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The influence of the EU on Britain.

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  • Looks like another round of European debt crisis is on the cards. Some crazy moves in interest rate curves this last week.

    Deutsche Bank closing at near all time lows.
  • Looks like another round of European debt crisis is on the cards. Some crazy moves in interest rate curves this last week.

    Deutsche Bank closing at near all time lows.

    Don't worry mate.
    One size fits all in the eurozone.
  • Chizz said:

    Nigel Lawson...


    ...has applied...


    ...for a residency permit...


    ...in France.

    Why am I not surprised? And will the Today programme ask him about this when they next invite him on as an "expert on climate change"? Will they ****.

    Have you got a link, btw? I want to tweet that.

    The separate question is whether he will be ordinarily resident in France for tax purposes. I rather think not.

    What a complete and utter ****.

    https://www.connexionfrance.com/French-news/Brexit/Lord-Lawson-applies-for-residency-card-in-France
  • Looks like another round of European debt crisis is on the cards. Some crazy moves in interest rate curves this last week.

    Deutsche Bank closing at near all time lows.

    Don't worry mate.
    One size fits all in the eurozone.
    Blimey, another CL secret hedge fund manager

  • Looks like another round of European debt crisis is on the cards. Some crazy moves in interest rate curves this last week.

    Deutsche Bank closing at near all time lows.

    Don't worry mate.
    One size fits all in the eurozone.
    Blimey, another CL secret hedge fund manager

    If only
  • Looks like another round of European debt crisis is on the cards. Some crazy moves in interest rate curves this last week.

    Deutsche Bank closing at near all time lows.

    I know this is your field polzeath, can you explain further what you think is going to happen (FYI I ask this simply from an objective point of view, there’s no in/out agenda re: this question)

  • I'd say the EU will do what they've done before and kick the can down the road, throwing even more money at the problem.

    Don't think Italy will leave the euro. The political will to keep it going is immense.
  • I'd say the EU will do what they've done before and kick the can down the road, throwing even more money at the problem.

    Don't think Italy will leave the euro. The political will to keep it going is immense.

    And despite what British journos love to call euroscepticism in Italy, the last opinion poll - after the election of these idiots - still had 59% of Italians wanting to stay in the euro. Doubtless this is why both of them have now stopped talking about it as any kind of policy they favour.

    I would not have Italy in my version of the euro. But I think you underestimate the understanding that Italy isn't Greece, and just throwing money at the problem, whatever that is, is not an option. But I don't pretend that an alternative approach is anywhere near ready.

    Juncker is right. They need to work harder and be less corrupt. But he should not have said that in public, right now. Thankfully he won't be around much longer.

  • Stig said:

    McBobbin said:

    Anyway, here's a bloke whose business is going up the Swanee unless this shit storm is sorted. Have a chuckle at his life.

    https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/the-van-driver-being-put-out-of-business-by-brexit/

    A follow up to this. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5775771/Were-road-Car-mageddon-hard-Brexit-drive-industry-ruin.html
    More worrying is the comments below this piece. They don’t understand what they, (might), have just read.
    The level of delusion in those comments is astounding
    Delusional morons. Soon the list of synonyms for Moron and idiot in The Oxford English Dictionary will be updated to include "Brexit voter".
    As much as I understand and share the frustration with what's happening, I'm not really convinced that comments like this are conducive to discussion. Can we try to be a little less accusatory please.
    The time when we could pretend we might have a rational debate with Brexit voters about the catastrophic disaster they have inflicted on this country has passed. The evidence and facts are there for everyone to see. Anyone who believes the earth is flat or refutes the theory of evolution is an idiot. It is pointless to debate with people who hold these views. They should simply be held up for redicule. And it is exactly the same with people who continue to defend their Brexit vote.
    In your world with your interest and views that may be so. However, we live in a democracy that requires 40% at a general election to govern and parties shift their views and statements to make gains / reduce losses in the polls.
    Most people are simply getting on with their lives with a vague awareness that there are no solutions in place yet. What we know is that FDI into the UK dropped by 90% in 2017. That has been followed by 0.1% growth in Q1 2018 - by far the lowest figure across the G7. In all of this uncertainty, nobody is investing or making decisions to recruit etc. Quite the reverse as City firms start relocating EU based activity into Europe.

    As the gif states: "Its happening"

    Should we continue with no decisions and no growth , people will start to ask why? Already lead Brexit protagonists are saying it's the wrong type of Brexit. At what point will the majority wake up and ask WTF?!

    It looks like we might have another year of this by which time we will all have experienced one of the biggest own goals in international history.

    In short, there's no point abusing those who see things differently. Once we leave the EU and people realise that the EU wasn't actually the problem, we are going to need people to engage in what is the solution. We are going to need a government that didn't cause this mess to take over. And for that to happen, it requires the support of the majority, whichever way they voted in 2016.

    Telling people they were wrong and that they need to change their minds isn't going to work, no matter how frustrated we are at the situation. And it may get worse before it gets better? No we need to be patient for a while and see what emerges out of this train wreck.

    We need to understand how different people see this and be ever vigilant when the chances start blaming remoaners and the EU for this mess. For the 30% which support the hard Brexit view of the world to be defeated, the rest need to settle their differences and unite.
  • edited May 2018
    The problem is of course, if we do leave and things get worse rather than better, it will surely destroy the careers of half of the Conservative party and set the party back a decade at least. The rest of us may be more worried about bigger things, like the damage it will have done to the country. The chances of things getting worse are pretty high I would say!

    If we leave with a soft Brexit, I think it can be made to work - or at least damage can be better contolled!
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  • edited May 2018

    The problem is of course, if we do leave and things get worse rather than better, it will surely destroy the careers of half of the Conservative party and set the party back a decade at least. The rest of us may be more worried about bigger things, like the damage it will have done to the country. The chances of things getting worse are pretty high I would say!

    If we leave with a soft Brexit, I think it can be made to work - or at least damage can be better contolled!

    I worry that too little effort has been expended in understanding the EU perspectives, which shape their negotiating stance - instead, all that seems to happen is internal Conservative Party policy war (with those on both sides bringing up the big guns to lob completely incompatible and mutually exclusive HE, as in highly emotional, shells at their enemies within).

    Fundamentally, I'm in the "Carlsberg don't do cutting off your nose to spite your face, destroying reserves of good will and probably crashing the economy, but if they did..." camp.

    I'm more than 50% expecting falling out next March with no deal, no transition and hard borders/customs and immigration controls all round (I have a vague memory of reading some legal experts suggesting that preserving the Common Travel Area and the provisions of The Ireland Act 1949 may not just be rolled over and may require new legislation).
  • If you live in Lewisham East you can vote for Howling Laud Hope in a fortnight.
  • @seth plum, I'm shocked that you have so easily foresworn your political leader, surely you should have been extolling the virtues of Lord Buckethead to @Imissthepeanutman.
  • I'd say the EU will do what they've done before and kick the can down the road, throwing even more money at the problem.

    Don't think Italy will leave the euro. The political will to keep it going is immense.

    And despite what British journos love to call euroscepticism in Italy, the last opinion poll - after the election of these idiots - still had 59% of Italians wanting to stay in the euro. Doubtless this is why both of them have now stopped talking about it as any kind of policy they favour.

    I would not have Italy in my version of the euro. But I think you underestimate the understanding that Italy isn't Greece, and just throwing money at the problem, whatever that is, is not an option. But I don't pretend that an alternative approach is anywhere near ready.

    Juncker is right. They need to work harder and be less corrupt. But he should not have said that in public, right now. Thankfully he won't be around much longer.

    Blimey, another CL secret hedge fund manager
  • edited June 2018

    The problem is of course, if we do leave and things get worse rather than better, it will surely destroy the careers of half of the Conservative party and set the party back a decade at least. The rest of us may be more worried about bigger things, like the damage it will have done to the country. The chances of things getting worse are pretty high I would say!

    If we leave with a soft Brexit, I think it can be made to work - or at least damage can be better contolled!

    I worry that too little effort has been expended in understanding the EU perspectives, which shape their negotiating stance - instead, all that seems to happen is internal Conservative Party policy war (with those on both sides bringing up the big guns to lob completely incompatible and mutually exclusive HE, as in highly emotional, shells at their enemies within).

    Fundamentally, I'm in the "Carlsberg don't do cutting off your nose to spite your face, destroying reserves of good will and probably crashing the economy, but if they did..." camp.

    I'm more than 50% expecting falling out next March with no deal, no transition and hard borders/customs and immigration controls all round (I have a vague memory of reading some legal experts suggesting that preserving the Common Travel Area and the provisions of The Ireland Act 1949 may not just be rolled over and may require new legislation).
    The thing about that is, I expect rebellion if it happens or looks certain to happen. Not just from the Lords but the Commons.
  • The problem is of course, if we do leave and things get worse rather than better, it will surely destroy the careers of half of the Conservative party and set the party back a decade at least. The rest of us may be more worried about bigger things, like the damage it will have done to the country. The chances of things getting worse are pretty high I would say!

    If we leave with a soft Brexit, I think it can be made to work - or at least damage can be better contolled!

    Wouldn't this be dependent on them taking the blame for it though? If there's one thing the Tories and their pals in the press are good at it's shifting responsibility. Just ask Nick Clegg.
  • I voted to leave the Eu. Nothing I have seen since June 2016 has changed my mind. I know I am a racist xenophobic stupid moron who should have all the answers to what 27 and 1 states should do next but I don't. You have all said it many times.

    So what next for Uk democracy and a possible general election?

    I won't vote for T May
    I won't vote for Rees Mogg or Boris
    I won't vote for Corbyn and his ugly momentum group
    I won't vote for Vince because he let me down when in coalition.
    I can't vote for UKIP as they won't exist
    I can't vote Green as Caroline Lucas is standing down and I burn to much fossil fuel and my beards a bit wish washy

    So that leaves Monster Raving Loony.

    So in the space of 10 years I've gone from middle of the road Charles Kennedy lib dem like a whisky type to Monster Raving Loony racist xenophobic moron. This is the sort of reform others need to consider.

    I think you're very typical in not changing your view since the referendum @Imissthepeanutman . Out of interest, what would it take for you to move your position on Brexit?

    I'm genuinely interested in why this is so often the case in the face of all the adverse impacts about Brexit coming to light, literally daily now, and the paucity of positive stories about it.

    Here's yet another impact we will have to find a solution for btw...

    publicsectorexecutive.com/robot-news/brexit-could-weaken-councils-ability-to-protect-public-health-from-2020
  • The problem is of course, if we do leave and things get worse rather than better, it will surely destroy the careers of half of the Conservative party and set the party back a decade at least. The rest of us may be more worried about bigger things, like the damage it will have done to the country. The chances of things getting worse are pretty high I would say!

    If we leave with a soft Brexit, I think it can be made to work - or at least damage can be better contolled!

    Wouldn't this be dependent on them taking the blame for it though? If there's one thing the Tories and their pals in the press are good at it's shifting responsibility. Just ask Nick Clegg.
    Of course if we got a soft Brexit, they would blame our struggles on this and remainers and they might have some success in doing so. But a hard Brexit and future failure would make it impossible for them to escape blame even though I'm sure they will try.
  • Very interesting times here in Spain with the Socialist Pedro Sanchez replacing Mariano Rajoy after a vote of no confidence was passed. Not sure how much coverage it has got in the UK but what might be relevant is that it's an example of a country and politicians blaming internal factors (in this case corruption) for its problems rather than the EU. Also shows that each country is totally different unlike the perception of a faceless superstate that some Brexiters seem to think Europe is.
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  • Very interesting times here in Spain with the Socialist Pedro Sanchez replacing Mariano Rajoy after a vote of no confidence was passed. Not sure how much coverage it has got in the UK but what might be relevant is that it's an example of a country and politicians blaming internal factors (in this case corruption) for its problems rather than the EU. Also shows that each country is totally different unlike the perception of a faceless superstate that some Brexiters seem to think Europe is.

    Quite a lot of coverage here on Radio 4.
  • I voted to leave the Eu. Nothing I have seen since June 2016 has changed my mind. I know I am a racist xenophobic stupid moron who should have all the answers to what 27 and 1 states should do next but I don't. You have all said it many times.

    So what next for Uk democracy and a possible general election?

    I won't vote for T May
    I won't vote for Rees Mogg or Boris
    I won't vote for Corbyn and his ugly momentum group
    I won't vote for Vince because he let me down when in coalition.
    I can't vote for UKIP as they won't exist
    I can't vote Green as Caroline Lucas is standing down and I burn to much fossil fuel and my beards a bit wish washy

    So that leaves Monster Raving Loony.

    So in the space of 10 years I've gone from middle of the road Charles Kennedy lib dem like a whisky type to Monster Raving Loony racist xenophobic moron. This is the sort of reform others need to consider.

    I think you're very typical in not changing your view since the referendum @Imissthepeanutman . Out of interest, what would it take for you to move your position on Brexit?

    I'm genuinely interested in why this is so often the case in the face of all the adverse impacts about Brexit coming to light, literally daily now, and the paucity of positive stories about it.

    Here's yet another impact we will have to find a solution for btw...

    publicsectorexecutive.com/robot-news/brexit-could-weaken-councils-ability-to-protect-public-health-from-2020
    I am not sure I am your typical leave voter given my history of voting in general elections. But let's park that. In essence I am not comfortable with a democratic process that feels remote to me. In that classic phrase keep your friends close but your enemies closer.

    Now in the same context I am extremely pissed off that in 40 years of middle ground voting my uk vote has generally been irrelevant. I have only once voted Tory and ukip as primarily protest votes with everything else being Lib dem.

    So from a starting point of a liberal I don't like large power bases. Neither the Tory grandees or labour backed by powerful unions.' Not my cup of tea.

    The Eu feels like a large power base not representing the view or concerns of ordinary citizens. Furthermore I cannot see harmonisation between the economies and people of say Germany and Italy. They are opposites. Germany is financially very disciplined with a painful history and Italy is a basket case on several levels. For the Eu to work for the long term either Germany has too loosen its disciplinary stance (unlikely) or Italians become productive and disciplined like the Germans. I don't see it without pain on either side. There are other variations across the EU.

    So what would change my mind? I suppose a fundamental change in politics to represent the middle ground and not the extremes. Probably a Ruth Davidson/ chukka ummuna type coalition which also was reflected in Europe. Maybe.





  • edited June 2018

    I voted to leave the Eu. Nothing I have seen since June 2016 has changed my mind. I know I am a racist xenophobic stupid moron who should have all the answers to what 27 and 1 states should do next but I don't. You have all said it many times.

    So what next for Uk democracy and a possible general election?

    I won't vote for T May
    I won't vote for Rees Mogg or Boris
    I won't vote for Corbyn and his ugly momentum group
    I won't vote for Vince because he let me down when in coalition.
    I can't vote for UKIP as they won't exist
    I can't vote Green as Caroline Lucas is standing down and I burn to much fossil fuel and my beards a bit wish washy

    So that leaves Monster Raving Loony.

    So in the space of 10 years I've gone from middle of the road Charles Kennedy lib dem like a whisky type to Monster Raving Loony racist xenophobic moron. This is the sort of reform others need to consider.

    I think you're very typical in not changing your view since the referendum @Imissthepeanutman . Out of interest, what would it take for you to move your position on Brexit?

    I'm genuinely interested in why this is so often the case in the face of all the adverse impacts about Brexit coming to light, literally daily now, and the paucity of positive stories about it.

    Here's yet another impact we will have to find a solution for btw...

    publicsectorexecutive.com/robot-news/brexit-could-weaken-councils-ability-to-protect-public-health-from-2020
    I am not sure I am your typical leave voter given my history of voting in general elections. But let's park that. In essence I am not comfortable with a democratic process that feels remote to me. In that classic phrase keep your friends close but your enemies closer.

    Now in the same context I am extremely pissed off that in 40 years of middle ground voting my uk vote has generally been irrelevant. I have only once voted Tory and ukip as primarily protest votes with everything else being Lib dem.

    So from a starting point of a liberal I don't like large power bases. Neither the Tory grandees or labour backed by powerful unions.' Not my cup of tea.

    The Eu feels like a large power base not representing the view or concerns of ordinary citizens. Furthermore I cannot see harmonisation between the economies and people of say Germany and Italy. They are opposites. Germany is financially very disciplined with a painful history and Italy is a basket case on several levels. For the Eu to work for the long term either Germany has too loosen its disciplinary stance (unlikely) or Italians become productive and disciplined like the Germans. I don't see it without pain on either side. There are other variations across the EU.

    So what would change my mind? I suppose a fundamental change in politics to represent the middle ground and not the extremes. Probably a Ruth Davidson/ chukka ummuna type coalition which also was reflected in Europe. Maybe.

    Firstly, thanks for your considered response.

    I was only saying you were typical of Leavers in that you haven't changed your mind in the face of a growing amount of evidence that it will be detrimental to the UK. I made no comment on your underlying political leanings.

    Unsurprisingly I don't agree, or if I'm honest understand completely your point of view. In my view the actions of the EU, by virtue of it being made up of 28 widely differing countries each with a say, is likely to be far more representative of the interests of the ordinary European citizen than a UK government led by the Boris Johnsons of the world. Nevertheless there are of course differences between the countries involved a la Germany v Italy. I'd argue that's evidence the EU is not all controlling anyway but regardless of internal tensions was not sufficient, in my view, to vote to Leave and continue to weaken the UK and it's citizens on a point of principle. I don't believe many people did vote on that basis anyway but accept you're saying you did. I think.

    The above is only going over old ground of course.

    I really don't get your final point either. The EU is, by definition, a coalition of political views across the spectrum that results in policies designed to benefit all it's members. It's a valid criticism that due to that very set up it's slow and cumbersome of course but I don't agree that it's less representative of the centrist politics you seem to seek than our own government that has lurched to the right.
  • I heard about this and thought it was spoof news.

    There is a de-militarised zone between North and South Korea, but try strolling across that particular border and see what happens.

    I know why Davis has suggested this, because of homes and villages and trade that straddle the border but all it does is establish (two) hard borders elsewhere. And it is so impractical as to beggar belief, but he seems to have accepted that the technological solution is not a runner.

    This buffer zone idea is beyond ludicrous, and it wasn't a fourth suggestion last December (the one with the sea border backstop) that allowed negotiations with the EU to continue.

    It goes without saying that all those voting brexit planned for this buffer zone because they knew what they were voting for!

    All those who voted Tory knew about this too because their increasingly surreal negotiator told them!

    I don't want another referendum or a people's vote but surely out of 650 members of the House of Commons there must be somebody to say 'look guys, Lord Buckethead called it right, this is a s*it show decorated by Irish cow pats but the Tories are desperate to describe the manure as the Emperors New Clothes'

    Brexiters say remainers have 'weaponised' Ireland. Err no. The traditional anti Irish racists simply thought they could wing it.
  • Just posted this on the Italy thread, but think it deserves to be here too. You would not expect this from the coverage in the U.K. Media, would you?

  • Just posted this on the Italy thread, but think it deserves to be here too. You would not expect this from the coverage in the U.K. Media, would you?

    Why is this surprising? The Italians , like all of us, if asked will say they want to eat their cake and keep it.
    The issue is that Italy cannot devalue its currency or get its debts forgiven, this is the fundamental dilemma whatever they think about staying in the Euro.
  • Southbank said:


    Ask the Greeks what they think, and the Italians under what looks like their new anti-Euro Government.

    Southbank said:


    Why is this surprising? The Italians , like all of us, if asked will say they want to eat their cake and keep it.
    The issue is that Italy cannot devalue its currency or get its debts forgiven, this is the fundamental dilemma whatever they think about staying in the Euro.

    "Looks like" the government and the people are at odds already in Italy then... :wink:
This discussion has been closed.

Roland Out Forever!