the UK is nowhere near as important to the Irish economy as it once was (a far greater proportion of Irish business relies on the rest of the EU).

    Jumped up or otherwise, the Taoiseach is doing his best to represent Irish interests, even if that means voting against entering into future relationship discussions. He seems, at the moment, to be doing a better job of gaining necessary support from the EU than his counterpart.
    I dont really care about % s on either side of the camp.. Or twitter comments by pratts who dont matter and who have not got the foggiest. My point we can sit all day and post ridicculous links by people no-ones heard off to back their narrow view... By the way where is link man, is he on holiday.
    If you're referring to Stephanie Flanders as being a pratt no one's heard of who hasn't got a clue you really aren't doing yourself any favours. But I expect you've Googled her for yourself by now.
    I will take a bet that the OBR growth forecasts will be wrong. They always are. Trying to use forecasts to prove anything is plain dumb.

    The future of the economy is not fixed and depends on a myriad of unknown factors. However, if the government does not improve its support for economic growth-more infrastructure building, house building, support for new technologies and higher interest rates-we will be held back
  • edited November 2017
    Southbank said:

    As I have been trying to point out here on GDP forecasts for several months now...

    Whose she.... Its funny as on lbc last week a professor of economics said quite the opposite.

    Also on Ian dale show last week when talking to an irish minister currently working in their prime ministers government, agreed that ireland exported 50% of its agriculture to the uk.. And 60-70% of its other goods. This came about as their jumped up litle pm was going to veto against us in the up and coming meetings.

    Then comes on this Doctor of irish EU economics and said they export 13% to the uk for agricultural and more to the USA...

    The formers figures were backed up by the independent prior to the brexit vote, who got rheir figures from errr the irish government.
    The figure for 60-70% of Irish exported goods going to the UK would, I might suggest, include goods in transit. While the impact on the Irish economy is more significant for agricultural products, especially beef and milk, the UK is nowhere near as important to the Irish economy as it once was (a far greater proportion of Irish business relies on the rest of the EU).

    Jumped up or otherwise, the Taoiseach is doing his best to represent Irish interests, even if that means voting against entering into future relationship discussions. He seems, at the moment, to be doing a better job of gaining necessary support from the EU than his counterpart.
    I dont really care about % s on either side of the camp.. Or twitter comments by pratts who dont matter and who have not got the foggiest. My point we can sit all day and post ridicculous links by people no-ones heard off to back their narrow view... By the way where is link man, is he on holiday.
    If you're referring to Stephanie Flanders as being a pratt no one's heard of who hasn't got a clue you really aren't doing yourself any favours. But I expect you've Googled her for yourself by now.
    I will take a bet that the OBR growth forecasts will be wrong. They always are. Trying to use forecasts to prove anything is plain dumb.

    The future of the economy is not fixed and depends on a myriad of unknown factors. However, if the government does not improve its support for economic growth-more infrastructure building, house building, support for new technologies and higher interest rates-we will be held back
    Yeah but wrong which way? They could also be too optimistic.
  • edited November 2017
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/nov/22/how-brexit-looms-over-the-irish-border-its-the-berlin-wall-approaching-us

    “There are twice as many crossing points [into the EU] as from the Arctic to the Black Sea. That’s an extraordinary thing to think about – Donegal to Louth has more crossings than the line from the north of Europe to the south of Europe.”
  • https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/nov/22/how-brexit-looms-over-the-irish-border-its-the-berlin-wall-approaching-us

    “There are twice as many crossing points [into the EU] as from the Arctic to the Black Sea. That’s an extraordinary thing to think about – Donegal to Louth has more crossings than the line from the north of Europe to the south of Europe.”

    What fantastic infrastructure.
  • https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/nov/22/how-brexit-looms-over-the-irish-border-its-the-berlin-wall-approaching-us

    “There are twice as many crossing points [into the EU] as from the Arctic to the Black Sea. That’s an extraordinary thing to think about – Donegal to Louth has more crossings than the line from the north of Europe to the south of Europe.”

    I'm not sure if it's just me but that doesn't seem particularly extraordinary.
  • Sponsored links:


  • stonemuse said:

    To be honest I have never heard of this.


    The European Commission has given a Budget Day boost to Philip Hammond, announcing that it will be taking the UK off the list of countries with too-large spending deficits.
    Naming the Chancellor personally, Pierre Moscovici, the EU finance's commissioner, told reporters in Brussels that the UK would be removed from the EU's Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP).
    The economics chief said the UK had "durably" reduced its deficit, meaning it would no longer be subject to the potential fines and economic sanctions for having a higher deficit.
    “On what happens to be the day on which Phil Hammond presents his 2018 budget in the House of Commons, we have good news for him - we are recommending the closure of the Excessive Deficit Procedure for the UK because the country durably reduced its deficit from a peak of 10 per cent of GDP in 2009-2010 to 2.3 per cent in 2016-17 in line with he Council recommendation of 2015," he said on Wednesday, hours ahead of the UK's Budget statement.

    Meanwhile in Greece. Portugal and Italy...............
    Yes. What about Portugal?

    I'll leave @seriously_red to update you on the progress in Italy.

    Greece is still a problem. It was supposed to bring the euro crashing down. In 2009.

    I hope you are more precise about the performance and trends affecting your own business, the one that operates in France, as you told us.

  • So the OBR forecasts are in line with the Treasury pre referendum forecasts on growth. So no project fear, it’s project fact
  • Chill Ibiza folks
    Theresa May announced the end of brexit in Prime Ministers Questions on Wednesday 22nd November 2017.
    No taking back control of the border.
    She has decided that the will of the people should be ignored.
  • Southbank said:

    As I have been trying to point out here on GDP forecasts for several months now...

    Whose she.... Its funny as on lbc last week a professor of economics said quite the opposite.

    Also on Ian dale show last week when talking to an irish minister currently working in their prime ministers government, agreed that ireland exported 50% of its agriculture to the uk.. And 60-70% of its other goods. This came about as their jumped up litle pm was going to veto against us in the up and coming meetings.

    Then comes on this Doctor of irish EU economics and said they export 13% to the uk for agricultural and more to the USA...

    The formers figures were backed up by the independent prior to the brexit vote, who got rheir figures from errr the irish government.
    The figure for 60-70% of Irish exported goods going to the UK would, I might suggest, include goods in transit. While the impact on the Irish economy is more significant for agricultural products, especially beef and milk, the UK is nowhere near as important to the Irish economy as it once was (a far greater proportion of Irish business relies on the rest of the EU).

    Jumped up or otherwise, the Taoiseach is doing his best to represent Irish interests, even if that means voting against entering into future relationship discussions. He seems, at the moment, to be doing a better job of gaining necessary support from the EU than his counterpart.
    I dont really care about % s on either side of the camp.. Or twitter comments by pratts who dont matter and who have not got the foggiest. My point we can sit all day and post ridicculous links by people no-ones heard off to back their narrow view... By the way where is link man, is he on holiday.
    If you're referring to Stephanie Flanders as being a pratt no one's heard of who hasn't got a clue you really aren't doing yourself any favours. But I expect you've Googled her for yourself by now.
    I will take a bet that the OBR growth forecasts will be wrong. They always are. Trying to use forecasts to prove anything is plain dumb.

    The future of the economy is not fixed and depends on a myriad of unknown factors. However, if the government does not improve its support for economic growth-more infrastructure building, house building, support for new technologies and higher interest rates-we will be held back
    Yeah, you're right. No economist, politician or business should ever use forecasts in formulating an opinion or strategy. They should just wait for stuff to happen and react accordingly. That's the sensible approach.

    I expect you'd hold the same opinion if the OBR was predicting growth several points above the Eurozone too eh?
    Yes I would. The OBR has been predicting increases in productivity for the past 8 years and has been wrong every time. The reason? because it is not a magical process but dependent upon government policies. It depends upon having a major government led infrastructure investment programme and an increase in interest rates to lay the basis for proper productivity improvements. Failing that the economy will continue to bump along until the next financial crisis whther we are in or out of the EU.
  • Southbank said:

    Southbank said:

    As I have been trying to point out here on GDP forecasts for several months now...

    Whose she.... Its funny as on lbc last week a professor of economics said quite the opposite.

    Also on Ian dale show last week when talking to an irish minister currently working in their prime ministers government, agreed that ireland exported 50% of its agriculture to the uk.. And 60-70% of its other goods. This came about as their jumped up litle pm was going to veto against us in the up and coming meetings.

    Then comes on this Doctor of irish EU economics and said they export 13% to the uk for agricultural and more to the USA...

    The formers figures were backed up by the independent prior to the brexit vote, who got rheir figures from errr the irish government.
    The figure for 60-70% of Irish exported goods going to the UK would, I might suggest, include goods in transit. While the impact on the Irish economy is more significant for agricultural products, especially beef and milk, the UK is nowhere near as important to the Irish economy as it once was (a far greater proportion of Irish business relies on the rest of the EU).

    Jumped up or otherwise, the Taoiseach is doing his best to represent Irish interests, even if that means voting against entering into future relationship discussions. He seems, at the moment, to be doing a better job of gaining necessary support from the EU than his counterpart.
    I dont really care about % s on either side of the camp.. Or twitter comments by pratts who dont matter and who have not got the foggiest. My point we can sit all day and post ridicculous links by people no-ones heard off to back their narrow view... By the way where is link man, is he on holiday.
    If you're referring to Stephanie Flanders as being a pratt no one's heard of who hasn't got a clue you really aren't doing yourself any favours. But I expect you've Googled her for yourself by now.
    I will take a bet that the OBR growth forecasts will be wrong. They always are. Trying to use forecasts to prove anything is plain dumb.

    The future of the economy is not fixed and depends on a myriad of unknown factors. However, if the government does not improve its support for economic growth-more infrastructure building, house building, support for new technologies and higher interest rates-we will be held back
    Yeah, you're right. No economist, politician or business should ever use forecasts in formulating an opinion or strategy. They should just wait for stuff to happen and react accordingly. That's the sensible approach.

    I expect you'd hold the same opinion if the OBR was predicting growth several points above the Eurozone too eh?
    Yes I would. The OBR has been predicting increases in productivity for the past 8 years and has been wrong every time. The reason? because it is not a magical process but dependent upon government policies. It depends upon having a major government led infrastructure investment programme and an increase in interest rates to lay the basis for proper productivity improvements. Failing that the economy will continue to bump along until the next financial crisis whther we are in or out of the EU.
    Considering the OBR was only set up in 2010 that would be some feat for it to have been wrong ever since a year before it was formed.

    Has it been wrong every year? No, that's not true. But it was wrong back in 2014 when its projected increases were in fact too low (not too high as you imply above).
  • seth plum said:

    Chill Ibiza folks
    Theresa May announced the end of brexit in Prime Ministers Questions on Wednesday 22nd November 2017.
    No taking back control of the border.
    She has decided that the will of the people should be ignored.

    Hard border in Northern Ireland = Brexit?????
  • Fiiish said:

    Southbank said:

    Southbank said:

    As I have been trying to point out here on GDP forecasts for several months now...

    Whose she.... Its funny as on lbc last week a professor of economics said quite the opposite.

    Also on Ian dale show last week when talking to an irish minister currently working in their prime ministers government, agreed that ireland exported 50% of its agriculture to the uk.. And 60-70% of its other goods. This came about as their jumped up litle pm was going to veto against us in the up and coming meetings.

    Then comes on this Doctor of irish EU economics and said they export 13% to the uk for agricultural and more to the USA...

    The formers figures were backed up by the independent prior to the brexit vote, who got rheir figures from errr the irish government.
    The figure for 60-70% of Irish exported goods going to the UK would, I might suggest, include goods in transit. While the impact on the Irish economy is more significant for agricultural products, especially beef and milk, the UK is nowhere near as important to the Irish economy as it once was (a far greater proportion of Irish business relies on the rest of the EU).

    Jumped up or otherwise, the Taoiseach is doing his best to represent Irish interests, even if that means voting against entering into future relationship discussions. He seems, at the moment, to be doing a better job of gaining necessary support from the EU than his counterpart.
    I dont really care about % s on either side of the camp.. Or twitter comments by pratts who dont matter and who have not got the foggiest. My point we can sit all day and post ridicculous links by people no-ones heard off to back their narrow view... By the way where is link man, is he on holiday.
    If you're referring to Stephanie Flanders as being a pratt no one's heard of who hasn't got a clue you really aren't doing yourself any favours. But I expect you've Googled her for yourself by now.
    I will take a bet that the OBR growth forecasts will be wrong. They always are. Trying to use forecasts to prove anything is plain dumb.

    The future of the economy is not fixed and depends on a myriad of unknown factors. However, if the government does not improve its support for economic growth-more infrastructure building, house building, support for new technologies and higher interest rates-we will be held back
    Yeah, you're right. No economist, politician or business should ever use forecasts in formulating an opinion or strategy. They should just wait for stuff to happen and react accordingly. That's the sensible approach.

    I expect you'd hold the same opinion if the OBR was predicting growth several points above the Eurozone too eh?
    Yes I would. The OBR has been predicting increases in productivity for the past 8 years and has been wrong every time. The reason? because it is not a magical process but dependent upon government policies. It depends upon having a major government led infrastructure investment programme and an increase in interest rates to lay the basis for proper productivity improvements. Failing that the economy will continue to bump along until the next financial crisis whther we are in or out of the EU.
    Considering the OBR was only set up in 2010 that would be some feat for it to have been wrong ever since a year before it was formed.

    Has it been wrong every year? No, that's not true. But it was wrong back in 2014 when its projected increases were in fact too low (not too high as you imply above).
    It is true. They have been predicting a recovery
    in productivity to pre-financial crisis levels every year. The significance of their predictions now is that they have abandoned that prediction, hence their lower growth predictions overall.

    Economic predictions are a fool's game, because in the real world political and other factors change things.You can only really understand what has happened in an economy after the fact. Hence the constant revisions to statistics.
  • Southbank said:

    Fiiish said:

    Southbank said:

    Southbank said:

    As I have been trying to point out here on GDP forecasts for several months now...

    Whose she.... Its funny as on lbc last week a professor of economics said quite the opposite.

    Also on Ian dale show last week when talking to an irish minister currently working in their prime ministers government, agreed that ireland exported 50% of its agriculture to the uk.. And 60-70% of its other goods. This came about as their jumped up litle pm was going to veto against us in the up and coming meetings.

    Then comes on this Doctor of irish EU economics and said they export 13% to the uk for agricultural and more to the USA...

    The formers figures were backed up by the independent prior to the brexit vote, who got rheir figures from errr the irish government.
    The figure for 60-70% of Irish exported goods going to the UK would, I might suggest, include goods in transit. While the impact on the Irish economy is more significant for agricultural products, especially beef and milk, the UK is nowhere near as important to the Irish economy as it once was (a far greater proportion of Irish business relies on the rest of the EU).

    Jumped up or otherwise, the Taoiseach is doing his best to represent Irish interests, even if that means voting against entering into future relationship discussions. He seems, at the moment, to be doing a better job of gaining necessary support from the EU than his counterpart.
    I dont really care about % s on either side of the camp.. Or twitter comments by pratts who dont matter and who have not got the foggiest. My point we can sit all day and post ridicculous links by people no-ones heard off to back their narrow view... By the way where is link man, is he on holiday.
    If you're referring to Stephanie Flanders as being a pratt no one's heard of who hasn't got a clue you really aren't doing yourself any favours. But I expect you've Googled her for yourself by now.
    I will take a bet that the OBR growth forecasts will be wrong. They always are. Trying to use forecasts to prove anything is plain dumb.

    The future of the economy is not fixed and depends on a myriad of unknown factors. However, if the government does not improve its support for economic growth-more infrastructure building, house building, support for new technologies and higher interest rates-we will be held back
    Yeah, you're right. No economist, politician or business should ever use forecasts in formulating an opinion or strategy. They should just wait for stuff to happen and react accordingly. That's the sensible approach.

    I expect you'd hold the same opinion if the OBR was predicting growth several points above the Eurozone too eh?
    Yes I would. The OBR has been predicting increases in productivity for the past 8 years and has been wrong every time. The reason? because it is not a magical process but dependent upon government policies. It depends upon having a major government led infrastructure investment programme and an increase in interest rates to lay the basis for proper productivity improvements. Failing that the economy will continue to bump along until the next financial crisis whther we are in or out of the EU.
    Considering the OBR was only set up in 2010 that would be some feat for it to have been wrong ever since a year before it was formed.

    Has it been wrong every year? No, that's not true. But it was wrong back in 2014 when its projected increases were in fact too low (not too high as you imply above).
    It is true. They have been predicting a recovery
    in productivity to pre-financial crisis levels every year. The significance of their predictions now is that they have abandoned that prediction, hence their lower growth predictions overall.

    Economic predictions are a fool's game, because in the real world political and other factors change things.You can only really understand what has happened in an economy after the fact. Hence the constant revisions to statistics.
    But it hasn't been wrong every year, that is a fact. And in one of the times it has been wrong, it has actually predicted lower growth than what actually occurred in the past. This is just something you have gotten wrong.

    You might think economic predictions are a fool's game. The fact that many people manage to make a living through making decisions off economic forecasts would suggest that they are not. The only reason you seem to ignore economic forecasts is because they don't seem to fit your narrative. Surely a reasonable person should understand the facts first then form an opinion, as opposed to what you have been doing for months now, clinging onto an uninformed opinion then trying to fit the facts around what you incorrectly think is true.
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  • edited November 2017
    Southbank said:

    Fiiish said:

    Southbank said:

    Southbank said:

    As I have been trying to point out here on GDP forecasts for several months now...

    Whose she.... Its funny as on lbc last week a professor of economics said quite the opposite.

    Also on Ian dale show last week when talking to an irish minister currently working in their prime ministers government, agreed that ireland exported 50% of its agriculture to the uk.. And 60-70% of its other goods. This came about as their jumped up litle pm was going to veto against us in the up and coming meetings.

    Then comes on this Doctor of irish EU economics and said they export 13% to the uk for agricultural and more to the USA...

    The formers figures were backed up by the independent prior to the brexit vote, who got rheir figures from errr the irish government.
    The figure for 60-70% of Irish exported goods going to the UK would, I might suggest, include goods in transit. While the impact on the Irish economy is more significant for agricultural products, especially beef and milk, the UK is nowhere near as important to the Irish economy as it once was (a far greater proportion of Irish business relies on the rest of the EU).

    Jumped up or otherwise, the Taoiseach is doing his best to represent Irish interests, even if that means voting against entering into future relationship discussions. He seems, at the moment, to be doing a better job of gaining necessary support from the EU than his counterpart.
    I dont really care about % s on either side of the camp.. Or twitter comments by pratts who dont matter and who have not got the foggiest. My point we can sit all day and post ridicculous links by people no-ones heard off to back their narrow view... By the way where is link man, is he on holiday.
    If you're referring to Stephanie Flanders as being a pratt no one's heard of who hasn't got a clue you really aren't doing yourself any favours. But I expect you've Googled her for yourself by now.
    I will take a bet that the OBR growth forecasts will be wrong. They always are. Trying to use forecasts to prove anything is plain dumb.

    The future of the economy is not fixed and depends on a myriad of unknown factors. However, if the government does not improve its support for economic growth-more infrastructure building, house building, support for new technologies and higher interest rates-we will be held back
    Yeah, you're right. No economist, politician or business should ever use forecasts in formulating an opinion or strategy. They should just wait for stuff to happen and react accordingly. That's the sensible approach.

    I expect you'd hold the same opinion if the OBR was predicting growth several points above the Eurozone too eh?
    Yes I would. The OBR has been predicting increases in productivity for the past 8 years and has been wrong every time. The reason? because it is not a magical process but dependent upon government policies. It depends upon having a major government led infrastructure investment programme and an increase in interest rates to lay the basis for proper productivity improvements. Failing that the economy will continue to bump along until the next financial crisis whther we are in or out of the EU.
    Considering the OBR was only set up in 2010 that would be some feat for it to have been wrong ever since a year before it was formed.

    Has it been wrong every year? No, that's not true. But it was wrong back in 2014 when its projected increases were in fact too low (not too high as you imply above).
    It is true. They have been predicting a recovery
    in productivity to pre-financial crisis levels every year. The significance of their predictions now is that they have abandoned that prediction, hence their lower growth predictions overall.

    Economic predictions are a fool's game, because in the real world political and other factors change things.You can only really understand what has happened in an economy after the fact. Hence the constant revisions to statistics.
    Yes they may be a fool's game as with any other prediction - but future actions planned by any government need to take into account growth or retraction scenarios as public spending (revenue spend) is based on likely tax take. Or do you think it's best to ignore economic probabilities and just march on regardless - all a bit Mr Micawber if you ask me.

    What is 'likely' is that growth over the next few years will lag behind pretty much every other developed economy and most developing economies.

    As you mentioned, the lack of infrastructure investment over decades, by all shades of government, has lead to the productivity mess we are in - nothing to do with the EU of course.

  • Fiiish said:

    Southbank said:

    Fiiish said:

    Southbank said:

    Southbank said:

    As I have been trying to point out here on GDP forecasts for several months now...

    Whose she.... Its funny as on lbc last week a professor of economics said quite the opposite.

    Also on Ian dale show last week when talking to an irish minister currently working in their prime ministers government, agreed that ireland exported 50% of its agriculture to the uk.. And 60-70% of its other goods. This came about as their jumped up litle pm was going to veto against us in the up and coming meetings.

    Then comes on this Doctor of irish EU economics and said they export 13% to the uk for agricultural and more to the USA...

    The formers figures were backed up by the independent prior to the brexit vote, who got rheir figures from errr the irish government.
    The figure for 60-70% of Irish exported goods going to the UK would, I might suggest, include goods in transit. While the impact on the Irish economy is more significant for agricultural products, especially beef and milk, the UK is nowhere near as important to the Irish economy as it once was (a far greater proportion of Irish business relies on the rest of the EU).

    Jumped up or otherwise, the Taoiseach is doing his best to represent Irish interests, even if that means voting against entering into future relationship discussions. He seems, at the moment, to be doing a better job of gaining necessary support from the EU than his counterpart.
    I dont really care about % s on either side of the camp.. Or twitter comments by pratts who dont matter and who have not got the foggiest. My point we can sit all day and post ridicculous links by people no-ones heard off to back their narrow view... By the way where is link man, is he on holiday.
    If you're referring to Stephanie Flanders as being a pratt no one's heard of who hasn't got a clue you really aren't doing yourself any favours. But I expect you've Googled her for yourself by now.
    I will take a bet that the OBR growth forecasts will be wrong. They always are. Trying to use forecasts to prove anything is plain dumb.

    The future of the economy is not fixed and depends on a myriad of unknown factors. However, if the government does not improve its support for economic growth-more infrastructure building, house building, support for new technologies and higher interest rates-we will be held back
    Yeah, you're right. No economist, politician or business should ever use forecasts in formulating an opinion or strategy. They should just wait for stuff to happen and react accordingly. That's the sensible approach.

    I expect you'd hold the same opinion if the OBR was predicting growth several points above the Eurozone too eh?
    Yes I would. The OBR has been predicting increases in productivity for the past 8 years and has been wrong every time. The reason? because it is not a magical process but dependent upon government policies. It depends upon having a major government led infrastructure investment programme and an increase in interest rates to lay the basis for proper productivity improvements. Failing that the economy will continue to bump along until the next financial crisis whther we are in or out of the EU.
    Considering the OBR was only set up in 2010 that would be some feat for it to have been wrong ever since a year before it was formed.

    Has it been wrong every year? No, that's not true. But it was wrong back in 2014 when its projected increases were in fact too low (not too high as you imply above).
    It is true. They have been predicting a recovery
    in productivity to pre-financial crisis levels every year. The significance of their predictions now is that they have abandoned that prediction, hence their lower growth predictions overall.

    Economic predictions are a fool's game, because in the real world political and other factors change things.You can only really understand what has happened in an economy after the fact. Hence the constant revisions to statistics.
    But it hasn't been wrong every year, that is a fact. And in one of the times it has been wrong, it has actually predicted lower growth than what actually occurred in the past. This is just something you have gotten wrong.

    You might think economic predictions are a fool's game. The fact that many people manage to make a living through making decisions off economic forecasts would suggest that they are not. The only reason you seem to ignore economic forecasts is because they don't seem to fit your narrative. Surely a reasonable person should understand the facts first then form an opinion, as opposed to what you have been doing for months now, clinging onto an uninformed opinion then trying to fit the facts around what you incorrectly think is true.
    I think you are confusing their overall growth predictions with their productivity predictions.

    I have been a long term critic of government policies on growth. Our productivity problems long precede Brexit, which has become a bit of a displacement activity on all sides from dealing with our fundamental economic weakness-low productivity.

    Peope make money from astrology as well, which is marginally less accurate than economic forecasting.
  • Southbank said:

    Fiiish said:

    Southbank said:

    Fiiish said:

    Southbank said:

    Southbank said:

    As I have been trying to point out here on GDP forecasts for several months now...

    Whose she.... Its funny as on lbc last week a professor of economics said quite the opposite.

    Also on Ian dale show last week when talking to an irish minister currently working in their prime ministers government, agreed that ireland exported 50% of its agriculture to the uk.. And 60-70% of its other goods. This came about as their jumped up litle pm was going to veto against us in the up and coming meetings.

    Then comes on this Doctor of irish EU economics and said they export 13% to the uk for agricultural and more to the USA...

    The formers figures were backed up by the independent prior to the brexit vote, who got rheir figures from errr the irish government.
    The figure for 60-70% of Irish exported goods going to the UK would, I might suggest, include goods in transit. While the impact on the Irish economy is more significant for agricultural products, especially beef and milk, the UK is nowhere near as important to the Irish economy as it once was (a far greater proportion of Irish business relies on the rest of the EU).

    Jumped up or otherwise, the Taoiseach is doing his best to represent Irish interests, even if that means voting against entering into future relationship discussions. He seems, at the moment, to be doing a better job of gaining necessary support from the EU than his counterpart.
    I dont really care about % s on either side of the camp.. Or twitter comments by pratts who dont matter and who have not got the foggiest. My point we can sit all day and post ridicculous links by people no-ones heard off to back their narrow view... By the way where is link man, is he on holiday.
    If you're referring to Stephanie Flanders as being a pratt no one's heard of who hasn't got a clue you really aren't doing yourself any favours. But I expect you've Googled her for yourself by now.
    I will take a bet that the OBR growth forecasts will be wrong. They always are. Trying to use forecasts to prove anything is plain dumb.

    The future of the economy is not fixed and depends on a myriad of unknown factors. However, if the government does not improve its support for economic growth-more infrastructure building, house building, support for new technologies and higher interest rates-we will be held back
    Yeah, you're right. No economist, politician or business should ever use forecasts in formulating an opinion or strategy. They should just wait for stuff to happen and react accordingly. That's the sensible approach.

    I expect you'd hold the same opinion if the OBR was predicting growth several points above the Eurozone too eh?
    Yes I would. The OBR has been predicting increases in productivity for the past 8 years and has been wrong every time. The reason? because it is not a magical process but dependent upon government policies. It depends upon having a major government led infrastructure investment programme and an increase in interest rates to lay the basis for proper productivity improvements. Failing that the economy will continue to bump along until the next financial crisis whther we are in or out of the EU.
    Considering the OBR was only set up in 2010 that would be some feat for it to have been wrong ever since a year before it was formed.

    Has it been wrong every year? No, that's not true. But it was wrong back in 2014 when its projected increases were in fact too low (not too high as you imply above).
    It is true. They have been predicting a recovery
    in productivity to pre-financial crisis levels every year. The significance of their predictions now is that they have abandoned that prediction, hence their lower growth predictions overall.

    Economic predictions are a fool's game, because in the real world political and other factors change things.You can only really understand what has happened in an economy after the fact. Hence the constant revisions to statistics.
    But it hasn't been wrong every year, that is a fact. And in one of the times it has been wrong, it has actually predicted lower growth than what actually occurred in the past. This is just something you have gotten wrong.

    You might think economic predictions are a fool's game. The fact that many people manage to make a living through making decisions off economic forecasts would suggest that they are not. The only reason you seem to ignore economic forecasts is because they don't seem to fit your narrative. Surely a reasonable person should understand the facts first then form an opinion, as opposed to what you have been doing for months now, clinging onto an uninformed opinion then trying to fit the facts around what you incorrectly think is true.
    I think you are confusing their overall growth predictions with their productivity predictions.

    I have been a long term critic of government policies on growth. Our productivity problems long precede Brexit, which has become a bit of a displacement activity on all sides from dealing with our fundamental economic weakness-low productivity.

    Peope make money from astrology as well, which is marginally less accurate than economic forecasting.
    A key difference between monetising astrology and economics is that astrologists are being paid other people's money and aren't that rich, comparatively speaking. Those who monetise economics put their own money in and are incredibly wealthy.

    If you don't see any worth in any kind of econonic forecasting then that's your opinion but it's not one shared by almost anyone in a field relevant to the matter.
  • stonemuse said:

    To be honest I have never heard of this.


    The European Commission has given a Budget Day boost to Philip Hammond, announcing that it will be taking the UK off the list of countries with too-large spending deficits.
    Naming the Chancellor personally, Pierre Moscovici, the EU finance's commissioner, told reporters in Brussels that the UK would be removed from the EU's Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP).
    The economics chief said the UK had "durably" reduced its deficit, meaning it would no longer be subject to the potential fines and economic sanctions for having a higher deficit.
    “On what happens to be the day on which Phil Hammond presents his 2018 budget in the House of Commons, we have good news for him - we are recommending the closure of the Excessive Deficit Procedure for the UK because the country durably reduced its deficit from a peak of 10 per cent of GDP in 2009-2010 to 2.3 per cent in 2016-17 in line with he Council recommendation of 2015," he said on Wednesday, hours ahead of the UK's Budget statement.

    Meanwhile in Greece. Portugal and Italy...............
    Yes. What about Portugal?

    I'll leave @seriously_red to update you on the progress in Italy.

    Greece is still a problem. It was supposed to bring the euro crashing down. In 2009.

    I hope you are more precise about the performance and trends affecting your own business, the one that operates in France, as you told us.

    Where are they on this EU list ?
  • seth plum said:

    Chill Ibiza folks
    Theresa May announced the end of brexit in Prime Ministers Questions on Wednesday 22nd November 2017.
    No taking back control of the border.
    She has decided that the will of the people should be ignored.

    Hard border in Northern Ireland = Brexit?????
    Yes.
    How can it be brexit without control of the border?
  • Southbank said:

    Fiiish said:

    Southbank said:

    Fiiish said:

    Southbank said:

    Southbank said:



    I dont really care about % s on either side of the camp.. Or twitter comments by pratts who dont matter and who have not got the foggiest. My point we can sit all day and post ridicculous links by people no-ones heard off to back their narrow view... By the way where is link man, is he on holiday.

    If you're referring to Stephanie Flanders as being a pratt no one's heard of who hasn't got a clue you really aren't doing yourself any favours. But I expect you've Googled her for yourself by now.
    I will take a bet that the OBR growth forecasts will be wrong. They always are. Trying to use forecasts to prove anything is plain dumb.

    The future of the economy is not fixed and depends on a myriad of unknown factors. However, if the government does not improve its support for economic growth-more infrastructure building, house building, support for new technologies and higher interest rates-we will be held back
    Yeah, you're right. No economist, politician or business should ever use forecasts in formulating an opinion or strategy. They should just wait for stuff to happen and react accordingly. That's the sensible approach.

    I expect you'd hold the same opinion if the OBR was predicting growth several points above the Eurozone too eh?
    Yes I would. The OBR has been predicting increases in productivity for the past 8 years and has been wrong every time. The reason? because it is not a magical process but dependent upon government policies. It depends upon having a major government led infrastructure investment programme and an increase in interest rates to lay the basis for proper productivity improvements. Failing that the economy will continue to bump along until the next financial crisis whther we are in or out of the EU.
    Considering the OBR was only set up in 2010 that would be some feat for it to have been wrong ever since a year before it was formed.

    Has it been wrong every year? No, that's not true. But it was wrong back in 2014 when its projected increases were in fact too low (not too high as you imply above).
    It is true. They have been predicting a recovery
    in productivity to pre-financial crisis levels every year. The significance of their predictions now is that they have abandoned that prediction, hence their lower growth predictions overall.

    Economic predictions are a fool's game, because in the real world political and other factors change things.You can only really understand what has happened in an economy after the fact. Hence the constant revisions to statistics.
    But it hasn't been wrong every year, that is a fact. And in one of the times it has been wrong, it has actually predicted lower growth than what actually occurred in the past. This is just something you have gotten wrong.

    You might think economic predictions are a fool's game. The fact that many people manage to make a living through making decisions off economic forecasts would suggest that they are not. The only reason you seem to ignore economic forecasts is because they don't seem to fit your narrative. Surely a reasonable person should understand the facts first then form an opinion, as opposed to what you have been doing for months now, clinging onto an uninformed opinion then trying to fit the facts around what you incorrectly think is true.
    I think you are confusing their overall growth predictions with their productivity predictions.

    I have been a long term critic of government policies on growth. Our productivity problems long precede Brexit, which has become a bit of a displacement activity on all sides from dealing with our fundamental economic weakness-low productivity.

    Peope make money from astrology as well, which is marginally less accurate than economic forecasting.
    I love the way you ape the Michael Gove line that "people are fed up with experts" and yet at the same time produce a perfectly rational observation as to why they have been wrong in the past on growth and productivity.

    Many will share your view on government policies whether they are looking at their own outlook or that of the whole country.

    And Labour have been putting something together that addresses these issues. So much so that some are now accusing Hammond of being "Corbyn lite"!

    In other words the agenda around the political economy is shifting as the Tories attempt to stop the bleeding - in the economy and at the polls.

    We've just seen 1/3 of GDP growth forecasts slashed for the next five years and an admission that productivity improvements will not continue at pre crash levels under this government. So rather than change direction, the government accepts this.

    As you state, this is nothing to do with Brexit. It has everything to do with having some of the best universities in the world but a very poor interface with business and industry when it comes to delivering innovation and leading edge technologies.

    People interested might look into a report recently produced by the IPPR or research the work and thinking of professor Mazzucato.

    Mazzucato on UK challenges

    What I have posted before is that some get way to hung up on Brexit itself whilst failing to notice the transformational nature of the event.

    For sure Boris and his chums convinced millions that leaving the EU would benefit the NHS. Today the reality is hitting home that there is no more money to pay into the NHS and now our growth forecast has sunk below Italy FFS!

    The party of government has completely lost its way and has no policy apart from some gimmick on stamp duty! Meanwhile the regions are primed on the issues thanks to Brexit so Labour has an open goal...

    Labour isn't prioritising Brexit for that is happening and makes little difference. What Labour is looking at is prioritising the underlying issues, offering a shift back to a rational social democratic policy framework where business and the state work together.

    The challenges are the same - it's just that Labour chooses not to blame immigrants or the EU!
  • seth plum said:

    seth plum said:

    Chill Ibiza folks
    Theresa May announced the end of brexit in Prime Ministers Questions on Wednesday 22nd November 2017.
    No taking back control of the border.
    She has decided that the will of the people should be ignored.

    Hard border in Northern Ireland = Brexit?????
    Yes.
    How can it be brexit without control of the border?
    You've had it expalined to you several times, so you're either thick, or being deliberately difficult.

  • The Guardian are reporting on a leak published by RTE: https://theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/23/irish-report-shows-eu-lack-of-respect-for-uk-handling-of-brexit. the RTE report is here: https://rte.ie/news/brexit/2017/1123/922191-brexit-embassies/.

    Whatever your view of Brexit, if accurate, this paints a depressing picture of the chance of progress in the negotiations.
  • So the influence of the EU has been to grow our economy to allow us to fund the NHS, education, and services, and being out of the EU will mean less money for that.

    Blue passports though
  • @Southbank

    I don't know whether you work in business, but I start to suspect not. Anyone in a remotely senior role in business, knows that a business absolutely does forecasts, every year and often looking 5 years ahead. These business forecasts will include inputs from the economic forecasts you so deride. The business' forecasts often turn out to be wrong too.

    Well you take the job of CEO at, say Unilever, and announce that you are going to stop people doing forecasting, for the same reason you deride the use of the OBR forecasts by government. You'll be getting your P45 before you have had the chance to choose your company car.
This discussion has been closed.

Roland Out Forever!