I don't know whether you work in business, but I start to suspect not. Anyone in a remotely senior role in business, knows that a business absolutely does forecasts, every year and often looking 5 years ahead. These business forecasts will include inputs from the economic forecasts you so deride. The business' forecasts often turn out to be wrong too.
Well you take the job of CEO at, say Unilever, and announce that you are going to stop people doing forecasting, for the same reason you deride the use of the OBR forecasts by government. You'll be getting your P45 before you have had the chance to choose your company car.
Au contraire. I do work in business and I also have to work with forecasts which have never proved to be correct, usually for reasons which only appear after the forecast has been made.
There is a good article on this in The Times today, by the way, by Iain Martin who points out that had Nigel Lawson made a 5 year forecast in 1989 he would have missed the fall of the Berlin wall, the end of communism, the first Gulf War, a recession, the creation of the world wide web and Britain's expulsion from the European exchange Rate mechanism.
People obviously need to make educated guesses about the future in order to help make decisions. But life is too chaotic for much of it to be worth anything in real life. I have learned that business can be summed up in one phrase-nothing ventured nothing gained. We need more risk takers and more confidence all round that it is right to take a chance, rather than continued doom and gloom about the future.
I don't know whether you work in business, but I start to suspect not. Anyone in a remotely senior role in business, knows that a business absolutely does forecasts, every year and often looking 5 years ahead. These business forecasts will include inputs from the economic forecasts you so deride. The business' forecasts often turn out to be wrong too.
Well you take the job of CEO at, say Unilever, and announce that you are going to stop people doing forecasting, for the same reason you deride the use of the OBR forecasts by government. You'll be getting your P45 before you have had the chance to choose your company car.
Au contraire. I do work in business and I also have to work with forecasts which have never proved to be correct, usually for reasons which only appear after the forecast has been made.
There is a good article on this in The Times today, by the way, by Iain Martin who points out that had Nigel Lawson made a 5 year forecast in 1989 he would have missed the fall of the Berlin wall, the end of communism, the first Gulf War, a recession, the creation of the world wide web and Britain's expulsion from the European exchange Rate mechanism.
People obviously need to make educated guesses about the future in order to help make decisions. But life is too chaotic for much of it to be worth anything in real life. I have learned that business can be summed up in one phrase-nothing ventured nothing gained. We need more risk takers and more confidence all round that it is right to take a chance, rather than continued doom and gloom about the future.
I would bet the house that Iain would have said they were great forecasts if they showed that leaving the EU boosted growth.
Ffs no one says financial forecasts are concrete predictions of what is going to happen. Same with the weather. It is a statement of 'if things carry on the way things are going now, this is what's likely going to happen'. The thing is then people change their behaviour accordingly. So if people change what they do in response to a forecast on their own behaviour then of course the forecast isn't going to be 100% accurate (although most of them are in the right ballpark, excepting for completely unforeseeable events). This is breathtakingly simple stuff.
You also seem to rail against all forecasts, not just the ones the OBR has produced in its short lifespan. This is a ludicrous position. Have you got any evidence that all forecasts are bunk? Of course not. If your business's forecasts are crap then your business has a problem, not the methodology.
Chill Ibiza folks Theresa May announced the end of brexit in Prime Ministers Questions on Wednesday 22nd November 2017. No taking back control of the border. She has decided that the will of the people should be ignored.
Hard border in Northern Ireland = Brexit?????
Yes. How can it be brexit without control of the border?
You've had it expalined to you several times, so you're either thick, or being deliberately difficult.
Maybe I am being thick then. Lets go back as far as yesterday, the Prime Minister says the common travel area will stay with 'no infrastructure' on the Irish border, watch PMQ's if you doubt me. If that is no border control then what is it? For many brexit means taking back control of the borders, therefore if there is to be no border control how can there be brexit? Not a complicated question to pose, and there has been no explanation to me either once or several times. How is no border taking back control of a border? Perhaps you could try to explain that one.
Chill Ibiza folks Theresa May announced the end of brexit in Prime Ministers Questions on Wednesday 22nd November 2017. No taking back control of the border. She has decided that the will of the people should be ignored.
Hard border in Northern Ireland = Brexit?????
Yes. How can it be brexit without control of the border?
You've had it expalined to you several times, so you're either thick, or being deliberately difficult.
Maybe I am being thick then. Lets go back as far as yesterday, the Prime Minister says the common travel area will stay with 'no infrastructure' on the Irish border, watch PMQ's if you doubt me. If that is no border control then what is it? For many brexit means taking back control of the borders, therefore if there is to be no border control how can there be brexit? Not a complicated question to pose, and there has been no explanation to me either once or several times. How is no border taking back control of a border? Perhaps you could try to explain that one.
maybe consult a search engine instead of charlton life?.
Chill Ibiza folks Theresa May announced the end of brexit in Prime Ministers Questions on Wednesday 22nd November 2017. No taking back control of the border. She has decided that the will of the people should be ignored.
Hard border in Northern Ireland = Brexit?????
Yes. How can it be brexit without control of the border?
You've had it expalined to you several times, so you're either thick, or being deliberately difficult.
Maybe I am being thick then. Lets go back as far as yesterday, the Prime Minister says the common travel area will stay with 'no infrastructure' on the Irish border, watch PMQ's if you doubt me. If that is no border control then what is it? For many brexit means taking back control of the borders, therefore if there is to be no border control how can there be brexit? Not a complicated question to pose, and there has been no explanation to me either once or several times. How is no border taking back control of a border? Perhaps you could try to explain that one.
Yeah I've not seen it explained either, but then I am proper thick anyway.
The way I see it is that EU would be happy to push the border back to the ports, so that NI remains within SM/CU whatever, in line with the GFA. Meanwhile the rest of UK not including NI will be out which sounds like this arrangement would work for UK government.
But the DUP don't want this at all, which is a big problem as the UK government have previously heavily bribed them in order to keep themselves in power.
Chill Ibiza folks Theresa May announced the end of brexit in Prime Ministers Questions on Wednesday 22nd November 2017. No taking back control of the border. She has decided that the will of the people should be ignored.
Hard border in Northern Ireland = Brexit?????
Yes. How can it be brexit without control of the border?
You've had it expalined to you several times, so you're either thick, or being deliberately difficult.
Maybe I am being thick then. Lets go back as far as yesterday, the Prime Minister says the common travel area will stay with 'no infrastructure' on the Irish border, watch PMQ's if you doubt me. If that is no border control then what is it? For many brexit means taking back control of the borders, therefore if there is to be no border control how can there be brexit? Not a complicated question to pose, and there has been no explanation to me either once or several times. How is no border taking back control of a border? Perhaps you could try to explain that one.
maybe consult a search engine instead of charlton life?.
I think you are making the same point as I am. That forecasts are of necessiity a snapshot based on the past and that it is what we do that matters.
You really are an odd one.
You are the CEO of Unilever, which makes among other things, Flora pro-activ. Which reduces chloresterol levels.
You have in front of you a sign off document for a new factory to be built to make Flora pro-activ. Of necessity (because factories like this are not flat-pack jobs from IKEA) , when the plan was first put together, it was based on sales forecasts developed two years ago.
In those two years, the weight of medical opinion on the whole issue of animal fats and chloresterol, and effect on health has shifted. (because as you say, stuff happens) Do you:
1) Call for updated sales forecasts and resulting ROI implications for the factory, before signing off on £200 million. plus a commitment to hundreds of new workers
2. Say 'nothing ventured nothing gained" and sign off right there?
I think you are making the same point as I am. That forecasts are of necessiity a snapshot based on the past and that it is what we do that matters.
You really are an odd one.
You are the CEO of Unilever, which makes among other things, Flora pro-activ. Which reduces chloresterol levels.
You have in front of you a sign off document for a new factory to be built to make Flora pro-activ. Of necessity (because factories like this are not flat-pack jobs from IKEA) , when the plan was first put together, it was based on sales forecasts developed two years ago.
In those two years, the weight of medical opinion on the whole issue of animal fats and chloresterol, and effect on health has shifted. (because as you say, stuff happens) Do you:
1) Call for updated sales forecasts and resulting ROI implications for the factory, before signing off on £200 million. plus a commitment to hundreds of new workers
2. Say 'nothing ventured nothing gained" and sign off right there?
Trick question, spend it on buying Charlton and kicking Roland out. You'd have enough money to re-sign Yann before he retires too.
I've explained what many people meant by controlling our borders, several times, as have others.
Great Britain is an island, for your interpretation to ring true, the whole thing would need fencing off, that was clearly never going to happen.
Indeed, ergo no brexit in terms of controlling the border, it's never going to happen.
Unless people actually meant being able to fully control legal immigration, by it's very nature no country can ever stop all illegal immigration.
We have quite a large 'border' between France and Dover, plenty of people still get through.
Yes illegal immigration could much more easily happen across the Irish border compared to the pinch point at Dover, and the same issue will apply to goods. At Dover there is some form of control, at the moment in Ireland there isn't. This is the issue, if brexit means control of the borders then how does that square off against no border control in Ireland?
I don't know whether you work in business, but I start to suspect not. Anyone in a remotely senior role in business, knows that a business absolutely does forecasts, every year and often looking 5 years ahead. These business forecasts will include inputs from the economic forecasts you so deride. The business' forecasts often turn out to be wrong too.
Well you take the job of CEO at, say Unilever, and announce that you are going to stop people doing forecasting, for the same reason you deride the use of the OBR forecasts by government. You'll be getting your P45 before you have had the chance to choose your company car.
Au contraire. I do work in business and I also have to work with forecasts which have never proved to be correct, usually for reasons which only appear after the forecast has been made.
There is a good article on this in The Times today, by the way, by Iain Martin who points out that had Nigel Lawson made a 5 year forecast in 1989 he would have missed the fall of the Berlin wall, the end of communism, the first Gulf War, a recession, the creation of the world wide web and Britain's expulsion from the European exchange Rate mechanism.
People obviously need to make educated guesses about the future in order to help make decisions. But life is too chaotic for much of it to be worth anything in real life. I have learned that business can be summed up in one phrase-nothing ventured nothing gained. We need more risk takers and more confidence all round that it is right to take a chance, rather than continued doom and gloom about the future.
One of the strangest tactics of the remain campaign was when Osborne chose to announce a ten year forecast around the cost per household of Brexit. So many things might change between now and 2026 that this was ridiculed. However, the OBR has just knocked 1/3 off of GDP growth over the next five years and the government is struggling to position itself for a trade deal. Not all leave voters will be concerned for many are true believers, whatever the outcome. But a mixture of forecasts and 2018 events may cause a significant number to swing.
Forecasts are based on assumption and model parameters - as long as assumption are agreed and the model is recalibrate periodically, it will usually be more accurate than a finger in the air. And can be used to inform the decision making of which you speak.
The political reality is that shifting forecasts combined with questions around competence are enough to drive change in voter intentions. And that in turn may change behaviours in Parliament. There is an open question about what the polls will say in 6-9 months time.
What is noticeable on this thread is that people are boxing themselves and others into certain positions. For example @seth plum and @Stu_of_Kunming
The fact is that the UK is not "an island". It is in fact a group of islands including a land border with Ireland and a few tax havens to boot!
None of us know the answer as to whether May and Davis can cut a deal with Barnier before Christmas but anybody reading the Irish Times or european press believes that the chances are slim.
Let us not be naiive about this for there will be much spin if matters are not agreed before Christmas. There is a growing case for staying in the Customs Union which solves the question overnight even if that is for an interim period, i.e. kicking the can down the road!
That happens to have been my position from day 1 and is also now the official position of Labour.
The question is whether May will perform a U-turn in order to both cut a deal and stay in power?! Of course she might choose to stay with the Hard Brexit element but that isn't where she comes from and isn't where the majority sit in the UK.
I've explained what many people meant by controlling our borders, several times, as have others.
Great Britain is an island, for your interpretation to ring true, the whole thing would need fencing off, that was clearly never going to happen.
Indeed, ergo no brexit in terms of controlling the border, it's never going to happen.
Seth, Post-Brexit, if you cross into NI (and I presume ROI) without the necessary (free travel area) accreditation - you will be an illegal immigrant and could be detained/deported or both. This is control of the border. How it works in practice with sheep straying across peoples gardens and being chased into another country - I don't know.........but like all things Brexit - we will see.
But you can be happy now, because Brexit is canceled and the will of the people over-ridden. I reckon Anarchy in the UK might even get the Xmas Number One spot.
I've explained what many people meant by controlling our borders, several times, as have others.
Great Britain is an island, for your interpretation to ring true, the whole thing would need fencing off, that was clearly never going to happen.
Indeed, ergo no brexit in terms of controlling the border, it's never going to happen.
Seth, Post-Brexit, if you cross into NI (and I presume ROI) without the necessary (free travel area) accreditation - you will be an illegal immigrant and could be detained/deported or both. This is control of the border. How it works in practice with sheep straying across peoples gardens and being chased into another country - I don't know.........but like all things Brexit - we will see.
But you can be happy now, because Brexit is canceled and the will of the people over-ridden. I reckon Anarchy in the UK might even get the Xmas Number One spot.
What you describe as 'post-brexit' is what the UK has now, pre-brexit.
Not quite, because only the people of ROI have access to the "free travel" area, so our old friend Yann is going to have to get a passport stamp or a visa......or chance-it !
The eurozone’s “booming” economy powered ahead in November with jobs growth and new manufacturing orders reaching 17-year highs as a stronger currency did little to dampen robust foreign demand for the region’s exports.
According to the eurozone purchasing managers’ index, compiled by IHS Markit, the region’s businesses enjoyed their best monthly performance in six and half years. All main indicators of output, demand, employment and inflation were at multiyear highs, pointing to an economy now firing on all cylinders.
The data, released on Thursday, reinforced the view that the strength of the eurozone economy would continue into new year. The PMI surveys are viewed as reliable indicators of economic growth and the latest data point to a further pick-up in GDP growth after a strong third quarter. UniCredit said the latest figures suggested growth at an annualised 3 per cent in the fourth quarter.
Chris Williamson, IHS Markit chief business economist, said: “The message from the latest eurozone PMI is clear: business is booming.”
Outside the Eurozone, but inside the Single Market...Romania showed annualised GDP growth in the 3rd quarter of 8.8% !!
And if you think that's a fluke I can tell you that it's booming right here in Cesko too, 3rd qtr growth at 5% outpacing all analysts forecasts. National unemployment is 2.9%, which means in effect there is a labour shortage. Every other shop window in Prague has a notice seeking checkout people, cooks, waiters. My biz ought to be booming too, but it isn't because there simply are not any people to hire.
And these two countries cast an interesting light on the immigration debate. At that growth rate, Romania needs labour, urgently. Where will it find it? Why, from the Romanian diaspora of course, mainly the ones in the UK. The stupid thing is, this is how it was always meant to be with these countries. EU funds would lift them but in the short term many would try their luck abroad; but they would eventually return to more stable prosperous countries. You didn't need any Brexit for that process to happen, you gormless mugs!
The Czech Republic has a bigger problem. Where will it get the labour from? Hardly any Czechs left in the first place. No Bulgarians or Romanians see anything here for them. Anyway, hardly any migrants from anywhere speak Czech. This the other UK tragedy. When it needs labour it can suck in migrants from wherever as many have English as a second language. But the ones most likely to assimilate are surely those from our nearest neighbours. We have told them we don't want them anymore. So who is going to fill the vacancies, with UK unemployment also below the key 5% level that provides labour liquidity?
I've explained what many people meant by controlling our borders, several times, as have others.
Great Britain is an island, for your interpretation to ring true, the whole thing would need fencing off, that was clearly never going to happen.
Indeed, ergo no brexit in terms of controlling the border, it's never going to happen.
Seth, Post-Brexit, if you cross into NI (and I presume ROI) without the necessary (free travel area) accreditation - you will be an illegal immigrant and could be detained/deported or both. This is control of the border. How it works in practice with sheep straying across peoples gardens and being chased into another country - I don't know.........but like all things Brexit - we will see.
But you can be happy now, because Brexit is canceled and the will of the people over-ridden. I reckon Anarchy in the UK might even get the Xmas Number One spot.
This is more detail than I have seen from the government.
Who announced this? What is the necessary accreditation, who will check it and where will they check it?
Not quite, because only the people of ROI have access to the "free travel" area, so our old friend Yann is going to have to get a passport stamp or a visa......or chance-it !
Unless Yann becomes an illegal by entering the UK without the paperwork via the Republic of Ireland, as there is free movement of people from the EU into the Republic.
In what i think you're saying, there has to be checks somewhere, maybe it will be in the workplace, or maybe the UK border force will flood Chipping Norton or whatever demanding to know everybody's status. However that will have to be paid for.
If we are only talking about people not goods, then a French person in the UK could arrive via the ROI after brexit and melt into the established French or other communities that were here before brexit pretty easily.
This is not even talking about goods. I wrote ages ago a container of phones would have about 60,000 of them. If the UK wanted to impose a tariff of £20 per phone to prevent a Finnish phone coming in and to protect the new Dyson Wonderphone, then one single containerload could evade £1,200,000 in tariff to the UK government. If it was airfreighted then one 747 air freighter can carry 350,000 phones (source https://www.flexport.com/blog/how-many-iphones-can-fit-in-a-747/ ). Land one in the ROI, pick somewhere along the 400km of UK border to cross, and bam! by my reckoning that is £7million of tariffs by-passed in one go.
So one way or another a common travel area between the EU and the UK is not going to be controlling the border.
I suppose 'enforcement' could be boosted at some kind of cost for people and goods, and the border would exist in every town city and village and retail outlet. I suppose I could be expected to carry a smart ID card to satisfy the authorities when they spot check, we could welcome in a nouveaux police state to ensure sovereignty.
There are probably loads of other unforeseen consequences of the practical aspects of border/no border.
Anyway the PM said there would be no border, so there will be people even now looking to take future advantage of a way around UK regulations when brexit happens with no border controls.
Not quite, because only the people of ROI have access to the "free travel" area, so our old friend Yann is going to have to get a passport stamp or a visa......or chance-it !
Unless Yann becomes an illegal by entering the UK without the paperwork via the Republic of Ireland, as there is free movement of people from the EU into the Republic.
In what i think you're saying, there has to be checks somewhere, maybe it will be in the workplace, or maybe the UK border force will flood Chipping Norton or whatever demanding to know everybody's status. However that will have to be paid for.
If we are only talking about people not goods, then a French person in the UK could arrive via the ROI after brexit and melt into the established French or other communities that were here before brexit pretty easily.
This is not even talking about goods. I wrote ages ago a container of phones would have about 60,000 of them. If the UK wanted to impose a tariff of £20 per phone to prevent a Finnish phone coming in and to protect the new Dyson Wonderphone, then one single containerload could evade £1,200,000 in tariff to the UK government. If it was airfreighted then one 747 air freighter can carry 350,000 phones (source https://www.flexport.com/blog/how-many-iphones-can-fit-in-a-747/ ). Land one in the ROI, pick somewhere along the 400km of UK border to cross, and bam! by my reckoning that is £7million of tariffs by-passed in one go.
So one way or another a common travel area between the EU and the UK is not going to be controlling the border.
I suppose 'enforcement' could be boosted at some kind of cost for people and goods, and the border would exist in every town city and village and retail outlet. I suppose I could be expected to carry a smart ID card to satisfy the authorities when they spot check, we could welcome in a nouveaux police state to ensure sovereignty.
There are probably loads of other unforeseen consequences of the practical aspects of border/no border.
Anyway the PM said there would be no border, so there will be people even now looking to take future advantage of a way around UK regulations when brexit happens with no border controls.
Based on the above, it looks like we will have to cancel the common travel area for folk and cause hardship. On the flip side, I'm looking forward to popping across and loading up with cheaper fags and booze - er.... or are they more expensive in ROI ?
Whose she.... Its funny as on lbc last week a professor of economics said quite the opposite.
Also on Ian dale show last week when talking to an irish minister currently working in their prime ministers government, agreed that ireland exported 50% of its agriculture to the uk.. And 60-70% of its other goods. This came about as their jumped up litle pm was going to veto against us in the up and coming meetings.
Then comes on this Doctor of irish EU economics and said they export 13% to the uk for agricultural and more to the USA...
The formers figures were backed up by the independent prior to the brexit vote, who got rheir figures from errr the irish government.
The figure for 60-70% of Irish exported goods going to the UK would, I might suggest, include goods in transit. While the impact on the Irish economy is more significant for agricultural products, especially beef and milk, the UK is nowhere near as important to the Irish economy as it once was (a far greater proportion of Irish business relies on the rest of the EU).
Jumped up or otherwise, the Taoiseach is doing his best to represent Irish interests, even if that means voting against entering into future relationship discussions. He seems, at the moment, to be doing a better job of gaining necessary support from the EU than his counterpart.
I dont really care about % s on either side of the camp.. Or twitter comments by pratts who dont matter and who have not got the foggiest. My point we can sit all day and post ridicculous links by people no-ones heard off to back their narrow view... By the way where is link man, is he on holiday.
Sssssshhhhhhh!!!!!!!!
A superhero alter ego only works if people don't know who you really are.
Whose she.... Its funny as on lbc last week a professor of economics said quite the opposite.
Also on Ian dale show last week when talking to an irish minister currently working in their prime ministers government, agreed that ireland exported 50% of its agriculture to the uk.. And 60-70% of its other goods. This came about as their jumped up litle pm was going to veto against us in the up and coming meetings.
Then comes on this Doctor of irish EU economics and said they export 13% to the uk for agricultural and more to the USA...
The formers figures were backed up by the independent prior to the brexit vote, who got rheir figures from errr the irish government.
The figure for 60-70% of Irish exported goods going to the UK would, I might suggest, include goods in transit. While the impact on the Irish economy is more significant for agricultural products, especially beef and milk, the UK is nowhere near as important to the Irish economy as it once was (a far greater proportion of Irish business relies on the rest of the EU).
Jumped up or otherwise, the Taoiseach is doing his best to represent Irish interests, even if that means voting against entering into future relationship discussions. He seems, at the moment, to be doing a better job of gaining necessary support from the EU than his counterpart.
I dont really care about % s on either side of the camp.. Or twitter comments by pratts who dont matter and who have not got the foggiest. My point we can sit all day and post ridicculous links by people no-ones heard off to back their narrow view... By the way where is link man, is he on holiday.
Are you genuinely, honestly, saying that Stephanie Flanders "hasn't got the foggiest"?
Whose she.... Its funny as on lbc last week a professor of economics said quite the opposite.
Also on Ian dale show last week when talking to an irish minister currently working in their prime ministers government, agreed that ireland exported 50% of its agriculture to the uk.. And 60-70% of its other goods. This came about as their jumped up litle pm was going to veto against us in the up and coming meetings.
Then comes on this Doctor of irish EU economics and said they export 13% to the uk for agricultural and more to the USA...
The formers figures were backed up by the independent prior to the brexit vote, who got rheir figures from errr the irish government.
The figure for 60-70% of Irish exported goods going to the UK would, I might suggest, include goods in transit. While the impact on the Irish economy is more significant for agricultural products, especially beef and milk, the UK is nowhere near as important to the Irish economy as it once was (a far greater proportion of Irish business relies on the rest of the EU).
Jumped up or otherwise, the Taoiseach is doing his best to represent Irish interests, even if that means voting against entering into future relationship discussions. He seems, at the moment, to be doing a better job of gaining necessary support from the EU than his counterpart.
I dont really care about % s on either side of the camp.. Or twitter comments by pratts who dont matter and who have not got the foggiest. My point we can sit all day and post ridicculous links by people no-ones heard off to back their narrow view... By the way where is link man, is he on holiday.
If you're referring to Stephanie Flanders as being a pratt no one's heard of who hasn't got a clue you really aren't doing yourself any favours. But I expect you've Googled her for yourself by now.
I do not google anything... I do not need too... Sadly most of the people here do.
Every single day that passes more and more evidence is amassed from every possible source both domestic and overseas that the U.K. is heading for the rocks, yet still the response to the serious issues posed is pathetic.
The eurozone’s “booming” economy powered ahead in November with jobs growth and new manufacturing orders reaching 17-year highs as a stronger currency did little to dampen robust foreign demand for the region’s exports.
According to the eurozone purchasing managers’ index, compiled by IHS Markit, the region’s businesses enjoyed their best monthly performance in six and half years. All main indicators of output, demand, employment and inflation were at multiyear highs, pointing to an economy now firing on all cylinders.
The data, released on Thursday, reinforced the view that the strength of the eurozone economy would continue into new year. The PMI surveys are viewed as reliable indicators of economic growth and the latest data point to a further pick-up in GDP growth after a strong third quarter. UniCredit said the latest figures suggested growth at an annualised 3 per cent in the fourth quarter.
Chris Williamson, IHS Markit chief business economist, said: “The message from the latest eurozone PMI is clear: business is booming.”
I am glad that the eurozone economies are doing well and I am sure you are equally glad we have more people in work than ever before.
Comments
There is a good article on this in The Times today, by the way, by Iain Martin who points out that had Nigel Lawson made a 5 year forecast in 1989 he would have missed the fall of the Berlin wall, the end of communism, the first Gulf War, a recession, the creation of the world wide web and Britain's expulsion from the European exchange Rate mechanism.
People obviously need to make educated guesses about the future in order to help make decisions. But life is too chaotic for much of it to be worth anything in real life. I have learned that business can be summed up in one phrase-nothing ventured nothing gained. We need more risk takers and more confidence all round that it is right to take a chance, rather than continued doom and gloom about the future.
You also seem to rail against all forecasts, not just the ones the OBR has produced in its short lifespan. This is a ludicrous position. Have you got any evidence that all forecasts are bunk? Of course not. If your business's forecasts are crap then your business has a problem, not the methodology.
Lets go back as far as yesterday, the Prime Minister says the common travel area will stay with 'no infrastructure' on the Irish border, watch PMQ's if you doubt me.
If that is no border control then what is it?
For many brexit means taking back control of the borders, therefore if there is to be no border control how can there be brexit?
Not a complicated question to pose, and there has been no explanation to me either once or several times.
How is no border taking back control of a border?
Perhaps you could try to explain that one.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/21/uk-confident-that-irish-border-will-not-stop-progress-of-brexit-talks
Great Britain is an island, for your interpretation to ring true, the whole thing would need fencing off, that was clearly never going to happen.
The way I see it is that EU would be happy to push the border back to the ports, so that NI remains within SM/CU whatever, in line with the GFA. Meanwhile the rest of UK not including NI will be out which sounds like this arrangement would work for UK government.
But the DUP don't want this at all, which is a big problem as the UK government have previously heavily bribed them in order to keep themselves in power.
We have quite a large 'border' between France and Dover, plenty of people still get through.
You are the CEO of Unilever, which makes among other things, Flora pro-activ. Which reduces chloresterol levels.
You have in front of you a sign off document for a new factory to be built to make Flora pro-activ. Of necessity (because factories like this are not flat-pack jobs from IKEA) , when the plan was first put together, it was based on sales forecasts developed two years ago.
In those two years, the weight of medical opinion on the whole issue of animal fats and chloresterol, and effect on health has shifted. (because as you say, stuff happens) Do you:
1) Call for updated sales forecasts and resulting ROI implications for the factory, before signing off on £200 million. plus a commitment to hundreds of new workers
2. Say 'nothing ventured nothing gained" and sign off right there?
At Dover there is some form of control, at the moment in Ireland there isn't.
This is the issue, if brexit means control of the borders then how does that square off against no border control in Ireland?
However, the OBR has just knocked 1/3 off of GDP growth over the next five years and the government is struggling to position itself for a trade deal. Not all leave voters will be concerned for many are true believers, whatever the outcome. But a mixture of forecasts and 2018 events may cause a significant number to swing.
Forecasts are based on assumption and model parameters - as long as assumption are agreed and the model is recalibrate periodically, it will usually be more accurate than a finger in the air. And can be used to inform the decision making of which you speak.
The political reality is that shifting forecasts combined with questions around competence are enough to drive change in voter intentions. And that in turn may change behaviours in Parliament. There is an open question about what the polls will say in 6-9 months time.
What is noticeable on this thread is that people are boxing themselves and others into certain positions. For example @seth plum and @Stu_of_Kunming
The fact is that the UK is not "an island". It is in fact a group of islands including a land border with Ireland and a few tax havens to boot!
None of us know the answer as to whether May and Davis can cut a deal with Barnier before Christmas but anybody reading the Irish Times or european press believes that the chances are slim.
Let us not be naiive about this for there will be much spin if matters are not agreed before Christmas. There is a growing case for staying in the Customs Union which solves the question overnight even if that is for an interim period, i.e. kicking the can down the road!
That happens to have been my position from day 1 and is also now the official position of Labour.
The question is whether May will perform a U-turn in order to both cut a deal and stay in power?! Of course she might choose to stay with the Hard Brexit element but that isn't where she comes from and isn't where the majority sit in the UK.
Time will tell.
Post-Brexit, if you cross into NI (and I presume ROI) without the necessary (free travel area) accreditation - you will be an illegal immigrant and could be detained/deported or both. This is control of the border.
How it works in practice with sheep straying across peoples gardens and being chased into another country - I don't know.........but like all things Brexit - we will see.
But you can be happy now, because Brexit is canceled and the will of the people over-ridden. I reckon Anarchy in the UK might even get the Xmas Number One spot.
"Eurozone economy powers ahead despite currency strength"
The eurozone’s “booming” economy powered ahead in November with jobs growth and new manufacturing orders reaching 17-year highs as a stronger currency did little to dampen robust foreign demand for the region’s exports.
According to the eurozone purchasing managers’ index, compiled by IHS Markit, the region’s businesses enjoyed their best monthly performance in six and half years. All main indicators of output, demand, employment and inflation were at multiyear highs, pointing to an economy now firing on all cylinders.
The data, released on Thursday, reinforced the view that the strength of the eurozone economy would continue into new year. The PMI surveys are viewed as reliable indicators of economic growth and the latest data point to a further pick-up in GDP growth after a strong third quarter. UniCredit said the latest figures suggested growth at an annualised 3 per cent in the fourth quarter.
Chris Williamson, IHS Markit chief business economist, said: “The message from the latest eurozone PMI is clear: business is booming.”
Outside the Eurozone, but inside the Single Market...Romania showed annualised GDP growth in the 3rd quarter of 8.8% !!
And if you think that's a fluke I can tell you that it's booming right here in Cesko too, 3rd qtr growth at 5% outpacing all analysts forecasts. National unemployment is 2.9%, which means in effect there is a labour shortage. Every other shop window in Prague has a notice seeking checkout people, cooks, waiters. My biz ought to be booming too, but it isn't because there simply are not any people to hire.
And these two countries cast an interesting light on the immigration debate. At that growth rate, Romania needs labour, urgently. Where will it find it? Why, from the Romanian diaspora of course, mainly the ones in the UK. The stupid thing is, this is how it was always meant to be with these countries. EU funds would lift them but in the short term many would try their luck abroad; but they would eventually return to more stable prosperous countries. You didn't need any Brexit for that process to happen, you gormless mugs!
The Czech Republic has a bigger problem. Where will it get the labour from? Hardly any Czechs left in the first place. No Bulgarians or Romanians see anything here for them. Anyway, hardly any migrants from anywhere speak Czech. This the other UK tragedy. When it needs labour it can suck in migrants from wherever as many have English as a second language. But the ones most likely to assimilate are surely those from our nearest neighbours. We have told them we don't want them anymore. So who is going to fill the vacancies, with UK unemployment also below the key 5% level that provides labour liquidity?
Who announced this? What is the necessary accreditation, who will check it and where will they check it?
In what i think you're saying, there has to be checks somewhere, maybe it will be in the workplace, or maybe the UK border force will flood Chipping Norton or whatever demanding to know everybody's status. However that will have to be paid for.
If we are only talking about people not goods, then a French person in the UK could arrive via the ROI after brexit and melt into the established French or other communities that were here before brexit pretty easily.
This is not even talking about goods. I wrote ages ago a container of phones would have about 60,000 of them. If the UK wanted to impose a tariff of £20 per phone to prevent a Finnish phone coming in and to protect the new Dyson Wonderphone, then one single containerload could evade £1,200,000 in tariff to the UK government. If it was airfreighted then one 747 air freighter can carry 350,000 phones (source https://www.flexport.com/blog/how-many-iphones-can-fit-in-a-747/ ). Land one in the ROI, pick somewhere along the 400km of UK border to cross, and bam! by my reckoning that is £7million of tariffs by-passed in one go.
So one way or another a common travel area between the EU and the UK is not going to be controlling the border.
I suppose 'enforcement' could be boosted at some kind of cost for people and goods, and the border would exist in every town city and village and retail outlet. I suppose I could be expected to carry a smart ID card to satisfy the authorities when they spot check, we could welcome in a nouveaux police state to ensure sovereignty.
There are probably loads of other unforeseen consequences of the practical aspects of border/no border.
Anyway the PM said there would be no border, so there will be people even now looking to take future advantage of a way around UK regulations when brexit happens with no border controls.
On the flip side, I'm looking forward to popping across and loading up with cheaper fags and booze - er.... or are they more expensive in ROI ?
Every single day that passes more and more evidence is amassed from every possible source both domestic and overseas that the U.K. is heading for the rocks, yet still the response to the serious issues posed is pathetic.