An infection apparently. Depends how quickly he can resume training. 6 weeks to go so could be OK by the big day but JP looks after his horses and I doubt they'll risk him if he's not 100% ready.
A non-respiratory infection so less likely to stop him being ready by 5 April - which would save a re-run of the stats for the others But, if he doesn't get a decent performance in in time, his stats come up short off topweight.
Well, Ilikedwayurthinkin was going nicely enough in perfect position on the rail up front but hit a wall about 4f from home in the 33.5f Eider (PU). Doesn't necessarily mean Inothewayurthinkin or Limerick Lace won't get 34f of course. But, interesting nonetheless.
Nick Rockett wins but Intense Raffles just 0.75L behind and, at the weights, his connections and backers will be delighted. Giving the winner 3lbs today, he'll be in receipt of 12lbs from him on 5 April. Even so, based on his pedigree, my model rates him minor place potential at best at Aintree. Minella Cocooner, who will be 6lbs better off with Nick Rockett on 5 April, ran a nice enough prep in 4th, 8L adrift, though the market reaction is to ease him to 33s. Tapped for toe down the straight, the extra mile will play to his strengths and the run confirms his GN Winning stat profile, according to my model, assuming the GN weights don't rise.
Kandoo Kid looking increasingly like my model's nap.
Senior Chief runs today in a 23f handicap hurdle at Naas at 3.50pm (Rachel on board and I have a sneaking feeling this may determine which of Henry's she rides at Aintree). Of his hurdles mark, he's certainly got a chance (7/1).
Over my Sunday roast, I'll be giving serious thought to taking the 66s about him for the GN. More anon.
Mulling done over a rare roast beef and all the trimmings (Lobster Thermidor for Mrs Molloy), a tactical hedge of a win bet on Senior Chief today is my move. Interesting they're leaving off the cheek pieces.
Difficult to make most of them out from the front, most being caked in mud before disappearing off the left of the screen but he must have, once again, stayed on because he seemed to be plum last of 19 coming into the straight but finished 15L adrift in 9th with all crossing the line. If the intention was a safe spin, mission accomplished. Still some moving parts for the GN, especially now with the possibility of the weights rising 4lbs. Further thoughts on yesterday's Bobbyjo shortly.
Lol, yeah, not too impresive. I thought he's for Ultima?
Not entered at the Festival. De Bromhead believes he's suited to an Aintree GN so one assumes this was his prep - if so, and assuming nothing's amiss, mission accomplished. He'll be drifting for Aintree, simply from the weight of money for the host of fancies, so I'll hopefully make back my lost stake today nabbing him at 66s or higher (for 5 places - essential) IF he makes my team. 66s now but only for 4 places. He's place, rather than winning calibre, and one of several candidates for the 5th member of my team.
RPRs given for yesterday's Bobbyjo, in which Nick Rockett (RPR159; new best by +1) became the 3rd horse to complete a
Thyestes/Bobbyjo double - Homer Wells 2007 (followed up with PU in Silver Birch's GN) and On His Own in 2014 (followed by Short Head 2nd in Lord Windermere's Gold Cup).
It's been mooted that Mullins might supplement NR for the GC but, no matter how much a mission impossible the GN is for him off OR163, he's not laying a glove on GDC.
Close 2nd Intense Raffles notched a career-high RPR160 (+5 on his Irish GN victory and +9 on his GNOR), unsurprisingly boosting his
racing CV to a strong potential to be there or thereabouts on 5 April.
But there are 2 equally-important elements to my model and this GN will be a huge test of its pedigree component (which fared well last year), given that it rates his as consistent with horses that have (at very
best) placed 4th or 5th, 10~20L adrift (a la Anibale Fly).
As mentioned previously, though he has a 139-rated close
relative that won a 4m Hunter Chase, his better class
of relatives, Silviniaco Conti, Class Conti and Ucello Conti had 6 GNs between
them, with a 37L 6th place (by Ucello) their best, despite Silviniaco having a best RPR = GNOR+13 and Class Conti +7.
But he's racing against this year's
opposition, not that of any prior or "typical" GN.
If he's a good thing to make the frame, which he is, are there 3
or 4 horses this year that the model rates overall (by CV and pedigree) higher than him?
Well, we lost one with I Am Maximus being scratched from the race. It's said to be considered a "minor" non-respiratory infection, so hopefully he'll at least be ready to line up on 5 April, with or without a further spin. But the Bobbyjo was his one chance to give his season's form the required confirmation to be a contender as topweight at Aintree, by the model's reckoning, so he won't be re-appearing on my slip.
Assuming Max is declared and the weights stay put, Minella
Cocooner did enough in 4th (8.25L)
yesterday, over what's the bare minimum 26f for him now, to tick his season's form box to have the 2nd strongest stat-profile
in this year's entries - his pedigree features being consistent with the likes of
Balthazar King and Cappa Bleu.
The race turned into a bit
of a sprint finish off the home bend and he was never likely to land a blow. If
it weren't a prep for a bigger prize, Mullins would have been better advised to
force the pace rather than sit off the 2 leaders, who were never headed.
He is at full stretch, GNOR-wise, but his pedigree screams marathon trip and, even conceding 6lbs, my model rates him as likely to get the better of Intense Raffles over 4.25 miles.
But, I have to say, this GN
is looking a bit thin on the ground when it comes to 2nd season chasers that
have winnable-with weights and a pedigree in the vicinity of a decent fit with
recent winners.
Kandoo Kid is the only 2nd season chaser that, off his current weight, ticks my model's CV and pedigree boxes to have Winning
Calibre. Many stattos will object that he's not fulfilled the minimum 3 runs. But that stat is vulnerable. Pleasant Company was beaten a Head by Tiger in 2018 after only 2 runs (both poor) in the season; Rathvinden just once when 5L 3rd a year later. In any event, no stat is sacrosanct. It's an overall compliance with 90%+ of key CV stats that is the model's yardstick for being in the mix at the business end of a GN; and the quality of pedigree that sorts the winner from the placed horses.
But I think we're going to see
a serious challenge from a returning placed horse this year.
If he gets decent ground and has a decent prep,
Galvin is a definite contender to go closer than his 8L 4th last time but it's Vanillier that my model rates as the
strongest challenger from former placed runners.
Blinkers galvanised Tiger Roll in 2019, who went 3 from 3, including his jaw-dropping demolition of the field in the Festival XC and his historic 2nd GN. And they rejuvenated Vanillier last time
out; thumping the field over the Punchestown banks and equalling his best RPR154 (achieved when close 2nd to Corach Rambler in the 2023 GN). He'll be off the same GNOR147 on 5 April and I trust the blinkers will stay on.
Entered in the XC but I'm hoping Gaving Cromwell
takes note of the performance of Delta W, Galvin and Minella Indo last April, when
their Festival XC was abandoned and they headed to Aintree very fresh. If he
skips Cheltenham and heads straight to Aintree, 61 days prior is fine for his
last run.
So, with I Am Maximus OUT, VANILLIER is IN and I've taken the 33s each way (5 places).
As things stand right now, assuming the weights are unchanged, my model's top 3 (in order) are:
As expected, Kandoo Kid entered for the 20f Greatwood Gold Cup handicap at Newbury next Saturday. Will move closer to the sweet spot for the season’s campaign with a safe spin 35 days prior. Iroko could oppose him or could head to Kelso for the Premier Chase. Meetingofthewaters also entered for the Newbury race, Quick Wave at Kelso.
Nick Rockett unchanged at 161 Intense Raffles +5 to 156 (work that one out if you can, having given NR 3lbs and being beaten by 0.75L) Capodanno +1 to 156 Minella Cocooner -2 to 152
Looks like only Fakir D’Oudairies has been scratched
LOL. He was scratched at the same stage last year. He was one of 3 taken out that would have made the cut last year. Not usually that many come out now. It's the post Cheltenham Forfeit Stage that sees them whittled down. Last year, 8 came out at the 2nd Forfeit Stage that would have made the cut.
Depending on relative current marks of those on GNOR147 at the time of Declarations (48 hours before the race), Vanillier will need between 10 and 15 more at 147+ from now to come out. I suspect the cut's going to come in the 147s so it may be down to how they run in final chase preps, if they have one, but he should be OK if he's towards the top of them.
Then there's Reserves once again this year.
But if Mr Incredible keeps him out and plants himself again, a remote control will be going through my TV.
Looks like only Fakir D’Oudairies has been scratched
LOL. He was scratched at the same stage last year. He was one of 3 taken out that would have made the cut last year. Not usually that many come out now. It's the post Cheltenham Forfeit Stage that sees them whittled down. Last year, 8 came out at the 2nd Forfeit Stage that would have made the cut.
Depending on relative current marks of those on GNOR147 at the time of Declarations (48 hours before the race), Vanillier will need between 10 and 15 more at 147+ from now to come out. I suspect the cut's going to come in the 147s so it may be down to how they run in final chase preps, if they have one, but he should be OK if he's towards the top of them.
Then there's Reserves once again this year.
But if Mr Incredible keeps him out and plants himself again, a remote control will be going through my TV.
The much maligned Mr Incredible. That's really harsh. On the remote control and TV.
Harry Skelton provisionally booked for Nicholls Threeunderthrufive with Cobden on Kandoo Kid and three others to be fixed up with Gingell on one of them. Greys have not had a lot of success in the race but Nicholls trained the last one to win Neptune Collonges in 2012.
Having the #1 Racing CV stats in the entries and with so few debut runners of Winning Calibre overall profiles, I've had a win saver on Intense Raffles at 10s today. He's still attracting money and, despite all the hype for Inothewayurthinkin, he's very likely to go off favourite IMHO. If the Pedigree component of the model is right, he places 4th or 5th (assuming a "clean" race) but he's too short now to back e/w and I don't want to take the chance on an outlier or the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune.
As things stand, these are the top ratings by my model by (a) Racing CV
relative to Weight and (b) Pedigree "fit" with winners/near-missers since 2013:
Frame-making Racing CV (assuming no rise in GN
weights):
1 Intense Raffles
2 Kandoo Kid
3 Vanillier
4 (joint) Minella Cocooner, Galvin, Minella Indo (if soft ground)
Winning/near-missing Pedigree:
1 I Am Maximus
2 Kandoo Kid
3 Minella Cocooner
4 (joint) Conflated, Galvin, Zanahiyr, Vanillier
The model's actual ratings are, unsurprisingly, derived
from a combination of these 2 short-lists and currently stand as follows:
Galvin and Vanillier entered for Cheltenham Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase on the 12th March. I'd rather they didn't run this close to GN. Also Stumptown, Minella Crooner and Conflated.
Galvin and Vanillier entered for Cheltenham Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase on the 12th March. I'd rather they didn't run this close to GN. Also Stumptown, Minella Crooner and Conflated.
Agree with you in Vanillier’s case. Would have to run to his mark or risks dropping down the 147s. Galvin could do with the run - would help him if it dries up.
Reportedly JP's pick as his "GN horse" after his fine run behind Inothewayurthinkin in the Mildmay, he has a very interesting damside, sharing his 3rd damsire (Signani) with GN stalwart Saint Are and being linebred meaningfully to Wild Risk and (like One For Arthur and Balko Des Flos) to Mill Reef. Offsetting that, progeny of his sire Cokoriko (including Coko Beach and Fakiera) appear thus far to be stronger up to around 3.5 miles than 4+.
While a new career high (+3) RPR157 would improve his CV, the Premier Chase won't address his lack of chase experience of a large field. 11 is the biggest he's run in and, while he's won in a 21 strong field over hurdles and may well have no problem among 34 on 5 April, the stat for GN winners and near-missers since 2013 is strong: all 19 (including even 1st season novice chaser and fellow 7yo Noble Yeats in fields of 24 and 28) had prior chase experience in fields of 16+.
He does have a stronger damside than Coko Beach (failed GN x3 despite loving the fences) and could well be on the premises at the last but his overall stat-profile likely leaves him short, according to my model.
at Navan (Gr2 chase over 20f): Grangeclare West (presumably won't come over for the Festival - maybe GN bound, related to GN4th Gunner Welburn but isn't significant on my radar screen, though I'd rather he came out to move Vanillier up a place Fil Dor (on paper interesting as he represents the out-performing mitochondrial DNA type N2a but has essentially zero form at 3m so doesn't have the CV stats - difficult to know if Elliott will run him in the GN on spec or to crowd out a rival)
at Kelso (Listed Premier Chase over 23.5f): Iroko (takes on Grey Dawning and 2 lesser rivals - as previously noted)
at Newbury (Greatwood Gold Cup over 20f): Kandoo Kid (close 2nd in this off 12lbs lower on Hvy last year, he loves Newbury [2121 and never beaten by >2L] - a safe spin will suffice for my model but Nicholls will not doubt want a win) Iroko (but pref for Kelso) Meetingofthewaters scratched this morning
at Doncaster (class 2 hurdle over 24.5f): Idas Boy (first run for new connections; winner of the Kilbeggan National last July but sold by Gigginstown after 10th in the Galway Plate - zero interest in him for the GN but presumably bought for the tilt)
at Doncaster (class 2 Grimthorpe Chase over 26f): Twig (interesting pedigree consistent with GN 3rd~4th with some fortune, a win or near-miss on Sat would align his CV with that - however, while not impossible, it's sadly unlikely he'll make the GN cut off OR146)
at Newbury (Veterans chase over 26f): Quick Wave (from the family of 1982 GN winner Grittar, has minor place potential in the GN but, again, unlikely to make the cut off OR146)
Peanuts: when can we expect to see NRNB options? I'm keen to jump on your suggestions but want to learn from last year when I went too early and lost money when those horses didn't run? Ta.
Comments
I Am Maximus a NON RUNNER in the Bobbyjo
Has to be a niggle presumably and, if so, I'm afraid that cooks his stats goose for 5 April.
Cashed out my interest.
Depends how quickly he can resume training.
6 weeks to go so could be OK by the big day but JP looks after his horses and I doubt they'll risk him if he's not 100% ready.
PS Cheers for your comment re my haplotype analysis on the GN Bores forum.
But, if he doesn't get a decent performance in in time, his stats come up short off topweight.
Doesn't necessarily mean Inothewayurthinkin or Limerick Lace won't get 34f of course.
But, interesting nonetheless.
Giving the winner 3lbs today, he'll be in receipt of 12lbs from him on 5 April.
Even so, based on his pedigree, my model rates him minor place potential at best at Aintree.
Minella Cocooner, who will be 6lbs better off with Nick Rockett on 5 April, ran a nice enough prep in 4th, 8L adrift, though the market reaction is to ease him to 33s. Tapped for toe down the straight, the extra mile will play to his strengths and the run confirms his GN Winning stat profile, according to my model, assuming the GN weights don't rise.
Kandoo Kid looking increasingly like my model's nap.
Of his hurdles mark, he's certainly got a chance (7/1).
Over my Sunday roast, I'll be giving serious thought to taking the 66s about him for the GN.
More anon.
Interesting they're leaving off the cheek pieces.
Still some moving parts for the GN, especially now with the possibility of the weights rising 4lbs.
Further thoughts on yesterday's Bobbyjo shortly.
De Bromhead believes he's suited to an Aintree GN so one assumes this was his prep - if so, and assuming nothing's amiss, mission accomplished.
He'll be drifting for Aintree, simply from the weight of money for the host of fancies, so I'll hopefully make back my lost stake today nabbing him at 66s or higher (for 5 places - essential) IF he makes my team. 66s now but only for 4 places.
He's place, rather than winning calibre, and one of several candidates for the 5th member of my team.
RPRs given for yesterday's Bobbyjo, in which Nick Rockett (RPR159; new best by +1) became the 3rd horse to complete a Thyestes/Bobbyjo double - Homer Wells 2007 (followed up with PU in Silver Birch's GN) and On His Own in 2014 (followed by Short Head 2nd in Lord Windermere's Gold Cup).
It's been mooted that Mullins might supplement NR for the GC but, no matter how much a mission impossible the GN is for him off OR163, he's not laying a glove on GDC.
Close 2nd Intense Raffles notched a career-high RPR160 (+5 on his Irish GN victory and +9 on his GNOR), unsurprisingly boosting his racing CV to a strong potential to be there or thereabouts on 5 April.
But there are 2 equally-important elements to my model and this GN will be a huge test of its pedigree component (which fared well last year), given that it rates his as consistent with horses that have (at very best) placed 4th or 5th, 10~20L adrift (a la Anibale Fly).
As mentioned previously, though he has a 139-rated close relative that won a 4m Hunter Chase, his better class of relatives, Silviniaco Conti, Class Conti and Ucello Conti had 6 GNs between them, with a 37L 6th place (by Ucello) their best, despite Silviniaco having a best RPR = GNOR+13 and Class Conti +7.
But he's racing against this year's opposition, not that of any prior or "typical" GN.
If he's a good thing to make the frame, which he is, are there 3 or 4 horses this year that the model rates overall (by CV and pedigree) higher than him?
Well, we lost one with I Am Maximus being scratched from the race. It's said to be considered a "minor" non-respiratory infection, so hopefully he'll at least be ready to line up on 5 April, with or without a further spin. But the Bobbyjo was his one chance to give his season's form the required confirmation to be a contender as topweight at Aintree, by the model's reckoning, so he won't be re-appearing on my slip.
Assuming Max is declared and the weights stay put, Minella Cocooner did enough in 4th (8.25L) yesterday, over what's the bare minimum 26f for him now, to tick his season's form box to have the 2nd strongest stat-profile in this year's entries - his pedigree features being consistent with the likes of Balthazar King and Cappa Bleu.
The race turned into a bit of a sprint finish off the home bend and he was never likely to land a blow. If it weren't a prep for a bigger prize, Mullins would have been better advised to force the pace rather than sit off the 2 leaders, who were never headed.
He is at full stretch, GNOR-wise, but his pedigree screams marathon trip and, even conceding 6lbs, my model rates him as likely to get the better of Intense Raffles over 4.25 miles.
But, I have to say, this GN is looking a bit thin on the ground when it comes to 2nd season chasers that have winnable-with weights and a pedigree in the vicinity of a decent fit with recent winners.
Kandoo Kid is the only 2nd season chaser that, off his current weight, ticks my model's CV and pedigree boxes to have Winning Calibre. Many stattos will object that he's not fulfilled the minimum 3 runs. But that stat is vulnerable. Pleasant Company was beaten a Head by Tiger in 2018 after only 2 runs (both poor) in the season; Rathvinden just once when 5L 3rd a year later. In any event, no stat is sacrosanct. It's an overall compliance with 90%+ of key CV stats that is the model's yardstick for being in the mix at the business end of a GN; and the quality of pedigree that sorts the winner from the placed horses.But I think we're going to see a serious challenge from a returning placed horse this year.
If he gets decent ground and has a decent prep, Galvin is a definite contender to go closer than his 8L 4th last time but it's Vanillier that my model rates as the strongest challenger from former placed runners.
Blinkers galvanised Tiger Roll in 2019, who went 3 from 3, including his jaw-dropping demolition of the field in the Festival XC and his historic 2nd GN. And they rejuvenated Vanillier last time out; thumping the field over the Punchestown banks and equalling his best RPR154 (achieved when close 2nd to Corach Rambler in the 2023 GN). He'll be off the same GNOR147 on 5 April and I trust the blinkers will stay on.
Entered in the XC but I'm hoping Gaving Cromwell takes note of the performance of Delta W, Galvin and Minella Indo last April, when their Festival XC was abandoned and they headed to Aintree very fresh. If he skips Cheltenham and heads straight to Aintree, 61 days prior is fine for his last run.
So, with I Am Maximus OUT, VANILLIER is IN and I've taken the 33s each way (5 places).
As things stand right now, assuming the weights are unchanged, my model's top 3 (in order) are:
Kandoo Kid 25/1
Minella Cocooner 33/1
Vanillier 33/1
I think quite a few at the top will come out.
Iroko could oppose him or could head to Kelso for the Premier Chase.
Meetingofthewaters also entered for the Newbury race, Quick Wave at Kelso.
1st Forfeit Stage tomorrow.
Nick Rockett unchanged at 161
Intense Raffles +5 to 156 (work that one out if you can, having given NR 3lbs and being beaten by 0.75L)
Capodanno +1 to 156
Minella Cocooner -2 to 152
Not usually that many come out now.
It's the post Cheltenham Forfeit Stage that sees them whittled down. Last year, 8 came out at the 2nd Forfeit Stage that would have made the cut.
Depending on relative current marks of those on GNOR147 at the time of Declarations (48 hours before the race), Vanillier will need between 10 and 15 more at 147+ from now to come out.
I suspect the cut's going to come in the 147s so it may be down to how they run in final chase preps, if they have one, but he should be OK if he's towards the top of them.
Then there's Reserves once again this year.
But if Mr Incredible keeps him out and plants himself again, a remote control will be going through my TV.
Greys have not had a lot of success in the race but Nicholls trained the last one to win Neptune Collonges in 2012.
He's still attracting money and, despite all the hype for Inothewayurthinkin, he's very likely to go off favourite IMHO.
If the Pedigree component of the model is right, he places 4th or 5th (assuming a "clean" race) but he's too short now to back e/w and I don't want to take the chance on an outlier or the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune.
As things stand, these are the top ratings by my model by (a) Racing CV relative to Weight and (b) Pedigree "fit" with winners/near-missers since 2013:
Frame-making Racing CV (assuming no rise in GN weights):
1 Intense Raffles
2 Kandoo Kid
3 Vanillier
4 (joint) Minella Cocooner, Galvin, Minella Indo (if soft ground)
Winning/near-missing Pedigree:
1 I Am Maximus
2 Kandoo Kid
3 Minella Cocooner
4 (joint) Conflated, Galvin, Zanahiyr, Vanillier
The model's actual ratings are, unsurprisingly, derived from a combination of these 2 short-lists and currently stand as follows:
1 KANDOO KID
2 MINELLA COCOONER
3 VANILLIER
4 GALVIN
5 INTENSE RAFFLES
Also Stumptown, Minella Crooner and Conflated.
Galvin could do with the run - would help him if it dries up.
Reportedly JP's pick as his "GN horse" after his fine run behind Inothewayurthinkin in the Mildmay, he has a very interesting damside, sharing his 3rd damsire (Signani) with GN stalwart Saint Are and being linebred meaningfully to Wild Risk and (like One For Arthur and Balko Des Flos) to Mill Reef. Offsetting that, progeny of his sire Cokoriko (including Coko Beach and Fakiera) appear thus far to be stronger up to around 3.5 miles than 4+.
While a new career high (+3) RPR157 would improve his CV, the Premier Chase won't address his lack of chase experience of a large field. 11 is the biggest he's run in and, while he's won in a 21 strong field over hurdles and may well have no problem among 34 on 5 April, the stat for GN winners and near-missers since 2013 is strong: all 19 (including even 1st season novice chaser and fellow 7yo Noble Yeats in fields of 24 and 28) had prior chase experience in fields of 16+.
He does have a stronger damside than Coko Beach (failed GN x3 despite loving the fences) and could well be on the premises at the last but his overall stat-profile likely leaves him short, according to my model.
at Navan (Gr2 chase over 20f):
Grangeclare West (presumably won't come over for the Festival - maybe GN bound, related to GN4th Gunner Welburn but isn't significant on my radar screen, though I'd rather he came out to move Vanillier up a place
Fil Dor (on paper interesting as he represents the out-performing mitochondrial DNA type N2a but has essentially zero form at 3m so doesn't have the CV stats - difficult to know if Elliott will run him in the GN on spec or to crowd out a rival)
at Kelso (Listed Premier Chase over 23.5f):
Iroko (takes on Grey Dawning and 2 lesser rivals - as previously noted)
at Newbury (Greatwood Gold Cup over 20f):
Kandoo Kid (close 2nd in this off 12lbs lower on Hvy last year, he loves Newbury [2121 and never beaten by >2L] - a safe spin will suffice for my model but Nicholls will not doubt want a win)
Iroko (but pref for Kelso)
Meetingofthewaters scratched this morning
at Doncaster (class 2 hurdle over 24.5f):
Idas Boy (first run for new connections; winner of the Kilbeggan National last July but sold by Gigginstown after 10th in the Galway Plate - zero interest in him for the GN but presumably bought for the tilt)
at Doncaster (class 2 Grimthorpe Chase over 26f):
Twig (interesting pedigree consistent with GN 3rd~4th with some fortune, a win or near-miss on Sat would align his CV with that - however, while not impossible, it's sadly unlikely he'll make the GN cut off OR146)
at Newbury (Veterans chase over 26f):
Quick Wave (from the family of 1982 GN winner Grittar, has minor place potential in the GN but, again, unlikely to make the cut off OR146)