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Grand National 2015
Comments
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Druids Nephew + Balthazar King to win
Night In Milan, Al Co (saw someone else really on this horse), Monbeg Dude, Oscar Time E/W.
All on bet365, misread the Paddy Power offer so put a fiver on Chance Du Roy to win on there too.0 -
Peanuts: all in with your tips and even added Docaluto + Mrs M's Night in Milan. Building up nicely now! Good luck one and all.0
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Alvarado and Pineau De Re.0
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Get in0
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Indeed - I hope I haven't screwed up the spread-sheet this time.Slartibartfast said:Hi Peanuts, gone with your first 3 plus the Dude. Great thread as always. Hope we do better than last year:-)
Cheers for the renewed vote of confidence.
All the best
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Ok, for those like me that can't resist a 100/1 shot that could cause a shock (or just grab some tasty place morsel) a quick comment on why my model rates DOLATULO as a minor place candidate and, at 100/1 (6 places), potentially an exciting replacement on the team for Baileys Concerto (still miffed about his absence).
Again, as you'd expect with a rank outsider, he's never going to look an obvious choice to back but on GOOD ground he ticks some common boxes with previously placed horses:
• He’s an 8y-o. It is true that no 8y-o has won since Bindaree in 2002 but we’re shooting for places here (anything more is a jackpot) and 15 8y-os have finished 2nd~6th from 2002~2014 (23% of the relevant places), 7 of them carrying at least as much as weight as Dolatulo
• Made the frame 8 times in his 10 chases in Britain (a winner over hurdles in France, was a Simon Munir-owned juvenile hurdler with Paul Nicholls before being purchased by his shrewd current trainer Warren Greatrex), including 3 wins in 4 spring-ground chases (2 months from start of The Festival)
• One of his two chase “failures” was 12L 8th over the GN fences in the 21.5f Grand Sefton in December (Bindaree’s only prior experience of the GN fences was as 26L 4th in the 22f Topham) - handled the fences fine
• Only 2 chases at further than 22f but won both, including most recently a competitive Rowland Meyrick Chase (Class 1 3m1f) at Wetherby in December on GS, carrying 11.04 and finishing strongly (OR139)
• Hardly a featherweight but 10.11 is OK. His chase mark was hiked a meaty 9lbs to its current OR148 after Wetherby but he was giving Broadway Buffalo 4lbs and beat him by 18.5L (BB was subsequently close runner-up to Cause Of Causes [16/1 today] over 4m at The Festival and highly fancied for the GN but didn’t make the cut). Over 2.5m prior to Wetherby (10lbs below his GN mark today) Dolatulo was a close 2nd to the progressive Sound Investment, now 13lbs higher in the handicap after winning the Greatwood Gold Cup last month.
• 5 runs in the season, the last 30 days prior is fine for GN stats
• The 4.5m trip is a complete unknown, being untried beyond 25f. However, 22 horses with no form beyond 24~25f have filled the first 6 home in GNs since 1988, the majority on the sort of Good ground expected today.
Indeed in 4 of the 5 Good ground GNs since 2008, at least one of the 2nd~6th places has been filled by such a runner, all carrying 10.11 or more: King Johns Castle (2nd 2008 with 10.11), Snowy Morning (3rd 2008 11.01), The Midnight Club (6th 2011 10.13), Seabass (3rd 2012 10.12) and Double Seven 3rd 2014 10.11)
Admittedly there is nothing in Dolatulo’s pedigree that shouts Grand National but just remember: Red Rum was flat-bred.
HAVE FUN!!!
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Blimey, cheers for the massive vote of confidence - hope I'm not leading a mass leap off the cliffs!meldrew66 said:Peanuts: all in with your tips and even added Docaluto + Mrs M's Night in Milan. Building up nicely now! Good luck one and all.
Best of luck.0 -
Already backed Alvarado and CDR ew.
Have had Soll buzzing about in my brain so finally succumbed and took 16 s1 -
Don't say that Peanuts, I'm very near to Beachy Head:-)1
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PeanutsMolloy said:
Blimey, cheers for the massive vote of confidence - hope I'm not leading a mass leap off the cliffs!meldrew66 said:Peanuts: all in with your tips and even added Docaluto + Mrs M's Night in Milan. Building up nicely now! Good luck one and all.
Best of luck.
Thanks again for all your hard work every year, Peanuts. Mostly bet on footie only these days but gone with your selections again this year.
Win or lose it's always a cracking afternoon, followed by two more days of The Masters.
Good luck everyone!
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Mate, if we go off the cliff it's on us!! I look forward to this thread each year, thanks for the great analysis and insight as always!PeanutsMolloy said:
Blimey, cheers for the massive vote of confidence - hope I'm not leading a mass leap off the cliffs!
Best of luck.
Good luck all!1 -
Does anyone know if any of this year's runners are grey? We have a long standing family tradition started by my grandad of backing a grey horse on national day but I haven't been able to figure out if there are any this year.0
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Oscar time is getting on a bit so he might be going grey.2
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PORTRAIT KING (hint!)Exiled_Addick said:Does anyone know if any of this year's runners are grey? We have a long standing family tradition started by my grandad of backing a grey horse on national day but I haven't been able to figure out if there are any this year.
Unioniste
Ballycasey
Corrin Wood
Actually, Unioniste is written off by many being a 7 year-old but if ever a 7y-o were going to smash the poor stats (no winner as young since 1940 and nothing placed <20L since at least 1988) it could be him.
He is French bred (mature earlier than Irish & British breds) is more experienced than most 7 y-o GN runners and is a half brother to My Will (3rd 2009GN) who was an early developer and stout stayer.
He has got a LOT of weight with 11.06 - though Neptune Collonges, the first grey to win since 1961, carried 11.06 to win the 2012 GN.1 -
Thanks Peanuts.
So my and the Missus' slip looks as fillows (all each way):
From the Peanuts model:
Chance Du Roy
Oscar Time
Portrait King (also ticking the grey box)
First Lieutenant
The Druids Nephew (great name)
Dolatulo
Non Model punts
Rainbow Hunter (like the name, hopefully the jockey will stay on this year!)
Rocky Creek (the Missus' pick)
Shutthefrontdoor ( also the Missus')
Apropos of nothing, despite knowing not a lot about racing, Mrs EA has a startlingly good record of picking winners in the GN.
I of course, have absolute faith in the PM model and in fact will be booking my Caribbean cruise with my guaranteed winnings as soon as I hit 'post' for this comment.3 -
Gone with Chance Du Roy e/w and Druid's nephew outright. Good luck everyone and thanks peanuts for the great thread mate.1
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PM, i've got the champagne and cigars ready.
If not, then i've got Harvey Keitel warming up - and the estate agents ready to sell the house.!
No pressure then !!
Good luck everyone - and thanks PM, this thread has become a legend !2 -
Picking the first and second fav? Mrs EA appears to be following the smiffy modelExiled_Addick said:Thanks Peanuts.
So my and the Missus' slip looks as fillows (all each way):
From the Peanuts model:
Chance Du Roy
Oscar Time
Portrait King (also ticking the grey box)
First Lieutenant
The Druids Nephew (great name)
Dolatulo
Non Model punts
Rainbow Hunter (like the name, hopefully the jockey will stay on this year!)
Rocky Creek (the Missus' pick)
Shutthefrontdoor ( also the Missus')
Apropos of nothing, despite knowing not a lot about racing, Mrs EA has a startlingly good record of picking winners in the GN.
I of course, have absolute faith in the PM model and in fact will be booking my Caribbean cruise with my guaranteed winnings as soon as I hit 'post' for this comment.
Cheers for the massive vote of confidence Exiled,
Best of luck.0 -
Too kind Pres - proof is in the pudding.The_President said:PM, i've got the champagne and cigars ready.
If not, then i've got Harvey Keitel warming up - and the estate agents ready to sell the house.!
No pressure then !!
Good luck everyone - and thanks PM, this thread has become a legend !
Good luck.0 -
Yes the be fair she's not really stuck her neck out too far this year!0
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She could have it spot on.Exiled_Addick said:Yes the be fair she's not really stuck her neck out too far this year!
Best of luck to you and her .....well, especially you 1 -
Also, to be fair she is only backing STFD for the potential AP fairy tale, her real fancied picked is Rocky Creek.0
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Vic obviously taking e/w money on CDR - back in to 33s again.0
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Can't be denied, a big danger.Exiled_Addick said:Also, to be fair she is only backing STFD for the potential AP fairy tale, her real fancied picked is Rocky Creek.
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Added Dolatulu. 125-1 Stan James. All 7 backed.0
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Added Dolatulo as well.0
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what time is the race?0
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1615
Ain't done too bad so far0 -
Good luck everyone, whichever horses are carrying your hopes.
Fingers crossed that all horses and jockeys return safe and sound.1 -
Nervous.
Good luck Peanuts.
Fairly convinced you will have success.
Fully convinced it will be the ones I didn't back!2
