I suspect it's still mathematically possible for us to stay up if we lose the last five games and we will, almost certainly, pick up a couple more points - probably even a win.
It's interesting - you could say exciting, but I think that 40-1 is probably right. When was the last time a 40-1 or higher happened over such a short period of time?
I suspect it's still mathematically possible for us to stay up if we lose the last five games and we will, almost certainly, pick up a couple more points - probably even a win.
It's interesting - you could say exciting, but I think that 40-1 is probably right. When was the last time a 40-1 or higher happened over such a short period of time?
I'll have some of what you are on..... Players have given up. We are light years away from winning a football match. Bulk of those players last night are viewing an upcoming relegation as their way our of this place....
I'll confess I lumped 50 dollars pre season on relegation returning 1250 bucks. I bet another 75 quid this morning returning over 3 grand. And when I collect over 4 thousand pounds I won't have a hint of regret. It'll pay to fly my mum and sister to Australia for a holiday. I'm betting against RD's management, not CAFC. I'd never do it with previous owners or managers.
We need about 3-5 points to be safe and I don't see us getting 3-5 draws between now and the end.
I am waiting for the Swindon result today and then redoing my original projections.
I can say that if Swindon wins their third straight today and beats Sheffield, then we are in serious doo doo. We play them the last match of the season and the whole enchilada could come down to that match.
Swindon are not playing today. Only Sheffield United, Coventry, Oxford and Fleetwood are.
Trying to be more positive this morning, which isn't easy.
Between us and the drop are Swindon, Shrewsbury, Port Vale, Gillingham, Oldham and Bury.
On the basis we still have to play Swindon, Port Vale and Gillingham (& Chesterfield but discounting that as effecting anything, they are as good as down or will be once we play them) if we lose to Swindon & Port Vale I think we have a high chance of relegation, likely on the last day as they'd only need another win or a couple of draws to over take us.
Shrewsbury & Swindon other than against us aren't playing anyone in the bottom 9 though. Port Vale have a tuff run in, their game in hand could be vital for them.
Robinson needs to set up defensively now and accept a couple of draws and maybe nick a win, 5 at the back if necessary of Solly, Tex, Pearce, Bauer and Chicksen.
If he has to go for a win then Chesterfield away is probably the place to do it as nothing to lose against them and maybe Coventry.
Here is the updated data through this afternoon.....
First, none of the teams above us in the table are at risk. All are at least 4 points above us now and minimum 8 from relegation zone. We are currently 16th, 4 points from the drop with 5 matches left.
Chesterfield and Coventry are doomed. Nothing can save them.
This leaves 2 relegation spots and 7 teams chasing them, all within 5 points of each other with 5-6 matches to play. It's a crap shoot, especially when we are playing like crap. The 30-1 and 40-1 odds against our drop are seriously mis-priced.
If all teams finish out the season in current form, here is the final table. Be afraid... be very afraid.
Final Pos....Team....Matches left.... form (w-d-l)... added pts... final points 16................Bury..........5...................1-3-1.................6................52 17................PortV.........6...................2-1-3.................7...............52 18................Old Ath......5..................1-3-1.................6................51 19................CAFC........5...................0-2-3.................2...............49 20...............Swind.........5...................2-0-3.................6...............48 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 21...............Gillingh......5..................1-0-4..................3...............48 22...............Shrews......5..................0-1-4...................1..............44 23...............Cov............5..................2-0-3...................6..............38 24...............Chester......5..................0-2-3...................2..............36
We would miss the drop by 1 point and place 19th, one point ahead of Swindon. Swindon survives on goal differential over Gillingham. If we finish 0-1-4 and only get 48 points, we would actually also stay up based on goal differential.
One win, 3 points, and the odds are good we stay up.
But my nightmare scenario mentioned in my first post is still possible... that Swindon need a win in their last match, at CAFC, to stay up, and we are the club standing in their way, all the while in the worst form we maybe have ever had and needing a result ourselves.
I would not like our chances that day, with a protest crowd in the stands and a dead man walking as manager.
I've been trying to spot the relegation six-pointers. The odd thing is that, if you ignore Coventry and Chesterfield, the only 6-pointers seem to be us at home to Gills on 17/4 and at home to Swindon on the last day (30/4).
Bury, Oldham, Gills and Port Vale all have mostly tough-looking run-ins. Swindon and Shrewsbury appear to have easier run-ins, with more mid-table opposition.
Here is the updated data through this afternoon.....
First, none of the teams above us in the table are at risk. All are at least 4 points above us now and minimum 8 from relegation zone. We are currently 16th, 4 points from the drop with 5 matches left.
Chesterfield and Coventry are doomed. Nothing can save them.
This leaves 2 relegation spots and 7 teams chasing them, all within 5 points of each other with 5-6 matches to play. It's a crap shoot, especially when we are playing like crap. The 30-1 and 40-1 odds against our drop are seriously mis-priced.
If all teams finish out the season in current form, here is the final table. Be afraid... be very afraid.
Final Pos....Team....Matches left.... form (w-d-l)... added pts... final points 16................Bury..........5...................1-3-1.................6................52 17................PortV.........6...................2-1-3.................7...............52 18................Old Ath......5..................1-3-1.................6................51 19................CAFC........5...................0-2-3.................2...............49 20...............Swind.........5...................2-0-3.................6...............48 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 21...............Gillingh......5..................1-0-4..................3...............48 22...............Shrews......5..................0-1-4...................1..............44 23...............Cov............5..................2-0-3...................6..............38 24...............Chester......5..................0-2-3...................2..............36
We would miss the drop by 1 point and place 19th, one point ahead of Swindon. Swindon survives on goal differential over Gillingham. If we finish 0-1-4 and only get 48 points, we would actually also stay up based on goal differential.
One win, 3 points, and the odds are good we stay up.
But my nightmare scenario mentioned in my first post is still possible... that Swindon need a win in their last match, at CAFC, to stay up, and we are the club standing in their way, all the while in the worst form we maybe have ever had and needing a result ourselves.
I would not like our chances that day, with a protest crowd in the stands and a dead man walking as manager.
Have you looked at the games they have to play? Just using the last five games to extrapolate is ridiculous. We have to play 4 of the bottom 5 before the end of the season. You can't compare that to our last five games which included Bradford and Sheff Utd. Bury, who you have as winning one and drawing three have to play Bradford, Rochdale, Bolton and Southend as well as Northampton and in their last 12 games they have managed five wins. They have beaten us, Bristol Rovers and three of the teams we have to play - the bottom three.
I don't want to be rude, but you don't seem to have a decent understanding of stats relative to sample sizes. Which is probably why you were not able to differentiate between the odds of five teams all catching us in five games, including one of them having to turn over a four point and sixteen goal difference disadvantage, and Leicester's odds of winning the League in August 2016. With five games to go Leicester were seven points clear and the bookies had stopped taking bets on them!
If you want to know some stats that are based on more than a few weeks, in the last ten years the average number of points that the team that finished 4th bottom has had, has been 47.5. In only five of those ten years has 47 points definitely meant relegation; in only three seasons has 48 meant relegation (so one draw is all we would need); in only two seasons has 49 points been needed and 50 points (with goal differences of -18 and -16) is the maximum that a team being relegated has achieved.
On that basis one win in five or three draws should be enough - probably less. Remember we have to play Swindon, Chesterfield and Coventry who have managed to win 24 of their 119 games this season, and Gillingham have managed 11 wins in 40. If we can't scrape three or four points from those games then the bookies deserve to pay out at 40-1 but I find it unlikely that we will need 50 points and I also find it unlikely that we won't get them.
Also remember that on the last day of the season we play Swindon with Ajose missing who is their joint top scorer having played less than half the minutes that Obika has.
I think you are being a little dramatic. Sure we are not playing well, but I don't think betting on us to go down is free money.
Looks like a repeat of 1971-72 to me - desperately bad set of results by a squad that was easily good enough to do quite well, but for whatever reason threw it all away. Average manager too then, as well.
But is Robinson even average?
Has he lost the dressing room by being too gobby with players who - unlike him - have played at full international and top flight level?
Comments
16 Bury -12 52
17 Port Vale -20 52
18 Oldham -17 51
19 Charlton -6 49
20 Swindon -19 48
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R21 Gillingham -26 48
R22 Shrewsbury -23 44
It's interesting - you could say exciting, but I think that 40-1 is probably right. When was the last time a 40-1 or higher happened over such a short period of time?
I'm betting against RD's management, not CAFC. I'd never do it with previous owners or managers.
First, none of the teams above us in the table are at risk. All are at least 4 points above us now and minimum 8 from relegation zone. We are currently 16th, 4 points from the drop with 5 matches left.
Chesterfield and Coventry are doomed. Nothing can save them.
This leaves 2 relegation spots and 7 teams chasing them, all within 5 points of each other with 5-6 matches to play. It's a crap shoot, especially when we are playing like crap. The 30-1 and 40-1 odds against our drop are seriously mis-priced.
If all teams finish out the season in current form, here is the final table. Be afraid... be very afraid.
Final Pos....Team....Matches left.... form (w-d-l)... added pts... final points
16................Bury..........5...................1-3-1.................6................52
17................PortV.........6...................2-1-3.................7...............52
18................Old Ath......5..................1-3-1.................6................51
19................CAFC........5...................0-2-3.................2...............49
20...............Swind.........5...................2-0-3.................6...............48
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21...............Gillingh......5..................1-0-4..................3...............48
22...............Shrews......5..................0-1-4...................1..............44
23...............Cov............5..................2-0-3...................6..............38
24...............Chester......5..................0-2-3...................2..............36
We would miss the drop by 1 point and place 19th, one point ahead of Swindon. Swindon survives on goal differential over Gillingham. If we finish 0-1-4 and only get 48 points, we would actually also stay up based on goal differential.
One win, 3 points, and the odds are good we stay up.
But my nightmare scenario mentioned in my first post is still possible... that Swindon need a win in their last match, at CAFC, to stay up, and we are the club standing in their way, all the while in the worst form we maybe have ever had and needing a result ourselves.
I would not like our chances that day, with a protest crowd in the stands and a dead man walking as manager.
Bury, Oldham, Gills and Port Vale all have mostly tough-looking run-ins. Swindon and Shrewsbury appear to have easier run-ins, with more mid-table opposition.
I don't want to be rude, but you don't seem to have a decent understanding of stats relative to sample sizes. Which is probably why you were not able to differentiate between the odds of five teams all catching us in five games, including one of them having to turn over a four point and sixteen goal difference disadvantage, and Leicester's odds of winning the League in August 2016. With five games to go Leicester were seven points clear and the bookies had stopped taking bets on them!
If you want to know some stats that are based on more than a few weeks, in the last ten years the average number of points that the team that finished 4th bottom has had, has been 47.5. In only five of those ten years has 47 points definitely meant relegation; in only three seasons has 48 meant relegation (so one draw is all we would need); in only two seasons has 49 points been needed and 50 points (with goal differences of -18 and -16) is the maximum that a team being relegated has achieved.
On that basis one win in five or three draws should be enough - probably less. Remember we have to play Swindon, Chesterfield and Coventry who have managed to win 24 of their 119 games this season, and Gillingham have managed 11 wins in 40. If we can't scrape three or four points from those games then the bookies deserve to pay out at 40-1 but I find it unlikely that we will need 50 points and I also find it unlikely that we won't get them.
Also remember that on the last day of the season we play Swindon with Ajose missing who is their joint top scorer having played less than half the minutes that Obika has.
I think you are being a little dramatic. Sure we are not playing well, but I don't think betting on us to go down is free money.
But is Robinson even average?
Has he lost the dressing room by being too gobby with players who - unlike him - have played at full international and top flight level?