When you look at the transfer window we have had the first phase of this change - we can all judge the impact at the home games in February and assess the success or otherwise. Assuming we stay up we will see over the summer what the next stage looks like in terms of players leaving and joining. To me the aim has to be top six - we will see how many players come in from outside the group to accelerate progress. Will top players suddenly move on? What is the gap between CAFC now and the top six? Is break even (with player sales) the objective or perhaps it is a lot more ambitious - by that I mean maximize revenue and develop the playing side as quickly as possible.
What sort of money would you throw at our club in the quest for too six
That's a good question! On top of players from the group we will see how much is spent on transfer fees. It would take someone a lot more knowledgable than I to define the precise gap between the current CAFC squad and attaining 5th or 6th place in the next couple of years - I would simply improve the weakest parts of the squad. If Charlton were to mimic Forest or Leicester then we simply have to consider how much pay and transfer fees involved in bringing in a younger version of Andy Reed? The prize is just one year in the Premier League which gives £120M over four or five years AND revitalising the club - Airman Brown would know better than I what the kick might be on the gate during a promotion challenge so part of my case is that moving up the league is partially self funding. Or as I state in my article the alternative to not going for it is going to kill the club slowly as people simply stop going.
In answer to Mundells point above I agree that loan players might have been brought in from elsewhere in the same volume. Perhaps the advantage of a network is that players can move much easier between clubs in a group just as workers move between countries working for a multinational and there are no agents involved hyping up the fees and killing deals where it suits them.
I am not saying this is a guaranteed success story about to happen. That would be a bit premature before three home games and a 5th round cup tie! But if these two strikers hit the ground running and there are more players to come then I think many of us might live with an "unconventional" keeper.
I think your calculation re marginal revenue from additional ticket sales is pushing it a bit. I would say £15 x 2,000 x 23, which is £700k, absolute max, and that is probably a100 per cent increase on current home match ticket sales so very difficult to achieve.
Yes I have suggested £1M for 2,000 fans per annum but then I include merchandise, food and programmes... and probably VAT(in error) ! My point is that CAFC , the Trust and Charlton fans should not stop there but keep pushing until gates are above 20,000 again. Interestingly Richard Murray the other night discounted the value of 2,000 fans far further, equating it to the cost of one player. He did agree that being at the right end of the table helps build things but my simple point is that points add value and value adds points.
Now, and in the months and years to come, I believe that we should all be very clear on the numbers and values involved so that the fans can make their judgments on the business case(s) proposed.
Just having a look at Ujpest. Currently 10th in the first division of 16 clubs. Currently nine points off a Europa league place, six points above a relegation place. That shows potential. However ...average attendances 1,635, highest 2,467. Three young Belgians in the squad, One of them has played previously for both Standard and Sint-Truiden, one just for S-T.. Two Spaniards, but neither have done time in the network. OK..now get these admission prices for league games: walk up prices are between £2.30 and £6.60. Now, if you have an average price of £4 per person, an average of 1,700 gate, and 15 home games, your turnstile revenue for the whole season is £102,000. There will be TV money and sponsorship, but this is Hungary. This reliable looking article suggests that Hungarian League TV money is around €500,000. So that suggests that Ujpest's total annual revenue is around £500,000, or around the money we are reported to have offered Yann.
The same article however points out what riches can be earned by qualifying for the UCL (far less so for the Europa League). It is difficult to estimate from the opaque explanations avaialble but they would probably treble their revenue just by getting to the playoff stage in UCL.
And yet, and yet. What about the wages of the players coming from Belgium? Even if they are young reserves, they have to be very expensive by local standards.
I must confess that, it being close to my kind of business in structural terms, I am fascinated by it. But I am still far from sure that I understand it, even in business terms.
Any thoughts?
The whole is greater than the sum of its parts...
That would be, in my view, a reckless assumption.
I will just take the liberty of posting the private view of a well known Lifer, because I think he sums up the opposite viewpoint very well
we are all thinking there is a wholly professional machine and system in place, we just don't have the insider knowledge to confirm that. My fear is that it simply isn't as structured, thought out and long term planned as we are trying to guess. Some of his acquisitions simply don't make any sense.
Personally I remain somewhere in the middle, but I think we really have to examine how this thing is supposed to work, if we want to decide one way or another.
Just having a look at Ujpest. Currently 10th in the first division of 16 clubs. Currently nine points off a Europa league place, six points above a relegation place. That shows potential. However ...average attendances 1,635, highest 2,467. Three young Belgians in the squad, One of them has played previously for both Standard and Sint-Truiden, one just for S-T.. Two Spaniards, but neither have done time in the network. OK..now get these admission prices for league games: walk up prices are between £2.30 and £6.60. Now, if you have an average price of £4 per person, an average of 1,700 gate, and 15 home games, your turnstile revenue for the whole season is £102,000. There will be TV money and sponsorship, but this is Hungary. This reliable looking article suggests that Hungarian League TV money is around €500,000. So that suggests that Ujpest's total annual revenue is around £500,000, or around the money we are reported to have offered Yann.
The same article however points out what riches can be earned by qualifying for the UCL (far less so for the Europa League). It is difficult to estimate from the opaque explanations avaialble but they would probably treble their revenue just by getting to the playoff stage in UCL.
And yet, and yet. What about the wages of the players coming from Belgium? Even if they are young reserves, they have to be very expensive by local standards.
I must confess that, it being close to my kind of business in structural terms, I am fascinated by it. But I am still far from sure that I understand it, even in business terms.
Any thoughts?
The whole is greater than the sum of its parts...
That would be, in my view, a reckless assumption.
I will just take the liberty of posting the private view of a well known Lifer, because I think he sums up the opposite viewpoint very well
we are all thinking there is a wholly professional machine and system in place, we just don't have the insider knowledge to confirm that. My fear is that it simply isn't as structured, thought out and long term planned as we are trying to guess. Some of his acquisitions simply don't make any sense.
Personally I remain somewhere in the middle, but I think we really have to examine how this thing is supposed to work, if we want to decide one way or another.
So what about the Spanish one...
My fault for being flippant, apologies. I simply meant that you need the network view before you can draw any conclusions on the fit of a particular club.
I'm making no assumptions here, just offering explanations.
PA - I think the Spanish club is the easiest to explain. He has purchased a cheap but relatively highly placed (2nd division) team in the capital city of the country that appears at the moment to have a conveyor belt of talent. The club (unlike all others) is overachieving in it's current position and therefore how much resistance will there be to it being a breeding ground for new talent or a testing ground for released players. Were better to send a young player to learn his skills (from the rest of the clubs)?
I have to admit that i am one of the ones who has assumed that there is a professional machine in place. Probably because I can't countenance there not being!
Just having a look at Ujpest. Currently 10th in the first division of 16 clubs. Currently nine points off a Europa league place, six points above a relegation place. That shows potential. However ...average attendances 1,635, highest 2,467. Three young Belgians in the squad, One of them has played previously for both Standard and Sint-Truiden, one just for S-T.. Two Spaniards, but neither have done time in the network. OK..now get these admission prices for league games: walk up prices are between £2.30 and £6.60. Now, if you have an average price of £4 per person, an average of 1,700 gate, and 15 home games, your turnstile revenue for the whole season is £102,000. There will be TV money and sponsorship, but this is Hungary. This reliable looking article suggests that Hungarian League TV money is around €500,000. So that suggests that Ujpest's total annual revenue is around £500,000, or around the money we are reported to have offered Yann.
The same article however points out what riches can be earned by qualifying for the UCL (far less so for the Europa League). It is difficult to estimate from the opaque explanations avaialble but they would probably treble their revenue just by getting to the playoff stage in UCL.
And yet, and yet. What about the wages of the players coming from Belgium? Even if they are young reserves, they have to be very expensive by local standards.
I must confess that, it being close to my kind of business in structural terms, I am fascinated by it. But I am still far from sure that I understand it, even in business terms.
Any thoughts?
The whole is greater than the sum of its parts...
That would be, in my view, a reckless assumption.
I will just take the liberty of posting the private view of a well known Lifer, because I think he sums up the opposite viewpoint very well
we are all thinking there is a wholly professional machine and system in place, we just don't have the insider knowledge to confirm that. My fear is that it simply isn't as structured, thought out and long term planned as we are trying to guess. Some of his acquisitions simply don't make any sense.
Personally I remain somewhere in the middle, but I think we really have to examine how this thing is supposed to work, if we want to decide one way or another.
So what about the Spanish one...
As I suggested earlier in this thread, it's too early to draw any real conclusions about the value of Duchatelet's network. It's entirely possible that each acquisition is, primarily, an independent experiment - the null hypothesis being that it is possible to make money as an owner of Football Clubs of all shapes and sizes.
In this view of the strategy, synergies between sister Clubs are a "nice to have", an icing on the cake, rather than the main course; sister Clubs being connected by a common strategy, principally a focus on youth development, rather than being interdependent.
In reality there is, thus far, simply no evidence whatsoever of a grand plan; no Europe wide Director of Football, no Cruyff like transformation of youth development at each Club, just a few intra network loan deals which would not have required common ownership or oversight.
I suspect Duchatelet is making it up as he goes along. None of this suggests he won't be good for Charlton, of course, though I suspect he'll be unpredictable and, at times, controversial.
I find it extremely unlikely that Duchatelet has bought, what is it now six clubs with rumours of more on a complete whim. He is extremely rich by any standards but not so rich that he can afford to see his investments lose value and lose money as some sort of sporting social experiment. A plan of sorts exists, of that I am in no doubt. Most probably fluid and embryonic but nonetheless a plan.
I find it extremely unlikely that Duchatelet has bought, what is it now six clubs with rumours of more on a complete whim. He is extremely rich by any standards but not so rich that he can afford to see his investments lose value and lose money as some sort of sporting social experiment. A plan of sorts exists, of that I am in no doubt. Most probably fluid and embryonic but nonetheless a plan.
I'm sure you are right SHG ...perhaps we find out a little more tomorrow.
PA - I think the Spanish club is the easiest to explain. He has purchased a cheap but relatively highly placed (2nd division) team in the capital city of the country that appears at the moment to have a conveyor belt of talent. The club (unlike all others) is overachieving in it's current position and therefore how much resistance will there be to it being a breeding ground for new talent or a testing ground for released players. Were better to send a young player to learn his skills (from the rest of the clubs)?
I have to admit that i am one of the ones who has assumed that there is a professional machine in place. Probably because I can't countenance there not being!
Hallo mate
Could you tell us more about this club and Spanish football in general? I never realised it's a Madrid club. What sort of gates do they get, and roughly what sort of price do people pay to watch them?
What do you think is behind the rise of the 'conveyor belt of talent' in Spain?
And what about the TV money? I seem to remember reading that because there is no collective selling of TV rights, most of the top league clubs get very little, and Madrid and Barca make a fortune. So even if by some miracle Alcorcon got promoted, would it bring him much extra money, do you think?
I see what you mean about it being a willing feeder club.
I know nothing about Alcorcón other than they are really small. I have just looked them up and they are smaller than I suspected. Ground capacity is only 6k and whilst they are second div now they have been in the regionals until recently (4 x third divisions and 9 x regional fourth divs) I just think that there must be a chance for them to pick up Madrid, Atlético and even Getafe players. They have also just replaced their coach/manager!
If RD has bought Alcorcón to make money from TV then he is seriously wrong there is little money for the big clubs (outside Barca and Madrid). They have consistently finished in the top half of the second division for the past four seasons which would i would assume was down to good coaching as they have no money. I would imagine the good coaching is why they have been purchased!
Why does Spain produce such talent? I would have to say absolute love of keeping the ball, learning being more important than winning when younger, tons of qualified coaches. All that has probably always been there but I think Spain has undergone a rediscovery of confidence in itself as a nation (something it's politicians are trying really hard to destroy!) which is echoed and magnified in its national football team.
Could you imagine a couple or more of our youngest and best players spending a couple of years in Madrid learning about ball possession and angles, learning all the skills that are really hard to learn in competitive pro games in England. Also I could see a couple of really good young Spaniards learning about strength and not giving up attitudes from us (not really a fair exchange is it).
If you want to reach 27,000 again, you have to get to a 20,000 average first. Very short sighted to see it any other way. Airman did a terrific job boosting our numbers and there is nobody's judgement I would trust more when the discussion is the importance of building crowd numbers!
When you look at the transfer window we have had the first phase of this change - we can all judge the impact at the home games in February and assess the success or otherwise. Assuming we stay up we will see over the summer what the next stage looks like in terms of players leaving and joining. To me the aim has to be top six - we will see how many players come in from outside the group to accelerate progress. Will top players suddenly move on? What is the gap between CAFC now and the top six? Is break even (with player sales) the objective or perhaps it is a lot more ambitious - by that I mean maximize revenue and develop the playing side as quickly as possible.
What sort of money would you throw at our club in the quest for too six
That's a good question! On top of players from the group we will see how much is spent on transfer fees. It would take someone a lot more knowledgable than I to define the precise gap between the current CAFC squad and attaining 5th or 6th place in the next couple of years - I would simply improve the weakest parts of the squad. If Charlton were to mimic Forest or Leicester then we simply have to consider how much pay and transfer fees involved in bringing in a younger version of Andy Reed? The prize is just one year in the Premier League which gives £120M over four or five years AND revitalising the club - Airman Brown would know better than I what the kick might be on the gate during a promotion challenge so part of my case is that moving up the league is partially self funding. Or as I state in my article the alternative to not going for it is going to kill the club slowly as people simply stop going.
In answer to Mundells point above I agree that loan players might have been brought in from elsewhere in the same volume. Perhaps the advantage of a network is that players can move much easier between clubs in a group just as workers move between countries working for a multinational and there are no agents involved hyping up the fees and killing deals where it suits them.
I am not saying this is a guaranteed success story about to happen. That would be a bit premature before three home games and a 5th round cup tie! But if these two strikers hit the ground running and there are more players to come then I think many of us might live with an "unconventional" keeper.
I think your calculation re marginal revenue from additional ticket sales is pushing it a bit. I would say £15 x 2,000 x 23, which is £700k, absolute max, and that is probably a100 per cent increase on current home match ticket sales so very difficult to achieve.
Yes I have suggested £1M for 2,000 fans per annum but then I include merchandise, food and programmes... and probably VAT(in error) ! My point is that CAFC , the Trust and Charlton fans should not stop there but keep pushing until gates are above 20,000 again. Interestingly Richard Murray the other night discounted the value of 2,000 fans far further, equating it to the cost of one player. He did agree that being at the right end of the table helps build things but my simple point is that points add value and value adds points.
Now, and in the months and years to come, I believe that we should all be very clear on the numbers and values involved so that the fans can make their judgments on the business case(s) proposed.
The average kiosk spend this season is £1.92 net, as reported in the Voice. I'd guess they are selling about 3,500 programmes @ £3, which is about one in four, but this tends to fall as a proportion as the gate increases. Retail is outsourced and I think the commission paid is tiered rather than directly proportionate.
I've no idea what the margins are, but even if they are 100 per cent on food your 2,000 supporters would generate £2k per match = £46k per season.
The club pays commission to the programme sellers and there is a marginal cost to printing extra programmes, but let's say it makes £2 per extra unit. That's £4,000 x 0.25 x 23 = £23k. No VAT on programmes.
Even if there's a merchandise benefit, it's not going to exceed £50k because as with the kiosks many people never buy. I doubt if either my father or my brother have bought anything in the club shop since we returned to The Valley.
So in terms of revenue, it's ticket sales that matter most - first, second and third. It's not that the other revenue streams don't matter at all or should be ignored and they might, I accept, play a small part in retention, particularly of new supporters, but one extra ticket sale is vastly more significant.
The problem is that we will only be selling an average of 2,000 home match tickets in total at present and it's very hard to double that number at full price without offering something better on the pitch - and even when you do.
There are, however, many ways of selling discounted match tickets and their holders' spend at the ground - at least in catering - is likely to be the same as a full price ticket purchaser. But by definition you will get less revenue on average. Nevertheless, this is the most profitable route for the club.
Just having a look at Ujpest. Currently 10th in the first division of 16 clubs. Currently nine points off a Europa league place, six points above a relegation place. That shows potential. However ...average attendances 1,635, highest 2,467. Three young Belgians in the squad, One of them has played previously for both Standard and Sint-Truiden, one just for S-T.. Two Spaniards, but neither have done time in the network. OK..now get these admission prices for league games: walk up prices are between £2.30 and £6.60. Now, if you have an average price of £4 per person, an average of 1,700 gate, and 15 home games, your turnstile revenue for the whole season is £102,000. There will be TV money and sponsorship, but this is Hungary. This reliable looking article suggests that Hungarian League TV money is around €500,000. So that suggests that Ujpest's total annual revenue is around £500,000, or around the money we are reported to have offered Yann.
The same article however points out what riches can be earned by qualifying for the UCL (far less so for the Europa League). It is difficult to estimate from the opaque explanations avaialble but they would probably treble their revenue just by getting to the playoff stage in UCL.
And yet, and yet. What about the wages of the players coming from Belgium? Even if they are young reserves, they have to be very expensive by local standards.
I must confess that, it being close to my kind of business in structural terms, I am fascinated by it. But I am still far from sure that I understand it, even in business terms.
Any thoughts?
The whole is greater than the sum of its parts...
That would be, in my view, a reckless assumption.
I will just take the liberty of posting the private view of a well known Lifer, because I think he sums up the opposite viewpoint very well
we are all thinking there is a wholly professional machine and system in place, we just don't have the insider knowledge to confirm that. My fear is that it simply isn't as structured, thought out and long term planned as we are trying to guess. Some of his acquisitions simply don't make any sense.
Personally I remain somewhere in the middle, but I think we really have to examine how this thing is supposed to work, if we want to decide one way or another.
So what about the Spanish one...
As I suggested earlier in this thread, it's too early to draw any real conclusions about the value of Duchatelet's network. It's entirely possible that each acquisition is, primarily, an independent experiment - the null hypothesis being that it is possible to make money as an owner of Football Clubs of all shapes and sizes.
In this view of the strategy, synergies between sister Clubs are a "nice to have", an icing on the cake, rather than the main course; sister Clubs being connected by a common strategy, principally a focus on youth development, rather than being interdependent.
In reality there is, thus far, simply no evidence whatsoever of a grand plan; no Europe wide Director of Football, no Cruyff like transformation of youth development at each Club, just a few intra network loan deals which would not have required common ownership or oversight.
I suspect Duchatelet is making it up as he goes along. None of this suggests he won't be good for Charlton, of course, though I suspect he'll be unpredictable and, at times, controversial.
I think 'simply no evidence whatsoever of a grand plan' isn't quite accurate. I think there's evidence, not least in the movement of players between the clubs in his stable. The presence of a Europe wide DoF is just one solution - working on building the managers' network, for which I understand the wheels are already in motion, is another.
In my view there is evidence of visionary thinking, even if it awaits more structure. I've said that this is developing in practice, I definitely agree that unpredictability and controversy are likely to form part of the outworking - but there will be positives as well, and if Peter Parsley's recruitment is any evidence at all, some money available to the clubs at the top of the triangle.
I know nothing about Alcorcón other than they are really small. I have just looked them up and they are smaller than I suspected. Ground capacity is only 6k and whilst they are second div now they have been in the regionals until recently (4 x third divisions and 9 x regional fourth divs) I just think that there must be a chance for them to pick up Madrid, Atlético and even Getafe players. They have also just replaced their coach/manager!
If RD has bought Alcorcón to make money from TV then he is seriously wrong there is little money for the big clubs (outside Barca and Madrid). They have consistently finished in the top half of the second division for the past four seasons which would i would assume was down to good coaching as they have no money. I would imagine the good coaching is why they have been purchased!
Why does Spain produce such talent? I would have to say absolute love of keeping the ball, learning being more important than winning when younger, tons of qualified coaches. All that has probably always been there but I think Spain has undergone a rediscovery of confidence in itself as a nation (something it's politicians are trying really hard to destroy!) which is echoed and magnified in its national football team.
Could you imagine a couple or more of our youngest and best players spending a couple of years in Madrid learning about ball possession and angles, learning all the skills that are really hard to learn in competitive pro games in England. Also I could see a couple of really good young Spaniards learning about strength and not giving up attitudes from us (not really a fair exchange is it).
Billy
This kind of illustrates the point I've been struggling to make. It probably doesn't matter if Alcorcon loses money if you're taking a network view. Does Alcorcon offer non financial benefits to the network, for example, that might create greater opportunity for the clubs nearer the top of the triangle to profit? Does Spain provide a decent opportunity to get work permits for young players of potential, for example. Could players joining the network see a genuine career development path that doesn't depend on luck, timing or agent misbehaviour?
But there may be financial benefits too, such as differences in taxation, wages, and so on. Is there an opportunity to reduce overhead costs? And so on.
Mundell's right in that there's little clear evidence that all this has been thought through and documented in a strategy, but perhaps RD doesn't work that way. Doesn't mean he's not thinking it through either.
I'm pretty sure Belgium is the best country to get those work permits rather than Spain, hence a lot of the top prem clubs having linkups with Belgian clubs already.
I'm pretty sure Belgium is the best country to get those work permits rather than Spain, hence a lot of the top prem clubs having linkups with Belgian clubs already.
That might well be true for African players but I'm not so sure about South Americans.
I know nothing about Alcorcón other than they are really small. I have just looked them up and they are smaller than I suspected. Ground capacity is only 6k and whilst they are second div now they have been in the regionals until recently (4 x third divisions and 9 x regional fourth divs) I just think that there must be a chance for them to pick up Madrid, Atlético and even Getafe players. They have also just replaced their coach/manager!
If RD has bought Alcorcón to make money from TV then he is seriously wrong there is little money for the big clubs (outside Barca and Madrid). They have consistently finished in the top half of the second division for the past four seasons which would i would assume was down to good coaching as they have no money. I would imagine the good coaching is why they have been purchased!
Why does Spain produce such talent? I would have to say absolute love of keeping the ball, learning being more important than winning when younger, tons of qualified coaches. All that has probably always been there but I think Spain has undergone a rediscovery of confidence in itself as a nation (something it's politicians are trying really hard to destroy!) which is echoed and magnified in its national football team.
Could you imagine a couple or more of our youngest and best players spending a couple of years in Madrid learning about ball possession and angles, learning all the skills that are really hard to learn in competitive pro games in England. Also I could see a couple of really good young Spaniards learning about strength and not giving up attitudes from us (not really a fair exchange is it).
Billy
This kind of illustrates the point I've been struggling to make. It probably doesn't matter if Alcorcon loses money if you're taking a network view. Does Alcorcon offer non financial benefits to the network, for example, that might create greater opportunity for the clubs nearer the top of the triangle to profit? Does Spain provide a decent opportunity to get work permits for young players of potential, for example. Could players joining the network see a genuine career development path that doesn't depend on luck, timing or agent misbehaviour?
But there may be financial benefits too, such as differences in taxation, wages, and so on. Is there an opportunity to reduce overhead costs? And so on.
Mundell's right in that there's little clear evidence that all this has been thought through and documented in a strategy, but perhaps RD doesn't work that way. Doesn't mean he's not thinking it through either.
My belief is that he has bought Alcorcón because they were cheap, are in the second division and have close proximity to Madrid. I am also making an assumption that they have good coaching/good young players on the basis of the fact that they have (over the past ten years) consistently improved from being the equivalent to a Conference South side to being better placed than us (I think they are 6th from bottom). They may of course have also just been lucky.
I really don't know if there is a fabulous strategy in place and if there is one if it will work or not. But if I had the money and the same strategy I would buy a team in Spain for the quality and in belguim for the work permits and the quality.
We have had the press conference, now I can offer the vision but before doing so, can we please recognise our current status?
RD has been in charge for 7 weeks.
A "takeover" is no simple process especially one involving so convoluted a corporate structure, a swathe of “interested parties” (some in the BVI), across vendor & previous administrations, financial institutions & a host of creditors. Until you sort the business you cannot sort out the club.
“You cannot build tall buildings on small foundations”
The TJ legacy, a declining clubhouse “run” by a part time CEO, with 4/5ths playing staff & a management team due to leave in June, cannot be rebuilt in weeks. Immediate change was unrealistic. Those who wanted to leave (no matter their protestations) were let go. No club needs people who do not want to be there.
"I ask fans not to be mad if once in a while we sell a good player".
You can legitimately argue RD could have; a) Done more to keep KMG but was KMG's decision more to do with CP? b) Secured CP to a new contract (based on his record) but that presupposes the new structure will mirror the one where CP has delivered.
One can admire a persons’ work but be unsure of the best fit for them going forward. To commit to anyone without a clarity of role for the long term is dishonest and sends mixed messages. The future may present a very different workplace for CP.
“RD confirms discussions over new contract for Chris Powell” – “There's no doubt he's an extremely good coach. It's our desire to work with him.”
The RD strategy will unfold but to those fearing his approach I must pose a challenge, knowing our recent past, what are the sustainable alternatives for a club of our size?
The recent assertion, made by a respected contributor, KM was "naïve" in believing she could "balance the books", was more than telling. If this is the culture of those working "in the game" it explains a lot. In the real world I can but ask “Who is really the more naïve?” Look at the insanity at Fulham.
Brighton's £14mn loss for last years' "price of being competitive" poses the question how long can this go on? If others at the top of the Championship face comparable losses it’s circa £100mn lost for 1 seasons' trading - it is obscene. As I have said before it is a case of "the emperor has no clothes".
I understand why some wish to continue to operate in such a way because "everyone must be doing it". The Chinese do say "the path most trod is the path to happiness" but such path has failed us for too long and is unsustainable. Our recent history has seen years of pain clinging to a "failing business" plan with us regularly flirting with administration.
Pro football has pursued the growth of the elite for 30yrs, with home gate receipts retention, the split of media revenue, and marketing of clubs to global markets accentuating the rise of the few. It created such an attractive market it enticed others, with greater resources, to buy in. The world now owns the PL. A final distortion, the abolition of PL relegation, awaits.
What do you expect other owners to do? In what parallel universe do people work for a "business" with no expectation it might become self-sufficient?
Those viewing RD actions, in terms of this season need to await the bigger picture. Even our natural focus misconstrues our entry to the “plan”.
Owning Carl Zeiss, Ujpest, Alcorcon & others in Italy/ Portugal is no puzzle. Each is a low cost market entry into new markets providing the same grounding & presence in local markets as Tubize & STVV did in Belgium.
The odd one out is Charlton Athletic.
Were we in the initial UK purchase plan? Or did the price & contingency terms divert RD to us? Looking as his Tubize agreement, a key driver will have been our Academy & U21 profile. Our Cat.2 status is an issue but it is likely RD will protect this area of investment.
“It is definitely a point of attention and we are studying the possibility to upgrade it,” said the Belgian. “We have a very good academy, we are proud to have Cat. 2 already but it is an attention point. “The goal is to foster the academy of Charlton
The key personnel at SL are Sporting Director - JF de Sart (Belgian U21 coach 12yrs) & 1st team coach Luzon (ex-Israeli U21 coach). We are going to have to get used to an extreme focus on youth.
RDs’ expectation may be the fly in the ointment, with success at academy levels you expect several key players to “percolate” to the top. In 3yrs only Solly, Harriott & Cousins have progressed (Poyet is knocking on the door).
I imagine it is a regular topic of discussion.
To manage “the shop” player contracts will be long term, flexible to facilitate “internal” transfers, provide players an extended opportunity to develop, and security with the time & space to deliver playing & financial success for all parties.
The network offers broad development across a range of football philosophies.
I see an opportunity to build a new football club business model.
Each club operates as a unique “entity” with a specific management /coaching /academy structure
Player sourcing & financing will be via a “franchise” style organisation.
Transfers between the network clubs will be internal accounting negating any external levies.
Registrations/ contracts will be owned by each club under local FA control but managed via a central contracts function.
This allows a unique “view” of contract “investments” across the network.
The focus of the profit/loss equation switches from each club to each player spreading risk across circa 200 full & development contracts.
The central function takes a view as to how it defrays each “investment” cost.
A menu of costs & revenues can be apportioned to each club via a central billing function, addressing each core revenue, league table incentives, cup revenues etc., and FFP losses. For FFP, players have real and virtual salaries.
Such cost isolation clarifies the viability of each club “business unit”.
Central control allows economies across all trading including accounting, legal and IT. RD will already employ global legal, technical & marketing staff.
Crucial to the plan is the placing of the right people in the right positions.
If “the plan” is outside the norm, the roles to deliver it will be non-traditional - a diversion from the “celebrated UK football manager”. The UK manager role has grown over the years to a point it is now so diverse as to cater for a Redknapp (wheeler dealer) and a Gradi (outstanding developer of young talent).
Powell after 3yrs is 3rd longest manager in the top divisions. The job is now less a revolving door, more a scapegoat toboggan run. 41 clubs have sacked managers in the time. As most will have brought in “their” people & “their” players it is a huge financial drain on clubs. Today the focus on “the manager” borders on obsessional be it “messiah” or “pariah”.
The new model places the financial focus on each “player investment” maybe it is time to switch from the “cult of the football manager” and return the focus to where it once was – the players.
I expect most on here can detail the functions of recruiting, coaching, training, developing, enabling and directing football players. How you apportion the responsibilities to fulfil those functions maybe a challenge, but it will be key for Duchatelet & Powell.
For those who can recall the days before the Murray, Varney, Curbishley rise to the PL or the Sunley, Hill, Lawrence sojourn to the 1st division the RD message is not new. His clubs will live within their means.
He has the funds to enable the changes needed to facilitate a stable base for future growth & success. I sincerely hope he has access to the people & the skills to deliver that future.
He and we will need to be in it for the long term.
As my previous posts have shown, I believe RD's 'network' approach has a lot of merit. Yes, it is untried in football, but that doesn't mean it will not work.
It is a very similar philosophy to that of the company for which I worked for 3 decades before going out on my own. Leverage your global resources for the benefit of the company and staff. Move people around so that both they and the company benefit. Develop and utilise internal young staff rather than always looking on the market. Bring in outside resources as and when it will be beneficial. I learnt much more by having the opportunity to move around the company and work in dozens of countries around the world, as did many of my colleagues.
Is football any different to business? It is certainly more 'emotional' but you still need the basic building blocks to produce a success.
I like what I see so far with our new owners. Castigating them when they have only been in place for a few weeks makes no sense. Whenever my previous employers appointed new senior management, there was normally an unofficial '100-day' rule. We did not give knee-jerk reactions to the appointment, but gave them 100 days to have a strategy in place, establish effective teams, generate quick-wins, and define the priorities for the future.
As far as I can ascertain from the outside, this is exactly what RD is implementing. I am reasonably relaxed with progress so far and look forward to a very benefical future for CAFC.
@Grapevine and @Stonemuse, I do agree with a lot of what you outline, and would really like to see it come to fruition for the benefit not only of Charlton, but perhaps even football in general.
However, football is simply not comparable to business in certain ways. It is much more short-term and dependant on results week by week. I think it is very unfortunate, if not verging on negligent, that we are sleep walking towards relegation now this season, as I honestly believe it could have been avoided with relatively little investment. Football is the kind of "business" where you absolutely have to be ready to react to things immediately - your keeper gets injured, your captain gets sent off, your centre forward puts in a transfer request, your star youth player refuses the contract put in front of him...there is so much more volatility than in just about any other "business" I can think of.
In football you therefore need to have a very agile management team, backed up by serious knowledge and research, so that they are ready to cope with the eventualities thrown at them. The one bright spot at CAFC over the past three years is that we have had that with Powell, his coaching team and his scouting team. There has been plenty of evidence of it - getting in players overlooked by others (eg KMG and Morro), bringing the youth on and into the first team, putting short-term solutions into place when needed (keepers on loan). I am 100% certain that, at the start of the January transfer window, Powell knew exactly how and where he needed to strengthen the squad to provide the best possible chance of avoiding relegation, and he no doubt had his lists of targets ready depending on what budget might or might not be available. (I doubt selling Stephens and KMG was high on his list of priorities, though...)
So, fantastic, along comes a new owner promising financial stability. I appreciate said new owner would have a lot of things to sort out with "the deal". But this is football, so surely the number one priority is to meet with the manager and hear his plans? Then decide if you trust him enough to provide the additional, initial backing to strengthen the squad. Let's just secure our position this season. Let's see what this manager and his team are made of, and if they can deliver when given the backing over the next few months. But what does Roland do instead? Starts implementing his grand plan immediately, foisting players from the network into the squad, with Powell apparently having little say. Gradually it is coming to light that some of these players might not be what we need for a relegation battle, let alone the impact this will have had on morale of the coaching and scouting team - though being fantastic professionals, they all put on a brave face and make the best of it.
Instead of "investing" several hundred thousands of pounds in Polish Pete - who may be a good prospect long-term, but at the moment barely up to our under 21 standard - why on earth was this money not spent on letting Powell bring in targets he no doubt had already identified?
I am the kind of person who likes to see the big picture and the long term - not one for knee jerk reactions. But I also know from years of experience that in business, "If you snooze, you lose." I think that is even more the case in football...
Sorry @Weegie but I think you are doing RD a disservice here. Whether we are in the Championship or League One, there will be a plan of some kind in place I think. Now whether we agree with said plan, or even if it will work, is of course up in the air and open to debate. But to say we are just sleepwalking to relegation and totally unprepared for the consequences is foolish as far as I'm concerned. We might not like how he's going about it - but RD is playing the game his way, we must hope he's proved right in the end. If it goes wrong, it won't be because of failure to plan - it will be the plan failing, a different story entirely.
Three excellent posts from grapevine, newbie and weegie.
What it adds up to for me right now is that previously the club was being run down, we were broke and in debt, we were heading for relegation and possibly oblivion.
We may now still be heading for relegation, but not oblivion. The club isn't being run down, there is a plan (which is taking a bit of time to understand and get used to), and we at least know where the buck is stopping with regard to our debt.
Grapevine make a brilliant point regarding the old days being about the players more than the managers, and newbie about the fact that what we are risking is not because of a failure to plan, but the plan failing.
IF it fails.
Roland has got us to a better place than we were in before, and established some hope, and also some mystery. I think the idea that we should not make losses is right, Richard Murray reminded us of the losses at rival clubs. If you're not making losses, producing good young players without having to buy them all the time, you're less likely to go into administration.
The suggestion that Powell will need to be more of a Gradi than a Redknapp is true in my view. However the example of Guy Roux may be more accurate in regard to Roland's expectation of a manager/managers, coach/coaches. The key decision is whether Chris can, or wants to, become that kind of manager.
You can be a manager bouncing around clubs, reacting to success here, a crisis there, and yes the roller coaster can be fun. Having said that I wonder if Portsmouth fans, who are living that roller coaster are happy about things.
Unless you have a mega rich benefactor, then something like Roland's plan as it seems to be, is probably a good one. The test is how many of us are prepared to buy into it.
I'd be interested to hear what kind of company you worked for. I also worked for one which - claimed - to have the same global footprint and attitude to human resources which you describe. That is how I come to be in Prague, but the way in which it happened was far less smooth and thought through than the company would claim to the outside world. Similarly I have worked with companies such as Unilever who in the past really did have a global approach to management careers. I wouldn't go so far as to say its in tatters, but they could not make it work in changing global market conditions. Nevertheless my own former company, a global ad agency network is closer in business terms to a football club, because it's only resources are its people.
Now I look at the barriers to the network approach (and I know Weegie knows all about it too) and ask myself if RD is aware of these barriers. Because he has never done this before. He did not make his money in a people business. He may think he knows how global HR networks work, but i fear he looks at it from afar and thinks it is obvious. The devil however is in the detail.
Just as an example, there is a balance to make between the decisions of the network based management and the local management; which are in turn based on the knowledge and experience each set of managements brings. Neither side is always right. But it would be interesting to know the extent of "local management input" into the sale of Kermorgant.
Similarly I hope RD does not have the blasé approach to relegation exhibited by people on here. At least he might have an excuse. He may not yet have heard of Airman Brown. We on here have no such excuse, and we would do well to pay attention to his figures based arguments that show the likely financial cost of relegation.
If you really are convinced that RD came with a well though out plan, I would say that it is almost impossible for me to believe this. He only came across us early in December and completed the deal at lightning speed. For comparison it would take WPP six months on average to complete due diligence and thrash out a deal to buy a local advertising agency with a similar headcount and revenue as CAFC. on top of that he suddenly has five other clubs to think about. When, pray, did he sit down and work out this Grand Plan, and who assisted him with this?
There are a lot of things I like about what RD says, and has done, and I do not discount that some of his ideas may well have a lot of merit. However it is also clear that he does not easily listen to others counsel. I am worried that he is being too radical, too quickly, and is driven by conviction rather than sober analysis in this respect.
who decides where resources from the network of loans or scouts goes to i.e. new Messi crops up, which club does he end up at, surely all will want him - there must therefore be a hierarchy of some sort.
You can throw all sorts of business analogys at it, but the bottom line is pretty much non stop all clubs are looking to increase the quality of their labourforce, to maintain or improve their product, and will therefore be in competition with each other.
@Prague , obviously I am not convinced because I do not know ... my comment was that, 'As far as I can ascertain from the outside, this is exactly what RD is implementing.'
Am I being too optimistic? Possibly, but that is in my nature ... I believe in positivity of thought as a tool to success.
Bottom line, none of us know, and we have different perspectives based on our own experiences.
Incidentally, I worked (and still do independently) in trade and supply chain facilitation for a non-UK global company ... and the approach that I outlined did work, proven by the fact that over the last 25 years they have gone from being a domestic player in their own market to one with a network on every continent.
who decides where resources from the network of loans or scouts goes to i.e. new Messi crops up, which club does he end up at, surely all will want him - there must therefore be a hierarchy of some sort.
You can throw all sorts of business analogys at it, but the bottom line is pretty much non stop all clubs are looking to increase the quality of their labourforce, to maintain or improve their product, and will therefore be in competition with each other.
competition can be healthy ... and there does not always have to be a loser, win-win could be an option
Comments
Interestingly Richard Murray the other night discounted the value of 2,000 fans far further, equating it to the cost of one player. He did agree that being at the right end of the table helps build things but my simple point is that points add value and value adds points.
Now, and in the months and years to come, I believe that we should all be very clear on the numbers and values involved so that the fans can make their judgments on the business case(s) proposed.
I will just take the liberty of posting the private view of a well known Lifer, because I think he sums up the opposite viewpoint very well
we are all thinking there is a wholly professional machine and system in place, we just don't have the insider knowledge to confirm that. My fear is that it simply isn't as structured, thought out and long term planned as we are trying to guess. Some of his acquisitions simply don't make any sense.
Personally I remain somewhere in the middle, but I think we really have to examine how this thing is supposed to work, if we want to decide one way or another.
So what about the Spanish one...
I'm making no assumptions here, just offering explanations.
So what about the Spanish one...
PA - I think the Spanish club is the easiest to explain. He has purchased a cheap but relatively highly placed (2nd division) team in the capital city of the country that appears at the moment to have a conveyor belt of talent. The club (unlike all others) is overachieving in it's current position and therefore how much resistance will there be to it being a breeding ground for new talent or a testing ground for released players. Were better to send a young player to learn his skills (from the rest of the clubs)?
I have to admit that i am one of the ones who has assumed that there is a professional machine in place. Probably because I can't countenance there not being!
In this view of the strategy, synergies between sister Clubs are a "nice to have", an icing on the cake, rather than the main course; sister Clubs being connected by a common strategy, principally a focus on youth development, rather than being interdependent.
In reality there is, thus far, simply no evidence whatsoever of a grand plan; no Europe wide Director of Football, no Cruyff like transformation of youth development at each Club, just a few intra network loan deals which would not have required common ownership or oversight.
I suspect Duchatelet is making it up as he goes along. None of this suggests he won't be good for Charlton, of course, though I suspect he'll be unpredictable and, at times, controversial.
Could you tell us more about this club and Spanish football in general? I never realised it's a Madrid club. What sort of gates do they get, and roughly what sort of price do people pay to watch them?
What do you think is behind the rise of the 'conveyor belt of talent' in Spain?
And what about the TV money? I seem to remember reading that because there is no collective selling of TV rights, most of the top league clubs get very little, and Madrid and Barca make a fortune. So even if by some miracle Alcorcon got promoted, would it bring him much extra money, do you think?
I see what you mean about it being a willing feeder club.
I know nothing about Alcorcón other than they are really small. I have just looked them up and they are smaller than I suspected. Ground capacity is only 6k and whilst they are second div now they have been in the regionals until recently (4 x third divisions and 9 x regional fourth divs) I just think that there must be a chance for them to pick up Madrid, Atlético and even Getafe players. They have also just replaced their coach/manager!
If RD has bought Alcorcón to make money from TV then he is seriously wrong there is little money for the big clubs (outside Barca and Madrid). They have consistently finished in the top half of the second division for the past four seasons which would i would assume was down to good coaching as they have no money. I would imagine the good coaching is why they have been purchased!
Why does Spain produce such talent? I would have to say absolute love of keeping the ball, learning being more important than winning when younger, tons of qualified coaches. All that has probably always been there but I think Spain has undergone a rediscovery of confidence in itself as a nation (something it's politicians are trying really hard to destroy!) which is echoed and magnified in its national football team.
Could you imagine a couple or more of our youngest and best players spending a couple of years in Madrid learning about ball possession and angles, learning all the skills that are really hard to learn in competitive pro games in England. Also I could see a couple of really good young Spaniards learning about strength and not giving up attitudes from us (not really a fair exchange is it).
Billy
I've no idea what the margins are, but even if they are 100 per cent on food your 2,000 supporters would generate £2k per match = £46k per season.
The club pays commission to the programme sellers and there is a marginal cost to printing extra programmes, but let's say it makes £2 per extra unit. That's £4,000 x 0.25 x 23 = £23k. No VAT on programmes.
Even if there's a merchandise benefit, it's not going to exceed £50k because as with the kiosks many people never buy. I doubt if either my father or my brother have bought anything in the club shop since we returned to The Valley.
So in terms of revenue, it's ticket sales that matter most - first, second and third. It's not that the other revenue streams don't matter at all or should be ignored and they might, I accept, play a small part in retention, particularly of new supporters, but one extra ticket sale is vastly more significant.
The problem is that we will only be selling an average of 2,000 home match tickets in total at present and it's very hard to double that number at full price without offering something better on the pitch - and even when you do.
There are, however, many ways of selling discounted match tickets and their holders' spend at the ground - at least in catering - is likely to be the same as a full price ticket purchaser. But by definition you will get less revenue on average. Nevertheless, this is the most profitable route for the club.
In my view there is evidence of visionary thinking, even if it awaits more structure. I've said that this is developing in practice, I definitely agree that unpredictability and controversy are likely to form part of the outworking - but there will be positives as well, and if Peter Parsley's recruitment is any evidence at all, some money available to the clubs at the top of the triangle.
But there may be financial benefits too, such as differences in taxation, wages, and so on. Is there an opportunity to reduce overhead costs? And so on.
Mundell's right in that there's little clear evidence that all this has been thought through and documented in a strategy, but perhaps RD doesn't work that way. Doesn't mean he's not thinking it through either.
I really don't know if there is a fabulous strategy in place and if there is one if it will work or not. But if I had the money and the same strategy I would buy a team in Spain for the quality and in belguim for the work permits and the quality.
RD has been in charge for 7 weeks.
A "takeover" is no simple process especially one involving so convoluted a corporate structure, a swathe of “interested parties” (some in the BVI), across vendor & previous administrations, financial institutions & a host of creditors. Until you sort the business you cannot sort out the club.
“You cannot build tall buildings on small foundations”
The TJ legacy, a declining clubhouse “run” by a part time CEO, with 4/5ths playing staff & a management team due to leave in June, cannot be rebuilt in weeks. Immediate change was unrealistic. Those who wanted to leave (no matter their protestations) were let go. No club needs people who do not want to be there.
"I ask fans not to be mad if once in a while we sell a good player".
You can legitimately argue RD could have;
a) Done more to keep KMG but was KMG's decision more to do with CP?
b) Secured CP to a new contract (based on his record) but that presupposes the new structure will mirror the one where CP has delivered.
One can admire a persons’ work but be unsure of the best fit for them going forward. To commit to anyone without a clarity of role for the long term is dishonest and sends mixed messages. The future may present a very different workplace for CP.
“RD confirms discussions over new contract for Chris Powell” – “There's no doubt he's an extremely good coach. It's our desire to work with him.”
The RD strategy will unfold but to those fearing his approach I must pose a challenge, knowing our recent past, what are the sustainable alternatives for a club of our size?
The recent assertion, made by a respected contributor, KM was "naïve" in believing she could "balance the books", was more than telling. If this is the culture of those working "in the game" it explains a lot. In the real world I can but ask “Who is really the more naïve?” Look at the insanity at Fulham.
Brighton's £14mn loss for last years' "price of being competitive" poses the question how long can this go on? If others at the top of the Championship face comparable losses it’s circa £100mn lost for 1 seasons' trading - it is obscene. As I have said before it is a case of "the emperor has no clothes".
I understand why some wish to continue to operate in such a way because "everyone must be doing it". The Chinese do say "the path most trod is the path to happiness" but such path has failed us for too long and is unsustainable. Our recent history has seen years of pain clinging to a "failing business" plan with us regularly flirting with administration.
Pro football has pursued the growth of the elite for 30yrs, with home gate receipts retention, the split of media revenue, and marketing of clubs to global markets accentuating the rise of the few. It created such an attractive market it enticed others, with greater resources, to buy in. The world now owns the PL. A final distortion, the abolition of PL relegation, awaits.
What do you expect other owners to do? In what parallel universe do people work for a "business" with no expectation it might become self-sufficient?
Those viewing RD actions, in terms of this season need to await the bigger picture. Even our natural focus misconstrues our entry to the “plan”.
Owning Carl Zeiss, Ujpest, Alcorcon & others in Italy/ Portugal is no puzzle. Each is a low cost market entry into new markets providing the same grounding & presence in local markets as Tubize & STVV did in Belgium.
The odd one out is Charlton Athletic.
Were we in the initial UK purchase plan? Or did the price & contingency terms divert RD to us? Looking as his Tubize agreement, a key driver will have been our Academy & U21 profile. Our Cat.2 status is an issue but it is likely RD will protect this area of investment.
“It is definitely a point of attention and we are studying the possibility to upgrade it,” said the Belgian. “We have a very good academy, we are proud to have Cat. 2 already but it is an attention point. “The goal is to foster the academy of Charlton
The key personnel at SL are Sporting Director - JF de Sart (Belgian U21 coach 12yrs) & 1st team coach Luzon (ex-Israeli U21 coach). We are going to have to get used to an extreme focus on youth.
RDs’ expectation may be the fly in the ointment, with success at academy levels you expect several key players to “percolate” to the top. In 3yrs only Solly, Harriott & Cousins have progressed (Poyet is knocking on the door).
I imagine it is a regular topic of discussion.
To manage “the shop” player contracts will be long term, flexible to facilitate “internal” transfers, provide players an extended opportunity to develop, and security with the time & space to deliver playing & financial success for all parties.
The network offers broad development across a range of football philosophies.
I see an opportunity to build a new football club business model.
Each club operates as a unique “entity” with a specific management /coaching /academy structure
Player sourcing & financing will be via a “franchise” style organisation.
Transfers between the network clubs will be internal accounting negating any external levies.
Registrations/ contracts will be owned by each club under local FA control but managed via a central contracts function.
This allows a unique “view” of contract “investments” across the network.
The focus of the profit/loss equation switches from each club to each player spreading risk across circa 200 full & development contracts.
The central function takes a view as to how it defrays each “investment” cost.
A menu of costs & revenues can be apportioned to each club via a central billing function, addressing each core revenue, league table incentives, cup revenues etc., and FFP losses. For FFP, players have real and virtual salaries.
Such cost isolation clarifies the viability of each club “business unit”.
Central control allows economies across all trading including accounting, legal and IT. RD will already employ global legal, technical & marketing staff.
Crucial to the plan is the placing of the right people in the right positions.
If “the plan” is outside the norm, the roles to deliver it will be non-traditional - a diversion from the “celebrated UK football manager”. The UK manager role has grown over the years to a point it is now so diverse as to cater for a Redknapp (wheeler dealer) and a Gradi (outstanding developer of young talent).
Powell after 3yrs is 3rd longest manager in the top divisions. The job is now less a revolving door, more a scapegoat toboggan run. 41 clubs have sacked managers in the time. As most will have brought in “their” people & “their” players it is a huge financial drain on clubs. Today the focus on “the manager” borders on obsessional be it “messiah” or “pariah”.
The new model places the financial focus on each “player investment” maybe it is time to switch from the “cult of the football manager” and return the focus to where it once was – the players.
I expect most on here can detail the functions of recruiting, coaching, training, developing, enabling and directing football players. How you apportion the responsibilities to fulfil those functions maybe a challenge, but it will be key for Duchatelet & Powell.
For those who can recall the days before the Murray, Varney, Curbishley rise to the PL or the Sunley, Hill, Lawrence sojourn to the 1st division the RD message is not new. His clubs will live within their means.
He has the funds to enable the changes needed to facilitate a stable base for future growth & success. I sincerely hope he has access to the people & the skills to deliver that future.
He and we will need to be in it for the long term.
Grapevine49
As my previous posts have shown, I believe RD's 'network' approach has a lot of merit. Yes, it is untried in football, but that doesn't mean it will not work.
It is a very similar philosophy to that of the company for which I worked for 3 decades before going out on my own. Leverage your global resources for the benefit of the company and staff. Move people around so that both they and the company benefit. Develop and utilise internal young staff rather than always looking on the market. Bring in outside resources as and when it will be beneficial. I learnt much more by having the opportunity to move around the company and work in dozens of countries around the world, as did many of my colleagues.
Is football any different to business? It is certainly more 'emotional' but you still need the basic building blocks to produce a success.
I like what I see so far with our new owners. Castigating them when they have only been in place for a few weeks makes no sense. Whenever my previous employers appointed new senior management, there was normally an unofficial '100-day' rule. We did not give knee-jerk reactions to the appointment, but gave them 100 days to have a strategy in place, establish effective teams, generate quick-wins, and define the priorities for the future.
As far as I can ascertain from the outside, this is exactly what RD is implementing. I am reasonably relaxed with progress so far and look forward to a very benefical future for CAFC.
However, football is simply not comparable to business in certain ways. It is much more short-term and dependant on results week by week. I think it is very unfortunate, if not verging on negligent, that we are sleep walking towards relegation now this season, as I honestly believe it could have been avoided with relatively little investment. Football is the kind of "business" where you absolutely have to be ready to react to things immediately - your keeper gets injured, your captain gets sent off, your centre forward puts in a transfer request, your star youth player refuses the contract put in front of him...there is so much more volatility than in just about any other "business" I can think of.
In football you therefore need to have a very agile management team, backed up by serious knowledge and research, so that they are ready to cope with the eventualities thrown at them. The one bright spot at CAFC over the past three years is that we have had that with Powell, his coaching team and his scouting team. There has been plenty of evidence of it - getting in players overlooked by others (eg KMG and Morro), bringing the youth on and into the first team, putting short-term solutions into place when needed (keepers on loan). I am 100% certain that, at the start of the January transfer window, Powell knew exactly how and where he needed to strengthen the squad to provide the best possible chance of avoiding relegation, and he no doubt had his lists of targets ready depending on what budget might or might not be available. (I doubt selling Stephens and KMG was high on his list of priorities, though...)
So, fantastic, along comes a new owner promising financial stability. I appreciate said new owner would have a lot of things to sort out with "the deal". But this is football, so surely the number one priority is to meet with the manager and hear his plans? Then decide if you trust him enough to provide the additional, initial backing to strengthen the squad. Let's just secure our position this season. Let's see what this manager and his team are made of, and if they can deliver when given the backing over the next few months. But what does Roland do instead? Starts implementing his grand plan immediately, foisting players from the network into the squad, with Powell apparently having little say. Gradually it is coming to light that some of these players might not be what we need for a relegation battle, let alone the impact this will have had on morale of the coaching and scouting team - though being fantastic professionals, they all put on a brave face and make the best of it.
Instead of "investing" several hundred thousands of pounds in Polish Pete - who may be a good prospect long-term, but at the moment barely up to our under 21 standard - why on earth was this money not spent on letting Powell bring in targets he no doubt had already identified?
I am the kind of person who likes to see the big picture and the long term - not one for knee jerk reactions. But I also know from years of experience that in business, "If you snooze, you lose." I think that is even more the case in football...
What it adds up to for me right now is that previously the club was being run down, we were broke and in debt, we were heading for relegation and possibly oblivion.
We may now still be heading for relegation, but not oblivion. The club isn't being run down, there is a plan (which is taking a bit of time to understand and get used to), and we at least know where the buck is stopping with regard to our debt.
Grapevine make a brilliant point regarding the old days being about the players more than the managers, and newbie about the fact that what we are risking is not because of a failure to plan, but the plan failing.
IF it fails.
Roland has got us to a better place than we were in before, and established some hope, and also some mystery.
I think the idea that we should not make losses is right, Richard Murray reminded us of the losses at rival clubs. If you're not making losses, producing good young players without having to buy them all the time, you're less likely to go into administration.
The suggestion that Powell will need to be more of a Gradi than a Redknapp is true in my view. However the example of Guy Roux may be more accurate in regard to Roland's expectation of a manager/managers, coach/coaches. The key decision is whether Chris can, or wants to, become that kind of manager.
You can be a manager bouncing around clubs, reacting to success here, a crisis there, and yes the roller coaster can be fun. Having said that I wonder if Portsmouth fans, who are living that roller coaster are happy about things.
Unless you have a mega rich benefactor, then something like Roland's plan as it seems to be, is probably a good one. The test is how many of us are prepared to buy into it.
I'd be interested to hear what kind of company you worked for. I also worked for one which - claimed - to have the same global footprint and attitude to human resources which you describe. That is how I come to be in Prague, but the way in which it happened was far less smooth and thought through than the company would claim to the outside world. Similarly I have worked with companies such as Unilever who in the past really did have a global approach to management careers. I wouldn't go so far as to say its in tatters, but they could not make it work in changing global market conditions. Nevertheless my own former company, a global ad agency network is closer in business terms to a football club, because it's only resources are its people.
Now I look at the barriers to the network approach (and I know Weegie knows all about it too) and ask myself if RD is aware of these barriers. Because he has never done this before. He did not make his money in a people business. He may think he knows how global HR networks work, but i fear he looks at it from afar and thinks it is obvious. The devil however is in the detail.
Just as an example, there is a balance to make between the decisions of the network based management and the local management; which are in turn based on the knowledge and experience each set of managements brings. Neither side is always right. But it would be interesting to know the extent of "local management input" into the sale of Kermorgant.
Similarly I hope RD does not have the blasé approach to relegation exhibited by people on here. At least he might have an excuse. He may not yet have heard of Airman Brown. We on here have no such excuse, and we would do well to pay attention to his figures based arguments that show the likely financial cost of relegation.
If you really are convinced that RD came with a well though out plan, I would say that it is almost impossible for me to believe this. He only came across us early in December and completed the deal at lightning speed. For comparison it would take WPP six months on average to complete due diligence and thrash out a deal to buy a local advertising agency with a similar headcount and revenue as CAFC. on top of that he suddenly has five other clubs to think about. When, pray, did he sit down and work out this Grand Plan, and who assisted him with this?
There are a lot of things I like about what RD says, and has done, and I do not discount that some of his ideas may well have a lot of merit. However it is also clear that he does not easily listen to others counsel. I am worried that he is being too radical, too quickly, and is driven by conviction rather than sober analysis in this respect.
I would really love to be proven wrong.
You can throw all sorts of business analogys at it, but the bottom line is pretty much non stop all clubs are looking to increase the quality of their labourforce, to maintain or improve their product, and will therefore be in competition with each other.
Am I being too optimistic? Possibly, but that is in my nature ... I believe in positivity of thought as a tool to success.
Bottom line, none of us know, and we have different perspectives based on our own experiences.
Incidentally, I worked (and still do independently) in trade and supply chain facilitation for a non-UK global company ... and the approach that I outlined did work, proven by the fact that over the last 25 years they have gone from being a domestic player in their own market to one with a network on every continent.