If the top 40 as they now stand all line up on 9 April, for the first time in history a majority of the runners (23 to be precise) will be Irish-trained.
Meanwhile, entries for the Irish GN on Easter Monday, 9 days after Aintree include most of those Irish runners, plus Galvin and Kemboy at the top of the weights. There's also a fascinating possible British raider in the shape of impressive Ultima winner, Lucinda Russell’s Corach Rambler.
Was very sweet on this fella a couple of years ago when he was primed to run in the 2020 GN, sadly aborted for Covid. And the only reason he's not among my model's fancies this time is because he's been off the track since his creditable staying-on 7th in the 2020 Hennessy (possibly injured in the race) until a couple of weeks ago.
Though he ran really nicely on his return (travelled and jumped well and stayed on strongly) over an inadequate 20f at Newbury 18 days ago, stats-wise the lack of a win for 2 years and the late-start to his season leaves him short of the necessary. But if you fancy him at the price for an each-way interest, I would certainly not discourage you. There's a lot to like:
Unexposed beyond the 26f Hennessy trip but notched his best chase RPR158 twice in his only other runs beyond 24f, including when impressively winning the 18-runner Betway Hdcp Chase on the Mildmay course on GN day 2019 with all its hullaballoo (same OR148 as for this GN but has been up to 156 in the meantime) and when close 2nd in the 23-runner Ultima at the 2020 Festival (OR150). The way he's finished his 24~26f chases suggest he'd be at his best over further and his pedigree strongly indicates likewise.
Closely related to Rathvinden (GN 3rd 5L in 2019), his sire (Dubai Destination) has a promising early record (2 wins and 1 place from 4 runs) as regards his progeny's chase success over 4 miles+. And there are GN connections for his 2nd damsire (Strong Gale - ds to GN 2nd & 4th Cappa Bleu and 3rd Teaforthree) and 3rd ds (Tarqogan - ds to 1988 winner Rhyme n Reason and 1992 close 2nd Romany King)
Versatile as to going (maybe some juice would suit best) he'll carry a very workable 10.10 and IMO, barring mishap, can give a bold show for a long way. I just think lack of match-fitness may tell at the business end but, if mine get beaten, I'd love it to be this fella with the havana.
PS If you do fancy him, I'd move sharpish cos he's being nibbled at and is generally now 33s (still 40s with Bob)
Did you see the trainer's comments on Freewheeling Dylan PM? Saw it on the RP app couple days ago, he will run where the ground is best, be it Irish GN or Aintree- he also hinted the stature of the Aintree may be a greater pull, + judging at a long term forecast, I think we may get the better weather. Certainly hope so as I'm on at 80's thanks to you pal.
Cheers for that @Big_Bob Glad you're on at 80s. Hadn't seen his comments but makes total sense - must have a sound surface. He'll certainly go to Aintree if it is ("stature" plus loot). Forecast looks good for the moment - some rain about up to Thursday of the Meeting but no more than they'd put on anyway to keep it GS. They are watering now, given the fine weather, that's set to continue. Fingers crossed there's not more rain than anticipated during the meeting. All the best.
Barring a big change in the weather, my final pointer towards a seriously interesting each-way contender at the price, among those with a decent chance of making the cut. DEATH DUTY (still 40/1 with Hills 5 places 1/5 NRNB, though only 28s with Bet365 for 6 places), now #44 in the weights (guarantees 4th Reserve, so needs 4 to come out by the morning of the day before the race).
I have to confess my heart is a tad invested in this fella as he's related to one of mine that once plied his trade (sadly unsuccessfully) around the chase tracks of southern Britain, but this write-up is strictly on the objective merit of DD's GN stat-profile.
Though recent 24~28f form (directly vs Enjoy D'Allen and Longhouse Poet and collateral via Coko Beach) on paper gives him a bit to find with my A Team, his 12L 6th off his GN mark behind a very impressive winner of the Ultima, notably on quicker ground than he'd prefer, gives DD a winning-calibre stat-score. And while Soft would probably give him his best chance, he's shown enough this term on a decent surface (also in December's Paddy Power Hdcp, on return from a 393 day absence) to indicate that a test simply by trip may be as productive as one dependent on ground.
Grade 1 winner as a novice over both hurdles and fences (RPR162) and once rated OR159, he's now off OR144 but the 11 yo is enjoying a rejuvenation this season after a badly interrupted career since falling in his final outing as a novice (Dec 2017) - running only 6 times in 1,462 days (ave >200 days between races).
Whatever was ailing him for so long now looks sorted and he set a post-Novice personal best chase RPR149, notably over the furthest trip he's tried, when landing the 28f Irish GN Trial in Feb, finishing well under 11.04 on testing ground.
Pedigree points to 4 miles being within range, being from the family of Eider-winner and Scottish GN near-misser Crosspark. He enjoys the damside combination of Wild Risk and Bold Ruler, shared by each of the last 5 GN winners, as well as near-missers Saint Are, Magic Of Light and Rathvinden, with whom DD shares his damsire, Presenting (sire of GN winner Ballabriggs and near-misser Pleasant Company)
An 11 yo makes him slightly long in the tooth to win a modern GN (Auroras Encore and Pineau De Re were 11 but, of that seniority, only Rathvinden has come close since) but, for the reason explained, he has low mileage over fences, with only 13 chases to his name (9~23 is the range for GN winners and near-missers <5L since 2013).
Set to carry just 10.06 with 4 runs in the season (1 win and 2 minor places) is fine and, despite a competitive outing, his final prep 25 days prior is not out of place with modern GN winners and near-missers.
If he takes to the fences, he could be seriously in business at the Elbow.
Of the original Ayr entries (among those Aintree entries with any sort of chance of making the cut), only Fortescue and Go Another One remain at the 5 day stage today as possible runners in Saturday's Scottish National.
Topham entries (to be run over 21f the day before the big one) include 3 (Battleoverdoyen, Chatham Street Lad and Samcro) who are guaranteed a run in the GN if that's the preference. Difficult to see why they'd be given Topham entries unless it was a live possibility of them running over the shorter trip.
It's still an "if" but if the 2 above run at Ayr and the 3 run in the Topham, the cut for the GN would drop to (at least) OR143, with Eclair Surf the last one in. School Boy Hours would be guaranteed 1st or 2nd Reserve, needing a maximum of 2 more to be scratched to line up. But Eclair Surf was scratched from Ayr because the ground will not be soft enough and, unless it comes up with plenty of juice at Aintree, he may well be taken out at Declarations for the Big One. So could it be School Boy Hours scrapes in after all???
Forecast a little more mixed over the next 12 days in Liverpool including on all 3 race days, though nothing more than light showers.
Big news - Chris's Dream is also injured and misses the GN.
So, weights will rise another 1lb, with Minella Times (confirmed intended runner) shouldering topweight (a whopping 21lbs more than he carried to win last year). Delta Work will carry 11.09, Any Second Now 11.08 (13 lbs more than last year), Farclas 11.01 (12lbs more). The extra lb will make life relatively harder for all those already 11.00+. Running the slide rule over them once again.
Meanwhile my old buddy Cool Mix (currently 16/1) and Jersey Bean (25/1) catching my eye e/w for the Scottish. Want to see more places on offer before parting with my shillings.
Comments from Elliott about targets yesterday when making a battalion of entries for the Irish GN:
DEFINITES FOR AINTREE:
Mount Ida, Escaria Ten and Farclas Presumably also Delta Work NO DECISION YET:
Run Wild Fred may go to Fairyhouse rather than Aintree - makes sense as he'd run off 3lb lower mark in the Irish and that 30f NH Chase at the Festival is always a gruelling one for even the most talented novices. Samcro (also Topham entry) Coko Beach Battleoverdoyen not mentioned but with Topham entry presumably also a questionmark
He's very sweet on Death Duty for Fairyhouse (came out of the Ultima “very well”) and looks like he's going to swerve Aintree despite probably making the cut.
Big news - Chris's Dream is also injured and misses the GN.
So, weights will rise another 1lb, with Minella Times (confirmed intended runner) shouldering topweight (a whopping 21lbs more than he carried to win last year). Delta Work will carry 11.09, Any Second Now 11.08 (13 lbs more than last year), Farclas 11.01 (12lbs more). The extra lb will make life relatively harder for all those already 11.00+. Running the slide rule over them once again.
More anon.
Having snapped Delta Work up at 66s, would that make you keen to offload a bit of it with him around 10/1 now?
Big news - Chris's Dream is also injured and misses the GN.
So, weights will rise another 1lb, with Minella Times (confirmed intended runner) shouldering topweight (a whopping 21lbs more than he carried to win last year). Delta Work will carry 11.09, Any Second Now 11.08 (13 lbs more than last year), Farclas 11.01 (12lbs more). The extra lb will make life relatively harder for all those already 11.00+. Running the slide rule over them once again.
More anon.
Having snapped Delta Work up at 66s, would that make you keen to offload a bit of it with him around 10/1 now?
I haven’t cashed out my 66/1 e/w with Bet365 because the cash out value isn’t anything like 10/1 (more like 16s if my maths serve me) but I have laid off at 12s some of my Win position, struck at 70s on Betfair. Other than as a saver, I wouldn't back any GN runner to win at his current price so it seems a bit nuts not to take some profit. But he's one of 2 that I have an oversized interest in them winning (Freewheelin Dylan the other).
IMO, Delta's not particularly vulnerable from the extra lb. His profile was already good enough to carry 11.08 and he stacks up well CV-wise and relative to handicap marks with Many Clouds who won it with 11.09. Of the others of mine I’m more concerned with Fiddler and especially Longhouse Poet, both of whom were borderline at 11.03.
Fiddler really does have a great fit pedigree-wise with recent GN winners and he’s also similar campaign-wise to Many Clouds. BUT he would not want it Soft, so the weather's a factor as well. Longhouse Poet is tricky and I need to mull over his stats again, but that Thyestes win is arguably the best piece of 3m+ Irish handicap form this season. He'd appreciate some cut so again, weather will be a factor as to whether I cash out on him.
Also, the fact is there will be at least 14 runners with 11.00+ this year (last year only 6 and none made the frame). Force of numbers should give some pause for thought. The previous GNs with that sort of number were 2013 (x15 with 11.00+: only 1 made the frame then and the winner carried 10.03) but more interesting is 2019 (x14 and Tiger Roll won it with 11.05, Rathvinden was close 3rd with 11.00 and 4 made the first 6 home).
So I think you have to consider the alternatives at lighter weights. If School Boy Hours runs, he must be backed and that might make me more likely to trim my others, again depending on the weather.
But to answer your question re DW - no, not worried about his weight and not worried about going either. Still has a winning-calibre stat profile and on any ground.
Both Fortescue and Go Another One taken out of Saturday's Scottish GN so presumably fancying their chances of running at Aintree. If we assume that the 3 Topham entries among the top 40 in the GN weights (Battleoverdoyen, Samcro, Chatham Street Lad) head for Friday's race over 21f, that Chris's Dream and Run Wild Fred are non-runners and Death Duty is saved for Fairyhouse, that puts one of Eclair Surf and Fortescue (OR143 but both re-rated to 147) in and leaves the other as 1st Reserve. That would leave School Boy Hours (level on OR142 with Commodore, who also has a Topham entry) 2nd or 3rd Reserve. Casting over the remaining possible non-runners:
Coko Beach ("no decision yet" according to Elliott a couple of days ago)
Eclair Surf may not run if the ground is considered too quick, while Freewheelin Dylan, though it pains me to contemplate it, could be saved for the Irish if the ground were too soft
Others that prefer soft and may or may not take their chance if it's otherwise: Lord Du Mesnil (?), Top Ville Ben (probably will), Two For Gold (probably will)
One way or another, it's likely to go to the wire for School Boy. 50:50 I'd say given there's always the possibility of a niggle among 45 horses with a week to go to Decs. But I guess there's a question will he make the trip over without a certain starting berth or stay home for Fairyhouse.
But you're right, there are press reports today quoting him saying: “He unseated there last year when he looked to be going well and seemed to be enjoying himself, so we’ll see,"
I don't think Chris's Dream has any chance of winning so i assumed he had been left in to keep the weights down. But if he is injured he will of course have to be withdrawn.
Sorry for the stupid question but what qualifies a horse for the National?
Why would a 150/1 outsider like "The Two Amigos" be ahead of someone like School Boy who is 40/1. Assume the bookies base their odds on horse quality so based on odds alone why would a lesser quality horse get in the National ahead of a better one (if that makes sense)
The answer is the Grand National is a Handicap. The price of the horse is largely irrelevant. However The Two Amigos would not get in the race ahead of School boy hours. Amigos is rated 130 School Boy Hours is 142. The higher you are in the ratings the better your chance of getting in. However once in as a handicap every horse in theory is carry a weight that makes them even.
Minella times is rated 158 and will currently be Top Weight of 11-10
The answer is the Grand National is a Handicap. The price of the horse is largely irrelevant. However The Two Amigos would not get in the race ahead of School boy hours. Amigos is rated 130 School Boy Hours is 142. The higher you are in the ratings the better your chance of getting in. However once in as a handicap every horse in theory is carry a weight that makes them even.
Minella times is rated 158 and will currently be Top Weight of 11-10
Sure PM will expand if I’m wrong.
Brilliantly succinct and spot on answer to a not at all stupid question from Athetico. Though actually Minella Times' rating of OR158 is his Irish mark. He was given a mark of OR161 for the GN ....... but let's not go there!
Ah, thanks. I took the odds from 365 and had not thought about the fact that The Two Amigos would also miss the cut. 😂
You probably got Non Runner No Bet from Bet365 so you'll have your stake back after declarations next Thursday. Or you may be able to cash out now for what your full stake.
On the subject of non runners Peanuts, how likely do you think it is that Longhouse Poet and Dingo Dollar get a run?
100% barring injury. They’re both in the top 40 in the weights. Good and versatile combo - Dingo wants a decent surface, Poet would have best chance with proper cut (I guess the trainer might pull him out if he thinks it’s too quick - suspect that’s unlikely). Good luck.
Neptune Collonges and pal getting ready for the GN parade next week, He's still got those bloody whiskers that cost me plenty in 2012. Still, bloody nice horse and a worthy winner.
Any guidance @PeanutsMolloy where Bob’s free bet at Ayr should be going in the McNational?
If it's a free bet, especially as there are several with serious win credentials in the 10/1 or shorter territory, I would head for an outsider each way. Of those, for better or ill (no model in use here), I'm backing (as per the Sport of Kings thread): Cool Mix, now 12/1
staying on 5th (8L) in this last year - moderate season (but not disgraced at 22~25f) now sees him off 6lb lower mark and his useful claimer takes off 7lbs (so just 9.11 to carry)
from the family of the late and much-lamented stayer, Synchronised
yard (Iain Jardine) 100% RTF in last fortnight
Jersey Bean, now 25/1
very genuine 9 yo who stayed on strongly under 11.12 to win over 28f on GS at Haydock last time out (furthest trip attempted). Up 5lbs for that but pedigree screams out for 4 miles - again Wild Risk in the right place and related to stayer Cogry (runner up in this by a neck in 2017) and tough mare Marello
Innisfree Lad, now 33/1
placed in the Eider (mark set to go a lot closer to Win My Wings this time) and made for 4 miles (staying on close 3rd in December's Borders National over extended 4m) - Wild Risk and Bold Ruler combo on the damside floats my boat. Brian Hughes on board.
One More Fleurie, was 33/1 now into 18/1
this one is highly speculative as he's been in poor form this season (season's bow on unsuitable ground and finding the Hennessy and Ultima tests too hot to handle) but won over the course this time last year on ground to suit. Unbeaten in 3 chases at 3m on Good.
Yard (Ian Williams) in great form - 4 winners in last 14 days.
good staying notes in his pedigree - Wild Risk on the damside and related to 1974 big-weight Irish GN winner Colebridge
If it has to be a Win bet and you prefer to pick between the market favs, I'd plump for either Win My Wings (8/1) or Ashtown Lad (10/), plenty of stamina in his family.
Comments
Meanwhile, entries for the Irish GN on Easter Monday, 9 days after Aintree include most of those Irish runners, plus Galvin and Kemboy at the top of the weights.
There's also a fascinating possible British raider in the shape of impressive Ultima winner, Lucinda Russell’s Corach Rambler.
Just some thoughts on a very interesting runner whose current stats, sadly, just fall short as regards my model's ratings:
Kildisart (40/1 Bet365 6 places 1/5 odds, NRNB & BOG)
Was very sweet on this fella a couple of years ago when he was primed to run in the 2020 GN, sadly aborted for Covid. And the only reason he's not among my model's fancies this time is because he's been off the track since his creditable staying-on 7th in the 2020 Hennessy (possibly injured in the race) until a couple of weeks ago.
Though he ran really nicely on his return (travelled and jumped well and stayed on strongly) over an inadequate 20f at Newbury 18 days ago, stats-wise the lack of a win for 2 years and the late-start to his season leaves him short of the necessary. But if you fancy him at the price for an each-way interest, I would certainly not discourage you. There's a lot to like:
- Unexposed beyond the 26f Hennessy trip but notched his best chase RPR158 twice in his only other runs beyond 24f, including when impressively winning the 18-runner Betway Hdcp Chase on the Mildmay course on GN day 2019 with all its hullaballoo (same OR148 as for this GN but has been up to 156 in the meantime) and when close 2nd in the 23-runner Ultima at the 2020 Festival (OR150). The way he's finished his 24~26f chases suggest he'd be at his best over further and his pedigree strongly indicates likewise.
- Closely related to Rathvinden (GN 3rd 5L in 2019), his sire (Dubai Destination) has a promising early record (2 wins and 1 place from 4 runs) as regards his progeny's chase success over 4 miles+. And there are GN connections for his 2nd damsire (Strong Gale - ds to GN 2nd & 4th Cappa Bleu and 3rd Teaforthree) and 3rd ds (Tarqogan - ds to 1988 winner Rhyme n Reason and 1992 close 2nd Romany King)
- Versatile as to going (maybe some juice would suit best) he'll carry a very workable 10.10 and IMO, barring mishap, can give a bold show for a long way. I just think lack of match-fitness may tell at the business end but, if mine get beaten, I'd love it to be this fella with the havana.
PS If you do fancy him, I'd move sharpish cos he's being nibbled at and is generally now 33s (still 40s with Bob)Saw it on the RP app couple days ago, he will run where the ground is best, be it Irish GN or Aintree- he also hinted the stature of the Aintree may be a greater pull, + judging at a long term forecast, I think we may get the better weather. Certainly hope so as I'm on at 80's thanks to you pal.
Glad you're on at 80s.
Hadn't seen his comments but makes total sense - must have a sound surface. He'll certainly go to Aintree if it is ("stature" plus loot).
Forecast looks good for the moment - some rain about up to Thursday of the Meeting but no more than they'd put on anyway to keep it GS.
They are watering now, given the fine weather, that's set to continue.
Fingers crossed there's not more rain than anticipated during the meeting.
All the best.
DEATH DUTY (still 40/1 with Hills 5 places 1/5 NRNB, though only 28s with Bet365 for 6 places), now #44 in the weights (guarantees 4th Reserve, so needs 4 to come out by the morning of the day before the race).
I have to confess my heart is a tad invested in this fella as he's related to one of mine that once plied his trade (sadly unsuccessfully) around the chase tracks of southern Britain, but this write-up is strictly on the objective merit of DD's GN stat-profile.
Though recent 24~28f form (directly vs Enjoy D'Allen and Longhouse Poet and collateral via Coko Beach) on paper gives him a bit to find with my A Team, his 12L 6th off his GN mark behind a very impressive winner of the Ultima, notably on quicker ground than he'd prefer, gives DD a winning-calibre stat-score. And while Soft would probably give him his best chance, he's shown enough this term on a decent surface (also in December's Paddy Power Hdcp, on return from a 393 day absence) to indicate that a test simply by trip may be as productive as one dependent on ground.
- Grade 1 winner as a novice over both hurdles and fences (RPR162) and once rated OR159, he's now off OR144 but the 11 yo is enjoying a rejuvenation this season after a badly interrupted career since falling in his final outing as a novice (Dec 2017) - running only 6 times in 1,462 days (ave >200 days between races).
- Whatever was ailing him for so long now looks sorted and he set a post-Novice personal best chase RPR149, notably over the furthest trip he's tried, when landing the 28f Irish GN Trial in Feb, finishing well under 11.04 on testing ground.
- Pedigree points to 4 miles being within range, being from the family of Eider-winner and Scottish GN near-misser Crosspark. He enjoys the damside combination of Wild Risk and Bold Ruler, shared by each of the last 5 GN winners, as well as near-missers Saint Are, Magic Of Light and Rathvinden, with whom DD shares his damsire, Presenting (sire of GN winner Ballabriggs and near-misser Pleasant Company)
- An 11 yo makes him slightly long in the tooth to win a modern GN (Auroras Encore and Pineau De Re were 11 but, of that seniority, only Rathvinden has come close since) but, for the reason explained, he has low mileage over fences, with only 13 chases to his name (9~23 is the range for GN winners and near-missers <5L since 2013).
- Set to carry just 10.06 with 4 runs in the season (1 win and 2 minor places) is fine and, despite a competitive outing, his final prep 25 days prior is not out of place with modern GN winners and near-missers.
If he takes to the fences, he could be seriously in business at the Elbow.- Highland Hunter is a non-runner (leg injury)
- Of the original Ayr entries (among those Aintree entries with any sort of chance of making the cut), only Fortescue and Go Another One remain at the 5 day stage today as possible runners in Saturday's Scottish National.
- Topham entries (to be run over 21f the day before the big one) include 3 (Battleoverdoyen, Chatham Street Lad and Samcro) who are guaranteed a run in the GN if that's the preference. Difficult to see why they'd be given Topham entries unless it was a live possibility of them running over the shorter trip.
It's still an "if" but if the 2 above run at Ayr and the 3 run in the Topham, the cut for the GN would drop to (at least) OR143, with Eclair Surf the last one in.School Boy Hours would be guaranteed 1st or 2nd Reserve, needing a maximum of 2 more to be scratched to line up.
But Eclair Surf was scratched from Ayr because the ground will not be soft enough and, unless it comes up with plenty of juice at Aintree, he may well be taken out at Declarations for the Big One. So could it be School Boy Hours scrapes in after all???
Forecast a little more mixed over the next 12 days in Liverpool including on all 3 race days, though nothing more than light showers.
So, weights will rise another 1lb, with Minella Times (confirmed intended runner) shouldering topweight (a whopping 21lbs more than he carried to win last year).
Delta Work will carry 11.09, Any Second Now 11.08 (13 lbs more than last year), Farclas 11.01 (12lbs more).
The extra lb will make life relatively harder for all those already 11.00+. Running the slide rule over them once again.
More anon.
Want to see more places on offer before parting with my shillings.
DEFINITES FOR AINTREE:
Mount Ida, Escaria Ten and Farclas
Presumably also Delta Work
NO DECISION YET:
Run Wild Fred may go to Fairyhouse rather than Aintree - makes sense as he'd run off 3lb lower mark in the Irish and that 30f NH Chase at the Festival is always a gruelling one for even the most talented novices.
Samcro (also Topham entry)
Coko Beach
Battleoverdoyen not mentioned but with Topham entry presumably also a questionmark
He's very sweet on Death Duty for Fairyhouse (came out of the Ultima “very well”) and looks like he's going to swerve Aintree despite probably making the cut.
Of the others of mine I’m more concerned with Fiddler and especially Longhouse Poet, both of whom were borderline at 11.03.
Fiddler really does have a great fit pedigree-wise with recent GN winners and he’s also similar campaign-wise to Many Clouds. BUT he would not want it Soft, so the weather's a factor as well.
Longhouse Poet is tricky and I need to mull over his stats again, but that Thyestes win is arguably the best piece of 3m+ Irish handicap form this season. He'd appreciate some cut so again, weather will be a factor as to whether I cash out on him.
Also, the fact is there will be at least 14 runners with 11.00+ this year (last year only 6 and none made the frame). Force of numbers should give some pause for thought.
The previous GNs with that sort of number were 2013 (x15 with 11.00+: only 1 made the frame then and the winner carried 10.03) but more interesting is 2019 (x14 and Tiger Roll won it with 11.05, Rathvinden was close 3rd with 11.00 and 4 made the first 6 home).
So I think you have to consider the alternatives at lighter weights. If School Boy Hours runs, he must be backed and that might make me more likely to trim my others, again depending on the weather.
But to answer your question re DW - no, not worried about his weight and not worried about going either. Still has a winning-calibre stat profile and on any ground.
If we assume that the 3 Topham entries among the top 40 in the GN weights (Battleoverdoyen, Samcro, Chatham Street Lad) head for Friday's race over 21f, that Chris's Dream and Run Wild Fred are non-runners and Death Duty is saved for Fairyhouse, that puts one of Eclair Surf and Fortescue (OR143 but both re-rated to 147) in and leaves the other as 1st Reserve.
That would leave School Boy Hours (level on OR142 with Commodore, who also has a Topham entry) 2nd or 3rd Reserve.
Casting over the remaining possible non-runners:
- Coko Beach ("no decision yet" according to Elliott a couple of days ago)
- Eclair Surf may not run if the ground is considered too quick, while Freewheelin Dylan, though it pains me to contemplate it, could be saved for the Irish if the ground were too soft
- Others that prefer soft and may or may not take their chance if it's otherwise: Lord Du Mesnil (?), Top Ville Ben (probably will), Two For Gold (probably will)
One way or another, it's likely to go to the wire for School Boy. 50:50 I'd say given there's always the possibility of a niggle among 45 horses with a week to go to Decs.But I guess there's a question will he make the trip over without a certain starting berth or stay home for Fairyhouse.
This from the Irish Times on Tuesday is what alerted me to his being scratched:
De Bromhead plans to be triple-handed at Aintree this time with Minella Times joined by Court Maid and Poker Party. However, Chris’s Dream, who unseated his rider four out a year ago, will miss the race. “Chris’s Dream had a setback so won’t go,” De Bromhead said.
https://www.irishtimes.com/sport/racing/henry-de-bromhead-believes-muscle-issue-behind-bob-olinger-s-cheltenham-display-1.4839416?localLinksEnabled=false
But you're right, there are press reports today quoting him saying: “He unseated there last year when he looked to be going well and seemed to be enjoying himself, so we’ll see,"
Have to confess, I don't know which is right.
Why would a 150/1 outsider like "The Two Amigos" be ahead of someone like School Boy who is 40/1. Assume the bookies base their odds on horse quality so based on odds alone why would a lesser quality horse get in the National ahead of a better one (if that makes sense)
Sure PM will expand if I’m wrong.
Though actually Minella Times' rating of OR158 is his Irish mark. He was given a mark of OR161 for the GN ....... but let's not go there!
Good and versatile combo - Dingo wants a decent surface, Poet would have best chance with proper cut (I guess the trainer might pull him out if he thinks it’s too quick - suspect that’s unlikely).
Good luck.
Neptune Collonges and pal getting ready for the GN parade next week,
He's still got those bloody whiskers that cost me plenty in 2012. Still, bloody nice horse and a worthy winner.
Of those, for better or ill (no model in use here), I'm backing (as per the Sport of Kings thread):
Cool Mix, now 12/1
- staying on 5th (8L) in this last year - moderate season (but not disgraced at 22~25f) now sees him off 6lb lower mark and his useful claimer takes off 7lbs (so just 9.11 to carry)
- from the family of the late and much-lamented stayer, Synchronised
- yard (Iain Jardine) 100% RTF in last fortnight
Jersey Bean, now 25/1- very genuine 9 yo who stayed on strongly under 11.12 to win over 28f on GS at Haydock last time out (furthest trip attempted). Up 5lbs for that but pedigree screams out for 4 miles - again Wild Risk in the right place and related to stayer Cogry (runner up in this by a neck in 2017) and tough mare Marello
Innisfree Lad, now 33/1- placed in the Eider (mark set to go a lot closer to Win My Wings this time) and made for 4 miles (staying on close 3rd in December's Borders National over extended 4m) - Wild Risk and Bold Ruler combo on the damside floats my boat. Brian Hughes on board.
One More Fleurie, was 33/1 now into 18/1- this one is highly speculative as he's been in poor form this season (season's bow on unsuitable ground and finding the Hennessy and Ultima tests too hot to handle) but won over the course this time last year on ground to suit. Unbeaten in 3 chases at 3m on Good.
- Yard (Ian Williams) in great form - 4 winners in last 14 days.
- good staying notes in his pedigree - Wild Risk on the damside and related to 1974 big-weight Irish GN winner Colebridge
If it has to be a Win bet and you prefer to pick between the market favs, I'd plump for either Win My Wings (8/1) or Ashtown Lad (10/), plenty of stamina in his family.First to do the Eider & Scot Nat double since 199.
I fear for Jersey Bean who came down at the 2nd. Fingers crossed.
Another mare to win next Saturday's big one???
EDIT - very sadly, Jersey Bean fatally injured