Accrington, Sunderland, Doncaster lost Hull, Lincoln drew Portsmouth, Peterborough, Oxford won
Ipswich lost too, another game used up by all our rivals and we are 2 points clear in the playoffs and 6 points off automatics. Given our terrible run it shows you what a decent run could do.
Bowyer will be delighted to have the week off. Apart from anything else, outdoors training will be impossible at the moment
He mentioned not being able to train the other week due to the weather but isn't there a perfectly usable 3G pitch at the training ground , I'm sure there is or is it liable to cause injuries or something , I can't work out why we wouldn't use it
Even 3g pitches can freeze, especially if it's rained a fair bit before the frost comes in.
Only 6 behind Hull really isn’t as bad as I thought.
A good run and we can definitely do this.
No way would Hull be top 2 if all the teams had played 27 though. We're a long way behind Lincoln and Doncaster, we'd need one heck of a run to finish top 2, probably about 14 wins from 19 minimum, it's not going to happen.
Looking at the average points required to finish in the top two over the last ten years, we would need 47 out of a possible 57 to get there, though with things looking tight at the moment and no team looking head and shoulders better than the rest, we might get away with 42 more points and go straight up with 85. The lowest 2nd place points tally in those ten years was 83*, the highest was 96!
To get into the play-offs, we would need about 31 more points from our last 19 games, though might sneak in with 5 less if 2-3 other teams go on a really good run. The lowest 6th place points tally in those ten years was 69, and the highest 74*
*Excluding the 19/20 season, which was decided on ppg.
A tall order for the automatics, even now. Lose to Gillingham, and the past 30 mins I've spent on this will have been a complete waste of time!
Only 6 behind Hull really isn’t as bad as I thought.
A good run and we can definitely do this.
Effectively 7 points given our much worse goal difference.
But with a lot of the top sides playing each other, some sides dropping points (Hull 1 win in 4, Sunderland 3 wins in 10, Accrington 2 wins in 7), plus our own favourable run of fixtures, it's a great chance for us to consolidate a play off spot.
I'm confident that in a months time even with most other sides catching up their games in hand, we'll be well in there.
Only 6 behind Hull really isn’t as bad as I thought.
A good run and we can definitely do this.
No way would Hull be top 2 if all the teams had played 27 though. We're a long way behind Lincoln and Doncaster, we'd need one heck of a run to finish top 2, probably about 14 wins from 19 minimum, it's not going to happen.
We need a minimum of 10 points from the next twelve to even be looking at a chance of going up automatically.
This! Anything less and it’s the playoffs, at best. Frankly, if we can’t beat the quality of Gillingham, Fleetwood, Burton and Blackpool, we won’t deserve the auto places anyway.
Teams get dismissed halfway to bottom in the Leagues as though they have no quality is a misplaced terminology. Teams at the bottom are there for a reason sure but, they do have purple patches when their form upturns and do beat top sides.
Shrewsbury for instance, bottom four for a while, yet they have beaten Sunderland, Peterborough, Lincoln & Doncaster in their last 10 games. Currently 17th below Blackpool, Fleetwood & Gillingham.
Blackpool have beaten Hull & Portsmouth in their last 10.
Fleetwood beat Doncaster and we know they are capable and have beaten other top teams,
Even Burton, yep remember them bottom beat Hull & Gillingham their last 2 games.
In the next five/six game weeks there is at least one fixture where sides up the top end are playing each other.....
This weekend:
Lincoln v Accrington Sunderland v Donny
Following Tuesday:
Donny v Accrington
Following:
Donny v Hull Charlton v Fleetwood Oxford v Ipswich
Following Tuesday:
Hull v Ipswich
Yes we do need a very positive run of results, granted, but other teams will start taking points from each other! And as much as everyone jokes and whittles about players coming back...I really do think we are only going to get stronger!
Only 6 behind Hull really isn’t as bad as I thought.
A good run and we can definitely do this.
No way would Hull be top 2 if all the teams had played 27 though. We're a long way behind Lincoln and Doncaster, we'd need one heck of a run to finish top 2, probably about 14 wins from 19 minimum, it's not going to happen.
That’s why we were 100-1 to win the league last week. One win later and those odds have fallen to 40-1. We couldn’t, could we..........?
Only 6 behind Hull really isn’t as bad as I thought.
A good run and we can definitely do this.
No way would Hull be top 2 if all the teams had played 27 though. We're a long way behind Lincoln and Doncaster, we'd need one heck of a run to finish top 2, probably about 14 wins from 19 minimum, it's not going to happen.
It’s not really a long way though is it?
I think it is yes. 9 points off Lincoln who have a game in hand and a much better GD. 5 points off Doncaster who have three games in hand. Yes games in hand don't mean they will necessarily get the points in the bag, but even if you guess at 4 points in those three games that still leaves us roughly 9 points off both the top 2. So to be honest I don't know how you can say otherwise.
At this stage of the season, points in the bag are worth more than games in hand. Take Carlisle in League 2 for example - they are 6 points off the top with 5 games in hand but still have 23 games to play!
That said, we have neither points in the bag nor games in hand. We've been on a run of picking up just 20 points from our last 17 games with just 5 wins from those matches; there aren't just 5 clubs above us with games in hand but there are the likes of Oxford who have been in far better form in winning 8 of their last 9, with two new signings scoring last night, just below us too.
The table has a bit of a feel of the 2018/19 season and if we go on a good run we will make the play offs. For automatic promotion we will need a minimum of 88 points as at least two from the five above us will achieve at least that. That's 45 points from 57 (or 14 wins and 3 draws from 19 games) for us when we've only achieved 43 out of 81 all season to date. Look at our run in too - our final 9 games are all against teams in the top 12. It's no use saying "if we beat Lincoln, if we beat Hull etc etc" because "if" isn't in the equation. Draws against those sides won't be enough either.
We are also assuming that we aren't going to sustain our usual number of injuries or suspensions along the way. The important thing is to keep the momentum going so that if and when we make the play offs we are the ones in form.
Comments
Just need to put a run together ourselves
Still in the play offs. That's alright.
To get into the play-offs, we would need about 31 more points from our last 19 games, though might sneak in with 5 less if 2-3 other teams go on a really good run. The lowest 6th place points tally in those ten years was 69, and the highest 74*
*Excluding the 19/20 season, which was decided on ppg.
A tall order for the automatics, even now. Lose to Gillingham, and the past 30 mins I've spent on this will have been a complete waste of time!
But with a lot of the top sides playing each other, some sides dropping points (Hull 1 win in 4, Sunderland 3 wins in 10, Accrington 2 wins in 7), plus our own favourable run of fixtures, it's a great chance for us to consolidate a play off spot.
I'm confident that in a months time even with most other sides catching up their games in hand, we'll be well in there.
This weekend:
Lincoln v Accrington
Sunderland v Donny
Following Tuesday:
Donny v Accrington
Following:
Donny v Hull
Charlton v Fleetwood
Oxford v Ipswich
Following Tuesday:
Hull v Ipswich
Yes we do need a very positive run of results, granted, but other teams will start taking points from each other! And as much as everyone jokes and whittles about players coming back...I really do think we are only going to get stronger!
That said, we have neither points in the bag nor games in hand. We've been on a run of picking up just 20 points from our last 17 games with just 5 wins from those matches; there aren't just 5 clubs above us with games in hand but there are the likes of Oxford who have been in far better form in winning 8 of their last 9, with two new signings scoring last night, just below us too.
The table has a bit of a feel of the 2018/19 season and if we go on a good run we will make the play offs. For automatic promotion we will need a minimum of 88 points as at least two from the five above us will achieve at least that. That's 45 points from 57 (or 14 wins and 3 draws from 19 games) for us when we've only achieved 43 out of 81 all season to date. Look at our run in too - our final 9 games are all against teams in the top 12. It's no use saying "if we beat Lincoln, if we beat Hull etc etc" because "if" isn't in the equation. Draws against those sides won't be enough either.
We are also assuming that we aren't going to sustain our usual number of injuries or suspensions along the way. The important thing is to keep the momentum going so that if and when we make the play offs we are the ones in form.