Grand National 2025

MrOneLung

seriously, where else would you find dna analysis for picking your once a year bet on the national? 

Chapeau Peanuts

CAFCsayer

Gone iroko win and kandoo kid and vaniller ew... probably going to regret not taking skybet 5 places, but betfair much better odds and a quarter as opposed to fifth of the odds for 4 places

PeanutsMolloy

PaddyP17 said:

PeanutsMolloy said:

Used up my Bet365 free bets with 2 more Bet Builder Top 10 Finish wagers:

• the model's next best in the ratings below Intense Raffles, aside from Minella Indo: Stumptown, Hyland, Twig, Monbeg Genius at 110/1
• a flyer on 2 apparent no-hopers of Gordon Elliott but with interesting pedigrees: Fil Dor and Conflated, also with Vanillier and Minella Cocooner at 170/1

All the best everyone.

Apologies in advance if you've followed my model and this is the year it crashes and burns (it's going to happen at some point).

Above all, let's hope it's a great race with no injuries to horse or jockey.

Enjoy!!

This thread is fascinating year on year. Absolutely brilliant work Peanuts and hey, if the fact the first (truly) Good ground race since the material fence changes and necessary model tweaking means things go tits up, it provides yet more data which is only good.

However, the market broadly agrees with you - a market that has a couple of not-egregious outliers it seems (e.g. Hewick no cigar, or I Am Maximus with ground concerns) - so I'm keeping the faith!

Untold thanks, as ever.

Cheers @PaddyP17
Much appreciated.
All the best.

PeanutsMolloy

Always fascinating to see where the money's going on the morning; and it can change late (I think it may today).
I still think Max won't go off favourite but Hewick isn't the main attraction. Clearly that's been Perceval this morning, with Stumptown also drawing support.
I fancy they'll come for Hewick this pm as the sun continues to beat down.
Seems like punters have decided that Rachel's pick must be the HdB yard's #1 - Senior Chief drifting and can be backed now at 50/1.
I fancy both to go well but the younger legs to prevail.
Of the bigger prices, Elliott's steeds, Three Card Brag, Duffle Coat and Coko Beach have fans this morning. Back down to a sensible mark, Coko Beach should go well as he loves the fences. Will he get home this time? Not convinced. 

Clem_Snide

Probably already been said, but Bet Fred (via the app) are paying 7 places on e/w bets.

PeanutsMolloy

I see Ruby agrees with me that Bravemansgame is overpriced at 50/1 and he's picked him as his value e/w bet.
If you fancy him to outrun his price (as I do - not my model but my hooter), for the reasons I set out earlier, with today's liquidity he's now available on the Betfair Exchange for a Top 8 finish at 6.0. 
Hardly stellar, but reasonable.

stackitsteve

Beauport and Stumptown for me.

good luck all.

PeanutsMolloy

I'm officially shocked.
Max will almost certainly go off favourite.

Please give us a first time start.
Good luck all.

PeanutsMolloy

No, new fav is Iroko

StarryNight

StarryNight said:

Percy will fall

as I've predicted

PeanutsMolloy

1 Nick Rockett wins - fucking amazing - highest winning mark (163) for God knows how long
2 I Am Maximus - so unlucky - another peach of a ride, but well held. Just done by topweight and maybe missing that final prep
3 Grangeclare West
4 Iroko
5 Meetingofthewaters
6 Senior Chief
7 Minella Cocooner
8 Hewick

That Group B of Mullins main fancies not only finished but came 1,2,5,7. AND he had the 3rd!!!

Mullins is invincible.
He's in tears with his son riding the winner.
Fantastic.

PeanutsMolloy

16 finishers - the rest

9 Minella Indo
10 Twig
11 Three Card Brag
12 Beauport (prominent for a long way but didn't get home)
13 Horantzau d'Airy
14 Vanillier (not sure what happened, never commented on)
15 Bravemansgame (ran a brilliant race, just behind the leaders but totally emptied after the 2nd last)
16 Chantry House

Perceval Legallois - Fell first circuit
Kandoo Kid - Fell second circuit, mid div
Intense Raffles - PU never looked happy on the ground, dropped out early
Stumptown jumped badly

Big_Bob

Think Grangeclare West would have won had he not made that shuddering mistake at the last Peanuts?

StarryNight

I hope those that fell are ok, Broadway Boy's fall looked bad.

I had all first 5 except Grangeclose. Yay about Group B bet! 

PeanutsMolloy

Courtesy of 2 places and my Group B bet, I've scored an 18% profit.
Obviously disappointed not to be closer than 4th but 3 of my model's top 5 made the first 7.
A flat tyre rather than a blown engine.

Nick Rockett had a strong place potential pedigree, according to my model, but carrying that weight was huge outlier.
Max has the best pedigree in the race but that season's form stat (just as for the placed horses last year) needs a tweak.
Iroko stayed on and definitely got the trip, as did Grangeclare West (really impressive) but Minella Cocooner didn't quite get home after making a few jumping mistakes.
Senior Chief ran a blinder, always handy - just outclassed. 


Will put a cold towel round my head over the next few days and rewatch the race to see quite what happened to Vanillier. That was a disappointment but possibly he got caught up in trouble at the back.

Sorry to miss the winner Chaps. Hope you had 6 places and lumped on the Group B bet or were simply a genius and backed The Rockett.
Incredible.

StarryNight

I hear something's the matter with Cocooner's saddle. Too bad, my bigger money was on him.

PeanutsMolloy

Big_Bob said:

Think Grangeclare West would have won had he not made that shuddering mistake at the last Peanuts?

Can't disagree - he was closing on the front pair. Incredible given how hard he hit it.

LenGlover

Shame Kandoo Kid fell but Iroko and Senior Chief did their stuff as did the Minellas on the betbuilders.

Thanks @PeanutsMolloy always fascinating following the thread.

PeanutsMolloy

StarryNight said:

I hear something the matter with Cocooner's saddle. Too bad, my bigger money was on him.

Interesting, he did make some mistakes so could have caused the saddle to slip a little or something.

PeanutsMolloy

StarryNight said:

I hope those that fell are ok, Broadway Boy's fall looked bad.

I had all first 5 except Grangeclose. Yay about Group B bet! 

Great stuff @StarryNight
Many congrats - bevvies on you !! 
Nice one.

Absolutely agree re BBoy.
Celebre ran an absolute blinder for a 13yo. He loves it there but stopped very quickly.
Hope the old boy's OK.

PeanutsMolloy

LenGlover said:

Shame Kandoo Kid fell but Iroko and Senior Chief did their stuff as did the Minellas on the betbuilders.

Thanks @PeanutsMolloy always fascinating following the thread.

Cheers Len.
Much appreciated.
We'll hammer it properly next year.

Athletico Charlton

I had followed 3 of your 5 top choices Peanuts.  Checked at The Valley to see the 2 I didn't follow were the 2 that places.. 🙆.
Then realised Group B had come in and I am £450 richer.  Fabulous.  Thanks Peanuts.
Will give £50 to the Upbeats.

philcafc

Made a little with an each way return on Senior Chief. Cheers Peanuts.

North Lower Neil

My eldest picked the winner, the rest of us nowhere - and of course she's claimed the full payout including my stake money!  

Worth it to see her happy face as it won!

StarryNight

PeanutsMolloy said:

StarryNight said:

I hope those that fell are ok, Broadway Boy's fall looked bad.

I had all first 5 except Grangeclose. Yay about Group B bet! 

Great stuff @StarryNight
Many congrats - bevvies on you !! 
Nice one.

Thank you, PM, though only a small return on Iroko as I didn't believe in him much, same with MOTW. I did stick with Max for sentimental reasons and not about the horse as such - our very loved cat Maximus has passed 2 years ago and I just had to bet on the horse last year, and this year I thought I should continue just as well, in spite the weather, ground and weight. Paid off. And Nick was one of my first bets so stuck with that one as well. I was sort of accidentally lucky.

kinveachyaddick

 Not a good look for the National when the leader falls like that. Fearing the worst 

PeanutsMolloy

Athletico Charlton said:

I had followed 3 of your 5 top choices Peanuts.  Checked at The Valley to see the 2 I didn't follow were the 2 that places.. 🙆.
Then realised Group B had come in and I am £450 richer.  Fabulous.  Thanks Peanuts.
Will give £50 to the Upbeats.

Cheers @Athletico Charlton
That Group B was an absolute licence to print money!! And a stake saver!!
Well done for grabbing it and Top Man re the Upbeats.

PeanutsMolloy

North Lower Neil said:

My eldest picked the winner, the rest of us nowhere - and of course she's claimed the full payout including my stake money!  

Worth it to see her happy face as it won!

Brilliant.
Can you show her the entries next January and tip us the wink? 
All the best. 

Clem_Snide

Made a grand total of £1 profit with places for Minella and Senior Chief What to spend it on 🤔

PeanutsMolloy

StarryNight said:

PeanutsMolloy said:

StarryNight said:

I hope those that fell are ok, Broadway Boy's fall looked bad.

I had all first 5 except Grangeclose. Yay about Group B bet! 

Great stuff @StarryNight
Many congrats - bevvies on you !! 
Nice one.

Thank you, PM, though only small return on Iroko as I didn't believe in him much, same with MOTW. I did stick with Max for sentimental reasons and not about the horse as such - our very loved cat Maximus has passed 2 years ago and I just had to bet on the horse last year, and this year I thought I should continue just as well, in spite the weather, ground and weight. Paid off. And Nick was one of my first bets so stuck with that one as well. I was sort of accidentally lucky.

Cheers @StarryNight
That's a nice remembrance for your cat. 
But again, major congratulations on the 1-2 (and the 4th and 5th!). Fantastic stuff.

The pedigree piece of my model fared pretty well, as it did last year.
The Rockett had a pedigree fit with a strong placer (5~10L) but that weight was a major no-no with his Racing CV.
Max had the strongest breeding for it this year, as last year when he was my model's strong fancy pre-Bobbyjo, but the interrupted prep and indifferent form beforehand failed too many boxes on his Racing CV.
Amazing that the first 3 were all rated 163+ with 11-08+.
So clearly more work, again, on the Racing CV stats.
Grangeclare West is the big outlier from my model's overall perspective - OK-ish racing CV but my model never spotted in his breeding that ability to see out the trip so strongly.
Will delve deep into his pedigree to try to find the key.

PS Our current dog is called Twiggy but thankfully limited the wager on Twig, demanded by Mrs Molloy, to a Fiver e/w (she has no idea I bet rather more than that on my model's picks  .

Enjoy the winnings Starry.