So a (not so) quick word regarding 8 year-old Caribean Boy (40/1 for the GN).
There was a happy time when you could confidently put a line through any GN runner without form at 26f+, let alone one untried beyond 24 or 25f. But the post-2012 course and fence changes put paid to that and near-missing Magic Of Light in 2019 and Minella Times a year ago, showed that, for a young, unexposed chaser with the right 3m credentials and (crucially) the rare, spot-on pedigree, it's possible to excel in a GN.
The record of 8 year-olds particularly since 2015, when the GN saw speed from the Off return after the caution of 2013, has been markedly better than prior to the course changes. The last 8 yo winner pre-2015 had been Bindaree in 2002 but 8 yos have won 4 of the 6 GNs since 2015 (9 yos the other 2) and that's with 8yos representing 20% of the 236 runners.
It may require a leap of faith to back them but the returns can be rewarding of course (Magic Of Light's SP was 66/1 and Minella Times had run his final prep and was available at 40s prior to his jockey and trainer's stellar Cheltenham).
This year there is 1 unexposed youngster that ticks that pedigree box in full; Caribean Boy. But he has to defy not only the recent Irish domination of the race but Nicky Henderson's notoriously abysmal GN record. So, it might require a particularly large leap of faith to back him.
But there are reasons to consider doing so.
Saturday's test is crucial. Arriving from France in 2018 and after a promising start, he'd disappointed over fences (chiefly at c20f) until scoring nicely in a Class 2 over 3m in January, the furthest he's run to date. Saturday is his first tilt at 3m in Listed company in what will certainly be a true and stiff test. It's the same race in which Cappa Bleu near-missed twice as his final preps prior to placing in both 2012 and 2013 GNs, and Caribean Boy must win or near-miss to upgrade his stats to be a serious proposition on 9 April.
It would mark him thus because of his pedigree. As noted above, like Fiddler, he's one of only 4 likely runners in April with the perfect, complete array of damside attributes, consistent with a modern GN winner:
Like Fiddler, he has the combo of Wild Risk and Bold Ruler on his damside, shared by only 8% of GN runners since 2013 but including each of the last 5 winners.
His 1st, 2nd and 3rd damsires all produced G1 winners at 10f+, rated RPR120+ on the flat.
Of all 316 GN runners since 2013, only 3 shared these specific damside characteristics and all 3 won (Rule The World, One For Arthur and Tiger Roll)
It's a big stretch of the imagination to liken Caribean Boy with those 3, all with form at 29f+ prior to their GN debuts. But he hasn't been put to the test over an extended trip and, to state the obvious, the beauty (or flaw!) of a stats-model is that it can identify potentially key attributes in an unexposed runner that the market's not spotting or valuing - almost inevitably, it's a high risk/return selection.
Being an unexposed youngster in a GN can yield the benefit of an advantageous weight and Caribean is set to carry a very workable 10.06~10.11.
He also has prior experience of the GN fences, having travelled OK and jumped nicely (including The Chair and Bechers) in last year's Topham on decent ground, until making a hash of Foinavon (11th). He had Daryl Jacob on board that day but James Bowen pilots him on Saturday and he's 2 from 2 as his partner.
He's thought to prefer juice in the ground, at least at shorter trips, and he'll get that on Saturday but he won a Grade 2 at Newbury in faster than standard, albeit a small field (incl. Fiddlerontheroof).
4 runs in the season with Saturday's prep, 49 days prior is spot on.
To take the 40s now or not? With other GN candidates to consider and, as he's offered at 13/2, there's enough juice for me to prefer a hedging punt on Saturday's race.
Saturday also sees the GN Trial at Haydock with typically testing going forecast. The race is unlikely to tell us anything we don't know already about those running with GN marks that are likely to make the cut.
A safe spin is all that's needed to put Lord Du Mesnil on the shortlist if (and only if) it's wet in April on Merseyside.
Ditto Blaklion off his current GN mark
A win or near-miss for Sam Brown likewise
More versatile as to going, a win or near-miss for Kalooki (related to State Of Play) would give him the stat-profile to emulate his much-loved relative with a modest place (at best) in the Big One.
Let's just take a pause and consider what a model can do for us, if it's constructed and used (unlike some!) sensibly.
Apologies if it's a statement of the bleeding obvious.
They NEVER give us CERTAINTIES (obviously so in any event involving humans and horses, let alone one in which fortune plays a huge part) but they CAN IDENTIFY STRONG POSSIBILITIES and POTENTIAL.
I use a model in betting because I want to improve the % returns OVER TIME from my bets and I use it exclusively in the GN because, more than any other horse race IMHO:
there is a range of common and statistically significant factors observable (with some common but some differing permutations) in previously successful horses (horses only, not their yards or jockies), and
hype and a tendency for the market to over-rate the chances of horses from some "top yards" or ridden by "headline jockies" or of "quality" (established for the most part at up to 24f), tends to cause market distortions (sometimes incredibly large) in the odds offered for SOME of the runners with the best-fit with the truly significant factors.
That's true even now for FREEWHEELIN DYLAN (strongly so) at 66/1 and for FIDDLERONTHEROOF (somewhat) at 25/1.
But obviously the market is capable of spotting some key trends and sometimes does latch on to a runner with a great chance on their stats and, from the start or in the course of time, prices it accordingly. It's why I start looking at potential GN runners from November onwards and am prepared to take antepost punts which, despite some lost stakes, to date have comfortably been more than offset by the profits from my model, helped by early prices secured on successful bets.
To cope with the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune, I aim to back (odds-weighted and e/w) every runner identified by the model with a good "fit" statistically with former winners or near-missers and as that's typically 6~8 runners, making the exercise profitable means taking the risk on early prices when sensible but also being prepared to back runners whose stats make the grade late, even if the market has already latched on to them.
The model aims to be "scientific", the betting strategy has to remain more "art".
If you haven't been reading this thread and got on board when he was first identified at 50/1, then 40/1, unfortunatelyENJOY D'ALLEN now at 18/1 is probably fairly-priced. But obviously that has no bearing on his potential for doing the business and, if you're a later-stage punter aiming to back 3 or 4, you may still consider him eminently backable at that price.
Given my betting strategy, other than on occasion selecting a NAP for fun, I don't rank the chances of the runners identified by the model because each has a different permutation of "good fit".
However, if I had to rank them I might do so based upon my best-estimate of their relative weights based on head-to-head and collateral form. If I were to do so now, I would rank them thus (ignoring School Boy Hours and Braeside, who may not line up):
ASSUMING GOOD or GOOD-to-SOFT (crucial) and that Galvin and Conflated are scratched:
Fiddlerontheroof (currently 25/1)
Dingo Dollar (50/1)
Freewheelin Dylan (66/1)
Enjoy D'Allen (18/1)
Longhouse Poet (16/1)
Snow Leopardess (16/1)
But bear in mind. THESE RANKINGS ARE ME, NOT MY MODEL, which rates all 6 as potential winners - assuming the going is Good or GS.
If it's Soft, the chances of the top 3 would all be materially impaired.
The (hopefully) good news, as you'll have spotted, is that another runner with a "wild price" (poo-poohed by the market), has emerged as a serious contender on the stats, now that an entry's been made for him which, if fulfilled with a safe spin, will tick a key remaining box.
As noted above, Caribean Boy (40/1) will join the list (ranking yet to be determined) if he puts in a big run tomorrow.
I've already set out the CV for Dylan and Fiddler and I'll shortly provide the same for the other 4. Meanwhile I'm keeping everything crossed for a not-wet spring - more than any other year I can recall, the complexion of the best team is heavily going-dependent.
Fiddlerontheroof has a habit of finishing second so i don't see him as a potential winner. Although he must have an each way chance. He takes on Caribean Boy on Saturday in the 2.25 Ascot assuming the weather allows it. The one i like is Santini.
I mentioned prior to December’s Paddy Power Hdcp at
Leopardstown, which has been a good pointer in recent years for young Irish contenders
in the GN, that if EDA went close he’d be there or
thereabouts on his stats for Aintree. And so he did, finishing a keeping-on 3rd
(3L) under 11.06 (OR143).
It was quickish ground that day (the race time 21 secs faster
than the previous year, when Minella Times and Farclas came 2nd and
3rd), with the usual hurly-burly that makes this 0~150 and big field handicap (28
runners this year) a decent test for a GN and his near-miss confirmed EDA’s good
GN profile:
Specifically:
- An 8 yo in his 2nd season chasing.
Since 2015 8 yos, comprising 20% of the GN fields, have contributed 4 of the 6 winners
(the other 2 both 9 year-olds) and every first-time winner of the GN since 2014
has been a 2nd season chaser (24% of runners).
- Highly consistent, he’s made the frame (never
out of the first 3) in all 10 chases 20~29f (2 wins and 5 near-misses <5L)
- That includes his staying-on close 3rd
(4.5L) to Dylan in last April’s Irish GN. The GN record of former
Irish GN winners or near-missers continues to be decent post-2012; from 14
runs, 5 made the frame (1st~5th), including the 2016 winner Rule The World (i.e.
4.4% of runners contributing 12.5% of winners and first 5 places).
- He’ll be off a GN mark of 148, 6lbs higher than the
Irish GN and 3lbs higher than PP Hdcp, but the form of both races has been
nicely franked:
o
2nd in the Irish GN was Run Wild Fred
who subsequently, off a 5lb higher mark, gave weight and a 7L beating to
Farclas, earning a further hike to OR158 (a full 18lbs higher than his IGN
mark)
o
January’s strong renewal of the Thyestes on Soft
ground (won impressively by Longhouse Poet) initially cast doubt on the quality
of this year’s PP Hdcp but its form was subsequently franked by Birchdale (effectively
off 4lbs higher than when 6th in the PP) romping home in a competitive
Grade A in early Feb (closely followed by the PP 7th) and Death Duty
(5th in the PP) taking last Sunday’s Irish GN Trial.
- His pedigree doesn’t tick all the boxes
but has some notable characteristics consistent with GN success and, save for
the absence Wild Risk on his damside, is reminiscent of Saint Are’s:
o
Same sire (the highly regarded German stallion Network)
o
Saint Are’s damsire = EDA’s 2nd damsire,
Video Rock who notably brings Bold Ruler to the party in X-Factor form
o
Damsire is Dom Alco, who damsired Gold Cup winner
Al Boum Photo and sired GN winner Neptune Collonges and x2 Scot Nat winners
o From the family of Envoi Allen and more
pertinently Auvergnat, winner of the 33.5f La Touche XC.
- He’ll head straight to Aintree now, with 3 runs
in the season, the last 63 days prior – including the PP near-miss, that’s
identical to Minella Times last year.
- Effectively assured to make the cut, he’ll carry
10.05 or more likely 10.10, depending on topweight – workable in either case.
- Acts on any ground but probably best-suited by genuine
Good-to-Soft
In summary, he’s got a very strong GN profile for a huge run,
to be well in the mix at the business end. He’s thoroughly genuine and, barring mishap, sure to give a good run for our money, but the absence of Wild Risk on his
damside perhaps suggests no cigar. But there's always those slings and arrows.
Just outside the winners' (but not near-missers') sweet spot age-wise but a rejuvenation from
a change of yard is what’s propelled the stats-profile of 10yo DINGO DOLLAR (50/1)
to strong GN potential, providing the ground is decent.
- Back-to-back placings in the Hennessy (aka
Ladbrokes Trophy), the first in 2018 notably off his GN mark OR148 and with
11.03 on less than ideal Soft ground, seemed a distant memory in 2020 when, a
month after wind surgery, Dingo had his final outing for Alan King – on the
face of it, an off-putting PU over the GN fences in the Grand Sefton over 21f
and on Soft.
- That flop no doubt contributes to market scepticism about Dingo (maybe the cheekpieces add to it) but, with circumstances very much against him that day, his
career-best form since the same owners then moved him to the canny Scot, Sandy Thomson,
IMHO gives good reason to look past it.
- Notably, he achieved a career-high RPR155 at the
furthest trip attempted when a keeping-on close 2nd (0.75L) under 11.02 in last
April’s 4m Scottish GN (OR145). While young winners/near-missers of the Ayr
marathon have disappointed in year-later GNs, he’s more like the seasoned
chasers Hello Bud and Aurora’s Encore, who went on a year later from winning
and near-missing at Ayr, respectively, to place 5th in and win the GN
in 2010 and 2013.
- Indeed, since joining Thomson, Dingo’s been ridden by
Aurora’s GN-winning pilot Ryan Mania
- There’s an interesting form line from that Scot
Nat because 3rd (4L) that day, Mister Fogpatches (receiving 16lbs
from Dingo), has become a solid, contemporary benchmark for both British and
Irish stayers:
o
Foggy’s 3rd in November’s Troytown
behind Run Wild Fred and Farclas, on paper off their GN marks, puts Dingo 10lbs
well-in with last year’s GN 5th (25/1 for this GN)
o
His 3rd in January’s Thyestes (a
particularly strong renewal) puts Dingo 9lbs well-in with the impressive winner
Longhouse Poet (20/1)
- Clearly a campaign with Aintree in mind, form in
2 runs this season has been creditable, achieving his 2nd-highest
career RPR153 when placing 3rd in November’s Rehearsal Chase, the
form of that franked by 2nd Good Boy Bobby’s win off 5lbs higher in
the Rowland Meyrick a month later.
- Not seen since, presumably waiting for GN
weights and better ground, and has a chance of getting that at Doncaster for Wednesday’s
veterans’ chase (the race used by Saint Are for his latter Aintree preps, including
when 3rd in the 2017 GN).
- Indeed, ground is key to Dingo's best form; his strike rate being materially better on spring ground (75% win/near-miss rate over fences from mid-Mar to end-April, compared to 17% at other times)
- Pedigree-wise ticks a key box, if not hitting
the bullseye as regards quality flat progeny of damsires:
o
Damsire Moscow Society was damsire of 2012 GN 3rd
Seabass
o
He has the electric combo of Wild Risk and Bold
Ruler on his damside, shared by only 8% of GN runners since 2013 but every winner of the last
5 GNs and near-missers Saint Are, Magic Of Light and Rathvinden
- If he runs on Wednesday, a safe spin will suffice and he'll head to Aintree with 3 runs in the season,
the last 45 days’ prior – in the sweet spot.
- Typically races handy, always a positive in a GN, and effectively assured a run, he’ll carry 10.05 or, more likely, 10.10 – very winnable-with,
providing the ground is decent.
Hi @PeanutsMolloy - amazingly detailed analysis as ever!
I was wondering, does your model factor in a perception of positive or negative performance by a horse in big fields?
If I take Caribean Boy for example: 3-1-1-3-4-1 in small field chases; compared to 7-PU-10-F in chases with 10 or more runners.
This can be over-simplistic because it might not be straightforward to associate a DNF with running in a big field, and a big defeat on paper might not be as much in distance with more runners (Caribean Boy's 10th was <9L when he's had a 3rd losing by a greater distance), but do you factor in field size of form as a variable?
Hi @PeanutsMolloy - amazingly detailed analysis as ever!
I was wondering, does your model factor in a perception of positive or negative performance by a horse in big fields?
If I take Caribean Boy for example: 3-1-1-3-4-1 in small field chases; compared to 7-PU-10-F in chases with 10 or more runners.
This can be over-simplistic because it might not be straightforward to associate a DNF with running in a big field, and a big defeat on paper might not be as much in distance with more runners (Caribean Boy's 10th was <9L when he's had a 3rd losing by a greater distance), but do you factor in field size of form as a variable?
Thanks!
Cheers @ISawLeaburnScore Answer is yes and you're absolutely right to point that out about Caribean Boy. One of the 13 tests in the first half of my model's screen is to have placed or finished <10L in a chase with 15+ runners (I cut some slack if a runner did so with 14 and it was the largest field they'd experienced). In his case the jury is perhaps out, as he's mainly run in smaller fields (and against only 9 today) but he did tick the box with his 8L (albeit 10th of 19) defeat in November in always-competitive PP Gold Cup at Cheltenham, though he did race on the outside. He also ran well (13L 7th) and wasn't seemingly disconcerted (in the middle of the pack) by 20 rivals in the PP Plate at last year's Festival. He faced 25 rivals in the Topham and, to get a view of the fences, raced wide but went well enough (IMO) until thumping Foinavon. It's always difficult with a youngster but, aside from technically ticking the box, I don't see anything in the big field chases he's experienced to suggest he won't be OK, though of course the occasion can always get to any horse.
Tomorrow sees LONGHOUSE POET(20/1 for the GN) take a spin in Navan's 21f Grade 2 Boyne Hurdle, used by Tiger Roll as his pre-Festival cobweb-blaster in his 2019 GN winning season.
And while there's a slight reservation about the absolute GN weight he'll likely and the possibility that he may wait for Fairyhouse if the ground is too quick at Aintree, the Poet is one of the few with a stat-profile rated as strong potential to go very well on 9 April on GS or softer (the more juice the better his chance).
- 8 year old in his 2nd season season chasing - a "stat-bullseye", as noted for Enjoy D'Allen above, because since 2015 8 yos (20% of GN runners) contributed 4 of the 6 winners and every first-time winner of the GN since 2014 has been a 2nd season chaser (24% of runners)
- Unbeaten in 2 chases at 25f (notching his 2 best chase RPRs at this, the furthest trip attempted), most recently in taking one of the best renewals of Thyestes in years on Soft (bordering GS), the form franked by well-beaten 7th Death Duty romping home 17 days later in the Irish GN Trial off just 1lb lower.
- The Poet's GN mark (OR155) is +10lbs on that win but his staying-on, level-weights defeat of Run Wild Fred (now OR158) over 25f on Heavy 14 months ago suggests that, especially over further, he may yet have something in hand.
- 6 chases to date is a bit light but he races like a more experienced horse and has performed with credit in Grade 1 company over hurdles and won in large fields in both disciplines
- Pedigree-wise, while there's no quality flat progeny, his cast of damsires is noteworthy:
o shares Dingo Dollar's damsire, Moscow Society, damsire of Seabass o 2nd damsire, Buckskin (G1 winner over 20f), sired 2004 GN winner Amberleigh House and was DS3 to Vic's Canvas (2016 3rd) o 3rd damsire, Raise You Ten, damsired GC winner and GN 5th Master Oats and was DS2 to Alvarado (twice GN 4th) o most significantly, he has the electric combo of Wild Risk (in X-Factor form) and Bold Ruler on his damside - as already noted, shared by only 8% of GN runners since 2013 but including every winner of the last 5 GNs and near-missers Saint Are, Magic Of Light and Rathvinden
- Hails from Martin Brassil's GN-winning yard (Numbersixvalverde)
- A run tomorrow (48 days prior) will make it 3 spins this season - perfect
- Like Fiddlerontheroof, off the same mark, he'd be advantaged by Galvin running, thus keeping his weight at 10.12 but his stat-profile is just about resilient to the probable hike to 11.03 if not.
This is a seriously likeable contender, potentially highly progressive at an extended trip and, with juice in the ground, is primed to give a bold show at Aintree if lining up.
Just to round things off, as well as Fiddler and Caribean Boy in the 3m Swinley Chase, Lostintranslation and Two For Gold (related to The Last Samuri) run an hour later in the big 21f chase at Ascot this afternoon and, sandwiched between, Easysland has a spin in a handicap hurdle. Top Ville Ben goes in the big hurdle at Haydock. In contrast to the first two, none of these 4 will be able to upgrade their GN stat-profile to figure on my team on 9 April.
Tomorrow, Run Wild Fred and Braeside are due to run in a novice chase at Navan. At the weights, it should be comfortable for Fred but he's got too high a mark in the GN for my model's liking and both of them have the National Hunt Chase at the Festival as their first target. Big ask to follow that up with a tilt at the Big One, though Braeside could be of interest, particularly though not solely on Soft at Aintree, if somehow avoiding a hard race at Cheltenham.
PS
Jesus it's gonna be ugly in the GN Trial on this ground.
So Caribean Boy (PU) well beaten a long way out. No excuses and fails to complete the upgrade to his profile to figure on my team for April. Makes life simpler. Fiddler travelled unconvincingly at the rear under topweight but ground it out on going that doesn't see him at his best; showing why he must have a decent surface at Aintree to figure IMO. Hit the front by the last but was just reeled in by the admirable Fortescue who relishes testing ground but, come rain or shine, won't have the necessary profile to float my boat on 9 April. Happy with the near miss for Fiddler (same 70% win/near-miss rate now over fences as Many Clouds, prior to his GN win). Hopefully, the Tizzards won't heed Fitzy's worrying suggestion beforehand that a win could see him take in the GC en route to Aintree. Please don't.
PS Fiddler pushed out to 33s - assuming the Tizzard's report all's well and next stop Aintree, a wrong read by the market IMHO (unless the view is this weather continues for another 7 weeks). I concur with RP's Mark Brown: "attempting to concede lumps of weight to his rivals, and having gutsed it out and got to the front at the last, he simply had no more to give on the run-in. Another fine run and he's got the class to be competitive in the Grand National".
CVs set out for definitely-intended runners Freewheelin Dylan, Fiddlerontheroof, Enjoy D'Allen and Dingo Dollar, and possible/probable runner Longhouse Poet, last but very much not least the potential history-maker and likely fav on the day, SNOW LEOPARDESS (16/1), whose winning stat-profile is resilient to decent ground but who would be my (and probably the entire universe's) NAP if the ground came up Soft or worse.
- 10 yo mare, already a mum, near-white Snowy would be the first mare since 1951 to take the GN and don't let that fact deter you if you're inclined to back her, because the small number of mares that have run in GNs in recent times (too small a sample from which to derive any meaningful stat) has produced its share of near-misses, most recently by Magic Of Light in 2019 but in the early 1990s, Auntie Dot 3rd, Ebony Jane 3rd (5 days after placing in an Irish GN) and Dubacilla 4th (23 days after her Gold Cup 2nd). If anything, the toughness of a mare that can make it into a GN line-up may give them an edge temperamentally.
- Impressive winner of December's Becher Chase on Soft, she jumped the fences beautifully and, despite last Sunday's romp home in the mud in a Listed Mares chase at Exeter, somewhat surprisingly her GN mark (OR145) is still just +5lbs for that 26f Becher win.
- She has form over further than that; out-paced but a staying-on 4th (17L) behind now 167-rated Galvin (receiving 7lbs as a mare) in the 30f NH novices chase at last year's Cheltenham Festival. It was Good-to-Soft ground that day, probably similar to that that Aintree will be aiming to serve up on the day and, in days when it was 2f further, she'd likely have finished a lot closer in that NH Chase. On paper she has 14lbs to find at the GN weights with Escaria Ten (3rd and 14L clear of her that day), also 16/1, but his delayed start to the season has cooked his goose from a stats-perspective.
- To reassure, she has other form on quickish ground, albeit in her pre-motherhood days, winning 3 times on officially Good and a competitive 20f Grade 2 mares hurdle on quick GS. Proper Good-to-Soft shouldn't inconvenience her but soft ground would certainly play best to her strengths in a GN, as a relentless galloper and brilliant jumper (100% completion in 9 chases and 7 hurdles, making the frame in all but 3), taking the finish out of many others.
- It's not all about her race record. Pedigree is a bullseye for a GN winner:
o Damsire is Persian Bold (damsire of 2016 GN winner Rule The World), who also has a top quality Group 1 winner at 10f+ among his flat progeny o Same goes for her 2nd and 3rd damsires - the latter, Lyphard, appearing in the cast of damsires for GN close 2nds Balthazar King and Cause Of Causes o Persian Bold brings Bold Ruler to her damside and, though without Wild Risk on her own damside, as a mare in receipt of an X chromosome from her sire Martaline, in theory this pairs with Wild Risk on his damside o allowing for this "twist", as noted above, she's one of only 4 likely runners (Minella Times, Fiddlerontheroof and Caribean Boy) that enjoy these rare pedigree characteristics, notably common to all 5 of the last GN winners and the last mare to near-miss, Magic Of Light
- a hat-trick of wins from her 3 runs this season, the last 55 days prior and set to carry 10.03~10.08 depending on topweight, she's right bang in the sweet spot for a GN winner or near-misser.
Short though 16/1 is, if she were from an Irish yard she'd be single digits clear-fav already. It's a stone cold certainty she will be on the day, when the proverbial housewives have their say.
As a postscript, yesterday's Swinley Chase winner on Ascot's notoriously testing Soft, the very genuine and ground-versatile Fortescue, is becoming a solid benchmark for current season 24~26f British chase form. It's worth remembering that he finished a creditable 7th, but 40L adrift of Fiddlerontheroof, in the 26f Hennessy on GS (Fiddler's prior outing, when a strong-finishing close 2nd). Interestingly, Fortescue's win was off a 3lb higher mark than when 3rd in October over 26f at Kelso, in which Dingo Dollar finished 4L back in 4th, conceding 16lbs to him - both making their season's debut. For what it's worth (though it often isn't much in a GN, to be frank), the form of both of Dingo's (creditable) runs this season (off 3 and 1lb higher marks than his GN OR148) have now been franked by wins in Class 1 24f handicaps off 3~5lbs higher marks. He's still due to run, with topweight, weather permitting in Wednesday's veterans chase at Donny. May or may not dry out to suit him but a safe spin will suffice with April in mind, providing Aintree serves up his much-preferred spring ground.
Navan off today so no run-out for Run Wild Fred or, the more interesting from my perspective, Braeside
A quick update. Longhouse Poet had a good blow in the 21f Boyne Hurdle on ground so bad that they went so slow that it turned into a sprint finish. Still 20/1 for the GN despite finishing 30L adrift (assuming he's uninjured, no concern on his stats).
Braeside struggled in Grade 2 company, which hopefully may persuade Elliott to bypass the NH Chase at The Festival, though the Kim Muir is another option. He'd figure as strong GN place potential (especially on Soft) on his current stats right now, but a hard race at Cheltenham has to be avoided. Run Wild Fred was a non-runner.
The handicapper was sufficiently impressed with Fiddlerontheroof's close 2nd on Saturday that he's raised him +2lbs to OR157, making him on paper 2lbs well-in for the GN (though that's neither here nor there stats-wise).
But it's an opportunity to further explain why he's my NAP for Aintree on decent ground.
As you probably know well by now, my model's designed to improve %s from betting each-way on a team of typically 6 runners (composition depending on the ground) that have the statistical best-fit with horses winning and placing up to 5th since 2013. Only 1 of those 40 horses making the frame 2013~21 defies explanation on his stats (Gilgamboa, 4th in 2016).
But there are different permutations of stats that are consistent with going well in a GN, though (partly because of the large element of luck required to win) I normally prefer not to attempt to identify the best winning chance from among them.
However, since 2015, a notable trend has become discernible as regards the specific permutation of a typical winner's stats and it’s the reason why, unusually, I’m identifying a NAP this year that is the optimum fit with that winning permutation.
It’s based on the following simple, apparently “golden" combination of stats.
Of all 276 runners in the 6 GNs 2015-21, only 8 of them ticked each of these 4 boxes:
• 2nd season chaser • Damsire has sired or damsired a G1 winner at 10f+ on the flat • Has Wild Risk on the damside • Won or finished <4L of winner of Class 1 or Irish Grade A or Listed chase that season
Just to emphasise, 268 other runners all failed one or more of these tests.
Staggeringly, if you backed just the 8 that ticked them all, you’d have found 5 of the 6 winners since 2015 and 2 more making the first 3 home (happily for e/w punters at 100 and 66/1). They were:
• Many Clouds – won 2015 • Cause Of Causes – 8th as 7yo 2015 (the only "dud") • Rule The World – won 2016 • Vics Canvas – 3rd 2016 • One For Arthur – won 2017 • Tiger Roll – won 2018 • Magic Of Light – 2nd 3L 2019 • Minella Times – won 2021
Of the likely runners this year there is only 1 entry that perfectly ticks all 4 of these boxes: FIDDLERONTHEROOF (33/1)
And I mention him again now because, after his close 2nd on Saturday (on heavy ground and lumping topweight), surprisingly he drifted out to 33s for the GN. He’s been nibbled at but Bet365 alone still offer him at 33s (5 places 1//4 odds).
If you are inclined to back him, that price may or may not last much longer. EDIT: indeed, now cut to 20s across the board
However, as explained previously, he would be best-suited by decent ground and it’s serendipitous that, with a rare “twist”, SNOW LEOPARDESS also could be said effectively to have that ideal stat permutation. Because though she misses out on Wild Risk on her damside, she ticks the other 3 boxes and, as a mare, has the benefit of an X-chromosome from her sire Martaline, who does have Wild Risk on his damside. In theory that may do the same job genetics-wise.
And while Fiddler is best-suited to a decent surface, happily Snow Leopardess (16/1 but certain to go off shorter still) is best-suited to Soft, though she’d still very much have claims on decent ground herself.
Hence, while this certainly does not amount to a crystal ball (and there will be others on my slip with other permutations of stats that give them a strong chance to go close and, with any sort of luck, potentially win), my NAPs for the 2022 GN are:
Fiddlerontheroof on Good or Good-to-Soft Snow Leopardess on Soft or worse
Snow Leopardess jumped superbly to win the recent Becher Chase where she was a gutsy winner, hanging on by a nose from the fast-finishing Hill Sixteen.
The winner is a grey mare who had a long period where she was out of training due to an injury and her owners used the time to put the mare in foal. Snow Leopardess must be the only mare to run over the national fences who is also a mum!
Immediately after winning the Becher Chase bookmakers began quoting odds for the mare for the National itself but trainer Charlie Longsdon reported that a return trip to Aintree is not a certainty. Longsdon suggested that Snow Leopardess’ owners are worried about the big field in the National for their valuable broodmare to be. She has also had two long breaks in her racing career caused by leg injuries so Snow Leopardess currently looks a risky ante-post bet for Aintree.
Snow Leopardess jumped superbly to win the recent Becher Chase where she was a gutsy winner, hanging on by a nose from the fast-finishing Hill Sixteen.
The winner is a grey mare who had a long period where she was out of training due to an injury and her owners used the time to put the mare in foal. Snow Leopardess must be the only mare to run over the national fences who is also a mum!
Immediately after winning the Becher Chase bookmakers began quoting odds for the mare for the National itself but trainer Charlie Longsdon reported that a return trip to Aintree is not a certainty. Longsdon suggested that Snow Leopardess’ owners are worried about the big field in the National for their valuable broodmare to be. She has also had two long breaks in her racing career caused by leg injuries so Snow Leopardess currently looks a risky ante-post bet for Aintree.
Thanks @RobinKeepsBobbin That is indeed what Charlie said after the Becher Chase. However, the reason he ran her at Exeter 10 days ago was to (hopefully) ensure that she makes the cut for the GN and this is what he said on Wednesday last week, after the GN weights were unveiled:
"You certainly hope to get in being number 57 on the list as it is normally about 70-odd that gets in. We've got to keep our fingers crossed, but it is all very exciting. Running off 10st 3lb would be some weight, but it won't be that unfortunately. She will still be under 11st though so it will still be a nice, light weight........
"There is no doubt she loved those fences (in the Becher Chase). She was just idling in the Becher, so the trip will be no issue.
We can sit back now though and prepare her for the Grand National."
JP buys Enjoy D'Allen McManus is now responsible for 12 entries and, besides School Boy Hours (touch and go whether he'll make the cut), Enjoy D'Allen's comfortably his best chance on the stats IMHO. Market thinks so too - cut to 14/1 fav
Not sure what was up with Oddschecker yesterday pm but Fiddler is still at 33s with Bet365 (only - otherwise 25s top price)
Top 6 Stat-profiles on Good or GS (assuming cut at OR145):
Fiddlerontheroof 33/1
Dingo Dollar 50/1
Freewheelin Dylan 100/1
Enjoy D'Allen 14/1
Longhouse Poet 20/1
Snow Leopardess 16/1
Top 6 on Soft or Heavy
Snow Leopardess 16/1
Longhouse Poet 20/1
Enjoy D'Allen 14/1
Braeside 40/1 (providing no hard race at The Festival)
Eider Chase day at Newcastle today, over 33.5f on GS. 2 with GN entries that could make the cut, Domaine De L'Isle (who could give himself a place chance in the GN if going close tomorrow)and Eclair Surf (who would have a chance on his stats on Soft but off OR143needs a few defections to line up) of main interest GN-wise. As a bets, my first e/w shilling shall be carried at by Achille (now 20/1) - very consistent over extended trips (the further the better). 7lbs lower mark that when staying-on 7L behind the winner of the Midlands National a year ago (the only other 4m+ chase he's attempted) and 3lbs taken off by Hugh Nugent, who steered him nicely to 4th in the Welsh GN, he can at last enjoy the cigar. The very likeable mare Win My Wings (15/2) (related to Righthand Man, Welsh GN winner, Gold Cup and Scot Nat 2nd)and Innisfree Lad (20/1) will join him on my slip.
Kempton sees the Coral Trophy. You have to go way back to 1996 to find it pointing to the GN winner (Rough Quest taking it in his prep for Aintree glory in 1996) but topweight Good Boy Bobby (40/1 for the GN), related to Shishkin and 2009 Whitbread (aka Bet365) winner Hennessy, could give his stats an upgrade to minor place potential on 9 April if he wins or goes close today (16/1).
And a small but high quality field of 4 contest the Bobbyjo at Fairyhouse, all from GN-winning yards and all as preps for their GN tilts: Any Second Now, Burrows Saint, Escaria Ten andCoko Beach With the first 3 much-hyped and prominent in the market, no doubt the winner will attract a lot more support for 9 April. But regardless of which scores tomorrow, for differing reasons (Any Second Now = weight, Burrows Saint = ran out of gas last time, Escaria Ten = too late a start to his campaign, Coko Beach = failed at extended trips), none of them will upgrade their stat-profiles to be in the mix on my reckoning. The Irish challenge emanates from other yards this year IMO.
Meanwhile Fiddlerontheroof is now indeed cut to 20s by Bet365.
YAY! 1st (Win My Wings) and 3rd (Innisfree Lad) in the Eider. Luvely jubbly.
Excellent close 2nd by Eclair Surf, a stayer very much on the up, and (however unlikely) if somehow sneaking into the line up on 9 April, he'd have a good chance of being in the mix on Soft.
Fantastic finish in the Bobbyjo, with Any Second Now reeling in Escaria Ten to nick it on the nod of heads, both a mile clear of Burrows Saint. No doubt a lot to encourage supporters of the front 2 but, though both could go well for a long way on 9 April, their stat-profiles aren't strong enough by my reckoning to have them in the mix at the business end.
Good Boy Bobby disappoints and Phoenix Way departs early (nasty looking fall, hopefully OK) in the Coral Trophy, leaving them also short of the necessary.
Edit - Sure enough, Any Second Now cut to 12/1 fav, Escaria Ten cut to 14s
YAY! 1st (Win My Wings) and 3rd (Innisfree Lad) in the Eider. Luvely jubbly.
Excellent close 2nd by Eclair Surf, a stayer very much on the up, and (however unlikely) if somehow sneaking into the line up on 9 April, he'd have a good chance of being in the mix on Soft.
Wonder if Goldberg had anything on it? Could do with a forward desperately. Sorry to derail a very worthy thread.
Especially if the Irish handicapper cuts him some slack after today, if I were Mullins or Ricci, I’d aim Burrows Saint at Fairyhouse again, not Aintree. They know from last year he doesn’t get 4m and he’d likely have another 5lbs to carry this year. He may shoulder topweight for the Irish this time but it’s been won by class horses with big weights before. No chance at Aintree surely.
In case you're interested in whether your fancies have individual key stats that I've highlighted previously that are common to recent winners, here are the 2 particularly strong ones (pedigree and 2nd season chaser) and these are the entries (top 67 down to OR143) with one or other, in combination with a rock-solid CV stat filter (form at 26f+ or never tried at 26f+):
The right pedigree (18 of 67) [7 of last 8 GN winners ticked this box from 23% of fields]:
Conflated (2)
Minella Times (1 & 2)
Tiger Roll (1 & 2)
Delta Work (2)
Any Second Now (3 - Gilgamboa, via DS4)
Lostintranslation (1)
Mount Ida (3 - Balthazar King, via DS6)
Fiddlerontheroof (1 & 2)
Longhouse Poet (2)
Caribean Boy (1 & 2)
Dingo Dollar (2)
Cloth Cap (2 & 3 - Amberleigh House, via DS4)
Freewheelin Dylan (2)
Mighty Thunder (2)
Agusta Gold (2)
Phoenix Way (1)
Snow Leopardess (1 & ?2)
Death Duty (2)
(1) Group 1 winning at 10f+ flat progeny of damsire & DS2 or DS3 (2) Wild Risk X-Factor or combo with Bold Ruler on damside (3) GN form in family
The right 2nd season chaser (13) [6 of last 7 GN winners ticked this box from 13% of fields]:
Run Wild Fred (1)
Assemble (2)
Mount Ida (1)
Fiddlerontheroof (1)
Longhouse Poet (2)
Escaria Ten (1)
Court Maid (1)
Braeside (1)
Enjoy D'Allen (1)
Highland Hunter (1)
Mighty Thunder (1)
Snow Leopardess (1)
Eclair Surf (1)
(1) Form at 26f+ (2) Never tried at 26f+ but 100% win/near-miss in chases at 23.5f+ (as Minella Times was last year)
4 of the last 5 GN winners ticked both of these boxes (as did only 5 other runners [4.5% of fields]) and, as you can see, 5 entries do so this time: Mount Ida, Fiddlerontheroof, Longhouse Poet, Mighty Thunder and Snow Leopardess
Credentials have been explained above for Fiddlerontheroof, Longhouse Poet and Snow Leopardess. For the other 2:
Mount Ida - has 4th/5th place potential but will likely have too much weight (11.04) for her profile to finish <20L Mighty Thunder - season's form poor and wind op expected. If successful without reaction under extreme-stress, he has the overall stat-profile to go close
Comments
There was a happy time when you could confidently put a line through any GN runner without form at 26f+, let alone one untried beyond 24 or 25f. But the post-2012 course and fence changes put paid to that and near-missing Magic Of Light in 2019 and Minella Times a year ago, showed that, for a young, unexposed chaser with the right 3m credentials and (crucially) the rare, spot-on pedigree, it's possible to excel in a GN.
The record of 8 year-olds particularly since 2015, when the GN saw speed from the Off return after the caution of 2013, has been markedly better than prior to the course changes. The last 8 yo winner pre-2015 had been Bindaree in 2002 but 8 yos have won 4 of the 6 GNs since 2015 (9 yos the other 2) and that's with 8yos representing 20% of the 236 runners.
It may require a leap of faith to back them but the returns can be rewarding of course (Magic Of Light's SP was 66/1 and Minella Times had run his final prep and was available at 40s prior to his jockey and trainer's stellar Cheltenham).
This year there is 1 unexposed youngster that ticks that pedigree box in full; Caribean Boy. But he has to defy not only the recent Irish domination of the race but Nicky Henderson's notoriously abysmal GN record. So, it might require a particularly large leap of faith to back him.
But there are reasons to consider doing so.
- Like Fiddler, he has the combo of Wild Risk and Bold Ruler on his damside, shared by only 8% of GN runners since 2013 but including each of the last 5 winners.
- His 1st, 2nd and 3rd damsires all produced G1 winners at 10f+, rated RPR120+ on the flat.
- Of all 316 GN runners since 2013, only 3 shared these specific damside characteristics and all 3 won (Rule The World, One For Arthur and Tiger Roll)
It's a big stretch of the imagination to liken Caribean Boy with those 3, all with form at 29f+ prior to their GN debuts. But he hasn't been put to the test over an extended trip and, to state the obvious, the beauty (or flaw!) of a stats-model is that it can identify potentially key attributes in an unexposed runner that the market's not spotting or valuing - almost inevitably, it's a high risk/return selection.Being an unexposed youngster in a GN can yield the benefit of an advantageous weight and Caribean is set to carry a very workable 10.06~10.11.
He also has prior experience of the GN fences, having travelled OK and jumped nicely (including The Chair and Bechers) in last year's Topham on decent ground, until making a hash of Foinavon (11th). He had Daryl Jacob on board that day but James Bowen pilots him on Saturday and he's 2 from 2 as his partner.
He's thought to prefer juice in the ground, at least at shorter trips, and he'll get that on Saturday but he won a Grade 2 at Newbury in faster than standard, albeit a small field (incl. Fiddlerontheroof).
4 runs in the season with Saturday's prep, 49 days prior is spot on.
To take the 40s now or not? With other GN candidates to consider and, as he's offered at 13/2, there's enough juice for me to prefer a hedging punt on Saturday's race.
The race is unlikely to tell us anything we don't know already about those running with GN marks that are likely to make the cut.
- A safe spin is all that's needed to put Lord Du Mesnil on the shortlist if (and only if) it's wet in April on Merseyside.
- Ditto Blaklion off his current GN mark
- A win or near-miss for Sam Brown likewise
- More versatile as to going, a win or near-miss for Kalooki (related to State Of Play) would give him the stat-profile to emulate his much-loved relative with a modest place (at best) in the Big One.
Gonna be a slog.Apologies if it's a statement of the bleeding obvious.
They NEVER give us CERTAINTIES (obviously so in any event involving humans and horses, let alone one in which fortune plays a huge part) but they CAN IDENTIFY STRONG POSSIBILITIES and POTENTIAL.
I use a model in betting because I want to improve the % returns OVER TIME from my bets and I use it exclusively in the GN because, more than any other horse race IMHO:
- there is a range of common and statistically significant factors observable (with some common but some differing permutations) in previously successful horses (horses only, not their yards or jockies), and
- hype and a tendency for the market to over-rate the chances of horses from some "top yards" or ridden by "headline jockies" or of "quality" (established for the most part at up to 24f), tends to cause market distortions (sometimes incredibly large) in the odds offered for SOME of the runners with the best-fit with the truly significant factors.
That's true even now for FREEWHEELIN DYLAN (strongly so) at 66/1 and for FIDDLERONTHEROOF (somewhat) at 25/1.But obviously the market is capable of spotting some key trends and sometimes does latch on to a runner with a great chance on their stats and, from the start or in the course of time, prices it accordingly. It's why I start looking at potential GN runners from November onwards and am prepared to take antepost punts which, despite some lost stakes, to date have comfortably been more than offset by the profits from my model, helped by early prices secured on successful bets.
To cope with the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune, I aim to back (odds-weighted and e/w) every runner identified by the model with a good "fit" statistically with former winners or near-missers and as that's typically 6~8 runners, making the exercise profitable means taking the risk on early prices when sensible but also being prepared to back runners whose stats make the grade late, even if the market has already latched on to them.
The model aims to be "scientific", the betting strategy has to remain more "art".
If you haven't been reading this thread and got on board when he was first identified at 50/1, then 40/1, unfortunately ENJOY D'ALLEN now at 18/1 is probably fairly-priced. But obviously that has no bearing on his potential for doing the business and, if you're a later-stage punter aiming to back 3 or 4, you may still consider him eminently backable at that price.
Given my betting strategy, other than on occasion selecting a NAP for fun, I don't rank the chances of the runners identified by the model because each has a different permutation of "good fit".
However, if I had to rank them I might do so based upon my best-estimate of their relative weights based on head-to-head and collateral form. If I were to do so now, I would rank them thus (ignoring School Boy Hours and Braeside, who may not line up):
ASSUMING GOOD or GOOD-to-SOFT (crucial) and that Galvin and Conflated are scratched:
- Fiddlerontheroof (currently 25/1)
- Dingo Dollar (50/1)
- Freewheelin Dylan (66/1)
- Enjoy D'Allen (18/1)
- Longhouse Poet (16/1)
- Snow Leopardess (16/1)
But bear in mind. THESE RANKINGS ARE ME, NOT MY MODEL, which rates all 6 as potential winners - assuming the going is Good or GS.If it's Soft, the chances of the top 3 would all be materially impaired.
The (hopefully) good news, as you'll have spotted, is that another runner with a "wild price" (poo-poohed by the market), has emerged as a serious contender on the stats, now that an entry's been made for him which, if fulfilled with a safe spin, will tick a key remaining box.
As noted above, Caribean Boy (40/1) will join the list (ranking yet to be determined) if he puts in a big run tomorrow.
I've already set out the CV for Dylan and Fiddler and I'll shortly provide the same for the other 4. Meanwhile I'm keeping everything crossed for a not-wet spring - more than any other year I can recall, the complexion of the best team is heavily going-dependent.
So, the GN credentials of ENJOY D’ALLEN (18/1)
I mentioned prior to December’s Paddy Power Hdcp at Leopardstown, which has been a good pointer in recent years for young Irish contenders in the GN, that if EDA went close he’d be there or thereabouts on his stats for Aintree. And so he did, finishing a keeping-on 3rd (3L) under 11.06 (OR143).
It was quickish ground that day (the race time 21 secs faster than the previous year, when Minella Times and Farclas came 2nd and 3rd), with the usual hurly-burly that makes this 0~150 and big field handicap (28 runners this year) a decent test for a GN and his near-miss confirmed EDA’s good GN profile:
- Highly consistent, he’s made the frame (never out of the first 3) in all 10 chases 20~29f (2 wins and 5 near-misses <5L)
- That includes his staying-on close 3rd (4.5L) to Dylan in last April’s Irish GN. The GN record of former Irish GN winners or near-missers continues to be decent post-2012; from 14 runs, 5 made the frame (1st~5th), including the 2016 winner Rule The World (i.e. 4.4% of runners contributing 12.5% of winners and first 5 places).
- He’ll be off a GN mark of 148, 6lbs higher than the Irish GN and 3lbs higher than PP Hdcp, but the form of both races has been nicely franked:
o 2nd in the Irish GN was Run Wild Fred who subsequently, off a 5lb higher mark, gave weight and a 7L beating to Farclas, earning a further hike to OR158 (a full 18lbs higher than his IGN mark)
o January’s strong renewal of the Thyestes on Soft ground (won impressively by Longhouse Poet) initially cast doubt on the quality of this year’s PP Hdcp but its form was subsequently franked by Birchdale (effectively off 4lbs higher than when 6th in the PP) romping home in a competitive Grade A in early Feb (closely followed by the PP 7th) and Death Duty (5th in the PP) taking last Sunday’s Irish GN Trial.
- His pedigree doesn’t tick all the boxes but has some notable characteristics consistent with GN success and, save for the absence Wild Risk on his damside, is reminiscent of Saint Are’s:
o Same sire (the highly regarded German stallion Network)
o Saint Are’s damsire = EDA’s 2nd damsire, Video Rock who notably brings Bold Ruler to the party in X-Factor form
o Damsire is Dom Alco, who damsired Gold Cup winner Al Boum Photo and sired GN winner Neptune Collonges and x2 Scot Nat winners
o From the family of Envoi Allen and more pertinently Auvergnat, winner of the 33.5f La Touche XC.
- He’ll head straight to Aintree now, with 3 runs in the season, the last 63 days prior – including the PP near-miss, that’s identical to Minella Times last year.
- Effectively assured to make the cut, he’ll carry 10.05 or more likely 10.10, depending on topweight – workable in either case.
- Acts on any ground but probably best-suited by genuine Good-to-Soft
In summary, he’s got a very strong GN profile for a huge run, to be well in the mix at the business end. He’s thoroughly genuine and, barring mishap, sure to give a good run for our money, but the absence of Wild Risk on his damside perhaps suggests no cigar. But there's always those slings and arrows.
More anon.
Just outside the winners' (but not near-missers') sweet spot age-wise but a rejuvenation from a change of yard is what’s propelled the stats-profile of 10yo DINGO DOLLAR (50/1) to strong GN potential, providing the ground is decent.
- Back-to-back placings in the Hennessy (aka Ladbrokes Trophy), the first in 2018 notably off his GN mark OR148 and with 11.03 on less than ideal Soft ground, seemed a distant memory in 2020 when, a month after wind surgery, Dingo had his final outing for Alan King – on the face of it, an off-putting PU over the GN fences in the Grand Sefton over 21f and on Soft.- That flop no doubt contributes to market scepticism about Dingo (maybe the cheekpieces add to it) but, with circumstances very much against him that day, his career-best form since the same owners then moved him to the canny Scot, Sandy Thomson, IMHO gives good reason to look past it.
- Notably, he achieved a career-high RPR155 at the furthest trip attempted when a keeping-on close 2nd (0.75L) under 11.02 in last April’s 4m Scottish GN (OR145). While young winners/near-missers of the Ayr marathon have disappointed in year-later GNs, he’s more like the seasoned chasers Hello Bud and Aurora’s Encore, who went on a year later from winning and near-missing at Ayr, respectively, to place 5th in and win the GN in 2010 and 2013.
- Indeed, since joining Thomson, Dingo’s been ridden by Aurora’s GN-winning pilot Ryan Mania
- There’s an interesting form line from that Scot Nat because 3rd (4L) that day, Mister Fogpatches (receiving 16lbs from Dingo), has become a solid, contemporary benchmark for both British and Irish stayers:
o Foggy’s 3rd in November’s Troytown behind Run Wild Fred and Farclas, on paper off their GN marks, puts Dingo 10lbs well-in with last year’s GN 5th (25/1 for this GN)
o His 3rd in January’s Thyestes (a particularly strong renewal) puts Dingo 9lbs well-in with the impressive winner Longhouse Poet (20/1)
- Clearly a campaign with Aintree in mind, form in 2 runs this season has been creditable, achieving his 2nd-highest career RPR153 when placing 3rd in November’s Rehearsal Chase, the form of that franked by 2nd Good Boy Bobby’s win off 5lbs higher in the Rowland Meyrick a month later.
- Not seen since, presumably waiting for GN weights and better ground, and has a chance of getting that at Doncaster for Wednesday’s veterans’ chase (the race used by Saint Are for his latter Aintree preps, including when 3rd in the 2017 GN).
- Indeed, ground is key to Dingo's best form; his strike rate being materially better on spring ground (75% win/near-miss rate over fences from mid-Mar to end-April, compared to 17% at other times)
- Pedigree-wise ticks a key box, if not hitting the bullseye as regards quality flat progeny of damsires:
o Damsire Moscow Society was damsire of 2012 GN 3rd Seabass
o He has the electric combo of Wild Risk and Bold Ruler on his damside, shared by only 8% of GN runners since 2013 but every winner of the last 5 GNs and near-missers Saint Are, Magic Of Light and Rathvinden
- If he runs on Wednesday, a safe spin will suffice and he'll head to Aintree with 3 runs in the season, the last 45 days’ prior – in the sweet spot.
- Typically races handy, always a positive in a GN, and effectively assured a run, he’ll carry 10.05 or, more likely, 10.10 – very winnable-with, providing the ground is decent.
I was wondering, does your model factor in a perception of positive or negative performance by a horse in big fields?
If I take Caribean Boy for example: 3-1-1-3-4-1 in small field chases; compared to 7-PU-10-F in chases with 10 or more runners.
This can be over-simplistic because it might not be straightforward to associate a DNF with running in a big field, and a big defeat on paper might not be as much in distance with more runners (Caribean Boy's 10th was <9L when he's had a 3rd losing by a greater distance), but do you factor in field size of form as a variable?
Thanks!
Answer is yes and you're absolutely right to point that out about Caribean Boy.
One of the 13 tests in the first half of my model's screen is to have placed or finished <10L in a chase with 15+ runners (I cut some slack if a runner did so with 14 and it was the largest field they'd experienced).
In his case the jury is perhaps out, as he's mainly run in smaller fields (and against only 9 today) but he did tick the box with his 8L (albeit 10th of 19) defeat in November in always-competitive PP Gold Cup at Cheltenham, though he did race on the outside.
He also ran well (13L 7th) and wasn't seemingly disconcerted (in the middle of the pack) by 20 rivals in the PP Plate at last year's Festival.
He faced 25 rivals in the Topham and, to get a view of the fences, raced wide but went well enough (IMO) until thumping Foinavon.
It's always difficult with a youngster but, aside from technically ticking the box, I don't see anything in the big field chases he's experienced to suggest he won't be OK, though of course the occasion can always get to any horse.
And while there's a slight reservation about the absolute GN weight he'll likely and the possibility that he may wait for Fairyhouse if the ground is too quick at Aintree, the Poet is one of the few with a stat-profile rated as strong potential to go very well on 9 April on GS or softer (the more juice the better his chance).
- 8 year old in his 2nd season season chasing - a "stat-bullseye", as noted for Enjoy D'Allen above, because since 2015 8 yos (20% of GN runners) contributed 4 of the 6 winners and every first-time winner of the GN since 2014 has been a 2nd season chaser (24% of runners)
- Unbeaten in 2 chases at 25f (notching his 2 best chase RPRs at this, the furthest trip attempted), most recently in taking one of the best renewals of Thyestes in years on Soft (bordering GS), the form franked by well-beaten 7th Death Duty romping home 17 days later in the Irish GN Trial off just 1lb lower.
- The Poet's GN mark (OR155) is +10lbs on that win but his staying-on, level-weights defeat of Run Wild Fred (now OR158) over 25f on Heavy 14 months ago suggests that, especially over further, he may yet have something in hand.
- 6 chases to date is a bit light but he races like a more experienced horse and has performed with credit in Grade 1 company over hurdles and won in large fields in both disciplines
- Pedigree-wise, while there's no quality flat progeny, his cast of damsires is noteworthy:
o shares Dingo Dollar's damsire, Moscow Society, damsire of Seabass
o 2nd damsire, Buckskin (G1 winner over 20f), sired 2004 GN winner Amberleigh House and was DS3 to Vic's Canvas (2016 3rd)
o 3rd damsire, Raise You Ten, damsired GC winner and GN 5th Master Oats and was DS2 to Alvarado (twice GN 4th)
o most significantly, he has the electric combo of Wild Risk (in X-Factor form) and Bold Ruler on his damside - as already noted, shared by only 8% of GN runners since 2013 but including every winner of the last 5 GNs and near-missers Saint Are, Magic Of Light and Rathvinden
- Hails from Martin Brassil's GN-winning yard (Numbersixvalverde)
- A run tomorrow (48 days prior) will make it 3 spins this season - perfect
- Like Fiddlerontheroof, off the same mark, he'd be advantaged by Galvin running, thus keeping his weight at 10.12 but his stat-profile is just about resilient to the probable hike to 11.03 if not.
This is a seriously likeable contender, potentially highly progressive at an extended trip and, with juice in the ground, is primed to give a bold show at Aintree if lining up.
Top Ville Ben goes in the big hurdle at Haydock.
In contrast to the first two, none of these 4 will be able to upgrade their GN stat-profile to figure on my team on 9 April.
Tomorrow, Run Wild Fred and Braeside are due to run in a novice chase at Navan. At the weights, it should be comfortable for Fred but he's got too high a mark in the GN for my model's liking and both of them have the National Hunt Chase at the Festival as their first target.
Big ask to follow that up with a tilt at the Big One, though Braeside could be of interest, particularly though not solely on Soft at Aintree, if somehow avoiding a hard race at Cheltenham.
PS
Jesus it's gonna be ugly in the GN Trial on this ground.
COYR
Fiddler travelled unconvincingly at the rear under topweight but ground it out on going that doesn't see him at his best; showing why he must have a decent surface at Aintree to figure IMO.
Hit the front by the last but was just reeled in by the admirable Fortescue who relishes testing ground but, come rain or shine, won't have the necessary profile to float my boat on 9 April.
Happy with the near miss for Fiddler (same 70% win/near-miss rate now over fences as Many Clouds, prior to his GN win). Hopefully, the Tizzards won't heed Fitzy's worrying suggestion beforehand that a win could see him take in the GC en route to Aintree. Please don't.
PS
Fiddler pushed out to 33s - assuming the Tizzard's report all's well and next stop Aintree, a wrong read by the market IMHO (unless the view is this weather continues for another 7 weeks).
I concur with RP's Mark Brown: "attempting to concede lumps of weight to his rivals, and having gutsed it out and got to the front at the last, he simply had no more to give on the run-in. Another fine run and he's got the class to be competitive in the Grand National".
- 10 yo mare, already a mum, near-white Snowy would be the first mare since 1951 to take the GN and don't let that fact deter you if you're inclined to back her, because the small number of mares that have run in GNs in recent times (too small a sample from which to derive any meaningful stat) has produced its share of near-misses, most recently by Magic Of Light in 2019 but in the early 1990s, Auntie Dot 3rd, Ebony Jane 3rd (5 days after placing in an Irish GN) and Dubacilla 4th (23 days after her Gold Cup 2nd). If anything, the toughness of a mare that can make it into a GN line-up may give them an edge temperamentally.
- Impressive winner of December's Becher Chase on Soft, she jumped the fences beautifully and, despite last Sunday's romp home in the mud in a Listed Mares chase at Exeter, somewhat surprisingly her GN mark (OR145) is still just +5lbs for that 26f Becher win.
- She has form over further than that; out-paced but a staying-on 4th (17L) behind now 167-rated Galvin (receiving 7lbs as a mare) in the 30f NH novices chase at last year's Cheltenham Festival. It was Good-to-Soft ground that day, probably similar to that that Aintree will be aiming to serve up on the day and, in days when it was 2f further, she'd likely have finished a lot closer in that NH Chase. On paper she has 14lbs to find at the GN weights with Escaria Ten (3rd and 14L clear of her that day), also 16/1, but his delayed start to the season has cooked his goose from a stats-perspective.
- To reassure, she has other form on quickish ground, albeit in her pre-motherhood days, winning 3 times on officially Good and a competitive 20f Grade 2 mares hurdle on quick GS. Proper Good-to-Soft shouldn't inconvenience her but soft ground would certainly play best to her strengths in a GN, as a relentless galloper and brilliant jumper (100% completion in 9 chases and 7 hurdles, making the frame in all but 3), taking the finish out of many others.
- It's not all about her race record. Pedigree is a bullseye for a GN winner:
o Damsire is Persian Bold (damsire of 2016 GN winner Rule The World), who also has a top quality Group 1 winner at 10f+ among his flat progeny
o Same goes for her 2nd and 3rd damsires - the latter, Lyphard, appearing in the cast of damsires for GN close 2nds Balthazar King and Cause Of Causes
o Persian Bold brings Bold Ruler to her damside and, though without Wild Risk on her own damside, as a mare in receipt of an X chromosome from her sire Martaline, in theory this pairs with Wild Risk on his damside
o allowing for this "twist", as noted above, she's one of only 4 likely runners (Minella Times, Fiddlerontheroof and Caribean Boy) that enjoy these rare pedigree characteristics, notably common to all 5 of the last GN winners and the last mare to near-miss, Magic Of Light
- a hat-trick of wins from her 3 runs this season, the last 55 days prior and set to carry 10.03~10.08 depending on topweight, she's right bang in the sweet spot for a GN winner or near-misser.
Short though 16/1 is, if she were from an Irish yard she'd be single digits clear-fav already. It's a stone cold certainty she will be on the day, when the proverbial housewives have their say.
It's worth remembering that he finished a creditable 7th, but 40L adrift of Fiddlerontheroof, in the 26f Hennessy on GS (Fiddler's prior outing, when a strong-finishing close 2nd).
Interestingly, Fortescue's win was off a 3lb higher mark than when 3rd in October over 26f at Kelso, in which Dingo Dollar finished 4L back in 4th, conceding 16lbs to him - both making their season's debut.
For what it's worth (though it often isn't much in a GN, to be frank), the form of both of Dingo's (creditable) runs this season (off 3 and 1lb higher marks than his GN OR148) have now been franked by wins in Class 1 24f handicaps off 3~5lbs higher marks.
He's still due to run, with topweight, weather permitting in Wednesday's veterans chase at Donny. May or may not dry out to suit him but a safe spin will suffice with April in mind, providing Aintree serves up his much-preferred spring ground.
Navan off today so no run-out for Run Wild Fred or, the more interesting from my perspective, Braeside
Edit - now rescheduled for Tuesday
A quick update. Longhouse Poet had a good blow in the 21f Boyne Hurdle on ground so bad that they went so slow that it turned into a sprint finish. Still 20/1 for the GN despite finishing 30L adrift (assuming he's uninjured, no concern on his stats).
Braeside struggled in Grade 2 company, which hopefully may persuade Elliott to bypass the NH Chase at The Festival, though the Kim Muir is another option. He'd figure as strong GN place potential (especially on Soft) on his current stats right now, but a hard race at Cheltenham has to be avoided. Run Wild Fred was a non-runner.
The handicapper was sufficiently impressed with Fiddlerontheroof's close 2nd on Saturday that he's raised him +2lbs to OR157, making him on paper 2lbs well-in for the GN (though that's neither here nor there stats-wise).
But it's an opportunity to further explain why he's my NAP for Aintree on decent ground.
As you probably know well by now, my model's designed to improve %s from betting each-way on a team of typically 6 runners (composition depending on the ground) that have the statistical best-fit with horses winning and placing up to 5th since 2013. Only 1 of those 40 horses making the frame 2013~21 defies explanation on his stats (Gilgamboa, 4th in 2016).
But there are different permutations of stats that are consistent with going well in a GN, though (partly because of the large element of luck required to win) I normally prefer not to attempt to identify the best winning chance from among them.
However, since 2015, a notable trend has become discernible as regards the specific permutation of a typical winner's stats and it’s the reason why, unusually, I’m identifying a NAP this year that is the optimum fit with that winning permutation.
It’s based on the following simple, apparently “golden" combination of stats.
Of all 276 runners in the 6 GNs 2015-21, only 8 of them ticked each of these 4 boxes:
• 2nd season chaser
• Damsire has sired or damsired a G1 winner at 10f+ on the flat
• Has Wild Risk on the damside
• Won or finished <4L of winner of Class 1 or Irish Grade A or Listed chase that season
Just to emphasise, 268 other runners all failed one or more of these tests.
Staggeringly, if you backed just the 8 that ticked them all, you’d have found 5 of the 6 winners since 2015 and 2 more making the first 3 home (happily for e/w punters at 100 and 66/1). They were:
• Many Clouds – won 2015
• Cause Of Causes – 8th as 7yo 2015 (the only "dud")
• Rule The World – won 2016
• Vics Canvas – 3rd 2016
• One For Arthur – won 2017
• Tiger Roll – won 2018
• Magic Of Light – 2nd 3L 2019
• Minella Times – won 2021
Of the likely runners this year there is only 1 entry that perfectly ticks all 4 of these boxes: FIDDLERONTHEROOF (33/1)
And I mention him again now because, after his close 2nd on Saturday (on heavy ground and lumping topweight), surprisingly he drifted out to 33s for the GN. He’s been nibbled at but Bet365 alone still offer him at 33s (5 places 1//4 odds).
If you are inclined to back him, that price may or may not last much longer. EDIT: indeed, now cut to 20s across the board
However, as explained previously, he would be best-suited by decent ground and it’s serendipitous that, with a rare “twist”, SNOW LEOPARDESS also could be said effectively to have that ideal stat permutation. Because though she misses out on Wild Risk on her damside, she ticks the other 3 boxes and, as a mare, has the benefit of an X-chromosome from her sire Martaline, who does have Wild Risk on his damside. In theory that may do the same job genetics-wise.
And while Fiddler is best-suited to a decent surface, happily Snow Leopardess (16/1 but certain to go off shorter still) is best-suited to Soft, though she’d still very much have claims on decent ground herself.
Hence, while this certainly does not amount to a crystal ball (and there will be others on my slip with other permutations of stats that give them a strong chance to go close and, with any sort of luck, potentially win), my NAPs for the 2022 GN are:
Fiddlerontheroof on Good or Good-to-Soft
Snow Leopardess on Soft or worse
That's guaranteed a
Snow Leopardess jumped superbly to win the recent Becher Chase where she was a gutsy winner, hanging on by a nose from the fast-finishing Hill Sixteen.
The winner is a grey mare who had a long period where she was out of training due to an injury and her owners used the time to put the mare in foal. Snow Leopardess must be the only mare to run over the national fences who is also a mum!
Immediately after winning the Becher Chase bookmakers began quoting odds for the mare for the National itself but trainer Charlie Longsdon reported that a return trip to Aintree is not a certainty. Longsdon suggested that Snow Leopardess’ owners are worried about the big field in the National for their valuable broodmare to be. She has also had two long breaks in her racing career caused by leg injuries so Snow Leopardess currently looks a risky ante-post bet for Aintree.
That is indeed what Charlie said after the Becher Chase.
However, the reason he ran her at Exeter 10 days ago was to (hopefully) ensure that she makes the cut for the GN and this is what he said on Wednesday last week, after the GN weights were unveiled:
"You certainly hope to get in being number 57 on the list as it is normally about 70-odd that gets in. We've got to keep our fingers crossed, but it is all very exciting. Running off 10st 3lb would be some weight, but it won't be that unfortunately. She will still be under 11st though so it will still be a nice, light weight........
"There is no doubt she loved those fences (in the Becher Chase). She was just idling in the Becher, so the trip will be no issue.
We can sit back now though and prepare her for the Grand National."
McManus is now responsible for 12 entries and, besides School Boy Hours (touch and go whether he'll make the cut), Enjoy D'Allen's comfortably his best chance on the stats IMHO.
Market thinks so too - cut to 14/1 fav
Not sure what was up with Oddschecker yesterday pm but Fiddler is still at 33s with Bet365 (only - otherwise 25s top price)
Top 6 Stat-profiles on Good or GS (assuming cut at OR145):
Top 6 on Soft or Heavy
2 with GN entries that could make the cut, Domaine De L'Isle (who could give himself a place chance in the GN if going close tomorrow) and Eclair Surf (who would have a chance on his stats on Soft but off OR143needs a few defections to line up) of main interest GN-wise.
As a bets, my first e/w shilling shall be carried at by Achille (now 20/1) - very consistent over extended trips (the further the better). 7lbs lower mark that when staying-on 7L behind the winner of the Midlands National a year ago (the only other 4m+ chase he's attempted) and 3lbs taken off by Hugh Nugent, who steered him nicely to 4th in the Welsh GN, he can at last enjoy the cigar.
The very likeable mare Win My Wings (15/2) (related to Righthand Man, Welsh GN winner, Gold Cup and Scot Nat 2nd) and Innisfree Lad (20/1) will join him on my slip.
And a small but high quality field of 4 contest the Bobbyjo at Fairyhouse, all from GN-winning yards and all as preps for their GN tilts: Any Second Now, Burrows Saint, Escaria Ten and Coko Beach
With the first 3 much-hyped and prominent in the market, no doubt the winner will attract a lot more support for 9 April.
But regardless of which scores tomorrow, for differing reasons (Any Second Now = weight, Burrows Saint = ran out of gas last time, Escaria Ten = too late a start to his campaign, Coko Beach = failed at extended trips), none of them will upgrade their stat-profiles to be in the mix on my reckoning.
The Irish challenge emanates from other yards this year IMO.
Meanwhile Fiddlerontheroof is now indeed cut to 20s by Bet365.
1st (Win My Wings) and 3rd (Innisfree Lad) in the Eider. Luvely jubbly.
Excellent close 2nd by Eclair Surf, a stayer very much on the up, and (however unlikely) if somehow sneaking into the line up on 9 April, he'd have a good chance of being in the mix on Soft.
No doubt a lot to encourage supporters of the front 2 but, though both could go well for a long way on 9 April, their stat-profiles aren't strong enough by my reckoning to have them in the mix at the business end.
Good Boy Bobby disappoints and Phoenix Way departs early (nasty looking fall, hopefully OK) in the Coral Trophy, leaving them also short of the necessary.
Edit - Sure enough, Any Second Now cut to 12/1 fav, Escaria Ten cut to 14s
They know from last year he doesn’t get 4m and he’d likely have another 5lbs to carry this year.
He may shoulder topweight for the Irish this time but it’s been won by class horses with big weights before.
No chance at Aintree surely.
The right pedigree (18 of 67) [7 of last 8 GN winners ticked this box from 23% of fields]:
- Conflated (2)
- Minella Times (1 & 2)
- Tiger Roll (1 & 2)
- Delta Work (2)
- Any Second Now (3 - Gilgamboa, via DS4)
- Lostintranslation (1)
- Mount Ida (3 - Balthazar King, via DS6)
- Fiddlerontheroof (1 & 2)
- Longhouse Poet (2)
- Caribean Boy (1 & 2)
- Dingo Dollar (2)
- Cloth Cap (2 & 3 - Amberleigh House, via DS4)
- Freewheelin Dylan (2)
- Mighty Thunder (2)
- Agusta Gold (2)
- Phoenix Way (1)
- Snow Leopardess (1 & ?2)
- Death Duty (2)
(1) Group 1 winning at 10f+ flat progeny of damsire & DS2 or DS3(2) Wild Risk X-Factor or combo with Bold Ruler on damside
(3) GN form in family
The right 2nd season chaser (13) [6 of last 7 GN winners ticked this box from 13% of fields]:
- Run Wild Fred (1)
- Assemble (2)
- Mount Ida (1)
- Fiddlerontheroof (1)
- Longhouse Poet (2)
- Escaria Ten (1)
- Court Maid (1)
- Braeside (1)
- Enjoy D'Allen (1)
- Highland Hunter (1)
- Mighty Thunder (1)
- Snow Leopardess (1)
- Eclair Surf (1)
(1) Form at 26f+(2) Never tried at 26f+ but 100% win/near-miss in chases at 23.5f+ (as Minella Times was last year)
4 of the last 5 GN winners ticked both of these boxes (as did only 5 other runners [4.5% of fields]) and, as you can see, 5 entries do so this time: Mount Ida, Fiddlerontheroof, Longhouse Poet, Mighty Thunder and Snow Leopardess
Credentials have been explained above for Fiddlerontheroof, Longhouse Poet and Snow Leopardess. For the other 2:
Mount Ida - has 4th/5th place potential but will likely have too much weight (11.04) for her profile to finish <20L
Mighty Thunder - season's form poor and wind op expected. If successful without reaction under extreme-stress, he has the overall stat-profile to go close
14 horses scratched at the 1st forfeit stage today:
Tiger Roll
Assemble
Eklat De Rire
Off You Go
Sam Brown
El Presente
Kalooki
The Big Dog
Uisce Beatha
Elegant Escape
Mister Fogpatches
Brace Yourself
Eurobot
Double Shuffle