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The influence of the EU on Britain.

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    @Henry Irving . Have you started the Chippyesque process of just LOLing certain people no matter what they say?
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    Henry can party with his Lib Dem chums - and bemoan the fact that nobody will vote for them. And never quite undertsand why! :) It is becoming clear from statements from all parties that the house will not accept a hard Brexit. May is driving into the wall and us remainers have to let her.

    BTW, the reason I was hoping for a failed coup against the Prime Minister, is there is going to be a point after the plan is defeated, where the hard Brexiters will be faced with supporting a second reading of May's plan or a referendum - they are hoping we will crash out, but if that doesn't happen, it is better they burn the bridges by the time that vote comes.

    Why will they? Surely if May’s deal is voted down in Parliament (as it will be) then we are heading for a no deal exit in March unless and until some alternative is proposed to Parliament, approved and agreed to by the EU? That alternative is by no means guaranteed, not least because Labour keep banging on about a general election which is clearly not going to happen in the four month window that we have.
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    edited November 2018
    That is what May will try to persuade people of, but personally, I don't believe the house would let that outcome happen. From what I have heard from some Tory politicians as well as those from other parties. I would say that there will have been or will be cross party Remainer meetings to work out these next steps after the vote. In fact, that is something I am pretty sure is going on now.

    To take the path to no Brexit, you have to grow a pair. This is panning out as I predicted quite a few months back.

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    That is what May will try to persuade people of, but personally, I don't believe the house would let that outcome happen. From what I have heard from some Tory politicians as well as those from other parties. I would say that there will have been or will be cross party Remainer meetings to work out these next steps after the vote. In fact, that is something I am pretty sure is going on now.

    To take the path to no Brexit, you have to grow a pair. This is panning out as I predicted quite a few months back.

    I tend to agree. The deal is interestingly being described by everybody as a 'halfway house'. It would not be very difficult for Brexiters to consider it a halfway house to being out out and Remainers a halfway house towards staying in.
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    That is what May will try to persuade people of, but personally, I don't believe the house would let that outcome happen. From what I have heard from some Tory politicians as well as those from other parties. I would say that there will have been or will be cross party Remainer meetings to work out these next steps after the vote. In fact, that is something I am pretty sure is going on now.

    To take the path to no Brexit, you have to grow a pair. This is panning out as I predicted quite a few months back.

    That is what May will try to persuade people of, but personally, I don't believe the house would let that outcome happen. From what I have heard from some Tory politicians as well as those from other parties. I would say that there will have been or will be cross party Remainer meetings to work out these next steps after the vote. In fact, that is something I am pretty sure is going on now.

    To take the path to no Brexit, you have to grow a pair. This is panning out as I predicted quite a few months back.

    But there’s no option for the House to just “not let that happen” regardless of what “some Tory politicians” might think. There are two sides to a negotiation and to avoid hard Brexit in March the EU need to also agree to an alternative to what is on the table.

    I’m thankful for your foresight, it’s admirable, but I’m not as confident as you that this is all part of some remainer master plan and they will be ready to strike as soon as the deal gets struck down - not least because the main body of remainers belong to a party whose preference is a general election which would take us way beyond the March timeframe.
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    The ERM can't event negotiate 48 letters between themselves. God knows how they'd manage to sort our trade deals.



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    edited November 2018
    If May's plan fails, it is important the ERG are blamed. And to be fair, given the numbers, it would be their fault. When we get our second referendum, everybody should be blaming them :)

    Voters avoid Liberals because the world is moving that way - it is popularism that carries the day. I would rather Corbyn's popularism (especially when it is essentially social democratic) than Trump's, Rees-Moggs or Farage's and they are not the most extreme you can get. You had May telling everybody how well we are doing yesterday. Now that is all well and good, but if they don't feel it, well that is how you get the Brexit vote going how it did.
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    seth plum said:

    I assume that people don't trust the Libdems enough to vote for them.

    For me it’s not an issue of trust. I don’t trust any of them. The reality is that there can only be either a Conservative or Labour government and voting Lib Dem is like pissing in the wind.

    As P Weller said, the people get what the people want.
    It's not gone very well though, has it? Be you a Tory Or Labour brexiteer or remainer. With the Lib Dems in power the time, expense and effort wasted on Brexit could have been channeled to far better ends, mainly reducing inequality.

    Would Brexit have happened if the Lib Dems were voted in?
    judging by the post vote apocalypse on here and posters attitude to the LibDems you do wonder why voting for them is seen as pissing in the wind.
    But it’s not just about attitude to the Lib Dem’s. My MP is Clive Efford (Labour) in the Eltham constituency. I think he’s a good local MP and I like him. There is and most often is a danger in Eltham of a Tory being returned. Anathema to me. I continue to vote for Efford not only because I think he’s good, but also to ensure that a Tory is not returned. The Lib Dem policy on Brexit is the party line I could and would vote for but I know there is absolutely no chance of there being a Lib Dem government. That’s a fact. I can’t waste my vote (pissing in the wind) on them and also risk some Tory winning in Eltham. All sad but all true.

    I’m effectively a labour voter voting tactically in a labour seat.

    In terms of the individual do you compare Efford to the other candidates and assess the cut of their jib, or is Political Party the main driver for you?
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    seth plum said:

    The Liberals swore blind they wouldn't raise tuition fees, but then waved not just a raise, but a tripling, through.
    They then felt it was necessary to say sorry.
    Then the interest rate on the fees are 6.8%.
    There could be all kinds of reasoning and explanations, after all politicians are clever lawyers who can construct all kinds of supposed justifications.
    However the Liberals lied, went back on their word yet assume all you have to do is say sorry and it is all forgiven. That knowledge remains with people.
    I know they're probably all at it, but their lie, or promise, was so barefaced and was driven by a lust for a bit of power, and the impact has been very widespread.
    In that context I believe voters avoid the Liberals because you don't know what you're going to get.

    Lib dems made a foolish calculated gamble in playing their AV ref card rather than the writing off student loans card in their negotiations with the tories. If it would've come off it wouldve permanently made the lib dems the kingmakers of future governments.

    I do think, however, it's extremely harsh to blame the lib dems when they were the junior in a coalition government. I also think they should've renamed it "graduation tax" rather than repayment of student loans. I think they've admitted such since.

    Some of their policies now are quite good, legalisation of weed, combining capital gains and dividends tax into income tax and raise the personal allowance is a good shout, raises more money whilst low earners can keep more money and also simplifies the tax system further.
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    I think that damaged them. The AV vote they got and result they campaigned for wasn't all that fairer than the current system so they never had a chance. They were played by Cameron.
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    seth plum said:

    I assume that people don't trust the Libdems enough to vote for them.

    For me it’s not an issue of trust. I don’t trust any of them. The reality is that there can only be either a Conservative or Labour government and voting Lib Dem is like pissing in the wind.

    As P Weller said, the people get what the people want.
    It's not gone very well though, has it? Be you a Tory Or Labour brexiteer or remainer. With the Lib Dems in power the time, expense and effort wasted on Brexit could have been channeled to far better ends, mainly reducing inequality.

    Would Brexit have happened if the Lib Dems were voted in?
    judging by the post vote apocalypse on here and posters attitude to the LibDems you do wonder why voting for them is seen as pissing in the wind.
    But it’s not just about attitude to the Lib Dem’s. My MP is Clive Efford (Labour) in the Eltham constituency. I think he’s a good local MP and I like him. There is and most often is a danger in Eltham of a Tory being returned. Anathema to me. I continue to vote for Efford not only because I think he’s good, but also to ensure that a Tory is not returned. The Lib Dem policy on Brexit is the party line I could and would vote for but I know there is absolutely no chance of there being a Lib Dem government. That’s a fact. I can’t waste my vote (pissing in the wind) on them and also risk some Tory winning in Eltham. All sad but all true.

    I’m effectively a labour voter voting tactically in a labour seat.

    I agree he’s a reasonably good local MP, but I didn’t vote for him as to do so would have been a vote for Corbyn. He’s fairly safe in his seat I would say. I tend to vote for a party rather than an individual at GE’s.
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    seth plum said:

    The Liberals swore blind they wouldn't raise tuition fees, but then waved not just a raise, but a tripling, through.
    They then felt it was necessary to say sorry.
    Then the interest rate on the fees are 6.8%.
    There could be all kinds of reasoning and explanations, after all politicians are clever lawyers who can construct all kinds of supposed justifications.
    However the Liberals lied, went back on their word yet assume all you have to do is say sorry and it is all forgiven. That knowledge remains with people.
    I know they're probably all at it, but their lie, or promise, was so barefaced and was driven by a lust for a bit of power, and the impact has been very widespread.
    In that context I believe voters avoid the Liberals because you don't know what you're going to get.

    Lib dems made a foolish calculated gamble in playing their AV ref card rather than the writing off student loans card in their negotiations with the tories. If it would've come off it wouldve permanently made the lib dems the kingmakers of future governments.

    I do think, however, it's extremely harsh to blame the lib dems when they were the junior in a coalition government. I also think they should've renamed it "graduation tax" rather than repayment of student loans. I think they've admitted such since.

    Some of their policies now are quite good, legalisation of weed, combining capital gains and dividends tax into income tax and raise the personal allowance is a good shout, raises more money whilst low earners can keep more money and also simplifies the tax system further.
    Harsh, or extremely harsh?
    I don't know what subsequent pronouncements they have made on the 6.2% interest rate, maybe they think talking further about tuition fees is best avoided.
    They may well have good policies but struggle to sell them. In the Lewisham East by-election I was absolutely bombarded by stuff from Lucy Balek the Liberal candidate, but her thing was about being the only person likely to shift Labour, not what good policies she was promoting.
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    I tend to vote for whoever has the best chance of beating the Tory. I would have voted for somebody like Anna Soubry at the last election, but that is only because of Brexit. I do admire her though.
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    edited November 2018
    seth plum said:

    seth plum said:

    I assume that people don't trust the Libdems enough to vote for them.

    For me it’s not an issue of trust. I don’t trust any of them. The reality is that there can only be either a Conservative or Labour government and voting Lib Dem is like pissing in the wind.

    As P Weller said, the people get what the people want.
    It's not gone very well though, has it? Be you a Tory Or Labour brexiteer or remainer. With the Lib Dems in power the time, expense and effort wasted on Brexit could have been channeled to far better ends, mainly reducing inequality.

    Would Brexit have happened if the Lib Dems were voted in?
    judging by the post vote apocalypse on here and posters attitude to the LibDems you do wonder why voting for them is seen as pissing in the wind.
    But it’s not just about attitude to the Lib Dem’s. My MP is Clive Efford (Labour) in the Eltham constituency. I think he’s a good local MP and I like him. There is and most often is a danger in Eltham of a Tory being returned. Anathema to me. I continue to vote for Efford not only because I think he’s good, but also to ensure that a Tory is not returned. The Lib Dem policy on Brexit is the party line I could and would vote for but I know there is absolutely no chance of there being a Lib Dem government. That’s a fact. I can’t waste my vote (pissing in the wind) on them and also risk some Tory winning in Eltham. All sad but all true.

    I’m effectively a labour voter voting tactically in a labour seat.

    In terms of the individual do you compare Efford to the other candidates and assess the cut of their jib, or is Political Party the main driver for you?
    I’ve never voted for anyone other than Labour. Would I consider not ? Yes certainly in the current circumstances. I’m not convinced by Corbyn and his acolytes and feel that Labour has moved away from me not the other way around.

    I remember a long discussion about tactical voting with a friend and I have always been sceptical of its real merits but in the current political climate I think it’s essential to look at that when voting. In my constituency it’s easy but at some point in the future I will be moving and will I suspect vote Lib Dem in order to beat the Conservatives. Voting labour would be pissing in the wind.

    Hardly ever come across a Tory that I could vote for.

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    I'm not saying that being in the EU is like being in a CULT, but it was a so much easier doing a runner from 'Jesus wants you as a disciple, make love not war' back in the 70's.
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    Its a club with preferential rules for its members. It is a pretty complicated club and once in it, it was always economic folly to try to get out of it!
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    edited November 2018
    seth plum said:

    The Liberals swore blind they wouldn't raise tuition fees, but then waved not just a raise, but a tripling, through.
    They then felt it was necessary to say sorry.
    Then the interest rate on the fees are 6.8%.
    There could be all kinds of reasoning and explanations, after all politicians are clever lawyers who can construct all kinds of supposed justifications.
    However the Liberals lied, went back on their word yet assume all you have to do is say sorry and it is all forgiven. That knowledge remains with people.
    I know they're probably all at it, but their lie, or promise, was so barefaced and was driven by a lust for a bit of power, and the impact has been very widespread.
    In that context I believe voters avoid the Liberals because you don't know what you're going to get.

    A little knowledge is a dangerous thing.

    When you say swore blind, I think you mean it was a manifesto declaration they wanted to enact in coalition.
    This was BEFORE the note ;
    From the Grauniad ‘I’m afraid there is no money.’ The letter I will regret for ever
    Liam Byrne, chief secretary to the Treasury under Gordon Brown, left a note for his successor that proved to be a gift for the Conservatives.


    Which, whilst mere piffle, highlighted the state of the nations finances. something not declared at the time Lib Dems wrote their manifesto.

    So a good intention, thwarted by 'global recession' means that a whole political party cannot be taken seriously again?

    This is just nuts, but saves lazy voters putting any thought into their choices.
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    At the end of the day, the Libs Dems will never get in because people believe they will never get in. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy, and a mindset that is incredibly difficult to break. We can also use sophistry and hindsight to point out why the Lib Dems lost a particular year, but it's all just noise when compared to the universally held "truth" that a vote for the Lib Dems is a wasted voted.
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    At the end of the day, the Libs Dems will never get in because people believe they will never get in. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy, and a mindset that is incredibly difficult to break. We can also use sophistry and hindsight to point out why the Lib Dems lost a particular year, but it's all just noise when compared to the universally held "truth" that a vote for the Lib Dems is a wasted voted.

    If the Lib Dem’s ever pull equal to the “big two” it will almost certainly result in there never being a majority government again. No bad thing some might say ? The effect could be to drag the extremes of right and left towards the middle. There might be the emergence of a centrist party which no doubt would swallow the Lib Dem’s and appeal to the middle voters. Labour seem entrenched and “safe” in their stance for now but another election loss might seed some change although Momentum and Unite are so in control I doubt any shift in policy no matter how unattractive that makes them to the electorate. The Tories will of course always try to be all things to all people propped up by the right of centre media. Their big danger is that whatever Brexit we get splits them beyond repair but I think they are cynical and savvy enough to say and do whatever it takes to at least put on a front of unity. They have been doing exactly that for forty years.





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    I'm not saying that being in the EU is like being in a CULT, but it was a so much easier doing a runner from 'Jesus wants you as a disciple, make love not war' back in the 70's.

    Doing a runner from the EU is the easiest thing in the World, just let the Article 50 process end without an exit agreement...

    So, if you want to leave without looking back, or without being on good terms with the UK's closest neighbours, go for it.

    Leaving in a manner that will not completely f**k over the country, however, takes a willingness to compromise and an understanding that the UK's sovereign decision does not prevent the EU27 expressing their own sovereign wishes, collectively, to protect what they see as their interest.
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    edited November 2018
    The government should simply have just gone for EEA/EFTA membership like the Leave campaigns promised. Trying to create a bespoke deal that would need to be approved by all 27 EU states as well as having our schedules approved at the WTO and be palatable to the British voters and the House of Commons, in two years, was simply never going to happen.

    Of course the real mistake was taking an advisory referendum with no legal safeguards and treating the dead heat result a binding decision based on a campaign that never existed.
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    So the country is teetering on the brink of disaster with an appalling xenophobic PM pursuing BRINO which is a far worse deal than the one we have at the moment, and EUnicorn chasing Corbyn who wants Lexit, a fantasy Brexit as ridiculous as the cake & eat it Tory Brexiteers wanted, but hey let's blame the Lib Dems.
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    seth plum said:

    The Liberals swore blind they wouldn't raise tuition fees, but then waved not just a raise, but a tripling, through.
    They then felt it was necessary to say sorry.
    Then the interest rate on the fees are 6.8%.
    There could be all kinds of reasoning and explanations, after all politicians are clever lawyers who can construct all kinds of supposed justifications.
    However the Liberals lied, went back on their word yet assume all you have to do is say sorry and it is all forgiven. That knowledge remains with people.
    I know they're probably all at it, but their lie, or promise, was so barefaced and was driven by a lust for a bit of power, and the impact has been very widespread.
    In that context I believe voters avoid the Liberals because you don't know what you're going to get.

    A little knowledge is a dangerous thing.

    When you say swore blind, I think you mean it was a manifesto declaration they wanted to enact in coalition.
    This was BEFORE the note ;
    From the Grauniad ‘I’m afraid there is no money.’ The letter I will regret for ever
    Liam Byrne, chief secretary to the Treasury under Gordon Brown, left a note for his successor that proved to be a gift for the Conservatives.


    Which, whilst mere piffle, highlighted the state of the nations finances. something not declared at the time Lib Dems wrote their manifesto.

    So a good intention, thwarted by 'global recession' means that a whole political party cannot be taken seriously again?

    This is just nuts, but saves lazy voters putting any thought into their choices.
    I am far from being a lazy voter.
    I attend local hustings, I even went to my MP's surgery three weeks ago.
    I pay attention.
    The Liberals apologised for what they were a party to, they realised they had broken their word (one which they had made a song and dance about before that election), so why apologise if they could shift the blame?
    My point is that they damaged trust in themselves, if you think people who feel a bit conned are wrong because they are 'lazy' or refuse to see the bigger picture then of course you must think that, but I am afraid there are many voters who didn't and don't like what happened.
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    Fiiish said:

    So the country is teetering on the brink of disaster with an appalling xenophobic PM pursuing BRINO which is a far worse deal than the one we have at the moment, and EUnicorn chasing Corbyn who wants Lexit, a fantasy Brexit as ridiculous as the cake & eat it Tory Brexiteers wanted, but hey let's blame the Lib Dems.

    I know. It's amazing how quickly any attempt to pin any blame on the Tories gets quickly shut down and the discussion diverted to Tony Blair/Iraq/Jeremy Corbyn/anti-semitism/LibDems. Almost like blaming a car crash caused by a drunk driver on the homeless man locked in the boot.
    Expect a lot more of it.
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    Fiiish said:

    So the country is teetering on the brink of disaster with an appalling xenophobic PM pursuing BRINO which is a far worse deal than the one we have at the moment, and EUnicorn chasing Corbyn who wants Lexit, a fantasy Brexit as ridiculous as the cake & eat it Tory Brexiteers wanted, but hey let's blame the Lib Dems.

    I know. It's amazing how quickly any attempt to pin any blame on the Tories gets quickly shut down and the discussion diverted to Tony Blair/Iraq/Jeremy Corbyn/anti-semitism/LibDems. Almost like blaming a car crash caused by a drunk driver on the homeless man locked in the boot.
    Expect a lot more of it.
    jeremycorbynbeingpresentbutnotinvolved.jpg
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Roland Out Forever!