Remainers have to be patient, there are big risks for Brexit but with current polls only showing a slight lead for remain, if they make their move at the wrong time, it could affect public opinion and Brexit can only be reversed democratically! Rest assured that remainers from all political sides are keeping their powder dry for a do or die push!
In the Autumn parliament will vote on the government’s “withdrawal agreement” with Europe. MPs definitely won’t vote the bill down as they are frightened they will be accused of going against the will of the people. But there won't be any detail in it as if there was, the Conservative party will be fractured! However, with Labour support and 20 or so Tories, MPs could vote for a second referendum next year that gives VOTERS final approval over the terms of withdrawal. The EU would give Britain time to hold one. That is the opportunity - but a referendum would need to be won, which is by no means certain!
I expect the Labour position will be that it respects the will of the people, but the government has made such a mess of negotiations, and with there still being no clarity, we just can't leave on any terms no matter how harsh. We need the British people to sign off what has been agreed!
I would never vote for any MP that voted in Parliament for a second referendum on this issue.
Well that should swing the outcome! Seriously, they will be more concerned about the waverers than the hard Brexiters who keep telling us what they voted for when of course they can only speak for themselves!
Remainers have to be patient, there are big risks for Brexit but with current polls only showing a slight lead for remain, if they make their move at the wrong time, it could affect public opinion and Brexit can only be reversed democratically! Rest assured that remainers from all political sides are keeping their powder dry for a do or die push!
In the Autumn parliament will vote on the government’s “withdrawal agreement” with Europe. MPs definitely won’t vote the bill down as they are frightened they will be accused of going against the will of the people. But there won't be any detail in it as if there was, the Conservative party will be fractured! However, with Labour support and 20 or so Tories, MPs could vote for a second referendum next year that gives VOTERS final approval over the terms of withdrawal. The EU would give Britain time to hold one. That is the opportunity - but a referendum would need to be won, which is by no means certain!
I expect the Labour position will be that it respects the will of the people, but the government has made such a mess of negotiations, and with there still being no clarity, we just can't leave on any terms no matter how harsh. We need the British people to sign off what has been agreed!
I would never vote for any MP that voted in Parliament for a second referendum on this issue.
Well that should swing the outcome! Seriously, they will be more concerned about the waverers than the hard Brexiters who keep telling us what they voted for when of course they can only speak for themselves!
I honestly do not see a second referendum as remotely likely, the more likely outcome is that we basically end up with the "transitional phase" lasting indefinitely which would mean the U.K. is neither in the EU and able to influence the rules nor is it actually out of it and able to control migration from the EU and make trade deals with 3rd countries.
Everything has to align, and real breakthroughs in the negotiations could scupper this! The problem is, any breakthroughs will not go down well with the nutters in the Government who basically want a hard Brexit!
Perversely, a hard Brexit is the best hope of preventing Brexit.
I have a lot of sympathy for not wanting a second referendum or people's vote or whatever despite wanting all this horrendous chite to go away. The national debate leading to such a vote would be a nightmare. Surely we are now close enough to a no deal brexit that whatever it is should happen and brexiters then try to make the impossible work. If all the stories are operation fear we shall find out, the fact that brexiters even call it 'operation fear' tells us even they are afraid of the shiteshow they have ushered in. If we have the South of England as a lorry park, medicines running out, the status of citizens in chaos, travel disruption, cod wars, and a militarized Irish border then so be it, if we don't have those things so be that too. In that scenario it would be generous of the EU to give the UK a couple of years to change it's mind. Not so much a divorce as a trial separation so brexiters can see how it goes. Alternatively the MP's can exercise their power even to the point of another General Election rather than a referendum. MP's are also the fruit of the 'will of the people'. A democratic process no less. The demon voyeur in me wants to bring on the chaos whilst I raise eyebrows at the brexiters.
My own people in the civil service say it's from in the brexit department. Zero morale, zero leadership, everyone knows they are on borrowed time. A shambles from start to finish, one that was entirely predicted.
the longer this drags on the more confident I am that we're not going to get a deal that suits enough people to push it through. As disastrous as it may be, why don't we just exit on WTO terms and start from there.
I don't say this lightly. Nothing is really happening apart from a little spike around xmas when we agreed to extend the transitional period.
If we at least said 'no deal', businesses etc could start planning accordingly
the longer this drags on the more confident I am that we're not going to get a deal that suits enough people to push it through. As disastrous as it may be, why don't we just exit on WTO terms and start from there.
I don't say this lightly. Nothing is really happening apart from a little spike around xmas when we agreed to extend the transitional period.
If we at least said 'no deal', businesses etc could start planning accordingly
I'd assume the Irish border would be the most pressing reason that we cannot do that.
the longer this drags on the more confident I am that we're not going to get a deal that suits enough people to push it through. As disastrous as it may be, why don't we just exit on WTO terms and start from there.
I don't say this lightly. Nothing is really happening apart from a little spike around xmas when we agreed to extend the transitional period.
If we at least said 'no deal', businesses etc could start planning accordingly
An especially cunning plan if you have spare office space or industrial units to let in Calais...
WTO/no deal would, I believe leave less than 10 months to prepare, and require the introduction of significant physical infrastructure and recruitment and training of those to manage it.
Who would be so foolish as to believe that there might be any way that HMG (on a day when the Home Secretary, apparently seriously, suggested the security services should share personal data of c20,000 people that may pose a security threat, with Councils - though the exact purpose and benefit that would recommend such data sharing seems a bit opaque) would do anything that might cause them to f*ck the whole thing up???
With years to prepare this country can't even organize a new train timetable and make it work. The actual reality as a result is people being f*cked over right left and centre. Every reason to think brexit will go well then, not.
the longer this drags on the more confident I am that we're not going to get a deal that suits enough people to push it through. As disastrous as it may be, why don't we just exit on WTO terms and start from there.
I don't say this lightly. Nothing is really happening apart from a little spike around xmas when we agreed to extend the transitional period.
If we at least said 'no deal', businesses etc could start planning accordingly
An especially cunning plan if you have spare office space or industrial units to let in Calais...
WTO/no deal would, I believe leave less than 10 months to prepare, and require the introduction of significant physical infrastructure and recruitment and training of those to manage it.
Who would be so foolish as to believe that there might be any way that HMG (on a day when the Home Secretary, apparently seriously, suggested the security services should share personal data of c20,000 people that may pose a security threat, with Councils - though the exact purpose and benefit that would recommend such data sharing seems a bit opaque) would do anything that might cause them to f*ck the whole thing up???
But this how screwed up it is Norn. What’s the alternative if any or all of the issues like Irish border aren’t sorted in time. Are we just going to just exist in some eternal transitional period. An extension of negotiations is all I can see happening and I’m not even sure if that’s allowed.
the longer this drags on the more confident I am that we're not going to get a deal that suits enough people to push it through. As disastrous as it may be, why don't we just exit on WTO terms and start from there.
I don't say this lightly. Nothing is really happening apart from a little spike around xmas when we agreed to extend the transitional period.
If we at least said 'no deal', businesses etc could start planning accordingly
An especially cunning plan if you have spare office space or industrial units to let in Calais...
WTO/no deal would, I believe leave less than 10 months to prepare, and require the introduction of significant physical infrastructure and recruitment and training of those to manage it.
Who would be so foolish as to believe that there might be any way that HMG (on a day when the Home Secretary, apparently seriously, suggested the security services should share personal data of c20,000 people that may pose a security threat, with Councils - though the exact purpose and benefit that would recommend such data sharing seems a bit opaque) would do anything that might cause them to f*ck the whole thing up???
But this how screwed up it is Norn. What’s the alternative if any or all of the issues like Irish border aren’t sorted in time. Are we just going to just exist in some eternal transitional period. An extension of negotiations is all I can see happening and I’m not even sure if that’s allowed.
Where does this all end?
I expect in tears (probably mine).
I don't really believe that there is enough time left or, I'm afraid to say, resolve on HMG side to have any real chance of a negotiated deal.
Equally, I don't see any real sign of an understanding in mich of the UK media that there are two sides to the negotiation, and that Barnier and Co. have not simply been saying no to each of the UK's brilliant wheezes to date for the fun of it.
The first thing that should have happened following the referendum, rather than a Tory leadership contest, was that Parliament (perhaps in a convention in Westminster Hall, as in 1688-1689, rather than sitting separately as its constituent parts) should have determined what, other than Brexit, Brexit actually meant.
The other thing that was needed, and still seems in short supply is being honest with the electorate, explaining outcomes and basically treating us like adults - because there have to be changes to our relationship with the EU, on many levels, and it is likely that a significant proportion of these changes will bring with them outcomes that most, if not all, of us did not vote for.
Great politicians are often those who do not give the people what the people say that they want, but are those who have the ability to lead the people to an acceptance that they cannot have what they want in pursuit of a more important goal.
The current UK Government (and opposition) is lacking in that kind of leadership.
So, in short, the only dish on the menu in Auntie Theresa's is deep fried turd, on a bed of buffalo chips, served with a garnish of chicken faeces and an unsavoury slurry coulis.
To be fair, more than many, Farage did say that it wasn't about being better off and if we were worse off, he would still want to leave. Which was a clear implication, we could be worse off! I know he said things about being better off too but him and UKIP were less guilty on the promises stakes! They simply wanted to get rid of too may foreigners that were diluting our Englishness - good old fashioned racists!
I am cross with the Labour amendment - it will split votes when alliances are needed. I don't disagree with the sentiment of the amendment, but the strategy! Or lack of strategy! There is a need for pragmatism here, where people on different sides politically have to work together to fight the idiots who are rushing us to the edge of a cliff!
The whole issue with the referendum was that there was no clarity as to what sort of Brexit the people wanted. That applies equally to a soft Brexit as it does to a hard one! That is the area we need to seek clarity on by asking the people. That is something left and right should be able to agree on, except for the fools driving our destruction, but they are the enemies of us all!
On Newsnight last night we saw specifics where EU governments are advising their businesses to seek an EU alternative to UK goods they might need to make their products. They are basically saying there may well be a shit fan interface after the UK cliff edge departure, and they must prepare for life with nothing to do with the UK. They are not saying beg UK companies to continue doing business with them but the message is more that the UK will become no more significant than, say, Guatemala. Brexit voters knew all this and they have a thorough well worked out plan for isolation obviously. Blue passports compensate for any amount of pain.
Well if the policy is to get the best deal possible, of course it isn't different. Obviously, the detail behind that is going to be different but that hardly matters. Theresa May is going to stand up and tell everybody what we don't want from a deal at this late stage with no specifics of what we will get and that is her government's fault! And it is frankly ridiculous! Labour needs to challenge this crap and not introduce it's own crap!
I have no love for the EU, but it is obvious it will harm our country leaving it the way we are doing it. I can agree that with people I might disagree with on everything else and it is important to come together for a short period for the benefit of the country.
It's about the right time for MPs to admit defeat on this impossible task. Like or not I cannot see the sense in pretending otherwise. Keep the status quo for a few more years and if the anti EU politicians can come up with a workable plan where I and the rest of the masses will be better off then maybe have another go at this madness.
There are a lot of people who will say that having no brexit (whatever on earth that actually means) would be the biggest betrayal of 'democracy ' ( meaning their specialized definition of what democracy is) ever. That is the Elephant in the room like it or not. Those people can manipulate enough people to kick up enough of a stink that some kind of brexit has to happen. I have said it enough times, give 'em blue passports and say 'there you go brexit is delivered' and then at least the UK and the EU can carry on as before. If any brexiters object to that simple low cost solution to this whole mess, then they can be challenged to define brexit and provide details as to how it will happen. It is obvious that they don't know either what brexit means of how to do it, hence the whinging about how the EU and remainer people aren't doing it for them. Brexit means Jack shit.
There are a lot of people who will say that having no brexit (whatever on earth that actually means) would be the biggest betrayal of 'democracy ' ( meaning their specialized definition of what democracy is) ever. That is the Elephant in the room like it or not. Those people can manipulate enough people to kick up enough of a stink that some kind of brexit has to happen. I have said it enough times, give 'em blue passports and say 'there you go brexit is delivered' and then at least the UK and the EU can carry on as before. If any brexiters object to that simple low cost solution to this whole mess, then they can be challenged to define brexit and provide details as to how it will happen. It is obvious that they don't know either what brexit means of how to do it, hence the whinging about how the EU and remainer people aren't doing it for them. Brexit means Jack shit.
Well Brexit means leaving the EU, no more and no less as that is what was on the ballot paper.
Staying in SM/CU/Erasmus/Euratom and anything else that we are currently signed up to which we can still be part of whilst not a member is completely up for grabs.
Comments
Perversely, a hard Brexit is the best hope of preventing Brexit.
The national debate leading to such a vote would be a nightmare.
Surely we are now close enough to a no deal brexit that whatever it is should happen and brexiters then try to make the impossible work.
If all the stories are operation fear we shall find out, the fact that brexiters even call it 'operation fear' tells us even they are afraid of the shiteshow they have ushered in.
If we have the South of England as a lorry park, medicines running out, the status of citizens in chaos, travel disruption, cod wars, and a militarized Irish border then so be it, if we don't have those things so be that too.
In that scenario it would be generous of the EU to give the UK a couple of years to change it's mind. Not so much a divorce as a trial separation so brexiters can see how it goes.
Alternatively the MP's can exercise their power even to the point of another General Election rather than a referendum. MP's are also the fruit of the 'will of the people'. A democratic process no less.
The demon voyeur in me wants to bring on the chaos whilst I raise eyebrows at the brexiters.
I don't say this lightly. Nothing is really happening apart from a little spike around xmas when we agreed to extend the transitional period.
If we at least said 'no deal', businesses etc could start planning accordingly
WTO/no deal would, I believe leave less than 10 months to prepare, and require the introduction of significant physical infrastructure and recruitment and training of those to manage it.
Who would be so foolish as to believe that there might be any way that HMG (on a day when the Home Secretary, apparently seriously, suggested the security services should share personal data of c20,000 people that may pose a security threat, with Councils - though the exact purpose and benefit that would recommend such data sharing seems a bit opaque) would do anything that might cause them to f*ck the whole thing up???
The actual reality as a result is people being f*cked over right left and centre.
Every reason to think brexit will go well then, not.
...and they're American and subject to quotas, probably.
as someone commented...
There really should be a bottle of whisky edging away from the beans towards Europe in this photo
Where does this all end?
I don't really believe that there is enough time left or, I'm afraid to say, resolve on HMG side to have any real chance of a negotiated deal.
Equally, I don't see any real sign of an understanding in mich of the UK media that there are two sides to the negotiation, and that Barnier and Co. have not simply been saying no to each of the UK's brilliant wheezes to date for the fun of it.
The first thing that should have happened following the referendum, rather than a Tory leadership contest, was that Parliament (perhaps in a convention in Westminster Hall, as in 1688-1689, rather than sitting separately as its constituent parts) should have determined what, other than Brexit, Brexit actually meant.
The other thing that was needed, and still seems in short supply is being honest with the electorate, explaining outcomes and basically treating us like adults - because there have to be changes to our relationship with the EU, on many levels, and it is likely that a significant proportion of these changes will bring with them outcomes that most, if not all, of us did not vote for.
Great politicians are often those who do not give the people what the people say that they want, but are those who have the ability to lead the people to an acceptance that they cannot have what they want in pursuit of a more important goal.
The current UK Government (and opposition) is lacking in that kind of leadership.
So, in short, the only dish on the menu in Auntie Theresa's is deep fried turd, on a bed of buffalo chips, served with a garnish of chicken faeces and an unsavoury slurry coulis.
Of course, I could be being overly positive.
dictionary.com/browse/buffalo-chips
I'll probably just have a bread roll.
Gordon Brown says so and we all know what a brilliant
PM he was!
The whole issue with the referendum was that there was no clarity as to what sort of Brexit the people wanted. That applies equally to a soft Brexit as it does to a hard one! That is the area we need to seek clarity on by asking the people. That is something left and right should be able to agree on, except for the fools driving our destruction, but they are the enemies of us all!
Brexit voters knew all this and they have a thorough well worked out plan for isolation obviously.
Blue passports compensate for any amount of pain.
Worth reading some of the comments below, too.
I have no love for the EU, but it is obvious it will harm our country leaving it the way we are doing it. I can agree that with people I might disagree with on everything else and it is important to come together for a short period for the benefit of the country.
Keep the status quo for a few more years and if the anti EU politicians can come up with a workable plan where I and the rest of the masses will be better off then maybe have another go at this madness.
That is the Elephant in the room like it or not. Those people can manipulate enough people to kick up enough of a stink that some kind of brexit has to happen.
I have said it enough times, give 'em blue passports and say 'there you go brexit is delivered' and then at least the UK and the EU can carry on as before.
If any brexiters object to that simple low cost solution to this whole mess, then they can be challenged to define brexit and provide details as to how it will happen.
It is obvious that they don't know either what brexit means of how to do it, hence the whinging about how the EU and remainer people aren't doing it for them.
Brexit means Jack shit.
Staying in SM/CU/Erasmus/Euratom and anything else that we are currently signed up to which we can still be part of whilst not a member is completely up for grabs.