The next six games will be vital to any hopes we might have. Two winnables followed by four of our toughest five remaining fixtures.
Fleetwood (H) Forest Green (A) Derby (A) Sheff W (H) Peterboro (A) Plymouth (A)
Once we get through February, we’ll have played all but three of the current top half home and away - Ipswich, Wycombe and Shrewsbury the last three to face.
Ten points or better from those fixtures and we are in with a chance with 12 games left in the season.
Six points or fewer and that’s the final nail in this season’s coffin. It’ll be a very long slog to get through until May watching another mid table finish in this league.
this table is more important than the graph. Shows which results we'd have to tick off to get to the average amount needed for top six (which I think will be not enough this year anyway)
I look at the points we should aim for which may or may not be enough. 75 is the target I have in my head as it would have been enough in all but the Covid affected season. So bearing that total in mind, I am not so bothered about the other teams.
To reach 75 points we are looking at just over 2 points a game. If we win our next two, we will be on 2 points a game exactly. It is highly unlikely and draws are pretty much like defeats so basically we need to win two out of three from now on in. It is a good point that if we are still in that ball park after our tough run of games, it could become interesting but we shouldn't expect it.
I look at the points we should aim for which may or may not be enough. 75 is the target I have in my head as it would have been enough in all but the Covid affected season. So bearing that total in mind, I am not so bothered about the other teams.
To reach 75 points we are looking at just over 2 points a game. If we win our next two, we will be on 2 points a game exactly. It is highly unlikely and draws are pretty much like defeats so basically we need to win two out of three from now on in. It is a good point that if we are still in that ball park after our tough run of games, it could become interesting but we shouldn't expect it.
Not sure it really works like that. The six clubs above us also have targets, and it’s very unlikely that not one of them will meet them, especially as they all have a points advantage over us.
Barnsley, for example, have 47pts to our 37, so only need 28pts to get to 75 and they have a game in hand over us. They require just 1.47pts a game.
We need 38 points. And then there’s goal difference. Theirs is currently +10 and ours is +4, so we might need 39 points. That’s 2.17pts a game. And we have a lot of tough fixture coming up. Yes, it’s mathematically possible which is why you can get 20/1 with the bookies. But the reason I won’t be sticking a quid on is that there are better teams in the six places above us, and I don’t see all of them collapsing.
Barnsley nosedive, we win the next two, the pack above us get draws/lose and we are on our way. I’m a glass half full guy. Will we get in the play offs? Nope.
we've a good chance of winning the next two making us look very good to escape relegation but the subsequent games will kill any lingering hope of play offs. Effectively we're going to have a long pre season.
Thanks to the frozen pitch fiasco, from mid February we have horrendous set of 4 games. With our points deficit we probably need to win 3 out of the Derby, Wednesday, Plymouth and Posh games.
Win all 4 then some of the teams above us will be nervously looking over their shoulders. Only get say 4 or 5 points out of 12, then we can start playing the kids...
I look at the points we should aim for which may or may not be enough. 75 is the target I have in my head as it would have been enough in all but the Covid affected season. So bearing that total in mind, I am not so bothered about the other teams.
To reach 75 points we are looking at just over 2 points a game. If we win our next two, we will be on 2 points a game exactly. It is highly unlikely and draws are pretty much like defeats so basically we need to win two out of three from now on in. It is a good point that if we are still in that ball park after our tough run of games, it could become interesting but we shouldn't expect it.
Not sure it really works like that. The six clubs above us also have targets, and it’s very unlikely that not one of them will meet them, especially as they all have a points advantage over us.
Barnsley, for example, have 47pts to our 37, so only need 28pts to get to 75 and they have a game in hand over us. They require just 1.47pts a game.
We need 38 points. And then there’s goal difference. Theirs is currently +10 and ours is +4, so we might need 39 points. That’s 2.17pts a game. And we have a lot of tough fixture coming up. Yes, it’s mathematically possible which is why you can get 20/1 with the bookies. But the reason I won’t be sticking a quid on is that there are better teams in the six places above us, and I don’t see all of them collapsing.
It's not even just about us and how we do.
These teams still have to play each other - both teams can't win and points will be dropped. They no doubt also still have to play top 5 teams.
The mid-table is tight enough that any mid-table team that can string a run together can make a late charge for the playoffs - it's been done often enough in the past few seasons and a couple of those teams even promoted.
That doesn't mean to say that we will do that - only that it's do-able.
Realistically there's only 6th place up for grabs and right now it seems 6 other teams have a better chance - but we've already beaten 3 of them in our last 5 games.
Bowyer's team of 2019 were struggling at this time of the season, but from March put together a fabulous 12 match run to clinch a playoff spot. That's the measure of the task before us, possible but unlikely.
I'm with Dean Holdsworth though ....... all the while 6th position is still there to play for, then play for it. More fun that just giving up.
One game at a time - and then see where it takes us.
I look at the points we should aim for which may or may not be enough. 75 is the target I have in my head as it would have been enough in all but the Covid affected season. So bearing that total in mind, I am not so bothered about the other teams.
To reach 75 points we are looking at just over 2 points a game. If we win our next two, we will be on 2 points a game exactly. It is highly unlikely and draws are pretty much like defeats so basically we need to win two out of three from now on in. It is a good point that if we are still in that ball park after our tough run of games, it could become interesting but we shouldn't expect it.
Not sure it really works like that. The six clubs above us also have targets, and it’s very unlikely that not one of them will meet them, especially as they all have a points advantage over us.
Barnsley, for example, have 47pts to our 37, so only need 28pts to get to 75 and they have a game in hand over us. They require just 1.47pts a game.
We need 38 points. And then there’s goal difference. Theirs is currently +10 and ours is +4, so we might need 39 points. That’s 2.17pts a game. And we have a lot of tough fixture coming up. Yes, it’s mathematically possible which is why you can get 20/1 with the bookies. But the reason I won’t be sticking a quid on is that there are better teams in the six places above us, and I don’t see all of them collapsing.
Well it does to a degree as 75 points seems to always get you in the top six. Except of course when Covid ended the season prematurely and the projected points which were the final points were unrealistically high. That tells us that one or two teams riding high generally hit a poor run.
It is far better to set yourself a points total and like I said, find me a season in the last 10 years apart from the covid one, where that didn't get you in the play offs. It is important to note that us getting 75 points is extremely challenging and unlikely.
I look at the points we should aim for which may or may not be enough. 75 is the target I have in my head as it would have been enough in all but the Covid affected season. So bearing that total in mind, I am not so bothered about the other teams.
To reach 75 points we are looking at just over 2 points a game. If we win our next two, we will be on 2 points a game exactly. It is highly unlikely and draws are pretty much like defeats so basically we need to win two out of three from now on in. It is a good point that if we are still in that ball park after our tough run of games, it could become interesting but we shouldn't expect it.
Not sure it really works like that. The six clubs above us also have targets, and it’s very unlikely that not one of them will meet them, especially as they all have a points advantage over us.
Barnsley, for example, have 47pts to our 37, so only need 28pts to get to 75 and they have a game in hand over us. They require just 1.47pts a game.
We need 38 points. And then there’s goal difference. Theirs is currently +10 and ours is +4, so we might need 39 points. That’s 2.17pts a game. And we have a lot of tough fixture coming up. Yes, it’s mathematically possible which is why you can get 20/1 with the bookies. But the reason I won’t be sticking a quid on is that there are better teams in the six places above us, and I don’t see all of them collapsing.
Well it does to a degree as 75 points seems to always get you in the top six. Except of course when Covid ended the season prematurely and the projected points which were the final points were unrealistically high. That tells us that one or two teams riding high generally hit a poor run.
It is far better to set yourself a points total and like I said, find me a season in the last 10 years apart from the covid one, where that didn't get you in the play offs. It is important to note that us getting 75 points is extremely challenging and unlikely.
Teams go through weird spells of form all the time, especially in the top six when the pressure starts to tell.
Look at Ipswich who have managed only one win from their last 6 games. They should have enough to get 20 more points from their last 17 games but you never know.
Unless we go on a ten game winning streak I think it's highly unlikely, just too many teams between us and the play offs for them all to fall away and us over take them.
I think we'll finish broadly where we are, maybe 9th/10th at a push. We may only be 10 points from 6th (although 6th have a game in hand) sitting in 12th but also there are 4 teams below us who can catch us in 1 game.
Our form in the games since the New Year came in is averaging just over 2 points a game. Okay it's only 5 games.
But if we'd averaged that points return from the beginning of the season, we'd be top 3 right now.
I don't believe saying that we need 75 points or whatever means anything right now. The only thing is to focus on 1 game at a time .... and see where it take us.
It doesn't mean anything as it is too far away but it is better than assuming this team is going to get X and that team Y. It is highly unlikely but possible and a poor run will make it impossible pretty quickly. If say we beat Fleetwood on Saturday, that will mean that the three games starting from Bolton averaged 2 points a game. It sort of fixes the damage the Bolton defeat did, but you are right, we do have to look at keeping up with the required rate in small chunks.
Holden has done a great job so far for me, but if you are going to put a 2 points a game long run together you need to be winning most games comfortably. In all fairness, if you look at the stats of the Exeter game, more often than not they point to a draw. You may win one but the next game like that may be a draw or indeed a defeat, so we probably need to improve by another 5 per cent or so.
It is still early in terms of looking at whether the team has more to come or Holden has us near our full potential. Credit to him if he does but that won't get us near IMO.
I look at the points we should aim for which may or may not be enough. 75 is the target I have in my head as it would have been enough in all but the Covid affected season. So bearing that total in mind, I am not so bothered about the other teams.
To reach 75 points we are looking at just over 2 points a game. If we win our next two, we will be on 2 points a game exactly. It is highly unlikely and draws are pretty much like defeats so basically we need to win two out of three from now on in. It is a good point that if we are still in that ball park after our tough run of games, it could become interesting but we shouldn't expect it.
Not sure it really works like that. The six clubs above us also have targets, and it’s very unlikely that not one of them will meet them, especially as they all have a points advantage over us.
Barnsley, for example, have 47pts to our 37, so only need 28pts to get to 75 and they have a game in hand over us. They require just 1.47pts a game.
We need 38 points. And then there’s goal difference. Theirs is currently +10 and ours is +4, so we might need 39 points. That’s 2.17pts a game. And we have a lot of tough fixture coming up. Yes, it’s mathematically possible which is why you can get 20/1 with the bookies. But the reason I won’t be sticking a quid on is that there are better teams in the six places above us, and I don’t see all of them collapsing.
It's not even just about us and how we do.
These teams still have to play each other - both teams can't win and points will be dropped. They no doubt also still have to play top 5 teams.
The mid-table is tight enough that any mid-table team that can string a run together can make a late charge for the playoffs - it's been done often enough in the past few seasons and a couple of those teams even promoted.
That doesn't mean to say that we will do that - only that it's do-able.
Realistically there's only 6th place up for grabs and right now it seems 6 other teams have a better chance - but we've already beaten 3 of them in our last 5 games.
Bowyer's team of 2019 were struggling at this time of the season, but from March put together a fabulous 12 match run to clinch a playoff spot. That's the measure of the task before us, possible but unlikely.
I'm with Dean Holdsworth though ....... all the while 6th position is still there to play for, then play for it. More fun that just giving up.
One game at a time - and then see where it takes us.
Dean Holdsworth....? Wait what. Have we a new manager already ?
Comments
Fleetwood (H)
Forest Green (A)
Derby (A)
Sheff W (H)
Peterboro (A)
Plymouth (A)
Once we get through February, we’ll have played all but three of the current top half home and away - Ipswich, Wycombe and Shrewsbury the last three to face.
Ten points or better from those fixtures and we are in with a chance with 12 games left in the season.
Six points or fewer and that’s the final nail in this season’s coffin. It’ll be a very long slog to get through until May watching another mid table finish in this league.
Which quite obviously we won't.
The league is really starting to fragment now.
The top 2 are 6 points clear
Two points separate the next 3
Then there is a gap.
3 points separate the next 4
Then there is a 6 point gap before 4 points separates 7 sides, including us. Before another 5 point gap then places 17-23 is only 4 points.
Plymouth and Wednesday will go up.
Ipswich, Bolton and Derby will be in the play offs.
With one of Barnsley, Peterborough, Wycombe or Shewsbury.
Portsmouth, Exeter, US, Bristol Rovers, Port Vale, Oxford and Lincoln will be mid table.
3 of the rest will join Forest Green in league 2 next season.
I would be surprised if anyone finishes outside of the group they are currently in to be honest.
That was a real 6 pointer and a game we had to win.
We lost.
this table is more important than the graph. Shows which results we'd have to tick off to get to the average amount needed for top six (which I think will be not enough this year anyway)
I wonder if we had won that if we would have behaved differently in the transfer market?
To reach 75 points we are looking at just over 2 points a game. If we win our next two, we will be on 2 points a game exactly. It is highly unlikely and draws are pretty much like defeats so basically we need to win two out of three from now on in. It is a good point that if we are still in that ball park after our tough run of games, it could become interesting but we shouldn't expect it.
Yes, it’s mathematically possible which is why you can get 20/1 with the bookies. But the reason I won’t be sticking a quid on is that there are better teams in the six places above us, and I don’t see all of them collapsing.
Win all 4 then some of the teams above us will be nervously looking over their shoulders. Only get say 4 or 5 points out of 12, then we can start playing the kids...
These teams still have to play each other - both teams can't win and points will be dropped.
They no doubt also still have to play top 5 teams.
The mid-table is tight enough that any mid-table team that can string a run together can make a late charge for the playoffs - it's been done often enough in the past few seasons and a couple of those teams even promoted.
That doesn't mean to say that we will do that - only that it's do-able.
Realistically there's only 6th place up for grabs and right now it seems 6 other teams have a better chance - but we've already beaten 3 of them in our last 5 games.
Bowyer's team of 2019 were struggling at this time of the season, but from March put together a fabulous 12 match run to clinch a playoff spot.
That's the measure of the task before us, possible but unlikely.
I'm with Dean Holdsworth though ....... all the while 6th position is still there to play for, then play for it.
More fun that just giving up.
One game at a time - and then see where it takes us.
It is far better to set yourself a points total and like I said, find me a season in the last 10 years apart from the covid one, where that didn't get you in the play offs. It is important to note that us getting 75 points is extremely challenging and unlikely.
I'm hoping that that has the same effect as when I said 'absolutely no way this finishes 2-1' after 35 minutes on Saturday.
Look at Ipswich who have managed only one win from their last 6 games. They should have enough to get 20 more points from their last 17 games but you never know.
I think we'll finish broadly where we are, maybe 9th/10th at a push. We may only be 10 points from 6th (although 6th have a game in hand) sitting in 12th but also there are 4 teams below us who can catch us in 1 game.
Okay it's only 5 games.
But if we'd averaged that points return from the beginning of the season, we'd be top 3 right now.
I don't believe saying that we need 75 points or whatever means anything right now.
The only thing is to focus on 1 game at a time .... and see where it take us.
Holden has done a great job so far for me, but if you are going to put a 2 points a game long run together you need to be winning most games comfortably. In all fairness, if you look at the stats of the Exeter game, more often than not they point to a draw. You may win one but the next game like that may be a draw or indeed a defeat, so we probably need to improve by another 5 per cent or so.
It is still early in terms of looking at whether the team has more to come or Holden has us near our full potential. Credit to him if he does but that won't get us near IMO.
8% - playoffs
2% - relegation
Although we are right in the middle of the table, our current form makes the top 6 more likely than the bottom 4