I don't think so. We'll find out I guess. He sweated up a lot before the start - maybe too long since a proper race - and the ground didn't help (much softer than GS). But it was a poor run - he's performed on Soft even if he's better on better ground. Just needed to be competitive today but, sadly, he hasn't ticked the boxes, so doesn't make my model's top 5.
Thanks for that @Starinnaddick That's a shame. I noticed on replay O'Connor had to slam the brakes on hard when nearly following Vanillier off the course, colliding with Stumptown. May be did it then and maybe that's when Stumptown's saddle got a little shifted.
5 runners in the Gold Cup with GN entries and while none, according to my model, have the pedigree to win a GN, there's 1 for whom a vaguely-realistic, competitive run tomorrow could put him in the picture to make the frame at Aintree:
THE REAL WHACKER - would need to at least match his career-high chase RPR163 to do so, set 2 years ago when winning the Brown Advisory.
Obviously well short of the grade to challenge GDC and the best 3 milers (he PU'd in last year's GC, the furthest trip he's attempted), the way he's finished other chases at 3m+ (particularly his staying-on up The Hill close 2nd in last season's Cotswold Chase) and, importantly, his pedigree suggest an extended (even a marathon) trip should suit.
by Mahler, sire of The Big Dog (GN5th), his damsire Witness Box was sire of Monbeg Dude (GN3rd), x2 Scottish GN winner Godsmejudge and 4 mile winner Take The Stand and damsire of dour stayer Mister Fogpatches; his 2nd damsire Anshan was damsire of Minella Times and sired McKelvey (close GN2nd) and 3rd damsire Fidel damsired 2 winners at 29~30f;
meaningfully linebred to Tudor Minstrel, like Auroras Encore, Pineau De Re, One For Arthur, Magic Of Light and Noble Yeats (36.4% of winners since 2013 from just 4.2% of fields [18 runners]);
like Kandoo Kid, he represents Family 1, with the out-performing mitochondrialDNA N2a (4 GN winners [36.4%] from 11.9% of runners)
It's a tall order to show best form when so overmatched in a Gold Cup (40/1) but, should he do so, by my model's calculations the 9 yo (currently 66/1 for the GN) would join Iroko as the joint 4th best rated for the GN.
Gentlemansgame also has pedigree consistent with strong place potential in a GN but he'd need to win or go close tomorrow to have the requisite racing CV and, in the unlikely event he did so, would have little recovery time for a modern GN just 22 days later.
Similarly, Inothewayurthinkin and Montys Star would need to win or go close in the GC to enter the equation as minor place potential for the GN but obviously the same inadequate recovery time applies - with the GC their target, neither are certain to line up on 5 April.
Royale Pagaille, who also represents mtDNA N2a, simply doesn't have the CV for the 11.09 he'd shoulder in the GN.
I hadn't realised Galvin was taken away in a horse ambulance, as you presumably noticed @Starinnaddick
Reassuring news for his well-being at least from Elliott: "Galvin had a haematomma on his knee but he was x-rayed and everything was good. He's on his way home now."
I hadn't realised Galvin was taken away in a horse ambulance, as you presumably noticed @Starinnaddick
Reassuring news for his well-being at least from Elliott: "Galvin had a haematomma on his knee but he was x-rayed and everything was good. He's on his way home now."
The vet on duty said he was lame on his right fore so good news.
I hadn't realised Galvin was taken away in a horse ambulance, as you presumably noticed @Starinnaddick
Reassuring news for his well-being at least from Elliott: "Galvin had a haematomma on his knee but he was x-rayed and everything was good. He's on his way home now."
The vet on duty said he was lame on his right fore so good news.
Indeed. A Haematomma fits with a thwack - he ran straight into Stumptown on his outside as the latter chucked a sharp left to avoid following Vanillier. Vanillier was only given an RPR of 146 for his run, which totally disregards the jockey fucking it up. Much closer to matching his career-best 154 in my book, maybe152, which would rate him 2L adrift of Stumptown rather than the actual 8L - that looks fair to me. What’s clear as day is that nothing was finishing faster than Vanillier in that race. Bodes very well if he makes the cut and keeps the blinkers.
I hadn't realised Galvin was taken away in a horse ambulance, as you presumably noticed @Starinnaddick
Reassuring news for his well-being at least from Elliott: "Galvin had a haematomma on his knee but he was x-rayed and everything was good. He's on his way home now."
The vet on duty said he was lame on his right fore so good news.
Indeed. A Haematomma fits with a thwack - he ran straight into Stumptown on his outside as the latter chucked a sharp left to avoid following Vanillier. Vanillier was only given an RPR of 146 for his run, which totally disregards the jockey fucking it up. Much closer to matching his career-best 154 in my book, maybe152, which would rate him 2L adrift of Stumptown rather than the actual 8L - that looks fair to me. What’s clear as day is that nothing was finishing faster than Vanillier in that race. Bodes very well if he makes the cut and keeps the blinkers.
Glad to see the Racing Post geezers are Lifers. Vanillier's RPR for Wednesday's strong but unlucky run in the XC upgraded to 152
Obviously conditions of the race have changed but the last 7 year old to win the GN was Noble Yeats who I doubt would have kept the race under the current whip rules. He was the first 7 year old to win since 1940 and I have an idea JP will not run the Gold Cup winner.
JP looks after his horses as well as any owner but I think he'll take the advice of Gavin Cromwell (who's also known for doing right by the horses in his care) on how Inothewayurthinkin has taken the race. He won it very convincingly and, despite just 22 days to recover, I suspect we'll hear he's come out of it well and will be ready to line up at Aintree. If so, could go one of 2 ways:
they take advantage of just 11-05 to carry at Aintree, as he's certain to be topweight next year.
or they may just think he's so good, they should forget the GN altogether for the time-being and target multiple Gold Cups.
Very interesting summary PM. Incidentally what weight do you think he would be given if the handicapper could reframe the weights?
RPR 182 awarded for that win today. Who could argue with that? A decisive win, even allowing for GDC not fully firing. I’d say his mark now would be at least a stone higher than his GNOR160. Best guess 177. I have a feeling they’ll scratch him and aim to produce the next GC superstar.
The last of the preps will be Hewick’s, who runs in a 22f hurdle at Thurles tomorrow. Midland National day tomorrow and a belter it should be, but sadly irrelevant to the real thing.
Prior to 2021, my
model's GN selections would have been based 95% on Racing CVs, relative to weight (just the presence or not of Wild Risk on the damside being the sole pedigree consideration). Any horse passing
the threshold of < 3 fails of its 20 or so tests would be considered a
potential winner.
From 2006 to 2018, there were typically 4~6 that met the standard out of the 40 runners and, with the race and price opportunities of old,
these were generally all backable each way, leaving a nice return profile. In olden times, with 1/4 odds for 5 or more places as standard and scaled bets, 1 place would equal breakeven. But those days are long gone.
Worse, in 2018, there
were 9 that met the standard and one of them was Tiger Roll, whose final prep (the Festival XC)
confirmed his GN winning Racing CV. Naturally, it also sent his odds crashing.
They also included
Bless The Wings, who ran in the Irish GN on desperate ground just 12 days prior
to Aintree.
So, unable to back all 9
e/w, I decided to give both of these the swerve. They finished 1st and 3rd (40/1) and my best bet was placed 5th.
On price grounds, I
also gave Tiger the swerve in 2019, again despite the model selecting him as a potential winner – surely no horse
could do a Red Rum these days I stupidly presumed.
Duly pissed off, when
Covid produced a blank year and a lot of research was feasible, I decided I had to employ an additional component
and pre-filter to the Racing CV, so as to take early odds with confidence and,
if it became necessary eventually to give a runner the swerve on price, at
least I would have some statistical basis for so doing.
So I set about considering
whether there were statistically verifiable and logical traits in common about
the pedigrees of modern GN winners and frame-makers.
Indeed, there were
and are. And, with evolution, the Pedigree Component of my model now considers how many of
14 traits (each tested for meaningful GN outperformance v representation) are present in a
runner’s pedigree. 3 of these traits relate to its sire, 6 to its damside and 5 to
linebreeding to key stallions and mares.
To give you an idea: Tiger Roll and I Am Maximus both had 8 such traits (the highest as yet) and the model identified Max as matching the GN-strength of Tiger's breeding in advance. Moreover, on back-testing the formula, every
winner since 2013 had at least 4 "Pedigree Pluses" and every placed horse finishing <10L at
least 3.
Of the 427 runners
since 2013, 86 (20%) had 4+ Pedigree Pluses. They produced 100% of winners and near-missers
<5L, 94% of those finishing 0~10L and 75% of 1st~5th
(an outperformance factor of x3.7 in frame-making).
In 2021, that
Pedigree component enabled me to pick out Minella Times as early as the weights
(he already had the requisite CV) and I snaffled 40/1 (SP 11s after Rachel
picked him).
In 2023, it prompted me to do likewise with I Am Maximus, taking the 25s on offer on the
morning of his Bobbyjo win, which confirmed his Racing CV. Indeed, 1st, 2nd, 4th and 5th last year were all rated by the model as among those with the best pedigrees in the race.
However, this year
is going to be a YUGE test of both Racing CV and Pedigree components of the model.
Based on Racing CV alone,
with all chase preps now run, of the 49 entries remaining at GNOR147+,
my model reckons that there are 6 that are potential winners of the 2025 GN.
In order of strength of Racing CV relative to allotted weight:
HOWEVER, ranking the
49 entries by Pedigree only produces 7 with 4+ “litmus-test” traits in common
with GN winners.
In order of strength
of Pedigree:
1 I Am Maximus = 8 2 Kandoo Kid = 6 3 Minella Cocooner = 5 4(joint) Conflated, Galvin, Zanahiyr, Vanillier = 4
FYI, Iroko has 3, Inothewayurthinkin
has 2 and Intense Raffles has 1.
Having less than 4
doesn’t mean they can’t make the frame, but no runner with < 3 has placed
nearer than 12L 4th (Anibale Fly in 2018 = 1).
So, for the first time,
my model’s final selections are going to:
(a) ignore the runner with the top Pedigree score (last
year’s winner), as his Racing CV comes up short as topweight AND
(b) relegate to minor place material the 2 with the strongest Racing CVs, and on
paper the best handicapped in the field.
Because, applying
the Pedigree component to this year’s short-list of 6, produces its final
Top 6 ranked as follows:
1 KANDOO KID now best-price 25/1
2 <5L VANILLIER 20/1 and MINELLA
COCOONER 40/1
4 5~10L IROKO 12/1
5 10~15L INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN 3/1
6 12~20L INTENSE RAFFLES 10/1
To state the bleedin’ obvious, it’s uneconomic to back all 6 of
these each way as I would have in days of yore. So, for my betting slip, in addition
to each way interests on the top 4, I have a win saver on Intense Raffles at
10/1 but at 3/1 I’ll be giving Inothewayurthinkin the
swerve, should he line up.
Aside from his nice but sub-par pedigree for a GN, impressive though he was storming up the hill yesterday, it was
interesting that his half-brother hit a wall at around 4 miles and PU’d in last
month’s Eider, having cruised round the inner.
Ino is different class obviously,
but hot GNs favs, with still stronger staying credentials, have hit a wall after the
last at Aintree (Shutthefrontdoor 6/1 in 2015 and Blacklion 8/1 in 2017) or disappoint
altogether (Cloth Cap 11/2 in 2021 - unfancied by my model's Pedigree analysis).
So, that's it folks. These 6 are my model's picks for the 2025 GN and my own translation of them onto a betting slip.
Nearer the time, I’ll possibly add a win saver on I Am Maximus if his price drifts and there's juice in the ground, or
extended place interests if prices look tasty for Zanahiyr, Galvin or Senior
Chief (3 pedigree pluses).
You are probably right, I hadn't thought of that, my mental acuity is fading fast. It's just taken me ages to get my train tickets for Peterborough, and I've probably bought tickets to Petersfield anyway
Approximately 5/1 is available on Inothewayurthinkin on the Betfair Exchange but that's still too short for me. It will be bigger than 3/1 with the bookies and on the exchange once they are all NRNB I'm sure but, even then, it would only be a "cover bet" for me for other horses I might back in the race. I genuinely didn't think when I cashed out that they would be going for the GC and the GN - Gavin Cromwell has admitted that, despite having to supplement the horse, he had always campaigned it as if the GC was its target and with it being only a 7 year old, a potential winner of the GC next year and JPM having other horses in the race, I thought that I was doing the right thing. At least the "bird in the hand" of winning on the GC is better than nought!
Hewick won his hurdles prep very nicely. Cut to 25~33s. I wish my model fancied him because he’s such a genuine and likeable stayer. While he has the stats to put in a bold show for a long way if he gets his preferred decent surface, it rates him a tad short of frame-making.
Comments
He sweated up a lot before the start - maybe too long since a proper race - and the ground didn't help (much softer than GS).
But it was a poor run - he's performed on Soft even if he's better on better ground.
Just needed to be competitive today but, sadly, he hasn't ticked the boxes, so doesn't make my model's top 5.
That's a shame. I noticed on replay O'Connor had to slam the brakes on hard when nearly following Vanillier off the course, colliding with Stumptown. May be did it then and maybe that's when Stumptown's saddle got a little shifted.
5 runners in the Gold Cup with GN entries and while none, according to my model, have the pedigree to win a GN, there's 1 for whom a vaguely-realistic, competitive run tomorrow could put him in the picture to make the frame at Aintree:
THE REAL WHACKER - would need to at least match his career-high chase RPR163 to do so, set 2 years ago when winning the Brown Advisory.
Obviously well short of the grade to challenge GDC and the best 3 milers (he PU'd in last year's GC, the furthest trip he's attempted), the way he's finished other chases at 3m+ (particularly his staying-on up The Hill close 2nd in last season's Cotswold Chase) and, importantly, his pedigree suggest an extended (even a marathon) trip should suit.
- by Mahler, sire of The Big Dog (GN5th), his damsire Witness Box was sire of Monbeg Dude (GN3rd), x2 Scottish GN winner Godsmejudge and 4 mile winner Take The Stand and damsire of dour stayer Mister Fogpatches; his 2nd damsire Anshan was damsire of Minella Times and sired McKelvey (close GN2nd) and 3rd damsire Fidel damsired 2 winners at 29~30f;
- meaningfully linebred to Tudor Minstrel, like Auroras Encore, Pineau De Re, One For Arthur, Magic Of Light and Noble Yeats (36.4% of winners since 2013 from just 4.2% of fields [18 runners]);
- like Kandoo Kid, he represents Family 1, with the out-performing mitochondrialDNA N2a (4 GN winners [36.4%] from 11.9% of runners)
It's a tall order to show best form when so overmatched in a Gold Cup (40/1) but, should he do so, by my model's calculations the 9 yo (currently 66/1 for the GN) would join Iroko as the joint 4th best rated for the GN.Gentlemansgame also has pedigree consistent with strong place potential in a GN but he'd need to win or go close tomorrow to have the requisite racing CV and, in the unlikely event he did so, would have little recovery time for a modern GN just 22 days later.
Similarly, Inothewayurthinkin and Montys Star would need to win or go close in the GC to enter the equation as minor place potential for the GN but obviously the same inadequate recovery time applies - with the GC their target, neither are certain to line up on 5 April.
Royale Pagaille, who also represents mtDNA N2a, simply doesn't have the CV for the 11.09 he'd shoulder in the GN.
I hadn't realised Galvin was taken away in a horse ambulance, as you presumably noticed @Starinnaddick
Reassuring news for his well-being at least from Elliott: "Galvin had a haematomma on his knee but he was x-rayed and everything was good. He's on his way home now."
Vanillier was only given an RPR of 146 for his run, which totally disregards the jockey fucking it up.
Much closer to matching his career-best 154 in my book, maybe152, which would rate him 2L adrift of Stumptown rather than the actual 8L - that looks fair to me.
What’s clear as day is that nothing was finishing faster than Vanillier in that race.
Bodes very well if he makes the cut and keeps the blinkers.
Vanillier's RPR for Wednesday's strong but unlucky run in the XC upgraded to 152
JP looks after his horses as well as any owner but I think he'll take the advice of Gavin Cromwell (who's also known for doing right by the horses in his care) on how Inothewayurthinkin has taken the race.
He won it very convincingly and, despite just 22 days to recover, I suspect we'll hear he's come out of it well and will be ready to line up at Aintree.
If so, could go one of 2 ways:
- they take advantage of just 11-05 to carry at Aintree, as he's certain to be topweight next year.
- or they may just think he's so good, they should forget the GN altogether for the time-being and target multiple Gold Cups.
We'll see.Incidentally what weight do you think he would be given if the handicapper could reframe the weights?
A decisive win, even allowing for GDC not fully firing.
I’d say his mark now would be at least a stone higher than his GNOR160. Best guess 177.
I have a feeling they’ll scratch him and aim to produce the next GC superstar.
He also has a few more entries that could figure.
Midland National day tomorrow and a belter it should be, but sadly irrelevant to the real thing.
Prior to 2021, my model's GN selections would have been based 95% on Racing CVs, relative to weight (just the presence or not of Wild Risk on the damside being the sole pedigree consideration). Any horse passing the threshold of < 3 fails of its 20 or so tests would be considered a potential winner.
From 2006 to 2018, there were typically 4~6 that met the standard out of the 40 runners and, with the race and price opportunities of old, these were generally all backable each way, leaving a nice return profile. In olden times, with 1/4 odds for 5 or more places as standard and scaled bets, 1 place would equal breakeven. But those days are long gone.
Worse, in 2018, there were 9 that met the standard and one of them was Tiger Roll, whose final prep (the Festival XC) confirmed his GN winning Racing CV. Naturally, it also sent his odds crashing.
They also included Bless The Wings, who ran in the Irish GN on desperate ground just 12 days prior to Aintree.
So, unable to back all 9 e/w, I decided to give both of these the swerve. They finished 1st and 3rd (40/1) and my best bet was placed 5th.
On price grounds, I also gave Tiger the swerve in 2019, again despite the model selecting him as a potential winner – surely no horse could do a Red Rum these days I stupidly presumed.
Duly pissed off, when Covid produced a blank year and a lot of research was feasible, I decided I had to employ an additional component and pre-filter to the Racing CV, so as to take early odds with confidence and, if it became necessary eventually to give a runner the swerve on price, at least I would have some statistical basis for so doing.
So I set about considering whether there were statistically verifiable and logical traits in common about the pedigrees of modern GN winners and frame-makers.
Indeed, there were and are. And, with evolution, the Pedigree Component of my model now considers how many of 14 traits (each tested for meaningful GN outperformance v representation) are present in a runner’s pedigree. 3 of these traits relate to its sire, 6 to its damside and 5 to linebreeding to key stallions and mares.
To give you an idea: Tiger Roll and I Am Maximus both had 8 such traits (the highest as yet) and the model identified Max as matching the GN-strength of Tiger's breeding in advance. Moreover, on back-testing the formula, every winner since 2013 had at least 4 "Pedigree Pluses" and every placed horse finishing <10L at least 3.
Of the 427 runners since 2013, 86 (20%) had 4+ Pedigree Pluses. They produced 100% of winners and near-missers <5L, 94% of those finishing 0~10L and 75% of 1st~5th (an outperformance factor of x3.7 in frame-making).
In 2021, that Pedigree component enabled me to pick out Minella Times as early as the weights (he already had the requisite CV) and I snaffled 40/1 (SP 11s after Rachel picked him).
In 2023, it prompted me to do likewise with I Am Maximus, taking the 25s on offer on the morning of his Bobbyjo win, which confirmed his Racing CV. Indeed, 1st, 2nd, 4th and 5th last year were all rated by the model as among those with the best pedigrees in the race.
However, this year is going to be a YUGE test of both Racing CV and Pedigree components of the model.
Based on Racing CV alone, with all chase preps now run, of the 49 entries remaining at GNOR147+, my model reckons that there are 6 that are potential winners of the 2025 GN.
1 (joint) Inothewayurthinkin * and Intense Raffles *In order of strength of Racing CV relative to allotted weight:
3 Kandoo Kid *
4 Vanillier
5 Minella Cocooner
6 Iroko *
* = 2nd season chaser
HOWEVER, ranking the 49 entries by Pedigree only produces 7 with 4+ “litmus-test” traits in common with GN winners.
In order of strength of Pedigree:
2 Kandoo Kid = 6
3 Minella Cocooner = 5
4 (joint) Conflated, Galvin, Zanahiyr, Vanillier = 4
FYI, Iroko has 3, Inothewayurthinkin has 2 and Intense Raffles has 1.
Having less than 4 doesn’t mean they can’t make the frame, but no runner with < 3 has placed nearer than 12L 4th (Anibale Fly in 2018 = 1).
So, for the first time, my model’s final selections are going to:
(a) ignore the runner with the top Pedigree score (last year’s winner), as his Racing CV comes up short as topweight AND
(b) relegate to minor place material the 2 with the strongest Racing CVs, and on paper the best handicapped in the field.
Because, applying the Pedigree component to this year’s short-list of 6, produces its final Top 6 ranked as follows:
1 KANDOO KID now best-price 25/1
2 <5L VANILLIER 20/1 and MINELLA COCOONER 40/1
4 5~10L IROKO 12/1
5 10~15L INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN 3/1
6 12~20L INTENSE RAFFLES 10/1
To state the bleedin’ obvious, it’s uneconomic to back all 6 of these each way as I would have in days of yore. So, for my betting slip, in addition to each way interests on the top 4, I have a win saver on Intense Raffles at 10/1 but at 3/1 I’ll be giving Inothewayurthinkin the swerve, should he line up.
Aside from his nice but sub-par pedigree for a GN, impressive though he was storming up the hill yesterday, it was interesting that his half-brother hit a wall at around 4 miles and PU’d in last month’s Eider, having cruised round the inner.
Ino is different class obviously, but hot GNs favs, with still stronger staying credentials, have hit a wall after the last at Aintree (Shutthefrontdoor 6/1 in 2015 and Blacklion 8/1 in 2017) or disappoint altogether (Cloth Cap 11/2 in 2021 - unfancied by my model's Pedigree analysis).
So, that's it folks. These 6 are my model's picks for the 2025 GN and my own translation of them onto a betting slip.
Nearer the time, I’ll possibly add a win saver on I Am Maximus if his price drifts and there's juice in the ground, or extended place interests if prices look tasty for Zanahiyr, Galvin or Senior Chief (3 pedigree pluses).
Bon chance.
Glad you enjoy it.
Makes the grief from Mrs Molloy endurable
20/1
16/1 and 33/1
10/1
5/2
8/1.
It's gone to shit since Bob left. They must be paying his replacement a lot more
It's just taken me ages to get my train tickets for Peterborough, and I've probably bought tickets to Petersfield anyway
Cut to 25~33s.
I wish my model fancied him because he’s such a genuine and likeable stayer.
While he has the stats to put in a bold show for a long way if he gets his preferred decent surface, it rates him a tad short of frame-making.