Sadly i only bet using Peanuts picks for the GN these days and Bob's old lot have frozen my account and won't let me deposit any money.
Fingers crossed for runners as SkyBet would allow me to place bets and i had a few quid with Bet365 that when i finally get it back i will too those bets up 😀
Been told that the Gold Cup winner sustained quite a deep cut on his hind leg during the race. Apparently he tried to kick the lady vet who examined him.
What a top bloke - no wonder JP and Noreen trust him with the progeny of their top mare. As you said @Addick Addict , they knew what they had. All fine with INO after the GC, despite the cut. Seems like the options are GN ("very tempting") or Punchestown GC. "More Gold Cups to be won.... he's only 7". "Jumping sticky last year, improved this season. Last thing you want to do is go to Aintree, give him a fright and put him on the back foot". Sounds to me like GC leans cautious. May boil down to whether JP prizes more the Golden Miller or Arkle crowns before he pops his clogs. That will be a very sad day for NH racing in the British Isles - hopefully plans in place for the Green and Gold dynasty to roll on, in some form.
Want to put the know-it-all at work in his or her or their place or just stun your buddies down the boozer with your forensic knowledge of racing?
Look no further than the Bluffers Guide to the
2025 GN - the drop-mic facts as to why each horse in the field will, or will not, win this year's Grand National:
Part 1 (of quite a few):
I AM MAXIMUS
Is the nailed-on Winner because:
pedigree says he's even better than Tiger Roll. Both sired by Authorized (whose sons have 3 wins from 4 GN runs) AND the first3 Damsires of both not only won Group 1s at 8f+ but had
offspring that did likewise at 10f+: runners with this combo won 4 GNs from 22 runs (x7 outperformance)
but, unlike Tiger, he inherited from his mum the "golden" mitochondrial DNA N2a (responsible for energy creation): since 2016, 4 GN winners from 27 runners:
x5.7 outperformance)
Has no chance because:
no horse has won the GN with topweight for 51 years
no GN winner had fewer than 3 prior runs in the season for at least
37 years (Max has had 2)
ROYALE PAGAILLE
Is nailed-on because:
150/1 but trained by Venetia Williams who trained the 100/1 GN jaw-dropper Mon Mome (which you backed, of course)
he's from the family of Best Mate,
Kittys Light (x2 winner over 4 miles and GN5th) and Gaillard Du
Mesnil (GN 3rd) and, like them, he has the "golden" mitchondrial
DNA N2a (4 of last 8 GN winners: x5.7 outperformance)
his rare 3rd Damsire Taine was one of only 3 back-to-back winners
since WWII of the marathon French Group 1 Prix Du Cadran
Has no chance because:
he's shite anywhere other than Haydock (5 of 6 wins there, the other at Kempton)
won't get the trip: yet to make the frame in 6 attempts at 26f+
not a Spring horse: all 7 wins have come Nov~Jan (14 runs) - never won in any other month (16 attempts)
NICK ROCKETT
Is nailed-on because:
like last GN winner I Am Maximus, won the Bobbyjo Chase in his
final prep. Hedgehunter also did the Bobbyjo/GN same season double in 2005
and Rathvinden followed his Bobbyjo win with a GN near-miss (5L 3rd) in
2019. All 4 for Willie Mullins.
2nd season chaser: 9 of last 10 GN winners were 1st or 2nd season
chasers, from only 28% of GN runners: x3.2 outperformance
Has no chance because:
wears black silks: 30 horses with predominantly black silks have run in the last 11 GNs - none has made the first 5 home
silly fuckers ran him in January's Thyestes. That win put him up 11lbs, giving him 11.08 to
shoulder in the GN: none of the 9 horses to attempt the Thyestes & GN same
season double has even made the first 5 home at Aintree
Intense Raffles walloped him in the Irish GN and has a stone in
hand of him at the GN weights; Minella Coccooner, who beat him in the
Bet365 Gold Cup, has 12lbs in hand
L'HOMME PRESSE
Is nailed-on because:
trained by Venetia Williams who trained ..... yadda,
yadda, yadda
x2 Grade 1 winner over fences, he's very nicely-weighted with GN mark 163, 7lbs below career-high Official Rating and 9lbs below best Racing Post Rating (average of last 11 GN winners = 8lbs below best RPR)
won January's Cotswold Chase, won by Many Clouds prior to his 2015
GN victory
Has no chance because:
will hate the occasion: never raced against more than 11 rivals over hurdles or fences and
never beaten more than 8
won't get the trip: ran out of gas in his only attempt at 26f and pedigree has
zero in common with even GN frame-makers: he inherited the mitochondrial DNA G2 (15 GN runners have drawn a total blank since 2013)
will shine over the extended trip: his uncle (Auvergnat) won (and set his career-high RPR) in the La
Touche (33.5f XC at Punchestown) in his only attempt at 4m
Has no chance because:
much better over shorter: 65% win record at 16~21f, compared to 29% at 24f
much better in winter months: never made the frame in 5 runs 17
Mar~27 April
I can't see Inothewayurthinkin lining up in the GN for the reasons already alluded to. Its a shorter gap to Aintree and JP must be thinking about Synchronized in this. But must be tempting- this could well be their only opportunity to run him in the GN, if ever.
finished 2.5L ahead of Inothewayurthinkin on the latter's prior outing before Gold Cup glory and, though conceding 3lbs, goes to Aintree much fresher (last run a gentle spin 34 days prior)
2nd season chaser ..... yadda, yadda
Has no chance because:
too inexperienced: only 6 chases to date - no horse has won the GN for at least 37 years with as few prior runs over fences (average 12 for last 11 GN winners)
HEWICK
Is nailed-on because:
on Good ground, which he must have, he has a 63% win rate over fences and is unbeaten at 29f+ (2 from 2)
Has no chance because:
even Good-to-Soft (the quickest they'll allow for a GN) won't be quick enough for him: <13% win rate on anything softer than Good
INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN
Is nailed-on because:
best handicapped horse in the race (15lbs well-in)
unbeaten over fences in the Spring (3 from 3) and unbeaten at 25f+ (3 from 3)
Has no chance because:
no horse has done the the Gold Cup/GN same season double for 91 years (Golden Miller)
MONTYS STAR
Is nailed-on because:
forget his defeat in the Gold Cup (was badly hampered), he'll relish the GN trip: related to top class stayer of the 80s/90s Bonanza Boy (4m and x2 Welsh National winner and GN 5th)
Has no chance because:
closely related to Mr Incredible who's as nutty as a fruitcake
MINELLA INDO
Is nailed-on because:
9lbs better off with I Am Maximus for his 8L 4th last year
yard (de Bromhead) coming into excellent form: 2 wins and 9 places from 24 runners at Cheltenham
Has no chance because:
a 12 year old hasn't won the GN for 21 years, and that was a fluke (Amberleigh House catching the wandering Clan Royal, whose jockey had lost his whip, on the line)
Envoi Allen Inothewayurthinkin Gentlemansgame Monty’s Star The Real Whacker Galvin Trelawne Limerick Lace Pinkerton Git Maker Gericault Roque
By my reckoning, that means 2 of the 5 on GNOR147 (Monbeg Genius, Vanillier, Horantzau d'Airy, Hyland and Celebre d'Allen) are now guaranteed a run (Fontaine Collonges has already been dropped to 143). Not sure what the relative current ORs are among those 5 - looks like they all may still be 147.
Bear in mind Royale Pagaille, who remains in for the moment, must have soft ground and the forecast is dry.
Sorry folks, miscounted, thinking it's 36 runners. It's 34 of course. So Vanillier needs at least 1 more to withdraw from above him. If 5 do so, he's definitely in.
Envoi Allen Inothewayurthinkin Gentlemansgame Monty’s Star The Real Whacker Galvin Trelawne Limerick Lace Pinkerton Git Maker Gericault Roque
By my reckoning, that means 2 of the 5 on GNOR147 (Monbeg Genius, Vanillier, Horantzau d'Airy, Hyland and Celebre d'Allen) are now guaranteed a run (Fontaine Collonges has already been dropped to 143). Not sure what the relative current ORs are among those 5 - looks like they all may still be 147.
Bear in mind Royale Pagaille, who remains in for the moment, must have soft ground and the forecast is dry.
Interesting that Zanahiyr remains in. Wouldn't be surprised to see him given a Topham entry as well.
My gamble on cashing out on Inothewayurthinkin and putting it on the horse for the GC paid off. One of my few gambles that have actually paid off. And Mr Incredible is still in the race. He's actually entered at Kelso on Saturday. I would hope that they do run it at Kelso and if it refuses to race that they retire it rather than persist with it as a day out for the owners and let one of those currently not in the race a chance.
Apologies again folks. Zanahiyr has failed to qualify for the GN as his best is 5th in a 3m+ chase. The stipulation is at least 4th. Same goes for French Dynamite. So, 2 of the GNOR147s are indeed already guaranteed a run. Worst-case, Vanillier needs up to 3 more on 147+ (excl Fontaine Collonges) to be scratched to be certain of making the cut.
Apologies again folks. Zanahiyr has failed to qualify for the GN as his best is 5th in a 3m+ chase. The stipulation is at least 4th. Same goes for French Dynamite. So, 2 of the GNOR147s are indeed already guaranteed a run.
Apologies again folks. Zanahiyr has failed to qualify for the GN as his best is 5th in a 3m+ chase. The stipulation is at least 4th. Same goes for French Dynamite. So, 2 of the GNOR147s are indeed already guaranteed a run.
Is Placenet also not qualified?
Yeap, you're right.
Racing Post card has now caught up with all the withdrawals/eliminations.
Showing Vanillier as 34 but that will depend on relative current ORs vs Monbeg Genius, Horantzau d'Airy, Hyland and Celebre d'Allen. Only Vanillier and Hyland have run since the weights were allotted and both made the frame. Could be down to lots unless 3 more come out.
Apologies again folks. Zanahiyr has failed to qualify for the GN as his best is 5th in a 3m+ chase. The stipulation is at least 4th. Same goes for French Dynamite. So, 2 of the GNOR147s are indeed already guaranteed a run.
Is Placenet also not qualified?
Yeap, you're right.
Racing Post card has now caught up with all the withdrawals/eliminations.
Showing Vanillier as 34 but that will depend on relative current ORs vs Monbeg Genius, Horantzau d'Airy, Hyland and Celebre d'Allen. Only Vanillier and Hyland have run since the weights were allotted and both made the frame. Could be down to lots unless 3 more come out.
If down to lots PM, would Vanillier be fine to back without NRNB (at better odds I am assuming) as this is balloting out so you'd get stake back?
My gamble on cashing out on Inothewayurthinkin and putting it on the horse for the GC paid off.
I've also cashed Ino out before GC, and made money on the cashing out itself because I had him on 33/1 and they've offered quite a lot more for cancelling the bet.
If they run Mr. Incredible at Kelso on Saturday it would surely mean he will not run at Aintree.
They may figure if he enjoys himself he'll go to Aintree revved up to run. Won't necessarily bottom him. Bless The Wings came 3rd in 2018 after running in the Irish GN 12 days prior. Depends on the horse.
Apologies again folks. Zanahiyr has failed to qualify for the GN as his best is 5th in a 3m+ chase. The stipulation is at least 4th. Same goes for French Dynamite. So, 2 of the GNOR147s are indeed already guaranteed a run.
Is Placenet also not qualified?
Yeap, you're right.
Racing Post card has now caught up with all the withdrawals/eliminations.
Showing Vanillier as 34 but that will depend on relative current ORs vs Monbeg Genius, Horantzau d'Airy, Hyland and Celebre d'Allen. Only Vanillier and Hyland have run since the weights were allotted and both made the frame. Could be down to lots unless 3 more come out.
If down to lots PM, would Vanillier be fine to back without NRNB (at better odds I am assuming) as this is balloting out so you'd get stake back?
If they run Mr. Incredible at Kelso on Saturday it would surely mean he will not run at Aintree.
They may figure if he enjoys himself he'll go to Aintree revved up to run. Won't necessarily bottom him. Bless The Wings came 3rd in 2018 after running in the Irish GN 12 days prior. Depends on the horse.
It is easy to forget that there was some big money for him last year and he started as short as 10/1.
If they run Mr. Incredible at Kelso on Saturday it would surely mean he will not run at Aintree.
I think it really depends how it comes out of the race. It's not ideal but there are still two weeks and the owners have kept it in the GN so one would assume that this is still the target, As it hasn't actually "run" for 10 months, it will probably need a race of some description to put it spot on even if it becomes a bit of an "educational test". They could bypass the GN but if it is back to his best, it might not get the same opportunity on this mark and weight and equally they wouldn't know for sure if they do opt to take up the engagement of the GN if all the work that they have been doing off course has sweetened the horse.
Comments
Fingers crossed for runners as SkyBet would allow me to place bets and i had a few quid with Bet365 that when i finally get it back i will too those bets up 😀
Same day as Charlton v Lincoln.
Very enlightening interview with Gavin Cromwell and Inothewayurthinkin.
What a top bloke - no wonder JP and Noreen trust him with the progeny of their top mare.
As you said @Addick Addict , they knew what they had.
All fine with INO after the GC, despite the cut.
Seems like the options are GN ("very tempting") or Punchestown GC.
"More Gold Cups to be won.... he's only 7".
"Jumping sticky last year, improved this season. Last thing you want to do is go to Aintree, give him a fright and put him on the back foot".
Sounds to me like GC leans cautious.
May boil down to whether JP prizes more the Golden Miller or Arkle crowns before he pops his clogs. That will be a very sad day for NH racing in the British Isles - hopefully plans in place for the Green and Gold dynasty to roll on, in some form.
And Stumptown seems to be looking to his right while running, at the audience, as if to say: look how easy it is!
I hope it's Punchestown rather than GN. But we'll see, I guess.
Want to put the know-it-all at work in his or her or their place or just stun your buddies down the boozer with your forensic knowledge of racing?
Look no further than the Bluffers Guide to the 2025 GN - the drop-mic facts as to why each horse in the field will, or will not, win this year's Grand National:
Part 1 (of quite a few):
I AM MAXIMUS
Is the nailed-on Winner because:
Has no chance because:
ROYALE PAGAILLE
Is nailed-on because:
Has no chance because:
NICK ROCKETT
Is nailed-on because:
Has no chance because:
L'HOMME PRESSE
Is nailed-on because:
Has no chance because:
ENVOI ALLEN
Is nailed-on because:
Has no chance because:
TBC, as time permits ....
Its a shorter gap to Aintree and JP must be thinking about Synchronized in this.
But must be tempting- this could well be their only opportunity to run him in the GN, if ever.
Judging by the betting market, Gentlemansgame, The Real Whacker, Galvin and Trelawne are likely to be scratched.
GRANGECLARE WEST
Is the nailed-on Winner because:
Has no chance because:
HEWICK
Is nailed-on because:
- on Good ground, which he must have, he has a 63% win rate over fences and is unbeaten at 29f+ (2 from 2)
Has no chance because:INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN
Is nailed-on because:
- best handicapped horse in the race (15lbs well-in)
- unbeaten over fences in the Spring (3 from 3) and unbeaten at 25f+ (3 from 3)
Has no chance because:MONTYS STAR
Is nailed-on because:
- forget his defeat in the Gold Cup (was badly hampered), he'll relish the GN trip: related to top class stayer of the 80s/90s Bonanza Boy (4m and x2 Welsh National winner and GN 5th)
Has no chance because:MINELLA INDO
Is nailed-on because:
- 9lbs better off with I Am Maximus for his 8L 4th last year
- yard (de Bromhead) coming into excellent form: 2 wins and 9 places from 24 runners at Cheltenham
Has no chance because:Envoi Allen
Inothewayurthinkin
Gentlemansgame
Monty’s Star
The Real Whacker
Galvin
Trelawne
Limerick Lace
Pinkerton
Git Maker
Gericault Roque
By my reckoning, that means 2 of the 5 on GNOR147 (Monbeg Genius, Vanillier, Horantzau d'Airy, Hyland and Celebre d'Allen) are now guaranteed a run (Fontaine Collonges has already been dropped to 143). Not sure what the relative current ORs are among those 5 - looks like they all may still be 147.
Bear in mind Royale Pagaille, who remains in for the moment, must have soft ground and the forecast is dry.
It's 34 of course.
So Vanillier needs at least 1 more to withdraw from above him. If 5 do so, he's definitely in.
Zanahiyr has failed to qualify for the GN as his best is 5th in a 3m+ chase. The stipulation is at least 4th.
Same goes for French Dynamite.
So, 2 of the GNOR147s are indeed already guaranteed a run.
Worst-case, Vanillier needs up to 3 more on 147+ (excl Fontaine Collonges) to be scratched to be certain of making the cut.
Racing Post card has now caught up with all the withdrawals/eliminations.
Showing Vanillier as 34 but that will depend on relative current ORs vs Monbeg Genius, Horantzau d'Airy, Hyland and Celebre d'Allen. Only Vanillier and Hyland have run since the weights were allotted and both made the frame. Could be down to lots unless 3 more come out.
Won't necessarily bottom him. Bless The Wings came 3rd in 2018 after running in the Irish GN 12 days prior.
Depends on the horse.