Whether you agree with Eddie O'Leary or not (FWIW I do) it seems certain that the Festival XC (now reverting to handicap status) will likely be downplayed as a GN trial by connections of higher-rated candidates, perhaps untested at beyond 26f.
The XC/GN connection does, of course, predate its change to a conditions race in 2016 - Silver Birch kicking it all off with a GN/XC near-double in 2007 and Balthazar King doing similar in 2014. But, since then, the size and typical "quality" of the GN field is much changed and, as the race is post-framing of the GN weights, there's every reason to suppose that future winners (even if they have entries) may struggle to make the Aintree cut. Only 4 of the 16 XC runners in 2023 (2024 was abandoned) had marks that would have made the cut for the 2024 GN.
I can't really get my head around why the change in status of one of the most popular spectacles of the Festival but, in any event, it's highly likely IMHO that the XC will henceforth be only of marginal relevance to the GN.
A great shame, not least as yet another potential source of getting on early at decent odds is likely shut down.
Nonetheless, with the Hennessy on Saturday and the Becher Chase a week later, my model's about ready to emerge from hibernation for another tilt.
More anon.
https://www.racingpost.com/news/festivals/cheltenham-festival/eddie-oleary-tiger-roll-would-never-have-won-a-grand-national-if-the-cross-country-was-a-handicap-ax2Yu6R1PqWt/?_sgm_campaign=fcs_ac017b2e36000&_sgm_source=N211008|product&_sgm_action=search&_sgm_term=tiger+roll&_sgm_pinned=false 
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Second best thread of the year (first is Beds's Christmas films!!) started before the year has even started.
As a bet for the race, I'll be siding as last year with COKO BEACH (top weight once again) who ran a fine 2nd to Chambard. Off a 3lb lower mark he has appealing each way value at 14s IMHO.
Seemingly now being aimed at XC-type events (3rd in May's La Touche), he was going well in his first attempt at the Pardubice in October before unshipping 4 out. Both races perhaps confirming the evidence of his GN tilts, that 4 miles is simply beyond this fella.
But, like the Vieux Lion Rouge's of this world, he loves the fences and the Becher trip seems tailor-made. The more rain before Saturday the better but he handles and has won at 28f on GS.
Though last year's winner Chambard (5lbs higher) hasn't looked anything like as good since, the fences can bring out a decent run. But there's plenty of competition elsewhere.
Winner and 3rd in last month's Grand Sefton re-oppose (and are currently the market fav and 2nd fav). Despite effectively meeting on the same terms, the hunter chaser Gaboriot (related to Raz De Maree) could well reverse placings with winner King Turgeon over 7f further, but 11/2's too short for me as an e/w interest.
Looking ahead to April, all eyes will surely be on Ultima-winner and second-season chaser Chianti Classico, and his 25/1 for the GN will obviously take a thump if he take's Saturday's race, despite an ensuing hike in mark. Off his current career-high 157 [that's already 11lbs higher than x2 Ultima-winning Corach Rambler's victorious GN mark] he'd likely carry around 11.00 in April, so wouldn't want to win too easily. But he does represent the progressive quality in the race.
Related to Monty's Pass and GC near-misser Harbour Pilot, the damside of his pedigree ticks the required GN boxes to be in the mix BUT there is an achilles heel in his breeding when it comes to a GN triumph.
Progeny of his sire Shantou have run 40 times at 4 miles+ and are yet to register a win and, though 7 have placed, none have done so in 13 GN runs.
Nonetheless, there are no "red-lines" when it comes to GN stats and if he takes to the fences without clobbering his mark, he will likely have a frame-maker’s profile overall for the big one.
But not since One For Arthur in 2017, has the GN winner run in a prior Becher Chase and only 4 of Saturday's rivals currently have marks that would have made last April's GN cut (and one of those will turn 13 in January). Of course the winner could see a material rating-hike but, other than potentially Chianti Classico, it seems unlikely that April's star will come from this renewal of the Becher.
Coko Beach was scratched at declarations this morning, leaving Chianti Classico as topweight of 12, vying for favouritism with the Grand Sefton winner King Turgeon (no 6yo has ever won the Becher) and 3rd Gaboriot.
Gaboriot will be 3lbs out of the handicap but should relish the test and I'll have a once in a blue moon Win interest at 9/2.
I'll also have a shilling Each Way on Percussion at 20/1, now representing the pick of e/w value IMHO. 6lbs overweight but was a staying on 3rd in this last year (on Heavy, also with 10-02) and the prior year (GS with 10-11). Placed in 2 of his other 3 runs over the fences and dons a visor for the first-time.
AND probably also Arizona Cardinal at 12/1. Strong-finishing winner of last year's Topham (Kandoo Kid 4th, off only 3lbs lower than his Hennessy-winning mark). Closely related to Long Run, it's the 8 year-old's first run after his 2nd wind surgery, so certainly a risk. But he won first-time after his first wind op 2 years ago and Soft ground suits.
Fingers crossed the meeting happens.
When not wrapping pressies or stuffing the bird, I've been running the slide rule with Aintree in mind over the declared runners for Friday's Welsh GN at Chepstow and, especially relevant in recent years, the Paddy Power Handicap at Leopardstown.
As we know, the Chepstow marathon is not the force of old as a pointer to Aintree success.
In the 21 renewals from Rhyme n Reason's double in 1988 to Mon Mome's 2009 Aintree shock, 7 GN winners had previously run creditably (at least) in a Welsh GN. They also included Miinnehoma (3rd at Chepstow), Earth Summit (another same-season double-doer), Bindaree (3rd), Hedgehunter (3rd) and Silver Birch (previous WN winner).
With more emphasis in the GN now on speed we've seen no such GN winners since, though stamina demands continue to make the Chepstow showpiece potentially relevant for frame-making at Aintree.
Of the 25 GN runners since 2013 (5.9% of GN fields) that had previously run in a Welsh GN, 5 made the first 5 home (9.1% of frame-makers) - Cappa Bleu & Teaforthree (2013) and Monbeg Dude (2015) going close (2nd or 3rd <10L) before Irish domination took hold. Since then only Milansbar (a remote 5th in 2018) and Irish-trained The Big Dog (arguably a fortuitous 5th in 2023) have obliged each-way punters.
Indeed, reviewing this year's declarations for Chepstow, it's 2 of the Irish runners (both Gordon Elliott trained) that catch my eye as the only potential GN contenders, though both need a strong showing over the 30f trip to earn a hike in mark to make the GN cut, and to strengthen their CVs from my model's perspective.
STUZZIKINI (16/1) saw off some useful rivals in November's 24f Troytown (strongly-finishing and in a fast-time). He'll run off a career-high mark on Friday and with 11-04 (less any claim) but has an unusually interesting pedigree from a GN perspective.
Specifically, his Sire and Damsires 1, 2 & 3 each were G1 winners themselves and have G1 winners among their progeny - a trait shared by few past GN runners but these include Rare Bob (GN5th), Balthazar King (2nd), Tiger Roll (x2 wins), I Am Maximus (win) and Kitty's Light (5th).
But add a measure of linebreeding across the pedigree to the influential Wild Risk, which Stuzzikini also has, and that list shrinks to just 2 GN runners in the past 11 renewals - Tiger Roll and I Am Maximus.
A sound jumper with a win over the furthest he's attempted (26f), a marathon trip could be right up his street and, with form on decent and heavy ground, assuming he makes the journey over the 6yo is my Chepstow nap (3 of the last 8 WGN winners were 6yo).
PS - cut to 12s this pm
His more fancied stablemate Where It All Began (7/1), half brother to Rathvinden and by Yeats (sire of Noble Yeats, of course), is similarly interesting both for Friday and potentially a GN tilt. But off OR134 he'd have to seriously impress the handicapper to enter April's equations.
He ran creditably and unluckily when 4th in the Kim Muir but jumped poorly in April's Irish GN, though plugged on. This will be his seasonal bow, which doesn't bode well for Welsh GN success (last 22 winners had all raced <50 days prior). One to watch.
As regards others, Galia Des Liteaux, now 4lbs lower than when a gallant 8th at Aintree, ran creditably in the Hennessy and should go well, but 7/1 doesn't float my boat.
Frankly, I've never been a fan of Chepstow favourite Monbeg Genius (11/2), and objectively his pedigree just doesn't jive with Aintree success, according to my model. Scoring on Friday won't change that, of course.
I'll look to add another each-way Chepstow interest nearer Friday.
Thoughts on the Paddy Power from a GN perspective to come ......
Added another unexposed 6yo to my Chepstow each-way team tomorrow, nipping in for the 25/1 early this morning for ATLANTA BRAVE.
A maiden over fences (has a hurdles win at Chepstow, so appears to handle the undulations) but has notched his best chase form over the furthest trip attempted (26f) when just pipped over Newbury's stiff jumps by Surrey Quest a year ago (off 5lb higher mark, SQ went on to lose by a nose to Macdermott in last April's Scottish GN and recently went close again off 9lbs higher).
Like Stuzzikini, Atlanta Brave has a pedigree that points to stamina likely being his forte and he'll have 10-03 on his back tomorrow, with Welsh GN-winning jockey Adam Wedge piloting for the first time. Notably, dons first-time cheekpieces.
Close 4th in his last spin 33 days ago ticks a couple more boxes.
The race has become a GN trial of choice for connections of many progressive Irish 1st and 2nd season chasers (especially JP) and with good reason:
Little wonder then that, with Irish domination of the GN, the PP Hdcp has come to represent a key trial and punters' pointer for Aintree; to 2 of the last 4 GN winners (Minella Times and Noble Yeats) and 4 other frame-makers since 2016 (Gilgamboa, Cause Of Causes, Anibale Fly and Farclas) - all of whom had run (most of them strongly) in the preceding PP.
All bar Farclas and Noble Yeats were JP's runners and, as a measure of his view of the race's significance, he purchased Meetingofthewaters (GN 7th) after his PP success last year and Enjoy D'Allen (GN UR) not long after his 3rd at Leopardstown in 2021.
So, especially in search of early value, the PP is arguably the most important GN pointer prior to the weights-framing in February, though we should now note that Minella Times (off Irish OR136 at Leopardstown, where he was a close 2nd, and 146 at Aintree) would not have made the GN cut if the reduced field size had been in effect in 2021.
As with putting my model's slide-rule over the Welsh GN field, I'm principally considering here the strength of pedigrees of runners (with a potentially workable mark) in close comparison with key aspects of those of GN winners and near-missers since 2013.
As a brief digression, pedigrees have been the main focus of the evolution of my model since April, in search of a reason for (apparent outlier) Minella Indo's strong run. After a humongous amount of research on a tentatively-explored dimension previously - breeding patterns of the sires of GN winners and frame-makers - I'm hopeful that I've isolated some key factors particularly in the male descent from Northern Dancer (ubiquitous in thoroughbred pedigrees, as you probably know, and most famously sire of Sadlers Wells) that may generate stamina-at-speed synergies with the maternal families of GN stars.
Interestingly and reassuringly, the results not only reconcile Minella Indo and some other previously not-fully reconciled frame-makers (Gilgamboa, Shutthefrontdoor and The Big Dog) but underscore the GN prowess of, specifically, Tiger Roll, I Am Maximus, One For Arthur, Rule The World, Balthazar King, Cause Of Causes, Delta Work, Saint Are, Cappa Bleu and Magic Of Light.
Of course, pedigrees guarantee precisely nothing in horse racing. For every Denman there's a moderate full sibling (Silverburn) and, in any event, they're only half the equation for my model's reckoning. But, with an increasing premium on identifying early value, pedigrees have become a useful early filter for the model, proving its worth last year when prompting me to take a speculative GN interest in I Am Maximus prior to his impressive Bobbyjo victory.
As for tomorrow's runners, their CV stat-profile will also have to come up to scratch, as did his. A win or near-miss tomorrow will obviously help (and probably secure a berth for April), but there's time yet for polishing the CV, depending on engagements.
On pedigree alone, there are 3 (at Irish OR 138 and upwards) that catch my eye in tomorrow's Paddy Power as potential contenders for Aintree.
At the head of the weights, the well-fancied Nick Rockett and Meetingofthewaters (7th last April as a 7yo, though he didn't appear to get home) have both the current marks to make the GN cut and the pedigrees to be Aintree frame-making contenders, though most likely limited to strong places at best. I'm looking for GN winning-calibre pedigrees, certainly at this stage, and there is 1 on show tomorrow that, in fact, has a GN-starred pedigree to rival those of Tiger Roll and I Am Maximus: SPANISH HARLEM
A Euro360k purchase as a 4yo from France, Willie Mullins has been in no hurry with him - Paul Townend riding him "tenderly" when close 3rd behind Inothewayurthinkin over hurdles as a novice and, showing a tendency for sketchy jumping, he was piloted very patiently again by Townend in last April's Scottish GN, when he finished a never-nearer 8L 6th (carrying my shilling).
Still a maiden after 5 chases and with an Irish OR of just 138, he obviously needs to up that materially to have the chance of a tilt at the GN. A win tomorrow should do it and, though 3 miles on Gd/Y could be sharper than ideal, he's not been obviously out-paced over shorter trips.
It typically also takes more than a sliver of good fortune to take this race but, in the event that he and Sean O'Keeffe get it, I have e/w and win bets on him as a hedge for a GN interest that I would definitely take should they score.
His pedigree screams marathon trip:
But he's got work to do before mid-February or all of this is moot.
Meanwhile, happy Boxing Day and COYR.
Stuzzikini and former winner Iwilldoit also attracting interest at 12s.
Should be a belter.
Quoted 25s for the GN but he's not for me. Pedigree suggests minor place potential at best by my model's reckoning.
Nick Rockett did his GN CV no harm off a career-high 150, with a nice 4th (9L) - every chance coming off the bend but proving a bit one-paced at the trip and on the ground.
Also now 25s for Aintree, he could make my team depending on allotted weight but I'm keeping my powder dry for the timebeing.
Of the others with marks likely within range for Aintree, Galway-Plate winner Pinkerton (3rd 9L today) also doesn't shape up for a GN, pedigree-wise, and I imagine Willie and JP will be content with a safe spin in 14th for Meetingofthewaters off 149. A couple of lbs off shouldn't cost him a berth at Aintree for another tilt.
Spanish Harlem (25L 13th) found it happening too quickly but ran respectably enough in mid div. A 6yo right now, he's one for Fairyhouse in the spring, one would think (can't remember the rules but, as a maiden, he might still qualify for the NH Chase). Aintree, maybe another year.
Shame that Stuzzikini was scratched at Chepstow. Still time to add the extra 6lbs or so to give him an Aintree option. Assuming all's well, I imagine the Thyestes may beckon in a month's time.
Will be interesting to see if Iwilldoit is given a GN entry. A great run today after a 314 day break.
We know stamina is his forte but he will turn 12 in 5 days and, while today showed he doesn't need deep-ground, he'd certainly want it as testing as possible at Aintree.
And with the upgrade in quality of the Aintree marathon, perhaps no surprise.
I Am Maximus makes his racecourse return after GN glory and, with a GN pedigree matched only by Tiger Roll, he'll have every chance (according to my model) of following him into the hallowed hall of back-to-back winners.
He does have work to do on the track prior to April - as Tiger did, successfully so - but he doesn't have to do it today and, at 25s, the market reckons he won't. I wouldn't disagree given the ground though even dear old Synchronised took this race on Good ground back in 2011. JP then decided to try for the double and, famously, he did stay on up The Hill to take the first stage before utter disaster struck at Aintree.
Even if Max were to go close today, connections have previously stated they'll resist a GC bid in preference for the GN. Indeed, with only a 3 week gap this year, and given the changing character of the GN, it should be a no-no for any genuine GN hopeful to take in the Festival this March IMHO (with the change to handicap status, I imagine we'll not see many of them in the XC either).
Inothewayurthinkin, with JPs white-cap bearer Fact To File, is a fancied most likely to give the favourite a race today. A full brother to Limerick Lace, who was not disgraced in 10th last April having been badly interfered with at the first Canal Turn (evidently unsettled but kept on gamely), he seems a likely member of JP's ever-strengthening team for the big one unless he were to persuade them today to give him a crack at the GC. My model's reckoning of his pedigree remains positive as a GN place contender, though well short of winning calibre.
Minella Cocooner is the rag but will certainly not be so at Aintree, if he lines up. While not up at quite the heights of Max and Tiger, his breeding is winning calibre for a GN, also evidenced by his fine 3rd in the Irish GN under topweight and Whitbread victory shortly thereafter (the form of which is looking decent).
To make my GN team, he too has confirmatory work to do on the track this season and it wouldn't hurt if, being outclassed today, he gets a measure of relief from his career-high OR158.
Should be a fascinating race.
In the circs, it seems a tad excessive to me that he's been pushed out to 20s by PP for the GN. He was beaten 31L in this last year, having won a G1 4 weeks earlier.
Today was surely principally designed to blow away the cobwebs after 8 months off.
Shall I look this gift horse in the mouth? Some mulling to be done but a trading pozzy on Betfair's the better route methinks.
Clearly he has work to do but, unless he's got an injury, which didn't appear to be the case, I wouldn't be remotely bothered about him being pulled up a mile from home.
I imagine the Bobbyjo (once again) is planned as his final prep but no doubt he'll make another appearance prior to that.
Otherwise, all panned out very predictably in the race - nothing landing a glove over 3 miles on the GC double Champion.
Minella Cocooner travelled and jumped nicely enough before the relative deficiency of gears at the trip and in this company inevitably became apparent.
A bad one clearly. Very sad - hopefully he'll at least have a future off the course though it's not always possible to save them.
Tendons are such a nightmare for owners. I had 2 of mine have their career's finished before they'd hardly begun.
One (Ironman Muldoon) was a full bro to Royal Athlete. Won on his debut and then promptly did a tendon on the gallops. Had the stem cell treatment but was never the same horse.
Found him a nice retirement home and he went on to win the Racehorse to Riding Horse title in 2009.
Such a lovely horse but sadly no longer with us.
Really feel for Chianti's owners - so much promise. But that's National Hunt racing.
Back to biz.
I see Inothewayurthinkin has been pushed out to 33s for Aintree by Bob's mob.
Looked like a perfectly respectable run to me, despite some early sketchy jumps.
Quickish ground over 24f and 15L behind Galopin Des Champs - I wouldn't be all that disappointed if I were JP.
Back in to 16s with PP, 12s elsewhere.
Doesn't need to set a new career best, as Tiger did prior to his 2nd GN win, but he certainly needs to produce a decent run prior to Aintree to tick the boxes to make my team.
OR169 limits chase options but, if last season's campaign is a guide, next up could be the PP Gold Cup in early Feb. Then the Bobbyo.
We'll see.
Minella Indo has another outing and I wouldn't be surprised if it's his last before Aintree, given how well he ran last April after an unintended 120 day break.
If he gets to carry not much above 11 stone, he's a strong candidate to make the frame again, even at the age of 12.
Stablemate and favourite for the race, Montys Star has had an impressive start to his chasing career.
It's well known he's a half-brother to Monalee but, of more note if he's given a GN entry, he's also closely related to Mr Incredible (Mr I's 3rd dam, Boreen Belle is Monty's maternal grandmother).
Boreen Belle was by Group 2 winner and hurdler Boreen, notable as a damsire of stayers - 2 winners at 4m (Boraceva and A Piece of Cake) and Royal Emperor, beaten 0.5L in the Scottish National.
By the strong sire Walk In The Park, Montys Star (unexposed beyond 25f) may well share Mr Incredible's undoubted stamina. Let's hope he's skipped the fruitcake gene.
That's the max my model rates him (on current CV) that gives him his winning chance in April.
Whether the British handicapper will concur is another matter - chances are he'll cop the Irish premium, but even if so it would only take a decent post-weights prep to compensate. I wonder if he'll be Bobbyjo bound, as Willie's serious GN candidates typically are?
Strong pedigree profile (as yet the 2nd best to Max of the possible runners I've put the slide rule over), sharing the same female family (thus mitochondrial DNA) as Hedgehunter, closely related to an old fav of mine Abolitionist and with the rarely-seen Electric (sire of the talented but ill-fated Princeful) among his damsires, puts him very near the centre of my radar screen.
Taking a patient approach, with the 2026 GC a possible target.
Obviously the Irish Trials have assumed more importance in recent times but, nonetheless, it's a shame to lose a competitive staying handicap, of which the winner might have had a sniff of lining for the big one.