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Grand National 2015
len90
Posts: 143
Still early days but I think Godsmejudge is the one to be on this year.
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Why? Where's your analysis? Leave it for the expert.
@PeanutsMolloy0 -
Cheers Abs, too kind.
Thanks for kicking off the thread Len. There’s certainly a lot going for your fellow and I can’t say I won’t be joining you nearer the time - can’t say I will either.
Despite the customary compression of the handicap, he should get a seemingly-workable weight tomorrow but it seems to me that there is the potential for a meaningful hike prior to the race this year. Aside from injuries, with so many youngsters and/or Gold Cup contenders populating the top of the list of 98 entries, despite the 4 week gap between Cheltenham and Aintree, there could be more than the average number of defections. We could see a top-weight with an OR closer to the 156 of 2008 than the 160+ of the last 4 GNs.
Aside from weights, there’s much water to flow under a fair few bridges yet and, from my model’s perspective, Godsmejudge’s GN stat-profile, like that of many, is meaningfully sensitive to his prep (entered for the BetBright [formerly Racing Post] chase next Saturday).
There is, however, the prospect of some very interesting each-way value for one or two with previous GN experience and likely “strong run” profiles - more in due course.1 -
And they're off.....1
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I'll probably be heading up there for the 2nd year running as a mate of mine has mentioned it for his birthday bash! great day last year so looking forward to it.0
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And BOOM. Here it is.
The thread the bookies fear, and us novices read in awe.5 -
The thread of the year is off and running over to the genius that is peanuts to enlighten us with his unrivalled knowledge1
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Cheers smiffy, you've got me blushingsmiffyboy said:The thread of the year is off and running over to the genius that is peanuts to enlighten us with his unrivalled knowledge
Don't get too smug Paddy and Vic............normal service will be resumed this year.4 -
absolutely love this thread every year0
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I commented on this thread last year and had to confess I have not backed the winner in fifty years.
With that in mind Peanuts I will have to fall on my sword and ignore your fancies. I would hate to be responsible for crushing peoples hopes and dreams; or with your analysis to hand could this be the one!
Oh what a dilemma.
PS. I even backed RedRum when it lost.2 - Sponsored links:
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Looking forward to reeling off a load of PMs stats down the pub.
Each year from the weights being announced to the off, "I" amaze my drinking pals with "my" in depth knowledge of the national hunt season.4 -
True pbs. We don't wanna make this thread too well known. Funnily enough I have been far more knowledgeable about racing since I found it!paulbaconsarnie said:Looking forward to reeling off a load of PMs stats down the pub.
Each year from the weights being announced to the off, "I" amaze my drinking pals with "my" in depth knowledge of the national hunt season.0 -
Godsmejudge has his first run of the season at kemp ton on saturday0
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For what it's worth I think the winner will be number 12 or the one with the red and white cap.0
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Really looking forward to the weights tomorrow .0
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2nd run in fact smiffy. He PU'd in the Great Yorkshire at the end of Jan.smiffyboy said:Godsmejudge has his first run of the season at kemp ton on saturday
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Another good tip is back the horse Tony McCoy will ride then lay it off on the day of the race. He is almost certain to start favourite due to this being his last National. He has not said who he will ride yet but it will be a major shock if he is not on Shutthefrontdoor.0
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As posted by the organ grinderlen90 said:Another good tip is back the horse Tony McCoy will ride then lay it off on the day of the race. He is almost certain to start favourite due to this being his last National. He has not said who he will ride yet but it will be a major shock if he is not on Shutthefrontdoor.
PeanutsMolloy Member
February 8 edited February 8
Not a chance in hell that if Shutthefrontdoor lines up with AP on board on 11 April, he won't be red hot favourite. Whether you'd hold on to the bet for the race, you'd surely have the chance to take profit before the Off and triple your money if you back him on the Betfair Win market at current 25s.
EDIT You've got the change from ante-post to raceday market to contend with.1 -
LOL. Morning gentlemen.
Agree with the sentiment of course Len but the big move's already happened (now 12-13) - just about 100% profit in 9 days.
More juice left for sure but difficult to see much more materialising until nearer the race so TBH I'll probably start cashing out now - always the risk of injury.0 -
Bet365 has been 5 e/w places ante-post for a week or so but now BetVic & Paddy Power have joined them.0
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Any picks for Cheltenham peanuts?0
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See peanuts your knowledge is too goodPeanutsMolloy said:
2nd run in fact smiffy. He PU'd in the Great Yorkshire at the end of Jan.smiffyboy said:Godsmejudge has his first run of the season at kemp ton on saturday
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To be honest nichorob, I'm a one trick pony.......a man's got to know his limitations.nichorob said:Any picks for Cheltenham peanuts?
There will be plenty of savvy tips from Abs, smiffy and others on the forthcoming Festival thread. I'll be following them.1 -
Better watch out for me lads. I have bought a new pin to stick in the paper.2
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Hi Peanuts
Is there a good reason why Teaforthree is going down the Hunter Chase route ?0 -
11st 10lb Carlingford Lough, Lord Windermere
11-9 Many Clouds
11-8 Sam Winner
11-7 Boston Bob
11-6 Unioniste
11-4 Rajdhani Express, Roi Du Mee
11-3 First Lieutenant, Rocky Creek, Rolling Aces
11-2 Balthazar King, Home Farm, Shutthefrontdoor
11-1 Alderwood, Double Ross
11-0 Hadrian’s Approach, Katenko, Pineau De Re
10-13 Back In Focus, Ballycasey
10-12 Rebel Rebellion, Spring Heeled
10-11 Dolatulo, Mon Parrain
10-10 Carlito Brigante, Living Next Door, Poole Master, Shotgun Paddy
10-9 Cause Of Causes, Night In Milan, Rubi Light, The Druids Nephew
10-8 Al Co, Benvolio, Godsmejudge, Sunnyhillboy
10-7 Corrin Wood, Make A Track, Monbeg Dude, Teaforthree, The Rainbow Hunter
10-6 Across The Bay, My Murphy, Prince De Beauchene, Saint Are
10-5 Burton Port, Merry King, Oscar Time, Tranquil Sea
10-4 Bob Ford, Cedre Bleu, Chance Du Roy, Gas Line Boy, Super Duty, Wyck Hill
10-3 Alvarado, Buddy Bolero, Court By Surprise, Owega Star, Portrait King, River Choice
10-2 Baileys Concerto, Duke Of Lucca, Ely Brown, Kruzhlinin, Renard, Royale Knight, Soll, Theatrical Star
10-1 Raz De Maree
10-0 Broadway Buffalo, Green Flag, Guess Again, Maggio, The Package
9-13 Gallant Oscar, Goonyella, Sydney Paget, Vintage Star
9-12 Alpha Victor, Mountainous
9-11 Ikorodu Road, Mart Lane
9-9 Any Currency, Harry The Viking, Rigadin De Beauchene
9-8 Ballyoliver, Glenquest
9-7 Lackamon, Standing Ovation
9-5 Loch Ba, Rose Of The Moon
9-3 American Spin
9-1 Tales Of Milan
9-0 Neptune Equester0 -
10-5 is a lovely weight for BP but will be even better when the weights go up 2lb or 3lb so his jockey can have a proper saddle ;-)1
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Cheers for that AA.
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What's Carlingford Loug and Lord Windermere's GN OR?0
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CL 166 & LW 1600
