Attention: Please take a moment to consider our terms and conditions before posting.

We Are NOT Safe! Projected Final Table Standings Based on Current Form

edited March 2017 in General Charlton
Six teams below us?
Three of four relegation spots already set in stone?
One relegation spot left?

We must be safe, right? Wrong. Not even close.

CAFC and those below us have 7-10 matches left. If all teams continue in current form of their last 7-10 to finish out the season, this is what the final Table will look like.

Below, I show each club and their projected final position, their current points as of the end of 3/19, current form (last 7-10 results (wins-draws-losses)) depending on how many they have left, and final projected table points if they continue.

Prepare yourself.... it's scary.

Final Pos....Current Pts..... Form Proj......Final Points
15. Bury.........45..................4-2-1.............59
16. MK Dons..47..................2-3-3.............56
17. Gillingh....45.................3-1-3..............55
18. Oldham...44.................2-4-1...............54
19. Shrewsb..43.................3-2-3...............54
20. CHARLT...47................1-2-4...............52
------------------------------------------------------------------
21. Port V.......41................2-3-5................50
22. Swind.......36................2-1-4...............43
23. Chest.......33................1-3-3................39
24. Covent.....26.................1-1-6...............30

Some notes........

1. At this pace, if everyone stays on form, we will drop 5 places and miss relegation by just two points
2. Every team below us not already "doomed" is playing much better than us.
3. Five of the six teams below us fighting for the final drop-spot are within just 4 points of us in the table right now
4. Port Vale has 2 games in hand and potentially could be equal to us on those alone if they maintain form
5. Five of our last matches are against teams below us, so it's in our hands, win or lose
6. It might come down to our final match against Swindon Town at The Valley
7. We really need 2 wins and 1 tie (7 points) to feel safe given how others are playing

Sorry to add fear to the situation but we are nowhere near safe and in fact are in a lot more danger than we are admitting.
«1345

Comments

  • I hope you are right! I am a worry wort.
  • edited March 2017

    1 tie?

    two wins gives us six points and still would allow Vale to equal us if they exceed their form by one win. A tie (I meant "draw", sorry) gives us the extra nudge.
  • edited March 2017
    I agree with the OP. Bury, Oldham & Shrewsbury, of the relegation candidates are in much better form than us.
    In fact we've just lost to all 3 !

    MKD are doing slightly better & even Port Vale have won 2 recent home games. The Gills are performing poorly.

    I've said for a long time that 50 points will get you relegated.

    As we have the best goal difference, I reckon we could be ok with 52 and should be ok with 53 points.

    Our saving grace is having to still play the bottom 3 plus The Gills & MKD.

    Our other 2 games are against Peterboro who are in poor form & Southend.

    We will be ok if Robinson sticks with 4-4-2 and the players put in the same amount of effort as they have in the last few games. If they don't perform anything could happen.

    I reckon we'll stay up, but I've also backed us to get relegated at 40/1.
  • we aren't going down
  • Our last games have been against decent opposition, our next ones are not. We are safe but it is still a pathetically bad season
  • Sponsored links:


  • a very piss poor season but don't think we will go down, and that's not because of us being good its because of the other teams around us short comings.

    major changes are needed for next season, probably wont happen and i think it will be of the same as this season.
  • think we will be safe........easily. Current form is not the only thing to consider,who you are playing is more important. A clubs current form might be ok as they might have played a load of poor sides & no good ones - Port Vale have still got to play the top 3 - we don't.
  • What is a worry that before we play again afew other teams could close the gap on us.This season is not over ,two wins should be enough for Charlton ,but lose to Gillingham and Swindon this could swing things the otherway.
  • Let us hope we have a run until the end of the season with a fit squad, unknown this season, even from the start, thanks to RD and KM mismanagement during the close season
  • Sponsored links:


  • We are on course to get 55 points based on the whole season.

    47 ÷ 39 x 46 = 55.435897

    But as we cannot get .435897 of a point let's call it 55 or 56 to be positive.
  • Mistakes have been made, we have learnt from them. We are building for the future and have backed Karl with a budget that is one of the highest in the league, this will be Karl's team and we have identified our targets early that will be persuaded in the summer. So judge us on our results. (Probably April 2017)

    Something like I'm expecting if they don't bugger off in the next few weeks.
  • I had a bash at this 5 games ago:

    http://forum.charltonlife.com/discussion/77046/in-10-games-time-based-on-form-over-the-last-5-games#latest

    Updating mine, 5 games on, and using the last 5 to predict the next 5:

    Coventry City - W0 D1 L4 - current points total 26 - Projected points total= 27
    Chesterfield - W1 D2 L2 - current point total 33 - Projected points total = 38
    Port Vale - W2 D1 L2 - current points total 41 - Projected points total= 48
    Swindon Town - W1 D0 L4 - current points total 36 - Projected points total = 39
    Oldham - W2 D2 L1 - current points total 44 - Projected points total = 52
    Gillingham - W2 D0 L3 - current points total 45 - Projected points total = 51
    Bury - W2 D2 L1 - current points total 45 - Projected points total = 53
    Northampton W3 D0 L2 - current points total 49 - Projected points total = 58
    Shrewsbury W1 D2 L2 - current points total 43 - Projected points total = 48
    MK Dons W1 D2 LD - current points total 47 - Projected points total = 52
    Charlton W1 D2 L2 - current points total 47 - Projected points total = 52


    Which would result in a table that looks like this with two games left:


    14 Northampton 58
    15 Bury 53
    16 Charlton 52
    17 MK Dons 52
    18 Oldham 52
    19 Gillingham 51
    20 Shrewsbury 48
    21 Port Vale 48
    22 Swindon 39
    23 Chesterfield 38
    24 Coventry 27

    Bearing in mind that Port Vale have two games in hand at the moment, and Shrewsbury and MK Dons have one, this looks like Gillingham may be dark horses to take the final relegation spot. Our game against Gillingham looks like a must-win, or at the very least, must not lose.
  • I had a bash at this 5 games ago:

    http://forum.charltonlife.com/discussion/77046/in-10-games-time-based-on-form-over-the-last-5-games#latest

    Updating mine, 5 games on, and using the last 5 to predict the next 5:

    Coventry City - W0 D1 L4 - current points total 26 - Projected points total= 27
    Chesterfield - W1 D2 L2 - current point total 33 - Projected points total = 38
    Port Vale - W2 D1 L2 - current points total 41 - Projected points total= 48
    Swindon Town - W1 D0 L4 - current points total 36 - Projected points total = 39
    Oldham - W2 D2 L1 - current points total 44 - Projected points total = 52
    Gillingham - W2 D0 L3 - current points total 45 - Projected points total = 51
    Bury - W2 D2 L1 - current points total 45 - Projected points total = 53
    Northampton W3 D0 L2 - current points total 49 - Projected points total = 58
    Shrewsbury W1 D2 L2 - current points total 43 - Projected points total = 48
    MK Dons W1 D2 LD - current points total 47 - Projected points total = 52
    Charlton W1 D2 L2 - current points total 47 - Projected points total = 52


    Which would result in a table that looks like this with two games left:


    14 Northampton 58
    15 Bury 53
    16 Charlton 52
    17 MK Dons 52
    18 Oldham 52
    19 Gillingham 51
    20 Shrewsbury 48
    21 Port Vale 48
    22 Swindon 39
    23 Chesterfield 38
    24 Coventry 27

    Bearing in mind that Port Vale have two games in hand at the moment, and Shrewsbury and MK Dons have one, this looks like Gillingham may be dark horses to take the final relegation spot. Our game against Gillingham looks like a must-win, or at the very least, must not lose.

    Therein lies the problem. Everything about this team and club says we will lose to Gillingham.

    Still think we will go down on the last day.
  • edited March 2017
    We have enough points in the bag already, which is lucky given our form under Robinson.

    The worry has to be if we continue to limp through to the end of this season, there's going to have to be a hell of a change over the summer, plus Robinson's going to have to read of lots of books on management, if we are to be looking for promotion next year.
  • mogodon said:

    We have enough points in the bag already, which is lucky given our form under Robinson.

    Are you suggesting that we have enough points to stay up if we lose all our remaining games ? Bonkers, if you mean what you said.
  • One win in 12 and barely a few draws in that time against sides form all parts of the division points to a team in terminal decline. Only Coventry accumulate points more slowly. Charlton's survival relies as much on teams currently below us taking points off each other with possibly goal difference providing the final cushion. Spells of 20 or 30 minutes looking cohesive and effective going forward will not bring about sufficient positive results, the abiding defensive inadequacy will always undermine and negate the few positives. One or two better players may return but other injuries remain inevitable. The fat scouse gobshite hasn't shown anything to suggest that even with a stronger squad to choose from he can pull together a string of adequate performances and he bears some of the responsibility for Charlton's parlous position and withering momentum.
    I hope I'm wrong of course, but rational analysis provides no cause for optimism. Charlton's survival is in its own hands but those hands are really shaky, covered in grease and connected to very weak wrists indeed.
    Ultimately finishing 20th is no different from 15th, survival is all that matters. If we start that final fixture against Swindon 3 points or more above 21st place I'll eat my hat.

    Keep smilin'
  • It would be an absolute disaster if we ended up in League Two, a lot of past 'big' clubs like Portsmouth and Blackpool have been stuck down there, you wouldn't even be able to compare us to them because they both went down due to financial problems and point deductions, I think we pick up too many draws to go down but more stranger things have happened in football, if we did go down it would be solely due to the ownership, lack of investment, managerial circus, just like last season.
  • Charlton's survival is in its own hands but those hands are really shaky, covered in grease and connected to very weak wrists indeed.
    Lovely comment by Stigthundercock, wish I'd said it!
  • Tonight - Coventry City v Port Vale 19:45

    Also _
    Oxford United v Bolton Wanderers 19:45 on Sky
    Rochdale v Millwall 19:45
Sign In or Register to comment.

Roland Out Forever!