well that buggered my chances 😀, I thought there might have been a slight drop but didn’t expect so large a fall.
Still time for an adjustment. Other European markets such as DAX didnt open on such a large fall. On the other hand if it keeps falling I’ve got @Rob7Lee waiting to pounce...
Actually, looking forward, punters, what about the next competition? I guess we are settled on FTSE100 as the index, but what about the question of 6 months vs one year as the time span? Good arguments for either..
Meanwhile, looking at the opening today...err....
6 months. 3 months? Can't wait another year for this fun. If the tracking is onerous, we could round robin that, Prague.
We could do it quarterly for 2021. 6 months or 12 very easy to lose interest. Could then also have an annual winner totting up all quarters scores? Bit of a league table as we go, happy to do the leg work/spreadsheet.
The only thing I would say about shorter timespans is that this time round at least we've possibly created something of genuine value for the CL investment community; not so much about the competition itself but the sharing of thoughts about what might influence the index in the coming period. That could help people with their real investments - certainly helps me. Quarterly, I'm not sure how I would evaluate the outlook. If we do a year, we could compare ourselves to the "professionals"
That said, this one wasn't a year, it was actually four and a half months. As was the previous one, more or less
Some combo of the above, probably. More views?
I wouldn't say tracking was in any way onerous, but what I set up is clunky, and I'm sure several of you would do it better.
We could do it quarterly for 2021. 6 months or 12 very easy to lose interest. Could then also have an annual winner totting up all quarters scores? Bit of a league table as we go, happy to do the leg work/spreadsheet.
Actually, looking forward, punters, what about the next competition? I guess we are settled on FTSE100 as the index, but what about the question of 6 months vs one year as the time span? Good arguments for either..
Meanwhile, looking at the opening today...err....
Good fun as you say. Personally, I'd prefer any future competitions to be over a 6 month period because if you do it over 3 months, it could become a bit too much and presumably movements over a 3 month period are going to be relatively minor unless you have a major panic or a major uplift. So a small 5-10% guess either way probably isn't going to be far out. 6 months gives a greater scope for major changes which might need greater expertise (luck?) to predict. But happy with whatever you decide.
Another competition you might care to run is when will the FTSE go back to its January peak of 7674. On 31 December 1999, the FTSE hit a peak and then immediately went into a steep decline. It took 14 or 15 years to regain that peak. Will it take that long this time?
Finally, thanks to everyone who has offered advice (sorry, not advice , thoughts!) on this thread. I'm still in a state of shock by how much my Baillee Gifford funds have gone up by this year - if anyone would like to pontificate on whether now is the time to sell, or at least take some profits, I'd be interested in views. Or should I sit tight and hope for similar in 2021?
Actually, looking forward, punters, what about the next competition? I guess we are settled on FTSE100 as the index, but what about the question of 6 months vs one year as the time span? Good arguments for either..
Meanwhile, looking at the opening today...err....
Good fun as you say. Personally, I'd prefer any future competitions to be over a 6 month period because if you do it over 3 months, it could become a bit too much and presumably movements over a 3 month period are going to be relatively minor unless you have a major panic or a major uplift. So a small 5-10% guess either way probably isn't going to be far out. 6 months gives a greater scope for major changes which might need greater expertise (luck?) to predict. But happy with whatever you decide.
Another competition you might care to run is when will the FTSE go back to its January peak of 7674. On 31 December 1999, the FTSE hit a peak and then immediately went into a steep decline. It took 14 or 15 years to regain that peak. Will it take that long this time?
Finally, thanks to everyone who has offered advice (sorry, not advice , thoughts!) on this thread. I'm still in a state of shock by how much my Baillee Gifford funds have gone up by this year - if anyone would like to pontificate on whether now is the time to sell, or at least take some profits, I'd be interested in views. Or should I sit tight and hope for similar in 2021?
Well I bought on the last dip just three months ago and they are already delivering double digit growth. Unless you need cash, why sell, and where else would you put it? Or another way to think of it. The reasons why you bought them at the time. Do they still apply? If yes, then hold. That's how i look at it, anyway. I'm more worried about my tech stuff but even there, there are a lot of voices arguing that they should still do well, because the main current threats (legislation) will be hard to enact.
6,460.52 is the finish I believe. You were even closer!
Don't act like you don't know that, at the LSE on your Bloomberg terminal though ;-)
Congratulations.
Thanks. Honestly, I'm mystified. It's also the first time I can remember finishing first in anything, except in bed!
Anyway, don't forget our bet but I decided that if I win I'd cough up something too, for CACT, as I need to pay in memory of Steve Clarke, which I have not yet done, so I'll double it.
6,460.52 is the finish I believe. You were even closer!
Don't act like you don't know that, at the LSE on your Bloomberg terminal though ;-)
Congratulations.
Thanks. Honestly, I'm mystified. It's also the first time I can remember finishing first in anything, except in bed!
Anyway, don't forget our bet but I decided that if I win I'd cough up something too, for CACT, as I need to pay in memory of Steve Clarke, which I have not yet done, so I'll double it.
Comments
That said, this one wasn't a year, it was actually four and a half months. As was the previous one, more or less
Some combo of the above, probably. More views?
I wouldn't say tracking was in any way onerous, but what I set up is clunky, and I'm sure several of you would do it better.
6409-6435 it's @Rob7Lee
below 6409 it opens up for @RalphMilne to steal in for a Naby Sarr style winner
The above possibly subject to decimal points to determine the exact winner.
Good game, lorra fun
It's good for those holding cash to invest - not just yet though.
Another competition you might care to run is when will the FTSE go back to its January peak of 7674. On 31 December 1999, the FTSE hit a peak and then immediately went into a steep decline. It took 14 or 15 years to regain that peak. Will it take that long this time?
Finally, thanks to everyone who has offered advice (sorry, not advice , thoughts!) on this thread. I'm still in a state of shock by how much my Baillee Gifford funds have gone up by this year - if anyone would like to pontificate on whether now is the time to sell, or at least take some profits, I'd be interested in views. Or should I sit tight and hope for similar in 2021?
Who are you really, I think we should be told!
Give me time for my turkey sarnie and I'll whack up the full results.
Don't act like you don't know that, at the LSE on your Bloomberg terminal though ;-)
Congratulations.
Anyway, don't forget our bet
Here is what I think is the most important result.
For all 27 of us as a group the median accuracy was 97.8%, and average accuracy was 98.3%.
That is remarkably impressive, is it not?
Just wish I had spare cash to follow all the advice I read on this thread.