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Grand National 2022

Apologies for an unusually early start for the GN thread this season, but there's an interesting and potentially significant renewal of the Grand Sefton this afternoon (2.15).
TIME TO GET UP, the JP-owned & Jonjo-trained winner of a decent quality Midlands National over 34f last March. Got up that day to pip Mighty Thunder (who went on to take the Scottish GN a month later and is himself an interesting candidate for the biggie, despite being outclassed in the Charlie Hall) will take his first look at the GN fences.
Probably too short a trip at 21f today but a useful sighter for a very serious contender on form and stats. 20/1 ante-post for the real thing.
Enjoy. 


Comments

  • And we are off ….
  • Interesting that Tom Scudamore is now JJO's go to man in the big races .. 
  • edited November 2021
    Handled the fences nicely enough but never in contention and it does beg the question whether he has the gears to win a modern GN. Now winless in 6 runs 20~24f and pushed out to 25s for April.
    That said, it's difficult to see from the tele how fit he stripped for what was his seasonal debut and it will be interesting to see if Jonjo brings him back for the Becher in 3 weeks.
    Even off his mark today, he'd probably want him up a lb or two in the handicap to ensure a run in the big one.
    Jury out. 

  • It’s the most wonderful time of the year.
  • edited December 2021
    Becher Chase at 2.40 today with a mix of proven performers over the fences and a very interesting Fence-debutant with April in mind.
    The latter is Scot Nat winner and Mid Nat runner up, 8 yo Mighty Thunder, who ticks quite a few boxes for a GN. He's on the drift today (out to 14s) and best result would be a nice sighter but nothing to incur the wrath of the handicapper to spoil a handy OR150.
    Kimberlite Candy (11/1) could run well again (fresh) today - loves the fences and should love the ground. He was a disappointment in April and no doubt the pace was too quick for him but he also got very unlucky in running and was never in the race. Not to be written off if underhoof conditions are more to his liking in 4 months time.
    Big chance for the topweight today, Chris's Dream (8/1) who was going very nicely with the leaders last April before departing 4 out. Interesting to see whether Mac Tottie (8/1) can repeat his fantastic run when taking the Grand Sefton over the extra 5f today. Achille (nice pull at the weights with Mighty Thunder) would have been my e/w pick at 14/1 on Thursday but the market got behind him before I could get my shilling down and 8/1 looks a bit meagre for a fence-debutant who can get a little behind in his races.
    If Connor O'Farrell were in the plate, I'd have a nibble on Vieux Lion Rouge to win back to back Becher (the pair brought home the bacon for me last year), but I'm just not a fan nowadays (as he's got a bit moodier) of him paired with Tom Scu and 10/1 doesn't tempt me particularly.
    Bound to be something from the longer prices that goes well but I'm not had the time to sift through them closely enough so will be a spectator only this afternoon, but a very interested one. 
    May yet be tempted to pair CHRIS'S DREAM and KIMBERLITE CANDY in a forecast.
    Should be a cracker.

    Prior to that, at 2.05, Tiger Roll makes his season's debut in the Many Clouds Chase. 
  • edited December 2021
    Fantastic win for the fav, the gallant mare Snow Leopardess, just holding off out-of-the-handicap Hill Sixteen in an attritional renewal; so much so that Mighty Thunder was a NR.
    Lightweights fared best on the ground, though Chris's Dream was going nicely enough and in touch when softly unseating after Foinavon. Kimberlite strangely jumped poorly.
    Snow Leopardess cut to 20s for April and will surely get the required nudge up in the handicap to have the chance to run. 
  • Stuck a fiver on the king George for everyone in our house.
    My eldest picked out Tornado Flyer !

    Yay
  • edited December 2021
    One eye on the Chepstow marathon this pm but another on the Paddy Power Handicap at Leopardstown, annoyingly scheduled for 5 mins after The Off at Chepstow.

    Being the scrimmage it is with 27 runners, the PP Hdcp has become an interesting pointer to the some of the better Irish hopes for Aintree in April; especially JPs young, potential contenders.

    • Anibale Fly won it in 2017 as a 7yo before his first run into 4th in the big one
    • Any Second Now 10L 5th in 2018 as a 6yo
    • Minella Times 5L 2nd in 2020 as a 7yo, following up with April glory, with Gigginstown's GN 5th Farclas in 3rd

    For the most part this year, JP's squad that's within range Ratings-wise is on the young side to run at Aintree 2022. But down the weights Birchdale (though still a maiden over fences, now in the hands of Enda Bolger) is of interest (today at least) at a suitable trip for the first time in a chase and will carry an e/w shilling of mine at 33/1 (6 places). Related to Carlingford Lough and other top 3 milers (and incidentally a nice one of mine that sadly had a foreshortened career, so possibly heart ruling here!).

    With next April in mind, the runner of most obvious interest today isn't JP's but is 2nd season chaser 7yo Enjoy D'allen, a close and not-stopping 3rd in the Irish GN. He'd certainly be on the "long list" if going close today and taking his chance at Aintree and, notwithstanding 3lbs higher mark than at Fairyhouse and his jockey losing his claim, 25/1 is IMHO appealing each way value for a very genuine fellow, who's yet to finish out of the frame in 9 chases.

    Nollaig Shona Daoibh.
  • I fancy Captain Drake each way in the Welsh GN at 33s.
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  • edited December 2021
    I fancy Captain Drake each way in the Welsh GN at 33s.
    Good luck @alan dugdale
    Fry's in good form and great value at 33s.
    Achille backed into 14s. @bobmunro was offering 50s for 5 places yesterday.

  • edited December 2021
    Can’t help feeling Native River’s a tad overlooked at 20/1.
    Arguably still the classiest true stayer in the country, even at the age of 11, and hasn’t run further than the GC trip or in handicap company since winning this 5 years ago.
    Tidal Bay carried topweight to go very close when a 12 yo and Raz De Maree (2nd to him that day) won it 12 months on when effectively 12. 
    He puts 7 of the oppo out of the handicap and though that's not stopped such winners in this previously, there are plenty worse each way candidates IMHO.
    I've deployed my free bet, courtesy of the munificent @bobmunro, to add him to my team.
  • I'm on Eva's Oscar. 
  • I’ve done Ramses De Teillee 

    At Kempton today. Shishkin was incredible.
  • Cheers @PeanutsMolloy, had a small ew dabble on birchdale and it just managed to hang on to 6th place.
  • edited December 2021
    Cheers @PeanutsMolloy, had a small ew dabble on birchdale and it just managed to hang on to 6th place.

    Cheers @paulbaconsarnie
    Glad he hung on to make a return for us. Looked like he might score coming off the final bend but, thankfully, put me in profit this afternoon despite not hitting a bullseye. 
    Winner (School Boy Hours) might make up into a GN candidate if progressing on this first win over fences; related to Bonanza Boy and a pedigree typical of pre-2013 GN success but would need to go up 12lbs+ to get a chance this time round. 
    Enjoy D'Allen with another admirable run in 3rd, likely already has a high enough rating and does merit serious consideration each-way if he gets an entry for Aintree.

    Attritional stuff at Chepstow with 14 PU.
    Credit to Iwilldoit - yet another home-town success and back-to-back winner of the Trial and the real thing.
    Related to Bless The Wings and plenty of Wild Risk in the pedigree to hint at GN potential. Will probably get a high enough mark to get in in April but still early doors in his fencing career and trainer considers him better in the mud.
  • A free bet365 fiver put on Achille each way at 50/1 returned £25 today. Many thanks, @PeanutsMolloy, I am further in your debt.
  • Picking out a 50/1 shot yesterday, to then be 16/1 SP is great work. Nice one Peanuts.
  • IdleHans said:
    A free bet365 fiver put on Achille each way at 50/1 returned £25 today. Many thanks, @PeanutsMolloy, I am further in your debt.
    Cheers @IdleHans Glad you took some folding off @bobmunro
    I pissed my freebie away but still managed to prize a little out of his clenched fist   :)
    Have a good one.
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  • edited December 2021
    Farewell to Native River to enjoy his retirement. Definitely my favourite staying chaser of the last 10 years or so. Just a shame he never had a go at the big one but he was probably too good at his peak and the year he probably would've Covid struck!
  • edited January 1

    Crazy early it may be but when there’s a whiff of a wonky price about a lively and likely GN contender, it’d be rude not to. And to my nose, @bobmunro’s 100/1 about FREEWHEELIN DYLAN seems like sizzling bacon.

    Why?

    1. The form of April’s Irish GN, of which he was the longest-ever priced winner at 150/1, is proving to be decent:
    • 2nd Run Wild Fred off 5lbs higher OR romped home 7.5L clear of Farclas in November’s Troytown and is now rated a full 19lbs (OR159) above his Fairyhouse mark. He’s 16/1 for Aintree but IMHO would carry too much weight for his current CV
    • 3rd Enjoy D’allen off 3lbs higher (OR145) was a close 3rd in Monday’s Paddy Power Handicap (a good GN pointer last year, when both Minella Times and Farclas went well). He’s 50/1 and could yet figure on my team if he gets an entry

         Both of these 7yo, 2nd season chasers are entitled to be progressive, but 9yo Dylan’s also shown since that he’s still competitive despite a higher mark:

    • Off +8lbs a month later, he carried topweight over 31f to be a not-stopping 3L 4th behind Scottish GN runner-up Mister Fogpatches (receiving 17lbs) and fellow topweight Anibale Fly.
    • Off +10lbs (OR147) in November, as an Aintree prep, he was going very nicely and in contention in a competitive XC at Cheltenham before a soft UR 5 from home
    • On paper, recent collateral form (including but also independent of the Troytown) imply ratings for both Dylan and Enjoy D'allen ahead of Farclas (GN 5th off OR146 and 25/1 for April) and, while OR151 may now flatter him, he's set a consistent and competitive benchmark over the last year at up to OR148, suggesting both may have a tad more up their sleeves at current marks
    2. Loves an extended trip on decent ground: In 11 chases & 1 hurdle over 25f+ on Gd or Y, he’s made the frame in 75%, with 8 wins or near-misses (67%)

    3. Pedigree consistent with making the frame in a GN:

    • Reminiscent of Vics Canvas (3rd in 2016 GN at 80/1), Dylan is by a son of Sadlers Wells, has Wild Risk present on both paternal and maternal dam-side and (via 2nd damsire Buckskin, a Group 1 winning stayer and sire of Amberleigh House) enjoys a relatively rare genetic X-Factor link to Wild Risk (Saint Are shared such a link)
    • From the family of Champion hurdler Gaye Brief and staying chaser Simon (was going well with the leaders in 2007 and 08 GNs when tipping up both times at the 25th)
    • His damsire Beat All doesn't measure up as that of a typical modern-GN winner (i.e. sired or dam-sired a Group 1 winner at 10f+); of the 7 GN winners from 2013, only Pineau De Re lacked the same. However, 22 of the 32 placed 2~5th in those GNs also lacked it.

    4. Age is fine, being 10yo come April. 5 of 14 winners/near-missers from 2013 and 40% of those finishing 1st~5th were 10+yo

    5. Likely to make the cut with a very workable weight. Was given OR147 by the British handicapper for his (respectable) run at Cheltenham and Irish mark is 146; the same as Minella Times' last April, when he carried 10.03 (the cut was at OR145). 

    As a general observation, perhaps unsurprisingly, the GN record of former Irish GN winners or near-missers continues to be decent post-2012; from 14 runs, 5 made the frame (1st~5th), including the 2016 winner (i.e. 4.4% of runners contributing 12.5% of winners and first 5 places).

    We’re a month away from entries but Dylan’s stated target is the Aintree GN, not least because of his love of decent ground (handily, Aintree is 9 days prior to the Irish GN this season so, unless it's looking wet, presumably he’ll head to Liverpool).

    He’s unlikely to be seen again on the track until better ground returns but all that’s needed to confirm a frame-making stat-profile is a safe prep 22~49 days prior to the big day.

    Even if he’s a tick short of winning-calibre stats, he's very much got the profile to make a bold show on decent ground and, with most other bookies making him 50~66/1 and most Betfair trades at 65~70, 100s for 5 places (1/4 odds) is too big an each-way price IMHO. Thus, my first shilling is invested.

    Happy New Year.

  • Early days but why is that Ryanair clown allowed to keep doing this. He must know there is no chance of Tiger Roll running. 
  • Early days but why is that Ryanair clown allowed to keep doing this. He must know there is no chance of Tiger Roll running. 

    Because he's a c*nt.
  • edited January 9
    Freewheelin Dylan keeping the wheels oiled today in a competitive 3m hdcp hurdle at Fairyhouse, for which (being a maiden over the floppies) his mark is 33lbs below his chase mark. A safe spin will be the order of the day, with eyes on the bigger prize.

    Edit - PU on unfavourable ground but mission accomplished and a final safe spin late Feb or early Mar would be ideal. 

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