Brexiters best hold back on booking that bargain holiday in Benidorm next year.
This bits interesting...
"A spokeswoman for the travel trade organisation Abta said: “Package holidays will continue to be covered by regulations which give holidaymakers the right to an alternative holiday, if available, or a refund in the event of changes caused by extraordinary circumstances.”
Whilst this is the case now I don't see how she can currently make any guarantees as to what the situation will be in 13 months time. We might find that a government minister decides on Day 1 to repeal any protection afforded by the Package Travel Directive. Unlikely immediately agreed but currently nothing to stop it from what I can see.
These protections are of course an example of big business ruling the roost over consumers that some on here have convinced themselves is happening...
Everything will be business as usual as long as the UK and EU agree to a transition deal which will essentially maintain the status quo. However that will not be on offer if the UK is not clear about what it wants and how that impacts the Irish border. Davis and Johnson think they are being clever by saying one thing to Dublin and Brussels and then another to the domestic audience but it's just wasting time.
Interesting article from Spain about the number of Brits leaving here and moving back to the UK. There are many reasons for the numbers going down, including changes to how town halls register EU citizens, but it does talk about the worries that many Brits have in Spain particularly about healthcare and the value of their British pension. I have also seen a lot of people move to or plan to move back to the UK because of uncertainty, but there have been also quite a lot of younger Brits moving here recently saying how disappointed they are about Brexit. A complex scenario of course, but thought a view from abroad might be interesting for some on here.
The new poll also asked the public what it thinks the best situation would be for Britain’s economy five to ten years after Brexit – whether it is maintaining free trade with the European Union, even if that means Britain won’t be able to negotiate its own trade deals with countries outside the EU, or Britain negotiating its own trade deals with countries outside the European Union, even if that means there will be barriers to trade with the EU. Half (49%) say that Britain being able to negotiate its own free trade deals with countries outside the EU would be best while 36% say maintaining free trade with the EU.
The new poll also asked the public what it thinks the best situation would be for Britain’s economy five to ten years after Brexit – whether it is maintaining free trade with the European Union, even if that means Britain won’t be able to negotiate its own trade deals with countries outside the EU, or Britain negotiating its own trade deals with countries outside the European Union, even if that means there will be barriers to trade with the EU. Half (49%) say that Britain being able to negotiate its own free trade deals with countries outside the EU would be best while 36% say maintaining free trade with the EU.
It's like asking someone when they stopped beating their wife.
The question being asked, and how it is framed, will determine the answer provided.
If IPSOS asked the question and included the likely outcomes for economic growth identified by the vast majority of economic forecasts, then the numbers might mean something. Is "able to negotiate your own trade deals, with less leverage, and every indication of lower growth", likely to be believed to be better for the British economy?
The "be able to negotiate" statement, without qualification, included in the framing is attractive (in terms of wording).
I might, if asked, say that I would like to be my own boss in five to ten years, all things being equal, but I'd be less inclined todo so, if I was aware that that meant, in all likelihood, reduced income, more personal debt, and much more uncertainty.
[Edit} PS It is also worth pointing out that the IPSOS website mentions how talks have moved on to Phase 2, as part of the suggestion for why the polls indicate increased satisfaction with the Government's approach to Brexit - this is, ever so slightly, jumping the gun. It will not be until the European Council meeting next week, or even June (if the agreements in the December paper are less agreed than they appeared at the time), before the talks move to Phase 2.
PPS As a representative sample of public opinion, this may be valid, but, speaking as someone who worries that, in the UK media, agreement in the Government seems to be considered agreement on the final terms of any agreements, I am not sure how well informed any of us are about the likely outcomes (my own view is at least partly shaped by reading media reports from elsewhere in the EU), and that this will skew the perceptions both of the current position and future outcomes within the sample group (and beyond).
The new poll also asked the public what it thinks the best situation would be for Britain’s economy five to ten years after Brexit – whether it is maintaining free trade with the European Union, even if that means Britain won’t be able to negotiate its own trade deals with countries outside the EU, or Britain negotiating its own trade deals with countries outside the European Union, even if that means there will be barriers to trade with the EU. Half (49%) say that Britain being able to negotiate its own free trade deals with countries outside the EU would be best while 36% say maintaining free trade with the EU.
Is that really the question they asked? If so it's wildly misleading, we are able to negotiate trade deals with countries outside of the European Union as part of the European Union.
The new poll also asked the public what it thinks the best situation would be for Britain’s economy five to ten years after Brexit – whether it is maintaining free trade with the European Union, even if that means Britain won’t be able to negotiate its own trade deals with countries outside the EU, or Britain negotiating its own trade deals with countries outside the European Union, even if that means there will be barriers to trade with the EU. Half (49%) say that Britain being able to negotiate its own free trade deals with countries outside the EU would be best while 36% say maintaining free trade with the EU.
Well they might have well have asked, 'did you vote' for Brexot. Personally I'd rather see the opinions of qualified economists and professionals, than a bunch of people, most of whom, know no more than me.
The new poll also asked the public what it thinks the best situation would be for Britain’s economy five to ten years after Brexit – whether it is maintaining free trade with the European Union, even if that means Britain won’t be able to negotiate its own trade deals with countries outside the EU, or Britain negotiating its own trade deals with countries outside the European Union, even if that means there will be barriers to trade with the EU. Half (49%) say that Britain being able to negotiate its own free trade deals with countries outside the EU would be best while 36% say maintaining free trade with the EU.
The new poll also asked the public what it thinks the best situation would be for Britain’s economy five to ten years after Brexit – whether it is maintaining free trade with the European Union, even if that means Britain won’t be able to negotiate its own trade deals with countries outside the EU, or Britain negotiating its own trade deals with countries outside the European Union, even if that means there will be barriers to trade with the EU. Half (49%) say that Britain being able to negotiate its own free trade deals with countries outside the EU would be best while 36% say maintaining free trade with the EU.
Interesting article from Spain about the number of Brits leaving here and moving back to the UK. There are many reasons for the numbers going down, including changes to how town halls register EU citizens, but it does talk about the worries that many Brits have in Spain particularly about healthcare and the value of their British pension. I have also seen a lot of people move to or plan to move back to the UK because of uncertainty, but there have been also quite a lot of younger Brits moving here recently saying how disappointed they are about Brexit. A complex scenario of course, but thought a view from abroad might be interesting for some on here.
Cheers for this @CharltonMadrid. Some interesting stuff in the various articles. I have quite a few Brit friends and acquaintances in a semi rural village in Andalusia, where I spend as much time as I can. The make up of the British contingent in the village has certainly changed over the last few years. Not so many families anymore and now mainly retired folk or part-timers like me. The property crash was a major blow which resulted in what work opportunities there were largely disappearing. Latterly the pound bombing after the Brexit vote has caused a lot of discomfort. Day to day costs have increased leaving much less disposable income as outlined in the article. The future of health care coverage will be the deciding factor for many as to whether they stay or not. Mind you, with houses difficult to sell most could find themselves between a rock and a hard place.
People's lives/retirements turned upside down. All for what?
Let's hope common sense prevails and something is worked out.
I would urge everyone to get stuck into the Guardian/Observer scoop on Cambridge Analytica. It is not fundamentally a Brexit related story, it is far more about Trump, but it is essential for an understanding of how our personal data can be manipulated to in turn manipulate elections. And it leaves Facebook with some pretty fundamental questions to answer after, the Guardian brushed off its threat of legal action.
It was utterly disgraceful that Andrew Marr in his paper round-up implied that the story is too complicated to understand. It is not. It is not a short read, but if you have any interest in or knowledge of media or marketing communications, it is both illuminating and shocking. I like Marr's on-screen persona, but sometimes he needs to have a word with himself.
Are there seriously any people in the known universe, or even going through the black holes into an unknown universe, who dont think Boris Johnson is a complete and utter c*nt?
Are there seriously any people in the known universe, or even going through the black holes into an unknown universe, who dont think Boris Johnson is a complete and utter c*nt?
They will be the ones who (quite rightly) diss me for my missing apostrophe. I can live with that because at least I haven't made life hellish for a UK woman imprisoned in Iran.
Are there seriously any people in the known universe, or even going through the black holes into an unknown universe, who dont think Boris Johnson is a complete and utter c*nt?
Seth. It wasn’t too long ago that you were using the word “blimmin” as an expletive. You’ve come a long way very quickly. ;0)
Are there seriously any people in the known universe, or even going through the black holes into an unknown universe, who dont think Boris Johnson is a complete and utter c*nt?
Seth. It wasn’t too long ago that you were using the word “blimmin” as an expletive. You’ve come a long way very quickly. ;0)
Yes, in my defence a sneaky use of an asterisk. However simply put I hate the man utterly, and if I knew who they were would hate those who voted for him (Tories it turns out). Not healthy to hate all Tory voters, and it is a demon I have to wrestle with, but right now, today, I see Tory and Brexit voters as giving licence to duplicitous, exploitative, racist, self serving evil people.
I would urge everyone to get stuck into the Guardian/Observer scoop on Cambridge Analytica. It is not fundamentally a Brexit related story, it is far more about Trump, but it is essential for an understanding of how our personal data can be manipulated to in turn manipulate elections. And it leaves Facebook with some pretty fundamental questions to answer after, the Guardian brushed off its threat of legal action.
It was utterly disgraceful that Andrew Marr in his paper round-up implied that the story is too complicated to understand. It is not. It is not a short read, but if you have any interest in or knowledge of media or marketing communications, it is both illuminating and shocking. I like Marr's on-screen persona, but sometimes he needs to have a word with himself.
For those interested in Brexit and Cambridge Analytica just google that combination and you will find some very interesting material.
It's alleged they played a part in Brexit as well as Trump and that there is a string of companies and transactions across the English speaking world. And various individuals moving between CA, vote.leave and a Canadian based Psyops specialist.
Many on here might not be natural Corbynistas but one reading of the political landscape and the technologies involved is that people have to choose a side!
Incidentally the new GDPR regulatory framework might have an impact on the CA model. 50 million voters did not give their data to Facebook in order for an Alt-right collaboration to target them with politically "adjusted" messages.
For those who doubt how this work can make a difference one simply has to look at CASTrust which used a simplified version of psychographics and data modelling to rapidly build market share amongst CAFC fans. And we are talking rapid as the website went from 2% use to 25% in just over a year.
This is today, it is now. And the reason that Labour has a shout is because Momentum and others are using social media in a similar fashion. In other words this is the way forwards for the 21st Century and the technology, the techniques and the smartphones aren't going away.
Comments
https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/03/07/inenglish/1520417174_976942.html
https://theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/16/eu-diplomats-tell-may-to-back-down-over-northern-ireland
https://theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/16/gibraltar-warns-it-could-rescind-citizens-rights-if-spain-uses-veto-on-brexit-deal
https://irishtimes.com/business/economy/no-techical-solution-for-a-soft-border-post-brexit-report-finds-1.3429407
https://irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/hopes-for-eu-backing-on-brexit-transition-plan-may-be-premature-1.3428395
While there is also debate in Ireland about how agribusiness will deal with the outcomes of Brexit.
https://irishtimes.com/business/economy/john-fitzgerald-brexit-prospects-are-bleak-for-beef-producers-1.3428544
The new poll also asked the public what it thinks the best situation would be for Britain’s economy five to ten years after Brexit – whether it is maintaining free trade with the European Union, even if that means Britain won’t be able to negotiate its own trade deals with countries outside the EU, or Britain negotiating its own trade deals with countries outside the European Union, even if that means there will be barriers to trade with the EU. Half (49%) say that Britain being able to negotiate its own free trade deals with countries outside the EU would be best while 36% say maintaining free trade with the EU.
What’s best for Britain's economy after Brexit?
https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/britains-economy-after-brexit.jpg
It's like asking someone when they stopped beating their wife.
The question being asked, and how it is framed, will determine the answer provided.
If IPSOS asked the question and included the likely outcomes for economic growth identified by the vast majority of economic forecasts, then the numbers might mean something. Is "able to negotiate your own trade deals, with less leverage, and every indication of lower growth", likely to be believed to be better for the British economy?
The "be able to negotiate" statement, without qualification, included in the framing is attractive (in terms of wording).
I might, if asked, say that I would like to be my own boss in five to ten years, all things being equal, but I'd be less inclined todo so, if I was aware that that meant, in all likelihood, reduced income, more personal debt, and much more uncertainty.
[Edit} PS It is also worth pointing out that the IPSOS website mentions how talks have moved on to Phase 2, as part of the suggestion for why the polls indicate increased satisfaction with the Government's approach to Brexit - this is, ever so slightly, jumping the gun. It will not be until the European Council meeting next week, or even June (if the agreements in the December paper are less agreed than they appeared at the time), before the talks move to Phase 2.
PPS As a representative sample of public opinion, this may be valid, but, speaking as someone who worries that, in the UK media, agreement in the Government seems to be considered agreement on the final terms of any agreements, I am not sure how well informed any of us are about the likely outcomes (my own view is at least partly shaped by reading media reports from elsewhere in the EU), and that this will skew the perceptions both of the current position and future outcomes within the sample group (and beyond).
http://uk.businessinsider.com/theresa-may-government-planning-open-borders-in-no-deal-brexit-2018-3?utm_content=buffer36ad3&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer-biuk
People's lives/retirements turned upside down. All for what?
Let's hope common sense prevails and something is worked out.
https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/unlikely-that-vladimir-putin-behind-skripal-poisoning-1.3425736
It was utterly disgraceful that Andrew Marr in his paper round-up implied that the story is too complicated to understand. It is not. It is not a short read, but if you have any interest in or knowledge of media or marketing communications, it is both illuminating and shocking. I like Marr's on-screen persona, but sometimes he needs to have a word with himself.
I can live with that because at least I haven't made life hellish for a UK woman imprisoned in Iran.
It's alleged they played a part in Brexit as well as Trump and that there is a string of companies and transactions across the English speaking world. And various individuals moving between CA, vote.leave and a Canadian based Psyops specialist.
Many on here might not be natural Corbynistas but one reading of the political landscape and the technologies involved is that people have to choose a side!
Incidentally the new GDPR regulatory framework might have an impact on the CA model. 50 million voters did not give their data to Facebook in order for an Alt-right collaboration to target them with politically "adjusted" messages.
For those who doubt how this work can make a difference one simply has to look at CASTrust which used a simplified version of psychographics and data modelling to rapidly build market share amongst CAFC fans. And we are talking rapid as the website went from 2% use to 25% in just over a year.
This is today, it is now. And the reason that Labour has a shout is because Momentum and others are using social media in a similar fashion. In other words this is the way forwards for the 21st Century and the technology, the techniques and the smartphones aren't going away.