Where are the goals coming from?

oohaahmortimer

stoneroses19 said:

NapaAddick said:

Stig said:

NapaAddick said:

xG shows we are the most OVER-performing club in League One. This smells a lot like last season... quick start, but xG indicates we are not as good as we appear.....  then start giving up late goals, then fall apart. As pointed out by Addick Addict... if we need clean sheets to get 8 of our ten results this season, this bodes very badly for us. Especially if we rack up more injuries, which seems to be our MO.

There's one table that counts and that's the League table. It's not perfect, but it's not going to be wrong by eleven places.

It was wrong by 13 places last year. Go back and look at the thread about it last season. When we were top 6 it showed we were actually bottom 1/3. When we were midtable it showed we were relegation. In the end we got relegated.

I think a lot of people really don't understand what xG really... is. It's all about reversion to the mean. Which eventually happens. That's why xG is so popular and why it is calculated and all managers (or those above the manager)... track it. If it was not useful it would not be calculated. xG shows we are probably heading further down the table over time.

I’ll admit, as I have in the past, of not completely understanding xG all the time. But are you so confident of xG that you believe we’ll finish 17th or close to it this season?

If we continue to play the way we have recently then it becomes a possibility.... but there’s no way we will imo 

killerandflash

I agree with the principle of xG as a means of showing where a team "should" be

That version seems a bit extreme. Looking at the latest version from the xG_Data Twitter account it shows a far smaller drop in points. They had us shading a 1-1 draw yesterday

Chunes

NapaAddick said:

Stig said:

NapaAddick said:

xG shows we are the most OVER-performing club in League One. This smells a lot like last season... quick start, but xG indicates we are not as good as we appear.....  then start giving up late goals, then fall apart. As pointed out by Addick Addict... if we need clean sheets to get 8 of our ten results this season, this bodes very badly for us. Especially if we rack up more injuries, which seems to be our MO.

There's one table that counts and that's the League table. It's not perfect, but it's not going to be wrong by eleven places.

It was wrong by 13 places last year. Go back and look at the thread about it last season. When we were top 6 it showed we were actually bottom 1/3. When we were midtable it showed we were relegation. In the end we got relegated.

I think a lot of people really don't understand what xG really... is. It's all about reversion to the mean. Which eventually happens. That's why xG is so popular and why it is calculated and all managers (or those above the manager)... track it. If it was not useful it would not be calculated. xG shows we are probably heading further down the table over time.

Shouldn't it be balanced vs xG-against? 

Off_it

Let's face it, we could be 10 points clear at the top of the league and someone would still bemoan our lack of a 40 goal a season striker or produce an alternative table looking at fuck knows what that puts us in the relegation places. And people will lap it up.

Cardinal Sin

Washington 6 from 14 starts and 2 substitutions
Anneke 6 from 4 starts and 10 substitutions
Bogle 2 goals from 9 starts and 4 substitutions
Smyth 1 from 2 starts and 3 substitutions

None of them came close yesterday. Washington missed a sitter which may have 'bobbled.' Smyth also over-hit a through ball which should have seen Washington one-on-one with the keeper. 

Dazzler21

NapaAddick said:

xG shows we are the most OVER-performing club in League One. This smells a lot like last season... quick start, but xG indicates we are not as good as we appear.....  then start giving up late goals, then fall apart. As pointed out by Addick Addict... if we need clean sheets to get 8 of our ten results this season, this bodes very badly for us. Especially if we rack up more injuries, which seems to be our MO.

I have zero faith in xG 

stoneroses19

Cardinal Sin said:

Washington 6 from 14 starts and 2 substitutions
Anneke 6 from 4 starts and 10 substitutions
Bogle 2 goals from 9 starts and 4 substitutions
Smyth 1 from 2 starts and 3 substitutions

None of them came close yesterday. Washington missed a sitter which may have 'bobbled.' Smyth also over-hit a through ball which should have seen Washington one-on-one with the keeper. 

Washington and Aneke both on course for a finish of 15+ goals each in a 46-game season. Happy with that. 

ForeverAddickted

stoneroses19 said:

Cardinal Sin said:

Washington 6 from 14 starts and 2 substitutions
Anneke 6 from 4 starts and 10 substitutions
Bogle 2 goals from 9 starts and 4 substitutions
Smyth 1 from 2 starts and 3 substitutions

None of them came close yesterday. Washington missed a sitter which may have 'bobbled.' Smyth also over-hit a through ball which should have seen Washington one-on-one with the keeper. 

Washington and Aneke both on course for a finish of 15+ goals each in a 46-game season. Happy with that. 

Dont care how many goals each individual gets provided two things happen

(1) - Everyone continues to chip in
(2) - The defence start helping out down the other end

Oggy Red

Always a good feeling to score more goals .... and as Bowyer is always grumbling about, we certainly have had chances to score more.

But if only we weren't shipping the sheer quantity of sloppy goals conceded, then most games our goals scored would be sufficient for the 3 points.

Cardinal Sin

Washington 6 goals from 15 starts and 2 substitutions.
Anneke 6 goals from 4 starts and 10 substitutions.
Bogle 2 goals (*) from 10 starts and 4 substitutions.
Smyth 1 goal from 2 starts and 4 substitutions.

On current form I would suggest we would do well to get two of them to double figures.

golfaddick

Cardinal Sin said:

Washington 6 goals from 15 starts and 2 substitutions.
Anneke 6 goals from 4 starts and 10 substitutions.
Bogle 2 goals (*) from 10 starts and 4 substitutions.
Smyth 1 goal from 2 starts and 4 substitutions.

On current form I would suggest we would do well to get two of them to double figures.

I said as much from day 1. Aneke has surprised me & I think he may well get 12-15 this season & Washington 10-12. The other 2 are just pants as strikers. Ronnie "spice meister" Schwartz will hopefully get off to a flier but sadly he will have signed too late to save our season from being a damp squib. 

golfaddick

golfaddick said:

Cardinal Sin said:

First, I think the club have done a sterling job in reinforcing the squad. Given the League One salary cap and our lateness into it, we can have no complaints.

However, when I look at our striking options I struggle to see who will get the goals we need this season if we are to seriously challenge for promotion. 

Anneke, Bogle, Washington and Smyth are at their peak, aged between 23 and 28. All have league experience at a number of clubs but over the last four seasons, none have scored more than a total of 20 goals. In the circumstances, it might he asking a lot to expect two of them to get into double figures and even then, 15 or more would look like a big ask for any of them. 

So, who's going to be our top scorer and how many?

Not sure, but whoever it is I doubt they will get much more than 10 or 12. Washington is ahead with 2 atm, but he is not an out & out striker (his miss at Lincoln showing that he is not a natural no. 9). None of the others have any real goal scoring record, although out of all of them I'd say Bogle could end up our top goalscorer.

Our main problem is that we are just not attack minded enough. No one really wants to have a shot & all like to pass to someone else when in & around the box (even Aneke, who played in Pratley on Saturday instead of having a shot). We do not have a poacher or natural finisher. Does my head in that our academy can produce defender after defender (Jenkinson, Gomez, Konsa) but not a decent striker in years (Defoe......but he never played for the first team). I remember Liverpool fans wondering what would happen once Ian Rush retired, but he was replaced by Robbie Fowler & then he was replaced by Michael Owen !!)

I have said this so many times I sound like a broken record - until you get a 20 goal a season striker you ain't getting out of this league - unless you have 3 or 4 other players chipping in with 12-15 goals each, which is rare & not happening with our team or set up. And to counter some previous posters, both  Wycombe & Coventry only played 34 games last season.

In all our previous promotions going back to 1998, our leading goalscorer had scored 20 goals. (Mendonca, Hunt, BWP, Taylor) 

My first post on this thread, 8 posts in. As I said, nothing had changed to make me change my mind......apart from Bogle that is (don't know what I was thinking.....or smoking 😄).

Briston_Addick

"Where are the goals coming from?"

The oppo, at the moment.

🙁

LenGlover

Lot of expectation re Schwartz I feel. Does anyone know anything about him? Is Ronnie Simon and Schwartz Church in Danish? 

Addick Addict

The real irony of this thread is that we have just 3 goals less than the highest scoring club in League 1 and only 2 less than the top club, Lincoln, who have also played one game more than us. But we have conceded more goals than any of the top 11. 

So, perhaps, the root of the problem is the fact that we haven't kept a clean sheet in 10 of our last 11 games. 

Just hope LB isn't reading this or we might become even more defensive!

golfaddick

Addick Addict said:

The real irony of this thread is that we have just 3 goals less than the highest scoring club in League 1 and only 2 less than the top club, Lincoln, who have also played one game more than us. But we have conceded more goals than any of the top 11. 

So, perhaps, the root of the problem is the fact that we haven't kept a clean sheet in 10 of our last 11 games. 

Just hope LB isn't reading this or we might become even more defensive!

I still go by the adage that it's best to score more goals than your opponents rather than trying to win games by not letting them score at all. If they score 2 then you need to score 3. As our defence is nowhere near as solid as it was 2 months ago then its probably best not to try and win 1-0 or 2-1. The last 4 games we have let in 2 goals, so it seems logical that we need to score at least 3 to win. Once we have the proper centre halves back then you might be able to go back to what we were doing back in October. Until then I would suggest a different mindset & different tactics.......as the current one certainly ain't working !!

Addick Addict

golfaddick said:

Addick Addict said:

The real irony of this thread is that we have just 3 goals less than the highest scoring club in League 1 and only 2 less than the top club, Lincoln, who have also played one game more than us. But we have conceded more goals than any of the top 11. 

So, perhaps, the root of the problem is the fact that we haven't kept a clean sheet in 10 of our last 11 games. 

Just hope LB isn't reading this or we might become even more defensive!

I still go by the adage that it's best to score more goals than your opponents rather than trying to win games by not letting them score at all. If they score 2 then you need to score 3. As our defence is nowhere near as solid as it was 2 months ago then its probably best not to try and win 1-0 or 2-1. The last 4 games we have let in 2 goals, so it seems logical that we need to score at least 3 to win. Once we have the proper centre halves back then you might be able to go back to what we were doing back in October. Until then I would suggest a different mindset & different tactics.......as the current one certainly ain't working !!

I'm certainly not disagreeing with you regarding the somewhat negative tactics we have been employing. I've said for a long time that we should be playing to our strengths and not our weaknesses. 

In that respect the question I would ask is how many of the top half a dozen teams would the likes of Williams, Aneke and Maddison get into? Quite a few of them I suspect. But would Gunter and Pratley make it as CBs? Or Matthews as a LB and Maatsen on the other side? 

To me it is LB's over complicating of things that is causing us issues at the back and up top. Let's not forget that when LB was forced into playing Williams, Maddison and Aneke in the same side we won the second half against Wimbledon, following those changes, 4-0. Wimbledon did not know what hit them.

Teams will always be able to stop the obvious and pedestrian. And that is what they have been doing. Even the ones at the bottom of the table.

Cardinal Sin

golfaddick said:

Cardinal Sin said:

Washington 6 goals from 15 starts and 2 substitutions.
Anneke 6 goals from 4 starts and 10 substitutions.
Bogle 2 goals (*) from 10 starts and 4 substitutions.
Smyth 1 goal from 2 starts and 4 substitutions.

On current form I would suggest we would do well to get two of them to double figures.

I said as much from day 1. Aneke has surprised me & I think he may well get 12-15 this season & Washington 10-12. The other 2 are just pants as strikers. Ronnie "spice meister" Schwartz will hopefully get off to a flier but sadly he will have signed too late to save our season from being a damp squib. 

These goal tallies are far from impressive or representative from the strikers of a side sixth at New Year. Given our performances and results in the last ten games, I would suggest we are on a downward trajectory and that we may struggle to score goals in the coming weeks. Double-figures for Anneke and Washington still look a task to me. Bogle needs to concentrate on making appearances as he's plainly not going to add to his tally of one and half.

Callumcafc

https://twitter.com/blades_analytic/status/1348437072940593152?s=21

EFL League One Top 20 Chance Creators (total amounts)

Maybe a better question to ask... where are the assists coming from?

Scoham

That doesn’t surprise me given how often Bowyer changes the team. I wonder how often Maddison was in the top 20 during his time at Posh?

blackpool72

Scoham said:

That doesn’t surprise me given how often Bowyer changes the team. I wonder how often Maddison was in the top 20 during his time at Posh?

Nearly always in the top six.
That's because he had a manager that believed in him and played to his strengths. 

Cardinal Sin

Too pissed off to update this after Friday.

Washington 6 goals from 16 starts and 2 substitutions.
Anneke 6 goals from 4 starts and 11 substitutions.
Bogle 2 goals (*) from 10 starts and 4 substitutions.
Smyth 1 goal from 3 starts and 4 substitutions

Will Ronnie Schwartz be our next striker to score?

golfaddick

Callumcafc said:

https://twitter.com/blades_analytic/status/1348437072940593152?s=21

EFL League One Top 20 Chance Creators (total amounts)

Maybe a better question to ask... where are the assists coming from?

Exactly. We don't have wingers who can take on a defender, go past him & whip in a cross. Most of our crosses come diagonally from roughly level of the box. Easy to defend. We also don't have creative midfielders (well we do but they are usually on the bench & now injured) who can put a decent through ball for someone to run onto (Vardy would be wasted in our team). And our strikers don't really create anything themselves - which is why I liked the look of Millar on Friday night as we've been crying out for someone to run at the defence, cut in & take a shot.

Apart from that we are a goal machine....

Dazzler21

Rank	Name	AssistsA	GoalsGL	PlayedP	Chances Created	Chances per 90	Total Passes	Passes Complete	Passes Incomplete	Pass Accuracy
1	Paul Smyth	2	1	11	2	0.18	74	48	26	65%
1	Albie Morgan	2	1	13	9	0.69	246	184	62	75%
1	Andrew Shinnie	2	1	10	8	0.80	375	301	74	80%
1	Chris Gunter	2	1	16	9	0.56	694	496	198	71%
1	Ian Maatsen	2	0	15	15	1.00	492	330	162	67%
6	Chuks Aneke	1	7	18	11	0.61	215	126	89	59%
6	Conor Washington	1	6	21	9	0.43	252	194	58	77%
6	Omar Bogle	1	2	15	3	0.20	155	109	46	70%
6	Ben Purrington	1	2	18	2	0.11	364	254	110	70%
6	Jake Forster-Caskey	1	2	15	11	0.73	589	459	130	78%
6	Alfie Doughty	1	1	9	11	1.22	226	156	70	69%
6	Darren Pratley	1	1	21	3	0.14	827	675	152	82%
6	Jason PearcePearce	1	0	6	1	0.17	342	263	79	77%
6	Adedeji Oshilaja	1	0	8	2	0.25	349	272	77	78%
6	Adam Matthews	1	0	11	2	0.18	312	261	51	84%
6	Alex Gilbey	1	0	13	3	0.23	265	208	57	78%

Addick Addict

I'm sure Golfie will hate me for pointing this out but we are now the top scorers in League 1. It's at the other end that we have problems now!

Cafc43v3r

blackpool72 said:

Scoham said:

That doesn’t surprise me given how often Bowyer changes the team. I wonder how often Maddison was in the top 20 during his time at Posh?

Nearly always in the top six.
That's because he had a manager that believed in him and played to his strengths. 

Peterborough obviously weren't promoted with MM in their team.

Would he have got in any of the teams that did get promoted in that time?  Serious question.

Of course I would have taken him over Reeves or Marshell in 18/19 but I don't think he would have got in your best team that season.

I also doubt he would have got in Luton or Barnsley's best 11 either.   I don't think "league 1 player of the decade" is as much of a compliment as people think. 

Cardinal Sin

Really pleased to say that thing are looking up. Chuks Anneke starting the match last night and getting a brace but deserving a hat-trick. Ronnie Schwartz coming on and scoring a superb equaliser that showed just what we had seen from his videos - quality finishing. The pair of them also looked like a striking partnership and they will be itching to get going. If it can galvanise the midfield to create opportunities for them, we might not spend so much time passing the ball nervously around our back five. As we approach the half-way mark in terms of games, 15 from Chuks and 10 from Scwartz would represent some form of success I think.

Anneke 8 goals from 5 starts and 11 substitutions.
Washington 6 goals from 16 starts and 3 substitutions.
Bogle 2 goals from 10 starts and 4 substitutions.
Smyth 1 goal from 4 starts and 4 substitutions
Ronnie Schwartz 1 goal from 0 starts and two substitutions

Redhenry

who would've thought play two up top...

charltonbob

Redhenry said:

who would've thought play two up top...

Don't worry it'll never catch on

Cardinal Sin

To be fair, I think the reversion to 4-4-2 was what helped us get back into the match on Tuesday. That and the fact that with Schwartz we now have the personnel to play two strikers in tandem.