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The influence of the EU on Britain.

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  • Chizz said:

    seth plum said:

    not been reading this thread for months as it was too anti brexit & too much point scoring....however, I will say one thing & I expect to get lambasted for it.

    There should be & needs to be a border between NI & ROI. The Peace Agreement should not & can not have anything to do with the UK leaving the EU. End of.....

    runs & hides

    What a out the Belfast Agreement. How does it square with your aspiration?
    sorry....I call it the Peace Agreement because thats what it is basically....

    It states that NI is part of the UK & was recognised by the south as such. Therefore when the UK (inc NI) leaves the EU (which include ROI) there should be a border between the 2 "states". That could be a border crossing or a wall.....I don't really care. But there needs to be some distinction between the 2.Just because Sinn Fein (IRA) don't want it isn't a good enough excuse. All the UK politicians say they don't want it either, but that is because they haven't the balls to say different. I don't particularly like the DUP but at least they stick to their guns (no pun intended) & don't pander to anyone.
    It's interesting that you bring this up. Obviously you're aware that you might get lambasted for it; I'm not going to do so, because that's both a very obvious thing to do and unhelpful for a healthy debate.

    But, I will point out the struggle I have that some people are so desperate to leave an organisation that has helped to ensure peace across a previously violent group of countries that they're happy to rip up an agreement that has delivered peace in the British Isles. It seems a very backward priority.
    The irony is that the DUP position is part of the problem. They are very strongly of the view that they don't want a hard border. but they also don't want a different border to the rest of the UK. That is understandable because it could fuel a perception that they are not really British! If they were flexible, a solution to the border could easily have been fudged.

    Of course, both the DUP and Sinn Fein understand that the open border brings wealth to both north and south! The DUP don't want to be seen as being responsible for hurting that!
  • seth plum said:

    not been reading this thread for months as it was too anti brexit & too much point scoring....however, I will say one thing & I expect to get lambasted for it.

    There should be & needs to be a border between NI & ROI. The Peace Agreement should not & can not have anything to do with the UK leaving the EU. End of.....

    runs & hides

    What a out the Belfast Agreement. How does it square with your aspiration?
    sorry....I call it the Peace Agreement because thats what it is basically....

    It states that NI is part of the UK & was recognised by the south as such. Therefore when the UK (inc NI) leaves the EU (which include ROI) there should be a border between the 2 "states". That could be a border crossing or a wall.....I don't really care. But there needs to be some distinction between the 2.Just because Sinn Fein (IRA) don't want it isn't a good enough excuse. All the UK politicians say they don't want it either, but that is because they haven't the balls to say different. I don't particularly like the DUP but at least they stick to their guns (no pun intended) & don't pander to anyone.
    "Don't pander to anyone?". Except God I suppose.
  • Looks like those who said Davis won't have the bottle to resign and find himself on the back benches (i.e. back in obscurity) were on the money...
  • Chizz said:

    seth plum said:

    not been reading this thread for months as it was too anti brexit & too much point scoring....however, I will say one thing & I expect to get lambasted for it.

    There should be & needs to be a border between NI & ROI. The Peace Agreement should not & can not have anything to do with the UK leaving the EU. End of.....

    runs & hides

    What a out the Belfast Agreement. How does it square with your aspiration?
    sorry....I call it the Peace Agreement because thats what it is basically....

    It states that NI is part of the UK & was recognised by the south as such. Therefore when the UK (inc NI) leaves the EU (which include ROI) there should be a border between the 2 "states". That could be a border crossing or a wall.....I don't really care. But there needs to be some distinction between the 2.Just because Sinn Fein (IRA) don't want it isn't a good enough excuse. All the UK politicians say they don't want it either, but that is because they haven't the balls to say different. I don't particularly like the DUP but at least they stick to their guns (no pun intended) & don't pander to anyone.
    It's interesting that you bring this up. Obviously you're aware that you might get lambasted for it; I'm not going to do so, because that's both a very obvious thing to do and unhelpful for a healthy debate.

    But, I will point out the struggle I have that some people are so desperate to leave an organisation that has helped to ensure peace across a previously violent group of countries that they're happy to rip up an agreement that has delivered peace in the British Isles. It seems a very backward priority.
    The irony is that the DUP position is part of the problem. They are very strongly of the view that they don't want a hard border. but they also don't want a different border to the rest of the UK. That is understandable because it could fuel a perception that they are not really British! If they were flexible, a solution to the border could easily have been fudged.

    Of course, both the DUP and Sinn Fein understand that the open border brings wealth to both north and south! The DUP don't want to be seen as being responsible for hurting that!
    I thought the DUP didn't care too much whether there was a border between RI & NI but were adamant that there shouldn't be a boreder between NI and the rest of the UK as there should be no "regulatory divergence" between NI and the rest of the Union (unless we're talking about civil rights).
  • edited June 2018
    That may be the case with some of their representatives, but their voters do not want a hard border and they are sensitive that! For reasons of simple prosperity! It is complicated because they would rather have a hard border if the UK has one with the EU because they are part of Britain!
  • That may be the case with some of their representatives, but their voters do not want a hard border and they are sensitive that! For reasons of simple prosperity! It is complicated because they would rather have a hard border if the UK has one with the EU because they are part of Britain!

    Exactly so it's of greater importance to the DUP that there is no border between NI and Great Britain than between NI and the RoI.

    I think your possibly mistaking the wish of the DUPs voters who would probably agree with the DUPs position on the order of priority around where the border should fall and the majority of people in Northern Ireland (who the DUP don't represent) who see that having no border between NI and the EU and UK is very important, that's why the majority of people in NI voted to remain in the EU whilst the DUP actually campaigned for Brexit.
  • Yes, I didn't say otherwise. I was illustrating the complexity there. You are possibly mistaking that!
  • Yes, I didn't say otherwise. I was illustrating the complexity there. You are possibly mistaking that!

    You literally said that DUP "voters don't want a hard border" - I'm not sure that's entirely true.
  • The DUP are of course completely opposed to a United Ireland. A return to a hard border between the ROI and NI would be perfect for them even taking into account the disruption and cost. Anything that puts back the spectre of a United Ireland.
  • https://bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44391539

    May's CU backstop now "time limited" until a full 5 years after the referendum.

    Doesn't even attempt to address the other issues around borders, like regulatory alignment, etc. of course but has kicked the can down the road a little and kept May in her job for a little longer.
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  • The customs union backstop stays in place until and unless a customs solutions is agreed by the UK and the EU, but now has an "expected" end date of December 2021.

    So, here's a question for Quitters to answer: if the backstop is still in place in December 2021, that will mean that there is no working solution. So what happens on 1 January 2022?
  • Chizz said:

    The customs union backstop stays in place until and unless a customs solutions is agreed by the UK and the EU, but now has an "expected" end date of December 2021.

    So, here's a question for Quitters to answer: if the backstop is still in place in December 2021, that will mean that there is no working solution. So what happens on 1 January 2022?

    Precisely......reason why no deal is better than a bad deal. Just leave. if we are going to fall off the edge of a cliff better doing in now rather than in Jan 2022.
  • edited June 2018

    https://bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44391539

    May's CU backstop now "time limited" until a full 5 years after the referendum.

    Doesn't even attempt to address the other issues around borders, like regulatory alignment, etc. of course but has kicked the can down the road a little and kept May in her job for a little longer.

    Yep, clung on to government whilst slowing screwing the UK economy with the threat of leaving and uncertainty about when and how, whilst not being brave enough to tell the wide-eyes loons in her own party that Brexit won't work and can't be done. So she does nothing (because it can't be done), whilst pretending that it is definitely still going to happen at some stage (thus damaging the country). Useless in every possible way.

    Whilst we still get idiots in HMG saying we can't do trade deals whilst in the EU, at the same time as there are regular headlines about the massive deals the French and Germans are doing without having to leave the EU. The only deals we can't do whilst in the EU are ones were we try to import shoddy goods, or export the same. We're free to import chickens from anywhere in the world as long as they meet EU health and safety guidelines (that we helped write). But, oh no, we need to leave, so we can import chlorinated chicken from the US, because we want that shitty deal so badly apparently.
  • Chizz said:

    The customs union backstop stays in place until and unless a customs solutions is agreed by the UK and the EU, but now has an "expected" end date of December 2021.

    So, here's a question for Quitters to answer: if the backstop is still in place in December 2021, that will mean that there is no working solution. So what happens on 1 January 2022?

    Precisely......reason why no deal is better than a bad deal. Just leave. if we are going to fall off the edge of a cliff better doing in now rather than in Jan 2022.
    OK. So, what does the border in Ireland look like, if we were to crash out on a no-deal basis?
  • se9addick said:

    Yes, I didn't say otherwise. I was illustrating the complexity there. You are possibly mistaking that!

    You literally said that DUP "voters don't want a hard border" - I'm not sure that's entirely true.
    Yes I did say that. It illustrates what a mess this all is because what I said is true.

    They want:

    frictionless border with the Irish Republic; assisting those working or travelling in the other jurisdiction
    Northern Ireland established as a hub for trade from the Irish Republic into the broader UK market
    comprehensive free trade and customs agreement with the EU
    arrangements to facilitate ease of movement of people, goods and services.

    So basically they want a free trade deal, which means no checks, no tariffs on goods and to become the hub of Republics goods into the UK, this would be smart and generate jobs etc.

    But you are right, other things they want contradict this, so no wonder we are all confused about it!!!!
  • se9addick said:

    Yes, I didn't say otherwise. I was illustrating the complexity there. You are possibly mistaking that!

    You literally said that DUP "voters don't want a hard border" - I'm not sure that's entirely true.
    Yes I did say that. It illustrates what a mess this all is because what I said is true.

    They want:

    frictionless border with the Irish Republic; assisting those working or travelling in the other jurisdiction
    Northern Ireland established as a hub for trade from the Irish Republic into the broader UK market
    comprehensive free trade and customs agreement with the EU
    arrangements to facilitate ease of movement of people, goods and services.

    So basically they want a free trade deal, which means no checks, no tariffs on goods and to become the hub of Republics goods into the UK, this would be smart and generate jobs etc.

    But you are right, other things they want contradict this, so no wonder we are all confused about it!!!!
    We already have all the things they want!

    Agree, it's a complete dogs dinner, today's kicking the can down the road just makes it even worse.
  • Well it makes total sense to kick something down the road if where it is now is a complete dog's dinner. The question is when isn't it going to be a dog's dinner? How can it not be when you have two completely different sides you have to keep happy whilst negotiating with the EU. It is quite simply beyond ridiculous!
  • Chizz said:

    Chizz said:

    The customs union backstop stays in place until and unless a customs solutions is agreed by the UK and the EU, but now has an "expected" end date of December 2021.

    So, here's a question for Quitters to answer: if the backstop is still in place in December 2021, that will mean that there is no working solution. So what happens on 1 January 2022?

    Precisely......reason why no deal is better than a bad deal. Just leave. if we are going to fall off the edge of a cliff better doing in now rather than in Jan 2022.
    OK. So, what does the border in Ireland look like, if we were to crash out on a no-deal basis?
    On reflection @golfaddick that was unfair of me to ask. Because, of course, there is no solution that works. In a no-deal scenario, we have to build and police a hard border. And, even if there was political will to do that (which there isn't, of course, for very good reasons), we do not have the time to do this.

    So, unless we can agree a deal that works (which seems a vanishingly minuscule possibility) the fall-back option can only be to remain a full and permanent member of the EU.
  • edited June 2018

    Well it makes total sense to kick something down the road if where it is now is a complete dog's dinner. The question is when isn't it going to be a dog's dinner? How can it not be when you have two completely different sides you have to keep happy whilst negotiating with the EU. It is quite simply beyond ridiculous!

    It's a dogs dinner because we're kicking the can down the road.

    Extending the amount of time that the UK is left in a weird half in half out purgatory will continue to undermine our economy.

    I actually think that there's a lot to be said for @golfaddick 's "let's just leave now with no deal" comment. We cannot even agree on what we want so how can we expect the EU to negotiate on it?
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  • Chizz said:

    The customs union backstop stays in place until and unless a customs solutions is agreed by the UK and the EU, but now has an "expected" end date of December 2021.

    So, here's a question for Quitters to answer: if the backstop is still in place in December 2021, that will mean that there is no working solution. So what happens on 1 January 2022?

    Precisely......reason why no deal is better than a bad deal. Just leave. if we are going to fall off the edge of a cliff better doing in now rather than in Jan 2022.
    Better not to fall off a cliff at all, surely? Unless you are a complete idiot?
    Ahhh…
  • se9addick said:

    Well it makes total sense to kick something down the road if where it is now is a complete dog's dinner. The question is when isn't it going to be a dog's dinner? How can it not be when you have two completely different sides you have to keep happy whilst negotiating with the EU. It is quite simply beyond ridiculous!

    It's a dogs dinner because we're kicking the can down the road.

    Extending the amount of time that the UK is left in a weird half in half out purgatory will continue to undermine our economy.

    I actually think that there's a lot to be said for @golfaddick 's "let's just leave now with no deal" comment. We cannot even agree on what we want so how can we expect the EU to negotiate on it?
    There's the crux, if anybody in the Tories believed that leaving now could be successful then it would happen. The fact that they haven't shows that they believe the only way they can stay in power is to keep kicking it down the road. They got into power with a lot of Pro-Brexit votes, so they can't abandon Brexit, but if we actually leave they will get blamed for the fall out. That's why we're left in this limbo, too much of their support will hate them if we don't leave, and everybody will hate them when we do.
  • se9addick said:

    Well it makes total sense to kick something down the road if where it is now is a complete dog's dinner. The question is when isn't it going to be a dog's dinner? How can it not be when you have two completely different sides you have to keep happy whilst negotiating with the EU. It is quite simply beyond ridiculous!

    It's a dogs dinner because we're kicking the can down the road.

    Extending the amount of time that the UK is left in a weird half in half out purgatory will continue to undermine our economy.

    I actually think that there's a lot to be said for @golfaddick 's "let's just leave now with no deal" comment. We cannot even agree on what we want so how can we expect the EU to negotiate on it?
    Maybe Golf should run for leader of the Conservatives then.
  • If the DUP want a hard border, then perhaps it could be as the map shows where their MPs are.
  • ''Henry Smith 7 Jun 2018 8:20PM''
    I feel sorry for Remainers - if only that woman - you know the one who’s name cannot be mentioned - had not forced a vote on Aticle 50 and embedded the whole thing in law then maybe we could have just done a volte face and gone back to the nice comfy pre-Brexit status quo - but now well the only legal route is to reapply for EU membership and the EU have been quite clear that this means accepting the Euro, Shengen open borders, no rebate, being part of the pending Italian bailout accepting our quota of Merkel migrants - somehow I don’t think too many Brits are going to vote for that once it becomes clear!
  • There are now at least 50% of the British population that would now vote for scrapping Brexit. Labour should be ashamed that they as the only opposition to this government are not offering that alternative to the electorate. Instead Corbyn is creeping around the most important issue this country has faced in a generation playing party politics looking to snide his way into office.

    His latest offering has split the PLP and I hope those that oppose him have the bollox to stand up to his three line whip. The man is a national menace.

    It would be interesting if you can share that poll - last numbers I saw talked of a three way split between no Brexit, soft brexit and leave everything.

    Reducing growth, a slowdown in net immigration plus the pathetic "negotiations" by May and co. were always likely to impact the polls. Especially now that we approach major deadlines.

    And still Davis insists there should be a deadline on the Irish backstop! Which part of leaving N.Ireland with no visible land border forever does he not understand?

    In principle we might agree that either binning Brexit or staying in the SM/CU is a good outcome. But what Parliamentary manoeuvres will bring this about? Nothing has happened of late to change my view that the fight for staying in the SM should start next April. For if it starts now it will be (and has been) perceived as anti-democratic.

    Once the country agrees to stay in the SM it's only a lightbulb moment from staying in the EU. Many might desire that outcome but it just doesn't appear likely to happen.

    Of course that view might be wrong or the polls might swing? But if Labour suddenly flip flops by choosing to fight Brexit and then loses it will be finished. That course of action which you pine for appears to be a massive bear trap with the Brexit media having a field day. First Corbyn will be painted as undemocratic and second he will be blamed for the complete and absolute failure of Brexit discussions.

    Many have noted that the Tories are in disarray, unable to offer up anything that the EU27 will consider. The deadline is around October followed by Brexit next March.

    Labour can swing to the SM option next April long before a transition period ends. Or simply keep going with Customs Union plus alignment. Whether they will shift or not is unclear but if the economy stops growing then people will consider alternatives to this government.

    Is that realpolitik? Possibly... Ultimately there are far more important issues such as housing, the NHS, transport, education and aneamic growth. And to deal with those Labour has to defeat the Alt-right, preferably by splitting the Tories. That is the key which will unlock a radical social democratic agenda. And if the country needs to feel some pain so as to shift 5% of the vote then so be it.

    Not asking you to agree but simply to recognise that come next April 60-70% of the country will all be on the same side - wanting to remain in the Customs Union and Single Market. The blue party will be the one who will have taken us out of the EU and if the economy tanks they take the blame.

    Plenty of people are dubious about the Corbyn McDonnell agenda and in a year or two there will be three options. They either win, make way or the time for a new centrist third way option arrives.

    We can all sense your frustration and you are not alone for around one third of the electorate are ardent remainers. It just happens that another third do not want to leave the "common market" and have no time for Fox, Johnson and the rest.

  • There are now at least 50% of the British population that would now vote for scrapping Brexit. Labour should be ashamed that they as the only opposition to this government are not offering that alternative to the electorate. Instead Corbyn is creeping around the most important issue this country has faced in a generation playing party politics looking to snide his way into office.

    His latest offering has split the PLP and I hope those that oppose him have the bollox to stand up to his three line whip. The man is a national menace.

    It would be interesting if you can share that poll - last numbers I saw talked of a three way split between no Brexit, soft brexit and leave everything.

    Reducing growth, a slowdown in net immigration plus the pathetic "negotiations" by May and co. were always likely to impact the polls. Especially now that we approach major deadlines.

    And still Davis insists there should be a deadline on the Irish backstop! Which part of leaving N.Ireland with no visible land border forever does he not understand?

    In principle we might agree that either binning Brexit or staying in the SM/CU is a good outcome. But what Parliamentary manoeuvres will bring this about? Nothing has happened of late to change my view that the fight for staying in the SM should start next April. For if it starts now it will be (and has been) perceived as anti-democratic.

    Once the country agrees to stay in the SM it's only a lightbulb moment from staying in the EU. Many might desire that outcome but it just doesn't appear likely to happen.

    Of course that view might be wrong or the polls might swing? But if Labour suddenly flip flops by choosing to fight Brexit and then loses it will be finished. That course of action which you pine for appears to be a massive bear trap with the Brexit media having a field day. First Corbyn will be painted as undemocratic and second he will be blamed for the complete and absolute failure of Brexit discussions.

    Many have noted that the Tories are in disarray, unable to offer up anything that the EU27 will consider. The deadline is around October followed by Brexit next March.

    Labour can swing to the SM option next April long before a transition period ends. Or simply keep going with Customs Union plus alignment. Whether they will shift or not is unclear but if the economy stops growing then people will consider alternatives to this government.

    Is that realpolitik? Possibly... Ultimately there are far more important issues such as housing, the NHS, transport, education and aneamic growth. And to deal with those Labour has to defeat the Alt-right, preferably by splitting the Tories. That is the key which will unlock a radical social democratic agenda. And if the country needs to feel some pain so as to shift 5% of the vote then so be it.

    Not asking you to agree but simply to recognise that come next April 60-70% of the country will all be on the same side - wanting to remain in the Customs Union and Single Market. The blue party will be the one who will have taken us out of the EU and if the economy tanks they take the blame.

    Plenty of people are dubious about the Corbyn McDonnell agenda and in a year or two there will be three options. They either win, make way or the time for a new centrist third way option arrives.

    We can all sense your frustration and you are not alone for around one third of the electorate are ardent remainers. It just happens that another third do not want to leave the "common market" and have no time for Fox, Johnson and the rest.

    Very good summing up of the problems we face. The problem with politicians is that they are more concerned with their own position than doing whats right. Any meaningful opposition would have had May & her Givernment for toast on this long ago......and I speak as a Brexiter & staunch Tory.

    I mainly blame David Cameron & both Referendum parties for all this. Too much posturing & not enough facts. I don't remember the Irish border being discussed on any of the Referendum debates.
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