The vote of no confidence will happen when enough Tory MPs indicate it is time. Forget the DUP - they won't vote against the government in such a vote. There are a few ready to go, but they will only act if events lead us towards a Brexit they can't accept. May is playing a dangerous game trying to force people opposed to her vote into a corner,
When will Labour call for that vote of no confidence? It will be remarkable if they don’t given the situation but I’m not holding my breath. I think the next big move will be 48 letters dropping onto the 1922 committees desk. The hard brexiters can’t risk May getting something out of Brussels and getting her deal through.
The short answer is probably "after she loses the vote".
I think Labour's position is that they don't want to fail to topple her by calling the vote of confidence before she has lost the vote. (sorry for the double-triple negatives!) - MPs would be reluctant to decapitate the Government before putting the deal to the vote.
So, my guess is that they are waiting for the newly renegotiated deal (that both sides of the deal said could not be renegotiated) to be brought back and then voted down.
As for my guess as to "when"? Well, I have it on good authority that Theresa May will complete this before Christmas. But she hasn't yet decided how much Christmas is going to be delayed yet.
People may criticise this, but it makes sense. Why do it and lose it. Timing is everything here.
I agree the time is everything, but it’s running out. Messing around with votes of no confidence doesn’t move the situation on at all.
The prime minister is defeated and disgraced, Labour should be working with the opposition parties and Remainer Tories to come up with a solution that would command a majority in the house - be that Norway or second referendum. They should also be introducing legislation which would revoke Article 50 to give us time to do this.
Labour’s hesitation isn’t a master plan, it’s a sign that they are just as divided as the Tory party with a leader that wants something different to the majority of his MPs (again, like the Tory party).
When will Labour call for that vote of no confidence? It will be remarkable if they don’t given the situation but I’m not holding my breath. I think the next big move will be 48 letters dropping onto the 1922 committees desk. The hard brexiters can’t risk May getting something out of Brussels and getting her deal through.
The short answer is probably "after she loses the vote".
I think Labour's position is that they don't want to fail to topple her by calling the vote of confidence before she has lost the vote. (sorry for the double-triple negatives!) - MPs would be reluctant to decapitate the Government before putting the deal to the vote.
So, my guess is that they are waiting for the newly renegotiated deal (that both sides of the deal said could not be renegotiated) to be brought back and then voted down.
As for my guess as to "when"? Well, I have it on good authority that Theresa May will complete this before Christmas. But she hasn't yet decided how much Christmas is going to be delayed yet.
People may criticise this, but it makes sense. Why do it and lose it. Timing is everything here.
I agree the time is everything, but it’s running out. Messing around with votes of no confidence doesn’t move the situation on at all.
The prime minister is defeated and disgraced, Labour should be working with the opposition parties and Remainer Tories to come up with a solution that would command a majority in the house - be that Norway or second referendum. They should also be introducing legislation which would revoke Article 50 to give us time to do this.
Labour’s hesitation isn’t a master plan, it’s a sign that they are just as divided as the Tory party with a leader that wants something different to the majority of his MPs (again, like the Tory party).
They are working with other parties - I can assure you of that. What people need to accept is that the house won't allow a hard Brexit. But we are not looking at natural allies here and we have to let things reach the brink for something to happen.
When will Labour call for that vote of no confidence? It will be remarkable if they don’t given the situation but I’m not holding my breath. I think the next big move will be 48 letters dropping onto the 1922 committees desk. The hard brexiters can’t risk May getting something out of Brussels and getting her deal through.
The short answer is probably "after she loses the vote".
I think Labour's position is that they don't want to fail to topple her by calling the vote of confidence before she has lost the vote. (sorry for the double-triple negatives!) - MPs would be reluctant to decapitate the Government before putting the deal to the vote.
So, my guess is that they are waiting for the newly renegotiated deal (that both sides of the deal said could not be renegotiated) to be brought back and then voted down.
As for my guess as to "when"? Well, I have it on good authority that Theresa May will complete this before Christmas. But she hasn't yet decided how much Christmas is going to be delayed yet.
People may criticise this, but it makes sense. Why do it and lose it. Timing is everything here.
I agree the time is everything, but it’s running out. Messing around with votes of no confidence doesn’t move the situation on at all.
The prime minister is defeated and disgraced, Labour should be working with the opposition parties and Remainer Tories to come up with a solution that would command a majority in the house - be that Norway or second referendum. They should also be introducing legislation which would revoke Article 50 to give us time to do this.
Labour’s hesitation isn’t a master plan, it’s a sign that they are just as divided as the Tory party with a leader that wants something different to the majority of his MPs (again, like the Tory party).
They are working with other parties - I can assure you of that.
You keep saying this, are you somehow ITK? When will we see the fruits of their labour? Is their leader supportive of whatever it is “they” are working on? Why does Nicola Sturgeon seem unclear on their approach?
You have to appreciate that they are united by what they don't want, but not with what they do want. What you have to have faith in is that they don't want a hard Brexit enough to let it happen and they do know they have the numbers to prevent it if required. Otherwise they would be reluctantly voting for May's plan!
When will Labour call for that vote of no confidence? It will be remarkable if they don’t given the situation but I’m not holding my breath. I think the next big move will be 48 letters dropping onto the 1922 committees desk. The hard brexiters can’t risk May getting something out of Brussels and getting her deal through.
The short answer is probably "after she loses the vote".
I think Labour's position is that they don't want to fail to topple her by calling the vote of confidence before she has lost the vote. (sorry for the double-triple negatives!) - MPs would be reluctant to decapitate the Government before putting the deal to the vote.
So, my guess is that they are waiting for the newly renegotiated deal (that both sides of the deal said could not be renegotiated) to be brought back and then voted down.
As for my guess as to "when"? Well, I have it on good authority that Theresa May will complete this before Christmas. But she hasn't yet decided how much Christmas is going to be delayed yet.
People may criticise this, but it makes sense. Why do it and lose it. Timing is everything here.
I agree the time is everything, but it’s running out. Messing around with votes of no confidence doesn’t move the situation on at all.
The prime minister is defeated and disgraced, Labour should be working with the opposition parties and Remainer Tories to come up with a solution that would command a majority in the house - be that Norway or second referendum. They should also be introducing legislation which would revoke Article 50 to give us time to do this.
Labour’s hesitation isn’t a master plan, it’s a sign that they are just as divided as the Tory party with a leader that wants something different to the majority of his MPs (again, like the Tory party).
If would have to be an extension of Article 50, not a revocation - the EU would not allow it just to buy more time, it would have to be in good faith that it wouldn’t then be invoked again 3-6 months down the line.
You have to appreciate that they are united by what they don't want, but not with what they do want. What you have to have faith in is that they don't want a hard Brexit enough to let it happen and they do know they have the numbers to prevent it if required. Otherwise they would be reluctantly voting for May's plan!
But it is required - if they can’t agree on what they want, propose the legislation required, get it through the house and have it agreed with the EU then we will have a hard Brexit in three months time - that is the hard truth.
You’ve been saying for a while “trust me, remainers are working together behind the scenes” - where’s the evidence? What are they working on? There appears to be a parliamentary consensus on what we don’t want, but a see no majority for any of the proposed alternatives.
We will have an election before a hard Brexit. The vote of no confidence is a major stand for some MPs to take, when it is against their own party. They are not going to rush into it unless they feel they have no choice.
We will have an election before a hard Brexit. The vote of no confidence is a major thing for some MPs to take, when it is against their own party. They are not going to rush into it unless they feel they have no choice.
We are going to have an election in the next three months?
No of course not. You were probably one of those telling me that Labour wouldn't vote to have a second referendum as an option, or that we couldn't have a vote on any deal. If there is a vote of no confidence won, article 50 would be paused - with the possibility of no Brexit at all, the EU are highly likely to accept this.
But preference of Tory remainers is a referendum. They will fight for that and the fact is, it is the government's only real option if you accept May's plan has no chance.
No of course not. You were probably one of those telling me that Labour wouldn't vote to have a second referendum as an option, or that we couldn't have a vote on any deal. If there is a vote of no confidence won, article 50 would be paused - with the possibility of no Brexit at all, the EU are highly likely to accept this.
But preference of Tory remainers is a referendum. They will fight for that and the fact is, it is the government's only real option if you accept May's plan has no chance.
You talk in certain terms about things that are not certain at all.
Unfortunately the act of standing up requires a backbone and there's a catastrophic scarcity of those in Parliament nowadays.
21:07 Emergency debate to take place tomorrow
Emergency debate application
House of Commons
Parliament
Speaker John Bercow says he is satisfied that the matter raised by Jeremy Corbyn is "absolutely proper" to be discussed under standing order 24 (which concerns emergency debates).
All opposition MPs, plus a number of governments MPs, stand in support of the motion, with none objecting.
The debate will be held tomorrow for up to three hours, Mr Bercow says.
Why on earth would article 50 be paused if there is a vote of no confidence? You would need a new government to be formed to request a pause (fat chance) and then for all 27 EU states to agree.
No of course not. You were probably one of those telling me that Labour wouldn't vote to have a second referendum as an option, or that we couldn't have a vote on any deal. If there is a vote of no confidence won, article 50 would be paused - with the possibility of no Brexit at all, the EU are highly likely to accept this.
But preference of Tory remainers is a referendum. They will fight for that and the fact is, it is the government's only real option if you accept May's plan has no chance.
You talk in certain terms about things that are not certain at all.
But you have to have faith in one thing - that is the house won't allow a hard Brexit - if you accept that, what else can happen?
If there is an election, it would be paused. That would follow a vote of no confidence. If there is a referendum it would also be paused.
May's deal will never be passed, and then it is whether you believe the house will stop a hard Brexit or not. If you do, then it has to be a referendum or an election. I agree that a referendum is much more likely. What can't happen is Brexit is just cancelled by MPs.
No of course not. You were probably one of those telling me that Labour wouldn't vote to have a second referendum as an option, or that we couldn't have a vote on any deal. If there is a vote of no confidence won, article 50 would be paused - with the possibility of no Brexit at all, the EU are highly likely to accept this.
But preference of Tory remainers is a referendum. They will fight for that and the fact is, it is the government's only real option if you accept May's plan has no chance.
You talk in certain terms about things that are not certain at all.
But you have to have faith in one thing - that is the house won't allow a hard Brexit - if you accept that, what else can happen?
If there is an election, it would be paused. That would follow a vote of no confidence. If there is a referendum it would also be paused.
Again, you are using terms of certainty like “would” - I’d replace it would “could” and you’ll be closer to the truth. The ECJ were clear that to “pause” Brexit we would need the consent of the 27 remaining members, I wouldn’t be so sure that we would get that.
It’s not a question of whether the house will “allow” a hard Brexit or not - if they don’t propose, legislate and agree with EU an alternative within 3 months then that’s what we’re getting.
One thing Brexiters are correct about - the EU doesn't want a hard Brexit. Given the opportunity to avoid it with the strong possibility of no Brexit at all - do you actually believe it will not take that option?
One thing not being considered here it seems is the possibility that May will face a leadership challenge and be replaced. The papers and political correspondents were full of that possibility this morning and I think that this is by far and away now the most likely scenario.
This is true. trying to think about where that would end - what if a hard Brexiter won? What if a remainer won? Who is the person that won't create a complete rift in the party? If it is somebody the ERG supported, I'm confident you would see the backlash!
One thing Brexiters are correct about - the EU doesn't want a hard Brexit. Given the opportunity to avoid it with the strong possibility of no Brexit at all - do you actually believe it will not take that option?
Surely it depends what we offer them as an alternative? I doubt an election would be a particuarly interesting option to the EU given that Labour’s position - the “six tests” - is as contradictory as May’s red line and would stand a good chance of being rejected by Parliament again.
I think the referendum would be the best bet for them, but Brexit would be a major issue in an election and there would be a possibility of Brexit being stopped or severely weakened following that. What would they have to lose?
This is true. trying to think about where that would end - what if a hard Brexiter won? What if a remainer won? Who is the person that won't create a complete rift in the party? If it is somebody the ERG supported, I'm confident you would see the backlash!
Tory brexiters don’t see Mays deal as a true Brexit. ERG want a hard Brexit. My fear is that a hard brexiter will take over from May and then just procrastinate and sit on their hands until March 29th when we exit. Hard to see a course of action available to counter this. I think there will be a challenge because brexiters are seeing their Brexit slipping away.
If there was a snap GE, wouldn’t it be reasonable to expect the LibDems to have a surge in support if 50%+ of the electorate are now in favour of Remain?
There is one important question for me as a remainer. That is, would parliament stop a no deal Brexit if May takes this to the wire as it looks like she is doing or trying to do? If you believe the answer to that question is yes, events could be positive, as when the deal is rejected, parliament would have to force another vote or even kick Brexit into touch. However, if you do not believe Parliament will stop a no deal Brexit, or even think it may not be able to, it is probably best to support May's deal.
Seeing as it is a ridiculous deal that is nothing to nobody, maybe now is the time for remainers of all parties to grow a pair and work out how no deal will be stopped.
Look I may be wrong, but for me, I have always seen the prize of no Brexit happening when this goes to the wire. I posted above on 16 November.
If there was a snap GE, wouldn’t it be reasonable to expect the LibDems to have a surge in support if 50%+ of the electorate are now in favour of Remain?
They currently have 8 (?) MP’s. They are starting from such a low point that it’s impossible to see them having any impact despite the circumstances.
Comments
The prime minister is defeated and disgraced, Labour should be working with the opposition parties and Remainer Tories to come up with a solution that would command a majority in the house - be that Norway or second referendum. They should also be introducing legislation which would revoke Article 50 to give us time to do this.
Labour’s hesitation isn’t a master plan, it’s a sign that they are just as divided as the Tory party with a leader that wants something different to the majority of his MPs (again, like the Tory party).
Spot on about Corbyn though.
You’ve been saying for a while “trust me, remainers are working together behind the scenes” - where’s the evidence? What are they working on? There appears to be a parliamentary consensus on what we don’t want, but a see no majority for any of the proposed alternatives.
But preference of Tory remainers is a referendum. They will fight for that and the fact is, it is the government's only real option if you accept May's plan has no chance.
Emergency debate to take place tomorrow
Emergency debate application
House of Commons
Parliament
Speaker John Bercow says he is satisfied that the matter raised by Jeremy Corbyn is "absolutely proper" to be discussed under standing order 24 (which concerns emergency debates).
All opposition MPs, plus a number of governments MPs, stand in support of the motion, with none objecting.
The debate will be held tomorrow for up to three hours, Mr Bercow says.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-parliaments-46506969
If there is an election, it would be paused. That would follow a vote of no confidence. If there is a referendum it would also be paused.
It’s not a question of whether the house will “allow” a hard Brexit or not - if they don’t propose, legislate and agree with EU an alternative within 3 months then that’s what we’re getting.