This is a great plan. Written by Leaver Baldrick I think. It is cunning because in order to keep the peace it proposes something that would drive the Unionists into a state of fury, thereby forci ng the whole thing to be dropped and the UK crashing out of the EU without a deal. Brilliant Leaver plan.
Or perhaps not...
It is simply Civil Servants, in the absence of direction from their political masters, attempting to find a method of achieving the unachievable, to marry the contradictory commitments that have been made by the UK Prime Minister.
Sadly, however, IMHO, the suggestion is unlikely to be a runner, there are still the non-tariff controls that would be required at the border, particularly for foodstuffs, unless the UK as a whole continues to have regulatory alignment with the EU (which means no trade deal with the USA (or anyone else), if that includes products that are prohibited from the EU Single Market).
What is much more likely to be the Baldrick plan is the Cabinet's continuing fannying about, using up valuable time negotiating with itself on what it wants (but only considering ideas that they have already been told are unacceptable to the EU). Much more of this and there'll be no exit agreement, with a cliff edge at the end of March 2019, and probably decades of litigation over the UK's financial commitments.
This is a great plan. Written by Leaver Baldrick I think. It is cunning because in order to keep the peace it proposes something that would drive the Unionists into a state of fury, thereby forci ng the whole thing to be dropped and the UK crashing out of the EU without a deal. Brilliant Leaver plan.
Or perhaps not...
It is simply Civil Servants, in the absence of direction from their political masters, attempting to find a method of achieving the unachievable, to marry the contradictory commitments that have been made by the UK Prime Minister.
Sadly, however, IMHO, the suggestion is unlikely to be a runner, there are still the non-tariff controls that would be required at the border, particularly for foodstuffs, unless the UK as a whole continues to have regulatory alignment with the EU (which means no trade deal with the USA (or anyone else), if that includes products that are prohibited from the EU Single Market.
What is much more likely to be the Baldrick plan is the Cabinet's continuing fannying about, using up valuable time negotiating with itself on what it wants (but only considering ideas that they have already been told are unacceptable to the EU. Much more of this and there'll be no exit agreement, with a cliff edge at the end of March 2019, and probably decades of litigation over the UK's financial commitments.
Never mind, brexiters are across all this because they knew what they were voting for.
This is a great plan. Written by Leaver Baldrick I think. It is cunning because in order to keep the peace it proposes something that would drive the Unionists into a state of fury, thereby forci ng the whole thing to be dropped and the UK crashing out of the EU without a deal. Brilliant Leaver plan.
Or perhaps not...
It is simply Civil Servants, in the absence of direction from their political masters, attempting to find a method of achieving the unachievable, to marry the contradictory commitments that have been made by the UK Prime Minister.
Sadly, however, IMHO, the suggestion is unlikely to be a runner, there are still the non-tariff controls that would be required at the border, particularly for foodstuffs, unless the UK as a whole continues to have regulatory alignment with the EU (which means no trade deal with the USA (or anyone else), if that includes products that are prohibited from the EU Single Market).
What is much more likely to be the Baldrick plan is the Cabinet's continuing fannying about, using up valuable time negotiating with itself on what it wants (but only considering ideas that they have already been told are unacceptable to the EU). Much more of this and there'll be no exit agreement, with a cliff edge at the end of March 2019, and probably decades of litigation over the UK's financial commitments.
Much more of this and perhaps Parliament will "take back control" and simply vote through a Customs Union! We have a stalemate in the polls as well as stasis within the government. The clock is ticking leaving one option for Parliament to vote on something similar to the status quo... or ask for an extension to the transition agreement, thus kicking the can down the road.
Naturally there is the distinct possibility that we bounce out with no deal next March but that is the will of just 30% of the electorate and perhaps 100 MPs?
It's not perhaps the best use of time but the nation has to go through this process in order to come through the other side if that makes sense? As an academic excercise it has merits just so we can put the issue to bed, ideally with a something similar to Norway. However the risks to complex manufacturing chains, investment by the likes of Toyota and of course stability in N.Ireland are a tad high.
Nazanin Zhagari-Ratcliffe is still stuck in an Iranian prison, cut off from family especially her toddler daughter and her physical and mental state is deteriorating weekly. Boris Johnson made her prospects much worse six months ago with ignorant comments, even lies, made to a Parliamentary committee. Six months is a long time in prison, and in the life of a child separated from her mother. Now he is game playing with regard to Iran, Trump and nuclear weapons as well as game playing over brexit, customs arrangements and remarks he made over the good Friday agreement. This is the Tory foreign minister. This is the politician for whom working out a way to get power comes before any collateral damage he causes. Boris 'picanniny 'Johnson is a racist evil Prince of Darkness Tory and by comparison Jeremy Corbyn is Nelson Mandela. People get taken in by his carefully studied public bluff and bluster, good old Boris they cry whilst Nazanin suffers month after month. When people vote Tory they are effectively validating that Bullenden bully, yet some tell themselves their Tory vote is a decent one because of Diane Abbott. FFS. Boris has a brother Jo Johnson who on Question Time says Boris doesn't have a racist bone in his body. It is expected for a brother to be loyal to a brother, but are the wider public really so unaware that as a result Boris Johnson is able to map out a route to power? At the moment Labour in power is theoretical, they are not in a position to do any harm or any good. Johnson is in power, the harm he causes is a matter of record, has he done any good? Has he buggery!
Why's that then Chippy? Has everything been sorted out...sorry not everything, I meant anything been sorted.
Not to worry though - loads of time left for the Cabinet to completely disappear up its own jacksy in trying to deliver the impossible whilst manoeuvring themselves individually so they come out with a crack at the top job and the Mail onside.
Back in the real world where people have mortgages to pay and food to put on the table Toyota are making worrying noises about where to put future investment.
I see Heidi Alexander is calling it a day as a Labour MP. She will be a bit of a loss to the anti-Brexit cause. Be interesting to see who Labour put up to replace her.
Most importantly, the Lords have passed an amendment to suggest that a government objective should be to stay in the EEA - the SM and CU. Naturally the government will want to overturn this in the commons but there is no natural majority for this.
If Corbyn graciously caves into the 87% of Labour members who support this path then the onus falls on the Tory rebels.
Tic toc as this requires to be resolved by October. Some say it suits May to be pushed into a soft Brexit? Time will tell.
Most importantly, the Lords have passed an amendment to suggest that a government objective should be to stay in the EEA - the SM and CU. Naturally the government will want to overturn this in the commons but there is no natural majority for this.
If Corbyn graciously caves into the 87% of Labour members who support this path then the onus falls on the Tory rebels.
Tic toc as this requires to be resolved by October. Some say it suits May to be pushed into a soft Brexit? Time will tell.
Theresa May never wanted to leave the EU at all, nor did a majority of the Cabinet or Tory MPs, they will not need a lot of pushing.
Most importantly, the Lords have passed an amendment to suggest that a government objective should be to stay in the EEA - the SM and CU. Naturally the government will want to overturn this in the commons but there is no natural majority for this.
If Corbyn graciously caves into the 87% of Labour members who support this path then the onus falls on the Tory rebels.
Tic toc as this requires to be resolved by October. Some say it suits May to be pushed into a soft Brexit? Time will tell.
Theresa May never wanted to leave the EU at all, nor did a majority of the Cabinet or Tory MPs, they will not need a lot of pushing.
Can someone advise what happens first. End of transitional arrangement or next general election?
That, my friend, is all part of this high stakes game of poker. Forget the rabid press and one off comments from certain players. The only thing which is certain is that there will be a fracture if the government jumps one way or t'other.
In the meantime GDP growth and net migration slow and we wait to see if there will be an "event" or a noticeable shift in the polls.
For what it's worth, my prediction is that perspectives will shift in 12 months after we have left. And that is when more light will be shed on your question. Can the government outlast the transition? Or perhaps extend it?
Labour have committed to remaining in a Customs Union but their voice is not clearly heard. We approach the time when perhaps Her Majesty's opposition need to be louder... on Windrush, Grenfell, housing and ordinary peoples jobs and incomes?
I "enjoy" (in the sense that I find their Irish Times articles informative and convincing) reading Cliff Taylor and Chris Johns' views of where things are heading with regard to trade, and each have produced articles that have been worth reading this week.
I freely admit that, when I read what they are writing, it largely chimes with what I believe to be the case, so there may be an element of echo chamber going on - but, until such a time as the pro-Brexit camp can provide detail of how they can make things work, not just pious hopes or wilfully ignoring the processes by which international trade is carried out (and the latest offering from Policy Exchange really doesn't help that cause), this is unlikely to change.
Of course, the impact of Brexit will not only be felt in terms of trade, but trade is at least more easily measured than other, more emotional or philosophical "collateral damage".
Evening see some have come out of hibernation again...
We are not hibernating, Chips me old mate. Some of us are working hard to ensure you don't end up with Johnson as your PM. Operating losses at the Olympic Stadium of £120m by 2025? how does that sound? ...may not be enough on its own, but all adds to the charge-sheet headed "towering incompetence". I know you don't want Johnson as your PM, so I'm happy to work on your behalf towards this goal. I'm nice like that. Anyway, back to work...
I "enjoy" (in the sense that I find their Irish Times articles informative and convincing) reading Cliff Taylor and Chris Johns' views of where things are heading with regard to trade, and each have produced articles that have been worth reading this week.
I freely admit that, when I read what they are writing, it largely chimes with what I believe to be the case, so there may be an element of echo chamber going on - but, until such a time as the pro-Brexit camp can provide detail of how they can make things work, not just pious hopes or wilfully ignoring the processes by which international trade is carried out (and the latest offering from Policy Exchange really doesn't help that cause), this is unlikely to change.
Of course, the impact of Brexit will not only be felt in terms of trade, but trade is at least more easily measured than other, more emotional or philosophical "collateral damage".
I "enjoy" (in the sense that I find their Irish Times articles informative and convincing) reading Cliff Taylor and Chris Johns' views of where things are heading with regard to trade, and each have produced articles that have been worth reading this week.
I freely admit that, when I read what they are writing, it largely chimes with what I believe to be the case, so there may be an element of echo chamber going on - but, until such a time as the pro-Brexit camp can provide detail of how they can make things work, not just pious hopes or wilfully ignoring the processes by which international trade is carried out (and the latest offering from Policy Exchange really doesn't help that cause), this is unlikely to change.
Of course, the impact of Brexit will not only be felt in terms of trade, but trade is at least more easily measured than other, more emotional or philosophical "collateral damage".
However, they are fatally undone, as are your quoted articles, because they come form a pro-EU position.
In other words, there is no will to make Brexit work despite the technical difficulties, only a constant emphasis on the problems.
It would be more helpful if you took another position, which would be to imagine you are pro-Brexit and come up with a solution to the border problem, assuming Brexit goes ahead, on the basis that every problem has a solution (and I do not mean staying in the EU)
Or would be that too much for you to imagine? Or do you have tou much stake in the status quo?
I "enjoy" (in the sense that I find their Irish Times articles informative and convincing) reading Cliff Taylor and Chris Johns' views of where things are heading with regard to trade, and each have produced articles that have been worth reading this week.
I freely admit that, when I read what they are writing, it largely chimes with what I believe to be the case, so there may be an element of echo chamber going on - but, until such a time as the pro-Brexit camp can provide detail of how they can make things work, not just pious hopes or wilfully ignoring the processes by which international trade is carried out (and the latest offering from Policy Exchange really doesn't help that cause), this is unlikely to change.
Of course, the impact of Brexit will not only be felt in terms of trade, but trade is at least more easily measured than other, more emotional or philosophical "collateral damage".
However, they are fatally undone, as are your quoted articles, because they come form a pro-EU position.
In other words, there is no will to make Brexit work despite the technical difficulties, only a constant emphasis on the problems.
It would be more helpful if you took another position, which would be to imagine you are pro-Brexit and come up with a solution to the border problem, assuming Brexit goes ahead, on the basis that every problem has a solution (and I do not mean staying in the EU)
Or would be that too much for you to imagine? Or do you have tou much stake in the status quo?
May I help. One solution could be razor wire, mines, towers and machine gun nests along the entire length of the border and at each crossing point. It may be problematic but there it is, a suggestion. Your turn.
I "enjoy" (in the sense that I find their Irish Times articles informative and convincing) reading Cliff Taylor and Chris Johns' views of where things are heading with regard to trade, and each have produced articles that have been worth reading this week.
I freely admit that, when I read what they are writing, it largely chimes with what I believe to be the case, so there may be an element of echo chamber going on - but, until such a time as the pro-Brexit camp can provide detail of how they can make things work, not just pious hopes or wilfully ignoring the processes by which international trade is carried out (and the latest offering from Policy Exchange really doesn't help that cause), this is unlikely to change.
Of course, the impact of Brexit will not only be felt in terms of trade, but trade is at least more easily measured than other, more emotional or philosophical "collateral damage".
However, they are fatally undone, as are your quoted articles, because they come form a pro-EU position.
In other words, there is no will to make Brexit work despite the technical difficulties, only a constant emphasis on the problems.
It would be more helpful if you took another position, which would be to imagine you are pro-Brexit and come up with a solution to the border problem, assuming Brexit goes ahead, on the basis that every problem has a solution (and I do not mean staying in the EU)
Or would be that too much for you to imagine? Or do you have tou much stake in the status quo?
Why should I take a position that I believe to be wrong?
I accept that the referendum result was a vote to leave the EU.
But I do not have to accept that the current Government has even the slightest idea about how to make Brexit work. And, the real problems with Brexit have been created by the incompatible desires expressed by the UK Prime Minister.
I do not have to accept leaving the Single Market, or the Customs Union, I could quite happily accept membership of both EFTA and the EEA (because the UK has to be in both to be in the EEA), but I see little evidence that there is sufficient goodwill in the negotiating processes that would encourage other countries to support this option.
If the UK wants out of the Single Market and Customs Union, the only solution to the border (not just in Ireland, but also at the ports), is the introduction of infrastructure and checking of goods, for non-tariff as much as tariff reasons.
Frankly, the UK Government approach to the negotiations of the exit deal, and for all David Davis' bluster, it is only the exit deal and an outline of a preferred future relationship that can be agreed prior to the UK leaving the EU, has been both shambolic and duplicitous. Take, for example the agreement achieved in December, which the UK has consistently sought to repudiate ever since - just how can the UK Government hope to persuade the EU27 to accept their bona fides with regard to Max Fac or the mooted Customs Arrangement, if this is how it reacts to the text that it has formally agreed?
It is clear, however, that the UK Government did not foresee, prior to establishing its red lines, that the desire to exit the Customs Union and Single Market (and, indeed, the confidence and supply arrangement with the DUP) will, by definition, undermine the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement.
The beauty of the GFA is that it could be all things to all men (and even women, though it's the Republic that is better with that whole equality thing these days), it allowed for individuals to view themselves in a different way (within the context of a wider European identity). Whilst the EU is not written into the agreement, beyond peripherally, shared membership of its institutions is the essential element to its survival (a bit like the importance of oxygen when breathing), with both UK and Irish Governments effectively taking a step back and seeking to be neutral honest brokers. A Conservative Party reliant upon the DUP can no longer claim such a role, particularly when it seems reasonable to view the DUP Brexit position as almost a land grab, seeking to pivot Northern Ireland firmly into the UK now and forever camp, in advance of the feared demographic changes.
Frankly, in my opinion, the current Government could not have more successfully sought to undermine the best interests of the UK, and fuck up both the negotiations with the EU27 and the political settlement in Northern Ireland if they had tried.
Northern Ireland is, perhaps surprisingly, a leading producer of quarrying equipment, but also, and less surprisingly, a major producer of fuckwits. I have no doubt that a fairly large number will seek to take advantage of what is unfolding today.
I'm sitting in Belfast looking out at the pissing rain, desperately searching for some indications of sunlit uplands - trust me, there are none that I can see.
Who is Arlene working for? As the people of Northern Ireland voted to remain.
I've been generally moving towards the belief that she, and the DUP, are seeking to replicate the outcome of the Carson/Craig/UVF campaign around the Solemn League and Covenant, to make sure that Northern Ireland remains resolutely British (as they define the term). I am actually beginning to think that they want the Good Friday Agreement to fail.
I do actually think that they are terrified of the demographics, and see this as the last hurrah for Unionist political dominance.
That said, however, there is plenty of evidence, even if only from the DUP political representatives, that there is a strain within the Party that fails to recognise reality (as well as marriage equality, evolution and the like).
I would not want to suggest that they are thick, but plenty of them are ignorant...
Comments
It is simply Civil Servants, in the absence of direction from their political masters, attempting to find a method of achieving the unachievable, to marry the contradictory commitments that have been made by the UK Prime Minister.
Sadly, however, IMHO, the suggestion is unlikely to be a runner, there are still the non-tariff controls that would be required at the border, particularly for foodstuffs, unless the UK as a whole continues to have regulatory alignment with the EU (which means no trade deal with the USA (or anyone else), if that includes products that are prohibited from the EU Single Market).
What is much more likely to be the Baldrick plan is the Cabinet's continuing fannying about, using up valuable time negotiating with itself on what it wants (but only considering ideas that they have already been told are unacceptable to the EU). Much more of this and there'll be no exit agreement, with a cliff edge at the end of March 2019, and probably decades of litigation over the UK's financial commitments.
Naturally there is the distinct possibility that we bounce out with no deal next March but that is the will of just 30% of the electorate and perhaps 100 MPs?
It's not perhaps the best use of time but the nation has to go through this process in order to come through the other side if that makes sense? As an academic excercise it has merits just so we can put the issue to bed, ideally with a something similar to Norway. However the risks to complex manufacturing chains, investment by the likes of Toyota and of course stability in N.Ireland are a tad high.
Boris is still positioning himself for a run at PM then...
Sucking up to Trump will also be helping him with his core support. Nightmare stuff.
Boris Johnson made her prospects much worse six months ago with ignorant comments, even lies, made to a Parliamentary committee.
Six months is a long time in prison, and in the life of a child separated from her mother. Now he is game playing with regard to Iran, Trump and nuclear weapons as well as game playing over brexit, customs arrangements and remarks he made over the good Friday agreement.
This is the Tory foreign minister.
This is the politician for whom working out a way to get power comes before any collateral damage he causes.
Boris 'picanniny 'Johnson is a racist evil Prince of Darkness Tory and by comparison Jeremy Corbyn is Nelson Mandela.
People get taken in by his carefully studied public bluff and bluster, good old Boris they cry whilst Nazanin suffers month after month.
When people vote Tory they are effectively validating that Bullenden bully, yet some tell themselves their Tory vote is a decent one because of Diane Abbott. FFS.
Boris has a brother Jo Johnson who on Question Time says Boris doesn't have a racist bone in his body. It is expected for a brother to be loyal to a brother, but are the wider public really so unaware that as a result Boris Johnson is able to map out a route to power?
At the moment Labour in power is theoretical, they are not in a position to do any harm or any good. Johnson is in power, the harm he causes is a matter of record, has he done any good? Has he buggery!
Not to worry though - loads of time left for the Cabinet to completely disappear up its own jacksy in trying to deliver the impossible whilst manoeuvring themselves individually so they come out with a crack at the top job and the Mail onside.
Back in the real world where people have mortgages to pay and food to put on the table Toyota are making worrying noises about where to put future investment.
https://telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/05/06/cbi-backs-greg-clarks-call-brexit-customs-partnership/
If Corbyn graciously caves into the 87% of Labour members who support this path then the onus falls on the Tory rebels.
Tic toc as this requires to be resolved by October. Some say it suits May to be pushed into a soft Brexit? Time will tell.
No they won't because no fecker knows what the will of the people is in the first place.
Brexit doesn't mean brexit, it seems to mean floundering around in Tory manufactured effluent which is topped up by racist morons.
In the meantime GDP growth and net migration slow and we wait to see if there will be an "event" or a noticeable shift in the polls.
For what it's worth, my prediction is that perspectives will shift in 12 months after we have left. And that is when more light will be shed on your question. Can the government outlast the transition? Or perhaps extend it?
Labour have committed to remaining in a Customs Union but their voice is not clearly heard. We approach the time when perhaps Her Majesty's opposition need to be louder... on Windrush, Grenfell, housing and ordinary peoples jobs and incomes?
I freely admit that, when I read what they are writing, it largely chimes with what I believe to be the case, so there may be an element of echo chamber going on - but, until such a time as the pro-Brexit camp can provide detail of how they can make things work, not just pious hopes or wilfully ignoring the processes by which international trade is carried out (and the latest offering from Policy Exchange really doesn't help that cause), this is unlikely to change.
Of course, the impact of Brexit will not only be felt in terms of trade, but trade is at least more easily measured than other, more emotional or philosophical "collateral damage".
https://irishtimes.com/business/economy/brexit-is-like-quantum-mechanics-nobody-understands-it-1.3485902
https://irishtimes.com/business/economy/cliff-taylor-brexit-ditches-business-and-economic-interests-1.3488351
I can envisage the Sun reprinting it in full on it's front page.
blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/05/09/theresa-may-is-caught-between-the-devil-and-the-dup/
However, they are fatally undone, as are your quoted articles, because they come form a pro-EU position.
In other words, there is no will to make Brexit work despite the technical difficulties, only a constant emphasis on the problems.
It would be more helpful if you took another position, which would be to imagine you are pro-Brexit and come up with a solution to the border problem, assuming Brexit goes ahead, on the basis that every problem has a solution (and I do not mean staying in the EU)
Or would be that too much for you to imagine? Or do you have tou much stake in the status quo?
One solution could be razor wire, mines, towers and machine gun nests along the entire length of the border and at each crossing point. It may be problematic but there it is, a suggestion.
Your turn.
I accept that the referendum result was a vote to leave the EU.
But I do not have to accept that the current Government has even the slightest idea about how to make Brexit work. And, the real problems with Brexit have been created by the incompatible desires expressed by the UK Prime Minister.
I do not have to accept leaving the Single Market, or the Customs Union, I could quite happily accept membership of both EFTA and the EEA (because the UK has to be in both to be in the EEA), but I see little evidence that there is sufficient goodwill in the negotiating processes that would encourage other countries to support this option.
If the UK wants out of the Single Market and Customs Union, the only solution to the border (not just in Ireland, but also at the ports), is the introduction of infrastructure and checking of goods, for non-tariff as much as tariff reasons.
Frankly, the UK Government approach to the negotiations of the exit deal, and for all David Davis' bluster, it is only the exit deal and an outline of a preferred future relationship that can be agreed prior to the UK leaving the EU, has been both shambolic and duplicitous. Take, for example the agreement achieved in December, which the UK has consistently sought to repudiate ever since - just how can the UK Government hope to persuade the EU27 to accept their bona fides with regard to Max Fac or the mooted Customs Arrangement, if this is how it reacts to the text that it has formally agreed?
It is clear, however, that the UK Government did not foresee, prior to establishing its red lines, that the desire to exit the Customs Union and Single Market (and, indeed, the confidence and supply arrangement with the DUP) will, by definition, undermine the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement.
The beauty of the GFA is that it could be all things to all men (and even women, though it's the Republic that is better with that whole equality thing these days), it allowed for individuals to view themselves in a different way (within the context of a wider European identity). Whilst the EU is not written into the agreement, beyond peripherally, shared membership of its institutions is the essential element to its survival (a bit like the importance of oxygen when breathing), with both UK and Irish Governments effectively taking a step back and seeking to be neutral honest brokers. A Conservative Party reliant upon the DUP can no longer claim such a role, particularly when it seems reasonable to view the DUP Brexit position as almost a land grab, seeking to pivot Northern Ireland firmly into the UK now and forever camp, in advance of the feared demographic changes.
Frankly, in my opinion, the current Government could not have more successfully sought to undermine the best interests of the UK, and fuck up both the negotiations with the EU27 and the political settlement in Northern Ireland if they had tried.
Northern Ireland is, perhaps surprisingly, a leading producer of quarrying equipment, but also, and less surprisingly, a major producer of fuckwits. I have no doubt that a fairly large number will seek to take advantage of what is unfolding today.
I'm sitting in Belfast looking out at the pissing rain, desperately searching for some indications of sunlit uplands - trust me, there are none that I can see.
I do actually think that they are terrified of the demographics, and see this as the last hurrah for Unionist political dominance.
That said, however, there is plenty of evidence, even if only from the DUP political representatives, that there is a strain within the Party that fails to recognise reality (as well as marriage equality, evolution and the like).
I would not want to suggest that they are thick, but plenty of them are ignorant...