For me only one of the elliot entries is on the decline and has very little chance. There are other horses in the top 40 where I would have more questions for the trainers/owners on why they are running in this race. For me the issue is simple don't set the weights so early in the process.
Are Bob’s lot doing their offer? Bit late flagging up if so?
dont think it shows until the Thursday every year (but could be wrong). It should be there in the morning
If you haven't got an account with bet365 then today is the time to open one if you want to avail yourself of the offer (if the offer happens of course!).
Paddy Power only paying on 5 places. Any idea which firm offers most places??
Most of the others are paying 6 places although Betway are offering 7. Bet365 are 6 places so if they do offer their concession and you can get on with them then theirs is the best deal.
Paddy Power only paying on 5 places. Any idea which firm offers most places??
which is odd, cos for the Scots G N they were paying 6 places .. so on the busiest betting day of the year, Piss Poor Paddy is renamed Paddy Greedy Scrooge
Are Bob’s lot doing their offer? Bit late flagging up if so?
dont think it shows until the Thursday every year (but could be wrong). It should be there in the morning
If you haven't got an account with bet365 then today is the time to open one if you want to avail yourself of the offer (if the offer happens of course!).
aye, I remember the terms being that you had an account opened the day before to participate. Unfortunately none of it applies to me either way
Hi @PeanutsMolloy, I was wondering where the Irish trio of Farclas, Discorama and Run Wild Fred feature in your model?
I appreciate the place margins were pretty wide last year but I think there is some juice in the first two as last year's 5th and 7th with lighter seasons and still very fair handicap marks at 28/1 and 40/1 each 6 places. Could make a case for Farclas being an improver too at only 8 (albeit I appreciate the stats will say returners do not tend to win).
RWF has a few more pounds and a NHC run at Cheltenham a few weeks ago but equally is 28/1 for a second season chaser who has won a big handicap, 2 2nds in big handicaps and 3 2nds in G1 novice chases seems very fair.
Hopefully this answers those questions - happy to expand on any runner's specific rating by my model.
As you'll see, RWF is there or thereabouts (just not quite strong enough for my team - a tad too much weight for him in a GN IMO). Farclas has had quite a break which doesn't help his stats, even if the trainer's deliberately rested him (like all the returnees, he too has a tad too much weight). Discorama would certainly be of interest if the ground were softer than last year - it wasn't quick but he did run out of petrol at the business end, not helped by an interrupted season (better prep this time for sure) but also by the pace being a tad quick for him IMO. Nothing saps an out-and-out stayer's stamina like a pace they find too quick.
Nonetheless, I wouldn't discourage a bet on any of them - they're worthy each way candidates.
Some rain likely (modest amount) on Merseyside for next 3 days but due to dry up and be somewhat sunny for Saturday - looking like Good to Soft but will it ride on the quick side like 2015,17 and 19 or on the slower side like last year?
First clue will be Thursday's Foxhunters but, with the final 40 decided (barring late niggles or going objections) it's time to talk turkey.
By way of background, a quick recap of how my current model works (after its post-2019 revamp to try to identify selections prior to The Festival). It has 2-stages:
1. The “Slide Rule”
a) eliminate any with 2+ prior runs in GN and/or Becher or >28f+ without placing or excuse (out this year go Lord Du Mesnil and Coko Beach)
b) measure each runner against 13 statistically-meaningful tests (covering age, weight, hurdles (yes hurdles) RPR, chase success in big fields, time since last Chase win, Grade 1/2 form, form at 26f+, form at 28f+, form on the specific ground (decent or soft) [eliminator], damside pedigree, season’s runs and form, dates of first and last run in campaign).
They're statistically-meaningful because, with reference to all 316 runners in the 8 “modern” GNs 2013-21, those that either passed or failed each one represent a reasonable-size sample and those that passed each one appreciably outperformed in terms of producing winners and/or 1st~5th, relative to representation.
Back-testing all 316 runners in those 8 GNs against each of these tests, and on the specific going, 78% of runners were eliminated or failed 3+ tests.
The 22% that failed 0~2 tests accounted for 100% of GN winners and 2nd~3rds and 81% (13 of 16) that finished 4th~5th (2 of the 3 exceptions failed 3 tests).
All 8 winners and all 6 that near-missed (<5L) failed 0 or 1 test.
So, as a first screen, we're looking for runners that fail a maximum of 2 tests, qualified by ground preference. Of those down to 1st Reserve Eclair Surf, there are 13 (5 of whom are ground dependent):
2 - Longhouse Poet, Good Boy Bobby, Enjoy D’Allen, Freewheelin Dylan (if Gd/GS), Mighty Thunder, Cloth Cap (if Gd/GS), Blaklion (only if Soft), Death Duty, Eclair Surf (only if Soft)
FYI, those with 3 fails: Run Wild Fred, Caribean Boy, Discorama, Phoenix Way, Agusta Gold
2. “X-Factor”
To whittle these down to "the team to back", stage 2 looks for something sexy. That is, 1 or more traits in common with (a) winners and near-missers since 2013 or (b) GN placers up to 6th
For the winners/near-missers category, the 2 main attributes sought are:
- Pedigree (specific rare attributes on the damside - Damsire's quality 10f+ flat progeny or combo of Wild Risk & Bold Ruler or Wild Risk x-chromosome link or GN winner/near-misser in family) and/or
- 2nd season chaser with form at 26f+ or with high strike rate in 24f+ chases
All 14 winners and near-missers (and 8 of the 9 beaten 5~10L) since 2013 ticked at least 1 of these two boxes. 5 of the last 6 GN winners ticked both.
In search of strong place candidates, the principal ancillary tests are:
- statistically-meaningful outperformance in spring (mid-March to mid-May) - true of Aurora's Encore and Tiger Roll and GN placers Alvarado (x2), Anibale Fly (x2), Goonyella, Chance Du Roy, Road To Riches, Burrows Saint
- high strike rate in 3m+ chases - Cause Of Causes, The Last Samuri, Rathvinden and placers Rocky Creek and Shutthefrontdoor
- form over GN fences by GN debutant or in only prior GN run as 7yo - Cause Of Causes, Saint Are and placers Vics Canvas, Walk In The Mill and Chance Du Roy
- "well-in", measured by prior GN or recent chase RPR at 26f+ being 9lbs+ more than GN OR - Aurora's Encore, Tiger Roll, The Last Samuri, Blaklion (x2) and placers Oscar Time, Anibale Fly, Bless The Wings and Vieux Lion Rouge
Back-testing, 33% of all GN runners since 2013 had 1+ of any of these positive traits.
But putting both Stages together, only 52 (16% of fields) scored 0~2 fails on the Slide Rule and had at least (any) 1 positive trait.
45 of these had a winning-calibre X-Factor and these supplied all 8 winners, all 8 2nds, 7 3rds and10 finishing 4~6th.
Of the 12 with winning-calibre X-Factor that failed to make the frame, 5 F/UR and 1 ran creditably as a 7yo (= only 6 unexplained failures).
Only 1 horse made the first 6 home without any identified X-Factor; Gilgamboa 16L 4th in 2016 (he was also the biggest outlier for the Slide Rule with 4 fails).
All looks straightforward enough doesn't it?
Well maybe, but I can confidently predict one thing. That, as a crystal ball, the model will fail.
After all, it's created by "optimising" each of the tests to just 8 race results, particularly the characteristics of just 14 winners and near-missers, though with the sample enlarged by referencing all 48 horses finishing 1st~6th to try to capture developing trends.
As a tool for improving % returns, in its annual variations, its served me well and it's to be hoped that it may improve with each new iteration as the sample grows. But it's always going to be work-in-progress, since there will always be boundary-breakers for each test and the potential for a total outlier to smash all the assumed rules.
Whether you're following my suggestions or not, please don't bet more than you can afford to lose.
So, to my Anorak's Guide to the likely 40 runners this year. How does the Model rate them? I'm looking for 0~2 test fails and at least one + or *.
For these purposes an X-Factor denoted as + = winning-calibre and as * = place calibre
Minella Times 6++*
Delta Work 1+* [spring outperformer] (must have Gd/GS)
Any Second Now 4+
Easysland 6+
Run Wild Fred 3+
Brahma Bull 6
Lostintranslation 4+
Burrows Saint 5+
Mount Ida 4+
Fiddlerontheroof 1+++ (must have GS or better)
Longhouse Poet 2++
Two For Gold 5
Santini 4
Escaria Ten 4+
Farclas 4+
Samcro 4
Coko Beach - eliminated - no place in x3 attempts at 28f+
Good Boy Bobby 2
Lord Du Mesnil - eliminated - x2 poor runs GN and Becher (despite preferred going)
Caribean Boy 3++
De Rasher Counter 5
Anibale Fly 4*
Dingo Dollar 0+* [spring outperformer] (must have Gd/GS)
Discorama 3*
Enjoy D'Allen 2+
Kildisart 4+
Top Ville Ben 5
Class Conti 5+
Cloth Cap 2+ (big concern over breathing issue last time)
Freewheelin Dylan 2+* [spring outperformer] (must have Gd/GS)
Mighty Thunder 2++ (big concern that this is first run since wind op)
Noble Yeats 4
Agusta Gold 3+
Phoenix Way 3+
Snow Leopardess 1++
Blaklion 2* (providing Soft side of GS)
Deise Alba 4
Poker Party 4+
Death Duty 2+
Domaine De L'Isle 4
Reserve: Eclair Surf 2+* (Soft preferred for jumping)
So, 4 have stat-ratings consistent winners or near-missers over the past 8 years and another 8 have ratings consistent with placing, though potentially as close as 5 lengths of the winner. That's nothing given the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune typical of a GN.
But 2 of the 12 have had breathing problems (Mighty Thunder and Cloth Cap) and, while they have the profile and form at 4 miles to run huge races, a GN will likely find out any weakness in their wind, as it did for Cloth Cap last time.
And the chances of 5 others are ground-dependent, 1 of them currently uncertain of a run.
If you've followed this thread you'll probably have a good idea which ones I aim to have on my slip depending on how the ground's likely to ride (some of them were backed 3 weeks+ ago, hence some of the long prices). That gives me the luxury of a sizeable team - my 8-strong Gd/GS team generates a small profit if 1 of them makes the first 5 (or Death Duty 6th) and a c.500% profit if one of them wins (with a nice extra if either Delta Work or Dylan do the biz).
We'll know a lot more over the next 48 hours but if it looks like riding as decent ground (a la 2015, 2017 and 2019), my top picks (ranked according to "best-fit" with winners/near-missers and my subjective views of relative weight advantage on the specified ground) will be:
Fiddlerontheroof 1+++ tipped at 25~33/1 now 14/1 (Bet365 6 places) - IMHO best profile fit with Good/GS ground winners
Call me an eternal optimist, glass half full kind of guy, but based on Peanuts last post I’m coming to the conclusion that he knows a thing or two about The National.
Peanuts, actually makes it look far more complicated than it is. His charts and algorithms, and input of many variables, including pending weather and potential going is all well an good.
@PeanutsMolloy the undisputed king of Aintree analysis. Fantastic read.
Of your mob I've got Fiddlerontheroof and Longhouse Poet on my slip. Had a little mad poke at Santini at 50s, another little bit on Kildisart at 50s who has the back-class but a big ask on his recuperation and I'll add my 3 Irish above for the final 7. Good luck one and all.
Call me an eternal optimist, glass half full kind of guy, but based on Peanuts last post I’m coming to the conclusion that he knows a thing or two about The National.
Comments
Most are paying 6 places currently.
Next in would be Domaine De L'Isle if so, making Eclair Surf likely 1st Reserve.
I appreciate the place margins were pretty wide last year but I think there is some juice in the first two as last year's 5th and 7th with lighter seasons and still very fair handicap marks at 28/1 and 40/1 each 6 places. Could make a case for Farclas being an improver too at only 8 (albeit I appreciate the stats will say returners do not tend to win).
RWF has a few more pounds and a NHC run at Cheltenham a few weeks ago but equally is 28/1 for a second season chaser who has won a big handicap, 2 2nds in big handicaps and 3 2nds in G1 novice chases seems very fair.
Hopefully this answers those questions - happy to expand on any runner's specific rating by my model.
As you'll see, RWF is there or thereabouts (just not quite strong enough for my team - a tad too much weight for him in a GN IMO).
Farclas has had quite a break which doesn't help his stats, even if the trainer's deliberately rested him (like all the returnees, he too has a tad too much weight).
Discorama would certainly be of interest if the ground were softer than last year - it wasn't quick but he did run out of petrol at the business end, not helped by an interrupted season (better prep this time for sure) but also by the pace being a tad quick for him IMO. Nothing saps an out-and-out stayer's stamina like a pace they find too quick.
Nonetheless, I wouldn't discourage a bet on any of them - they're worthy each way candidates.
Some rain likely (modest amount) on Merseyside for next 3 days but due to dry up and be somewhat sunny for Saturday - looking like Good to Soft but will it ride on the quick side like 2015,17 and 19 or on the slower side like last year?
First clue will be Thursday's Foxhunters but, with the final 40 decided (barring late niggles or going objections) it's time to talk turkey.
By way of background, a quick recap of how my current model works (after its post-2019 revamp to try to identify selections prior to The Festival). It has 2-stages:
1. The “Slide Rule”
a) eliminate any with 2+ prior runs in GN and/or Becher or >28f+ without placing or excuse (out this year go Lord Du Mesnil and Coko Beach)
b) measure each runner against 13 statistically-meaningful tests (covering age, weight, hurdles (yes hurdles) RPR, chase success in big fields, time since last Chase win, Grade 1/2 form, form at 26f+, form at 28f+, form on the specific ground (decent or soft) [eliminator], damside pedigree, season’s runs and form, dates of first and last run in campaign).
They're statistically-meaningful because, with reference to all 316 runners in the 8 “modern” GNs 2013-21, those that either passed or failed each one represent a reasonable-size sample and those that passed each one appreciably outperformed in terms of producing winners and/or 1st~5th, relative to representation.
Back-testing all 316 runners in those 8 GNs against each of these tests, and on the specific going, 78% of runners were eliminated or failed 3+ tests.
The 22% that failed 0~2 tests accounted for 100% of GN winners and 2nd~3rds and 81% (13 of 16) that finished 4th~5th (2 of the 3 exceptions failed 3 tests).
All 8 winners and all 6 that near-missed (<5L) failed 0 or 1 test.
So, as a first screen, we're looking for runners that fail a maximum of 2 tests, qualified by ground preference. Of those down to 1st Reserve Eclair Surf, there are 13 (5 of whom are ground dependent):
0 - Dingo Dollar (if Gd/GS)
1 - Delta Work, Fiddlerontheroof (if Gd/GS), Snow Leopardess
2 - Longhouse Poet, Good Boy Bobby, Enjoy D’Allen, Freewheelin Dylan (if Gd/GS), Mighty Thunder, Cloth Cap (if Gd/GS), Blaklion (only if Soft), Death Duty, Eclair Surf (only if Soft)
FYI, those with 3 fails: Run Wild Fred, Caribean Boy, Discorama, Phoenix Way, Agusta Gold
2. “X-Factor”
To whittle these down to "the team to back", stage 2 looks for something sexy. That is, 1 or more traits in common with (a) winners and near-missers since 2013 or (b) GN placers up to 6th
For the winners/near-missers category, the 2 main attributes sought are:
- Pedigree (specific rare attributes on the damside - Damsire's quality 10f+ flat progeny or combo of Wild Risk & Bold Ruler or Wild Risk x-chromosome link or GN winner/near-misser in family) and/or
- 2nd season chaser with form at 26f+ or with high strike rate in 24f+ chases
All 14 winners and near-missers (and 8 of the 9 beaten 5~10L) since 2013 ticked at least 1 of these two boxes. 5 of the last 6 GN winners ticked both.
In search of strong place candidates, the principal ancillary tests are:
- statistically-meaningful outperformance in spring (mid-March to mid-May) - true of Aurora's Encore and Tiger Roll and GN placers Alvarado (x2), Anibale Fly (x2), Goonyella, Chance Du Roy, Road To Riches, Burrows Saint
- high strike rate in 3m+ chases - Cause Of Causes, The Last Samuri, Rathvinden and placers Rocky Creek and Shutthefrontdoor
- form over GN fences by GN debutant or in only prior GN run as 7yo - Cause Of Causes, Saint Are and placers Vics Canvas, Walk In The Mill and Chance Du Roy
- "well-in", measured by prior GN or recent chase RPR at 26f+ being 9lbs+ more than GN OR - Aurora's Encore, Tiger Roll, The Last Samuri, Blaklion (x2) and placers Oscar Time, Anibale Fly, Bless The Wings and Vieux Lion Rouge
Back-testing, 33% of all GN runners since 2013 had 1+ of any of these positive traits.
But putting both Stages together, only 52 (16% of fields) scored 0~2 fails on the Slide Rule and had at least (any) 1 positive trait.
45 of these had a winning-calibre X-Factor and these supplied all 8 winners, all 8 2nds, 7 3rds and10 finishing 4~6th.
Of the 12 with winning-calibre X-Factor that failed to make the frame, 5 F/UR and 1 ran creditably as a 7yo (= only 6 unexplained failures).
Only 1 horse made the first 6 home without any identified X-Factor; Gilgamboa 16L 4th in 2016 (he was also the biggest outlier for the Slide Rule with 4 fails).
All looks straightforward enough doesn't it?
Well maybe, but I can confidently predict one thing. That, as a crystal ball, the model will fail.
After all, it's created by "optimising" each of the tests to just 8 race results, particularly the characteristics of just 14 winners and near-missers, though with the sample enlarged by referencing all 48 horses finishing 1st~6th to try to capture developing trends.
As a tool for improving % returns, in its annual variations, its served me well and it's to be hoped that it may improve with each new iteration as the sample grows. But it's always going to be work-in-progress, since there will always be boundary-breakers for each test and the potential for a total outlier to smash all the assumed rules.
Whether you're following my suggestions or not, please don't bet more than you can afford to lose.
So, to my Anorak's Guide to the likely 40 runners this year. How does the Model rate them? I'm looking for 0~2 test fails and at least one + or *.
For these purposes an X-Factor denoted as + = winning-calibre and as * = place calibre
So, 4 have stat-ratings consistent winners or near-missers over the past 8 years and another 8 have ratings consistent with placing, though potentially as close as 5 lengths of the winner. That's nothing given the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune typical of a GN.
But 2 of the 12 have had breathing problems (Mighty Thunder and Cloth Cap) and, while they have the profile and form at 4 miles to run huge races, a GN will likely find out any weakness in their wind, as it did for Cloth Cap last time.
And the chances of 5 others are ground-dependent, 1 of them currently uncertain of a run.
If you've followed this thread you'll probably have a good idea which ones I aim to have on my slip depending on how the ground's likely to ride (some of them were backed 3 weeks+ ago, hence some of the long prices). That gives me the luxury of a sizeable team - my 8-strong Gd/GS team generates a small profit if 1 of them makes the first 5 (or Death Duty 6th) and a c.500% profit if one of them wins (with a nice extra if either Delta Work or Dylan do the biz).
We'll know a lot more over the next 48 hours but if it looks like riding as decent ground (a la 2015, 2017 and 2019), my top picks (ranked according to "best-fit" with winners/near-missers and my subjective views of relative weight advantage on the specified ground) will be:
- Fiddlerontheroof 1+++ tipped at 25~33/1 now 14/1 (Bet365 6 places) - IMHO best profile fit with Good/GS ground winners
- Dingo Dollar 0+* 50/1 Bet365 6 places 1/5 (NRNB & BOG)
- Delta Work 1+* 66/1 now 7/1
- Freewheelin Dylan 2+* 100/1 now 50/1
- Enjoy D'Allen 2+ 50/1 now 10/1
- Snow Leopardess 1++ 20/1 now 7/1
- Longhouse Poet 2++ 20~33/1 now 16/1
- Death Duty 2+ 40/1 now 28/1
And if the going turns Soft side of GS or worse:- Snow Leopardess 1++ 20/1 now 7/1 - IMHO best profile fit with Soft ground winners
- Delta Work 1+* 66/1 now 7/1
- Enjoy D'Allen 2+ 50/1 now 10/1
- Longhouse Poet 2++ 20~33/1 now 16/1
- Death Duty 2+ 40/1 now 28/1
- Blaklion2* now 50/1
- if he makes it in: Eclair Surf 2+* now 14/1
Got my stopwatch ready for those Foxhunters and finger poised on the Bet365 Log In for the annual offer from the munificent @bobmunroBut, I’m only just behind him with my method.
Of your mob I've got Fiddlerontheroof and Longhouse Poet on my slip. Had a little mad poke at Santini at 50s, another little bit on Kildisart at 50s who has the back-class but a big ask on his recuperation and I'll add my 3 Irish above for the final 7. Good luck one and all.
My pleasure