Grand National 2025

StarryNight said:

Unless something unforseen happens, which it usually does.

Or unless my model isn’t perfect, which is guaranteed.

Very enlightening interview with Gavin Cromwell and Inothewayurthinkin.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JVbDEXcW6HA

What a top bloke - no wonder JP and Noreen trust him with the progeny of their top mare.
As you said @Addick Addict , they knew what they had.
All fine with INO after the GC, despite the cut.
Seems like the options are GN ("very tempting") or Punchestown GC.
"More Gold Cups to be won.... he's only 7".
"Jumping sticky last year, improved this season. Last thing you want to do is go to Aintree, give him a fright and put him on the back foot".
Sounds to me like GC leans cautious.
May boil down to whether JP prizes more the Golden Miller or Arkle crowns before he pops his clogs. That will be a very sad day for NH racing in the British Isles - hopefully plans in place for the Green and Gold dynasty to roll on, in some form.

Want to put the know-it-all at work in his or her or their place or just stun your buddies down the boozer with your forensic knowledge of racing?

Look no further than the Bluffers Guide to the 2025 GN - the drop-mic facts as to why each horse in the field will, or will not, win this year's Grand National:

Part 1 (of quite a few):


I AM MAXIMUS

Is the nailed-on Winner because: 

• pedigree says he's even better than Tiger Roll. Both sired by Authorized (whose sons have 3 wins from 4 GN runs) AND the first 3 Damsires of both not only won Group 1s at 8f+ but had offspring that did likewise at 10f+: runners with this combo won 4 GNs from 22 runs (x7 outperformance)
• but, unlike Tiger, he inherited from his mum the "golden" mitochondrial DNA N2a (responsible for energy creation): since 2016, 4 GN winners from 27 runners: x5.7 outperformance)

Has no chance because: 

• no horse has won the GN with topweight for 51 years
• no GN winner had fewer than 3 prior runs in the season for at least 37 years (Max has had 2) 

ROYALE PAGAILLE

Is nailed-on because: 

• 150/1 but trained by Venetia Williams who trained the 100/1 GN jaw-dropper Mon Mome (which you backed, of course)
• he's from the family of Best Mate, Kittys Light (x2 winner over 4 miles and GN5th) and Gaillard Du Mesnil (GN 3rd) and, like them, he has the "golden" mitchondrial DNA N2a (4 of last 8 GN winners: x5.7 outperformance)
• his rare 3rd Damsire Taine was one of only 3 back-to-back winners since WWII of the marathon French Group 1 Prix Du Cadran

Has no chance because:

• he's shite anywhere other than Haydock (5 of 6 wins there, the other at Kempton)
• won't get the trip: yet to make the frame in 6 attempts at 26f+
• not a Spring horse: all 7 wins have come Nov~Jan (14 runs) - never won in any other month (16 attempts) 

NICK ROCKETT

Is nailed-on because: 

• like last GN winner I Am Maximus, won the Bobbyjo Chase in his final prep. Hedgehunter also did the Bobbyjo/GN same season double in 2005 and Rathvinden followed his Bobbyjo win with a GN near-miss (5L 3rd) in 2019. All 4 for Willie Mullins.
• 2nd season chaser: 9 of last 10 GN winners were 1st or 2nd season chasers, from only 28% of GN runners: x3.2 outperformance

Has no chance because: 

• wears black silks: 30 horses with predominantly black silks have run in the last 11 GNs - none has made the first 5 home
• silly fuckers ran him in January's Thyestes. That win put him up 11lbs, giving him 11.08 to shoulder in the GN: none of the 9 horses to attempt the Thyestes & GN same season double has even made the first 5 home at Aintree
• Intense Raffles walloped him in the Irish GN and has a stone in hand of him at the GN weights; Minella Coccooner, who beat him in the Bet365 Gold Cup, has 12lbs in hand

L'HOMME PRESSE

Is nailed-on because: 

• trained by Venetia Williams who trained ..... yadda, yadda, yadda 
• x2 Grade 1 winner over fences, he's very nicely-weighted with GN mark 163, 7lbs below career-high Official Rating and 9lbs below best Racing Post Rating (average of last 11 GN winners = 8lbs below best RPR)
• won January's Cotswold Chase, won by Many Clouds prior to his 2015 GN victory

Has no chance because: 

• will hate the occasion: never raced against more than 11 rivals over hurdles or fences and never beaten more than 8
• won't get the trip: ran out of gas in his only attempt at 26f and pedigree has zero in common with even GN frame-makers: he inherited the mitochondrial DNA G2 (15 GN runners have drawn a total blank since 2013) 

ENVOI ALLEN

Is nailed-on because: 

• x9 Grade 1 winner, career-best chase RPR at furthest trip attempted (3m) 
• will shine over the extended trip: his uncle (Auvergnat) won (and set his career-high RPR) in the La Touche (33.5f XC at Punchestown) in his only attempt at 4m

Has no chance because: 

• much better over shorter: 65% win record at 16~21f, compared to 29% at 24f
• much better in winter months: never made the frame in 5 runs 17 Mar~27 April

TBC, as time permits ....

2nd Forfeit Stage today.

Judging by the betting market, Gentlemansgame, The Real Whacker, Galvin and Trelawne are likely to be scratched.

11 in total taken out today.

Envoi Allen
Inothewayurthinkin
Gentlemansgame
Monty’s Star
The Real Whacker
Galvin
Trelawne
Limerick Lace
Pinkerton
Git Maker
Gericault Roque

By my reckoning, that means 2 of the 5 on GNOR147 (Monbeg Genius, Vanillier, Horantzau d'Airy, Hyland and Celebre d'Allen) are now guaranteed a run (Fontaine Collonges has already been dropped to 143). Not sure what the relative current ORs are among those 5 - looks like they all may still be 147.

Bear in mind Royale Pagaille, who remains in for the moment, must have soft ground and the forecast is dry.

PaddyP17 said:

PeanutsMolloy said:

Starinnaddick said:

PeanutsMolloy said:

Apologies again folks.
Zanahiyr has failed to qualify for the GN as his best is 5th in a 3m+ chase. The stipulation is at least 4th.
Same goes for French Dynamite.
So, 2 of the GNOR147s are indeed already guaranteed a run.

Is Placenet also not qualified? 

Yeap, you're right.

Racing Post card has now caught up with all the withdrawals/eliminations.

Showing Vanillier as 34 but that will depend on relative current ORs vs Monbeg Genius, Horantzau d'Airy, Hyland and Celebre d'Allen. Only Vanillier and Hyland have run since the weights were allotted and both made the frame. Could be down to lots unless 3 more come out.

If down to lots PM, would Vanillier be fine to back without NRNB (at better odds I am assuming) as this is balloting out so you'd get stake back?

Absolutely, he'd likely be a Reserve anyway.