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The influence of the EU on Britain.

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    edited May 2018
    Southbank said:

    This is a great plan. Written by Leaver Baldrick I think.
    It is cunning because in order to keep the peace it proposes something that would drive the Unionists into a state of fury, thereby forci ng the whole thing to be dropped and the UK crashing out of the EU without a deal.
    Brilliant Leaver plan.

    Or perhaps not...

    It is simply Civil Servants, in the absence of direction from their political masters, attempting to find a method of achieving the unachievable, to marry the contradictory commitments that have been made by the UK Prime Minister.

    Sadly, however, IMHO, the suggestion is unlikely to be a runner, there are still the non-tariff controls that would be required at the border, particularly for foodstuffs, unless the UK as a whole continues to have regulatory alignment with the EU (which means no trade deal with the USA (or anyone else), if that includes products that are prohibited from the EU Single Market).

    What is much more likely to be the Baldrick plan is the Cabinet's continuing fannying about, using up valuable time negotiating with itself on what it wants (but only considering ideas that they have already been told are unacceptable to the EU). Much more of this and there'll be no exit agreement, with a cliff edge at the end of March 2019, and probably decades of litigation over the UK's financial commitments.
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    Southbank said:

    This is a great plan. Written by Leaver Baldrick I think.
    It is cunning because in order to keep the peace it proposes something that would drive the Unionists into a state of fury, thereby forci ng the whole thing to be dropped and the UK crashing out of the EU without a deal.
    Brilliant Leaver plan.

    Or perhaps not...

    It is simply Civil Servants, in the absence of direction from their political masters, attempting to find a method of achieving the unachievable, to marry the contradictory commitments that have been made by the UK Prime Minister.

    Sadly, however, IMHO, the suggestion is unlikely to be a runner, there are still the non-tariff controls that would be required at the border, particularly for foodstuffs, unless the UK as a whole continues to have regulatory alignment with the EU (which means no trade deal with the USA (or anyone else), if that includes products that are prohibited from the EU Single Market.

    What is much more likely to be the Baldrick plan is the Cabinet's continuing fannying about, using up valuable time negotiating with itself on what it wants (but only considering ideas that they have already been told are unacceptable to the EU. Much more of this and there'll be no exit agreement, with a cliff edge at the end of March 2019, and probably decades of litigation over the UK's financial commitments.
    Never mind, brexiters are across all this because they knew what they were voting for.
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    Arlene Foster on Marr said she wants the impossible and is waiting for government to come up with ideas on how to provide it.
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    Southbank said:

    This is a great plan. Written by Leaver Baldrick I think.
    It is cunning because in order to keep the peace it proposes something that would drive the Unionists into a state of fury, thereby forci ng the whole thing to be dropped and the UK crashing out of the EU without a deal.
    Brilliant Leaver plan.

    Or perhaps not...

    It is simply Civil Servants, in the absence of direction from their political masters, attempting to find a method of achieving the unachievable, to marry the contradictory commitments that have been made by the UK Prime Minister.

    Sadly, however, IMHO, the suggestion is unlikely to be a runner, there are still the non-tariff controls that would be required at the border, particularly for foodstuffs, unless the UK as a whole continues to have regulatory alignment with the EU (which means no trade deal with the USA (or anyone else), if that includes products that are prohibited from the EU Single Market).

    What is much more likely to be the Baldrick plan is the Cabinet's continuing fannying about, using up valuable time negotiating with itself on what it wants (but only considering ideas that they have already been told are unacceptable to the EU). Much more of this and there'll be no exit agreement, with a cliff edge at the end of March 2019, and probably decades of litigation over the UK's financial commitments.
    Much more of this and perhaps Parliament will "take back control" and simply vote through a Customs Union! We have a stalemate in the polls as well as stasis within the government. The clock is ticking leaving one option for Parliament to vote on something similar to the status quo... or ask for an extension to the transition agreement, thus kicking the can down the road.

    Naturally there is the distinct possibility that we bounce out with no deal next March but that is the will of just 30% of the electorate and perhaps 100 MPs?

    It's not perhaps the best use of time but the nation has to go through this process in order to come through the other side if that makes sense? As an academic excercise it has merits just so we can put the issue to bed, ideally with a something similar to Norway. However the risks to complex manufacturing chains, investment by the likes of Toyota and of course stability in N.Ireland are a tad high.
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    edited May 2018
    image

    Boris is still positioning himself for a run at PM then...
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    image

    Boris is still positioning himself for a run at PM then...

    Trying to elbow Mogg aside!

    Sucking up to Trump will also be helping him with his core support. Nightmare stuff.
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    Nazanin Zhagari-Ratcliffe is still stuck in an Iranian prison, cut off from family especially her toddler daughter and her physical and mental state is deteriorating weekly.
    Boris Johnson made her prospects much worse six months ago with ignorant comments, even lies, made to a Parliamentary committee.
    Six months is a long time in prison, and in the life of a child separated from her mother. Now he is game playing with regard to Iran, Trump and nuclear weapons as well as game playing over brexit, customs arrangements and remarks he made over the good Friday agreement.
    This is the Tory foreign minister.
    This is the politician for whom working out a way to get power comes before any collateral damage he causes.
    Boris 'picanniny 'Johnson is a racist evil Prince of Darkness Tory and by comparison Jeremy Corbyn is Nelson Mandela.
    People get taken in by his carefully studied public bluff and bluster, good old Boris they cry whilst Nazanin suffers month after month.
    When people vote Tory they are effectively validating that Bullenden bully, yet some tell themselves their Tory vote is a decent one because of Diane Abbott. FFS.
    Boris has a brother Jo Johnson who on Question Time says Boris doesn't have a racist bone in his body. It is expected for a brother to be loyal to a brother, but are the wider public really so unaware that as a result Boris Johnson is able to map out a route to power?
    At the moment Labour in power is theoretical, they are not in a position to do any harm or any good. Johnson is in power, the harm he causes is a matter of record, has he done any good? Has he buggery!

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    Thought this thread had closed.
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    Thought this thread had closed.

    Thanks to the occasional bump from people commenting on the thread itself, it's staying firmly open. So, you know, well done!
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    I see Heidi Alexander is calling it a day as a Labour MP. She will be a bit of a loss to the anti-Brexit cause. Be interesting to see who Labour put up to replace her.
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    By election in my constituency.
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    Thought this thread had closed.

    Evening mate
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    Thought this thread had closed.

    Evening mate
    Evening see some have come out of hibernation again...
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    Most importantly, the Lords have passed an amendment to suggest that a government objective should be to stay in the EEA - the SM and CU. Naturally the government will want to overturn this in the commons but there is no natural majority for this.

    If Corbyn graciously caves into the 87% of Labour members who support this path then the onus falls on the Tory rebels.

    Tic toc as this requires to be resolved by October. Some say it suits May to be pushed into a soft Brexit? Time will tell.
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    Most importantly, the Lords have passed an amendment to suggest that a government objective should be to stay in the EEA - the SM and CU. Naturally the government will want to overturn this in the commons but there is no natural majority for this.

    If Corbyn graciously caves into the 87% of Labour members who support this path then the onus falls on the Tory rebels.

    Tic toc as this requires to be resolved by October. Some say it suits May to be pushed into a soft Brexit? Time will tell.

    Theresa May never wanted to leave the EU at all, nor did a majority of the Cabinet or Tory MPs, they will not need a lot of pushing.
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    Southbank said:

    Most importantly, the Lords have passed an amendment to suggest that a government objective should be to stay in the EEA - the SM and CU. Naturally the government will want to overturn this in the commons but there is no natural majority for this.

    If Corbyn graciously caves into the 87% of Labour members who support this path then the onus falls on the Tory rebels.

    Tic toc as this requires to be resolved by October. Some say it suits May to be pushed into a soft Brexit? Time will tell.

    Theresa May never wanted to leave the EU at all, nor did a majority of the Cabinet or Tory MPs, they will not need a lot of pushing.
    Will the Tories betray the ©'will of the people'?
    No they won't because no fecker knows what the will of the people is in the first place.
    Brexit doesn't mean brexit, it seems to mean floundering around in Tory manufactured effluent which is topped up by racist morons.
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    Can someone advise what happens first. End of transitional arrangement or next general election?
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    Can someone advise what happens first. End of transitional arrangement or next general election?

    That, my friend, is all part of this high stakes game of poker. Forget the rabid press and one off comments from certain players. The only thing which is certain is that there will be a fracture if the government jumps one way or t'other.

    In the meantime GDP growth and net migration slow and we wait to see if there will be an "event" or a noticeable shift in the polls.

    For what it's worth, my prediction is that perspectives will shift in 12 months after we have left. And that is when more light will be shed on your question. Can the government outlast the transition? Or perhaps extend it?

    Labour have committed to remaining in a Customs Union but their voice is not clearly heard. We approach the time when perhaps Her Majesty's opposition need to be louder... on Windrush, Grenfell, housing and ordinary peoples jobs and incomes?
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    Thought this thread had closed.

    Evening mate
    Evening see some have come out of hibernation again...
    We are not hibernating, Chips me old mate. Some of us are working hard to ensure you don't end up with Johnson as your PM. Operating losses at the Olympic Stadium of £120m by 2025? how does that sound? ...may not be enough on its own, but all adds to the charge-sheet headed "towering incompetence". I know you don't want Johnson as your PM, so I'm happy to work on your behalf towards this goal. I'm nice like that. Anyway, back to work...

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    I "enjoy" (in the sense that I find their Irish Times articles informative and convincing) reading Cliff Taylor and Chris Johns' views of where things are heading with regard to trade, and each have produced articles that have been worth reading this week.

    I freely admit that, when I read what they are writing, it largely chimes with what I believe to be the case, so there may be an element of echo chamber going on - but, until such a time as the pro-Brexit camp can provide detail of how they can make things work, not just pious hopes or wilfully ignoring the processes by which international trade is carried out (and the latest offering from Policy Exchange really doesn't help that cause), this is unlikely to change.

    Of course, the impact of Brexit will not only be felt in terms of trade, but trade is at least more easily measured than other, more emotional or philosophical "collateral damage".

    https://irishtimes.com/business/economy/brexit-is-like-quantum-mechanics-nobody-understands-it-1.3485902

    https://irishtimes.com/business/economy/cliff-taylor-brexit-ditches-business-and-economic-interests-1.3488351

    The Quantum Mechanics article is a really good one.
    I can envisage the Sun reprinting it in full on it's front page.
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    Here's another Irish voice, the headline is a work of genius:

    blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/05/09/theresa-may-is-caught-between-the-devil-and-the-dup/
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    I "enjoy" (in the sense that I find their Irish Times articles informative and convincing) reading Cliff Taylor and Chris Johns' views of where things are heading with regard to trade, and each have produced articles that have been worth reading this week.

    I freely admit that, when I read what they are writing, it largely chimes with what I believe to be the case, so there may be an element of echo chamber going on - but, until such a time as the pro-Brexit camp can provide detail of how they can make things work, not just pious hopes or wilfully ignoring the processes by which international trade is carried out (and the latest offering from Policy Exchange really doesn't help that cause), this is unlikely to change.

    Of course, the impact of Brexit will not only be felt in terms of trade, but trade is at least more easily measured than other, more emotional or philosophical "collateral damage".

    https://irishtimes.com/business/economy/brexit-is-like-quantum-mechanics-nobody-understands-it-1.3485902

    https://irishtimes.com/business/economy/cliff-taylor-brexit-ditches-business-and-economic-interests-1.3488351

    You always make interesting points.

    However, they are fatally undone, as are your quoted articles, because they come form a pro-EU position.

    In other words, there is no will to make Brexit work despite the technical difficulties, only a constant emphasis on the problems.

    It would be more helpful if you took another position, which would be to imagine you are pro-Brexit and come up with a solution to the border problem, assuming Brexit goes ahead, on the basis that every problem has a solution (and I do not mean staying in the EU)

    Or would be that too much for you to imagine? Or do you have tou much stake in the status quo?
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    Southbank said:

    I "enjoy" (in the sense that I find their Irish Times articles informative and convincing) reading Cliff Taylor and Chris Johns' views of where things are heading with regard to trade, and each have produced articles that have been worth reading this week.

    I freely admit that, when I read what they are writing, it largely chimes with what I believe to be the case, so there may be an element of echo chamber going on - but, until such a time as the pro-Brexit camp can provide detail of how they can make things work, not just pious hopes or wilfully ignoring the processes by which international trade is carried out (and the latest offering from Policy Exchange really doesn't help that cause), this is unlikely to change.

    Of course, the impact of Brexit will not only be felt in terms of trade, but trade is at least more easily measured than other, more emotional or philosophical "collateral damage".

    https://irishtimes.com/business/economy/brexit-is-like-quantum-mechanics-nobody-understands-it-1.3485902

    https://irishtimes.com/business/economy/cliff-taylor-brexit-ditches-business-and-economic-interests-1.3488351

    You always make interesting points.

    However, they are fatally undone, as are your quoted articles, because they come form a pro-EU position.

    In other words, there is no will to make Brexit work despite the technical difficulties, only a constant emphasis on the problems.

    It would be more helpful if you took another position, which would be to imagine you are pro-Brexit and come up with a solution to the border problem, assuming Brexit goes ahead, on the basis that every problem has a solution (and I do not mean staying in the EU)

    Or would be that too much for you to imagine? Or do you have tou much stake in the status quo?
    May I help.
    One solution could be razor wire, mines, towers and machine gun nests along the entire length of the border and at each crossing point. It may be problematic but there it is, a suggestion.
    Your turn.
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    Here's another Irish voice, the headline is a work of genius:

    blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/05/09/theresa-may-is-caught-between-the-devil-and-the-dup/

    Who is Arlene working for? As the people of Northern Ireland voted to remain.
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    Here's another Irish voice, the headline is a work of genius:

    blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/05/09/theresa-may-is-caught-between-the-devil-and-the-dup/

    Who is Arlene working for? As the people of Northern Ireland voted to remain.
    I've been generally moving towards the belief that she, and the DUP, are seeking to replicate the outcome of the Carson/Craig/UVF campaign around the Solemn League and Covenant, to make sure that Northern Ireland remains resolutely British (as they define the term). I am actually beginning to think that they want the Good Friday Agreement to fail.

    I do actually think that they are terrified of the demographics, and see this as the last hurrah for Unionist political dominance.

    That said, however, there is plenty of evidence, even if only from the DUP political representatives, that there is a strain within the Party that fails to recognise reality (as well as marriage equality, evolution and the like).

    I would not want to suggest that they are thick, but plenty of them are ignorant...
This discussion has been closed.

Roland Out Forever!