@Southbank you are in favour of brexit, can you suggest a solution to the Irish border problem, or will you do as so many others do and say 'that's what the politicians have to sort out, that's what we pay them for'?
Because those politicians simply can't sort it out can they?
Here’s a thought – what if, in the interests of the Good Friday Agreement, the Common Travel Area and associated rights and, above all, maintaining peace, the UK simply refuses to impose a hard border or internal customs checks?
I like the thought, but the implications are tricky. For a start it would mean no brexit is happening wouldn't it?
Not sure to be honest - I need to think it through.
Basically we would be saying that peace is paramount so this is an exception.
The exception is the problem. Either brexit means control of borders or it doesn't. It is not about hard or soft borders, but a border or no border.
Maybe, maybe not ... we have a specific interest in maintaining peace - I do not see why this would not be acceptable to everyone, leave and remain.
Peace is of course paramount but not having any kind of border controls for trade would cause enormous issues once the UK is forced to use the WTO tariffs.
The Irish border issue is as complicated as it gets and Seth has been pointing this out for as long as I can remember.
I do not think my proposal causes a problem for the UK - it may not be perfect for the EU, but ... as we both agree, peace is paramount.
Correct, it won't be a problem for the UK. It will be a problem for the EU. So why should they accept it. It is up to the UK to come up with an acceptable solution that protects the peace agreement. Personally, I think the only solution apart from a hard border, which is not acceptable to either the people of the Republic or the people of NI, is the Reunification of Ireland.
@Southbank you are in favour of brexit, can you suggest a solution to the Irish border problem, or will you do as so many others do and say 'that's what the politicians have to sort out, that's what we pay them for'?
Because those politicians simply can't sort it out can they?
Here’s a thought – what if, in the interests of the Good Friday Agreement, the Common Travel Area and associated rights and, above all, maintaining peace, the UK simply refuses to impose a hard border or internal customs checks?
Then the UK crash out of the EU with no deal.
Why?
Why would the EU accept no border controls? Are there any other EU borders where there are no customs/border controls and checks? Serious question. I assume the answer is no.
If we believe that, in the interests of peace, there should be no border control or customs checks, then this is the price of peace and harmony within the British Isles and they should accept it.
@Southbank you are in favour of brexit, can you suggest a solution to the Irish border problem, or will you do as so many others do and say 'that's what the politicians have to sort out, that's what we pay them for'?
Because those politicians simply can't sort it out can they?
Here’s a thought – what if, in the interests of the Good Friday Agreement, the Common Travel Area and associated rights and, above all, maintaining peace, the UK simply refuses to impose a hard border or internal customs checks?
I like the thought, but the implications are tricky. For a start it would mean no brexit is happening wouldn't it?
Not sure to be honest - I need to think it through.
Basically we would be saying that peace is paramount so this is an exception.
The exception is the problem. Either brexit means control of borders or it doesn't. It is not about hard or soft borders, but a border or no border.
Maybe, maybe not ... we have a specific interest in maintaining peace - I do not see why this would not be acceptable to everyone, leave and remain.
Peace is of course paramount but not having any kind of border controls for trade would cause enormous issues once the UK is forced to use the WTO tariffs.
The Irish border issue is as complicated as it gets and Seth has been pointing this out for as long as I can remember.
I do not think my proposal causes a problem for the UK - it may not be perfect for the EU, but ... as we both agree, peace is paramount.
Until now, we have been looking to see what sort of negotiations would make for sufficient progress that would allow for trade talks. There has been no requirement to nail every detail down, but the principles and methodologies need to be sorted out soon.
The issue would be that (where there is no trade deal) if you have no customs controls at the border in Ireland, the UK and, if reciprocated, the EU, must allow the same access to all WTO members.
Quite apart from the impact on employment, this would lead to a reduction in tax revenue and, one would logically assume, government spending. I don't believe that either side want that, and, as a result, a deal of some sort is required.
The EU have always been reasonably content with the idea of an open border, which they would expect to involve membership of the Single Market and/Customs Union. The UK have, prior to any negotiations, said no to that arrangement.
The EU, as Leo Varadkar made clear yesterday, would like detail on how the UK Government would propose to make things work on the border (the phrases used to date have been strong on rhetorical flourish but without substance). What needs to happen is for a discussion to take place about how the borders are to remain open, not airy statements that we want them to.
Almost no-one wants a return to violence, but those that do will want the hardest of all Brexits (as indeed, I believe, do Sinn Fein), as it increases support for their "cause".
The eu won't accept part of the U.K. Having direct and unconstrained access to an eu market. Why would it.
I don't think a unified Ireland is likely just yet but it might move the issue off the back burner. In ten years it might look very attractive to the people of NI to see unification on the agenda. In any case it would be very long and fraught process that would eclipse any Brexit timescales.
The eu won't accept part of the U.K. Having direct and unconstrained access to an eu market. Why would it.
I don't think a unified Ireland is likely just yet but it might move the issue off the back burner. In ten years it might look very attractive to the people of NI to see unification on the agenda. In any case it would be very long and fraught process that would eclipse any Brexit timescales.
As I said, we do it in the interests of peace and make that very clear ... it's a strong argument and puts the onus on the EU.
The eu won't accept part of the U.K. Having direct and unconstrained access to an eu market. Why would it.
I don't think a unified Ireland is likely just yet but it might move the issue off the back burner. In ten years it might look very attractive to the people of NI to see unification on the agenda. In any case it would be very long and fraught process that would eclipse any Brexit timescales.
As I said, we do it in the interests of peace and make that very clear ... it's a strong argument and puts the onus on the EU.
Don't think it is a strong argument. In fact, it is no argument at all. The EU's priority is to protect its borders and the single market not help the UK deal with the ramifications of its own crass stupidity.
The eu won't accept part of the U.K. Having direct and unconstrained access to an eu market. Why would it.
I don't think a unified Ireland is likely just yet but it might move the issue off the back burner. In ten years it might look very attractive to the people of NI to see unification on the agenda. In any case it would be very long and fraught process that would eclipse any Brexit timescales.
As I said, we do it in the interests of peace and make that very clear ... it's a strong argument and puts the onus on the EU.
The initial establishment of the EU common market as it was then, was heavily driven by a desire for peace in Europe after WW2. If it is about peace there wouldn't be a brexit that impacts on Ireland, but the UK population has (probably unknowingly) made a decision that will possibly lead to conflict, Brexit certainly wasn't a vote that had peace as it's driver.
The eu won't accept part of the U.K. Having direct and unconstrained access to an eu market. Why would it.
I don't think a unified Ireland is likely just yet but it might move the issue off the back burner. In ten years it might look very attractive to the people of NI to see unification on the agenda. In any case it would be very long and fraught process that would eclipse any Brexit timescales.
As I said, we do it in the interests of peace and make that very clear ... it's a strong argument and puts the onus on the EU.
It's not the EU that has to be persuaded, it's the WTO members, because unless they are prepared to allow their rules to be bent, it cannot happen without significant economic damage/dislocation for the EU and UK.
What if we promise the EU the £100bn over a period of say ten years - and then default.
They could hardly take the UK to the European Court or send the bailiffs round.
What if we promise €70Bn over seven years, i.e., settle the commitments, remain in the EU until March 2019 and then have a five year transition to sort this all out, paying €10bn a year for continued access to all markets.
Yeah, I know Boris and Gove put it on the bus that the €10Bn would go to the NHS instead but they didn't exactly spell out the cost to jobs and the economy if we leave everything overnight, did they?
This coincides with the latest thinking from Yanis Varoufakis shared on This Week last Thursday. Basically a five year transition lets everybody off the hook for a while and means that Barnier can stand down once the Irish Border and rights for 3M EU citizens are resolved. As he stated and I have posted repeatedly, M.Barnier is not a negotiator - this is NOT a negotiation!
We are leaving the EU - the question is whether we settle our accounts and we want to maintain a sensible trading relationship.
Two thirds of the country support the stance above and it is Labour Party policy (well not the timeframe). Whatever people might think of Corbyn's commitment to the EU, we should be very clear that Varoufakis is close to Corbyn and McDonell. And Varoufakis spent six months locked in negotiations with the EU when he was Greek Finance Minister. Many disagree with the stance he took but the fact remains that he has that perspective and knows without a shadow of a doubt, that the only way forwards is to put on the table a deal which cannot be refused.
That this deal is not acceptable to the far right who wish to see the EU collapse is an added bonus!
In the meantime the EU continues to grow, the Italian economy creates some jobs and resolves some more banking issues. And the media will spin events of the last week when absolutely nothing has changed! The UK still needs to resolve the first phase before the second phase begins... the first phase will look eexpensive so Davis and May take their time... and the second phase could take five minutes if we agree to an interim deal to stay in the EEA/CU/SM.
All a little contentious but perhaps the Q3 GDP growth figures coming out next week will help some make up their minds. For sure those who support hard Brexit will state it's just a little pain and it proves nothing. However a growth figure of 0.3% in line with expectations plus Q1 and Q2 will immediately lead to a reforecast of 2017 growth - perhaps a downgrade as much as 0.5%?
For a £2 Trillion economy, watching growth forecasts drop from 2.1% to 1.7% (current) down to 1.2% is one hell of a hit.
The UK is being slowly suckered into a very bad deal .........
The UK was suckered into a very bad deal when the Brexit vote was delivered by the lies and fake news from the looney wing of the Tory party, Dark money and Russian trolls.
If you really think this is what happened you must be finding the world a very confusing place just now.
The UK is being slowly suckered into a very bad deal .........
The UK was suckered into a very bad deal when the Brexit vote was delivered by the lies and fake news from the looney wing of the Tory party, Dark money and Russian trolls.
If you really think this is what happened you must be finding the world a very confusing place just now.
It is a very confusing place. Those who don't recognise that, and cling to simple certainties peddled by populists are doomed to disappointment, and in the case of the poorest, more than disappointment. Meanwhile people like Aaron Banks will continue to enrich themselves.
The UK is being slowly suckered into a very bad deal .........
The UK was suckered into a very bad deal when the Brexit vote was delivered by the lies and fake news from the looney wing of the Tory party, Dark money and Russian trolls.
If you really think this is what happened you must be finding the world a very confusing place just now.
It is a very confusing place. Those who don't recognise that, and cling to simple certainties peddled by populists are doomed to disappointment, and in the case of the poorest, more than disappointment. Meanwhile people like Aaron Banks will continue to enrich themselves.
Enjoy.
The mistake is to think the tail is wagging the dog. Populist politicians are getting a hearing because of massive and widespread disillusionment with the political establishment. It is not Russians or Aaron Banks that created this, although they have tried to take advantage of it. Unless and until there is a major change in the kind of leadership we get, and I include the undemocratic, protectionist and corrupt EU in this, large sections of society will have nowhere else to go except the kinds of people I am sure you and I have little sympathy for.
What if we promise the EU the £100bn over a period of say ten years - and then default.
They could hardly take the UK to the European Court or send the bailiffs round.
For a £2 Trillion economy, watching growth forecasts drop from 2.1% to 1.7% (current) down to 1.2% is one hell of a hit.
But the economy is still growing and we're not falling into a deep recession as predicted post vote.
I'm in no doubt that Brexit is going to do no favours initially for our economy, but the doom and gloom that some posters are going on and on and on about, has failed to materialise just yet.
What if we promise the EU the £100bn over a period of say ten years - and then default.
They could hardly take the UK to the European Court or send the bailiffs round.
For a £2 Trillion economy, watching growth forecasts drop from 2.1% to 1.7% (current) down to 1.2% is one hell of a hit.
But the economy is still growing and we're not falling into a deep recession as predicted post vote.
I'm in no doubt that Brexit is going to do no favours initially for our economy, but the doom and gloom that some posters are going on and on and on about, has failed to materialise just yet.
The predictions were based on article 50 being triggered the next day, as Cameron said it would be, and as didn't happen. So why refer to predictions based on a set of circumstances that didn't happen?
And the pound losing more than 12% of its value and our GDP growth rate dropping to the bottom of the EU are sufficiently bad to conclude the warnings may have had some validity?
What if we promise the EU the £100bn over a period of say ten years - and then default.
They could hardly take the UK to the European Court or send the bailiffs round.
For a £2 Trillion economy, watching growth forecasts drop from 2.1% to 1.7% (current) down to 1.2% is one hell of a hit.
But the economy is still growing and we're not falling into a deep recession as predicted post vote.
I'm in no doubt that Brexit is going to do no favours initially for our economy, but the doom and gloom that some posters are going on and on and on about, has failed to materialise just yet.
The UK is being slowly suckered into a very bad deal .........
The UK was suckered into a very bad deal when the Brexit vote was delivered by the lies and fake news from the looney wing of the Tory party, Dark money and Russian trolls.
If you really think this is what happened you must be finding the world a very confusing place just now.
It is a very confusing place. Those who don't recognise that, and cling to simple certainties peddled by populists are doomed to disappointment, and in the case of the poorest, more than disappointment. Meanwhile people like Aaron Banks will continue to enrich themselves.
Enjoy.
The mistake is to think the tail is wagging the dog. Populist politicians are getting a hearing because of massive and widespread disillusionment with the political establishment. It is not Russians or Aaron Banks that created this, although they have tried to take advantage of it. Unless and until there is a major change in the kind of leadership we get, and I include the undemocratic, protectionist and corrupt EU in this, large sections of society will have nowhere else to go except the kinds of people I am sure you and I have little sympathy for.
I'm genuinely interested in why you think there should be a change in the political leadership we get as a result of Brexit. There are decent, principled politicians the world over who want to do the best for the people whom they represent and work tirelessly to this end. Seemingly, there are rather more who are preoccupied in feathering their own nests and/or living out their favourite political ideologies regardless of the effects upon ordinary people. Personally I can't think for one minute how Brexit will change this.
So it's not post vote as Osborne along with others suggested? Is it after the triggering of Article 50 or after we've actually left?
I still don't get this 'bottom of the EU' in relation to growth. It fluctuates year on year and I would expect the smaller EU economies to show significant growth now they benefit from their EU membership.
I really do see the disadvantages to leaving the EU, but I'm determined to try and be positive about it. I'm surprised so many on here seem to revel in our nations failings rather than celebrate the successes.
How is the election of Eurosceptic billionaire Andrej Babis and the massive shrinking of the pro European parties in the Czech elections being seen in Prague?
So it's not post vote as Osborne along with others suggested? Is it after the triggering of Article 50 or after we've actually left?
I still don't get this 'bottom of the EU' in relation to growth. It fluctuates year on year and I would expect the smaller EU economies to show significant growth now they benefit from their EU membership.
I really do see the disadvantages to leaving the EU, but I'm determined to try and be positive about it. I'm surprised so many on here seem to revel in our nations failings rather than celebrate the successes.
How is the election of Eurosceptic billionaire Andrej Babis and the massive shrinking of the pro European parties in the Czech elections being seen in Prague?
Doesn’t seem to be the ideal leader but has a good following.
Comments
Anyway, the game beckons.
The issue would be that (where there is no trade deal) if you have no customs controls at the border in Ireland, the UK and, if reciprocated, the EU, must allow the same access to all WTO members.
Quite apart from the impact on employment, this would lead to a reduction in tax revenue and, one would logically assume, government spending. I don't believe that either side want that, and, as a result, a deal of some sort is required.
The EU have always been reasonably content with the idea of an open border, which they would expect to involve membership of the Single Market and/Customs Union. The UK have, prior to any negotiations, said no to that arrangement.
The EU, as Leo Varadkar made clear yesterday, would like detail on how the UK Government would propose to make things work on the border (the phrases used to date have been strong on rhetorical flourish but without substance). What needs to happen is for a discussion to take place about how the borders are to remain open, not airy statements that we want them to.
Almost no-one wants a return to violence, but those that do will want the hardest of all Brexits (as indeed, I believe, do Sinn Fein), as it increases support for their "cause".
I don't think a unified Ireland is likely just yet but it might move the issue off the back burner. In ten years it might look very attractive to the people of NI to see unification on the agenda. In any case it would be very long and fraught process that would eclipse any Brexit timescales.
We will see what happens.
Yeah, I know Boris and Gove put it on the bus that the €10Bn would go to the NHS instead but they didn't exactly spell out the cost to jobs and the economy if we leave everything overnight, did they?
This coincides with the latest thinking from Yanis Varoufakis shared on This Week last Thursday. Basically a five year transition lets everybody off the hook for a while and means that Barnier can stand down once the Irish Border and rights for 3M EU citizens are resolved. As he stated and I have posted repeatedly, M.Barnier is not a negotiator - this is NOT a negotiation!
We are leaving the EU - the question is whether we settle our accounts and we want to maintain a sensible trading relationship.
Two thirds of the country support the stance above and it is Labour Party policy (well not the timeframe). Whatever people might think of Corbyn's commitment to the EU, we should be very clear that Varoufakis is close to Corbyn and McDonell. And Varoufakis spent six months locked in negotiations with the EU when he was Greek Finance Minister. Many disagree with the stance he took but the fact remains that he has that perspective and knows without a shadow of a doubt, that the only way forwards is to put on the table a deal which cannot be refused.
That this deal is not acceptable to the far right who wish to see the EU collapse is an added bonus!
In the meantime the EU continues to grow, the Italian economy creates some jobs and resolves some more banking issues. And the media will spin events of the last week when absolutely nothing has changed! The UK still needs to resolve the first phase before the second phase begins... the first phase will look eexpensive so Davis and May take their time... and the second phase could take five minutes if we agree to an interim deal to stay in the EEA/CU/SM.
All a little contentious but perhaps the Q3 GDP growth figures coming out next week will help some make up their minds. For sure those who support hard Brexit will state it's just a little pain and it proves nothing. However a growth figure of 0.3% in line with expectations plus Q1 and Q2 will immediately lead to a reforecast of 2017 growth - perhaps a downgrade as much as 0.5%?
For a £2 Trillion economy, watching growth forecasts drop from 2.1% to 1.7% (current) down to 1.2% is one hell of a hit.
Fake news - Check
Looney Tories - Check
Dark Money - Check
Russian Trolls - Check
What's not to like ?
Enjoy.
Unless and until there is a major change in the kind of leadership we get, and I include the undemocratic, protectionist and corrupt EU in this, large sections of society will have nowhere else to go except the kinds of people I am sure you and I have little sympathy for.
Cor, get a life
I'm in no doubt that Brexit is going to do no favours initially for our economy, but the doom and gloom that some posters are going on and on and on about, has failed to materialise just yet.
And the pound losing more than 12% of its value and our GDP growth rate dropping to the bottom of the EU are sufficiently bad to conclude the warnings may have had some validity?
So it's not post vote as Osborne along with others suggested? Is it after the triggering of Article 50 or after we've actually left?
I still don't get this 'bottom of the EU' in relation to growth. It fluctuates year on year and I would expect the smaller EU economies to show significant growth now they benefit from their EU membership.
I really do see the disadvantages to leaving the EU, but I'm determined to try and be positive about it. I'm surprised so many on here seem to revel in our nations failings rather than celebrate the successes.
How is the election of Eurosceptic billionaire Andrej Babis and the massive shrinking of the pro European parties in the Czech elections being seen in Prague?
;-)
https://google.co.uk/amp/s/www.newstatesman.com/culture/observations/2017/10/czech-trump-shoots-power-rise-and-rise-andrej-babi%3famp