Apologies again folks. Zanahiyr has failed to qualify for the GN as his best is 5th in a 3m+ chase. The stipulation is at least 4th. Same goes for French Dynamite. So, 2 of the GNOR147s are indeed already guaranteed a run.
Is Placenet also not qualified?
Yeap, you're right.
Racing Post card has now caught up with all the withdrawals/eliminations.
Showing Vanillier as 34 but that will depend on relative current ORs vs Monbeg Genius, Horantzau d'Airy, Hyland and Celebre d'Allen. Only Vanillier and Hyland have run since the weights were allotted and both made the frame. Could be down to lots unless 3 more come out.
If down to lots PM, would Vanillier be fine to back without NRNB (at better odds I am assuming) as this is balloting out so you'd get stake back?
Absolutely, he'd likely be a Reserve anyway.
That's when you could see manipulation taking place if they fancy the horse. Lol
Though Ino was anticipated, his withdrawal and that of a fair few others in the top 40 of the weights, was quite a rock chucked in the pool as regards the betting market and, indeed, the outsiders still flashing away on my radar screen, not as potential winners but as tastily-priced frame-makers.
Now only 5 horses have the racing CVs to win this GN, according to my model. In order of strength of Racing CV relative to allotted weight:
We're also down to only 5 runners with 4+ of the model's 14 “litmus-test” pedigree traits in common with GN winners. In order of strength of Pedigree:
1 I Am Maximus = 8 2 Kandoo Kid = 6 3 Minella Cocooner = 5 4(joint) Conflated, Vanillier = 4 Next Best (strong place potential): (joint) Royale Pagaille, Nick Rockett, Minella Indo, Iroko, Senior Chief, Coko Beach, Meetingofthewaters, Twig
FYI, Intense Raffles has 1, which is consistent with ability to make the frame but typically 12~20L adrift of the "typical winner".
So, my model’s final selections are unchanged, save for the elevation of Intense Raffles:
1 KANDOO KID now best-price 25/1
2VANILLIER 16/1 and MINELLA COCOONER 40/1
4 IROKO 8/1
5 INTENSE RAFFLES 7/1
I'm on each way (4~6 places) on the top 4 and have a win saver on Intense Raffles and have some dry powder for extended place bets on those at the periphery of my radar screen that the market's written off.
Of the remaining possibles,Conflated has an interesting pedigree but his season's form is way short of what's needed and he looks to me like a horse that's likely to spit the dummy rather than feel re-invigorated by his first sight of the spruce.
Of those with the Next Best pedigrees (3 Pedigree Pluses), other than Iroko, the closest to having a frame-making Racing CV are Senior Chief (66/1, 5 places) and Minella Indo (50/1, 6 places), being Henry de Bromhead's only remaining entries.
A notable plus is that the yard has hit some decent form: 73% Running-to-Form, including 2 wins and 9 places from 24 runners at the Festival.
Minella Indo seems to be a forgotten horse, being 9lbs better off with I Am Maximus for his 8L 3rd last year, though it's fair to say the tank looked empty.
Since 2013, horses that have placed (2~5) have a x2.7 outperformance factor in repeating the feat (Cappa Bleu, Oscar Time, Alvarado, Saint Are, Anibale Fly, Any Second Now and Delta Work all obliging).
Indo handles any ground but at 12 years of age, the GN stats say he'd need slow ground to be in the mix.
Senior Chief's jumping can be less than fluent and the blot on his CV is his PU in last April's Irish GN on heavy ground. But there is a possible excuse for that, as mentioned in a previous post, and de Bromhead has always regarded him as an Aintree National type
He was staying on well under topweight in the Coral Gold Cup on the sort of ground they'll likely get at Aintree.
His pedigree supports him having a sniff, being by Gentlewave (sire of 4 mile winner Easysland and other stayers) and sharing his damsire (Saddlers Hall) with The Big Dog (GN 5th). He's from the family of Monanore (GN 3rd and 6th, 1988 & 89) and, if you want an omen, his uncle was the 26f winner for the Tizzards, Bob Bob Bobbin.
He's a 2nd season chaser (strongly favoured) but only has 6 chases to his name - the fewest for any GN winner since at least 1988 was 7 for Noble Yeats and, even of frame-makers, only Shutthefrontdoor (5th in 2015) had as few as 6.
Neither of these should win the GN but they do have the racing and breeding profiles to figure in the minor places at decent prices. I'll await the extended place-only offerings from Bet365 in due course to think about investing a shilling.
But a word of caution, which @RobinKeepsBobbin is acutely switched on to. One of them will, presumably, be ridden by Rachel Blackmore. Expect the price to be cut meaningfully the instant she selects her steed.
Interesting which horse Rachael will choose. They are both around the same price in betting. But i don't think a 12 year old has much chance in a modern National. My guess is she will pick Senior Chief.
Topham entries include the following with GN entries, 3 of which are above Vanillier in the GN weights:
Appreciate It Capodanno Celebre d'Allen Chemical Energy Escaria Ten Fantastic Lady Minella Crooner Minella Drama Richmond Lake Shakem Up'arry Spanish Harlem Twig
Interesting which horse Rachael will choose. They are both around the same price in betting. But i don't think a 12 year old has much chance in a modern National. My guess is she will pick Senior Chief.
I hope she sticks with the old boy tbh. Aside from preserving Senior Chief's price pending the place only offers, Darragh O'Keefe was on board for his 2 best chase RPRs.
Can't not have a real long shot running to win and thought 66s was just too big for Senior Chief, so had a nibble e/w even though it’s only 5 places. Seems others thought the same as he’s now 50s best price. Will still have a shilling at extended places if the price looks right when they’re offered.
Can't not have a real long shot running to win and thought 66s was just too big for Senior Chief, so had a nibble e/w even though it’s only 5 places. Seems others thought the same as he’s now 50s best price. Will still have a shilling at extended places if the price looks right when they’re offered.
Maybe someone knows which horse Rachael will choose
Can't not have a real long shot running to win and thought 66s was just too big for Senior Chief, so had a nibble e/w even though it’s only 5 places. Seems others thought the same as he’s now 50s best price. Will still have a shilling at extended places if the price looks right when they’re offered.
Maybe someone knows which horse Rachael will choose
Still 50s, like Indo. i think it was just bet365 were out of line at 66.
3rd dam is a daughter of Secretariat, US Triple Crown winner and possessor of a whopping 22lb heart (key to the production of aerobic energy, which is crucial over marathon trips) - that's more than twice the size of an average horse. According to the "X Factor" theory, AI may have inherited a big heart via Secretariat's X chromosome.
loves April - never out of the frame in 3 chases during the month, including 2 Grade 1s
Has no chance because:
will hate the occasion: never faced more than 8 rivals over fences
won't get the trip: never won at 3 miles or further Under Rules
CAPODANNO
Is nailed-on because:
ignore his 2 prior GNs - got caught up in the mayhem of 2023 and stumbled badly early doors last time, costing him his chance
come bang into form with a fine 3rd in the Bobbyjo, just 6L behind GN fav Intense Raffles GN fav. Handicapped to finish just 7L behind him at Aintree but, unlike Intense Raffles, he's won this side of the Irish Sea. Should be much shorter than 66/1
Has no chance because:
flopped twice in GNs already: no horse for at least 37 years has even made the frame after 2 prior GN flops
MINELLA COCOONER
Is nailed-on because:
best 2 RPRs have come over furthest trips attempted (29f)
from family of GN winner Hedgehunter, his sire (Flemensfirth), damsire (Old Vic) and 2nd damsire (Roselier) sired or damsired 5 GN winners between them (Noble Yeats / Comply Or Die & Don't Push It / Royal Athlete & Bindaree) and, together, account for another 9 GN runners-up (including King Johns Castle, The Last Samuri & Magic Of Light / Black Apalachi & Sunnyhillboy / Suny Bay twice)
Has no chance because:
too much weight: on his Bobbyjo 4th, he's got more than a stone to find with Intense Raffles
CONFLATED
Is nailed-on because:
now 11lb lower than his highest winning mark
fine 3rd behind GDC in the GC 2 years ago
from family of GN winners Grittar and Maori Venture, his sire (Yeats) and first 3 damsires (Presenting, Strong Gale and Choral Society) sired or damsired 7 to make the first 3 in a GN, including winners Miinnehoma, Ballabriggs and Noble Yeats.
Has no chance because:
past it: more than 2 years since he won
lousy form: beaten 57L over the XC course in November, over the furthest trip attempted
STUMPTOWN
Is nailed-on because:
stamina his forte: aside from when badly hampered and unseating in the 4m La Touche when prominent, is unbeaten over furthest trip attempted (2 from 2 at 29.5f)
in great form: upped career-high chase RPR by 7lbs to 165 when winning the Festival XC, despite saddle having slipped
Has no chance because:
too much weight: his GN mark of 157 is 15lbs above his highest winning mark over conventional fences
will hate Aintree: never even made the frame in any race on a flat track (6 attempts, including 4 at galloping courses such as the GN course at Aintree), compared to 13 wins & places from 18 on undulating tracks
unexposed beyond 3m but runner-up 3 from 3 over the furthest trip attempted (23.5f), ignoring when he bled in the King George.
pedigree suggests he could surprise over a marathon trip: from the family of GN frame-maker Bonanza Boy and Midlands National near-misser Mr Incredible but without the nuttiness; his damsire Martaline sired GN near-misser Vanillier, hot fav Intense Raffles and other notable stayers
likes Aintree and handles the hullaballoo: good record over the Mildmay course (matched career-high RPR during a GN meeting and on the ground they'll likely get)
Has no chance because:
hates big fields: never beaten more than 4 rivals over fences, failing to make the frame on all 3 occasions facing 10+
BEAUPORT
Is nailed-on because:
has bags of stamina: other than I Am Maximus, the only horse in the field that's won over 34f (last season's Midlands National on testing ground)
in great form: set new career-high RPR160 when trouncing the field at Ascot in last chase outing in November over 29.5f and was subsequently a fine runner-up in the Rendlesham hurdle on GS
trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies knows what it takes: won the GN twice (Earth Summit and Bindaree)
same colours (and owner) as Corbiere, who won the 1983 GN
an old-fashioned GN-type: inherited the mitochondrial DNA L2b1a from his mum: runners with that or near-identical mtDNA accounted for 11% of GN runners but 26% of winners (Rhyme n Reason, Party Politics, Earth Summit, Montys Pass, Mon Mome and Ballabriggs) from 1988~2012 (winning outperformance x2.4)
Has no chance because:
his mtDNA of L2b1a and it's near-identical variant, having outperformed pre-2013, have produced zero frame-makers from 9% of runners since - the modern GN is more a test of stamina at a high-cruising speed than the old of stamina over big obstacles
trainer's lost his GN midas touch: 10 of 12 runners since 2013 failing to finish
BRAVEMANSGAME
Is nailed-on because:
nice weight: other than old-timer Minella Indo, Bravemansgame has the highest premium (+19lbs) of career-best chase RPR174 (notched 2 years ago when just 7L behind GDC in the GC - furthest trip attempted) to GNOR 155
trip could be right up his street: never tried beyond the GC trip but is from the family of Synchronised and GN winner Rough Quest
Has no chance because:
past it: hasn't won for over 2 years
will likely hate the experience: never faced more than 12 rivals in 24 hurdles and chases
CHANTRY HOUSE
Is nailed-on because:
54% win ratio from 13 chases, with the pick of them in the Grade 1 Mildmay at the 2021 GN meeting
likely to be the sole representative this year of the rare mitochondrial DNA M1a, which has a strong record in GNs since 1988 (even better since 2013): 31 runners (2.4% of fields) have produced 10 frame-makers, 7 in the first 3 (x2.4 outperformance to 2012 and x3.9 since), including 2 winners (Mr Frisk and Corach Rambler)
Has no chance because:
abandoned chasing when injured after jumping went to pot 2 seasons ago and, despite a small-field win on return to fences in January, he's never beaten more than 7 rivals in a chase and has 3 incompletes versus 9+
trainer has an abysmal record in the GN
THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE
Is nailed-on because:
staying-on 4th 6L in 4m Scottish GN 2 years ago (furthest trip attempted), he'll love the likely decent surface
from the family of Hedgehunter, his 2nd damsire Garde Royale has strong GN connections, siring and dam-siring runners-up Royal Auclair and Balko Des Flos respectively.
in good form, matching career-high RPR159 (6lbs premium to GNOR) last time
Has no chance because:
sire Shantou has a truly abysmal progeny record in the GN: 13 runners (closest 45L) with 10 failing to complete
Not sure if it effects his participation in the GN (I doubt it will tbh) but Minella Cocooner has also been entered in the Grande Steeple Chase de Paris (French GN) 17th May
Apologies folks. A bit got left off somehow when I posted yesterday. Here's the complete version:
MINELLA COCOONER
Is nailed-on because:
best
2 RPRs have come over furthest trips attempted (29f):
a 4L
3rd under topweight in the Irish GN on Heavy, followed up 26 days later by
a strong-finishing win in the Bet365 on Good (giving 4lbs to Nick Rockett,
2.5L behind - MC gets 6lbs from him at Aintree). Nick Rockett and 4th
place Certainly Red both franked the form with wins off higher marks.
a “Spring
horse”, he’s 5 from 5 making the frame (2 wins and biggest defeat 5L) from
18 March~1 June
from
family of GN winner Hedgehunter, his sire (Flemensfirth), damsire (Old
Vic) and 2nd damsire (Roselier) sired or damsired 5 GN winners between
them (Noble Yeats / Comply Or Die & Don't Push It / Royal Athlete
& Bindaree) and, together, account for another 9 GN runners-up
(including King Johns Castle, The Last Samuri & Magic Of Light /
Black Apalachi & Sunnyhillboy / Suny Bay twice)
Has no chance because:
too
much weight: on his Bobbyjo 4th, he's got more than a stone to find with
Intense Raffles
Mr Incredible has been declared for the Kelso 1.15 tomorrow and is the outsider of five at 16/1 with Paddy Power and William Hill. That price might prove a bookies' benefit if it digs its heals in once again or a gift should it win. There is a reason, however, why it has been allotted the dreaded Timeform squiggle.
won a key GN trial: December's big field Paddy Power Handicap at Leopardstown - one of 2 key Irish pointers to modern GN success, especially for JP's runners: Gilgamboa (4th PP, 4th GN 2016), Anibale Fly (1st PP, 4th GN 2018), Minella Times (2nd PP, 1st GN 2021). And Noble Yeats was a respectable 9th in the PP before his GN victory in 2022.
form of that race franked by Nick Rockett (4th), with back-to-back wins in the Thyestes (off a higher mark) and Bobbyjo; and 3 of the next 4 home that won or were placed at The Festival
Perceval followed up himself by winning a big handicap hurdle at the same track - last outing
2nd season chaser AND an 8 year old - the sweetest of sweet spots: 2nd season chasers outperform x3.2 their representation in producing GN winners but those that were also 8 year olds are more potent still, producing 5 of the last 9 GN winners (55.6%) from just 47 runners (13.5% = x4.1 outperformance)
sired by Ballingarry, a grandson of Northern Dancer: GN runners with ND in their topline have produced all 11 winners since 2013 from 59% of runners (x1.7 outperformance)
Has no chance because:
Too much weight: best chase RPR154 is a mere 1lb above his GNOR153. No horse has won the GN with such a meagre premium (average of last 11 winners GNOR+8lbs).
The key French sire of the mid 20th Century, Wild Risk (whose rare genetics are highly synergistic with those of the ubiquitous Sadlers Wells), is entirely absent from his pedigree. The 134 GN runners since 2013 whose pedigrees were likewise (31.4% of fields, from which random distribution should lead us to have expected 3~4 winners) have produced ZERO winners
KANDOO KID Is nailed-on because:
2nd season chaser: 9 of last 10 GN winners were 1st or 2nd season chasers, from only 28% of GN runners: x3.2 outperformance
Set career-best RPR157 (GNOR+5lbs) at furthest trip attempted when winning November's Coral Gold Cup - form franked by 3rd then winning 2/2, including off 3lbs higher, and 5th winning next outing
Loves the GN fences - 2L 3rd in last April's Topham
Pedigree strongly consistent with those of modern GN winners:
Progeny of his sire Kapgarde have a great record at the GN meeting: 25% from 40 runners
Damsires 1~3 were all Group 1 winners at 8f+: 4 GN winners and 2 near-missers (31%) were likewise from 27 runners (6.3% of fields = x5 outperformance). All 3 also dam-sired notable stayers (DS2 Turgeon is DS of GN close 2nd Vaniller and DS3 Le Glorieux (grandson of Wild Risk) dam-sired the great staying hurdler Big Bucks and a 4m winner over fences).
represents the out-performing mtDNA haplotype N2a: shared by 4 of last 8 GN winners (Rule The World, One For Arthur, Minella Times, I Am Maximus) from 11.6% of fields (x4.3 outperformance)
Has no chance because:
Collateral form via Djelo favours Iroko at the GN weights
Only 2 prior runs in season: it’s 31 years since a GN winner had only 2 prior runs in the season (Miinnehoma).
Trained by Paul Nicholls: only 2 of last 8 GN winners were British-trained (none English-trained) from 51.6% of fields (x0.48 underperformance)
Suspect wind: has has wind surgery x3, the last prior to his Coral GC win
Northern Dancer does not feature in his sire's topline: all 11 GN winners since 2013 have been descendants of ND's male line
IROKO
Is nailed-on because:
2nd season chaser ..... you know the schpeel
Staying-on 2nd 4L to future GC winner Inothewayurthinkin in the 25f Novice Grade 1 Mildmay at last year's GN meeting (furthest trip Iroko's attempted), after which JP named Iroko his "Grand National horse" for 2025.
The form of that race looks exceptional with the 2 nearest, also then 6 year olds, all training-on and upping their career-best chase RPRs and Official Ratings this season: Ino's RPR +22lbs when winning the GC (OR +17lbs) and 3rd Heart Wood's RPR +13lbs when 2nd to Fact To File at The Festival (OR +7lbs).
Iroko should also have trained-on and, in this context, he could be very well-handicapped off GNOR152 (+3lbs on last season). His RPR157 (and unchanged OR) when staying-on 2.5L 2nd to Grey Dawning last run at Kelso looks an under-estimation, perhaps as it was essentially a match. Despite the showboating by Skelton, the RPR167 winner's margin was rather less flattering than the respective RPRs suggest. Either his RPR was overstated or, more likely in the context of the quality of opposition in the Mildmay, Iroko's was understated by up to 5lbs.
Pedigree with strong GN associations:
His Damsire (Martaline) sired GN near-misser Vanillier and his 3rd damsire (Signani - grandson of Wild Risk) has appeared in the damsire-line of only 1 other GN runner: x2 near-misser Saint Are
Strongly inbred to the influential Wild Risk - 33 GN runners since 2013 (7.7%) were similarly inbred to WR or his near-relatives and they produced 4 winners (36.4% = x4.7 outperformance)
Also inbred meaningfully to Mill Reef: only 6 horses have run in GNs since 2013 that were similarly inbred to the Timeform 141-rated star - they include One For Arthur and GN 2nd Balko Des Flos.
Has no chance because:
while the 82 year GN bogie for 7 year olds was broken by Noble Yeats in 2022, 7 year olds still underperform even in modern GNs (since 2013, 6.6% of runners but 5.3% of winners and 5.5% of frame-makers)
won't get the trip: only 1 chase win to date and that at 20f
will hate the occasion: never faced more than 10 rivals over fences and failed to make the frame x2 vs 6+
British trainer (2 from 8 GN winners = x0.48 underperformance)
Northern Dancer does not feature in his sire's topline: all 11 GN winners since 2013 have been descendants of ND's male line
INTENSE RAFFLES
Is nailed-on because:
2nd season chaser ...... ZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzz
4 from 4 (wins and near-misses) over fences since arriving from France, winning last year's Irish GN (11-04 on Heavy), the form of which is decent (3 of the 6 behind winning subsequently off the same or up to 6lbs higher marks)
even better run last time out when 0.75L 2nd in Bobbyjo to Nick Rockett, giving him 3lbs. On the form of the Bobbyjo, he'll have a stone or more in hand of both Nick Rockett and Minella Cocooner
that run made him officially 5lbs+ well-in for the GN and notched a new career-high RPR160 (+9lb premium to GNOR - average +8lb for last 11 GN winners)
by Martaline (sire of GN close 2nd Vanillier), a descendant of Northern Dancer: GN runners with ND in their topline have produced all 11 winners since 2013 from 59% of runners (x1.7 outperformance)
related to Ucello Conti (GN 6th) and to a 4m Hunter Chase winner, Coup De Pinceau (also a creditable 8th in the Scottish GN)
inbred to Mill Reef: as were 6 other horses that have run in GNs since 2013, including One For Arthur and GN 2nd Balko Des Flos
Has no chance because:
all his wins have come at right-handed Fairyhouse and on Soft or Heavy - the forecast points to a quickish surface at left-handed Aintree
has a poor hurdles record with best RPR124f from 5 runs: since the GN fence changes post-2012, all winners and near-missers with > 3 hurdles' runs had notched an RPR of at least 130 (average 144)
collateral form over hurdles via Ted Walsh's Gaoth Chuil puts him (on paper) at a 9lbs disadvantage to Perceval Legallois at Aintree
despite Noble Yeats' win in 2022, 7 year olds still underperform even in modern GNs (since 2013, 6.6% of runners but 5.3% of winners and 5.5% of frame-makers)
SENIOR CHIEF
Is nailed-on because:
2nd season chaser AND an 8 year old - the sweetest of sweet spots: 5 of the last 9 GN winners (55.6%) from just 47 runners (13.5% = x4.1 outperformance)
in chase debut just 3L behind Inothewayurthinkin at level weights early last season and will have a 3lb pull vs Minella Cocooner based on his close 2nd to him next run
you can disregard his PU in the Irish GN on Heavy - his 3rd run in quick succession on testing ground.
best form (x2 best RPRs) is on a decent surface - which he's likely to see at Aintree - including a stoutly staying on 6th in the Coral Gold Cup under topweight in November
by Gentlewave (sire of 4 mile winner Easysland), he shares his damsire (Saddlers Hall) with The Big Dog (GN 5th) and is from the family of Monanore (GN 3rd and 6th, 1988 & 89)
from GN-winning yard of Henry de Bromhead ("the English National has always been in my head for him"), he could be piloted by GN-winning jockey Rachel Blackmore
Has no chance because:
too inexperienced: only has 6 chases to his name - the fewest for any GN winner since at least 1988 was 7 for Noble Yeats
out of his depth: never made the frame in a Class 1 chase or hurdle
won't get the trip: pulled up in Irish GN when having every chance 5 out
Northern Dancer does not feature in his sire's topline: all 11 GN winners since 2013 have been descendants of ND's male line
Mr Incredible has been declared for the Kelso 1.15 tomorrow and is the outsider of five at 16/1 with Paddy Power and William Hill. That price might prove a bookies' benefit if it digs its heals in once again or a gift should it win. There is a reason, however, why it has been allotted the dreaded Timeform squiggle.
We'll find out whether a spell at Freddy Steeles place has made any difference to him. It will be his third GN if he lines up.
The joint trainers of Iroko said the other day that JP was only interested in winning one race with the horse this season and so he had been laid out for the GN as requested.
Glad to hear they’ve applied some sense. Thomson said: "He's qualified for the National, but the officials want to see him start with no discrepancies. We've changed things around and he went around a point-to-point course and also galloped here fine. We're hopeful nothing will happen and it'll have him spot on for Aintree."
originally a £155k Gigginstown purchase, career-best with last July's win over the furthest trip attempted, the 25.5f Kilbeggan National; notably on a decent surface that he's likely to get at Aintree
from family of GN 4th & 5th Addington Boy and bought in January specifically to run in the GN
miracles happen
Has no chance because:
form of that Kilbeggan race is shite
jumping goes to pot in large fields
Gigginstown obviously don’t think the 11 year old’s a GN winner
new trainer, British-based Richard Phillips, better known for his impersonations than producing big winners
MR INCREDIBLE
......... no, MAKE IT START !!!
Is nailed on because ..... OK don't laugh, it's all true:
he did start after a wobble at Kelso and did so perfectly in GN debut
RR then PU in 2 outings for new connections in small fields BUT Willie Mullins maintained he needed to run with a herd and evidence of last GN supports that - having dwelt at the start, he picked up ground and was comfortably with the pack by first Bechers
has such abundant stamina and is off such a low weight, that a slow start won't materially disadvantage him; in fact it can and did help dodge early fallers
2L 2nd under 12 stone over the 34f trip in last year's Midlands National on testing ground: will be a stone well-in with winner Beauport at Aintree
handles any surface, has won on Yielding (Good-To-Soft), showing serious gears as a youngster
misfortune, not nuttiness, ended both his GN attempts: going well and in touch on debut in 2023 when saddle slipped after 2nd Canal Turn and unseating (in touch) at the Chair last time
pigs might indeed fly
Has no chance because:
nuff said
FIL DOR
Is nailed on because:
close relative of Gold Cup winner A Plus Tard, bought for Euro 620k as a 6 yo gelding a year ago (yes, you read that right ..... Euro 620k, sans tackle)
only run at 3m in Feb beaten 7L but saw out the trip as 12 stone topweight on Sft/Hvy - form decent with winner then finishing 3rd in the Kim Muir off 5lbs higher
sire & first 3 damsires all won Group 1s at 12f+ (4 of last 11 GN winners were similar, from 25 runners = x6.2 outperformance)
represents the out-performing mitochondrial DNA haplotype N2a (4 of last 8 winners = x4.3 outperformance
Has no chance because:
not a spring horse: all 6 wins have come Oct~Feb (0 from 8 in Mar~Apr)
inadequate form at 3m: all but 2 GN winners since at least 1988 had at least 1 chase win at 3m+ and the 2 exceptions had both made the frame in a Class 1 chase at 3m+
BROADWAY BOY
Is nailed on because:
2nd season chaser: 9 of last 10 GN winners were 1st or 2nd season chasers, from only 28% of GN runners: x3.2 outperformance
from x2 GN winning yard of Nigel Twiston-Davies
notched career-best RPR158 when close 2nd in November's Coral Gold Cup - on that form has a 3lb pull with Kandoo Kid and enjoys an 8lb RPR premium to GNOR150 (average of last 11 winners GNOR+8lbs)
Has no chance because:
lousy form: 2 poor runs since Newbury, jumping poorly in both
naff sire: sons of Malinas have had 4 GN runs - all 4 Pulled Up
Wild Risk (the key French sire of the mid 20th Century) is entirely absent from his pedigree: pedigrees of 134 GN runners since 2013 were likewise (31.4% of fields, from which random distribution should lead us to have expected 3~4 winners). They produced ZERO winners
COKO BEACH
Is nailed on because:
loves the GN fences (2nd in last season's Becher Chase), ignore last 2 GN runs as much too high in the weights. Has tumbled down the handicap with clever campaigning since and now runs off the same GNOR150 as when 8th on GN debut in 2022 (disputing lead from early to 2 out).
proved he gets 4 miles with near-miss in the La Touche XC last May on Yielding (and was travelling well in October's 34f Pardubice on Good when unseating 4 out) and similar ground and a sensible ride will get him home
Has no chance because:
4th time definitely not lucky: only 4 of the 951 horses to run in a GN since 1988 have even made the frame after 2 prior GN fails (Bonanza Boy in 1991, Master Oats 1997 & Risk Accessor 2006, all 5th on 3rd attempt and only Black Apalachi went close to winning when 5L 2nd in 2010). None have done so after 3 prior fails.
Comments
Though Ino was anticipated, his withdrawal and that of a fair few others in the top 40 of the weights, was quite a rock chucked in the pool as regards the betting market and, indeed, the outsiders still flashing away on my radar screen, not as potential winners but as tastily-priced frame-makers.
Now only 5 horses have the racing CVs to win this GN, according to my model. In order of strength of Racing CV relative to allotted weight:
1 Intense Raffles *2 Kandoo Kid *
3 Vanillier
4 Minella Cocooner
5 Iroko *
* = 2nd season chaser
We're also down to only 5 runners with 4+ of the model's 14 “litmus-test” pedigree traits in common with GN winners. In order of strength of Pedigree:
2 Kandoo Kid = 6
3 Minella Cocooner = 5
4 (joint) Conflated, Vanillier = 4
Next Best (strong place potential): (joint) Royale Pagaille, Nick Rockett, Minella Indo, Iroko, Senior Chief, Coko Beach, Meetingofthewaters, Twig
FYI, Intense Raffles has 1, which is consistent with ability to make the frame but typically 12~20L adrift of the "typical winner".
So, my model’s final selections are unchanged, save for the elevation of Intense Raffles:
1 KANDOO KID now best-price 25/1
2 VANILLIER 16/1 and MINELLA COCOONER 40/1
4 IROKO 8/1
5 INTENSE RAFFLES 7/1
I'm on each way (4~6 places) on the top 4 and have a win saver on Intense Raffles and have some dry powder for extended place bets on those at the periphery of my radar screen that the market's written off.
Of the remaining possibles, Conflated has an interesting pedigree but his season's form is way short of what's needed and he looks to me like a horse that's likely to spit the dummy rather than feel re-invigorated by his first sight of the spruce.
Of those with the Next Best pedigrees (3 Pedigree Pluses), other than Iroko, the closest to having a frame-making Racing CV are Senior Chief (66/1, 5 places) and Minella Indo (50/1, 6 places), being Henry de Bromhead's only remaining entries.
A notable plus is that the yard has hit some decent form: 73% Running-to-Form, including 2 wins and 9 places from 24 runners at the Festival.
Minella Indo seems to be a forgotten horse, being 9lbs better off with I Am Maximus for his 8L 3rd last year, though it's fair to say the tank looked empty.
Since 2013, horses that have placed (2~5) have a x2.7 outperformance factor in repeating the feat (Cappa Bleu, Oscar Time, Alvarado, Saint Are, Anibale Fly, Any Second Now and Delta Work all obliging).
Indo handles any ground but at 12 years of age, the GN stats say he'd need slow ground to be in the mix.
Senior Chief's jumping can be less than fluent and the blot on his CV is his PU in last April's Irish GN on heavy ground. But there is a possible excuse for that, as mentioned in a previous post, and de Bromhead has always regarded him as an Aintree National type
He was staying on well under topweight in the Coral Gold Cup on the sort of ground they'll likely get at Aintree.
His pedigree supports him having a sniff, being by Gentlewave (sire of 4 mile winner Easysland and other stayers) and sharing his damsire (Saddlers Hall) with The Big Dog (GN 5th). He's from the family of Monanore (GN 3rd and 6th, 1988 & 89) and, if you want an omen, his uncle was the 26f winner for the Tizzards, Bob Bob Bobbin.
He's a 2nd season chaser (strongly favoured) but only has 6 chases to his name - the fewest for any GN winner since at least 1988 was 7 for Noble Yeats and, even of frame-makers, only Shutthefrontdoor (5th in 2015) had as few as 6.
Neither of these should win the GN but they do have the racing and breeding profiles to figure in the minor places at decent prices. I'll await the extended place-only offerings from Bet365 in due course to think about investing a shilling.
But a word of caution, which @RobinKeepsBobbin is acutely switched on to. One of them will, presumably, be ridden by Rachel Blackmore. Expect the price to be cut meaningfully the instant she selects her steed.
Appreciate It
Capodanno
Celebre d'Allen
Chemical Energy
Escaria Ten
Fantastic Lady
Minella Crooner
Minella Drama
Richmond Lake
Shakem Up'arry
Spanish Harlem
Twig
Aside from preserving Senior Chief's price pending the place only offers, Darragh O'Keefe was on board for his 2 best chase RPRs.
So 3 of those on 147 now guaranteed a run.
2 more to make certain for Vanillier, I think.
Seems others thought the same as he’s now 50s best price.
Will still have a shilling at extended places if the price looks right when they’re offered.
i think it was just bet365 were out of line at 66.
APPRECIATE IT
Is the nailed-on Winner because:
Has no chance because:
CAPODANNO
Is nailed-on because:
- ignore his 2 prior GNs - got caught up in the mayhem of 2023 and stumbled badly early doors last time, costing him his chance
- come bang into form with a fine 3rd in the Bobbyjo, just 6L behind GN fav Intense Raffles GN fav. Handicapped to finish just 7L behind him at Aintree but, unlike Intense Raffles, he's won this side of the Irish Sea. Should be much shorter than 66/1
Has no chance because:MINELLA COCOONER
Is nailed-on because:
- best 2 RPRs have come over furthest trips attempted (29f)
- from family of GN winner Hedgehunter, his sire (Flemensfirth), damsire (Old Vic) and 2nd damsire (Roselier) sired or damsired 5 GN winners between them (Noble Yeats / Comply Or Die & Don't Push It / Royal Athlete & Bindaree) and, together, account for another 9 GN runners-up (including King Johns Castle, The Last Samuri & Magic Of Light / Black Apalachi & Sunnyhillboy / Suny Bay twice)
Has no chance because:CONFLATED
Is nailed-on because:
- now 11lb lower than his highest winning mark
- fine 3rd behind GDC in the GC 2 years ago
- from family of GN winners Grittar and Maori Venture, his sire (Yeats) and first 3 damsires (Presenting, Strong Gale and Choral Society) sired or damsired 7 to make the first 3 in a GN, including winners Miinnehoma, Ballabriggs and Noble Yeats.
Has no chance because:STUMPTOWN
Is nailed-on because:
- stamina his forte: aside from when badly hampered and unseating in the 4m La Touche when prominent, is unbeaten over furthest trip attempted (2 from 2 at 29.5f)
- in great form: upped career-high chase RPR by 7lbs to 165 when winning the Festival XC, despite saddle having slipped
Has no chance because:TBC .....
HITMAN
Is the nailed-on Winner because:
Has no chance because:
BEAUPORT
Is nailed-on because:
- has bags of stamina: other than I Am Maximus, the only horse in the field that's won over 34f (last season's Midlands National on testing ground)
- in great form: set new career-high RPR160 when trouncing the field at Ascot in last chase outing in November over 29.5f and was subsequently a fine runner-up in the Rendlesham hurdle on GS
- trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies knows what it takes: won the GN twice (Earth Summit and Bindaree)
- same colours (and owner) as Corbiere, who won the 1983 GN
- an old-fashioned GN-type: inherited the mitochondrial DNA L2b1a from his mum: runners with that or near-identical mtDNA accounted for 11% of GN runners but 26% of winners (Rhyme n Reason, Party Politics, Earth Summit, Montys Pass, Mon Mome and Ballabriggs) from 1988~2012 (winning outperformance x2.4)
Has no chance because:BRAVEMANSGAME
Is nailed-on because:
- nice weight: other than old-timer Minella Indo, Bravemansgame has the highest premium (+19lbs) of career-best chase RPR174 (notched 2 years ago when just 7L behind GDC in the GC - furthest trip attempted) to GNOR 155
- trip could be right up his street: never tried beyond the GC trip but is from the family of Synchronised and GN winner Rough Quest
Has no chance because:CHANTRY HOUSE
Is nailed-on because:
- 54% win ratio from 13 chases, with the pick of them in the Grade 1 Mildmay at the 2021 GN meeting
- likely to be the sole representative this year of the rare mitochondrial DNA M1a, which has a strong record in GNs since 1988 (even better since 2013): 31 runners (2.4% of fields) have produced 10 frame-makers, 7 in the first 3 (x2.4 outperformance to 2012 and x3.9 since), including 2 winners (Mr Frisk and Corach Rambler)
Has no chance because:THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE
Is nailed-on because:
- staying-on 4th 6L in 4m Scottish GN 2 years ago (furthest trip attempted), he'll love the likely decent surface
- from the family of Hedgehunter, his 2nd damsire Garde Royale has strong GN connections, siring and dam-siring runners-up Royal Auclair and Balko Des Flos respectively.
- in good form, matching career-high RPR159 (6lbs premium to GNOR) last time
Has no chance because:Much appreciated.
Apologies folks. A bit got left off somehow when I posted yesterday. Here's the complete version:
MINELLA COCOONER
Is nailed-on because:
Has no chance because:
More shortly
PERCEVAL LEGALLOIS
Is the nailed-on Winner because:
- won a key GN trial: December's big field Paddy Power Handicap at Leopardstown - one of 2 key Irish pointers to modern GN success, especially for JP's runners: Gilgamboa (4th PP, 4th GN 2016), Anibale Fly (1st PP, 4th GN 2018), Minella Times (2nd PP, 1st GN 2021). And Noble Yeats was a respectable 9th in the PP before his GN victory in 2022.
- form of that race franked by Nick Rockett (4th), with back-to-back wins in the Thyestes (off a higher mark) and Bobbyjo; and 3 of the next 4 home that won or were placed at The Festival
- Perceval followed up himself by winning a big handicap hurdle at the same track - last outing
- 2nd season chaser AND an 8 year old - the sweetest of sweet spots: 2nd season chasers outperform x3.2 their representation in producing GN winners but those that were also 8 year olds are more potent still, producing 5 of the last 9 GN winners (55.6%) from just 47 runners (13.5% = x4.1 outperformance)
- sired by Ballingarry, a grandson of Northern Dancer: GN runners with ND in their topline have produced all 11 winners since 2013 from 59% of runners (x1.7 outperformance)
Has no chance because:KANDOO KID
Is nailed-on because:
Has no chance because:
IROKO
Is nailed-on because:
Has no chance because:
INTENSE RAFFLES
Is nailed-on because:
- 2nd season chaser ...... ZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzz
- 4 from 4 (wins and near-misses) over fences since arriving from France, winning last year's Irish GN (11-04 on Heavy), the form of which is decent (3 of the 6 behind winning subsequently off the same or up to 6lbs higher marks)
- even better run last time out when 0.75L 2nd in Bobbyjo to Nick Rockett, giving him 3lbs. On the form of the Bobbyjo, he'll have a stone or more in hand of both Nick Rockett and Minella Cocooner
- that run made him officially 5lbs+ well-in for the GN and notched a new career-high RPR160 (+9lb premium to GNOR - average +8lb for last 11 GN winners)
- by Martaline (sire of GN close 2nd Vanillier), a descendant of Northern Dancer: GN runners with ND in their topline have produced all 11 winners since 2013 from 59% of runners (x1.7 outperformance)
- related to Ucello Conti (GN 6th) and to a 4m Hunter Chase winner, Coup De Pinceau (also a creditable 8th in the Scottish GN)
- inbred to Mill Reef: as were 6 other horses that have run in GNs since 2013, including One For Arthur and GN 2nd Balko Des Flos
Has no chance because:SENIOR CHIEF
Is nailed-on because:
- 2nd season chaser AND an 8 year old - the sweetest of sweet spots: 5 of the last 9 GN winners (55.6%) from just 47 runners (13.5% = x4.1 outperformance)
- in chase debut just 3L behind Inothewayurthinkin at level weights early last season and will have a 3lb pull vs Minella Cocooner based on his close 2nd to him next run
- you can disregard his PU in the Irish GN on Heavy - his 3rd run in quick succession on testing ground.
- best form (x2 best RPRs) is on a decent surface - which he's likely to see at Aintree - including a stoutly staying on 6th in the Coral Gold Cup under topweight in November
- by Gentlewave (sire of 4 mile winner Easysland), he shares his damsire (Saddlers Hall) with The Big Dog (GN 5th) and is from the family of Monanore (GN 3rd and 6th, 1988 & 89)
- from GN-winning yard of Henry de Bromhead ("the English National has always been in my head for him"), he could be piloted by GN-winning jockey Rachel Blackmore
Has no chance because:Blimey, I need a bevvy ....
It will be his third GN if he lines up.
Thomson said: "He's qualified for the National, but the officials want to see him start with no discrepancies. We've changed things around and he went around a point-to-point course and also galloped here fine. We're hopeful nothing will happen and it'll have him spot on for Aintree."
Edit - wasn't too far behind and is now with the rest of the field
Good to avoid wasting a starting berth but such a shame.
What might have been?
Bluffers' Guide continued
From the sublime to the ridiculous:
IDAS BOY
Is the nailed-on Winner because:
- originally a £155k Gigginstown purchase, career-best with last July's win over the furthest trip attempted, the 25.5f Kilbeggan National; notably on a decent surface that he's likely to get at Aintree
- from family of GN 4th & 5th Addington Boy and bought in January specifically to run in the GN
- miracles happen
Has no chance because:MR INCREDIBLE
FIL DOR
Is nailed on because:
- close relative of Gold Cup winner A Plus Tard, bought for Euro 620k as a 6 yo gelding a year ago (yes, you read that right ..... Euro 620k, sans tackle)
- only run at 3m in Feb beaten 7L but saw out the trip as 12 stone topweight on Sft/Hvy - form decent with winner then finishing 3rd in the Kim Muir off 5lbs higher
- sire & first 3 damsires all won Group 1s at 12f+ (4 of last 11 GN winners were similar, from 25 runners = x6.2 outperformance)
- represents the out-performing mitochondrial DNA haplotype N2a (4 of last 8 winners = x4.3 outperformance
Has no chance because:BROADWAY BOY
Is nailed on because:
- 2nd season chaser: 9 of last 10 GN winners were 1st or 2nd season chasers, from only 28% of GN runners: x3.2 outperformance
- from x2 GN winning yard of Nigel Twiston-Davies
- notched career-best RPR158 when close 2nd in November's Coral Gold Cup - on that form has a 3lb pull with Kandoo Kid and enjoys an 8lb RPR premium to GNOR150 (average of last 11 winners GNOR+8lbs)
Has no chance because:COKO BEACH
Is nailed on because:
- loves the GN fences (2nd in last season's Becher Chase), ignore last 2 GN runs as much too high in the weights. Has tumbled down the handicap with clever campaigning since and now runs off the same GNOR150 as when 8th on GN debut in 2022 (disputing lead from early to 2 out).
- proved he gets 4 miles with near-miss in the La Touche XC last May on Yielding (and was travelling well in October's 34f Pardubice on Good when unseating 4 out) and similar ground and a sensible ride will get him home
Has no chance because:A perfect summary of the horse right there. Basically, no-one knows what he might do.